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Automated Wildfire Detection Through Artificial Neural Networks

Wildfires have a profound impact upon the biosphere and our society in general. They cause loss of life, destruction of personal property and natural resources and alter the chemistry of the atmosphere. In response to the concern over the consequences of wildland fire and to support the fire management community, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS) located in Camp Springs, Maryland gradually developed an operational system to routinely monitor wildland fire by satellite observations. The Hazard Mapping System, as it is known today, allows a team of trained fire analysts to examine and integrate, on a daily basis, remote sensing data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite sensors and generate a 24 hour fire product for the conterminous United States. Although assisted by automated fire detection algorithms, N O M has not been able to eliminate the human element from their fire detection procedures. As a consequence, the manually intensive effort has prevented NOAA from transitioning to a global fire product as urged particularly by climate modelers. NASA at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland is helping N O M more fully automate the Hazard Mapping System by training neural networks to mimic the decision-making process of the frre analyst team as well as the automated algorithms.

Miller, Jerry↗

California Fire Plumes –OVERVIEW – 20 August 2020

At least seven major wildfires were burning across California as early as ~10:30 AM local time on 20 August 2020. They are identified as hot-spots at 4 microns wavelength, highlighted as red dots and superposed on this true-color image from the MODIS instrument aboard the NASA Earth Observing System’s Terra satellite. Wildfires tend to increase in intensity during the day, and fire activity usually peaks in the late afternoon.

wildfires↗

Horizontal variability of the marine boundary layer structure upwind of San Nicolas Island during FIRE, 1987

During the months of June and July 1987, the Marine Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observation Experiment of First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) was conducted in the Southern California offshore area in the vicinity of San Nicolas Island (SNI). The Naval Ocean Systems Center (NOSC) airborne platform was utilized during FIRE to investigate the upwind low level horizontal variability of the marine boundary layer structure to determine the representativeness of SNI-based measurements to upwind open ocean conditions. The NOSC airborne meteorological platform made three flights during FIRE, two during clear sky conditions (19 and 23 July), and one during two stratus conditions (15 July). The boundary layer structure variations associated with the stratus clouds of 15 July 1987 are discussed. Profiles of air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH) taken 'at' and 'upwind' of SNI do show differences between the so-called open ocean conditions and those taken near the island. However, the observed difference cannot be uniquely identified to island effects, especially since the upwind fluctuations of AT and RH bound the SNI measurements. Total optical depths measures at SNI do not appear to be greatly affected by any surface based aerosol effects created by the island and could therefore realistically represent open ocean conditions. However, if one were to use the SNI aerosol measurements to predict ship to ship EO propagation conditions, significant errors could be introduced due to the increased number of surface aerosols observed near SNI which may not be, and were not, characteristic of open ocean conditions. Sea surface temperature measurements taken at the island will not, in general, represent those upwind open ocean conditions. Also, since CTT's varied appreciably along the upwind radials, measurements of CTT over the island may not be representative of actual open ocean CTT's.

Jensen, Douglas R.↗

Predicting Rapid Fire Growth (Flashover) Using Generative Adversarial Networks

A flashover occurs when a fire spreads very rapidly through crevices due to intense heat. Flashovers present one of the most frightening and challenging fire phenomena to those who regularly encounter them: firefighters. Firefighters’ safety and lives often depend on their ability to predict flashovers before they occur. Typical pre-flashover fire characteristics include dark smoke, high heat, and rollover (“angel fingers”) and can be quantified by color, size, and shape. Using a color video stream from a firefighter’s body camera, we applied generative adversarial neural networks for image enhancement. The neural networks were trained to enhance very dark fire and smoke patterns in videos and monitor dynamic changes in smoke and fire areas. Preliminary tests with limited flashover training videos showed that we predicted a flashover as early as 55 seconds before it occurred.

Lu, Thomas↗

ISCCP results for the FIRE IFO regions and times

The ISCCP analysis of cloud conditions during and in the vicinity of the FIRE cirrus and marine stratus Intensive Field Observations (IFOs) is presented in two forms: the standard climatology product, which is averaged to a nominal 250 km resolution and a pixel-by-pixel version that samples the original data at about 30 km spacing every three hours. These results are based on NOAA-9 and GOES-6 images covering October to November 1986 and July 1987 for the FIRE Extended Area. Comparisons of these results with other FIRE observations will serve to check the accuracy of the clear sky radiances inferred by the ISCCP analysis, which determines the accuracy of the cloud detections. Of more interest is the exploration of the dependence of the inferred cloud properties for direct evaluation of the role of small scale variability of cloud properties on the radiation field. This is illustrated by preliminary results obtained for the scales contained in the ISCCP data. The ISCCP analysis also sets the larger scale context of the FIRE data: (1) comparisons of the clouds occurring in the FIRE IFOs with nearby locations and times are presented, and (2) comparisons of the cloud conditions for the same month in other years are shown.

