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At least 127 records · Page 7

Concepts for a theoretical and experimental study of lifting rotor random loads and vibrations (the effects of some rotor feedback systems on rotor-body dynamics), Phase 7-A

The effects of three gyroless rotor feedback systems: (1) coning feedback, (2) proportional tilting feedback, and (3) a combination of these on the rotor-body dynamics of hingeless rotorcraft are studied with a simplified analytical model in the advance ratio range from 0 to .8. Combinations of feedback phase angles and control phase angles are selected to minimize control cross coupling and control sensitivity changes between low and high speed flight. For the feedback systems thus selected the effects of feedback gain and control actuator time lag on the stability both with fixed hub and in free flight is studied, whereby the rotorcraft is free in pitch, roll and vertical motion but otherwise restrained. For the free flight is studied, whereby the rotorcraft is free in pitch, roll and vertical motion but otherwise restrained. For the free flight conditions the effects of a horizontal tail are also determined in itself and in combination with the rotor feedback systems.

Hohenemser, K. H.↗

Cloud Radiation Forcings and Feedbacks: General Circulation Model Tests and Observational Validation

Using an atmospheric general circulation model (the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM2), the effects on climate sensitivity of several different cloud radiation parameterizations have been investigated. In addition to the original cloud radiation scheme of CCM2, four parameterizations incorporating prognostic cloud water were tested: one version with prescribed cloud radiative properties and three other versions with interactive cloud radiative properties. The authors' numerical experiments employ perpetual July integrations driven by globally constant sea surface temperature forcings of two degrees, both positive and negative. A diagnostic radiation calculation has been applied to investigate the partial contributions of high, middle, and low cloud to the total cloud radiative forcing, as well as the contributions of water vapor, temperature, and cloud to the net climate feedback. The high cloud net radiative forcing is positive, and the middle and low cloud net radiative forcings are negative. The total net cloud forcing is negative in all of the model versions. The effect of interactive cloud radiative properties on global climate sensitivity is significant. The net cloud radiative feedbacks consist of quite different shortwave and longwave components between the schemes with interactive cloud radiative properties and the schemes with specified properties. The increase in cloud water content in the warmer climate leads to optically thicker middle- and low-level clouds and in turn to negative shortwave feedbacks for the interactive radiative schemes, while the decrease in cloud amount simply produces a positive shortwave feedback for the schemes with a specified cloud water path. For the longwave feedbacks, the decrease in high effective cloudiness for the schemes without interactive radiative properties leads to a negative feedback, while for the other cases, the longwave feedback is positive. These cloud radiation parameterizations are empirically validated by using a single-column diagnostic model. together with measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Combined Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The inclusion of prognostic cloud water produces a notable improvement in the realism of the parameterizations, as judged by these observations. Furthermore, the observational evidence suggests that deriving cloud radiative properties from cloud water content and microphysical characteristics is a promising route to further improvement.

Lee,Wan-Ho↗

Hybrid Active/Passive Control of Sound Radiation from Panels with Constrained Layer Damping and Model Predictive Feedback Control

