NASA System-Wide Safety Project: The Future of Aviation Safety
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Daniel Kiggins↗
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Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future
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Samantha Basile↗
Generative adversarial networks for ensemble projections of future urban morphology
As city planners design and adapt cities for future resilience and intelligence, interactions among neighborhood morphological development with respect to changes in population and resultant built infrastructure's impact on the natural environment must be considered. For deep understanding of these interactions, explicit representation of future neighborhoods is necessary for future city modeling. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been shown to produce spatially accurate urban forms at scales representing entire cities to those at neighborhood and single building scale. Here we demonstrate a GAN method for generating an ensemble of possible new neighborhoods given land use characteristics and designated neighborhood type.
Dumas, Melissa↗
Understanding uncertainties in projections of western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis
Reliable projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the western North Pacific (WNP) are crucial for climate policy-making in densely-populated coastal Asia. Existing projections, however, exhibit considerable uncertainties with unclear sources. Here, based on future projections by the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models, we identify a new and prevailing source of uncertainty arising from different TC identification schemes. Notable differences in projections of detected TCs and empirical genesis potential indices are found to be caused by inconsistent changes in dynamic and thermodynamic environmental factors affecting TC formations. While model uncertainty holds the secondary importance, we show large potential in reducing it through improved model simulations of present-day TC characteristics. Internal variability noticeably impacts near-term projections of the WNP tropical cyclogenesis, while the relative contribution of scenario uncertainty remains small. Our findings provide valuable insights into model development and TC projections, thereby aiding in adaptation decisions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways
Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB
Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.
analytical models↗
Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States
Given the increasing use of climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting for a diverse array of applications, this project assesses the sensitivities of climate model weighting strategies and their resulting ensemble means to multiple components, such as the weighting schemes, climate variables, or spatial domains of interest. The purpose of this study is to assess the sensitivities associated with multi-model weighting strategies. The analysis makes use of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their statistically downscaled counterparts created with the localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method. This work focuses on historical and projected future mean precipitation and daily high temperatures of the south-central United States. Results suggest that the model weights and the corresponding weighted model means can be sensitive to the weighting strategy that is applied. For instance, when estimating model weights based on Louisiana precipitation, the weighted projections show a wetter and cooler south-central domain in the future compared to other weighting strategies. Alternatively, for example, when estimating model weights based on New Mexico temperature, the weighted projections show a drier and warmer south-central domain in the future. However, when considering the entire south-central domain in estimating the model weights, the weighted future projections show a compromise in the precipitation and temperature estimates. As for uncertainty, our matrix of results provided a more certain picture of future climate compared to the spread in the original model ensemble. If future impact assessments utilize weighting strategies, then our findings suggest that how the specific weighting strategy is used with climate projections may depend on the needs of an impact assessment or adaptation plan.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Discussion of DNS: Past, Present, and Future
This paper covers the review, status, and projected future of direct numerical simulation (DNS) methodology relative to the state-of-the-art in computer technology, numerical methods, and the trends in fundamental research programs.
Joslin, Ronald D.↗
Space Network Devices Developed
The NASA Glenn Research Center through a contract with Spectrum Astro, Inc., has been developing space network hardware as an enabling technology using open systems interconnect (OSI) standards for space-based communications applications. The OSI standard is a well-recognized layered reference model that specifies how data should be sent node to node in a communications network. Because of this research and technology development, a space-qualifiable Ethernet-based network interface card (similar to the type found in a networked personal computer) and the associated four-port hub were designed and developed to flight specifications. During this research and development, there also have been many lessons learned for determining approaches for migrating existing spacecraft architectures to an OSI-network-based platform. Industry has recognized the benefits of targeting hardware developed around OSI standards such as Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) or similar protocols for use in future generations of space communication systems. Some of these tangible benefits include overall reductions in mission schedule and cost and in system complexity. This development also brings us a step closer to the realization of a principal investigator on a terrestrial Internet site being able to interact with space platform assets in near real time. To develop this hardware, Spectrum Astro first conducted a technology analysis of alternatives study. For this analysis, they looked at the features of three protocol specifications: Ethernet (IEEE 802.3), Firewire (IEEE 1394), and Spacewire (IEEE 1355). A thorough analysis was performed on the basis of criteria such as current protocol performance and suitability for future space applications. Spectrum Astro also projected future influences such as cost, hardware and software availability, throughput performance, and integration procedures for current and transitive space architectures. After a thorough analysis, Ethernet was chosen because it was seen as the best longer term fit because of the prevalent commercial market; the current and projected availability of hardware, software, and development tools; and the ease of architecture integration.