Rossow, William B.↗

Infrared Solar Spectroscopic Measurements of Free Tropospheric CO, C2H6, and HCN above Mauna Loa, Hawaii: Seasonal Variations and Evidence for Enhanced Emissions from the Southeast Asian Tropical Fires of 1997-1998

High spectral resolution (0.003 per cm) infrared solar absorption measurements of CO, C2H6, and HCN have been recorded at the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change station on Mauna Loa, Hawaii, (19.5N, 155.6W, altitude 3.4 km). The observations were obtained on over 250 days between August 1995 and February 1998. Column measurements are reported for the 3.4-16 km altitude region, which corresponds approximately to the free troposphere above the station. Average CO mixing ratios computed for this layer have been compared with flask sampling CO measurements obtained in situ at the station during the same time period. Both show asymmetrical seasonal cycles superimposed on significant variability. The first 2 years of observations exhibit a broad January-April maximum and a sharper CO minimum during late summer. The C2H6 and CO 3.4-16 km columns were highly correlated throughout the observing period with the C2H6/CO slope intermediate between higher and lower values derived from similar infrared spectroscopic measurements at 32'N and 45'S latitude, respectively. Variable enhancements in CO, C2H6, and particularly HCN were observed beginning in about September 1997. The maximum HCN free tropospheric monthly mean column observed in November 1997 corresponds to an average 3.4-16 km mixing ratio of 0.7 ppbv (1 ppbv = 10(exp -9) per unit volume), more than a factor of 3 above the background level. The HCN enhancements continued through the end of the observational series. Back-trajectory calculations suggest that the emissions originated at low northern latitudes in southeast Asia. Surface CO mixing ratios and the C2H6 tropospheric columns measured during the same time also showed anomalous autumn 1997 maxima. The intense and widespread tropical wild fires that burned during the strong El Nino warm phase of 1997- 1998 are the likely source of the elevated emission products.

Rinsland, C. P.↗

Infrared Solar Spectroscopic Measurements of Free Tropospheric CO, C2H6, and HCN above Mauna Loa, Hawaii: Seasonal Variations and Evidence for Enhanced Emissions from the Southeast Asian Fires of 1997-1998

High spectral resolution (0.003/ cm) infrared solar absorption measurements of CO, C2H6, and HCN have been recorded at the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change station on Mauna Loa, Hawaii, (19.5 deg N, 155.6 deg W, altitude 3.4 km). The observations were obtained on over 250 days between August 1995 and February 1998. Column measurements are reported for the 3.4 - 16 km altitude region, which corresponds approximately to the free troposphere above the station. Average CO mixing ratios computed for this layer have been compared with flask sampling CO measurements obtained in situ at the station during the same time period. Both show asymmetrical seasonal cycles superimposed on significant variability. The first two years of observations exhibit a broad January-April maximum and a sharper CO minimum during late summer. The C2H6 and CO 3.4 - 16 km columns were highly correlated throughout the observing period with the C2H6/CO slope intermediate between higher and lower values derived from similar infrared spectroscopic measurements at 32 deg N and 45 deg S latitude, respectively. Variable enhancements in CO, C2H6, and particularly HCN were observed beginning in about September 1997. The maximum HCN free tropospheric monthly mean column observed in November 1997 corresponds to an average 3.4 - 16 km mixing ratio of 0.7 ppbv (1 ppbv = 10(exp -9) per unit volume), more than a factor of 3 above the background level. The HCN enhancements continued through the end of the observational series. Back-trajectory calculations suggest that the emissions originated at low northern latitudes in southeast Asia. Surface CO mixing ratios and the C2H6 tropospheric columns measured during the same time also showed anomalous autumn 1997 maxima. The intense and widespread tropical wild fires that burned during 3 the strong El Nino warm phase of 1997-1998 are the likely source of the elevated emission products.

