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At least 127 records · Page 7

Response of Subsurface Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities to Environmental Fluctuations (Final Technical Report)

Riparian floodplains are dynamic ecosystems linking terrestrial and riverine systems. These floodplains experience hydrological shifts such as changes in water table height, flooding, and drought and can be ‘hotspots’ of biogeochemical cycling due to shifting sediment moisture (and saturation) and subsurface exchanges of water, nutrients, and other compounds across different sediment layers. Subsurface microbial communities are the primary drivers of biogeochemical processes in floodplains, and thus their structure and function can directly influence both surface and groundwater quality. The microbial nitrogen (N) cycle is particularly important in floodplains as it affects nutrient availability and removal. Two functional guilds of chemoautotrophic (i.e. CO2-fixing) microorganisms are responsible for the first oxidative step of the N cycle, nitrification: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) catalyze the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite, while nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) oxidize nitrite to nitrate. Despite the critical role nitrification plays in N-cycling in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, our understanding of the diversity, ecophysiology, and activity of nitrifying organisms in subsurface floodplain soils/sediments is extremely limited. To help address this critical knowledge gap, the overarching goal of this project was to determine how shifts in key environmental parameters and gradients impact microbial N-cycling communities/processes, with particular emphasis on nitrification, within hydrologically-variable floodplain sediments in the Wind River Basin near Riverton, Wyoming. The three specific objectives of this project were to: (1) to associate in situ environmental drivers of N cycling with distinct functional guilds; (2) determine the guild response to variation in key ecosystem drivers; and (3) develop a dynamic ecosystem model of the microbial N cycle with the Riverton subsurface using community genomic and biogeochemical data collected in the first two objectives. Over the course of this project, we employed both 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and genome-resolved metagenomics to examine the phylogenetic diversity and metabolic potential of subsurface nitrifier communities within 68 samples collected across multiple sites, depths, and time points within the Riverton floodplain, allowing for both spatial and temporal investigations at different scales. This project benefitted tremendously from recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies coupled with dramatic improvements in the computational tools and algorithms available for analyzing such large, complex genomic datasets. By pairing these cutting-edge genomic approaches with depth-resolved sampling and detailed geochemical analyses of the Riverton floodplain, we have gained novel insights into the structure and function of subsurface nitrifier communities in relation to both hydrology and biogeochemistry. This project resulted in the most detailed and comprehensive characterization of N-cycling floodplain microbial communities to date and will hopefully inspire and pave the way for future studies using similar approaches in other floodplains. Indeed, such information is critical for understanding subsurface biogeochemical cycling and how elemental stores are altered from perturbations initiated by the water cycle within floodplains. Finally, because of the terrestrial-aquatic nature of the Riverton floodplain, results from this project are also of relevance to disciplines such as soil science, estuarine science, limnology & oceanography, biogeochemistry, geobiology, environmental engineering, as well as genomics and data science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Restoring freshwater habitat mosaics to promote resilience of vulnerable salmon populations

Phenotypic diversity and abundance drive salmon resilience in the face of increasing environmental variability. But what happens when human activities fundamentally alter the habitat complexity that drives this diversity? And how can we restore habitats to recover both diversity and abundance to support salmon persistence in a warming climate? Here, we looked at the impact of a large watershed restoration effort on the abundance and climate resilience of the three remaining core natural spring-run Chinook Salmon populations in the California Central Valley (Butte, Mill, and Deer Creek). Butte Creek fish, which have floodplain access, had higher overall productivity and faster juvenile growth compared with Mill and Deer Creek populations, and the proportion of floodplain inundation was positively correlated with Butte Creek adult abundance two years later. While Butte Creek exhibited significant increases in abundance post-restoration (~2000%), it generally exhibited lower phenotypic diversity and only a marginal increase in population stability after restoration based on the coefficient of variation (CV). In particular, Butte Creek salmon tended to exhibit larger drops in escapement following dry years (e.g., return years 2010, 2017) compared with Mill and Deer Creek populations, presumably due to limited inundation of its downstream floodplain. The late-migrating juvenile strategy (i.e., yearling), which disproportionately supported Mill and Deer Creek populations during droughts, was uncommon among Butte Creek adults (averaging 60% of returns for Mill and Deer Creek vs. 0.3% for Butte Creek). Increased spring-run stock complex stability was found, post-restoration, when combining the three spring-run populations (i.e., lower aggregate CV). However, among-river pairwise correlations also suggested increased synchronization in population abundances post-restoration, potentially due to increasing frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (e.g., droughts and ocean warming). This study underscores the importance of restoring a connected mosaic of aquatic habitats across modified landscapes, such as cold water refugia and floodplains, to preserve multiple (across-population) life history pathways for increasing salmon stock complex stability and abundance. These landscape-scale process-based habitat restoration efforts are likely to be crucial for the successful long-term recovery of vulnerable species in a rapidly changing climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating precipitation, streamflow, and inundation forecasting skills during extreme weather events: A case study for an urban watershed

