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At least 127 records · Page 7

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗

Advanced Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT)

ESA and NASA have both started programs to design and develop Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest, dynamic Forecasting models, and Impact Assessment capabilities. Earth System Digital Twins integrate diverse Earth and human activity models, continuous observations, and information system capabilities to provide unified, comprehensive representations and predictions that can be utilized for monitoring the health of the Planet, as well as for developing actionable information to support decision making. More generally, Digital Twins will help researchers better understand the fundamental Earth systems that impact everything from wildfires to climate change. This Townhall will first provide a short description of ESA’s, NASA’s and CNES’s current efforts in Digital Twins: • Destination Earth (DestinE) is the first initiative of the European Union to create a Digital Twin of the Earth, particularly focused on weather and climate, and as a coordinated effort between the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ESA and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). • Additionally, ESA is developing several Digital Twin Earth Precursor Activities to study some of the key scientific and technical challenges associated with building a “Digital Twin Earth”. These include forests, hydrology, Antarctica, food systems, oceans, and climate hot spots Digital Twin prototypes. • NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO)’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has started an initiative in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT), with 14 current projects in this area, developing various information systems technologies and prototypes that will help prepare the development of future NASA Digital Twins. • CNES is currently developing the concept of a Digital Twin Factory (DTF), which relies on a data lake, a high computing capability using clouds and/or HPC and has thematic algorithms and methodologies able to generate registered and coherent layers of information in order to enrich a datacube from which physical indicators can be computed spatially. NASA, ESA and CNES are also currently defining science use cases that will be presented during the townhall; those and a few short discussions of current projects will serve as a starting point to engage a dialogue about Digital Twins of the Earth with the IGARSS community.

earth science remote sensing; Information systems↗

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topoclimatological and snowhydrological survey of Switzerland

The author has identified the following significant results. Low temperature zones depend on the topography and the terrain coverage type (besides the meteorological situation). The usual pattern of cold zones at the bottom of the valleys, warmer belts along the valley slopes, and cold mountain tops is modified by the terrain coverage type. Rural and forested areas normally have different surface temperatures, but along a vertical profile the temperature decrease (or increase) is often of the same order of magnitude. Because there is also a close correlation between the topography and terrain coverage (high percentage of forested areas at the valley slopes up to the timber line, much less along the valley floors), the surface temperature of the warm slope zone is increased compared to a valley profile with uniform coverage.

Winiger, M.↗

Overview of the 2010 Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)

Substantial uncertainties still exist in the scientific understanding of the possible interactions between urban and natural (biogenic) emissions in the production and transformation of atmospheric aerosol and the resulting impact on climate change. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) carried out in June 2010 in Central Valley, California, was a comprehensive effort designed to improve this understanding. The primary objective of the field study was to investigate the evolution of secondary organic and black carbon aerosols and their climate-related properties in the Sacramento urban plume as it was routinely transported into the forested Sierra Nevada foothills area. Urban aerosols and trace gases experienced significant physical and chemical transformations as they mixed with the reactive biogenic hydrocarbons emitted from the forest. Two heavily-instrumented ground sites - one within the Sacramento urban area and another about 40 km to the northeast in the foothills area - were set up to characterize the evolution of meteorological variables, trace gases, aerosol precursors, aerosol size, composition, and climaterelated properties in freshly polluted and "aged" urban air. On selected days, the DOE G-1 aircraft was deployed to make similar measurements upwind and across the evolving Sacramento plume in the morning and again in the afternoon. The NASA B-200 aircraft, carrying remote sensing instruments, was also deployed to characterize the vertical and horizontal distribution of aerosols and aerosol optical properties within and around the plume. This overview provides: (a) the scientific background and motivation for the study, (b) the operational and logistical information pertinent to the execution of the study, (c) an overview of key observations and initial findings from the aircraft and ground-based sampling platforms, and (d) a roadmap of planned data analyses and focused modeling efforts that will facilitate the integration of new knowledge into improved representations of key aerosol processes and properties in climate models.

aerosols↗

Terrestrial laser scanning data (Levels 0 and 1) from Urban Biogeochemistry Pilot Project sites, Knoxville, Tennessee, Jul 2024 - Jul 2025

