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At least 127 records · Page 7

Improvement of Shelf Life for Space Food Through a Hurdle Approach

The processed and prepackaged spaceflight food system is a critical human support system for manned space flights. As missions extend longer and farther from Earth over the next 20 years, strategies to stabilize the nutritional and sensory quality of food must be identified. For a mission to Mars, the space foods themselves must maintain quality for up to 5 years to align with cargo prepositioning scenarios. Optimizing the food system to achieve a 5-year shelf life mitigates the risk of an inadequate food system during extended missions. Because previous attempts to determine a singular pathway to a 5-year shelf life for food were unsuccessful, this investigation combines several approaches, based on science, technological advancement, and past empirical evidence, that will define the prepackaged food system for long duration missions. This study supports the Advanced Food Technology strategic planning process by identifying food processing, packaging, and storage technologies that will be required for exploration missions and the extent that they must be implemented to achieve a 5-year shelf life for the entire food system.

Sirmons, T. A.↗

Current state and future projections of drying processes in the US food and pulp and paper sectors: Energy, economic, and environmental assessment

The pulp and paper (P/P) and food sectors are the third- and fifth-largest industrial energy consumers in the United States, with total on-site energy consumption of 2,039 TBtu and 1,144 TBtu, respectively. Thermal drying processes for moisture removal, which are energy-intensive, play a critical role in both industries. This study is the first to evaluate state- and national-level US drying energy demand for these sectors from 2020 to 2050. To complete this evaluation, we developed a thermodynamic modeling framework integrated with economic and environmental models to compute product-specific drying energy intensity and estimate the sector-specific costs and emissions profiles associated with drying operations. The model-predicted energy intensity was validated against the literature. Using current and projected annual production volumes in these sectors, we estimated total drying energy use. Results indicate that drying accounts for 22 % of total energy consumption in the P/P sector and 10 % in the food sector. The estimated annual energy cost (2020) to operate thermal dryers is $\$$919 M in the P/P sector and $\$$417 M in the food sector. Additionally, drying contributes to 25 % of total CO 2 e emissions in the P/P sector (including biogenic) and 15 % of emissions in the food sector. Regional performance shows that the Southern US is the leading energy consumer for P/P drying, whereas the Midwest leads in food drying. This study presents both potential solutions to enhance drying efficiency and barriers to implementation. Energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon fuels, and electrification are discussed as key pathways for reducing costs and optimizing industrial drying processes.

3E analysis↗

Pre- and Post-Production Processes Increasingly Dominate Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Agri-Food Systems

We present results from the FAOSTAT emissions shares database, covering emissions from agri-food systems and their shares to total anthropogenic emissions for 196 countries and 40 territories for the period 1990–2019. We find that in 2019, global agri-food system emissions were 16.5 (95 %; CI range: 11–22) billion metric tonnes (GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), corresponding to 31%(range: 19 %–43 %) of total anthropogenic emissions. Of the agri-food system total, global emissions within the farm gate – from crop and livestock production processes including on-farm energy use – were 7.2 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1); emissions from land use change, due to deforestation and peatland degradation, were 3.5 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1); and emissions from pre- and post-production processes – manufacturing of fertilizers, food processing, packaging, transport, retail, household consumption and food waste disposal – were 5.8 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1). Over the study period 1990–2019, agri-food system emissions increased in total by 17 %, largely driven by a doubling of emissions from pre- and post-production processes. Conversely, the FAOSTAT data show that since 1990 land use emissions decreased by 25 %, while emissions within the farm gate increased 9 %. In 2019, in terms of individual greenhouse gases (GHGs), pre- and postproduction processes emitted the most CO2 (3.9 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)), preceding land use change (3.3 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)) and farm gate (1.2 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)) emissions. Conversely, farm gate activities were by far the major emitter of methane (140 MtCH4 yr(exp -1)) and of nitrous oxide (7.8 MtN2Oyr(exp -1)). Pre- and post-production processes were also significant emitters of methane (49 MtCH4 yr(exp -1)), mostly generated from the decay of solid food waste in landfills and open dumps. One key trend over the 30-year period since 1990 highlighted by our analysis is the increasingly important role of food-related emissions generated outside of agricultural land, in pre- and post-production processes along the agri-food system, at global, regional and national scales. In fact, our data show that by 2019, pre- and post-production processes had overtaken farm gate processes to become the largest GHG component of agri-food system emissions in Annex I parties (2.2 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)). They also more than doubled in non-Annex I parties (to 3.5 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), becoming larger than emissions from land use change. By 2019 food supply chains had become the largest agri-food system component in China (1100 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), the USA (700 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)) and the EU-27 (600 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)). This has important repercussions for food-relevant national mitigation strategies, considering that until recently these have focused mainly on reductions of non-CO2 gases within the farm gate and on CO2 mitigation from land use change. The information used in this work is available as open data with DOI https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5615082 (Tubiello et al., 2021d). It is also available to users via the FAOSTAT database (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/EM; FAO, 2021a), with annual updates.