There has been considerable interest over the past several years in applying feedback control methods to problems of structural acoustics. One problem of particular interest is the control of sound radiation from aircraft panels excited on one side by a turbulent boundary layer (TBL). TBL excitation appears as many uncorrelated sources acting on the panel, which makes it difficult to find a single reference signal that is coherent with the excitation. Feedback methods have no need for a reference signal, and are thus suited to this problem. Some important considerations for the structural acoustics problem include the fact that the required controller bandwidth can easily extend to several hundred Hertz, so a digital controller would have to operate at a few kilohertz. In addition, aircraft panel structures have a reasonably high modal density over this frequency range. A model based controller must therefore handle the modally dense system, or have some way to reduce the bandwidth of the problem. Further complicating the problem is the fact that the stiffness and dynamic properties of an aircraft panel can vary considerably during flight due to altitude changes resulting in significant resonant frequency shifts. These considerations make the tradeoff between robustness to changes in the system being controlled and controller performance especially important. Recent papers concerning the design and implementation of robust controllers for structural acoustic problems highlight the need to consider both performance and robustness when designing the controller. While robust control methods such as H1 can be used to balance performance and robustness, their implementation is not easy and requires assumptions about the types of uncertainties in the plant being controlled. Achieving a useful controller design may require many tradeoff studies of different types of parametric uncertainties in the system. Another approach to achieving robustness to plant changes is to make the controller adaptive. For example, a mathematical model of the plant could be periodically updated as the plant changes, and the feedback gains recomputed from the updated model. To be practical, this approach requires a simple plant model that can be updated quickly with reasonable computational requirements. A recent paper by the authors discussed one way to simplify a feedback controller, by reducing the number of actuators and sensors needed for good performance. The work was done on a tensioned aircraft-style panel excited on one side by TBL flow in a low speed wind tunnel. Actuation was provided by a piezoelectric (PZT) actuator mounted on the center of the panel. For sensing, the responses of four accelerometers, positioned to approximate the response of the first radiation mode of the panel, were summed and fed back through the controller. This single input-single output topology was found to have nearly the same noise reduction performance as a controller with fifteen accelerometers and three PZT patches. This paper extends the previous results by looking at how constrained layer damping (CLD) on a panel can be used to enhance the performance of the feedback controller thus providing a more robust and efficient hybrid active/passive system. The eventual goal is to use the CLD to reduce sound radiation at high frequencies, then implement a very simple, reduced order, low sample rate adaptive controller to attenuate sound radiation at low frequencies. Additionally this added damping smoothes phase transitions over the bandwidth which promotes robustness to natural frequency shifts. Experiments were conducted in a transmission loss facility on a clamped-clamped aluminum panel driven on one side by a loudspeaker. A generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm, which is suited to online adaptation of its parameters, was used in single input-single output and multiple input-single output configurations. Because this was a preliminary look at the potential constrained layer damping for adaptive control, static feedback control with no online adaptation was used. Two configurations of CLD in addition to a bare panel configuration were studied. For each CLD configuration, two sensor arrangements for the feedback controller were compared. The first arrangement used fifteen accelerometers on the panel to estimate the responses of the first six radiation modes of the panel. The second sensor arrangement was simpler, using the summed responses of only four accelerometers to approximate the response of the first radiation mode of the panel. In all cases a PZT patch was mounted at the center of the panel for control input. The performance of the controller was quantified using the responses of the fifteen accelerometers on the panel to estimate radiated sound power. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the GPC algorithm and the experimental setup. The experimental results are discussed next, comparing the CLD and sensor configurations, followed by discussion and conclusions.

Cabell, Randolph H.↗

Observational evidence against strongly stabilizing tropical cloud feedbacks

In this paper, we present a method to attribute cloud radiative feedbacks to convective processes, using subcloud layer buoyancy as a diagnostic of stable and deep convective regimes. Applying this approach to tropical remote sensing measurements over years 2000–2016 shows that an inferred negative short-term cloud feedback from deep convection was nearly offset by a positive cloud feedback from stable regimes. The net cloud feedback was within statistical uncertainty of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with historical forcings, with discrepancies in the partitioning of the cloud feedback into convective regimes. Compensation between high-cloud responses to tropics-wide warming in stable and unstable regimes resulted in smaller net changes in high-cloud fraction with warming. In addition, deep convection and associated high clouds set in at warmer temperatures in response to warming, as a consequence of nearly invariant subcloud buoyancy. Lastly, this invariance further constrained the magnitude of cloud radiative feedbacks and is consistent with climate model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time-Dependent Cryospheric Longwave Surface Emissivity Feedback in the Community Earth System Model

Frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit different longwave surface emissivities with different spectral characteristics, and outgoing longwave radiation and cooling rates are reduced for unfrozen scenes relative to frozen ones. In this paper physically realistic modeling of spectrally resolved surface emissivity throughout the coupled model components of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is advanced, and implications for model high-latitude biases and feedbacks are evaluated. It is shown that despite a surface emissivity feedback amplitude that is, at most, a few percent of the surface albedo feedback amplitude, the inclusion of realistic, harmonized longwave, spectrally resolved emissivity information in CESM1.2.2 reduces wintertime Arctic surface temperature biases from -7.2 ± 0.9 K to -1.1 ± 1.2 K, relative to observations. The bias reduction is most pronounced in the Arctic Ocean, a region for which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models exhibit the largest mean wintertime cold bias, suggesting that persistent polar temperature biases can be lessened by including this physically based process across model components. The ice emissivity feedback of CESM1.2.2 is evaluated under a warming scenario with a kernel-based approach, and it is found that emissivity radiative kernels exhibit water vapor and cloud cover dependence, thereby varying spatially and decreasing in magnitude over the course of the scenario from secular changes in atmospheric thermodynamics and cloud patterns. Finally, accounting for the temporally varying radiative responses can yield diagnosed feedbacks that differ in sign from those obtained from conventional climatological feedback analysis methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Residential electricity conservation in response to auto-generated, multi-featured, personalized eco-feedback designed for large scale applications with utilities

While past research has shown that providing residents with feedback about their electricity usage can reduce demand and its associated environmental burdens, some questions remain regarding what makes such feedback most effective. We followed the electricity usage of 36 residents who each received 14 feedback messages over 2 months. Using approaches borrowed from Natural-Language-Processing, feedbacks were generated automatically, using 10 features in random combinations. Unlike in previous studies, each resident received varying types of messages over time. In 504 observations, the average prompted reduction in electricity usage was 11 ± 3%, compared to a control group of 89 residents who received no messages. Feedback types prompting the largest reductions were self-comparisons with one’s own earlier usage (average reduction 14%) and messages of high variety from one feedback-cycle to the next (average reduction 16%). Comparisons with neighbors did not prompt higher reductions on average. Instead, they prompted reductions only when a resident’s recent usage happened to be higher than the average usage of neighbors, and increases when the reverse was true. Finally, this behavior was exhibited by all residents and is likely explained by a norm-conforming mean reversion of residents to their neighbors’ average usage, rather than an anti-conform “boomerang” behavior previously suggested in similar contexts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Relationships between CO 2 , thermodynamic limits on silicate weathering, and the strength of the silicate weathering feedback

Recent studies have suggested that thermodynamic limitations on chemical weathering rates exert a first-order control on riverine solute fluxes and by extension, global chemical weathering rates. As such, these limitations may play a prominent role in the regulation of carbon dioxide levels (pCO 2 ) over geologic timescales by constraining the maximum global weathering flux. In this study, we develop a theoretical scaling relationship between equilibrium solute concentrations and pCO 2 based on equilibrium constants and reaction stoichiometry relating primary mineral dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation. Here, we test this theoretical scaling relationship against reactive transport simulations of chemical weathering profiles under open-and closed-system conditions, representing partially and fully water-saturated regolith, respectively. Under open-system conditions, equilibrium bicarbonate concentrations vary as a power-law function of pCO 2 (y =kx n )where nis dependent on reaction stoichiometry and kis dependent on both reaction stoichiometry and the equilibrium constant. Under closed-system conditions, bicarbonate concentrations vary linearly with pCO 2 at low values and approach open-system scaling at high pCO 2 . To describe the potential role of thermodynamic limitations in the global silicate weathering feedback, we develop a new mathematical framework to assess weathering feedback strength in terms of both (1) steady-state atmospheric pCO 2 concentrations, and (2) susceptibility to secular changes in degassing rates and transient carbon cycle perturbations, which we term 1st and 2nd order feedback strength, respectively. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results for the effects of vascular land plant evolution on feedback strength, the potential role of vegetation in controlling modern solute fluxes, and the application of these frameworks to a more complete functional description of the silicate weathering feedback. Most notably, the dependence of equilibrium solute concentrations on pCO 2 may represent a direct weathering feedback largely independent of climate and modulated by belowground organic carbon respiration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

