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Severe declines in hydraulic capacity and associated carbon starvation drive mortality in seawater exposed Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees
Abstract Sea-level rise is causing widespread tree mortality of coastal forests, with large consequences on the Earth system as a result of these forests’ importance in carbon and nutrient export. The mechanisms of mortality under these conditions are, however, poorly tested. We used wood anatomy traits, wood δ 13 C, and tree radial growth to retrospectively assess the physiological process of seawater effects on whole tree xylem hydraulic capacity, gas exchange, and radial growth. During the latter stages of mortality (2018–2019), we directly measured metrics of water use and carbon metabolism across trees having crowns ranging from fully foliated to completely defoliated to investigate mortality processes at the sub-annual scale. Upon seawater exposure, soil salinity increased and allocation to hydraulic function declined, resulting in a dramatic reduction in water supply to the crown, increased crown-level water stress, and subsequent crown foliage loss. Simultaneously, leaf-level photosynthetic capacity declined steeply with increasing salinity. The combined loss of crown foliage area and photosynthetic rates per unit leaf area promoted carbon starvation, while no evidence of hydraulic failure was observed. These results elucidate mechanisms of coastal forest death under seawater exposure, enabling more accurate modeling in the future.
Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide
Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. In this work, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.
High foliar K and P resorption efficiencies in old-growth tropical forests growing on nutrient-poor soils
Resorption is the active withdrawal of nutrients before leaf abscission. This mechanism represents an important strategy to maintain efficient nutrient cycling; however, resorption is poorly characterized in old-growth tropical forests growing in nutrientpoor soils. We investigated nutrient resorption from leaves in 39 tree species in two tropical forests on the Guiana Shield, French Guiana, to investigate whether resorption efficiencies varied with soil nutrient, seasonality, and species traits. The stocks of P in leaves, litter, and soil were low at both sites, indicating potential P limitation of the forests. Accordingly, mean resorption efficiencies were higher for P (35.9%) and potassium (K; 44.6%) than for nitrogen (N; 10.3%). K resorption was higher in the wet (70.2%) than in the dry (41.7%) season. P resorption increased slightly with decreasing total soil P; and N and P resorptions were positively related to their foliar concentrations. We conclude that nutrient resorption is a key plant nutrition strategy in these old-growth tropical forests, that trees with high foliar nutrient concentration reabsorb more nutrient, and that nutrients resorption in leaves, except P, are quite decoupled from nutrients in the soil. Seasonality and biochemical limitation played a role in the resorption of nutrients in leaves, but species-specific requirements obscured general tendencies at stand and ecosystem level.
Hydraulic architecture explains species moisture dependency but not mortality rates across a tropical rainfall gradient
Aim Intensified droughts are affecting tropical forests across the globe. However, the underlying mechanisms of tree drought response and mortality are poorly understood. Hydraulic traits and especially hydraulic safety margins (HSMs), i.e. the extent to which plants buffer themselves from thresholds of water stress, provide insights into species-specific drought vulnerability. Methods We investigated hydraulic traits during an intense drought triggered by the 2015-2016 El Niño on 27 canopy trees across three tropical forest sites with differing precipitation. We capitalized on the drought event as a time when plant water status might approach or exceed thresholds of water stress. We investigated the degree to which these traits varied across the rainfall gradient, as well as relationships amongst hydraulic traits and species-specific optimal moisture and mortality rates. Results There were no differences among sites for any measured trait. There was strong coordination among traits, with a network analysis revealing two major groups of coordinated traits. In one group there were water potentials, turgor loss point, sapwood capacitance and density, HSMs, and mortality rate. In the second group there was leaf mass per area, leaf dry matter content, hydraulic architecture (leaf area to sapwood area ratio), and species-specific optimal moisture. Conclusion These results demonstrated that while species with greater safety from turgor loss had lower mortality rates, hydraulic architecture was the only trait that explained species’ moisture dependency. Species with a greater leaf area to sapwood area ratio were associated with drier sites and reduced their transpirational demand during the dry season via deciduousness.