FAOSTAT agri-food systems emissions database↗

Influence of Hydroponically Grown Hoyt Soybeans and Radiation Encountered on Mars Missions on the Yield and Quality of Soymilk and Tofu

Soybeans were chosen for hmar and planetary missions due to their nutritive value and ability to produce oil and protein for further food applications. However, soybeans must be processed into foods prior to crew consumption. Wilson et al. (2003) raised questions about (1) the influence of radiation (on germination and functional properties) that the soybeans would be exposed to during bulk storage for a Mars mission, and (2) the impact of using hydroponically grown versus field grown soybeans on the yield and quality of soyfoods. The influence of radiation can be broken down into two components: (A) affect of surface pasteurization to ensure the astronauts safety from food-borne illnesses (a Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point), and (B) affect of the amount of radiation the soybeans receive during a Mars mission. Decreases in the amount of natural antioxidants and free radical formation and oxidation induced changes in the soybean (lipid, protein, etc.) will influence the nutritional value, texture, quality, and safety of soyfoods made from them. The objectives of this project are to (1) evaluate the influence of gamma and electron beam radiation on bulk soybeans (HACCP, CCP) on the microbial load, germination, ease of processing, and quality of soymilk and tofu; (2) provide scale up and mass balance data for Advanced Life Support subsystems including Biomass, Solid Waste Processing, and Water Recovery Systems; and (3) to compare Hoyt field grown to hydroponically grown Hoyt soybeans for soymilk and tofu production. The soybean cultivar Hoyt, a small standing, high protein cultivar that could grow hydroponically in the AIMS facility on Mars) was evaluated for the production of soymilk and tofu. The quality and yield of the soymilk and tofu from hydroponic Hoyt, was compared to Vinton 81 (a soyfood industry standard), field Hoyt, IA 2032LS (lipoxygenase-free), and Proto (high protein and antioxidant potential). Soymilk and tofu were produced using the Japanese method. The soymilk was coagulated with calcium sulfate dihydrate. Soybeans and tofu were evaluated using chemical, microbial, and instrumental sensory methods. The surface radiation of whole dry soybeans using electron beam or gamma rays at 10 or 30 kGy did provide microbial safety for the astronauts. However, these doses caused oxidative changes that resulted in tofu with rancid aroma, darkening of the tofu, lower tofu yields, more solid waste, and loss of the ability of the seeds to germinate. While lower doses may reduce these problems, we lose the ability to insure microbial safety (cross-contamination) of bulk soybeans for the astronauts. Counter measures could include vacuum packaging, radiating under freezing conditions. A No Effect Dose for food quality, below 10 kGy needs to be determined. Better estimates of the radiation that the food will be exposed to need to determined and shared. Appropriate shielding for the food as well as the astronauts needs to be developed. The Hoyt soybean did not provide a high yielding, high quality tofu. A new small scale system for evaluating soybeans was developed using 50 g quantities of soybeans.