Integrated forecasting systems for precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation are of critical importance in mitigating the impacts of destructive floods caused by extreme weather events. However, the skills of streamflow and floodplain inundation forecasts derived from various Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) require a greater level of understanding. In this paper, a set of QPF developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) were used to drive a flood modeling system obtained utilizing offline coupling of a physics-based distributed hydrological model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM), and a hydrodynamic model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). This flood modeling system was used to produce forecasts of streamflow and floodplain inundation maps during three major flood events in the Brays Bayou Watershed (Houston, Texas, USA) for a range of QPF durations (6–72 h). Then, to investigate the effects of increasing QPF durations on the forecasts, the forecasting skills of precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation were quantified. The results show that: 1) QPF skills for more intense and sustained events such as hurricanes and tropical storms are higher than for shorter, less intense events; 2) while QPF and streamflow forecasting skills decrease as QPF durations increase, inundation forecasts under longer QPF durations (24 or 72 h) show higher skills; 3) extending the maximum QPF duration in operational hydrologic modeling from 24 h (under normal circumstances) to 72 h (for extreme events) may increase the skills of long lead time forecasts for large-scale events like Hurricane Harvey.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of potential future climate change on flood regimes, floodplain protection, and electricity infrastructures across the Conasauga River watershed in the southeastern United States through ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling. The ensemble streamflow scenarios were simulated by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) driven by (1) 1981–2012 Daymet meteorological observations and (2) 11 sets of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) during the 1966–2005 historical and 2011–2050 future periods. Surface inundation was simulated using a GPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) hydrodynamic model. A total of 9 out of the 11 GCMs exhibit an increase in the mean ensemble flood inundation areas. Moreover, at the 1 % annual exceedance probability level, the flood inundation frequency curves indicate a ∼ 16 km2 increase in floodplain area. The assessment also shows that even after flood-proofing, four of the substations could still be affected in the projected future period. The increase in floodplain area and substation vulnerability highlights the need to account for climate change in floodplain management. Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept demonstration of how the computationally intensive hydrodynamic inundation modeling can be used to enhance flood frequency maps and vulnerability assessment under the changing climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Terrestrial Water Dynamics in the Congo Basin Using GRACE and Satellite Radar Altimetry

The Congo Basin is the world's third largest in size (approx.3.7 million sq km), and second only to the Amazon River in discharge (approx.40,200 cu m/s annual average). However, the hydrological dynamics of seasonally flooded wetlands and floodplains remains poorly quantified. Here, we separate the Congo wetland into four 3deg 3deg regions, and use remote sensing measurements (i.e., GRACE, satellite radar altimeter, GPCP, JERS-1, SRTM, and MODIS) to estimate the amounts of water filling and draining from the Congo wetland, and to determine the source of the water. We find that the amount of water annually filling and draining the Congo wetlands is 111 cu km, which is about one-third the size of the water volumes found on the mainstem Amazon floodplain. Based on amplitude comparisons among the water volume changes and timing comparisons among their fluxes, we conclude that the local upland runoff is the main source of the Congo wetland water, not the fluvial process of river-floodplain water exchange as in the Amazon. Our hydraulic analysis using altimeter measurements also supports our conclusion by demonstrating that water surface elevations in the wetlands are consistently higher than the adjacent river water levels. Our research highlights differences in the hydrology and hydrodynamics between the Congo wetland and the mainstem Amazon floodplain.

Lee, Hyongki↗

Characterization of Terrestrial Water Dynamics in the Congo Basin Using GRACE and Satellite Radar Altimetry

The Congo Basin is the world's third largest in size (approximately 3.7 million km^2), and second only to the Amazon River in discharge (approximately 40,200 cms annual average). However, the hydrological dynamics of seasonally flooded wetlands and floodplains remains poorly quantified. Here, we separate the Congo wetland into four 3 degree x 3 degree regions, and use remote sensing measurements (i.e., GRACE, satellite radar altimeter, GPCP, JERS-1, SRTM, and MODIS) to estimate the amounts of water filling and draining from the Congo wetland, and to determine the source of the water. We find that the amount of water annually filling and draining the Congo wetlands is 111 km^3, which is about one-third the size of the water volumes found on the mainstem Amazon floodplain. Based on amplitude comparisons among the water volume changes and timing comparisons among their fluxes, we conclude that the local upland runoff is the main source of the Congo wetland water, not the fluvial process of river-floodplain water exchange as in the Amazon. Our hydraulic analysis using altimeter measurements also supports our conclusion by demonstrating that water surface elevations in the wetlands are consistently higher than the adjacent river water levels. Our research also highlights differences in the hydrology and hydrodynamics between the Congo wetland and the mainstem Amazon floodplain.