Rinsland, C. P.↗

Potential of Full-polarimetric P- and L-band Sar Data in Characterizing Post-fire Recovery of Arctic Tundra

We used the airborne full polarimetric L-band and P-band SAR (PolSAR) data collected from recent NASA ABoVE Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) airborne campaign to understand the sensitivity of longwave radar backscatter intensity and phase to post-fire recovery process of Arctic tundra. The 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire was used as a case study. At 10-year post-fire, we observed a strong increase (>~4 dB) in both the P- and L-band radar backscatter in the severely burned areas, in contrast to limited backscatter differences (VV, VH) between burned and unburned areas at C-band. The polarimetric target decomposition analysis indicated a general trend towards more random surface scattering, and strong increases of the double-bounce and volumetric scattering power at both P- and L-band in the burned areas. Large differences were also observed in the Pauli phase angle and the dominant-scattering-type Touzi phase angle between the burned and unburned areas. The above changes are likely caused by increasing surface roughness and microtopography due to thermokarst development and ice degradation, and increasing subsurface scattering due to an overall drier and deeper active layer in the burned areas

Miller, Charles E.↗

Lusaka, Zambia during SAFARI-2000: A Collection Point for Ozone Pollution

In August and September, throughout south central Africa, seasonal clearing of dry vegetation and other fire-related activities lead to intense smoke haze and ozone formation. The first ozone soundings in the heart of the southern African burning region were taken at Lusaka, Zambia (155 deg S, 28 deg E) in early September 2000. Over 90 ppbv ozone was recorded at the surface (1.3 km elevation) and column tropospheric ozone was greater than 50 DU during a stagnant period. These values are much higher than concurrent measurements over Nairobi (1 deg S, 38 deg E) and Irene (25 deg S, 28 deg E, near Pretoria). The heaviest ozone pollution layer (800-500 hPa) over Lusaka is due to recirculated trans-boundary ozone. Starting out over Zambia, Angola, and Namibia, ozone heads east to the Indian Ocean, before turning back over Mozambique and Zimbabwe, heading toward Lusaka. Thus, Lusaka is a collection point for pollution, consistent with a picture of absolutely stable layers recirculating in a gyre over southern Africa.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗

Analysis of Aircraft, Radiosonde and Radar Observations in Cirrus Clouds Observed During FIRE II: The Interactions Between Environmental Structure, Turbulence and Cloud Microphysical Properties

Ways to determine the turbulence intensity and the horizontal variability in cirrus clouds have been investigated using FIRE-II aircraft, radiosonde and radar data. Higher turbulence intensities were found within some, but not all, of the neutrally stratified layers. It was also demonstrated that the stability of cirrus layers with high extinction values decrease in time, possibly as a result of radiative destabilization. However, these features could not be directly related to each other in any simple manner. A simple linear relationship was observed between the amount of horizontal variability in the ice water content and its average value. This was also true for the extinction and ice crystal number concentrations. A relationship was also suggested between the variability in cloud depth and the environmental stability across the depth of the cloud layer, which requires further investigation.

Smith, Samantha A.↗

FIRE - The First ISCCP Regional Experiment

The First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment (FIRE) designed to study the roles of clouds, in particular marine stratocumulus and cirrus-cloud systems, in the global climate is discussed. The objectives of FIRE are: (1) to develop a cloud-classification scheme; (2) to validate and improve satellite cloud-retrieval techniques; (3) to improve cloud radiation models; (4) to collect cloud space/time statistics; (5) to improve cloud dynamics models; and (6) to validate and improve GCM cloud parameterizations. The methods used to acquire extended time data and intensive field observations are described. The extended time and intensive field data collected during the FIRE are to be archived in the NASA Pilot Climate Data System at Goddard Space Flight Center.

Cox, Stephen K.↗

Temperature sensitivity of Eppley broadband radiometers

Broadband radiometers manufactured by Eppley Laboratories Inc. are commonly used to measure irradiance from both ground-based and aircraft platforms. Namely, the pyranometer (Model PSP) measures irradiance in the .3 to 3.0 micron spectral region while the pyrgeometer (Model PIR) senses energy in the 4 to 50 micron region. The two instruments have a similar thermopile construction but different filters to achieve the appropriate spectral selection. During the fall of 1986, the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) commenced with the first cirrus Intensive Field Observation (IFO) conducted in Central Wisconsin. Due to the nature of this field project, pyranometers and pyrgeometers manufactured by Eppley were flown on NCAR's high altitude research aircraft, the Sabreliner. Inherent in the construction of these radiometers is temperature compensation circuitry designed to make the instrument sensitivity nominally constant over a temperature range from -20 to +40 C. Because the Sabreliner flew at high altitudes where temperatures were as cold as -70 C, it was necessary to determine the radiometers relative sensitivity to temperatures below -20 C and apply appropriate corrections to the FIRE radiation data set. A procedure to perform this calibration is outlined. It is meant to serve as a supplement to calibration procedures.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