E3SM‐GCAM: A Synchronously Coupled Human Component in the E3SM Earth System Model Enables Novel Human‐Earth Feedback Research

Abstract Modeling human‐environment feedbacks is critical for assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under a changing climate. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) now includes a human component, with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) at its core, that is synchronously coupled with the land and atmosphere components through the E3SM coupling software. Terrestrial productivity is passed from E3SM to GCAM to make climate‐responsive land use and CO 2 emission projections for the next 5‐year period, which are interpolated and passed to E3SM annually. Key variables affected by the incorporation of these feedbacks include land use/cover change, crop prices, terrestrial carbon, local surface temperature, and climate extremes. Regional differences are more pronounced than global differences because the effects are driven primarily by differences in land use. This novel system enables a new type of scenario development and provides a powerful modeling framework that facilitates the addition of other feedbacks between these models. This system has the potential to explore how human responses to climate change impacts in a variety of sectors, including heating/cooling energy demand, water management, and energy production, may alter emissions trajectories and Earth system changes. Plain Language Summary Earth system models help us understand how humans are changing the climate. Currently, these models do not include human systems, so predetermined greenhouse gas, aerosol, and land use change data are input to these models. These data do not reflect human responses to changes projected by Earth system models. We have added a human component to an Earth system model to represent human responses to environmental change and calculate corresponding greenhouse gas and land use change data instead of using predetermined data. Including this human component changes projections of land use, land carbon storage, and regional climate. Key Points We have incorporated a novel, advanceable human component in an Earth system model to simulate human‐Earth feedbacks Including terrestrial productivity feedbacks from the Earth to the human systems affects land change, crop prices, carbon, and climate Regional effects of including terrestrial productivity feedbacks are greater than global effects because land change is the main driver

E3SM↗

BLOWIN' IN THE WIND: BOTH ''NEGATIVE'' AND ''POSITIVE'' FEEDBACK IN AN OBSCURED HIGH-z QUASAR

Quasar feedback in the form of powerful outflows is invoked as a key mechanism to quench star formation in galaxies, preventing massive galaxies to overgrow and producing the red colors of ellipticals. On the other hand, some models are also requiring ''positive'' active galactic nucleus feedback, inducing star formation in the host galaxy through enhanced gas pressure in the interstellar medium. However, finding observational evidence of the effects of both types of feedback is still one of the main challenges of extragalactic astronomy, as few observations of energetic and extended radiatively driven winds are available. Here we present SINFONI near infrared integral field spectroscopy of XID2028, an obscured, radio-quiet z = 1.59 QSO detected in the XMM-COSMOS survey, in which we clearly resolve a fast (1500 km s{sup –1}) and extended (up to 13 kpc from the black hole) outflow in the [O III] lines emitting gas, whose large velocity and outflow rate are not sustainable by star formation only. The narrow component of Hα emission and the rest frame U-band flux from Hubble Space Telescope/Advanced Camera for Surveys imaging enable to map the current star formation in the host galaxy: both tracers independently show that the outflow position lies in the center of an empty cavity surrounded by star forming regions on its edge. The outflow is therefore removing the gas from the host galaxy (''negative feedback''), but also triggering star formation by outflow induced pressure at the edges (''positive feedback''). XID2028 represents the first example of a host galaxy showing both types of feedback simultaneously at work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STAR FORMATION IN DISK GALAXIES. III. DOES STELLAR FEEDBACK RESULT IN CLOUD DEATH?

