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DOE OSTI2025

Intersection of Hydrologic Change and Hydropower in the United States: Needs for Future Research and Practice

Hydropower is crucial for electric‐grid stability in the context of variable renewables but faces threats from changing hydrology. Here, we summarize the state of the science at the intersection of hydropower operations and planning, hydrologic science, and climate. We focus on the United States, outlining research, development, and training needs. Key knowledge gaps include the risk that intensification of compound extreme events poses to future generation, as well as uncertainties surrounding greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs with relevance to hydropower's role in energy decarbonization. Quantifying such impacts and reducing uncertainty are critical where possible, but remaining irreducible or deep uncertainty will require new approaches. Future monitoring and modeling methods must provide a better understanding of the complexity inherent in large watersheds that is critical to managing both hydropower and watersheds in the context of hydrologic change. Yet, research and development will have little impact if they do not inform practice. Standardization and consolidation of platforms are essential for data, modeling, and tool translation to local scales and small operators. An enhanced industry‐academia dialog is pivotal for fostering a robust pipeline of hydropower professionals. Collaboration among researchers, policymakers, authorities, and industry stakeholders emerges as a recurring theme, highlighting the imperative for collective efforts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data‐driven identification of environmental variables influencing phenotypic plasticity to facilitate breeding for future climates

Summary Phenotypic plasticity describes a genotype's ability to produce different phenotypes in response to different environments. Breeding crops that exhibit appropriate levels of plasticity for future climates will be crucial to meeting global demand, but knowledge of the critical environmental factors is limited to a handful of well‐studied major crops. Using 727 maize ( Zea mays L.) hybrids phenotyped for grain yield in 45 environments, we investigated the ability of a genetic algorithm and two other methods to identify environmental determinants of grain yield from a large set of candidate environmental variables constructed using minimal assumptions. The genetic algorithm identified pre‐ and postanthesis maximum temperature, mid‐season solar radiation, and whole season net evapotranspiration as the four most important variables from a candidate set of 9150. Importantly, these four variables are supported by previous literature. After calculating reaction norms for each environmental variable, candidate genes were identified and gene annotations investigated to demonstrate how this method can generate insights into phenotypic plasticity. The genetic algorithm successfully identified known environmental determinants of hybrid maize grain yield. This demonstrates that the methodology could be applied to other less well‐studied phenotypes and crops to improve understanding of phenotypic plasticity and facilitate breeding crops for future climates.

Kusmec, Aaron↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future of plasma etching for microelectronics: Challenges and opportunities

Plasma etching is an essential semiconductor manufacturing technology required to enable the current microelectronics industry. Along with lithographic patterning, thin-film formation methods, and others, plasma etching has dynamically evolved to meet the exponentially growing demands of the microelectronics industry that enables modern society. At this time, plasma etching faces a period of unprecedented changes owing to numerous factors, including aggressive transition to three-dimensional (3D) device architectures, process precision approaching atomic-scale critical dimensions, introduction of new materials, fundamental silicon device limits, and parallel evolution of post-CMOS approaches. The vast growth of the microelectronics industry has emphasized its role in addressing major societal challenges, including questions on the sustainability of the associated energy use, semiconductor manufacturing related emissions of greenhouse gases, and others. The goal of this article is to help both define the challenges for plasma etching and point out effective plasma etching technology options that may play essential roles in defining microelectronics manufacturing in the future. The challenges are accompanied by significant new opportunities, including integrating experiments with various computational approaches such as machine learning/artificial intelligence and progress in computational approaches, including the realization of digital twins of physical etch chambers through hybrid/coupled models. These prospects can enable innovative solutions to problems that were not available during the past 50 years of plasma etch development in the microelectronics industry. To elaborate on these perspectives, the present article brings together the views of various experts on the different topics that will shape plasma etching for microelectronics manufacturing of the future.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Wind Turbine Rotors of the Future: A Research Agenda from the Big Adaptive Rotor Project

