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At least 127 records · Page 7

Exploring the Effects of Emplacement Conditions on Explosion P/S Ratios across Local to Regional Distances

High-frequency (~> 2 Hz) seismic P/S amplitude ratios are well-established as a discriminant to distinguish between natural earthquakes and underground explosions at regional distances (~200–1500 km). As research shifts toward identifying lower-yield events, work has begun to investigate the potential of this discriminant for use at local distances (<200 km), in which initial results raise questions about its effectiveness. Here, we utilize data from several chemical explosion experiment series at the Nevada National Security Site in southern Nevada in the United States to study explosion Pg/Lg ratios across the range of local to regional distances. Additionall, the experiments are conducted over differing emplacement conditions, with contrasting geologies and a variety of yields and depths of burial, including surface explosions. We first establish the similarities of Pg/Lg ratios from chemical explosions to those from historic nuclear tests and conclude that, as previous data have suggested, chemical explosion ratios are good proxies for nuclear tests. We then examine Pg/Lg ratios from the new experiment series as functions of distance, yield, depth of burial, and scaled depth of burial (SDOB). At far-local and regional distances, we observe consistently higher ratios from hard-rock explosions compared to ones in a weaker dry alluvium medium, consistent with prior regional distance results. No other trends with yield, depth of burial, or SDOB are strongly evident. Scatter in the observed ratios is very high, particularly at the shortest event-to-station distances, suggesting that small-scale path effects play a significant role. On average, the local distance explosion Pg/Lg ratios show remarkable consistency across all the variations in emplacement. Explosion source models will need to reproduce these results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mafic explosive volcanism at Llaima Volcano: 3D x-ray microtomography reconstruction of pyroclasts to constrain shallow conduit processes

Abstract Mafic volcanic activity is dominated by effusive to mildly explosive eruptions. Plinian and ignimbrite-forming mafic eruptions, while rare, are also possible; however, the conditions that promote such explosivity are still being explored. Eruption style is determined by the ability of gas to escape as magma ascends, which tends to be easier in low-viscosity, mafic magmas. If magma permeability is sufficiently high to reduce bubble overpressure during ascent, volatiles may escape from the magma, inhibiting violent explosive activity. In contrast, if the permeability is sufficiently low to retain the gas phase within the magma during ascent, bubble overpressure may drive magma fragmentation. Rapid ascent may induce disequilibrium crystallization, increasing viscosity and affecting the bubble network with consequences for permeability, and hence, explosivity. To explore the conditions that promote strongly explosive mafic volcanism, we combine microlite textural analyses with synchrotron x-ray computed microtomography of 10 pyroclasts from the 12.6 ka mafic Curacautín Ignimbrite (Llaima Volcano, Chile). We quantify microlite crystal size distributions (CSD), microlite number densities, porosity, bubble interconnectivity, bubble number density, and geometrical properties of the porous media to investigate the role of magma degassing processes at mafic explosive eruptions. We use an analytical technique to estimate permeability and tortuosity by combing the Kozeny-Carman relationship, tortuosity factor, and pyroclast vesicle textures. The groundmass of our samples is composed of up to 44% plagioclase microlites, > 85% of which are < 10 µm in length. In addition, we identify two populations of vesicles in our samples: (1) a convoluted interconnected vesicle network produced by extensive coalescence of smaller vesicles (> 99% of pore volume), and (2) a population of very small and completely isolated vesicles (< 1% of porosity). Computed permeability ranges from 3.0 × 10 −13 to 6.3 × 10 −12 m 2 , which are lower than the similarly explosive mafic eruptions of Tarawera (1886; New Zealand) and Etna (112 BC; Italy). The combination of our CSDs, microlite number densities, and 3D vesicle textures evidence rapid ascent that induced high disequilibrium conditions, promoting rapid syn-eruptive crystallization of microlites within the shallow conduit. We interpret that microlite crystallization increased viscosity while simultaneously forcing bubbles to deform as they grew together, resulting in the permeable by highly tortuous network of vesicles. Using the bubble number densities for the isolated vesicles (0.1-3 −3 × 10 4 bubbles per mm 3 ), we obtain a minimum average decompression rate of 1.4 MPa/s. Despite the textural evidence that the Curacautín magma reached the percolation threshold, we propose that rapid ascent suppressed outgassing and increased bubble overpressures, leading to explosive fragmentation. Further, using the porosity and permeability of our samples, we estimated that a bubble overpressure > 5 MPa could have been sufficient to fragment the Curacautín magma. Other mafic explosive eruptions report similar disequilibrium conditions induced by rapid ascent rate, implying that syn-eruptive disequilibrium conditions may control the explosivity of mafic eruptions more generally.

