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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term dynamics of soil, tree stem and ecosystem methane fluxes in a riparian forest

The carbon (C) budgets of riparian forests are sensitive to climatic variability. Therefore, riparian forests are hot spots of C cycling in landscapes. Only a limited number of studies on continuous measurements of methane (CH 4 ) fluxes from riparian forests is available. Here, in this work, we report continuous high-frequency soil and ecosystem (eddy-covariance; EC) measurements of CH 4 fluxes with a quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometer for a 2.5-year period and measurements of CH 4 fluxes from tree stems using manual chambers for a 1.5 year period from a temperate riparian Alnus incana forest. The results demonstrate that the riparian forest is a minor net annual sink of CH 4 consuming 0.24 kg CH 4 -C ha –1 y –1 . Soil water content is the most important determinant of soil, stem, and EC fluxes, followed by soil temperature. There were significant differences in CH 4 fluxes between the wet and dry periods. During the wet period, 83% of CH 4 was emitted from the tree stems while the ecosystem-level emission was equal to the sum of soil and stem emissions. During the dry period, CH 4 was substantially consumed in the soil whereas stem emissions were very low. A significant difference between the EC fluxes and the sum of soil and stem fluxes during the dry period is most likely caused by emission from the canopy whereas at the ecosystem level the forest was a clear CH 4 sink. Our results together with past measurements of CH 4 fluxes in other riparian forests suggest that temperate riparian forests can be long-term CH 4 sinks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating source-sink distributions and fluxes of reactive nitrogen and sulfur within a mixed forest canopy

The vertical source-sink distribution of air pollutants within and above forested canopies is necessary for describing the biological, physical, and chemical processes influencing the soil-vegetation-atmosphere exchange. Here, this study implemented inverse modeling methods to estimate the source-sink and flux profiles of reactive nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) compounds from measurements of the mean concentration profiles of ammonia (NH 3 ), nitric acid (HNO 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate ammonium (NH 4 + ), nitrate (NO 3 − ), and sulfate (SO 4 2− ) at a forest site in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Three inverse approaches utilizing different approximations to scalar transport within the canopy were developed and evaluated against sensible heat flux measurements. The Eulerian model (EUL), which incorporates vertical velocity skewness, performed well in reproducing the turbulent heat fluxes and was subsequently used to calculate the chemical source-sink and flux profiles. Above-canopy fluxes of NH 3 were downward, indicating that the forest was a net sink of NH 3 . The soil/litter layer was both a source and a sink for NH 3 but the exchange rate at the forest floor was small. Fluxes of HNO 3 , SO 2 , NO 3 − , NH 4 + , and SO 4 2- were uni-directional (deposition only) between the air and the canopy/ground and increased monotonically from the forest floor to the canopy top. Crown foliage dominated the uptake of reactive N and S during the growing season, accounting for 80–90% of the total canopy-scale flux. Fluxes and canopy-ground partitioning estimated using the resistance-based Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gas Exchange (STAGE) model were generally comparable to EUL. The comparison highlights the need for improved parameterizations of litter exchange and NH 3 compensation points in resistance models for forest ecosystems. The findings here benefit the application of critical loads in forest ecosystems and guide further development of resistance-based exchange models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mechanistic Modeling of Microtopographic Impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes in an Alaskan Tundra Ecosystem Using the CLM-Microbe Model

Spatial heterogeneities in soil hydrology have been confirmed as a key control on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the Arctic tundra ecosystem. In this study, we applied a mechanistic ecosystem model, CLM-Microbe, to examine the microtopographic impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes across seven landscape types in Utqia&#289vik, Alaska: trough, low-centered polygon (LCP) center, LCP transition, LCP rim, high-centered polygon (HCP) center, HCP transition, and HCP rim. We first validated the CLM-Microbe model against static-chamber measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in 2013 for three landscape types: trough, LCP center, and LCP rim. Model application showed that low-elevation and thus wetter landscape types (i.e., trough, transitions, and LCP center) had larger CH 4 emissions rates with greater seasonal variations than high-elevation and drier landscape types (rims and HCP center). Sensitivity analysis indicated that substrate availability for methanogenesis (acetate, CO 2 + H 2 ) is the most important factor determining CH 4 emission, and vegetation physiological properties largely affect the net ecosystem carbon exchange and ecosystem respiration in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Modeled CH 4 emissions for different microtopographic features were upscaled to the eddy covariance (EC) domain with an area-weighted approach before validation against EC-measured CH 4 fluxes. The model underestimated the EC-measured CH 4 flux by 20% and 25% at daily and hourly time steps, suggesting the importance of the time step in reporting CH 4 flux. The strong microtopographic impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes call for a model-data integration framework for better understanding and predicting carbon flux in the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of microstructure on flux expulsion of superconducting radio frequency cavities