Lee, Lyongki↗

Sulfur Biogeochemical Cycling and Redox Dynamics in a Shale-Dominated Mountainous Watershed

Sulfur (S) is an essential macronutrient and important component of the earth’s crust, and its cycling has critical impacts on trace metal mobility, water quality, and human health. Pyrite weathering is the primary pathway by which sulfur enters surface waters. However, biogeochemical cycling of sulfur in soils and the river corridor mediates sulfate exports. In this study, we identified the major forms of sulfur across multiple compartments and scales in a pristine mountainous watershed, including shale bedrock weathering profiles, hillslope soils, and alluvial floodplain sediments, in order to provide insight into biogeochemical sulfur cycling in a hydrologically variable alpine system. X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) analysis of shale weathering profiles showed clear evidence of pyrite oxidation to sulfate, with large accumulations of intermediate S(0) (20%–53%). Micro-scale XANES showed evidence of reprecipitation of pyrite at fracture surfaces within the permanently saturated zone. Organic sulfur dominated S speciation in shallow hillslope soil and floodplain sediment, with little evidence of reduced inorganic S. However, mackinawite formation, representing active sulfate reduction, was observed in saturated oxbow sediments and saturated weathered shale underlying floodplain sediments. Further evidence of sulfate reduction from aqueous sulfur isotopic analysis was observed in shallow groundwater transects across an Fe-reducing meander, whereas increases in pore water sulfate concentrations implied sulfur oxidation at other locations. Furthermore, the data present an integrated picture of sulfur cycling in a shale-dominated watershed, where riverine sulfate exports are mediated by biological cycling, particularly in redox-stratified and temporally dynamic hyporheic zone sediments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗

Natural abundance nitrate isotopes from Rifle and the East River Watershed, Colorado

This data package provides data on the natural abundance isotopes of nitrate from various sources, including porewater, stream, and precipitation. The overall purpose of this data package is to complement additional data streams for nitrogen cycling metrics (e.g., riverine inorganic and organic nitrogen measurements) with specific data gleaned from the interpretation of terrestrial and riverine isotope measurements and collectively understand on how nitrogen is cycled around this system. The Rifle and East River are part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) located in the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. Collection locations include: Pumphouse (multiple sampling dates), River (upstream/ downstream meander C), Shallow soil lysimeters (hillslope, toeslope, floodplain), Hillslope-floodplain borehole wells (i.e., Pumphouse Lower Montane (PLM) wells), and Potassium chloride(KCL)-extracted soil samples. Copper Creek sampling includes 8x river sample points and two tributaries sampled on Sept. Oct. 2017, July 2018. East River below the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory sampling includes 1 access point sampled on July, Sept. Oct. 2017. Rifle floodplain sampling includes well TT03 across multiple collection times over 2014. Data is provided in 5 individual files by location in csv format, or all compiled in Excel format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Waterlevel, geochemical, and borehole data from Rifle, Colorado from 2006-2016

The files included in this data package provide site wide water level data, geochemical data, and borehole information associated with the Rifle site in Colorado during the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL) led Integrated Field Research Challenge (IFRC) and Scientific Focus Area (SFA) research projects. The data informs hydrogeochemical interactions occurring in the watershed. The readme file contains detailed metadata for the files, including naming conventions, column headers, and data validation.The borehole information is provided in the file called rifle_boreholes.csv. It provides names and location for boreholes/wells at the Rifle. The waterlevel data is provided in the folder rifle_waterlevels. The geochemical data is provided in two folders: the rifle_floodplain_geochemistry folder has data which was collected from wells across the floodplain and a variety of offsite locations that contribute solutes to the floodplain given their upgradient locations. The rifle_plotC_geochemistry folder has data which was collected primarily in plot C, which was a focused study area in which a large number of groundwater manipulation / biostimulation experiments were conducted. While not all geochemical constituents are included for each well location and sampling date, they include anions, cations, trace metals, dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, stable isotopes of water and sulfur (as sulfate), and water quality parameters including pH, groundwater electrical conductivity (EC) and dissolved oxygen (DO). All files are in csv or txt format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determining the Optimum Post Spacing of LIDAR-Derived Elevation Data in Varying Terrain for Flood Hazard Mapping Purposes in North Carolina and Texas