Stellar feedback, star formation, and gravitational interactions are major controlling forces in the evolution of giant molecular clouds (GMCs). To explore their relative roles, we examine the properties and evolution of GMCs forming in an isolated galactic disk simulation that includes both localized thermal feedback and photoelectric heating. The results are compared with the three previous simulations in this series, which consists of a model with no star formation, star formation but no form of feedback, and star formation with photoelectric heating in a set with steadily increasing physical effects. We find that the addition of localized thermal feedback greatly suppresses star formation but does not destroy the surrounding GMC, giving cloud properties closely resembling the run in which no stellar physics is included. The outflows from the feedback reduce the mass of the cloud but do not destroy it, allowing the cloud to survive its stellar children. This suggests that weak thermal feedback such as the lower bound expected for a supernova may play a relatively minor role in the galactic structure of quiescent Milky-Way-type galaxies, compared to gravitational interactions and disk shear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STAR CLUSTER FORMATION WITH STELLAR FEEDBACK AND LARGE-SCALE INFLOW

During star cluster formation, ongoing mass accretion is resisted by stellar feedback in the form of protostellar outflows from the low-mass stars and photo-ionization and radiation pressure feedback from the massive stars. We model the evolution of cluster-forming regions during a phase in which both accretion and feedback are present and use these models to investigate how star cluster formation might terminate. Protostellar outflows are the strongest form of feedback in low-mass regions, but these cannot stop cluster formation if matter continues to flow in. In more massive clusters, radiation pressure and photo-ionization rapidly clear the cluster-forming gas when its column density is too small. We assess the rates of dynamical mass ejection and of evaporation, while accounting for the important effect of dust opacity on photo-ionization. Our models are consistent with the census of protostellar outflows in NGC 1333 and Serpens South and with the dust temperatures observed in regions of massive star formation. Comparing observations of massive cluster-forming regions against our model parameter space, and against our expectations for accretion-driven evolution, we infer that massive-star feedback is a likely cause of gas disruption in regions with velocity dispersions less than a few kilometers per second, but that more massive and more turbulent regions are too strongly bound for stellar feedback to be disruptive.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fostering Peat Moss Feedbacks to Accelerate Peatland Restoration

Extensive knowledge exists on plant-species traits and functions, but we understand less about how population- or community-level emergent traits influence ecosystem functioning. This knowledge gap is important for ecosystems like peatlands, arid drylands, salt marshes, seagrass meadows and mangroves, where emergent traits of plant communities can create plant-environment feedbacks that amplify or dampen ecosystem processes. Recent insights from restoration ecology suggest that these feedbacks can critically influence restoration success. Despite growing recognition of emergent trait-driven feedbacks in other ecosystems, they remain underexplored in peatland restoration, world’s most carbon-dense ecosystem. Here, we review emergent self-amplifying and self-dampening feedbacks with net positive effects for peat moss-dominated systems. We show how these feedbacks can promote key physical, chemical, and biological processes that enhance peat moss growth, increase water retention, and reduce microbial decomposition of organic matter. Understanding and fostering these feedbacks offers a promising framework to accelerate peatland restoration across diverse degradation states.

Sphagnum↗

A Positive Low Cloud–Sea Surface Temperature Feedback in the East Asian Marginal Seas during El Niño Mature Winters and Their Following Spring

During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. Further, the concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CLUMPY DISKS AS A TESTBED FOR FEEDBACK-REGULATED GALAXY FORMATION

We study the dependence of fragmentation in massive gas-rich galaxy disks at z >1 on stellar feedback schemes and hydrodynamical solvers, employing the GASOLINE2 SPH code and the lagrangian mesh-less code GIZMO in finite mass mode. Non-cosmological galaxy disk runs with the standard delayed-cooling blastwave feedback are compared with runs adopting a new superbubble feedback, which produces winds by modeling the detailed physics of supernova-driven bubbles and leads to efficient self-regulation of star formation. We find that, with blastwave feedback, massive star-forming clumps form in comparable number and with very similar masses in GASOLINE2 and GIZMO. Typical clump masses are in the range 10{sup 7}–10{sup 8} M {sub ⊙}, lower than in most previous works, while giant clumps with masses above 10{sup 9} M {sub ⊙} are exceedingly rare. By contrast, superbubble feedback does not produce massive star-forming bound clumps as galaxies never undergo a phase of violent disk instability. In this scheme, only sporadic, unbound star-forming overdensities lasting a few tens of Myr can arise, triggered by non-linear perturbations from massive satellite companions. We conclude that there is severe tension between explaining massive star-forming clumps observed at z >1 primarily as the result of disk fragmentation driven by gravitational instability and the prevailing view of feedback-regulated galaxy formation. The link between disk stability and star formation efficiency should thus be regarded as a key testing ground for galaxy formation theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Increasing Black Hole Feedback-induced Quenching with Anisotropic Thermal Conduction