Valdivia, Pedro↗

Categorizing An Explosive Device by its Nuclear Signature (Rev. 1)

This report documents a study to eliminate ambiguity in identifying a very low-yield nuclear detonation in the early stages of the response to such an event. The ambiguity arises from the very similar explosive and radiation effects produced by three categories of explosive devices: An explosively driven radiological dispersal device (RDD) or an accidental explosion in which radiologic material is scattered by chemical explosives. A failed nuclear device in which nuclear material, such as uranium or plutonium, has been scattered by conventional explosives. A nuclear device that, in addition to scattering nuclear material, produced a very low-yield from nuclear fission. The study found that the properties of fission products provide a ready solution to the problem. The radiation dose rate from fission products that were produced in a nearly instantaneous “fission event” decreases extremely rapidly over the first eight hours after that event, whereas nuclear materials and common radiological materials produce an essentially constant dose rate. This contrast provides an unequivocal fission product signature. The measurements required to utilize this signature can be made by first responders with radiation detectors already in the field, on time scales of an hour, although later confirmation using more capable detectors, including spectroscopic capability, is advised. The process of categorizing an explosives-related incident, both pre- and post-detonation, can be represented as a Decision Tree. The Decision Tree illustrates the use of already-fielded radiation detectors to categorize incidents as likely to involve only conventional explosives, an explosively driven RDD, or a nuclear device. The identification of an explosion as a fission event is extremely important to evacuation planners. It has been shown that delayed evacuation after sheltering in place for up to 24 hours after a fission event has the potential to reduce radiation exposure to the affected public and responders by a factor of ten. Traditional evidence collection after a nuclear detonation is likely to be similarly delayed, as the value and urgency of collection efforts must be weighed against radiation and other hazardous exposure of the collectors. The evidence that survives the immediate effects of a nuclear detonation will, in many cases, still be available for collection once radiation levels have diminished to acceptable levels. Certain classes of evidence, notably information stored on digital media, may significantly degrade from exposure to post-detonation radiation fields. Technical nuclear forensics collections will be performed in all events with nuclear yield. Modification of the high-yield collection strategy may be necessary for a very low-yield device.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Onset of the Magnetic Explosion in Solar Flames and Coronal Mass Ejections

We present observations of the magnetic field configuration and its transformation in six solar eruptive events that show good agreement with the standard bipolar model for eruptive flares. The observations are X-ray images from the Yohkoh soft X-ray telescope (SXT) and magnetograms from Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory, interpreted together with the 1-8 Angstrom X-ray flux observed by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). The observations yield the following interpretations: (1) Each event is a magnetic explosion that occurs in an initially closed single bipole in which the core field is sheared and twisted in the shape of a sigmoid, having an oppositely curved elbow on each end. The arms of the opposite elbows are sheared past each other so that they overlap and are crossed low above the neutral line in the middle of the bipole. The elbows and arms seen in the SXT images are illuminated strands of the sigmoidal core field, which is a continuum of sheared/twisted field that fills these strands as well as the space between and around them; (2) Although four of the explosions are ejective (appearing to blow open the bipole) and two are confined (appearing to be arrested within the closed bipole), all six begin the same way. In the SXT images, the explosion begins with brightening and expansion of the two elbows together with the appearance of short bright sheared loops low over the neutral line under the crossed arms and, rising up from the crossed arms, long strands connecting the far ends of the elbows; and (3) All six events are single-bipole events in that during the onset and early development of the explosion they show no evidence for reconnection between the exploding bipole and any surrounding magnetic fields. We conclude that in each of our events the magnetic explosion was unleashed by runaway tether-cutting via implosive/explosive reconnection in the middle of the sigmoid, as in the standard model. The similarity of the onsets of the two confined explosions to the onsets of the four ejective explosions and their agreement with the model indicate that runaway reconnection inside a sheared core field can begin whether or not a separate system of overlying fields, or the structure of the bipole itself, allows the explosion to be ejective. Because this internal reconnection apparently begins at the very start of the sigmoid eruption and grows in step with the explosion, we infer that this reconnection is essential for the onset and growth of the magnetic explosion in eruptive flares and coronal mass ejections.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Predicting Large-scale Effects During Cookoff of Plastic-Bonded Explosives (PBX 9501 PBX 9502 and LX-14)