Wilson, Lester A.↗

Alternative Food Preservation Techniques, New Technology in Food Preparation and Appropriateness of Food Supply for the Permanently Manned Space Station

Alternative food preservation techniques are defined as unique processes and combinations of currently used processes for food preservation. Food preservation is the extension of the useful shelf-life of normally perishable foods (from harvest to final consumption) by controlling micro-organisms, enzymes, chemical changes, changes in sensory characteristics and the prevention of subsequent recontamination. The resulting products must comply with all applicable food manufacturing practice regulations and be safe. Most of the foods currently used in both space and military feeding are stabilized either by dehydration or the use of a terminal sterilization process. Other available options would be formulation to reduce water activity, the refrigeration and freezing of perishable foods, chemical addition, and physical treatment (ionizing or nonionizing radiation or mechanical action). These alternatives are considered and proposals made.

Richard H. Whelan↗

NASA's Advanced Life Support Systems Human-Rated Test Facility

Future NASA missions to explore the solar system will be long-duration missions, requiring human life support systems which must operate with very high reliability over long periods of time. Such systems must be highly regenerative, requiring minimum resupply, to enable the crews to be largely self-sufficient. These regenerative life support systems will use a combination of higher plants, microorganisms, and physicochemical processes to recycle air and water, produce food, and process wastes. A key step in the development of these systems is establishment of a human-rated test facility specifically tailored to evaluation of closed, regenerative life supports systems--one in which long-duration, large-scale testing involving human test crews can be performed. Construction of such a facility, the Advanced Life Support Program's (ALS) Human-Rated Test Facility (HRTF), has begun at NASA's Johnson Space Center, and definition of systems and development of initial outfitting concepts for the facility are underway. This paper will provide an overview of the HRTF project plan, an explanation of baseline configurations, and descriptive illustrations of facility outfitting concepts.

NASA Discipline Number 61-10↗

Food Fortification Stability Study

NASA has established the goal of traveling beyond low-Earth orbit and extending manned exploration to Mars. The extended length of a Mars mission, along with the lack of resupply missions increases the importance of nutritional content in the food system. The purpose of this research is to assess the stability of vitamin supplementation in traditionally processed spaceflight foods. It is expected that commercially available fortificants will remain stable through long-duration missions if proper formulation, processing, and storage temperatures are all achieved. Five vitamins (vitamin E, vitamin K, pantothenic acid, folic acid, and thiamin) were blended into a vitamin premix (DSM, Freeport, TX); premixes were formulated to be compatible with current processing techniques (retort or freeze-dried), varied water activities (high or low), and packaging material. The overall goal of this process is to provide 25% of the recommended daily intake of each vitamin (per serving), following processing and two years of ambient storage. Four freeze-dried foods (Scrambled Eggs, Italian Vegetables, Potatoes Au Gratin, Noodles and Chicken) and four thermostabilized foods (Curry Sauce with Vegetables, Chicken Noodle Soup, Grilled Pork Chop, Rice with Butter) were produced (with and without the vitamin premix), to assess the impact of the added fortificant on color and taste, and to determine the stability of supplemental vitamins in spaceflight foods. The use of fortification in spaceflight foods appears to be a plausible mitigation step to inadequate nutrition. This is due to the ease of vitamin addition as well as the sustainability of the premixes through initial processing steps. Postprocessing analysis indicated that vitamin fortification with this premix did not immediately impact organoleptic properties of the food. At this stage, the largest hurdle to fortification is the preciseness to which vitamins can be added; the total amount of vitamins required for production is 10 - 20 grams, a minor percentage of the formulation. As demonstrated by the over-fortification measured in Italian Vegetables and Grilled Pork Chop, homogeneity may be difficult to achieve with such small amounts. Thus, pouch-to-pouch variability, over-fortification, and underfortification may ensue if a method for precise addition is not identified. Stability will continue to be evaluated over two years of storage at three temperatures, and future analysis should reveal the extent to which this issue should be a concern