This white paper outlines a roadmap to inform future research efforts around the wind turbine rotors of the future. The document is authored by researchers that have been working on the Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) and related initiatives at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. The Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy has been funding BAR since 2018. The learnings from BAR have been documented in dozens of publications. This new paper identifies unresolved critical challenges in wind turbine rotor technology and structures them in four large topic areas: 1. Predictive and validated numerical tools. 2. Design methods and standards. 3. Improvements in manufacturing. 4. Technological innovations. Although wind turbines have not changed in their core architecture, with the market almost entirely dominated by three-bladed upwind rotors, a vast amount of research has allowed to introduce technological innovations resulting in a reduction in levelized cost of energy that made wind competitive with all traditional sources of electricity. Focusing on the rotor, blades will keep following the trend of mass and stiffness reduction, will adopt segmentation, and will keep growing in length, both land-based and offshore. To support this continuous innovation, this white paper argues that research efforts in rotor technology at the national labs are best directed to the first three topic areas and to low technology-readiness-levels (1-3) innovations, leaving the task of implementing higher-TRL (4-9) technological innovations to industry stakeholders. This research roadmap is also well aligned with the upcoming roadmap defined during the International Energy Agency 109th Topical Expert Meeting on the Grand Challenges of Wind Energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational Exploration of High Entropy Alloys as Promising Materials for Future Beam Windows

With the ever-increasing demand for high beam power, the currently used beam-intercepting devices (BIDs) such as targets, and beam windows may not be able to handle the high power required for future accelerator complexes or the lifetime may be reduced drastically. As beam power increases, the damage incurred by BIDs, including thermal shock, fatigue, and irradiation damage, also rises. Therefore, it is imperative to design materials that can withstand high beam power for longer lifetimes. High entropy alloys (HEAs) have emerged as potential alternative materials for designing next-generation BIDs. In this study, we primarily focus on materials for developing beam windows for next-generation accelerator complexes. We propose an integrated approach that combines various computational techniques to study and design new materials. Specifically, we use CALPHAD, density functional theory (DFT), and molecular dynamics (MD) to comprehensively investigate the defect properties of suitable HEAs, offering potential alternatives for future beam windows. We begin by scanning the extensive phase space provided by Cr-Mn-V-Ti-Al-Co HEAs, selecting 8 compositions after evaluating approximately 120,000 unique compositions using CALPHAD. We, then employ DFT-informed machine learning techniques to develop force-field parameters. Finally, MD simulations using these developed force-field parameters will be used to study the effects of radiation damage on the defect and mechanical properties of the selected alloys. This research explains the use of the CALPHAD approach and shows how critical modeling (DFT and MD) is in developing novel material such as HEAs. It also highlights the promising role of machine learning in this field. The results from this study will greatly improve the novel materials development to be used in next-generation accelerator components, leading to higher beam power and longer operational times of BIDs.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-Assembling Microgrids for Resilient Distribution Systems of the Future: Implementation in a Commercial DERMS Platform

Microgrids have long provided resilience to critical facilities such as hospitals and military installations, and they are now increasingly being looked at as a building block for future grids to support the energy resilience needs of the grid of the future. State-of-the-art technologies, such as blackstart algorithms using renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) to effectively and seamlessly form microgrids, have been produced by national labs over the years. Their adoption by the utility industry would be critical to reap the most benefits toward energy and climate resilience, and the pathway is via commercialization of these self-assembling microgrid algorithms by integrating them in a commercial product platform. This project brings a national labs team (LLNL, LANL) together with a vendor (Smarter Grid Solutions) to perform proof-of-concept integration of the algorithms into the vendor’s commercial Distributed Energy Resources Management System (DERMS). The project provides a strong pathway to commercialization of the algorithms thereby promoting adoption of resilient microgrid technology by utilities to offer resilience benefits to all customers and especially to disadvantaged and underserved communities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Future of X-ray Irradiation: Addressing Supply Chain Risks and Opportunities (UUR Edition)