In this study, we have made reasonable cookoff predictions of large-scale explosive systems by using pressure-dependent kinetics determined from small-scale experiments. Scale-up is determined by properly accounting for pressure generated from gaseous decomposition products and the volume that these reactive gases occupy, e.g. trapped within the explosive, the system, or vented. The pressure effect on the decomposition rates has been determined for different explosives by using both vented and sealed experiments at low densities. Low-density explosives are usually permeable to decomposition gases and can be used in both vented and sealed configurations to determine pressure-dependent reaction rates. In contrast, explosives that are near the theoretical maximum density (TMD) are not as permeable to decomposition gases, and pressure-dependent kinetics are difficult to determine. Ignition in explosives at high densities can be predicted by using pressure-dependent rates determined from the low-density experiments as long as gas volume changes associated with bulk thermal expansion are also considered. In the current work, cookoff of the plastic-bonded explosives PBX 9501 and PBX 9502 is reviewed and new experimental work on LX-14 is presented. Reactive gases are formed inside these heated explosives causing large internal pressures. The pressure is released differently for each of these explosives. For PBX 9501, permeability is increased and internal pressure is relieved as the nitroplasticizer melts and decomposes. Internal pressure in PBX 9502 is relieved as the material is damaged by cracks and spalling. For LX-14, internal pressure is not relieved until the explosive thermally ignites. The current paper is an extension of work presented at the 26th ICDERS symposium [1].

42 ENGINEERING↗

Additive manufacturing of high explosives with inert dilution for wave shaping and detonation velocity grading

The performance of a high explosive charge is highly influenced by the detonation velocity and any inherent internal structure. Additively manufactured (AM) high explosive charges allow for a precisely engineered internal structure and the selective placement of discrete or graded volumes of a tailored material, which are unachievable by conventional means. The dilution of a solid explosive by an inert additive for detonation velocity reduction is herein evaluated for a method of material extrusion called a direct-ink-write AM, where an 1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazoctane-based ultraviolet -curable energetic-binder paste explosive was diluted by the inert density mock 5-iodo-2′-deoxyuridine for use in the manufacture of multi-material explosive charges. The explosive ink was characterized for printing by rheological and particle size measurements, and the detonation velocities for 0–40 wt. % inert diluent were found to have a continuous linear reduction in detonation velocity down to 14.3% difference. A two-component 3D plane wave explosive lens with 8.038 km/s “fast” and 7.491 km/s “slow” diluted ink in an internal cone demonstrated a reduced time of breakout at the output face from 361 to 53 ns. A linearly graded “fast–slow–fast” cylinder was successfully printed and fired, showing engineered control along the length of the charge as the detonation velocity dropped from 7.851 to 6.700 km/s and then recovered to 7.241 km/s. The extreme control over the internal composition of a high explosive charge via a dual-material extruder/mixer challenges conventional manufacturing approaches and opens new avenues for engineered detonation wavefronts, high explosive charge performance, and new applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pre-Shot Simulations of Near-Field and Far-Field Ground Motion for the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Explosions at the Climax Stock, Nevada National Security Site: SPE3