Abdulmalik, T. O.↗

Extension of Space Food Shelf Life Through Hurdle Approach

The processed and prepackaged space food system is the main source of crew nutrition, and hence central to astronaut health and performance. Unfortunately, space food quality and nutrition degrade to unacceptable levels in two to three years with current food stabilization technologies. Future exploration missions will require a food system that remains safe, acceptable and nutritious through five years of storage within vehicle resource constraints. The potential of stabilization technologies (alternative storage temperatures, processing, formulation, ingredient source, packaging, and preparation procedures), when combined in hurdle approach, to mitigate quality and nutritional degradation is being assessed. Sixteen representative foods from the International Space Station food system were chosen for production and analysis and will be evaluated initially and at one, three, and five years with potential for analysis at seven years if necessary. Analysis includes changes in color, texture, nutrition, sensory quality, and rehydration ratio when applicable. The food samples will be stored at -20 C, 4 C, and 21 C. Select food samples will also be evaluated at -80 C to determine the impacts of ultra-cold storage after one and five years. Packaging film barrier properties and mechanical integrity will be assessed before and after processing and storage. At the study conclusion, if tested hurdles are adequate, formulation, processing, and storage combinations will be uniquely identified for processed food matrices to achieve a five-year shelf life. This study will provide one of the most comprehensive investigations of long duration food stability ever completed, and the achievement of extended food system stability will have profound impacts to health and performance for spaceflight crews and for relief efforts and military applications on Earth.

Cooper, M. R.↗

Device and Container for Reheating and Sterilization

Long-duration space missions require the development of improved foods and novel packages that do not represent a significant disposal issue. In addition, it would also be desirable if rapid heating technologies could be used on Earth as well, to improve food quality during a sterilization process. For this purpose, a package equipped with electrodes was developed that will enable rapid reheating of contents via ohmic heating to serving temperature during space vehicle transit. Further, the package is designed with a resealing feature, which enables the package, once used, to contain and sterilize waste, including human waste for storage prior to jettison during a long-duration mission. Ohmic heating is a technology that has been investigated on and off for over a century. Literature indicates that foods processed by ohmic heating are of superior quality to their conventionally processed counterparts. This is due to the speed and uniformity of ohmic heating, which minimizes exposure of sensitive materials to high temperatures. In principle, the material may be heated rapidly to sterilization conditions, cooled rapidly, and stored. The ohmic heating device herein is incorporated within a package. While this by itself is not novel, a reusable feature also was developed with the intent that waste may be stored and re-sterilized within the packages. These would then serve a useful function after their use in food processing and storage. The enclosure should be designed to minimize mass (and for NASA's purposes, Equivalent System Mass, or ESM), while enabling the sterilization function. It should also be electrically insulating. For this reason, Ultem high-strength, machinable electrical insulator was used.

Sastry, Sudhir K.↗

An Operational Overview of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) Northeast Pacific Field Deployment

The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) field campaign is to develop a predictive understanding of the export, fate, and carbon cycle impacts of global ocean net primary production. To accomplish this goal, observations of export flux pathways, plankton community composition, food web processes, and optical, physical, and biogeochemical (BGC) properties are needed over a range of ecosystem states. Here we introduce the first EXPORTS field deployment to Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific Ocean during summer of 2018, providing context for other papers in this special collection. The experiment was conducted with two ships: a Process Ship, focused on ecological rates, BGC fluxes, temporal changes in food web, and BGC and optical properties, that followed an instrumented Lagrangian float; and a Survey Ship that sampled BGC and optical properties in spatial patterns around the Process Ship. An array of autonomous underwater assets provided measurements over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and partnering programs and remote sensing observations provided additional observational context. The oceanographic setting was typical of late-summer conditions at Ocean Station Papa: a shallow mixed layer, strong vertical and weak horizontal gradients in hydrographic properties, sluggish sub-inertial currents, elevated macronutrient concentrations and low phytoplankton abundances. Although nutrient concentrations were consistent with previous observations, mixed layer chlorophyll was lower than typically observed, resulting in a deeper euphotic zone. Analyses of surface layer temperature and salinity found three distinct surface water types, allowing for diagnosis of whether observed changes were spatial or temporal.The 2018 EXPORTS field deployment is among the most comprehensive biological pump studies ever conducted. A second deployment to the North Atlantic Ocean occurred in spring 2021, which will be followed by focused work on data synthesis and modeling using the entire EXPORTS data set.

