Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “fire modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of Grass Fires Burning in Marginal Conditions to Atmospheric Turbulence

Abstract Atmospheric forcing and interactions between the fire and atmosphere are primary drivers of wildland fire behavior. The atmosphere is known to be a chaotic system that, although deterministic, is very sensitive to small perturbations to initial conditions. We assume that as a result of the tight coupling between fire and atmosphere; wildland fire behavior, in turn, should also be sensitive to perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions. Observations suggest that low intensity prescribed fire, in particular, is susceptible to small perturbations in the wind field, which can significantly alter fire spread. Here, we employ a computational fluid dynamics model of coupled fire‐atmosphere interactions to answer the question: How sensitive is fire behavior to small variations in atmospheric turbulence? We perform ensemble simulations of fires in homogenous grass fuels. The only difference between ensemble members is the state of the turbulent atmosphere provided to the model throughout the simulation. The atmospheric state is a function of the initial conditions applied at the start of the simulation and boundary conditions applied throughout the simulation. We find a wide range of outcomes, with area burned ranging from 2,212 to 11,236 m 2 (>400% change), driven primarily by sensitivity to initial conditions, with nonnegligible contributions from boundary condition variability during the initial 30 s of simulation. Our results highlight the need for ensemble simulations, especially when considering fire behavior in marginal burning conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating crown scorch predictions from a computational fluid dynamics wildland fire simulator

Abstract Background Crown scorch—the heating of live leaves, needles, and buds in the vegetative canopy to lethal temperatures without widespread combustion—is one of the most common fire effects shaping post-fire canopies. Despite the ability of computational fluid dynamic models to finely resolve fire activity and buoyant plume dynamics including heterogenous 3D distributions of forest canopy heating, these models have had only limited use in simulating fire effects and have not been used to evaluate crown scorch. Here, we demonstrate a method of evaluating crown scorch using a computational fluid dynamics model, FIRETEC, and validate this approach by simulating the experiments that were used to develop Van Wagner’s 1973 crown scorch model. Results The average scorch height prediction from FIRETEC compares well with the empirical model derived by Van Wagner, which is the most widely used empirical model for crown scorch. We further find that the 3D buoyant plume dynamics from a steady and homogeneous idealized heat source on the ground results in a spatially heterogenous crown scorch pattern reflecting complex heating dynamics that are best represented by percent scorch rather than height of scorch. Conclusions The ability of the computational fluid dynamics model to capture variation in crown scorch due to 3D buoyant plume dynamics provides direct links between forest structure, fire behavior, and fire effects that can be used by forest managers and researchers to better understand how fires result in crown damage under various environmental and management scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linking habitat suitability with a longleaf pine-hardwood model: Building a species-predictive fire-land management framework

Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation Assessment of Turbulent Reacting Flow Model Using The Area-Validation Metric on Medium-Scale Methanol Pool Fire Results

Accident analysis and ensuring power plant safety are pivotal in the nuclear energy sector. Significant strides have been achieved over the past few decades regarding fire protection and safety, primarily centered on design and regulatory compliance. Yet, after the Fukushima accident a decade ago, the imperative to enhance measures against fire, internal flooding, and power loss has intensified. Hence, a comprehensive, multilayered protection strategy against severe accidents is needed. Consequently, gaining a deeper insight into pool fires and their behavior through extensive validated data can greatly aid in improving these measures using advanced validation techniques. A model validation study was performed at Sandia National Laboratories in which a 30-cm diameter methanol pool fire was modeled using the SIERRA/Fuego turbulent reacting flow code. This validation study used a standard validation experiment to compare model results against, and conclusions have been published. The fire was modeled with a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulence model with subgrid turbulent kinetic energy closure. Combustion was modeled using a strained laminar flamelet library approach. Radiative heat transfer was accounted for with a model utilizing the gray-gas approximation. In the present study, additional validation analysis is performed using the area validation metric (AVM). These activities are done on multiple datasets involving different variables and temporal/spatial ranges and intervals. In conclusion, the results provide insight into the use of the area validation metric on such temporally varying datasets and the importance of physics-aware use of the metric for proper analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of Cycling Coal-Fired Power Plants Using High-Fidelity Models