Tree mortality in a warming world: causes, patterns, and implications
This ERL focus collection has published 17 papers that have advanced our understanding of different dimensions of warming-induced tree mortality. Here we summarize these focus collection papers, organized by four topics related to tree mortality: pathogens, droughts/heat waves, fire/bark beetles, and teleconnections/air pollution. This focus collection illustrates a variety of methods in measuring and modeling tree-mortality, and adds significant new research findings into the scientific literature on tree mortality from hotter droughts. Some of these results also are useful for policymakers and forest managers in addressing amplified forest stress and tree mortality as a result of increasingly severe warming-induced climate and weather extremes.
Testing mechanisms of how mycorrhizal associations affect forest soil carbon and nitrogen cycling (Final Technical Report)
Trees are in a symbiotic partnership with mycorrhizal fungi in which they provide the fungi with carbon from photosynthesis and the fungi provide the trees with nutrients and water. In temperate forests, the vast majority of trees form symbioses with one of two types of mycorrhizal fungi—arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi or ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi. These fungi differ in their morphology, hyphal length, and nutrient acquisition strategies. Many studies have found systematic differences in soil organic matter and nitrogen availability between forest stands dominated by AM-associating trees versus EcM-associating trees. For instance, there is a larger proportion of organic matter that is mineral-associated, more available nitrogen, and lower soil carbon to nitrogen ratios in AM forest stands relative to EcM forests stands. However, the mechanisms driving these patterns are not known, which complicates our ability to model soil organic matter dynamics in forested ecosystems. The main objective of this research was to understand the degree to which the observed differences in soil C and N dynamics between AM and EcM dominated forests are driven by tree traits like litter decomposability and root exudation versus mycorrhizal fungal nutrient acquisition strategies. We investigated these mechanisms using observations and targeted experiments and incorporated this knowledge into a process-based soil organic matter model. The observational studies compared the importance of leaf litter decomposability versus fungal identity on soil organic matter processes. We found that often fungal identity and traits were more important drivers of soil organic matter patterns than leaf litter decomposability. We ran two novel experiments: 1) a growth chamber experiment across four EcM and four AM tree species using a 13 C-labeled atmosphere to trace seedling-derived C into hyphae, the rhizosphere, and soil; and 2) an in situ decomposition experiment of six different 13 C and 15 N labeled litters that ranged in decomposability incubated across a gradient of EcM dominance at three sites that capture important variation in climate, soils, and forest species composition. In the first experiment, we found no significant differences of seedling mycorrhizal association on soil carbon sequestration over a growing season, but we did find that mycorrhizal association affected rhizodeposition with EcM-associating seedlings depositing more carbon in response to increased nitrogen availability. The decomposition experiment is still ongoing, but thus far, we have found slower litter decomposition in only one of three EcM-dominated forests which suggests that differences between AM- and EcM-dominated forests depend on the environmental context and identity of the EcM fungi. Lastly, we explicitly incorporated mycorrhizal processes into the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model creating Myco-CORPSE. By including the different nutrient acquisition strategies of AM and EcM fungi, we explored the conditions under which EcM fungi can slow decomposition rates and lead to greater soil organic carbon accumulation compared to AM fungi. We found that the effect of EcM fungi was highly context dependent and that EcM fungi decreased decomposition in colder forests with recalcitrant litter inputs and when they produced oxidases and necromass-degrading enzymes. Our research highlights the importance of fungal nutrient acquisition in driving soil organic matter patterns and the need to move beyond the AM-EcM dichotomy to consider the identity and traits of the specific fungi participating in the symbiosis. Overall, this research has resulted in six, peer-reviewed published papers in journals such as Global Change Biology, Ecology (2), Soil Biology and Biochemistry, and Ecosystems (2). There are at least two more papers in progress on this research including one that was recently submitted to Global Change Biology.
