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DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Peak radial growth of diffuse-porous species occurs during periods of lower water availability than for ring-porous and coniferous trees

Climate models project warmer summer temperatures will increase the frequency and heat severity of droughts in temperate forests of Eastern North America. Hotter droughts are increasingly documented to affect tree growth and forest dynamics, with critical impacts on tree mortality, carbon sequestration and timber provision. The growing acknowledgement of the dominant role of drought timing on tree vulnerability to water deficit raises the issue of our limited understanding of radial growth phenology for most temperate tree species. Here, we use well-replicated dendrometer band data sampled frequently during the growing season to assess the growth phenology of 610 trees from 15 temperate species over 6 years. Patterns of diameter growth follow a typical logistic shape, with growth rates reaching a maximum in June, and then decreasing until process termination. On average, we find that diffuse-porous species take 16–18 days less than other wood-structure types to put on 50% of their annual diameter growth. However, their peak growth rate occurs almost a full month later than ring-porous and conifer species (ca. 24 ± 4 days; mean ± 95% credible interval). Unlike other species, the growth phenology of diffuse-porous species in our dataset is highly correlated with their spring foliar phenology. We also find that the later window of growth in diffuse-porous species, coinciding with peak evapotranspiration and lower water availability, exposes them to a higher water deficit of 88 ± 19 mm (mean ± SE) during their peak growth than ring-porous and coniferous species (15 ± 35 mm and 30 ± 30 mm, respectively). Given the high climatic sensitivity of wood formation, our findings highlight the importance of wood porosity as one predictor of species climatic sensitivity to the projected intensification of the drought regime in the coming decades.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xSP NEON Soaproot Saddle (SOAP)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xSP NEON Soaproot Saddle (SOAP). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xSP NEON Soaproot Saddle (SOAP) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Soaproot Saddle is a complex terrain of coarse hills, steep slopes and narrow drainages. With an elevation of 3274 - 4537’ this site encompasses 1438 acres of mixed conifer forests that are experiencing high levels of mortality due to native Pine beetles. At the core of this site stands a 171’ tall flux tower that collects physical and chemical properties of atmosphere and related process. Soaproot Saddle also hosts an array of sensor measurements along with field observations collected by highly trained NEON staff. The automated instrument measurements and some of the terrestrial observational safor this field site are colocted with NEON's aquatic site, Upper Big Creek, which is located just north of Soaproot Saddle's site boundaries.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory [N↗

DOE OSTI2022

Leveraging Machine Learning and Geo-Tagged Citizen Science Data to Disentangle the Factors of Avian Mortality Events at the Species Level

Abrupt environmental changes can affect the population structures of living species and cause habitat loss and fragmentations in the ecosystem. During August–October 2020, remarkably high mortality events of avian species were reported across the western and central United States, likely resulting from winter storms and wildfires. However, the differences of mortality events among various species responding to the abrupt environmental changes remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on three species, Wilson’s Warbler, Barn Owl, and Common Murre, with the highest mortality events that had been recorded by citizen scientists. We leveraged the citizen science data and multiple remotely sensed earth observations and employed the ensemble random forest models to disentangle the species responses to winter storm and wildfire. We found that the mortality events of Wilson’s Warbler were primarily impacted by early winter storms, with more deaths identified in areas with a higher average daily snow cover. The Barn Owl’s mortalities were more identified in places with severe wildfire-induced air pollution. Both winter storms and wildfire had relatively mild effects on the mortality of Common Murre, which might be more related to anomalously warm water. Our findings highlight the species-specific responses to environmental changes, which can provide significant insights into the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change and avian conservations. Additionally, the study emphasized the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring large-scale abrupt environmental changes and conservation using remotely sensed and citizen science data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Turbulence regimes in the nocturnal roughness sublayer: Interaction with deep convection and tree mortality in the Amazon