The trapped residual magnetic flux during the cool-down due to the incomplete Meissner state is a significant source of radio frequency losses in superconducting radio frequency cavities. Here, in this study, we clearly correlate the niobium microstructure in elliptical cavity geometry and flux expulsion behavior. In particular, a traditionally fabricated Nb cavity half-cell from an annealed poly-crystalline Nb sheet after an 800 °C heat treatment leads to a bi-modal microstructure that ties in with flux trapping and inefficient flux expulsion. This non-uniform microstructure is related to varying strain profiles along the cavity shape. A novel approach to prevent this non-uniform microstructure is presented by fabricating a 1.3 GHz single cell Nb cavity with a cold-worked sheet and subsequent heat treatment leading to better flux expulsion after 800 °C/3 h. Microstructural evolution by electron backscattered diffraction-orientation imaging microscopy on cavity cutouts, and flux pinning behavior by dc-magnetization on coupon samples confirms a reduction in flux pinning centers with increased heat treatment temperature. The heat treatment temperature-dependent mechanical properties and thermal conductivity are reported. The significant impact of cold work in this study demonstrates clear evidence for the importance of the microstructure required for high-performance superconducting cavities with reduced losses caused by magnetic flux trapping.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and validation of non-axisymmetric heat flux simulations with 3D fields using the HEAT code

A new comprehensive module to simulate heat fluxes from three-dimensional (3D) magnetic fields has been implemented in the HEAT code. Especially compact tokamaks like SPARC require tools to predict and manage large heat fluxes. Existing release versions of HEAT can only simulate axisymmetric heat flux on 3D plasma facing components. The new module uses an M3D-C1 perturbed equilibrium and the MAFOT code to trace field lines of the perturbed 3D magnetic field. Heat flux is then assigned to the resulting footprints via a 3D layer model. The model distinguishes between the scrape-off layer, the magnetic lobes and the private flux region, and employs only 0D parameters like the layer width, diffusive spread and the last closed flux surface position in the perturbed edge to generate a heat flux profile. The magnitude is normalized to the total input power. Resulting heat flux simulations are compared and validated against infrared measurements in the DIII-D tokamak with applied 3D fields; good agreement is found for several cases. The new module can now be applied to the SPARC tokamak; a preliminary result for applied rotating 3D fields is shown.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Surface Turbulence Flux Parameterizations on the MJO: The Role of Ocean Surface Waves

This study investigates the sensitivity of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to changes to the bulk flux parameterization and the role of ocean surface waves in air–sea coupling using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave model. The atmospheric and ocean model components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are coupled to a spectral wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3). Two experiments with wind speed–dependent bulk algorithms (NCAR and COARE3.0a) and one experiment with wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0a-WAV) were conducted. We modify COARE3.0a to include surface roughness calculated within WW3 and also account for the buffering effect of waves on the relative difference between air-side and ocean-side momentum flux. Differences in surface fluxes, primarily caused by discrepancies in drag coefficients, result in significant differences in MJO’s properties. While COARE3.0a has better convection–circulation coupling than NCAR, it exhibits anomalous MJO convection east of the date line. The wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0-WAV) improves the MJO representation over the default COARE3.0 algorithm. Strong easterlies over the Pacific Ocean in COARE3.0a enhance the latent heat flux (LHFLX). This is responsible for the anomalous MJO propagation after the date line. In COR3.0a-WAV, waves reduce the anomalous easterlies, leading to a decrease in LHFLX and MJO dissipation after the date line. These findings highlight the role of surface fluxes in MJO simulation fidelity. Most importantly, we show that the proper treatment of wave-induced effects in bulk flux parameterization improves the simulation of coupled climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meteoric 10Be Flux Calibration Data for the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA

This data package contains tabular and geospatial data used to quantify and model meteoric beryllium-10 fluxes in the East River watershed, Colorado, USA. The tabular component includes calibration-site data from five glacial moraine sites and includes environmental variables used to evaluate spatial controls on meteoric 10Be delivery, including elevation, mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean snow depth, and mean snow water equivalent (SWE). These site-level data were used to compare observed fluxes with environmental gradients across the watershed and to evaluate the effects of erosion correction on flux estimates. The package also includes supporting slope and curvature values used to assess topographic inputs to the erosion analysis. A second component of the data package contains updated manuscript tables and regression outputs used to summarize the relationships between meteoric 10Be flux and environmental predictors. These tables include meteoric 10Be sample information and AMS results, site-level environmental values, site-level meteoric 10Be inventory and flux values, watershed-averaged predicted fluxes, soil bulk density measurements, fine-fraction values, soil pH measurements, and regression statistics including slope, intercept, coefficient of determination, and p-value. The regression products include both standard linear regressions and regressions in which the intercept is constrained to pass through zero, and they support the analyses presented in the companion manuscript. Together, these tabular files provide the numerical basis for the manuscript tables and the regression-based interpretation of meteoric 10Be flux variability in a snow-dominated mountain watershed. The geospatial component of the package consists of GeoTIFF raster files used to generate the map products presented in Figures 2 and 6 of the companion manuscript. These rasters represent watershed-scale spatial layers for environmental variables and regression-based predictions of meteoric 10Be flux. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), Microsoft Excel files (.xlsx), GeoTIFF raster files (.tif), and upporting metadata files, including CSV data dictionaries and readme text files (.csv, .txt). The tabular files can be opened with standard spreadsheet software, and the raster files can be viewed and analyzed in GIS software such as ArcGIS Pro or QGIS. Together, these files document the numerical and spatial datasets used to calibrate and predict meteoric 10Be delivery in the East River watershed.

East River↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPRUCE: Carbon Dioxide and Methane Soil Flux Measurements at High Temporal Resolution, Beginning in 2022

This data set contains high temporal resolution measurements of greenhouse gas flux (CO2 and CH4) from the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experiment (Hanson et al. 2017) over the growing seasons in 2022 (30-minute resolution) and 2023 (15-minute resolution). Additional data will be appended to this dataset periodically until the close out of the SPRUCE experiment in 2025. This dataset contains two data files in comma-separate (*.csv) format. ABB GLA131-GGA CO2/CH4 gas analyzers, each paired with an Eosense eosMX multiplexer and 2 eosAC-LT automated flux chambers, were deployed from during the 2022 and 2023 growing seasons (2022-06-06 – 2023-10-26). Each SPRUCE experimental enclosure included two Eosense 50 cm diameter flux chambers with 40 cm tall stainless steel collars embedded approximately 15 cm into the peat soil, to measure soil gas flux of peatland ecosystem moss-shrub communities. . Measurements were taken for three minutes, alternating between the flux chambers, with each Eosense flux chamber sampling gas fluxes four times per hour in 2023 and twice per hour for 2022. In addition, time-series environmental data measured at the flux chamber are included: Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), soil temperature, soil volumetric water content (at 10 cm depth), air temperature, soil temperature (0-200 cm depth), and volumetric water at 20 cm depth.

Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Envir↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduction and Agglomeration of Supported Metal Clusters Induced by High-Flux X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy Measurements

Supported metal clusters are widely used in catalysis for many important reactions. To understand the catalytic properties, in situ/operando characterization techniques, such as X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), provide essential details of the size, shape, and chemical composition of the cluster and the nature of the active sites. New-generation synchrotrons combined with focusing beamlines provide high-flux-density X-rays for improved detection sensitivity as well as higher time and spatial resolution. Understanding the effects of a high-flux-density X-ray beam on the catalyst during the actual measurement, whether XAS or another synchrotron-based technique, is crucial. This is especially important for in situ and operando studies where both the high flux density and reaction conditions can affect the catalyst structure. In this work, we investigated the effect of the flux density on rhodium clusters supported on Al 2 O 3 at two different beamlines: National Synchrotron Light Source II beamline 08-ID and Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Light Source (SSRL) beamline 4-1. We show that the higher flux density at beamline 08-ID causes the reduction of the highly dispersed RhO x /Al 2 O 3 catalyst, even at room temperature. Additionally, exposure to the higher flux density X-rays at beamline 08-ID during in situ reduction results in significant agglomeration of the Rh clusters. The final size of the Rh nanoparticles reduced at 310 °C is equivalent to that of particles formed after the reduction at 600–650 °C in the absence of the beam. Significant beam-induced reduction and agglomeration is also shown for Ni supported on beta zeolite during in situ reduction at an intermediate-flux-density beamline 9-3 at SSRL, indicating that beam-induced changes in heterogeneous catalysts could be common at intermediate- and high-flux-density beamlines. We provide precautions and recommendations for detecting and minimizing beam damage during in situ/operando XAS measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pitch Angle Dependence of Electron and Ion Flux Changes During Local Magnetic Dipolarization Inside Geosynchronous Orbit