Effects of nitrogen enrichment on tree carbon allocation: A global synthesis
Aim: Increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition may have profound effects on tree carbon allocation dynamics. However, a comprehensive understanding of how nitro-gen (N) enrichment influences carbon (C) allocation across plant functional processes and tree organs in individual trees remains elusive. Location: Global forest ecosystems. Time period: 1990–2018. Major taxa studied: Trees. Methods: We compiled data from 75 N addition experiments and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the responses of C source (photosynthesis), sinks (growth and respiration) and storage (non-structural carbohydrate concentrations) in different tree organs (foliage, above-ground wood and roots) to N enrichment. Results: N enrichment significantly enhanced C supply via photosynthesis (+39.6%, n = 128). C allocation to growth (biomass increment/production) significantly in-creased in foliage (+15.9%, n = 68) and above-ground wood (+31.8%, n = 64; bole, branch, stem and/or twig) with increasing N availability, but not in roots, whereas allocation increased in roots via increasing fine root turnover rate (+22.6%, n = 11). N fertilization significantly increased C allocation to respiration in above-ground wood (+46.6%, n = 12) and roots (+5.5%, n = 57), but not in foliage. N addition decreased non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations in foliage (-5.4%, n = 16) and roots (-5.0%, n = 21), but increased NSC in above-ground wood (+6.1%, n = 22). In addition, N enrichment effects were strongly affected by moderator variables. Main conclusions: Our results demonstrate that N addition increased C allocation to growth and respiration more strongly than C allocation to NSC storage, and increased C allocation to above-ground parts more strongly than to below-ground parts. Our results are useful for better understanding the response of tree functional processes at organ level to N enrichment. The existing data also reveal that more long-term ex-perimental studies on mature trees in tropical and boreal forests are urgently needed to provide a basis for forecasting tree responses to N enrichment at the global scale.
Data from: "Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest"
This data package contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Data were collected in field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), located on Niwot Ridge, on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Files containing geospatial data are also included, to provide additional locational context.There are four document formats associated with this archive: three comma-separated values (.csv) files, three Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf data user’s guide, four keyhole markup language (.kml) files, and a compressed folder containing seven ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, R, or Microsoft Excel. The .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .kml file can be opened by Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened with any GIS application compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS, and QGIS.We provide two versions of the seedling data file: “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20150522_20150525rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015) and “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20160408rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016). PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015 contains the data we used in the paper. PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016 contains an updated version of these data that includes sampling from later years. The main differences between the two files lie in the columns titled “k[YEAR],” which describe the number of seedlings that were killed in a particular year. In PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016, there also is an additional year of data for k2015, and k2014 also has additional data input for the 2014 cohort. Additionally, in years 2010-2014, there are minor differences in the number of seedlings killed -- in as few as 0 plots (in 2011) to as many as 5 plots (in 2014) -- due to errors in data input that were rectified in later years.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upslope range shifts by subalpine tree species are a widely anticipated effect of climate change. Climate niche models predict subalpine forests to expand upslope, given more suitable growing conditions for adult trees. However, these models do not take into account climates required for successful seedling recruitment and establishment, an essential element for expansion. Further, localized upper treeline populations are hypothesized to contain favorable traits for colonizing the alpine. To test these expectations and to expand our knowledge of seedling recruitment under climate change, we designed a common garden, climate-warming experiment spread across an elevation gradient at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We focus on two widespread Western North American species, Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis James), which occur at treeline. While the former is considered a late-seral species more tolerant of shade, limber pine is a shade-intolerant pioneer species able to establish on infertile sites.Every autumn, seeds of the two species were collected from high- (3370 m–3570 m) and low-provenance (2910–3240 m) sources close to the experimental sites and sown in our plots. A subset of plots were heated and another subset watered over the summer months to offset the effects of warming. Across five years, we found that seeds originating from low elevation recruited more strongly for both species, although this provenance difference diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. Despite the recruitment of low-provenance seed, warming treatments decreased recruitment at all elevations. Combining this with the likeliness and availability of lower-quality, high provenance seed moving upslope at the treeline, tree migration into the alpine may be slowed. Overall, our findings suggest that the hardier limber pine is likely to become a more significant species in subalpine forest communities in the future, while the more sensitive Engelmann spruce may experience range contraction.
Detecting anomalous packets in network transfers: investigations using PCA, autoencoder and isolation forest in TCP
Large-scale scientific workflows rely heavily on high-performance file transfers. These transfers require strict quality parameters such as guaranteed bandwidth, no packet loss or data duplication. To have successful file transfers, methods such as predetermined thresholds and statistical analysis need to be done to determine abnormal patterns. Network administrators routinely monitor and analyze network data for diagnosing and alleviating these, making decisions based on their experience. However, as networks grow and become complex, monitoring large data files and quickly processing them, makes it improbable to identify errors and rectify these. Abnormal file transfers have been classified by simply setting alert thresholds, via tools such as PerfSonar and TCP statistics (Tstat). This paper investigates the feasibility of unsupervised feature extraction methods for identifying network anomaly patterns with three unsupervised classification methods—principal component analysis, autoencoder and isolation forest. Here, we collect file transfer statistics from two experiment sets—synthetic iPerf generated traffic and 1000 Genome workflow runs, with synthetically introduced anomalies. Our results show that while PCA and a simple autoencoder finds it difficult to detect clusters, the tree-variant isolation forest is able to identify anomalous packets by breaking down TCP traces into tree classes early.
