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At least 127 records · Page 7

A Scalable Gaussian Process Approach to Shear Mapping with MuyGPs

Analysis of cosmic shear is an integral part of understanding structure growth across cosmic time, which in turn provides us with information about the nature of dark energy. Conventional methods generate shear maps from which we can infer the matter distribution in the universe. Current methods (e.g., Kaiser–Squires inversion) for generating these maps, however, are tricky to implement and can introduce bias. Recent alternatives construct a spatial process prior for the lensing potential, which allows for inference of the convergence and shear parameters given lensing shear measurements. Realizing these spatial processes, however, scales cubically in the number of observations—an unacceptable expense as near-term surveys expect billions of correlated measurements. Therefore, we present a linearly scaling shear map construction alternative using a scalable Gaussian process prior called MuyGPs. MuyGPs avoids cubic scaling by conditioning interpolation on only nearest neighbors and fits hyperparameters using batched leave-one-out cross-validation. This work is the first step toward a full, scalable mass mapping method. We work in a simplified regime where we validate our method by interpolating and analyzing maps given noisy point-estimate data from all three shear fields, taken from a suite of N -body ray-tracing simulations. We also show that we can perform these operations at the scale of billions of galaxies on high-performance computing platforms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multitask methods for predicting molecular properties from heterogeneous data

Data generation remains a bottleneck in training surrogate models to predict molecular properties. We demonstrate that multitask Gaussian process regression overcomes this limitation by leveraging both expensive and cheap data sources. In particular, we consider training sets constructed from coupled-cluster (CC) and density functional theory (DFT) data. We report that multitask surrogates can predict at CC-level accuracy with a reduction in data generation cost by over an order of magnitude. Of note, our approach allows the training set to include DFT data generated by a heterogeneous mix of exchange–correlation functionals without imposing any artificial hierarchy on functional accuracy. More generally, the multitask framework can accommodate a wider range of training set structures—including the full disparity between the different levels of fidelity—than existing kernel approaches based on Δ-learning although we show that the accuracy of the two approaches can be similar. Consequently, multitask regression can be a tool for reducing data generation costs even further by opportunistically exploiting existing data sources.

Chemistry↗

Quantifying bias due to non-Gaussian foregrounds in an optimal reconstruction of CMB lensing and temperature power spectra

We estimate the magnitude of the bias due to non-Gaussian extragalactic foregrounds on the optimal reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential and temperature power spectra. The reconstruction is performed using a Bayesian inference method known as the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE). We apply MUSE to a minimum variance combination of multifrequency maps drawn from the Agora publicly available simulations of the lensed CMB and correlated extragalactic foreground emission. Taking noise levels appropriate to the SPT-3G D1 release, we find non-Gaussian foregrounds may bias the MUSE reconstruction of the lensing potential amplitude at the level of (0.7 ± 0.3)σ when using modes up to ℓ max = 3500. We do not detect a statistically significant bias, finding a value of (-0.4 ± 0.3)σ, when restricted to lower angular multipoles, ℓ max = 3000. This work is a first step toward understanding the impact of extragalactic foregrounds on optimal reconstructions of CMB temperature and lensing potential power spectra.

Statistical sampling techniques↗

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Determination of proton PDF uncertainties with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes’ theorem and, thus, provides a means to directly sample the underlying probability distribution—in this case, the probability distribution of the PDF parameters. This allows for a straightforward propagation of the resulting uncertainties into any PDF-dependent observable, preserving their simple probabilistic interpretation. In our analysis we include a broad set of deep inelastic scattering data from HERA, BCDMS and NMC experiments along with the Drell-Yan, 𝑊 and 𝑍 boson data from LHC and Tevatron experiments, which combined with theoretical calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD allow for realistic determination of PDFs. The main focus of this analysis is to explore alternative methods for PDF uncertainty estimation that are more firmly grounded in statistical principles. We show that the flexibility of the Bayes framework, allowing one, e.g., to account for non-Gaussianity or inconsistencies of datasets, is crucial to extract realistic uncertainties when such assumptions are not fulfilled. We also demonstrate that MCMC allows one to determine the Δ⁢𝜒 2 value corresponding to a given confidence level in the sample, which can, in turn, be used as a statistically well-founded tolerance criterion used in the Hessian method, thus addressing one of its main long-standing drawbacks.