Biological pump↗

Annual report

The overall goal of the Tuskegee University Center for Food Production, Processing and Waste Management in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) is to provide tested information and technologies applicable to bioregenerative food production systems for life support on long-term manned space mission. Specifically, the center is developing information, computer simulated models, methodologies and technology for sweetpotato and peanut biomass production and processing, inclusive of waste management and recycling of these crops selected by NASA for CELSS. The Center is organized into interdisciplinary teams of life scientists and engineers that work together on specific objectives and long-term goals. Integral to the goal of the Center is the development of both basic and applied research information and the training of young scientists and engineers, especially underrepresented minorities that will increase the professional pool in these disciplines and contribute to the advancement of space sciences and exploration.

Source record↗

Food Fortification Stability Study

NASA has established the goal of traveling beyond low-Earth orbit and extending manned exploration to Mars. The length of proposed Mars missions and the lack of resupply missions increases the importance of nutritional content in the food system, which will need a five year shelf life. The purpose of this research is to assess the stability of vitamin supplementation in traditionally processed spaceflight foods. It is expected that commercially available fortification nutrients will remain stable through a long duration exploration mission at sufficient levels if compatible formulation, processing, and storage temperatures are achieved. Five vitamins (vitamin E, vitamin K, pantothenic acid, folic acid, and thiamin) were blended into a vitamin premix (DSM, Freeport, TX) such that the vitamin concentration per serving equaled 25% of the recommended daily intake after two years of ambient storage. Four freeze-dried foods (Scrambled Eggs, Italian Vegetables, Potatoes Au Gratin, Noodles and Chicken) and four thermostabilized foods (Curry Sauce with Vegetables, Chicken Noodle Soup, Grilled Pork Chop, Rice with Butter) were produced, with and without the vitamin premix, to assess the impact of the added fortification on color and taste and to determine the stability of supplemental vitamins in spaceflight foods. The addition of fortification to spaceflight foods did not greatly alter the organoleptic properties of most products. In most cases, overall acceptability scores remained above 6.0 (minimum acceptable score) following six months and one year of low-temperature storage. Likewise, the color of fortified products appears to be preserved over one year of storage. The only exception was Grilled pork Chop and Chicken Noodle Soup whose individual components appear to degrade rapidly over one year of storage. Finally, most vitamins appear to be stable during long-term storage. The only exception was thiamin, which degraded rapidly during the first year of storage at 35˚C. It was previously believed that the imprecise method of fortification would prove problematic for nutrient quantification; however this was only an issue in stored samples of Grilled Pork Chop, Italian Vegetables and Curry Sauce with Vegetables. Year two data may further reveal the extent to which this is a problem, as well as identify overall quality changes over time.

Sirmons, T.↗

Food Fortification Stability Study

NASA has established the goal of traveling beyond low-Earth orbit and extending manned exploration to Mars. The length of proposed Mars missions and the lack of resupply missions increases the importance of nutritional content in the food system, which will need a five-year shelf life. The purpose of this research is to assess the stability of vitamin supplementation in traditionally processed spaceflight foods. It is expected that commercially available fortification nutrients will remain stable through a long duration exploration mission at sufficient levels if compatible formulation, processing, and storage temperatures are achieved. Five vitamins (vitamin E, vitamin K, pantothenic acid, folic acid, and thiamin) were blended into a vitamin premix (DSM, Freeport, TX) such that the vitamin concentration per serving equaled 25% of the recommended daily intake after two years of ambient storage. Four freeze-dried foods (Scrambled Eggs, Italian Vegetables, Potatoes Au Gratin, Noodles and Chicken) and four thermo-stabilized foods (Curry Sauce with Vegetables, Chicken Noodle Soup, Grilled Pork Chop, Rice with Butter) were produced, with and without the vitamin premix, to assess the impact of the added fortification on color and taste and to determine the stability of supplemental vitamins in spaceflight foods. The addition of fortification to spaceflight foods did not greatly alter the organoleptic properties of most products. In most cases, overall acceptability scores remained above 6.0 (minimum acceptable score) following six months and one year of low-temperature storage. Likewise, the color of fortified products appears to be preserved over one year of storage. The only exceptions were Grilled pork Chop and Chicken Noodle Soup whose individual components appeareddegrade rapidly over one year of storage. Finally, most vitamins appeared to be stable during long-term storage. The only exception was thiamin, which degraded rapidly during the first year of storage at 35˚C. It was previously believed that the imprecise method of fortification would prove problematic for nutrient quantification; however, this was only an issue in stored samples of Grilled Pork Chop, Italian Vegetables and Curry Sauce with Vegetables. Year two data may further reveal the extent to which this is a problem, as well as identify overall quality changes over time.