The major flood events in the United States in the past few years have made it apparent that many floodplain maps being used by State governments are outdated and inaccurate. In response, many Stated have begun to update their Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps. Accurate topographic data is one of the most critical inputs for floodplain analysis and delineation. Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) altimetry is one of the primary remote sensing technologies that can be used to obtain high-resolution and high-accuracy digital elevation data suitable for hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling, in part because of its ability to "penetrate" various cover types and to record geospatial data from the Earth's surface. However, the posting density or spacing at which LIDAR collects the data will affect the resulting accuracies of the derived bare Earth surface, depending on terrain type and land cover type. For example, flat areas are thought to require higher or denser postings than hilly areas to capture subtle changes in the topography that could have a significant effect on flooding extent. Likewise, if an area has dense understory and overstory, it may be difficult to receive LIDAR returns from the Earth's surface, which would affect the accuracy of that bare Earth surface and thus would affect flood model results. For these reasons, NASA and FEMA have partnered with the State of North Carolina and with the U.S./Mexico Foundation in Texas to assess the effect of LIDAR point density on the characterization of topographic variation and on H&H modeling results for improved floodplain mapping. Research for this project is being conducted in two areas of North Carolina and in the City of Brownsville, Texas, each with a different type of terrain and varying land cover/land use. Because of various project constraints, LIDAR data were acquired once at a high posting density and then decimated to coarser postings or densities. Quality assurance/quality control analyses were performed on each dataset. Cross sections extracted form the high density and then the decimated datasets were individually input into an H&H model to determine the model's sensitivity to topographic variation and the effect of that variation on the resulting water profiles. Additional analysis was performed on the Brownsville, Texas, LIDAR data to determine the percentage of returns that "penetrated" various types of canopy or vegetative cover. It is hoped that the results of these studies will benefit state and local communities as they consider the post spacing at which to acquire LIDAR data (which affects cost) and will benefit FEMA as the Agency assesses the use of different technologies for updating National Flood Insurance Program and related products.

Berglund, Judith↗

A Simulation Model of Carbon Cycling and Methane Emissions in Amazon Wetlands

An integrative carbon study is investigating the hypothesis that measured fluxes of methane from wetlands in the Amazon region can be predicted accurately using a combination of process modeling of ecosystem carbon cycles and remote sensing of regional floodplain dynamics. A new simulation model has been build using the NASA- CASA concept for predicting methane production and emission fluxes in Amazon river and floodplain ecosystems. Numerous innovations area being made to model Amazon wetland ecosystems, including: (1) prediction of wetland net primary production (NPP) as the source for plant litter decomposition and accumulation of sediment organic matter in two major vegetation classes - flooded forests (varzea or igapo) and floating macrophytes, (2) representation of controls on carbon processing and methane evasion at the diffusive boundary layer, through the lake water column, and in wetland sediments as a function of changes in floodplain water level, (3) inclusion of surface emissions controls on wetland methane fluxes, including variations in daily surface temperature and of hydrostatic pressure linked to water level fluctuations. A model design overview and early simulation results are presented.

Potter, Christopher↗

Megafans-Some New Perspectives from a Global Study

A global study of megafans (greater than 100 km long) has revealed their widespread existence on all continents, with almost 200 documented, 93 in Africa where research is most thorough. The largest measures 705 km. Megafans are a major subset of "DFS" (distributive fluvial systems, a category that includes all fan-like features greater than 30 km long). 1. Many researchers now recognize megafans as different from floodplains, small coarse-grained alluvial fans, and deltas. Although smaller architectural elements in megafans are the same as those encountered in floodplains (channel, overbank, etc.), larger architectures differ because of the unconfined setting of megafans, versus the valley-confined setting of floodplains. 2. A length continuum is now documented between steep alluvial fans 10-20 km in length, and fluvial fans 30-50 km long. This implies a continuum of process from end-member alluvial fan processes (e.g. high-energy flows that emplace gravels, debris-flow units) to the relatively fine-grained channel and overbank deposits common to purely fluvial fans. Combinations of these different processes will then occur in many mid-sized fans. 3. The global distribution suggests a prima facie relationship with tectonic environment rather than climatic zones, with local controls being the slope of the formative river and the existence of a basin subsiding below the long profile of the river. But the global population has revealed that most megafans are relict. So it is possible that further research will show relationships to prior climatic regimes. 4. Megafans can have regional importance: e.g., along the east flank of the central Andes, nested megafans total approximately 750,000 km2-and 1.2m km2 if all megafans in S. America are counted. Modern megafan landscapes thus have basinal importance, orders of magnitude greater than alluvial fan bajadas. 5. Because so many aggrading basins are dominated today by DFS, it is claimed that DFS ought to be significant in the subsurface; and that existing fluvial models therefore may not apply to the majority of fluvial sedimentary units. Arguments have been raised against this view, but as modern megafan systems become better known they are rapidly being applied as a model in many fluvial basins. A small literature has arisen with apparent examples from every part of the world.