Navier-Stokes and viscous shock-layer solutions for radiating hypersonic flows

Results are presented from the Navier-Stokes and viscous shock-layer (VSL) calculations with nonequilibrium and equilibrium chemistry, respectively. These calculations contain coupling to the Aerotherm radiation code RAD. A simplified form of the electron energy equation is used to obtain an electron temperature in the Navier-Stokes calculations. The radiation in the flowfield is calculated using this temperature. The Navier-Stokes code is used at high altitude only, whereas the VSL code is employed for the entire entry period to make estimates of the radiative and convective heating to the Fire II vehicle. Results from the Navier-Stokes code have also been compared with the predictions of Lee and Kawamura, who used gray-gas radiation model and thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations. Quite good agreement is obtained between the measured and computed values of radiative and convective heating from the VSL code in th medium-to-low altitude flight regime of the Fire II vehicle. At high altitudes, the Navier-Stokes calculations considerably overpredict the Fire II flight data for radiative intensity. This is attributed to the deficiencies in the Aerotherm radiation model when used for low-density flight conditions. This model contains the thermal equilibrium assumption and precludes accounting for the collision-limiting phenomenon at high altitudes. Present Navier-Stokes calculations highlight the effect of these assumptions on radiative heating calculations for such conditions.

Gupta, Roop N.↗

NACA Investigation of a Jet-Propulsion System Applicable to Flight

Following a brief history of the NACA investigation of jet-propulsion, a discussion is given of the general investigation and analyses leading to the construction of the jet-propulsion ground-test mock-up. The results of burning experiments and of test measurements designed to allow quantitative flight-performance predictions of the system are presented and correlated with calculations. These calculations are then used to determine the performance of the system on the ground and in the air at various speeds and altitudes under various burning conditions. The application of the system to an experimental airplane is described and some performance predictions for this airplane are made. It was found that the main fire could be restricted to an intense, small, and short annular blue flame burning steadily and under control in the intended combustion space. With these readily obtainable combustion conditions, the combustion chamber the nozzle walls and the surrounding structure could be maintained at normal temperatures. The system investigated was found to be capable of burning one-half the intake air up the fuel rates of 3 pounds per second. Calculations were shown to agree well with experiment. It was concluded that the basic features of the jet-propulsion system investigation in the ground-test mock-up were sufficiently developed to be considered applicable to flight installation. Calculations indicated that an airplane utilizing this jet-propulsion system would have unusual capabilities in the high-speed range above the speeds of conventional aircraft and would, in addition, have moderately long cruising ranges if only the engine were used.

DUCTS↗

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗

PyroCbs from Australia Fires and its Impact Using Satellite Observations from CrIS and TROPOMI and Reanalysis Data

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are thunder clouds created by intense heat from the Earth’s surface. They are formed similarly to cumulonimbus clouds, but the intense heat that results in the vigorous updraft comes from fire, either large wildfires or volcanic eruptions. Australia’s unprecedented fire disasters at the end of 2019 to early 2020 emitted huge amounts of carbon monoxide (CO) and fire aerosol particles to the atmosphere, particularly during the pyroCb outbreak that occurred in southeast Australia between 29 December 2019 and 4 January 2020. It was estimated that at least 18 pyroCbs were generated during this episode, and some of them injected ice, smoke, and biomass burning gases above the local tropopause. An unprecedented abundance of H2O and CO in the stratosphere, and the displacement of background ozone (O3) and N2O from rapid ascent of air from the troposphere and lower stratosphere were found from satellite observations. Some other studies also found that the fire emissions and their long-range transport resulted in stratospheric aerosol, temperature, and O3 anomalies after the 2020 Australian bushfires and altered the Antarctic ozone and vortex, posing great impact to local air quality and climate change. Further study on the atmospheric thermodynamic status of atmosphere associated with these pyroCbs, and the change of the cloud properties and trace gases during this unprecedented Australia fires will be made using a new single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Products (SiFSAP). SiFSAP was developed by NASA using the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard SNPP and JPSS-1, and will soon be available to the public at NASA DAAC. Since this product has a spatial resolution of 15 km at nadir, which is better than most global weather and climate models and other current operational sounding products, a process-oriented analysis of the dynamic transport of CO and fire plumes during this unprecedented fire disasters will be made in this study. Based on a Principal Component Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) and an optimized estimation retrieval algorithm, a simultaneously retrieval is made using the whole spectral information measured by CrIS, and the derived SiFSAP include temperature, water vapor, trace gases (such as O3, CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O), cloud properties and surface properties. Use of ATMS together with CrIS allows SiFSAP to get accurate retrieval products under thick pyroCb conditions, and an algorithm to detect pyroCb based on the hyperspectral infrared sounder spectrum from CrIS will be developed and verified. In addition to SiFSAP sounding products, other products like CO, O3, NO2 from TROPOMI, O3 from OMPS will be used for retrospective analysis. The wind fields from the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) and ERA5 will be used to characterize the transport, and the SiFSAP temperature and water vapor profiles within and around pyroCbs will be compared with MERRA-2 and ERA5 products.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