Soil properties explain tree growth and mortality, but not biomass, across phosphorus-depleted tropical forests
We observed strong positive relationships between soil properties and forest dynamics of growth and mortality across twelve primary lowland tropical forests in a phosphorus-poor region of the Guiana Shield. Average tree growth (diameter at breast height) increased from 0.81 to 2.1 mm yr -1 along a soil texture gradient from 0 to 67% clay, and increasing metal-oxide content. Soil organic carbon stocks in the top 30cm ranged from 30 to 118 tons C ha -1 , phosphorus content ranged from 7 to 600 mg kg -1 soil, and the relative abundance of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi ranged from 0 to 50%, all positively correlating with soil clay, and iron and aluminum oxide and hydroxide content. In contrast, already low extractable phosphorus (Bray P) content decreased from 4.4 to <0.0 mg kg -1 in soil with increasing clay content. A greater prevalence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in more clayey forests that had higher tree growth and mortality, but not biomass, indicates that despite the greater investment in nutrient uptake required, soils with higher clay content may actually serve to sustain high tree growth in tropical forests by avoiding phosphorus losses from the ecosystem. Our study demonstrates how variation in soil properties that retain carbon and nutrients can help to explain variation in tropical forest growth and mortality, but not biomass, by requiring niche specialization and contributing to biogeochemical diversification across this region.
An end-to-end deep learning solution for automated LiDAR tree detection in the urban environment
Cataloging and classifying trees in the urban environment is a crucial step in urban and environmental planning; however, manual collection and maintenance of this data is expensive and time-consuming. Although algorithmic approaches that rely on remote sensing data have been developed for tree detection in forests, they generally struggle in the more varied urban environment. This work proposes a novel end-to-end deep learning method for the detection of trees in the urban environment from remote sensing data. Specifically, we develop and train a novel PointNet-based neural network architecture to predict tree locations directly from LiDAR data augmented with multi-spectral imagery. We compare this model to a number of high-performing baselines on a large and varied dataset in the Southern California region, and find that our method outperforms all baselines in terms of tree detection ability (75.5% F-score) and positional accuracy (2.28 meter root mean squared error), while being highly efficient. We then analyze and compare the sources of errors, and how these reveal the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. Our results highlight the importance of fusing spectral and structural information for remote sensing tasks in complex urban environments.
The Plant a Trillion Trees Campaign to Reduce Global Warming – Fleshing Out the Concept
The campaign to plant a trillion trees provided an easily understood approach to reduce the threat of global warming. However, focusing on trees does not consider that a maturing forest releases carbon (C) from dying trees offsetting C intake from growth of other trees, and results in only a one-time carbon storage benefit. Under sustainable management that harvests before forest growth slows down, forest C is transferred to wood products that substitute for fossil fuel (FF)- intensive products, reducing the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions with every harvest. Sustainably managed forests maintain growth by replanting (or regenerating), sustaining the C stored in products, as well as avoiding FF-intensive product emissions with every harvest. This paper addresses the question: Could planting more trees significantly reduce atmospheric CO 2 ; and if so, how? Survey data from many wood-producing mills show life cycle inventory (LCI) data on C that has been tracked through every stage of processing for many different wood products specific to each United States (USA) supply region, as well as C displacement measurements when substituting wood for FFintensive products. Results show that more and better-managed forest lands and more efficient product uses provide significant opportunities to reduce CO 2 emissions, especially in highly productive forest regions.
Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation
Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.