This data package contains data from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) at five urban park sites in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. All parks include open-grown and/or closed-canopy trees and mixed nearby land use. These study sites were established as part of the Urban Biogeochemistry Pilot Project, which has an overall goal of better understanding how hydrobiogeochemical cycling is altered within the human environment. These five sites represent a gradient of urbanization, and were instrumented to understand hydrological and biogeochemical cycling (e.g., soil moisture, soil physical properties and biogeochemistry, tree transpiration, species type). The TLS data archived here were collected to provide detailed, three-dimensional information about forest structure. Specifically, data were collected to allow tree- and stand-level characterization of woody structure and leaf area. TLS scans were placed to capture the area around trees with sap flow sensors, and as much of a 50 m radius area around the meteorological station as possible given site property limits. Derived products will allow upscaling of water content and transpiration data. This data package contains the following data: - High-level files document further details of the campaign and data package: 1_CampaignSummary.csv provides details about the campaign and study site, 2_ScanAreasDetail.csv provides details about each separate scan area (groups of scans post-processed into a single point cloud), 3_TerrestrialLidarSensor.csv provides further technical details about the Riegl VZ-400i TLS sensor, TLS_CSV_dd.csv is a CSV Data Dictionary providing information about the fields in CSV files following the ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting Format, TLS_flmd.csv is a File Level Metadata file providing information about each file in the data package following the ESS-DIVE File Level Metadata Reporting Format, and README.txt is a text file describing the overall project and file structure. - Level 0 data are the raw data (.PROJ folders) as recorded by the Riegl VZ-400i TLS instrument before scan co-registration and post-processing with the Riegl's proprietary RiSCAN PRO software, which requires a license. - Level 1 data contain post-processed, co-registered data from each scan area. The "PointClouds" folder for each scan area contains a .las file with 1 cm resolution point cloud data exported from RiSCAN PRO. These are the main files likely to be of interest to most users and can be further processed with any software capable of manipulating .las files (e.g. Python, R CloudCompare). The "Project Information" folder contains log files from post-processing in RiSCAN PRO that may be of interest to users who want to see detailed records of post-processing, including all PDF reports generated by RiSCAN PRO. The "ScanPositions" folder contains information about the final position of all TLS scans, after post-processing, in multiple formats. The file ScanPositions_*.csv provides final geo-referenced scan positions, and the file SOP_backup_*.csv can be used in RiSCAN PRO to restore the co-registered scan positions if users wish to re-process raw data (Level 0 .PROJ folders) with RiSCAN PRO software (e.g., subsample to a different resolution, exclude a certain scan position, or apply different filters on reflectance or deviation values) without redoing time-consuming co-registration steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In Situ Air Temperature and Humidity Measurements Over Diverse Land Covers in Greenbelt, Maryland, November 2013-November 2015

As our climate changes through time there is an ever-increasing need to quantify how and where it is changing so that mitigation strategies can be implemented. Urban areas have a disproportionate amount of warming due, in part, to the conductive properties of concrete and asphalt surfaces, surface albedo, heat capacity, lack of water, etc. that make up an urban environment. The NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigation working group at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD, conducted a study to collect temperature and humidity data at 15 min intervals from 12 sites at the center. These sites represent the major surface types at the center: asphalt, building roof, grass field, forest, and rain garden. The data show a strong distinction in the thermal properties of these surfaces at the center and the difference between the average values for the center compared to a local meteorological station. The data have been submitted to Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL-DAAC) for archival in comma separated value (csv) file format (Carroll et al.,2016) and can be found by following this link: http:daac.ornl.govcgi-bindsviewer.pl?ds_id1319.

Carroll, Mark L.↗

BOREAS HYD-2 Estimated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from Microwave Measurements

The surface meteorological data collected at the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) tower and ancillary sites are being used as inputs to an energy balance model to monitor the amount of snow storage in the boreal forest region. The BOREAS Hydrology (HYD)-2 team used Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) derived from an energy balance model and in situ observed SWE to compare the SWE inferred from airborne and spaceborne microwave data, and to assess the accuracy of microwave retrieval algorithms. The major external measurements that are needed are snowpack temperature profiles, in situ snow areal extent, and SWE data. The data in this data set were collected during February 1994 and cover portions of the Southern Study Area (SSA), Northern Study Area (NSA), and the transect areas. The data are available from BORIS as comma-delimited tabular ASCII files. The SWE data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Powell, Hugh↗

