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46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
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Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model
Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Quantifying the impact of the Si/O interface in CCSN explosions using the Force Explosion Condition
ABSTRACT The explosion mechanism of a core-collapse supernova (SN) is a complex interplay between neutrino heating and cooling (including the effects of neutrino-driven convection), the gravitational potential, and the ram pressure of the infalling material. To analyse the post-bounce phase of an SN, one can use the generalized force explosion condition (FEC+), which succinctly formalizes the interplay among these four phenomena in an analytical condition, consistent with realistic simulations. In this paper, we use the FEC+ to study the post-bounce phase of 341 spherically symmetric simulations, where convection is included through a time-dependent mixing-length approach. We find that the accretion of the Si/O interface through the expanding shock can significantly change the outcome of the SN by driving the FEC+ above the explosion threshold. We systematically explore this by (i) artificially smoothing the pre-SN density profile, and (ii) artificially varying the mixing length. In both cases, we find that large-enough density contrasts at the Si/O interface lead to successful shock revival only if the FEC+ is already close to the explosion threshold. Furthermore, we find that the accretion of the Si/O interface has a substantial effect on the critical condition for SN explosions, contributing between 5 and 15 per cent, depending on how pronounced the density contrast at the interface is. Earlier studies showed that convection affects the critical condition by 25–30 per cent, which demonstrates that the accretion of the Si/O interface through the shock can play a nearly comparable role in influencing shock dynamics.
Boccioli, Luca (ORCID:000000024819310X)↗
Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives
Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Pronghorn: A Multidimensional Coarse Mesh Application for Advanced Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics
This paper presents an overview of Pronghorn, a multiscale thermal-hydraulic (T/H) application developed by Idaho National Laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley. Pronghorn, built on the open-source finite element Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), leverages state-of-the-art physical models, numerical methods, and nonlinear solvers to deliver fast-running advanced reactor T/H simulation capabilities within a modern software engineering environment. This work summarizes the physical models, multiphysics and multiscale coupling, and numerical discretization in Pronghorn with emphasis on our initial target application to pebble bed reactors (PBRs). A diverse set of applications are shown to depressurized natural circulation in the SANA experiments, forced convection in the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, three-dimensional (3-D)/one-dimensional coupling of Pronghorn and RELAP-7 systems T/H for loop analysis in the High Temperature Reactor Power Module, and forced convection in the Mark-1 Pebble Bed Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor. A multiphysics coupling of Pronghorn, RELAP-7, and Griffin deterministic neutronics for a gas-cooled PBR demonstrates the capability of the MOOSE framework for reactor design calculations. These applications highlight the verification and validation underlying Pronghorn’s software development while emphasizing features that improve upon capabilities offered by legacy tools in areas such as 3-D unstructured meshing, physics modeling, and multiphysics coupling.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Constraining aerosol–cloud adjustments by uniting surface observations with a perturbed parameter ensemble
Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are the largest source of uncertainty in inferring the magnitude of future warming consistent with the observational record. The effective radiative forcing due to ACI (ERFaci) is dominated by liquid clouds and is composed of two terms: the change in cloud albedo due to redistributing liquid over a larger number of cloud droplets (Nd) and the change in cloud macrophysical properties due to changes in cloud microphysics. These terms are, respectively, referred to as the radiative forcing due to ACI (RFaci) and aerosol–cloud adjustments. While the magnitude of RFaci is uncertain, its sign is confidently negative and results in a cooling in the historical record. In contrast, the adjustment of cloud liquid water path (LWP) to enhanced Nd and associated radiative forcing is uncertain in sign. Increased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with precipitation suppression, while decreased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with enhanced evaporation from cloud top. Observational constraints of these processes are poor in part because of causal ambiguity in the relationship between Nd and LWP. To better understand this relationship, precipitation (P), Nd, and LWP surface observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory are combined with the output from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6). This allows for causal interpretation of observed covariability. Observations of precipitation and cloud from ENA constrain the range of possible LWP aerosol–cloud adjustments relative to the prior from the PPE by 15 %, resulting in a global value that is confidently positive (a historical cooling) ranging from 2.1 to 6.9 g m−2. It is found that observed covariability between Nd and LWP is dominated by coalescence scavenging and that this observed covariability is not strongly related to aerosol–cloud adjustments.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming
Abstract Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of $$+0.2\pm 0.11$$ + 0.2 ± 0.11 Wm −2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A hybrid porous model for full reactor core scale CFD investigation of a prismatic HTGR