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is designed to improve ground motion prediction capabilities for underground nuclear testing through the development of new physics-based models together with validation via new chemical explosion data. The SPE shots consist of different size and depth chemical explosions in a granite borehole at the Climax Stock on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The third shot in the series (SPE3) will be the same size (1000 kg TNT equivalent) and depth (45 m canister centroid) as the previous shot (SPE2). The main purpose of the SPE3 is to investigate the effects of the damage zone caused by the SPE2 chemical explosion on the SPE3 explosion, keeping all other parameters (e.g. size, depth, explosive type) the same. This SPE3 pre-shot report addresses progress made in simulation of the expected wavefield in the both the near- and the far-field. In this report we consider the far-field to be where seismic wave motion can be characterized by elastic or visco-elastic approximations, in contrast to the near-field where other, often non-linear effects, play a major role. The current simulations build on previous work from the SPE1 and SPE2 shots. The simulations are intended to highlight differences between SPE2 and SPE3 using a variety to approximations intended to mimic the expected effect of the damage zone. The simplest physics of damage zone effects suggest changes in the source region material properties (density, velocity), and in the yield strength (coupling) of the rock, should both impact the far-field signal. We can illustrate this in a simplistic way for P-waves in Figure A using the empirical Mueller-Muphy (1971) far-field explosion model (MM). First if the SPE2 explosion-induced damage reduces velocities and densities without affecting the yield strength or coupling, then by energy conservation the amplitudes for SPE 3 would increase as shown in the top of Figure A. Similarly if the explosion induced damage increased density (say by compacting pore space) the amplitude would decrease. This impedance effect, where the product of the density, wave-velocity, and ground-velocity squared is conserved, is well known. The second and harder effect to quantify, are changes in the energy coupling or yield strength. In the simple MM model this is represented by the coupling factor between cavity radius and yield. If we assume the granite was slightly weakened by SPE2 such that the cavity radius increases slightly then the overall amplitudes of SPE3 decrease relative to SPE2 as shown in the bottom of Figure A. In reality both effects, may exist due to the damage zone, and furthermore we know they are interrelated in complex ways. For S-waves we expect even more complex effects due to motion on joints and faults. For this reason we are developing physics-based near field simulation models coupled to far-field propagation codes to predict the overall effects of changes in the source emplacement region on observed signals. Near-field simulations have been performed using the Eulerian code (GEODYN). An ensemble model, calibrated to match records from past large-scale nuclear events is used. Both 2D axisymmetric (no faults) and fully three-dimensional GEODYN calculations (with /without faults) were conducted in which the damage zones sustained by SPE2 are retained as the initial condition for the SPE3 calculations. The results indicate that the waveform peak amplitudes are slightly decayed since the ensemble model includes no softening mechanism. The pulse widths are reduced, indicating the energy is dissipated more by the damage zone as expected. The dominant motions calculated in all the scenarios are spherically symmetric and non-spherical components are small as seen for the SPE2 calculations. The arrival time of the SPE3 waveform at the boreholes is shorter than SPE2 due to compaction during the previous explosion. As shown in the SPE 1 and 2 observations shear waves are generated, indicating the potential contributions from the induced motion on distributed joints. The effects of joints are evaluated using the Lagrangian hydrocode (GEODYN-L), which was benchmarked against the GEODYN calculations for the ensemble model. A new granite model calibrated for samples from the SPE site is used. The new model includes effects of poroelasticity and water saturation and may be scaled allowing application to both small and large scales. Parametric tests were performed to evaluate the effect of joints within the granite and the results demonstrate that in situ joints introduce anisotropy and significant tangential motions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Onset of the Magnetic Explosion in Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

We present observations of the magnetic field configuration and its transformation in six solar eruptive events that show good agreement with the Hirayama-Shibata model for eruptive flares. The observations arc X-ray images from the Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) and magnetograms from Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory, interpreted together with the 1-8 Angstrom X-ray flux observed by GOES. The observations show: 1. Each event is a magnetic explosion that occurs in an initially closed magnetic bipole in which the core field is sheared and twisted in the shape of a sigmoid, having an oppositely curved elbow on each end. The arms of the opposite elbows are sheared past each other so that they overlap and are crossed low above the neutral line in the middle of the bipole. 2. Although four of the explosions arc ejective (blow open the bipole) and two are confined (arc arrested within the closed bipole), all six begin the same way. In the SXT iniages, the explosion begins with brightening and expansion of the two elbows together with the appearance of short bright sheared loops low over the neutral line under the crossed arms and, rising up from the crossed arms, long strands connecting the far ends of the elbows. 3. All six events arc single-bipole events in that during the onset and early development of the explosion they show no evidence for reconnection between the exploding bipole and any surrounding magnetic fields. We conclude that in each of our events the magnetic explosion was unleashed by runaway tether-cutting via implosive/explosive rcconnection in the middle of the sigmoid, as in the Hirayama-Shibata model. The similarity of the onsets of the two confined explosions to the onsets of the four ejective explosions and their agreement with the model indicate that runaway reconnection inside a sheared core field can begin whether or not the overlying fields (the envelope field and contiguous fields that press down on the envelope) allow the explosion to be ejective. We consider the implications ofthis for the unleashing of magnetic explosions in field configurations composed of to or more impacted bipoles.