The project delivers a well-integrated and validated simulation platform for cycling operation analysis in coal-fired power plant. Two critical mechanical components of the boiler island were analyzed through mechanical integrity assessment and economic benefit analysis. The current phase of the project focuses on the development of the integrated simulation infrastructure and prove its feasibility and effectiveness using two typical use cases. This integrated platform can help save a lot of engineering efforts for model development and simulation analysis. Through the real simulation scenarios in this document, it was demonstrated that using this platform, an analysis can be completed in approximately 2 days, while it could cost several weeks before using this platform. Going forward, the platform built in this project can be used for more boiler service applications, and it can be further enhanced with more functions/features to maximize its usage and benefits. 1) Extend component-level analysis with more use cases to cover all the major critical components of boiler island under cycling operations. A library of critical components can be developed and validated for typical pulverized coal-fired subcritical boiler units. 2) Develop predictive maintenance features based on the integrated models (Digital Twins) and engineering analysis procedures. Predictive maintenance enables each asset to be serviced based on forecast on life consumption and cost profile for replacing/welding the critical mechanical parts of the boiler. This minimizes the chance of unscheduled shutdowns and emergency services at much higher costs and prevent the fatal accidents in unit operations. 3) Develop and maintain a standard library for critical component analysis under flexible plant operations, which will include libraries of: process models, MI models for typical pressure parts, and economic models with typical plant operating data and ISO power trade data.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mortality attributable to PM 2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM 2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM 2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM 2.5 , applying ZIP code–level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM 2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $\$432$ to $\$456$ billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US

Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Compression of Tabulated Chemistry Models with Partition of Unity Networks

Tabulated chemistry models are widely used to simulate large-scale turbulent fires in applications including energy generation and fire safety. Tabulation via piecewise Cartesian interpolation suffers from the curse-of-dimensionality, leading to a prohibitive exponential growth in parameters and memory usage as more dimensions are considered. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have attracted attention for constructing surrogates for chemistry models due to their ability to perform high-dimensional approximation. However, due to well-known pathologies regarding the realization of suboptimal local minima during training, in practice they do not converge and provide unreliable accuracy. Partition of unity networks (POUnets) are a recently introduced family of ANNs which preserve notions of convergence while performing high-dimensional approximation, discovering a mesh-free partition of space which may be used to perform optimal polynomial approximation. In this work, we assess their performance with respect to accuracy and model complexity in reconstructing unstructured flamelet data representative of nonadiabatic pool fire models. Our results show that POUnets can provide the desirable accuracy of classical spline-based interpolants with the low memory footprint of traditional ANNs while converging faster to significantly lower errors than ANNs. For example, we observe POUnets obtaining target accuracies in two dimensions with 40 to 50 times less memory and roughly double the compression in three dimensions. We also address the practical matter of efficiently training accurate POUnets by studying convergence over key hyperparameters, the impact of partition/basis formulation, and the sensitivity to initialization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of smoke from prescribed fire on road visibility

Prescribed fires are planned to achieve conservation and fuel reduction objectives while minimizing smoke ground concentration to limit health impacts and road visibility impairment. Prescribed burns cannot indeed be conducted if those hazards are not within predefined limits. This paper proposes a new framework to evaluate road visibility that overcomes the limitation of the state of the art model, VSMOKE. The framework leverages the fast-running framework QUIC-Fire/QUIC-SMOKE to capture fire and smoke dynamics, and the timing and duration of hazardous conditions on the road network close to the burn unit (within 50–100 km). The paper presents parametric study using a real burn plot at Fort Stewart (GA, USA), under hypothetical wind conditions to understand the interplay between buoyancy and smoke dilution. Here, results showed that faster winds caused fire escape while slower winds did not achieve a complete burn. Furthermore, faster winds featured brief road visibility reduction below braking distance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A One-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for a Cooled Airfoil in a Direct-fired Supercritical CO 2 Turbine