Risse, Peter Clemens [Universität Münster (Germany↗

Quantification of Native Lignin Structural Features with Gel–Phase 2D–HSQC 0 Reveals Lignin Structural Changes During Extraction

Our ability to study and valorize the lignin fraction of biomass is hampered by the fundamental and still unmet challenge of precisely quantifying native lignin's structural features. Here, we developed a rapid elevated-temperature 1 H– 13 C Heteronuclear Single-Quantum Coherence Zero (HSQC 0 ) NMR method that enables this precise quantification of native lignin structural characteristics even with whole plant cell wall (WPCW) NMR spectroscopy, overcoming fast spin relaxation in the gel phase. We also formulated a Gaussian fitting algorithm to perform automatic and reliable spectral integration. By combining HSQC 0 measurements with yield measurements following depolymerisation, we can confirm the combinatorial nature of radical coupling reactions during biosynthesis leading to a random sequential organization of linkages within a largely linear lignin chain. Such analyses illustrate how this analytical method can greatly facilitate the study of native lignin structure, which can then be used for fundamental studies or to understand lignin depolymerization methods like reductive catalytic fractionation or aldehyde-assisted fractionation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantification of Native Lignin Structural Features with Gel–Phase 2D–HSQC 0 Reveals Lignin Structural Changes During Extraction

Our ability to study and valorize the lignin fraction of biomass is hampered by the fundamental and still unmet challenge of precisely quantifying native lignin's structural features. Here, we developed a rapid elevated-temperature 1 H– 13 C Heteronuclear Single-Quantum Coherence Zero (HSQC 0 ) NMR method that enables this precise quantification of native lignin structural characteristics even with whole plant cell wall (WPCW) NMR spectroscopy, overcoming fast spin relaxation in the gel phase. We also formulated a Gaussian fitting algorithm to perform automatic and reliable spectral integration. By combining HSQC 0 measurements with yield measurements following depolymerisation, we can confirm the combinatorial nature of radical coupling reactions during biosynthesis leading to a random sequential organization of linkages within a largely linear lignin chain. Such analyses illustrate how this analytical method can greatly facilitate the study of native lignin structure, which can then be used for fundamental studies or to understand lignin depolymerization methods like reductive catalytic fractionation or aldehyde-assisted fractionation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗

Monte Carlo Explicitly Correlated Second-Order Many-Body Green’s Function Calculations of Semiconductor Band Gaps

A systematically converging series of ab initio, post-density-functional, size-consistent, electron-correlated approximations is desired for predictive computing of felectronic band structures of insulating, semiconducting, and metallic solids. A series that meets all of these desiderata (except the applicability to metals) is ab initio many-body Green's function theory based on Gaussian-type-orbital (GTO) basis sets. Here, its leading-order approximation, the second-order Green's function (GF2) method in the diagonal and frequency-independent approximations with the aug-cc-pVDZ basis set, is applied to the fundamental band gaps of three semiconductors (diamond, silicon, and silicon carbide in the zincblende structure) using cluster models. Corrections are made to the basis-set-incompleteness errors by the explicit-correlation (F12) ansatz (GF2-F12) for the valence band edges. The crystals are modeled as surface-passivated clusters of increasing sizes, whose wave functions are expanded by up to 2709 GTO basis functions. Immense computational costs of these calculations are overcome by the highly scalable stochastic algorithm of the Monte Carlo GF2-F12 method, whose operation cost per state increases only as a cubic power of system size, which has a tiny memory footprint and easily achieves near-perfect parallel efficiency on thousands of CPUs or on hundreds of GPUs. The correlated, F12-corrected highest-occupied and lowest-unoccupied molecular-orbital energy (HOMO-LUMO) gap is 5.78 ± 0.07 eV for C 87 H 76 as compared with the experimental value of the fundamental (indirect) band gap of bulk diamond at 5.48 eV. The correlated, F12-corrected HOMO-LUMO gaps for Si 75 H 76 and Si 32 C 43 H 76 are 2.56 ± 0.15 eV and 3.50 ± 0.12 eV, respectively, which are expected to decrease further with increasing cluster sizes. As a result, the experimental fundamental (indirect) band gaps of bulk silicon and silicon carbide are 1.17 eV and 2.42 eV, respectively.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Suppressing the sample variance of DESI-like galaxy clustering with fast simulations