We investigated the influence of seasonality and proximity to the forest canopy on nocturnal turbulence regimes in the roughness sublayer of a Central Amazon forest. Since convective systems of different scales are common in this region, we also analyzed the effect of extreme wind gusts (propagated from convective downdrafts) on the organization of the turbulence regimes, and their potential to cause the mortality of canopy trees. Our data include high-frequency winds, temperature and ozone concentration at different heights during the dry and wet seasons of 2014. In addition, we used critical wind-speed data derived from a tree-winching experiment and a modeling study conducted in the same study site. Two different turbulence regimes were identified at three heights above the canopy: a weakly stable (WS) and a very stable regime (VS). The threshold wind speeds that mark the transition between turbulence regimes were larger during the dry season and increased as a function of the height above the canopy. The turbulent fluxes of sensible heat and momentum during the WS accounted for 88% of the entire nighttime flux. Downdrafts occurred only in the WS and favored a fully coupled state of wind flow along the canopy profile. The destructive potential of winds was four times higher than on nights without downdrafts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California

Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%–30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%–40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%–20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Delayed fire mortality has long‐term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape

Abstract Fire is a critical ecological process to the forests of the Southern Appalachians. Where fire was excluded from forest types that historically burned frequently, unanticipated changes can occur when fire is reintroduced. For example, the development of new fuel characteristics can change the patterns of fire mortality and associated ecological responses. To test the fire effects of delayed fire mortality (mortality initiated by fire that occurs subsequent to the fire year) in the Southern Appalachians, USA, we developed a fire‐effects model using both field studies and remote sensing. We then simulated these effects at a landscape scale to estimate broader ecological effects. Fire‐effects models that accounted for delayed mortality increased landscape biomass removed annually (~23%) and increased the number of sites with high light conditions (leaf area index < 4) when compared to simulations that only account for immediate mortality. While delayed mortality occurred across species and age classes, it was especially prevalent among older trees (>100 years old) and fire‐resistant species ( Quercus spp.). Overall, regeneration (trees <20 years old) changed very little, even with the inclusion of delayed mortality. This evidence suggests that, even when accounting for delayed mortality, individual fires are unlikely to shift the landscape composition toward the conditions of forests prior to fire exclusion and may even increase mesophication long term due to the loss of overstory dominant xeric trees.

Robbins, Zachary J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aridity and forest age mediate landscape scale patterns of tropical forest resistance to cyclonic storms

Abstract Cyclonic storms, or hurricanes, are expected to intensify as ocean heat energy rises due to climate change. Ecological theory suggests that tropical forest resistance to hurricanes should increase with forest age and wood density. However, most data on hurricane effects on tropical forests come from a limited number of well‐studied long‐term monitoring sites, restricting our capacity to evaluate the resistance of tropical forests to hurricanes across broad environmental gradients. In this study, we assessed whether forest age and aridity mediate the effects of hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra islands. We leveraged functional trait data for 410 tree species, remotely sensed measurements of canopy height and cover, along with data on forest stand characteristics of 180 of 338 forest monitoring plots, each covering an area of 0.067 ha. The plots represent a broad mean annual precipitation (MAP) gradient from 701 to 4598 mm and a complex mosaic of forest age from 5 to around 85 years since deforestation. Hurricanes resulted in a 25% increase in basal area mortality rates, a 45% decrease in canopy height and a 21% reduction in canopy cover. These effects intensified with forest age, even after considering proximity to the hurricane path. The links between forest age and hurricane disturbances were likely due the prevalence of tall canopies. Tall forest canopies were strongly linked with low community‐weighted wood density (WD). These characteristics were on average more common in moist and wet forests (MAP >1250 mm). Conversely, dry forests were dominated by short species with high wood density (WD > 0.6 g cm −3 ) and did not show significant increases in basal area mortality rates after the hurricanes. Synthesis . Our findings show that selection towards drought‐tolerant traits across aridity gradients, such as short stature and dense wood, enhances resistance to hurricanes. However, forest age modulated responses to hurricanes, with older forests being less resistant across the islands. This evidence highlights the importance of considering the intricate links between ecological succession and plant function when forecasting tropical forests’ responses to increasingly strong hurricanes.