A one-dimensional (1-D) heat transfer model was developed to predict the performance of a cooled airfoil for a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) turbine. The model included the effects of film cooling effectiveness, thermal barrier coating thickness, and internal Nusselt number augmentation. Trends for overall cooling effectiveness versus heat load parameter were obtained for over twelve unique thermal management schemes. The study found that adding a thermal barrier coating was the most effective scheme for increasing the airfoil overall cooling effectiveness. Internal cooling technologies have diminishing returns as the heat transfer coefficient augmentation increases past a factor of five, however the sensitivity of overall cooling effectiveness to heat transfer augmentation scales by a factor of 1.3 when a thermal barrier coating is introduced. Film cooling is seen as a long-term research area which will be inevitably explored as direct sCO 2 systems develop a market presence. However, the model indicates that realizable film cooling effectiveness levels yield a smaller improvement in overall cooling effectiveness than a thermal barrier coating.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Business Models for Coal Plant Decommissioning

Aging coal-fired power plants are retiring across the United States. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory studied coal-fired power plant decommissioning business models to support program development for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) to engage with communities affected by power plant retirement processes. Evaluating and reducing the impact on coal-dependent communities from phasing out coal production is a crucial piece of nationwide economic development and community-directed engagement in the clean energy future. This report describes the steps in the typical coal-fired power plant decommissioning process, including analysis of the following key factors: Drivers including policy and regulations, competition with other fuels, and corporate responsibility goals; Types of coal plant decommissioning including plant retirement without full decommissioning, repurposing with fuel switch, redeveloping to utilize existing transmission, and decommissioning and repurposing with other commercial activities; and, Costs of coal plant decommissioning, including variations across regulated and deregulated markets and the funding resources to support decommissioning activities. The details described in this report relied heavily on the availability of local news reports and communications regarding plant retirements, as the researchers identified a lack of formal literature surrounding business models for coal plant decommissioning and a need for a more robust source material collection. In addition, a lack of oversight entities responsible for decommissioning processes may have led to this shortfall of information. Future research regarding coal plant decommissioning can include quantitative studies on power plant retirement drivers, procedures, and costs, qualitative assessments on affects decommissioning has on surrounding communities, investors, and other stakeholders, and identifying best practices to engage community stakeholders in the decommissioning process.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem fires and biomass burning-induced carbon emissions in China over the past two decades

Fire is a major type of disturbance that has important influences on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycles. Yet our understanding of ecosystem fires and their carbon cycle consequences is still limited, largely due to the difficulty of large-scale fire monitoring and the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Here, using data from satellite-derived fire observations and ecosystem model simulations, we performed a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of China's ecosystem fire disturbances and their carbon emissions over the past two decades (1997–2016). Satellite-derived results showed that on average about 3.47 - 4.53 x 10 4 km 2 of the land was burned annually during the past two decades, among which annual burned forest area was about 0.81 - 1.25 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 0.33-0.51% of the forest area in China. Biomass burning emitted about 23.02 TgC per year. Compared to satellite products, simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM) strongly overestimated China's burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions. Annual burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions were high for boreal forest in Northeast China's Daxing'anling region and subtropical dry forest in South Yunnan, as revealed by both the satellite product and the model simulations. Our results suggest that climate and anthropogenic factors play critical roles in controlling the spatial and seasonal distribution of China's ecosystem fire disturbances. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple complementary approaches in assessing ecosystem fire disturbance and its carbon consequences. Further studies are required to improve the methods of observing and modelling China's ecosystem fire disturbances, which will provide valuable information for fire management and ecosystem sustainability in an era when both human activities and the natural environment are rapidly changing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