In this study we have statistically examined flux changes of 1–1,000-keV electrons, and hydrogen, helium, and oxygen ions during local magnetic dipolarization inside geosynchronous orbit, with a focus on their pitch angle dependence. Here, using 144 dipolarization events that were selected in a previous study with Van Allen Probes observations in 2012–2016, we have performed a superposed epoch analysis of differential flux changes after the dipolarization onset for each species. On average the electron flux increases primarily around pitch angle (α) = 90° at >80 keV and almost isotropically at 10–50 keV. The electron flux at <5 keV increases at α = 0° and 180° but slightly decreases (or remains unchanged) at α = 90°. On the other hand, the ion flux at >80 keV increases around α = 90°, while at <30 keV it decreases nearly independent of pitch angle. Only the low-energy (<5 keV) helium and oxygen ion flux changes indicate a strong field-aligned enhancement, which could be attributed to their outflows from the topside ionosphere. After the dipolarization onset, >5-keV electron and >30-keV ion fluxes exhibit a perpendicular anisotropy, which is most pronounced for 50–200-keV electrons. Both distributions become more isotropic with decreasing energy. A noticeable field-aligned anisotropy is seen for <5-keV ion fluxes. These statistical pitch angle-dependent electron and ion properties during dipolarizations may be explained by combining various processes, including adiabatic acceleration and/or transport, wave-particle interactions, and ion outflow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of Energetic Electron Fluxes Measured by GPS and THEMIS Spacecraft in the Inner Magnetosphere

Key elements of space weather models are energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere and the outer radiation belt. Flux depletion is driven by various loss processes: scattering into atmosphere, magnetopause shadowing. Flux enhancement is driven by various acceleration processes: local wave-particle interactions, radial transport, plasma sheet injections. Many of these processes operate on ~ hour timescales. Such mesoscale flux variations are not well traced by equatorial spacecraft with much longer orbits. Energetic electron detectors onboard the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation provide a unique opportunity for probing such ~ hour-scale flux variations. Measurements from up to 23 identically instrumented GPS satellites cover a wide energy and L-shell range with a subhour time resolution. However, their orbits are inclined and thus all measurements at L-shell >4.3 are off-equatorial. Here, in this report, we present a comparison of equatorial THEMIS and nonequatorial GPS measurements of omnidirectional ≤600 keV electron fluxes. Such a comparison allows us to derive coefficients for using off-equatorial GPS fluxes to infer the equatorial values. These coefficients depend on particle energy and L-shell. We demonstrate a new data set derived from GPS measurements and discuss how it can be used to investigate mesoscale dynamics of energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Alternating Conditional Expectations: Introducing a Non‐Parametric Statistical Method to Interpret Long‐Term Greenhouse Gas Flux Measurements Over Semi‐Arid and Wetland Ecosystems

Abstract We explore the potential of using a non‐parametric statistical method called Alternating Conditional Expectations, ACE, to quantify functional relationships in biogeosciences. Here, ACE is used to quantify the non‐linear and multi‐faceted responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to a set of biophysical forcings, when the shapes of those response surfaces are unknown. We evaluated the statistical method over two contrasting ecosystems and two contrasting time steps. One case involved quantifying the biophysical controls of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes over a semi‐arid oak savanna using daily integrated fluxes. The other case evaluated the responses of CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) flux measurements to a set of biophysical forcings at a restored tidal wetland using thirty‐minute averages. The statistical model, based on 4 independent variables, explained up over 90% of the variation in daily integrated flux densities of water vapor and net carbon dioxide exchange at the savanna site. This fit was defined by distinct non‐linear responses to such drivers as gross primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. At the tidal wetland site, we evaluated net carbon dioxide and methane fluxes with short‐term measurements to capture the influence of rising and falling tides and seasonality in biological activity. The statistical model defined the shape of the forcing of fluxes due to the roles of carbon exudates, water table depth, oxygen level in the water column, temperature and vegetation status. The statistical fits of the greenhouse gas fluxes were less precise than the savanna case. The fetch varies on a run‐to‐run basis as it is comprised of a heterogeneous mosaic of open water and vegetation. Furthermore, it is difficult to monitor the environmental conditions of the archaea and bacteria in the sediments that produce methane and carbon dioxide.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling study of divertor particle and heat flux asymmetries for EAST H-mode discharges