Three-dimensional (3-D) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of a whole nuclear reactor core is a tremendous challenge due to the large geometric volume and complex structures. Here, this research presents a hybrid porous (HP) model to simplify a prismatic High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) core, so 3-D CFD investigation can be performed on a full reactor core scale. In the HP model, the prototypic small coolant channels in the nuclear fuel blocks are lumped together to form multiple equivalent large coolant channels, and then the porous medium flow model is applied to each of them. Therefore, heat transfer in fuel blocks is computed by a hybrid combination of solid energy and porous flow energy equations. The similarity between the HP model and prototypic model is achieved by deriving the porous flow permeability, inertial resistance factor, and artificial thermophysical properties. Compared with the widely used whole porous (WP) flow model, the HP model preserves more realistic geometric structures, and therefore more accurate physical processes. The General Atomics' Modular High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (MHTGR) design was chosen as a prototype to demonstrate the methodology. Simulations were performed using the prototypic CFD model and HP model at steady-state forced circulation, steady-state natural circulation, and transient conditions that correspond to normal operation, extended period of pressurized cool down, and short-term transients after reactor shutdown, respectively. The comparison shows good agreement between the HP model and prototypic model in the maximum fuel temperature, average solid temperature, and helium flow rate, which demonstrates the potential applicability of the HP model for a full reactor core scale simulation in the future. As a benefit, the HP model reduces the mesh quantity by a factor of 50 from a prototypic model. Correspondingly, the computation time was reduced by a factor of at least 30.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to Mt. Pinatubo volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment
Large volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere have caused marked perturbations to the global climate including cooling at the Earth's surface, changes in large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns and marked temporary reductions in global ocean heat content. Many studies have investigated these effects using climate models; however, uncertainties remain in the modelled response to these eruptions. This is due in part to the diversity of forcing datasets that are used to prescribe the distribution of stratospheric aerosols resulting from these volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in optical property derivations from these datasets. To improve this situation for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a two-step process was undertaken. First, a combined stratospheric aerosol dataset, the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC; 1979–2016), was constructed. Next, GloSSAC, along with information from ice cores and Sun photometers, was used to generate aerosol distributions, characteristics and optical properties to construct a more consistent stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset for models participating in CMIP6. This “version 3” of the stratospheric aerosol forcing has been endorsed for use in all contributing CMIP6 simulations. Recent updates to the underlying GloSSAC from version 1 to version 1.1 affected the 1991–1994 period and necessitated an update to the stratospheric aerosol forcing from version 3 to version 4. As version 3 remains the official CMIP6 input, quantification of the impact on radiative forcing and climate is both relevant and timely for interpreting results from experiments such as the CMIP6 historical simulations. This study uses two models, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1), to estimate the difference in instantaneous radiative forcing in simulated post-Pinatubo climate response when using version 4 instead of version 3. Differences in temperature, precipitation and radiative forcings are generally found to be small compared to internal variability. An exception to this is differences in monthly temperature anomalies near 24 km altitude in the tropics, which can be as large as 3 °C following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Climate Forcing of Bioenergy Feedstocks: Insights From Carbon and Energy Flux Measurements
Bioenergy from biofuels has the potential to slow growing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by reducing fossil fuel use. However, growing bioenergy feedstocks is a land-intensive process. In the United States, the recent expansion of maize bioethanol has presented some environmental costs, prompting the development of several alternative bioenergy feedstocks. These feedstocks, selected in part for traits associated with ecosystem services, may provide opportunities for environmental benefits beyond fossil fuel displacement. We hypothesized that these bioenergy ecosystems will provide direct climatic cooling through their influence on carbon and radiative energy fluxes (i.e., through albedo). To test this hypothesis, we investigated the potential cooling effect of five current or potential bioenergy feedstocks using multi-year records from eddy covariance towers. Perennial feedstocks were carbon sinks, with an annual mean net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of –2.7 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for miscanthus, –0.8 ± 1.1 Mg C ha –1 for switchgrass, and –1.4 ± 0.7 Mg C ha –1 for prairie. In contrast, annual rotations were generally carbon sources, with an annual mean NECB of 2.6 ± 2.4 Mg C ha –1 for maize-soy and 3.2 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for sorghum-soy. Using maize-soy as a baseline, conversion to alternative feedstocks increased albedo, inducing further cooling. This effect was strongest for miscanthus, with –3.5 ± 2.0 W m –2 of radiative forcing, and weakest for sorghum, with –1.4 ± 1.4 W m –2 . When feedstock effects on carbon and albedo were compared using carbon equivalents, carbon fluxes were the stronger ecosystem effect, underscoring the role of perennial species as effective carbon sinks. This work highlights the impact of feedstock choice on ecosystem processes as an element of bioenergy land conversion strategies.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Ultra High-Temperature Magnetic Bearing System for s-CO 2 Turbines/Expanders. Phase II Final Report
The goal of this project is to design and construct of a prototype of ultra-high temperature permanent magnet (UHT–PM), which provides the force to pull the spinning shaft towards the target position in the magnetic bearing (MB) clearance circle. This project will develop a PM biased MB system, that is actively cooled to the 550°C maximum operating temperature limit of PMs. The MB test environment will include 700°C, 40krpm and 4,000 psi requirements to advance the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) and other types of Brayton power cycle systems. The proposed novel MBs combine PMs for supplying the bias field and electromagnets for supplying the control field, both in UHT conditions. The choice of material is the UHT Sm-Co PMs (US patent 6,451,132) due to their significantly better thermal stability. The 6-pole homopolar design permits uninterrupted force delivery via a redundant control capability (US patent 7,429,811) even if 3 poles were to fail. The Phase I efforts was to focus on development and demonstration of component technologies and detailed design of full scale components and a demonstrator test rig for use in Phase II. UHT–PMs were produced and used in the MB