Vargas G., German↗

NASA NTRS2013

Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains

The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica.

tree die-off↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Data Products for National Drought Monitor Decision Support

Drought effects are either direct or indirect depending on location, population, and regional economic vitality. Common direct effects of drought are reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Indirect impacts follow on the heels of direct impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. In the United States alone, drought is estimated to result in annual losses of between $6 - 8 billion. Recent sustained drought in the United States has made decision-makers aware of the impacts of climate change on society and environment. The eight major droughts that occurred in the United States between 1980 and 1999 accounted for the largest percentage of weather-related monetary losses. Monitoring drought and its impact that occurs at a variety of scales is an important government activity -- not only nationally but internationally as well. The NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) RMA (Risk Management Agency) have partnered together to develop a DM-DSS (Drought Monitoring Decision Support System). This monitoring system will be an interactive portal that will provide users the ability to visualize and assess drought at all levels. This candidate solution incorporates atmospherically corrected VIIRS data products, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and Ocean SST (sea surface temperature), and AMSR-E soil moisture data products into two NDMC vegetation indices -- VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) and VegOUT (Vegetation Outlook) -- which are then input into the DM-DSS.

Estep, Leland↗

DOE OSTI2022

Context matters: Natural tree mortality can lead to neighbor growth release or suppression

Where competition suppresses tree growth, mortality of adjacent trees can release the surviving individuals, leading to a growth increase. However, primary forests are complicated systems, where trees interact in both competitive and facilitative ways mediated by their size, species, and the broad ecological context in which they grow. Thus, the magnitude and even direction of growth responses to the mortality of nearby trees may vary, which has implications for our understanding of community- and ecosystem-level dynamics following mortality events. Unfortunately, although many studies focus on the impacts of light availability and general crowding on tree growth, we know relatively little about the effects of naturally occurring mortality events on the growth of neighboring trees. To address this issue, we used 40 years of data from 15 permanent forest-monitoring plots in Mt Rainier old-growth forests, comparing observed to expected radial growth of individual trees following the death of their nearest neighbor. Although we found evidence of a general growth-release response, this was not universal among all trees, with small trees in particular exhibiting growth suppression (rather than release) following neighboring tree mortality. In addition to small size, growth-suppression was more likely if the dead neighbor was the same species, consistent with facilitative effects as mediated through belowground networks. At the stand level, the average growth release after nearest neighbor mortality was greatest in low-density stands with large trees, with elevation and community composition also playing a role. Decades more monitoring could reveal how long growth release (or suppression) is sustained by individual trees following neighboring mortality events, as well as potential response lags and the role of species identity in determining whether interactions with neighbors are competitive or facilitative. Nonetheless, our results suggest that although mature trees have competitive effects on their larger neighbors, they also have an important role in supporting the ingrowth of small trees. More broadly, we demonstrate that the nature of interactions between individual neighboring trees is highly context dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reviving the carbon sink: The influence of moderate wind disturbance in a secondary temperate mixed forest

Global forests are increasingly exposed to climate-driven perturbations, which may in turn alter their climate mitigation potential. As tropical cyclones expand poleward due to climate warming, wind disturbances in temperate forests have become increasingly frequent. The consequences of moderate wind disturbances remain poorly understood, hindering efforts to quantify their role in the global carbon cycle. Here, we used 16 years of continuous eddy covariance and biometric measurements to investigate the impacts of moderate wind disturbances on the structure and carbon sink dynamics of a temperate forest in Northeast China. Following Typhoon Maysak in 2020, the mortality of large trees (particularly the aging pioneer species) increased ninefold, whereas that of small trees decreased by nearly half. Both stand basal area and leaf area index were reduced between 2019 and 2023, with aging pioneer tree species being more vulnerable than mid-to-late species to wind disturbances. Shifts in species composition altered the environmental sensitivity of forest carbon sink function. Unexpectedly, wind disturbances reversed the declining trends in net ecosystem production and ecosystem carbon use efficiency of this secondary forest. A novel composite structural indicator—the standardized leaf area index (the maximum leaf area supported by per basal area of the stand)—provided robust predictions (R 2 > 0.4) of carbon sink dynamics throughout the study period. The selective removal of less efficient pioneer trees accelerated succession and reversed the aging-related decline in forest carbon sink strength and carbon use efficiency. In conclusion, these findings highlight the potential role of moderate wind disturbances in enhancing forest carbon sink function and offer a framework for understanding, assessing, and predicting forest carbon dynamics under increasing disturbance frequencies driven by climate change.