The BOUT++ transport code is run to study the effects of plasma drifts on the divertor out-in asymmetries (DOIAs) of particle and heat fluxes and their decay widths for EAST lower single null H-mode discharges. The diamagnetic drift seems to have no effects on the DOIAs of total particle and heat fluxes due to its divergence-free nature. However, it could significantly increase the DOIAs of peak particle and heat fluxes and the flux decay widths. The E × B drift is found to induce a large plasma flow to the divertor region, enhancing the DOIAs of both total and peak particle and heat fluxes and the flux decay widths. Both the radial and poloidal components of the E × B drift are necessary in increasing the DOIAs, however, the radial E × B drift seems to play a more important role. The effects on the DOIAs caused by both diamagnetic and E × B drifts are reversed with the reverse of toroidal magnetic field. The heat flux decay width λ q and spreading width S q are important physical and engineering parameters for the divertors and could be obtained by fitting the heat flux profiles at divertor targets. The λ q at the outer target from the simulation case with all drifts could well match with the multi-machine scaling proposed by Eich and the DOIA of λ q is in reasonable agreement with the scaling proposed by Goldston.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An intercomparison of wall fluxes in a turbulent thermal convection chamber: Direct numerical simulations and wall-modeled large-eddy simulations enhanced by machine learning

Thermal convection in a closed chamber is driven by a warm bottom, a cold top, and side walls at various temperatures. Although wall fluxes are the source of convection energy, accurately modeling these fluxes (i.e., the wall model) is challenging. In large-eddy simulations (LESs), many wall models are traditionally derived from the canonical boundary layer, which may be unsuitable for thermal convection bounded by both horizontal and vertical walls. This study conducts a model intercomparison of dry convection in a cubic-meter chamber using three direct numerical simulations (DNSs) and four LESs with different wall models. The LESs employ traditional wall models, a new wall model employing physics-aware neural networks, and a refined grid near the walls. The experiment involves four cases with varying sidewall temperatures. Our results show that LESs capture the main flow features and the trends of mean fluxes. The physics-aware neural networks and refined wall grids can improve the temporally averaged local fluxes when the large-scale circulation has a preferred direction. Even without the local improvement of wall fluxes, the LES flow quantities (temperature and velocities) can still largely match those in DNSs, provided the mean flux largely matches the DNSs. Additionally, DNSs reveal that a variation in corner treatments has minimal impacts on the flow quantities away from corners. Finally, LESs underestimate the mean fluxes of the entire wall due to their inability to resolve corner regions, but their mean flux away from the corner can better match DNS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate flux predictions using tissue-specific gene expression in plant metabolic modeling

The accurate prediction of complex phenotypes such as metabolic fluxes in living systems is a grand challenge for systems biology and central to efficiently identifying biotechnological interventions that can address pressing industrial needs. The application of gene expression data to improve the accuracy of metabolic flux predictions using mechanistic modeling methods such as flux balance analysis (FBA) has not been previously demonstrated in multi-tissue systems, despite their biotechnological importance. We hypothesized that a method for generating metabolic flux predictions informed by relative expression levels between tissues would improve prediction accuracy. Relative gene expression levels derived from multiple transcriptomic and proteomic datasets were integrated into FBA predictions of a multi-tissue, diel model of Arabidopsis thaliana’s central metabolism. This integration dramatically improved the agreement of flux predictions with experimentally based flux maps from 13 C metabolic flux analysis compared with a standard parsimonious FBA approach. Disagreement between FBA predictions and MFA flux maps was measured using weighted averaged percent error values, and for parsimonious FBA this was 169%–180% for high light conditions and 94%–103% for low light conditions, depending on the gene expression dataset used. This fell to 10%-13% and 9%-11% upon incorporating expression data into the modeling process, which also substantially altered the predicted carbon and energy economy of the plant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Red Noise Ocean Forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Assessed from Surface Heat Flux: Theory and Application