Jones, Robert E.↗
gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation
gaia is an open-source R package designed to estimate crop yield shocks in response to annual weather variations and CO 2 concentrations at the country scale for 17 major crops. This innovative tool streamlines the workflow from raw climate data processing to projections of annual shocks to crop yields at the country level, using the response surfaces from an empirical econometric model developed and documented in Waldhoff et al. (2020), which leverages historical weather, CO 2 , and crop yield data for robust empirical fitting for 17 crops. gaia uses these response surfaces with monthly temperature and precipitation projections (e.g., from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016) climate data bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled by the ISIMIP3BASD approach (Lange, 2019) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) (Warszawski et al., 2014)) to project yield shocks that can be applied to agricultural productivity changes at the country level for use in multisectoral economic models. The historical and future projections use gridded, country-and-crop specific monthly growing season precipitation and temperature data, aggregated to the national level, and weighted by cropland area derived from the global Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset (Portmann et al., 2010). These annual, country, and crop-specific yield shocks can be aggregated to different definitions of regions, crop commodities, and time periods, as needed by specific multisectoral economic models. gaia serves as a lightweight, powerful tool that can aid exploration of crop yield responses under a broad range of future climate projections, enhancing human-Earth system analysis capabilities.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
High-Brightness Ultraviolet Lasers for Leap-Ahead National Security Applications
In this project we endeavored to improve the state-of-the-art in UV lasers diodes. We made important advancements in several fronts from modeling, to epitaxial growth, to fabrication, and testing. Throughout the project it became clear that polarization doping would be able to help advance the state of laser diode design in terms of electrical performance, but the optical design would need to be investigated to ensure that a 2D guided mode would be supported. New capability in optical modeling using commercial software demonstrated that the new polarization doped structures would be viable. New capability in pulsed testing was established to reach the current and voltage required. Our fabricated devices had some parasitic electrical paths which hindered performance that we were ultimately unable to overcome in the project timeframe. We do believe that future projects will be able to leverage the advancements made under this project.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Hydrogen utilization and alternatives
The historical uses of hydrogen are described along with potential new uses which could develop as a result of the diminishing supply of conventional fossil fuels such as natural gas. A perspective view of hydrogen, both as a chemical feedstock and as a fuel, is necessary to understand its relationship to the overall national energy projections. These projections, which show energy usage in terms of use sectors, forms of energy, and sources of energy, do not specifically identify hydrogen as a component of the energy system. By superimposing the traditional roles upon the new opportunities for hydrogen on the energy projections, the role of hydrogen and future projections is developed within the context of the national energy projections. Use, supply, and other factors affecting application are interrelated and are discussed.
Manvi, R.↗
NASA PERT time II
Program Evaulation and Review Technique (PERT) is disciplined management technique involving computer processing. NASA PERT Time 11 gives project manager insight into current and future project development and forewarns of potential problems. Program utilizes modular technique. Module is "fragnet"; once aspects of project are described in terms of fragnets, control network is automatically generated. Program is written in FORTRAN IV and OS Assembler for batch execution and has been implemented on IBM 370.