Wilkinson, M. Justin↗

The Critical Role of the Routing Scheme in Simulating Peak River Discharge in Global Hydrological Models

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge which is crucial in flood simulations has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a) project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood (Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain). The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC (Global Runoff Data Centre) stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about two-thirds of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

peak river discharge↗

Influence of regional anthropogenic changes over Nile region on the climate system during the late Holocene (~2500 years before present)

The societal impacts of climate change during the late Holocene leads to regional anthropogenic changes over the Nile region floodplain and could have acted in tandem with natural factors like major volcanic eruptions on the regional climate system to magnify the local climatic impacts. This study aims to explore and investigate the sensitivity of climatic changes to the regional anthropogenic changes due to various factors over the Nile river floodplains during the late-Holocene (2.5K years before present). The GISS ModelE Earth system model will be used to simulate the various scenarios of regional increasing/decreasing river fraction, changes in vegetation type and cover, along with changes in land surface type against the no-changes scenario in absence of volcanic eruptions. The spatial coverage of the Nile river basin is estimated using the GIS shapefile based on elevation data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) at 3 Arc-seconds (approx. 90-meter) horizontal resolution. The extent of flooding in the model grid (2.0°x2.5° in latitude and longitude) is estimated using the existing high-resolution (0.125°x0.125°) gridded topographic elevation information and mapped over the Nile river floodplains. This study also focuses on evaluating the NASA GISS ModelE for resolving the climate feedbacks and response on climate system due to anthropogenic changes and volcanic eruptions. It is also aimed to analyze and quantify the impact of various anthropogenic factors over the African monsoon system and rainfall over the region, which feeds the Nile River.

Anthropogenic changes↗

Structure and composition of natural ferrihydrite nano-colloids in anoxic groundwater

Fe-rich mobile colloids play vital yet poorly understood roles in the biogeochemical cycling of Fe in groundwater by influencing organic matter (OM) preservation and fluxes of Fe, OM, and other essential (micro-)nutrients. Yet, few studies have provided molecular detail on the structures and compositions of Fe-rich mobile colloids and factors controlling their persistence in natural groundwater. Here, we provide comprehensive new information on the sizes, molecular structures, and compositions of Fe-rich mobile colloids that accounted for up to 72% of aqueous Fe in anoxic groundwater from a redox-active floodplain. The mobile colloids are multi-phase assemblages consisting of Si-coated ferrihydrite nanoparticles and Fe(II)-OM complexes. Ferrihydrite nanoparticles persisted under both oxic and anoxic/sulfidic conditions, which we attribute to passivation by Si and OM. These findings suggest that mobile Fe-rich colloids generated in floodplains can persist during transport through redox-variable soils and could be discharged to surface waters. These results shed new light on their potential to transport Fe, OM, and nutrients across terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive management of large-scale ecosystem restoration: increasing certainty of habitat outcomes in the Columbia River Estuary, U.S.A.

Ecological restoration programs in dynamic coastal environments can benefit from adaptive management, including an iterative process for identifying and addressing critical uncertainties. We highlight key developments under the three pillars that have increased the rate of restoration by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP) over 20 years: science, coordination, and management. We show how such programs can be institutionalized to ensure that estuary ecosystems are better understood, conserved, and restored. The principal conservation effort under CEERP is to reconnect historical floodplain wetlands to the mainstem. The program also supports other restoration actions that demonstrate a high potential to benefit ecosystem function and endangered salmon populations, however, there is greater uncertainty regarding these less-utilized techniques. Through adaptive management, we address both technical uncertainty regarding benefits to the environmental resource and programmatic uncertainty pertaining to decision-making. Here, we examine three periods of CEERP growth to establish how complementary research and restoration actions have improved program outcomes over time. We highlight the tools and processes that were developed and integrated into the program to refine program strategy, improve project design, and maximize ecological benefits. CEERP supported 77 restoration projects and reconnected over 7,000 acres of floodplain habitat to the lower Columbia River between 2004 and 2021. Building on these successes, we outline current plans to better engage landowners and local communities, solicit new project types, and maintain enough flexibility within the program to adapt to new priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