Moore, R. L.↗

An Empirical Non-TNT Approach to Launch Vehicle Explosion Modeling

In an effort to increase crew survivability from catastrophic explosions of Launch Vehicles (LV), a study was conducted to determine the best method for predicting LV explosion environments in the near field. After reviewing such methods as TNT equivalence, Vapor Cloud Explosion (VCE) theory, and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), it was determined that the best approach for this study was to assemble all available empirical data from full scale launch vehicle explosion tests and accidents. Approximately 25 accidents or full-scale tests were found that had some amount of measured blast wave, thermal, or fragment explosion environment characteristics. Blast wave overpressure was found to be much lower in the near field than predicted by most TNT equivalence methods. Additionally, fragments tended to be larger, fewer, and slower than expected if the driving force was from a high explosive type event. In light of these discoveries, a simple model for cryogenic rocket explosions is presented. Predictions from this model encompass all known applicable full scale launch vehicle explosion data. Finally, a brief description of on-going analysis and testing to further refine the launch vehicle explosion environment is discussed.

Blackwood, James M.↗

An Interim Set of TNT Curves for LOX/LNG Explosions

Space launch companies are actively developing, or in some cases have already developed, new vehicles that use large quantities of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid natural gas (LNG) propellants. This propellant mixture currently lacks sound/verified explosive safety standards for use in explosive siting and flight safety analysis. In the U.S., multiple government and commercial organizations have conducted limited testing, or are preparing to conduct tests, intended to provide a sound technical basis for LOX/LNG explosive standards applicable to space launch vehicle ground and flight operations. The limited testing and analysis conducted so far indicates the potential to produce extremely energetic explosions due to the miscibility of LOX/LNG (methane), a unique feature relative to previously used propellant mixtures such as hydrogen/oxygen or kerosene/oxygen. MOX is a homogenous mixture of methane and oxygen that is possible because of methane’s 100% miscibility in LOX. Preliminary testing by N2L, Inc. described in this paper shows that it is possible to form MOX with a variety of mixing methods, and that MOX is a sensitive high explosive capable of producing overpressures greater than comparable masses of C-4. The limited amount and quality of large-scale LOX/LNG explosive test data, and the potential formation of high-explosive MOX, create significant unknowns in the determination of hazard areas (cleared of the public) for ground operations (such as a static fire test) and flights of launch vehicles with LOX/LNG propellant. This paper will review the methods used by NASA to develop and validate the LOX/LH2 blast model using large-scale explosive test programs such as Project PYRO, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI), and the Large-Scale Hydrogen-Oxygen Explosion (LSHOE) tests. This paper will describe how the same process was used to prepare an interim LOX/LNG blast model that applies to various LV failure scenarios and conservatively accounts for potential MOX formation. This paper also summarizes past and future testing and modeling efforts funded by a consortium of NASA, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US Space Force (USSF). These test programs should be concluded within the next 3 years and are intended to provide empirical data for model verification and validation.

Liquid Oxygen↗

An Interim Set of TNT Curves for LOX/LNG Explosions

Space launch companies are actively developing, or in some cases have already developed, new vehicles that use large quantities of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid natural gas (LNG) propellants. This propellant mixture currently lacks sound/verified LOX/LNG explosive safety standards for use in explosive siting and flight safety analysis. In the U.S., multiple government and commercial organizations have conducted limited testing, or are preparing to conduct tests, intended to provide a sound technical basis for explosive standards applicable to space launch vehicle ground and flight operations. The limited testing and analysis conducted so far indicates the potential to produce extremely energetic explosions due to the miscibility of LOX/LNG (methane), a unique feature relative to previously used propellant mixtures such as hydrogen/oxygen or kerosene/oxygen. MOX is a homogenous mixture of methane and oxygen that is possible because of methane’s 100% miscibility in LOX. Preliminary testing by N2L, Inc. described in this paper shows that it is possible to form MOX with a variety of mixing methods, and that MOX is a sensitive high explosive capable of producing overpressures greater than comparable masses of C-4. The limited amount and quality of large-scale LOX/LNG explosive test data, and the potential formation of high-explosive MOX, create significant unknowns in the determination of hazard areas (cleared of the public) for ground operations (such as a static fire test) and flights of launch vehicles with LOX/LNG propellant. This paper will review the methods used by NASA to develop and validate the LOX/LH2 blast model using large-scale explosive test programs such as Project PYRO, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI), and the Large-Scale Hydrogen-Oxygen Explosion (LSHOE) tests. This paper will describe how the same process was used to prepare an interim LOX/LNG blast model that applies to various LV failure scenarios and conservatively accounts for potential MOX formation. This paper also summarizes past and future testing and modeling efforts funded by a consortium of NASA, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US Space Force (USSF). These test programs should be concluded within the next 3 years and are intended to provide empirical data for model verification and validation.