Bainbridge, R. C.↗
Automated support for experience-based software management
To effectively manage a software development project, the software manager must have access to key information concerning a project's status. This information includes not only data relating to the project of interest, but also, the experience of past development efforts within the environment. This paper describes the concepts and functionality of a software management tool designed to provide this information. This tool, called the Software Management Environment (SME), enables the software manager to compare an ongoing development effort with previous efforts and with models of the 'typical' project within the environment, to predict future project status, to analyze a project's strengths and weaknesses, and to assess the project's quality. In order to provide these functions the tool utilizes a vast corporate memory that includes a data base of software metrics, a set of models and relationships that describe the software development environment, and a set of rules that capture other knowledge and experience of software managers within the environment. Integrating these major concepts into one software management tool, the SME is a model of the type of management tool needed for all software development organizations.
Valett, Jon D.↗
Risk of Increased Fragmentation Events Due to Low Altitude Large Constellation Spacecraft
Orbital debris experts and industry leaders are concerned about the added hazard that thousands of additional spacecraft would have on the future orbital debris environment. Large constellations proposals plan to deploy spacecraft at altitudes from 1100 km to 1300 km, where fragmentation debris can take thousands of years or longer to decay naturally, while other proposals include deploying spacecraft at station-keeping altitudes from 300 km to 600 km. Although these lower altitude spacecraft are compliant with the 25-year rule, there is still an increased risk of accidental explosions generating high velocity fragments that could damage international spacecraft assets. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted several parametric studies that examine the potential negative environmental impacts of large constellation deployments. This study addresses the lower altitude constellations and the potential risk that they impose on the future environment during mission operations. The projected future environment is generated as the average of 100 LEGEND Monte Carlo (MC) simulation runs while adjusting parameters such as average probability of explosion and operational lifetime per constellation. Results of the effect of accidental explosions of large constellation spacecraft on the environment below 600 km altitude are analyzed.
Vavrin, A.↗
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Moisture‐Budget Drivers of Global Projections of Meteorological Drought From Multiple GCM Large Ensembles
Future projections of global meteorological drought are evaluated in the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, including an evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget, conditioned on drought years. Drought is defined as 5‐year running‐mean annual precipitation below some threshold, for example, 10th percentile. Drought increases in frequency over the subtropics, in addition to certain tropical regions, consistent with previous studies. Here, the moisture‐budget decomposition allows drought to be defined as mean‐flow, eddy, or feedback droughts, depending on which term in the equation contributes the largest negative interannual anomaly. In the historical climate, mean‐flow droughts constitute most droughts at low latitudes; eddy droughts are equally common at higher latitudes; feedback droughts (i.e., droughts exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks) constitute almost all droughts in water‐limited subtropical/Mediterranean regions. The future drought increases are predominantly due to increases in feedback droughts in regions where these droughts are common historically but also over the Amazon. However, over most Mediterranean‐type regions mean‐flow droughts are also large contributors, resulting from dynamics. Eddy droughts also contribute to future increases along the equatorward flanks of historical eddy‐driven jets, likely reflecting poleward shifts therein. Model uncertainty is particularly large over the Amazon and Australia, a reflection of model diversity in processes associated with land‐atmosphere interaction. Based on these results, an availability of 3‐D atmospheric data from a wider swath of global climate model large ensembles could help constrain global drought projections based on the representation of drought mechanisms in the historical climate.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections
This study uses different downscaling techniques and reference observations to investigate the characteristics of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and a projected future scenario. While previous studies agree on the projected changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes, there is a lack of consensus regarding how their size will change in response to an increase in radiative forcing. Moreover, the influence of different downscaling techniques on their characteristics has not been thoroughly examined. This study employs an ensemble of high‐resolution projections derived from six CMIP6 GCMs, using dynamical, statistical and artificial intelligence based downscaling techniques and two reference observations. Overall, we find noticeable differences in the size, average depth, and total precipitation volume of these storms among the climate ensembles in the historical period. Despite these differences in the historical period, we find consistent future changes across various ensembles. We find a robust projected increase in storm size during Winter and Spring but a decrease in size during Summer in the East. Nevertheless, irrespective of changes in their size, extreme storms are projected to intensify across all the ensembles and seasons.
Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