Tonlé Sap Food Security and Agriculture II: Evaluating Changes in Ecosystem Vitality and Freshwater Healthin the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

The Tonlé Sap Lake and river basin in central Cambodia provide critical ecosystem services to the region, including fisheries, agricultural irrigation, hydropower, and biodiverse habitats. Deforestation, increased pumping for farming, and effects of climate change such as droughts and forest fires threaten the health of the lake and food security in the region. This project built upon the previous term through a partnership with Conservation International (CI), the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, and the Tonlé Sap Authority to assess ecosystem vitality and implement CI’s Freshwater Health Index (FHI) tool, in an effort to prioritize resource expenditure and highlight areas of concern. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related travel restrictions, partners had not been able to readily collect in situ data for the past year, which make up the majority of FHI inputs. To help fill this data gap, we developed a methodology for using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to calculate groundwater storage depletion, and a Python Application Programming Interface for processing and formatting remotely-sensed data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We then used SWAT to model nutrient flows and of phosphorous, nitrogen and suspended sediments amounts in the basin from October 2000 to December 2020. These outputs served as inputs for the FHI and provided policy makers with robust monitoring information to aid decision-making in the area and safeguard the lake’s vital fisheries and biodiversity.

Justine Spore↗

Lightning Detection Efficiency Analysis Process: Modeling Based on Empirical Data

A ground based lightning detection system employs a grid of sensors, which record and evaluate the electromagnetic signal produced by a lightning strike. Several detectors gather information on that signal s strength, time of arrival, and behavior over time. By coordinating the information from several detectors, an event solution can be generated. That solution includes the signal s point of origin, strength and polarity. Determination of the location of the lightning strike uses algorithms based on long used techniques of triangulation. Determination of the event s original signal strength relies on the behavior of the generated magnetic field over distance and time. In general the signal from the event undergoes geometric dispersion and environmental attenuation as it progresses. Our knowledge of that radial behavior together with the strength of the signal received by detecting sites permits an extrapolation and evaluation of the original strength of the lightning strike. It also limits the detection efficiency (DE) of the network. For expansive grids and with a sparse density of detectors, the DE varies widely over the area served. This limits the utility of the network in gathering information on regional lightning strike density and applying it to meteorological studies. A network of this type is a grid of four detectors in the Rondonian region of Brazil. The service area extends over a million square kilometers. Much of that area is covered by rain forests. Thus knowledge of lightning strike characteristics over the expanse is of particular value. I have been developing a process that determines the DE over the region [3]. In turn, this provides a way to produce lightning strike density maps, corrected for DE, over the entire region of interest. This report offers a survey of that development to date and a record of present activity.

Rompala, John T.↗

Assimilation of MODIS Snow Cover Through the Data Assimilation Research Testbed and the Community Land Model Version 4

To improve snowpack estimates in Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover fraction (SCF) was assimilated into the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) via the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The interface between CLM4 and DART is a flexible, extensible approach to land surface data assimilation. This data assimilation system has a large ensemble (80-member) atmospheric forcing that facilitates ensemble-based land data assimilation. We use 40 randomly chosen forcing members to drive 40 CLM members as a compromise between computational cost and the data assimilation performance. The localization distance, a parameter in DART, was tuned to optimize the data assimilation performance at the global scale. Snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth are adjusted via the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, particularly in regions with large SCF variability. The root-mean-square error of the forecast SCF against MODIS SCF is largely reduced. In DJF (December-January-February), the discrepancy between MODIS and CLM4 is broadly ameliorated in the lower-middle latitudes (2345N). Only minimal modifications are made in the higher-middle (4566N) and high latitudes, part of which is due to the agreement between model and observation when snow cover is nearly 100. In some regions it also reveals that CLM4-modeled snow cover lacks heterogeneous features compared to MODIS. In MAM (March-April-May), adjustments to snowmove poleward mainly due to the northward movement of the snowline (i.e., where largest SCF uncertainty is and SCF assimilation has the greatest impact). The effectiveness of data assimilation also varies with vegetation types, with mixed performance over forest regions and consistently good performance over grass, which can partly be explained by the linearity of the relationship between SCF and SWE in the model ensembles. The updated snow depth was compared to the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) data. Differences between CMC and CLM4 are generally reduced in densely monitored regions.