GNSS-based Vegetation Optical Depth, Tree Sway, and Evapotranspiration data from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest (US-NR1) AmeriFlux site
This data package contains data and information about Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), tree sway motion, and eddy-covariance evapotranspiration (ET) data collected at the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux site (US-NR1). The raw GNSS data were collected between May 2022 and August 2023. Other processed datasets such as tree sway motion and ET data are also included. The goal was to study the water content within a subalpine forest and, more specifically, examine the canopy evaporation process. This data archive includes all data that were used within the following Biogeosciences discussion paper that further summarizes the research objectives and conclusions:Burns, S.P., V. Humphrey, E.D. Gutmann, M.S. Raleigh, D.R. Bowling, and P.D. Blanken, 2025: Using GNSS-based vegetation optical depth, tree sway motion, and eddy-covariance to examine evaporation of canopy-intercepted rainfall in a subalpine forest. EGUsphere [preprint],https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1755This data archive also supplements the 30-min Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) AmeriFlux dataset for US-NR1 (i.e., https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1246088) and updates what was in the 2020 ESS-DIVE US-NR1 archive (https://doi.org/10.15485/1671825) to include data from the years 2020-2025. More specifically, the following updates are provided: (i) five-minute statistics (means, variances, covariances) of all data measured by the US-NR1 data system between Sep 2020 and Jun 2025 in netCDF format, (ii) the electronic logbook of US-NR1 site visits, (iii) a web calendar (in HTML format) documenting activity at the site (a replica of https://urquell.colorado.edu/calendar/), (iv) photos taken at the site between years 2020 and present day (Aug 2025), and (v) several auxiliary datasets, primary related to trees near the site, soil properties, soil moisture and soil temperature, and subcanopy radiation data. The data package is setup so that the web calendar, photos, and electronic logbook can be easily accessed on a local computer using a web browser. The provided data files are in either BINEX or SBF format (for the raw GNSS data), netCDF, CSV, ASCII, or MATLAB format. To obtain a better understanding about the archive, please start by reading the following PDF which is included within the data archive:README_ESS_DIVE_USNR1_2025_readme_first.pdf.
Embolism resistance explains mortality and recovery of five subtropical evergreen broadleaf trees to persistent drought
Subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest (SEBF) is experiencing and expected to suffer more frequent and severe drought events. However, how the hydraulic traits directly link to the mortality and recovery of SEBF trees remains unclear. In this study, we conducted a drought-rewatering experiment on tree seedlings of five dominant species to investigate how the hydraulic traits were related to tree mortality and the resistance and recovery of photosynthesis (A) and transpiration (E) under different drought severities. Species with greater embolism resistance (P 50 ) survived longer than those with the weaker P 50 . However, there was no general hydraulic threshold associated with tree mortality, with the lethal hydraulic failure varying from 64% to 93% loss of conductance. Further, the photosynthesis and transpiration of tree species with greater P 50 were more resistant to and recovered faster from drought than those with lower P 50 . Other plant traits could not explain the interspecific variation in tree mortality and drought resistance and recovery. These results highlight the unique importance of embolism resistance in driving carbon and water process under persistent drought across different trees in SEBF. The absence of multiple efficient drought strategies in SEBF seedlings implies the difficulty of natural seedling regeneration under future droughts, which often occurs after destructive disturbances (e.g., extreme drought events and typhoon), suggesting that this biome may be highly vulnerable to co-occurring climate extremes.
Overlooked branch turnover creates a widespread bias in forest carbon accounting
Most measurements and models of forest carbon cycling neglect the carbon flux associated with the turnover of branch biomass, a physiological process quantified for other organs (fine roots, leaves, and stems). Synthesizing data from boreal, temperate, and tropical forests (184,815 trees), we found that including branch turnover increased empirical estimates of aboveground wood production by 16% (equivalent to 1.9 Pg Cy −1 globally), of similar magnitude to the observed global forest carbon sinks. In addition, reallocating carbon to branch turnover in model simulations reduced stem wood biomass, a long-lasting carbon storage, by 7 to 17%. This prevailing neglect of branch turnover suggests widespread biases in carbon flux estimates across global datasets and model simulations. Branch litterfall, sometimes used as a proxy for branch turnover, ignores carbon lost from attached dead branches, underestimating branch C turnover by 38% in a pine forest. Modifications to field measurement protocols and existing models are needed to allow a more realistic partitioning of wood production and forest carbon storage.
Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests
Abstract Tropical forests face increasing climate risk 1,2 , yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 ) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM 50 ) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk 3–5 , little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM 50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM 50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM 50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM 50 in the Amazon 6,7 , with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.