Feedback from central supermassive black holes is often invoked to explain the low star formation rates (SFRs) in the massive galaxies at the centers of galaxy clusters. However, the detailed physics of the coupling of the injected feedback energy with the intracluster medium (ICM) is still unclear. Using high-resolution magnetohydrodynamic cosmological simulations of galaxy cluster formation, we investigate the role of anisotropic thermal conduction in shaping the thermodynamic structure of clusters, and in particular, in modifying the impact of black hole feedback. Stratified anisotropically conducting plasmas are formally always unstable, and thus more prone to mixing, an expectation borne out by our results. The increased mixing efficiently isotropizes the injected feedback energy, which in turn significantly improves the coupling between the feedback energy and the ICM. This facilitates an earlier disruption of the cool-core, reduces the SFR by more than an order of magnitude, and results in earlier quenching despite an overall lower amount of feedback energy injected into the cluster core. With conduction, the metallicity gradients and dispersions are lowered, aligning them better with observational constraints. These results highlight the important role of thermal conduction in establishing and maintaining the quiescence of massive galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radiative Feedbacks Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Radiative kernels derived from CloudSat/CALIPSO measurements are used to diagnose radiative feedbacks induced by the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Over the Indo-Pacific warm pool, positive cloud and water vapor feedbacks are coincident with the convective envelope of the MJO during its active phases, whereas the lapse rate feedback shows less obvious correlation to the propagating disturbance. During phase 2/3, when the convective envelope is over the Indian Ocean, water vapor exhibits a vertically coherent response, with the largest anomalies and strongest feedback in the middle troposphere. Though spatial structures of the feedbacks vary, the most prominent difference lies in the magnitude. Cloud changes induce the largest radiative perturbations associated with the MJO. We also find that for individual MJO events, cloud feedback and precipitation are highly correlated, suggesting that the strength of individual MJO events is largely dictated by the magnitude of cloud radiative heating of the atmosphere. In addition, stronger radiative heating due to water vapor and clouds helps the MJO survive the barrier effect of the Maritime Continent, leading to further eastward propagation. These results offer process-oriented metrics that could help to improve model simulations and predictions of the MJO in the future.

radiative feedbacks↗

The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual and long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contributions From Cloud Morphological Changes to the Interannual Shortwave Cloud Feedback Based on MODIS and ISCCP Satellite Observations

The surface temperature-mediated change in cloud properties, referred to as the cloud feedback, continues to dominate the uncertainty in climate projections. A larger number of contemporary global climate models (GCMs) project a higher degree of warming than the previous generation of GCMs. This greater projected warming has been attributed to a less negative cloud feedback in the Southern Ocean. Here, we apply a novel “double decomposition method” that employs the “cloud radiative kernel” and “cloud regime” concepts, to two data sets of satellite observations to decompose the interannual cloud feedback into contributions arising from changes within and shifts between cloud morphologies. Our results show that contributions from the latter to the cloud feedback are large for certain regimes. We then focus on interpreting how both changes within and between cloud morphologies impact the shortwave cloud optical depth feedback over the Southern Ocean in light of additional observations. Results from the former cloud morphological changes reveal the importance of the wind response to warming increases low- and mid-level cloud optical thickness in the same region. Results from the latter cloud morphological changes reveal that a general shift from thick storm-track clouds to thinner oceanic low-level clouds contributes to a positive feedback over the Southern Ocean that is offset by shifts from thinner broken clouds to thicker mid- and low-level clouds. Our novel analysis can be applied to evaluate GCMs and potentially diagnose shortcomings pertaining to their physical parameterizations of particular cloud morphologies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