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k 2 = 2k 1 = 0.2 h Mpc -1 by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hydrogen Bond Benchmark: Focal‐Point Analysis and Assessment of DFT Functionals

We performed a hierarchical, convergent ab initio benchmark study and systematically analyzed the performance of density functional approximations for describing hydrogen bonds in small neutral, cationic, and anionic complexes, as well as in larger systems involving amide, urea, deltamide, and squaramide moieties. Focal point analyses (FPA), extrapolating to the ab initio limit, were carried out using correlated wave function methods up to CCSDT(Q) for the small complexes and CCSD(T) for the larger systems, together with correlation-consistent Gaussian basis sets up to the complete basis set limit. Optimized geometries and vibrational frequencies were obtained at the CCSD(T) level. The resulting FPA hydrogen-bond energies converge within a few tenths of a kcal mol −1 . These reference data were used to evaluate 60 density functionals (including 12 dispersion-corrected), spanning the local-density approximation (LDA), generalized gradient approximations (GGAs), meta-GGAs, hybrids, meta-hybrids, double-hybrids, and range-separated hybrids. Overall, the meta-hybrid M06-2X provides the best performance for both hydrogen bond energies and geometries, while the dispersion-corrected GGAs BLYP-D3(BJ) and BLYP-D4 also yield accurate hydrogen-bond data and can serve as cost-effective options for studying large and complex systems.

coupled cluster theory↗

Benchmarking machine learning interatomic potentials via phonon anharmonicity

Abstract Machine learning approaches have recently emerged as powerful tools to probe structure-property relationships in crystals and molecules. Specifically, machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) can accurately reproduce first-principles data at a cost similar to that of conventional interatomic potential approaches. While MLIPs have been extensively tested across various classes of materials and molecules, a clear characterization of the anharmonic terms encoded in the MLIPs is lacking. Here, we benchmark popular MLIPs using the anharmonic vibrational Hamiltonian of ThO 2 in the fluorite crystal structure, which was constructed from density functional theory (DFT) using our highly accurate and efficient irreducible derivative methods. The anharmonic Hamiltonian was used to generate molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories, which were used to train three classes of MLIPs: Gaussian approximation potentials, artificial neural networks (ANN), and graph neural networks (GNN). The results were assessed by directly comparing phonons and their interactions, as well as phonon linewidths, phonon lineshifts, and thermal conductivity. The models were also trained on a DFT MD dataset, demonstrating good agreement up to fifth-order for the ANN and GNN. Our analysis demonstrates that MLIPs have great potential for accurately characterizing anharmonicity in materials systems at a fraction of the cost of conventional first principles-based approaches.

interatomic potentials↗

MAGIC: M arching Cubes Isosurface Uncertainty Visualization for G auss i an Uncertain Data With Spatial C orrelation