The role of ocean forcing on Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is assessed from the (downward) heat flux–SST relation in the framework of a new stochastic climate theory forced by red noise ocean forcing. Previous studies suggested that atmospheric forcing drives SST variability from monthly to interannual time scales, with a positive heat flux–SST correlation, while heat flux induced by ocean processes can drive SST variability at decadal and longer time scales, with a negative heat flux–SST correlation. Here, first, we develop a theory to show how the sign of heat flux–SST correlation is affected by atmospheric and oceanic forcing with time scale. In particular, a red noise ocean forcing is necessary for the sign reversal of heat flux–SST correlation. Furthermore, this sign reversal can be detected equivalently in three approaches: the low-pass correlation at lag zero, the unfiltered correlation at long (heat flux) lead, and the real part of the heat flux–SST coherence. Second, we develop a new scheme in combination with the theory to assess the magnitude and time scale of the red noise ocean forcing for AMV in the GFDL SPEAR model (Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research) and observations. In both the model and observations, the ocean forcing on AMV is in general comparable with the atmospheric forcing, with a 90% probability greater than the atmospheric forcing in observations. In contrast to the white noise atmospheric forcing, the ocean forcing has a persistence time comparable or longer than a year, much longer than the SST persistence of ~3 months. This slow ocean forcing is associated implicitly with slow subsurface ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s Response to CO2 Increase: Assessing the Roles of Surface Flux and Oceanic Advection Feedbacks

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected to slow down in climate models due to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the physical mechanisms determining the rate of the projected AMOC slowdown remain unclear. Accordingly, this study isolates the roles of oceanic advection and surface flux feedbacks that might accelerate or decelerate the AMOC’s weakening using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quadrupling simulations in the CESM1.2 model. Surface flux feedbacks are isolated in partially coupled experiments in which either all surface flux components or the momentum flux responses to AMOC’s weakening that might provide feedback are suppressed, while a tracer decomposition of ocean density anomalies isolates the advection feedbacks. Comparing the ocean density components in the experiments shows that the AMOC’s response is initially determined by CO 2 -induced anomalous surface heat fluxes, and afterward, feedbacks determine its response. In the fully coupled case, surface heat flux feedback strongly promotes AMOC slowdown and causes its near shutdown, while a weaker but active AMOC is maintained when the surface flux feedback is inhibited in the partially coupled case. The positive surface heat flux feedback works by canceling out the negative oceanic heat advection feedback on deep-water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). With the heat advection feedback thus reduced, the positive salinity advection feedback becomes the dominant contributor to SPNA density changes and deep-water formation. In the partially coupled case, negative ocean heat advection feedback and the CO 2 -induced subtropical Atlantic saline anomalies imported into the SPNA play a stabilizing role. The results highlight the importance of SPNA salinity gradients and gyre circulation strength in determining the AMOC’s response rate or recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Snow thermal conductivity and conductive flux in the Central Arctic: Estimates from observations and implications for models

During the Arctic winter, the conductive heat flux through the sea ice and snow balances the radiative and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. Snow on sea ice is a thermal insulator that reduces the magnitude of the conductive flux. The thermal conductivity of snow, that is, how readily energy is conducted, is known to vary significantly in time and space from observations, but most forecast and climate models use a constant value. This work begins with a demonstration of the importance of snow thermal conductivity in a regional coupled forecast model. Varying snow thermal conductivity impacts the magnitudes of all surface fluxes, not just conduction, and their responses to atmospheric forcing. Given the importance of snow thermal conductivity in models, we use observations from sea ice mass balance buoys installed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition to derive the profiles of thermal conductivity, density, and conductive flux. From 13 sites, median snow thermal conductivity ranges from 0.33 W m −1 K −1 to 0.47 W m −1 K −1 with a median from all data of 0.39 W m −1 K −1 from October to February. In terms of surface energy budget closure, estimated conductive fluxes are generally smaller than the net atmospheric flux by as much as 20 W m −2 , but the average residual during winter is −6 W m −2 , which is within the uncertainties. The spatial variability of conductive heat flux is highest during clear and cold time periods. Higher surface temperature, which often occurs during cloudy conditions, and thicker snowpacks reduce temporal and spatial variability. These relationships are compared between observations and the coupled forecast model, emphasizing both the importance and challenge of describing thermodynamic parameters of snow cover for modeling the Arctic as a coupled system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