data assimilation↗

Simulating environmentally-sensitive tree recruitment in vegetation demographic models

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional-type-specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees. We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations. We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes. Furthermore, our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional-type-specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Contributions of vegetation heterogeneity within tower footprint to CO 2 flux estimations through graph neural network modeling

Net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (Fc) measured directly by eddy covariance towers is based on various assumptions, including large, flat and homogenous land cover type. In reality, often a tower site is not large enough for flux measurements, and landscapes consist of patches of different land cover types within the flux footprint. In addition, some portions of fluxes are contributed by different cover types when a footprint exceeds the size of the target ecosystem. The contributions of non-dominant patches to Fc are often ignored. Here, in this study, we propose a novel integrated modeling framework that combines random forest (RF) and XGBoost with a residual correction module based on a deep graph convolutional network (DeeperGCN) to simulate Fc for seven flux measurement sites in southwest Michigan. High-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices, soil properties, meteorological variables, and footprint-weighted spatial features were used as model inputs at three spatial resolutions (10 m, 20 m, 30 m), and their importance in predicting Fc with DeeperGCN was assessed. We found that residual correction using DeeperGCN significantly improved prediction accuracy, with the R 2 increasing from 0.9098 to 0.9479 for RF and from 0.9235 to 0.9433 for XGBoost. At site level, the maximum improvement in R 2 reached 0.1617. Paired t-tests confirmed that these improvements were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Among all predictors, leaf area index and incoming shortwave radiation emerged as the dominant drivers of spatial residual variation, followed by precipitation, relative humidity, and selected vegetation indices. The 20 m resolution yielded the best balance between model performance and computational efficiency. In conclusion, our modeling framework effectively captures both spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions, offering a robust solution for spatially explicit flux modeling in structurally diverse ecosystems beyond the study sites.

footprint model↗

The Influence of Shallow Cloud Populations on Transitions to Deep Convection in the Amazon

Abstract In this study, a pair of convection-permitting (2-km grid spacing), month-long, wet-season Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations with and without the eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme are performed for a portion of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) 2014/15 field campaign period. EDMF produces an ensemble of subgrid-scale convective plumes that evolve in response to the boundary layer meteorological conditions and can develop into shallow clouds. The objective of this study is to determine how different treatments of shallow cumulus clouds (i.e., with and without EDMF) impact the total cloud population and precipitation across the Amazonian rain forest, with emphasis on impacts on the likelihood of shallow-to-deep convection transitions. Results indicate that the large-scale synoptic conditions in the EDMF and control simulations are nearly identical; however, on the local scale their rainfall patterns diverge drastically and the biases decrease in EDMF. The EDMF scheme significantly increases the frequency of shallow clouds, but the frequencies of deep clouds are similar between the simulations. Deep convective clouds are tracked using a cloud-tracking algorithm to examine the impact of shallow cumulus on the surrounding ambient environment where deep convective clouds initiate. Results suggest that a rapid increase of low-level cloudiness acts to cool and moisten the low to midtroposphere during the day, favoring the transition to deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced monitoring of soil-vegetation co-dynamics reveals the successive controls of snowmelt on soil moisture and on plant seasonal dynamics in a mountainous watershed

Evaluating the interactions between above- and below-ground processes is important to understand and quantify how ecosystems respond differently to atmospheric forcings and/or perturbations and how this depends on their intrinsic characteristics and heterogeneity. Improving such understanding is particularly needed in snow-impacted mountainous systems where the complexity in water and carbon storage and release arises from strong heterogeneity in meteorological forcing and terrain, vegetation and soil characteristics. This study investigates spatial and temporal interactions between terrain, soil moisture, and plant seasonal dynamics at the intra- and inter-annual scale along a 160 m long mountainous, non-forested hillslope-to-floodplain system in the upper East River Watershed in the upper Colorado River Basin. To this end, repeated UAV-based multi-spectral aerial imaging, ground-based soil electrical resistivity imaging, and soil moisture sensors were used to quantify the interactions between above and below-ground compartments. Results reveal significant soil-plant co-dynamics. The spatial variation and dynamics of soil water content and electrical conductivity, driven by topographic and soil intrinsic characteristics, correspond to distinct plant types, with highest plant productivity in convergent areas. Plant productivity in heavy snow years benefited from more water infiltration as well as a shallow groundwater table depth. In comparison, low snowpack years with an early first bare-ground date, which are linked to an early increase in plant greenness, imply a short period of saturated conditions that leads to lower average and maximum greenness values during the growing season. Overall, these results emphasize the strong impact of snowpack dynamics, and terrain and subsurface characteristics on the heterogeneity in plant type and seasonal dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FIFE data analysis: Testing BIOME-BGC predictions for grasslands