actuator. The operating environment of the EEC-T550 Sm-Co magnet material could be extended by implementing active cooling. Electromagnetic coils imbedded in the MB provide forces to stabilize the shaft position at the target via sensing and control stages. Shaft position sensors enable to identify the present position of the spinning shaft relative to its desired target position in the MB clearance circle (air gap). Auxiliary bearings will be installed to provide a backup support system in the event that power to the MB fails or there is a fault in a device providing current to the MB coils. For control, reliability and safety reasons the sensors and auxiliary bearings are typically located as close as possible to the MBs, which exposes them to the same environmental conditions. Development of only the actuator for the UHT environment is an inadequate approach to complete integration of the MB system in the turbine/expander. Therefore the UHT sensor and auxiliary bearing were designed and developed along with the actively cooled, UHT-PM actuator development. Although shaft position sensors are commercially available (Kaman) they may cost up to $10k per channel, and a full 5 axis magnetic suspension is best implemented with up to 20 sensors. Once successfully completed, this project will significantly extend the operating environment capability for turbomachinery applications such as nuclear power, concentrated solar thermal, fossil fuel, geothermal, and shipboard propulsion. The further advancement of UHT-PM-MB will also strengthen the US position in PM technology, which is presently heavily dominated by China. The UHT Sm-Co magnet material that will be utilized in the proposed work has been developed exclusively by the project proposer. Many actuators, motors, generators and other MB applications will greatly benefit from the proposed work.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Harnessing stratospheric diffusion barriers for enhanced climate geoengineering
Stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering is a proposed method to temporarily intervene in the climate system to increase the reflectance of shortwave radiation and reduce mean global temperature. In previous climate modeling studies, choosing injection locations for geoengineering aerosols has, thus far, only utilized the average dynamics of stratospheric wind fields instead of accounting for the essential role of time-varying material transport barriers in turbulent atmospheric flows. Here we conduct the first analysis of sulfate aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere, comparing what is now a standard fixed-injection scheme with time-varying injection locations that harness short-term stratospheric diffusion barriers. We show how diffusive transport barriers can quickly be identified, and we provide an automated injection location selection algorithm using short forecast and reanalysis data. Within the first 7 d days of transport, the dynamics-based approach is able to produce particle distributions with greater global coverage than fixed-site methods with fewer injections. Additionally, this enhanced dispersion slows aerosol microphysical growth and can reduce the effective radii of aerosols up to 200–300 d after injection. While the long-term dynamics of aerosol dispersion are accurately predicted with transport barriers calculated from short forecasts, the long-term influence on radiative forcing is more difficult to predict and warrants deeper investigation. Statistically significant changes in radiative forcing at timescales beyond the forecasting window showed mixed results, potentially increasing or decreasing forcing after 1 year when compared to fixed injections. We conclude that future feasibility studies of geoengineering should consider the cooling benefits possible by strategically injecting sulfate aerosols at optimized time-varying locations. Our method of utilizing time-varying attracting and repelling structures shows great promise for identifying optimal dispersion locations, and radiative forcing impacts can be improved by considering additional meteorological variables.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Above-cloud concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei help to sustain some Arctic low-level clouds
Abstract. Previous studies have found that low-level Arctic clouds often persist for long periods even in the face of very low surface cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. Here, we investigate whether these conditions could occur due to continuous entrainment of aerosol particles from the free troposphere (FT). We use an idealized large eddy simulation (LES) modeling framework, where aerosol concentrations are low in the boundary layer (BL) but increased up to 50× in the free troposphere. We find that the tests with higher tropospheric aerosol concentrations simulated clouds, which persisted for longer and maintained higher liquid water paths (LWPs). This is due to direct entrainment of the tropospheric aerosol into the cloud layer, which results in a precipitation suppression from the increase in cloud droplet number and in stronger cloud-top radiative cooling, which causes stronger circulations maintaining the cloud in the absence of surface forcing. Together, these two responses result in a more well-mixed boundary layer with a top that remains in contact with the tropospheric aerosol reservoir and can maintain entrainment of those aerosol particles. The surface aerosol concentrations, however, remained low in all simulations. The free-tropospheric aerosol concentration necessary to maintain the clouds is consistent with concentrations that are frequently seen in observations.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention
A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Subsurface Cooling and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Formation Over the Equatorial Pacific
Abstract The equatorial cold tongue region has not warmed up in response to historical radiative forcing in the real world, contrary to the strong warming often simulated by climate models. Here we demonstrate that climate models fail to represent one or both of the key processes driving observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern formation: a realistic surface wind stress pattern shaping subsurface cooling through wind‐driven circulation changes, and effective connectivity between subsurface and surface temperatures via upwelling and mixing. Consequently, none of the models approximate the observed lack of cold tongue SST warming and strengthening of zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, those that come closest achieve this due to interhemispheric warming differences rather than equatorial dynamics as observed. Addressing different origins of subsurface cooling in observations and simulations, and how they connect to SST, will lead to improved understanding of tropical Pacific SST changes to date and how they will evolve in the future.