Liquid Oxygen↗

Relationship between pressure and reaction violence in thermal explosions

Reaction violence of a thermal explosion is determined by the energy release rate of the explosive and the coupling of that energy to the case and surroundings. For the HMX and TATB based secondary high explosives studied, we have observed that temperature controls the time to explosion and pressure controls the final energy release rate subsequent to ignition. Pressure measurements in the thermal explosion regime have been notoriously difficult to make due to the extreme rise in temperature which is also occurring during a thermal explosion. We have utilized several different pressure measurement techniques for several different secondary high explosives. These techniques include commercially available piezoelectric and piezoresistive sensors which we have utilized in the low pressure (sub 30 MPa) range of PBX 9502 thermal explosions, and fiber Bragg grating sensors for the higher pressure range (up to GPa) for PBX9501 experiments. In this talk, we will compare the measurement techniques and discuss the pressures measured for the different formulations studied. Simultaneous x-ray radiography measurements of burn velocity will also be shown and correlations between pressure, burn velocity, and reaction violence will be discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Relative Source Time Functions, Spectral Ratios, and Near‐Source Spallation in the Source Physics Experiment Phase I Chemical Explosions

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I was composed of six chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Sites (NNSS) between 2011 and 2016. The experiment provided a robust set of dense, local to regional distance observations suitable for characterizing shallow chemical explosions located within the same borehole. We investigate the time-dependent source processes of each chemical explosion using Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) estimation, derived from five linear seismometer profiles located between 100 and 2000 m of the shot location. The RSTF estimate provide a detailed characterization of each chemical explosion's time-history. Subsequent modeling efforts suggest these measurements may be useful for precise characterization of explosion processes and spallation. RSTF estimation allows us to expand our understanding of the SPE Phase I chemical explosion series. Application of these techniques contributes to our understanding of explosion source physics and facilitates future applications to additional seismic source experiments and characterization of explosion phenomenology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Empirical Acoustic Source Model for Chemical Explosions in Air

Chemical explosions generate pressure disturbances in air that radiate as nonlinear shock waves near the source and transition into acoustic waves with distance. Because low-frequency acoustic waves generally travel large distances without significant loss of energy, they are often used for explosion monitoring and yield estimation. However, quantitative relationships between acoustic energy and explosion yields are required for accurate yield estimation. Here, we develop an empirical acoustic source model for chemical explosions from experimental data. The empirical model returns the acoustic pressure waveform for the detonation of 1 kg of trinitrotoluene, which is conventionally used to represent the explosive release of 4.184 MJ of explosion energy. The full-waveform model can be used to predict acoustic signals for an arbitrary yield of a high-explosive detonation based on the standard scaling law and to estimate acoustic energies in a specific frequency range. We evaluate the accuracy of the acoustic source model independently by estimating the yield of other explosive events that are not included in the model development. Finally, statistical characteristics of the model and their implications for the uncertainty quantification of estimated yields are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Shear-Wave Radiation Patterns from Explosive and Earthquake Sources in Scattering, Heterogeneous Media

Distinguishing whether a seismic event is an earthquake or an explosion is a core problem in explosion monitoring. For simplistic models, earthquakes produce a predictable S-wavefield based on their radiation pattern, while an explosion produces no S-wavefield. However, observations from nuclear tests show that explosions can produce significant S-wave energy on both horizontal components. We perform numerical experiments using SPECFEM to constrain when an S-wavefield generated from an explosion might differ from one produced by an earthquake. We generate the S-wavefield for our explosions by placing the source location within a small region consisting of large velocity heterogeneities. For the 2D cases investigated here, a crucial condition is that the size of the region of heterogeneities must be much smaller (approximately 1/12th) than the minimum wavelength of the wavefield for our simulation setups. We investigate both isotropic heterogeneities and anisotropic heterogeneities. Initial results demonstrate that the heterogeneous region lowers the P/S amplitude ratios of an explosion. The presence of strong anisotropic heterogeneities near the source can also produce an S-wavefield with similar amplitudes to the P-wavefield. Lastly, we show that S-wave polarization angles vary as a function of azimuth and distance for explosive sources in the presence of small-scale heterogeneities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