The First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) was conducted in a 15 km by 15 km research area located 8 km south of Manhattan, Kansas. The site consists primarily of native tallgrass prairie mixed with gallery oak forests and croplands. The objectives of FIFE are to better understand the role of biology in controlling the interactions between the land and the atmosphere, and to determine the value of remotely sensed data for estimating climatological parameters. The goals of FIFE are twofold: the upscale integration of models, and algorithm development for satellite remote sensing. The specific objectives of the field campaigns carried out in 1987 and 1989 were the simultaneous acquisition of satellite, atmospheric, and surface data; and the understanding of the processes controlling surface energy and mass exchange. Collected data were used to study the dynamics of various ecosystem processes (photosynthesis, evaporation and transpiration, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, etc.). Modelling terrestrial ecosystems at scales larger than that of a homogeneous plot led to the development of simple, generalized models of biogeochemical cycles that can be accurately applied to different biomes through the use of remotely sensed data. A model was developed called BIOME-BGC (for BioGeochemical Cycles) from a coniferous forest ecosystem model, FOREST-BGC, where a biome is considered a combination of a life forms in a specified climate. A predominately C4-photosynthetic grassland is probably the most different from a coniferous forest possible, hence the FIFE site was an excellent study area for testing BIOME-BGC. The transition from an essentially one-dimensional calculation to three-dimensional, landscape scale simulations requires the introduction of such factors as meteorology, climatology, and geomorphology. By using remotely sensed geographic information data for important model inputs, process-based ecosystem simulations at a variety of scales are possible. The second objective of this study is concerned with determining the accuracy of the estimated fluxes from BIOME-BGC, when extrapolated spatially over the entire 15-km by 15-km FIFE site. To accomplish this objective, a topographically distributed map of soil depth at the FIFE site was developed. These spatially-distributed fluxes were then tested with data from aircraft by eddy-flux correlation obtained during the FIFE experiment.

Hunt, E. Raymond, Jr.↗

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps

Abstract An accurate characterization of the water content of snowpack, or snow water equivalent (SWE), is necessary to quantify water availability and constrain hydrologic and land surface models. Recently, airborne observations (e.g., lidar) have emerged as a promising method to accurately quantify SWE at high resolutions (scales of ∼100 m and finer). However, the frequency of these observations is very low, typically once or twice per season in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Here, we present a machine learning framework that is based on random forests to model temporally sparse lidar-derived SWE, enabling estimation of SWE at unmapped time points. We approximated the physical processes governing snow accumulation and melt as well as snow characteristics by obtaining 15 different variables from gridded estimates of precipitation, temperature, surface reflectance, elevation, and canopy. Results showed that, in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, our framework is capable of modeling SWE with a higher accuracy when compared with estimates generated by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). The mean value of the coefficient of determination R 2 using our approach was 0.57, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 13 cm, which was a significant improvement over SNODAS (mean R 2 = 0.13; RMSE = 20 cm). We explored the relative importance of the input variables and observed that, at the spatial resolution of 800 m, meteorological variables are more important drivers of predictive accuracy than surface variables that characterize the properties of snow on the ground. This research provides a framework to expand the applicability of lidar-derived SWE to unmapped time points. Significance Statement Snowpack is the main source of freshwater for close to 2 billion people globally and needs to be estimated accurately. Mountainous snowpack is highly variable and is challenging to quantify. Recently, lidar technology has been employed to observe snow in great detail, but it is costly and can only be used sparingly. To counter that, we use machine learning to estimate snowpack when lidar data are not available. We approximate the processes that govern snowpack by incorporating meteorological and satellite data. We found that variables associated with precipitation and temperature have more predictive power than variables that characterize snowpack properties. Our work helps to improve snowpack estimation, which is critical for sustainable management of water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