This study supports the Office of Radiological Security’s (ORS) mission of eliminating cesium irradiators by analyzing the supply chain for self-shielded X-ray irradiators (SSXIs), identifying potential risks, and proposing mitigation measures. The research focuses on the primary components of SSXIs, including X-ray tubes, controllers, generators, and coolers or chillers, and evaluates their vulnerabilities using a comprehensive risk matrix framework. The methodology includes subject matter expert (SME) interviews with relevant manufacturers and major stakeholders, a deep literature review, and a meta-analysis of maintenance reports provided by SSXI end users. Results show that while the SSXI market is small, it’s growing, and the highly global nature of the supply chain may create vulnerabilities for critical SSXI components (X-ray tubes are the most vulnerable, followed by generators and controllers). This research communicates necessary information to address concerns of current and future end users, especially those interested in transitioning away from radioactive sources, and informs future policy aimed at supporting the irradiation industry.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerators for the Future: R&D at the Fermilab FAST Facility

High energy physics in the U.S. has ambitious plans requiring new and improved accelerator technologies, including an upgraded complex at Fermilab for DUNE, next-generation light sources, and the potential of a future collider to be built on U.S. soil. To address these requirements, Fermilab operates the Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology (FAST) facility, dedicated to accelerator R&D. FAST includes an electron gun and superconducting RF linac (up to 300 MeV), a storage ring, and an upcoming proton source and injector line (up to 2.5 MeV). In addition to the future of Fermilab accelerators, the broad physics program includes general R&D with potential impact across the DOE science program. This colloquium will provide a basic introduction to accelerator technologies and describe the principles of proton and electron accelerators, including the challenges associated with next-generation operations. We will discuss the exciting R&D ongoing at FAST to address the required technological advancements, focusing on Non-Linear Integrable Optics (NIO) for improved beam intensity and Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC) for improved beam quality, and touching on a wide range of additional ongoing research. I intend to make the content interesting and accessible to those who have never taken any formal courses in accelerator physics.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Hydropower Game: An Interactive Learning Tool for the Future Hydropower Workforce

This report documents a Seedling project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), conducted by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). The Seedling and Sapling Program provides small grants over short duration to enable early-stage research at national laboratories. This funding mechanism is intended to cultivate innovative ideas and expand research road maps in hydropower and marine energy technologies. Under this Seedling award, the project team developed an educational outreach tool, or “serious game”, built in Python and powered by the Pygame library, aimed at teaching fundamental hydropower concepts through an engaging, interactive learning experience. The game features multiple lessons covering several hydropower topics while allowing for expansion and customization in the instance of future funding availability: • Hydropower Plant Types: Players explore and compare the mechanics and applications of run-of-river, dam hydropower, and pumped-storage hydropower. • Flow Dynamics and Power Generation: Interactive tasks demonstrate how release rate and hydraulic head combine to determine power output. • Grid Operations and Load Following: Simulations illustrate how hydropower facilities respond to fluctuating electricity demand to balance the grid. • Market Integration: Levels scaffold understanding of how hydropower interfaces with the broader energy market, including operational and economic considerations. The tool was showcased at several science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) outreach events, where it was demoed to students, educators, and the general public. These events provided valuable opportunities to collect feedback on the gameplay, storyline, and educational objectives from a wide audience. The game was presented at STEMapalooza, Introduce a Girl to Engineering Day, STEMCON, and Clean Currents 2025. Insights gathered during these demonstrations informed refinements to the game’s user experience and strengthened its effectiveness as an educational tool for teaching hydropower concepts. This report outlines the game’s design philosophy, educational objectives, technical implementation, user experience insights, and potential for broader deployment within educational and workforce development contexts. It emphasizes how gamified learning can demystify complex hydropower science and inspire interest in water-power technologies. The project’s success demonstrates the value of Seedling funding in fostering creative, lowcost educational tools that support DOE’s mission to advance energy literacy and innovation. The report concludes with recommendations for expanding the tool by adding new levels, integrating assessment metrics, and exploring commercialization or deployment pathways through future Sapling funding. The official webpage of the Hydropower Game, which includes a link to the educational tool, can be accessed at www.anl.gov/hydropower/hydropower-game.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Molten Salt Targets for Future High-Power Accelerator Facilities