Here, in this paper, we study the propagation of data uncertainty through the marching cubes algorithm for isosurface visualization for correlated uncertain data. Consideration of correlation has been shown paramount for avoiding errors in uncertainty quantification and visualization in multiple prior studies. Although the problem of isosurface uncertainty with spatial data correlation has been previously addressed, there are two major limitations to prior treatments. First, there are no analytical formulations for uncertainty quantification of isosurfaces when the data uncertainty is characterized by a Gaussian distribution with spatial correlation. Second, as a consequence of the lack of analytical formulations,existing techniques resort to a Monte Carlo sampling approach, which is expensive and difficult to integrate into visualization tools. To address these limitations, we present a closed-form framework to efficiently derive uncertainty in marching cubes level-sets for Gaussian uncertain data with spatial correlation (MAGIC). To derive closed-form solutions, we leverage the Hinkley's derivation on the ratio of Gaussian distributions. With our analytical framework, we achieve a significant speed-up and enhanced accuracy of uncertainty quantification over classical Monte Carlo methods. We further accelerate our analytical solutions using many-core processors to achieve speed-ups up to 585× and integrability with production visualization tools for broader impact. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our correlation-aware uncertainty framework through experiments on meteorology, urban flow, and astrophysics simulation datasets.

Gaussian↗

Efficient near-field ptychography reconstruction using the Hessian operator

X-ray ptychography is a powerful and robust coherent imaging method providing access to the complex object and probe (illumination). Ptychography reconstruction is typically performed using first-order methods due to their computational efficiency. Higher-order methods, while potentially more accurate, are often prohibitively expensive in terms of computation. In this study, we present a mathematical framework for reconstruction using second-order information derived from an efficient computation of the bilinear Hessian and Hessian operator. The formulation is provided for Gaussian-based models, enabling the simultaneous reconstruction of the object, probe, and object positions. Synthetic data tests, along with experimental near-field ptychography data processing, demonstrate a ten-fold reduction in computation time compared to first-order methods. The derived formulas for computing the Hessians, along with the strategies for incorporating them into optimization schemes, are well-structured and easily adaptable to various ptychography problem formulations.

Carlsson, Marcus [Lund Univ. (Sweden)] (ORCID:0000↗

Mapping causal patterns in crystalline solids

The evolution of the atomic structures of the combinatorial library of Sm-substituted thin film BiFeO 3 along the phase transition boundary from the ferroelectric rhombohedral phase to the non-ferroelectric orthorhombic phase is explored using scanning transmission electron microscopy. Localized properties, including polarization, lattice parameter, and chemical composition, are parameterized from atomic-scale imaging, and their causal relationships are reconstructed using a linear non-Gaussian acyclic model. This approach is further extended to explore the spatial variability of the causal coupling using the sliding window transform method, which revealed that new causal relationships emerged at both the expected locations, such as domain walls and interfaces, and at additional regions forming clusters in the vicinity of the walls or spatially distributed features. While the exact physical origins of these relationships are unclear, they likely represent nanophase-separated regions in the morphotropic phase boundaries. Overall, we posit that an in-depth understanding of complex disordered materials away from thermodynamic equilibrium necessitates understanding not only the generative processes that can lead to observed microscopic states but also the causal links between multiple interacting subsystems.

Causal inference↗

3D reconstruction and neural rendering for adversarial machine learning

While evasion attacks on computer vision systems have been widely studied, creating attacks that remain effective under significant changes in viewpoint continues to be challenging. Traditional approaches often rely on affine transformations of images, but these approaches degrade at larger perspective shifts and often produce unrealistic or ineffective perturbations. Recent methods use differentiable renderers to improve viewpoint robustness, but they typically depend on manually constructed 3D models. We introduce a semi-automated pipeline that generates physically printable and perspective-invariant adversarial patches using only a small set of 2D images. Our method integrates 3D reconstruction, neural rendering, adversarial patch optimization, and an object detection victim model into a unified workflow. We use 2D Gaussian Splatting for high fidelity mesh reconstruction and FlexPara for surface parameterization that produces texture maps suitable for patch editing. Together, these components form a fully differentiable pipeline in PyTorch3D that links texture modification to model outputs, enabling efficient optimization of patches that remain effective across many viewpoints. The complete process, from image capture to patch printing and physical evaluation, can be completed within a few hours. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting patches through attacks on the YOLOv8 object detection model and discuss remaining challenges and opportunities for improving robustness and scalability.

Singhvi, Vivaan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000586288221)↗

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations, and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model–data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO 2 and H 2 O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

Rotman, Yoav [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