Carbon sink↗

DOE OSTI2021

Living on the edge: A continental-scale assessment of forest vulnerability to drought

Globally, forests are facing an increasing risk of mass tree mortality events associated with extreme droughts and higher temperatures. Hydraulic dysfunction is considered a key mechanism of drought-triggered dieback. By leveraging the climate breadth of the Australian landscape and a national network of research sites (Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network), we conducted a continental-scale study of physiological and hydraulic traits of 33 native tree species from contrasting environments to disentangle the complexities of plant response to drought across communities. Here, we found strong relationships between key plant hydraulic traits and site aridity. Leaf turgor loss point and xylem embolism resistance were correlated with minimum water potential experienced by each species. Across the data set, there was a strong coordination between hydraulic traits, including those linked to hydraulic safety, stomatal regulation and the cost of carbon investment into woody tissue. These results illustrate that aridity has acted as a strong selective pressure, shaping hydraulic traits of tree species across the Australian landscape. Hydraulic safety margins were constrained across sites, with species from wetter sites tending to have smaller safety margin compared with species at drier sites, suggesting trees are operating close to their hydraulic thresholds and forest biomes across the spectrum may be susceptible to shifts in climate that result in the intensification of drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics

Abstract. Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Fire-induced Carbon Emissions and Regrowth Uptake in Western U.S. Forests: Documenting Variation Across Forest Types, Fire Severity, and Climate Regions

The forest area in the western United States that burns annually is increasing with warmer temperatures, more frequent droughts, and higher fuel densities. Studies that examine fire effects for regional carbon balances have tended to either focus on individual fires as examples or adopt generalizations without considering how forest type, fire severity, and regional climate influence carbon legacies. This study provides a more detailed characterization of fire effects and quantifies the full carbon impacts in relation to direct emissions, slow release of fire-killed biomass, and net carbon uptake from forest regrowth. We find important variations in fire-induced mortality and combustion across carbon pools (leaf, live wood, dead wood, litter, and duff) and across low- to high-severity classes. This corresponds to fire-induced direct emissions from 1984 to 2008 averaging 4 TgC/yr and biomass killed averaging 10.5 TgC/yr, with average burn area of 2723 sq km/yr across the western United States. These direct emission and biomass killed rates were 1.4 and 3.7 times higher, respectively, for high-severity fires than those for low-severity fires. The results show that forest regrowth varies greatly by forest type and with severity and that these factors impose a sustained carbon uptake legacy. The western U.S. fires between 1984 and 2008 imposed a net source of 12.3 TgC/yr in 2008, accounting for both direct fire emissions (9.5 TgC/yr) and heterotrophic decomposition of fire-killed biomass (6.1 TgC yr1) as well as contemporary regrowth sinks (3.3 TgC/yr). A sizeable trend exists toward increasing emissions as a larger area burns annually.

Forest↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Summary Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-CPk Chimney Park

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-CPk Chimney Park. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-CPk Chimney Park produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - High elevation, primarily lodge-pole pine forest with high amounts of Mountain Pine Bark Beetle mortality. Site burned in June/July 2018, characterized by a highly heterogeneous fire behavior that resulted in unburned, understory-only, as well as severely-burned patches within the tower footprint.

Ewers, Brent↗