This talk will give an overview of will give an overview of recent work that began to examine the feasibility of molten salts as a target material for very high power beams as a potential solution for some of the present and future challenges of high power targetry at Fermilab, anchored by the F2D2 conceptual design study. This will include discussion of target and beam dump applications as well as likely challenges, potential for future R&D, projects, and synergy with existing high-power targetry research.

Williams, Jonathan K. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Intelligent experiments through real-time AI: Fast Data Processing and Autonomous Detector Control for sPHENIX and future EIC detectors (Phase-I)

With an ever increasing demand for high precision data from modern detectors for discovery science and precision measurements, all major high energy nuclear and particle experiments, current and future, are facing the challenge on how to deal with the large volume of raw data generated from sophisticated state-of-the-art detectors in high rate collisions. These goals need to be balanced with available hardware and cost limits on DAQ (Data AcQuisition system) bandwidth and offline computing resources to capture, store and process the signal events. Two prototypical examples are the upcoming sPHENIX experiment, the DOE next generation heavy ion physics experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at BNL, and the future EIC experiments that are planned to be online circa 2030.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergency Management of Tomorrow Research: Emergency Operations Center of the Future Tabletop Exercise Nashua, NH Tabletop Exercise

As part of the Emergency Management (EM) of Tomorrow Research (EMOTR) program, sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed concepts for the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) of the Future to provide recommendations to assist DHS S&T in future decision-making with regards to research and development (R&D) and investments toward establishing a framework for a national, coordinated approach to EM. PNNL is conducting tabletop exercises (TTXs) designed to assess the impacts and benefits of emerging technologies on EM organizations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergency Management of Tomorrow Research: Emergency Operations Center of the Future Seattle, WA Tabletop Exercise

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergency Management of Tomorrow Research: Emergency Operations Center of the Future Madison, WI Tabletop Exercise

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Intelligent Experiments Through Real-time AI: Fast Data Processing and Autonomous Detector Control for sPHENIX and Future EIC Detectors (Final Report)

The overall vision of this project was to integrate real-time artificial intelligence (AI) directly into the data acquisition and detector-control systems of nuclear physics experiments, including both fast online event selection and an autonomous detector-control feedback loop. The work carried out under the award focused on the fast online event-selection half of that vision: the efficient recording of low-momentum heavy-flavor (HF) hadron decays in proton-proton collisions at the sPHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC)—an observable that requires fast tracking and topological trigger selection not previously demonstrated at RHIC, and that is essential for QCD studies at future facilities such as the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). The autonomous detector-control (GPU-based feedback) component named in the project title remained a design concept and was not implemented under this award. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) group led the offline simulation and data processing needed to train the machine-learning (ML) models, the translation of trained models to Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) firmware using the hls4ml framework, and the physics validation of heavy-flavor reconstruction. Over the award period, the team developed and hardware-tested the principal components of an AI-based heavy-flavor trigger on simulated and recorded sPHENIX tracker data: a software Bipartite Graph Attention Network (BiGAT) trigger model reaching > 95% signal efficiency at 99% background rejection; an FPGA-native hit clusterizer matching the offline clustering; smaller networks synthesized to FPGA within the required sub-10 µs latency; and an assembled decoder–clusterizer–inference firmware chain exercised on the FELIX readout board. A complete, fully integrated hardware demonstrator was not finished within the award period. This report documents the project goals, the MIT group’s contributions, the technical accomplishments, and the outlook toward applications at the future EIC ePIC detector.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