Jiang, Feng [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Colu↗
The Strength of Coupling to the Southern Ocean Modulates Tropical Eastern Pacific Variability and Forced Response
Despite rising global-mean temperatures, large parts of the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled during the satellite era. These regions may be linked by teleconnections, with Southern Ocean cooling contributing to tropical eastern Pacific cooling. We demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the teleconnection is shown to be mediated by the magnitude of the positive cloud–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the strength of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. We link excessive precipitation in the tropical Pacific south of the equator to the strength of the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection. This model bias, known as the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is shown to be related to erroneous convection south of the equator, weakened cross-equatorial trade winds, and unfavorable meteorological conditions for marine boundary layer subtropical clouds. We postulate there is a two-way interaction, in which a double-ITCZ occurs with weaker cloud–SST and WES feedbacks, which in turn impact local SSTs and amplify the double-ITCZ. Models with a stronger Southern Ocean to tropical Pacific teleconnection tend to exhibit more multidecadal variability in the Walker circulation, ITCZ, and west–east equatorial SST gradient, as well as greater delayed warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean resulting from delayed Southern Ocean warming under greenhouse gas forcing. These results provide insight into why ESMs struggle to replicate observed tropical Pacific temperature trend patterns and point to ITCZ location as a key target for improvement in future model development.
Climate change↗
Aerosol-cloud-climate cooling overestimated by ship-track data
The effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the reflectivity of stratocumulus cloud decks through changes in cloud amount is a major uncertainty in climate projections. In frequently occurring nonprecipitating stratocumulus, cloud amount can decrease through aerosol-enhanced cloud-top mixing. The climatological relevance of this effect is debated because ship exhaust only marginally reduces stratocumulus amount. By comparing detailed numerical simulations with satellite analyses, we show that ship-track studies cannot be generalized to estimate the climatological forcing of anthropogenic aerosol. The ship track–derived sensitivity of the radiative effect of nonprecipitating stratocumulus to aerosol overestimates their cooling effect by up to 200%. Further, the offsetting warming effect of decreasing stratocumulus amount needs to be taken into account if we are to constrain the cloud-mediated radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Rain-Induced Stratification of the Equatorial Indian Ocean and Its Potential Feedback to the Atmosphere
Surface freshening through precipitation can act to stably stratify the upper ocean, forming a rain layer (RL). RLs inhibit subsurface vertical mixing, isolating deeper ocean layers from the atmosphere. This process has been studied using observations and idealized simulations. The present ocean modeling study builds upon this body of work by incorporating spatially resolved and realistic atmospheric forcing. Fine-scale observations of the upper ocean collected during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation field campaign are used to verify the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Spatiotemporal characteristics of equatorial Indian Ocean RLs are then investigated by forcing a 2D array of GOTM columns with realistic and well-resolved output from an existing regional atmospheric simulation. RL influence on the ocean-atmosphere system is evaluated through analysis of RL-induced modification to surface fluxes and sea surface temperature (SST). This analysis demonstrates that RLs cool the ocean surface on time scales longer than the associated precipitation event. A second simulation with identical atmospheric forcing to that in the first, but with rainfall set to zero, is performed to investigate the role of rain temperature and salinity stratification in maintaining cold SST anomalies within RLs. Approximately one third, or 0.1°C, of the SST reduction within RLs can be attributed to rain effects, while the remainder is attributed to changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity. The prolonged RL-induced SST anomalies enhance SST gradients that have been shown to favor the initiation of atmospheric convection. These findings encourage continued research of RL feedbacks to the atmosphere.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