Sirmons, T.↗

Upgrading biocrude oil into sustainable aviation fuel using zeolite-supported iron-molybdenum carbide nanocatalysts

Food waste is an underdeveloped source for production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Now, there is no certified conversion process of food waste for SAF by American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). We report the use of zeolite-supported molybdenum carbide nanocatalysts in upgrading biocrudes, produced from food wastes through HTL, into SAF precursors. Our data show a complete removal of oxygen from the biocrude through hydrodeoxygenation and a higher heating value of 46.5 MJ/kg, which is comparable to that of Jet A (46.1 MJ/kg). The prescreening tests (tier alpha and beta) show the average carbon number of the distillation cut (150° to 230°C) of upgraded fuel is 10.6, close to the value of 11.4 for average conventional jet fuel, and the specifications of properties including surface tension, viscosity, heating value, flash point, and freezing point were found to meet the standards of SAF. The metal carbide nanocatalysts were reusable in upgrading tests, and the activity of deoxygenation was retained.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Current Concepts and Future Directions of CELSS

Bioregenerative life support systems for use in space were studied. Concepts of such systems include the use of higher plants and/or microalgae as sources of food, potable water and oxygen, and as sinks for carbon dioxide and metabolic wastes. Recycling of materials within the system will require processing of food organism and crew wastes using microbiological and/or physical chemical techniques. The dynamics of material flow within the system will require monitoring, control, stabilization and maintenance imposed by computers. Studies included higher plant and algal physiology, environmental responses, and control; flight experiments for testing responses of organisms to weightlessness and increased radiation levels; and development of ground based facilities for the study of recycling within a bioregenerative life support system.

Macelroy, R. D.↗

The CELSS program - An overview of its structure and use of computer modelling

NASA has initiated a research program, CELSS, directed at the acquisition of the knowledge and technology required for the development of an autonomous, regenerative life support system. The program is structured to promote effective, cooperative research in fundamental, applied and engineering science. The initial research thrusts involve investigations into problems of food production, waste processing and system control and integration. In the area of food production both conventional, higher plant-based processes as well as chemosynthetic food production technologies are being investigated. Alternative waste processing procedures, both biological and physicochemical, are being examined. Computer based modelling as an aid to design and analysis is an integral part of the approach to system control and management. A mass balance model depicting the flow of elemental mass in a conceptualized closed, regenerative life support system is described.

Averner, M. M.↗

Energy and nutrient recovery from municipal and industrial waste and wastewater—a perspective

This publication highlights the latest advancements in the field of energy and nutrient recovery from organics rich municipal and industrial waste and wastewater. Energy and carbon rich waste streams are multifaceted, including municipal solid waste, industrial waste, agricultural by-products and residues, beached or residual seaweed biomass from post-harvest processing, and food waste, and are valuable resources to overcome current limitations with sustainable feedstock supply chains for biorefining approaches. The emphasis will be on the most recent scientific progress in the area, including the development of new and innovative technologies, such as microbial processes and the role of biofilms for the degradation of organic pollutants in wastewater, as well as the production of biofuels and value-added products from organic waste and wastewater streams. The carboxylate platform, which employs microbiomes to produce mixed carboxylic acids through methane-arrested anaerobic digestion, is the focus as a new conversion technology. Nutrient recycling from conventional waste streams such as wastewater and digestate, and the energetic valorization of such streams will also be discussed. The selected technologies significantly contribute to advanced waste and wastewater treatment and support the recovery and utilization of carboxylic acids as the basis to produce many useful and valuable products, including food and feed preservatives, human and animal health supplements, solvents, plasticizers, lubricants, and even biofuels such as sustainable aviation fuel.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Earth System Interactions for Sustainable Food Production Via Expert Elicitation

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

Expert knowledge elicitation↗