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At least 127 records · Page 7

A Mini-Surge on theRyder Glacier, Greenland Observed via Satelite Radar Interferometry

A dramatic short term speed up of the Ryder glacier has been detected using satellite radar interferometry. The accelerated flow represents a substantial, though short-lived, change in the ice discharge from this basin. We believe that meltwater was involved in this event, either as an active participant, as meltwater-filled lakes on the surface of the glacier drained during the period of rapid motion.

Ryder glacier Greenland ice sheet Antarctictic ice↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-31979-DND

The rapid, and in many cases, unprecedented changes in the Arctic climate system observed since 1979 are having devastating impacts on both natural and human systems. These changes are marked by warming Arctic temperatures, rapid declines in sea ice and snow cover, permafrost thaw, mountain glacier melt, and Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss. A common thread through each of these changes is the impact on the surface energy budget. However, our understanding of the controls on and variability of the Arctic surface energy budget is incomplete and this contributes to the significant biases in the climate models. To better understand the controls on the variability of the Arctic surface energy budget and CMIP5 model biases, we use an atmospheric regime-based perspective of the Arctic surface energy budget decomposing variability by atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic properties.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

Extreme High Greenland Blocking Index Leads to the Reversal of Davis and Nares Strait Net Transport Towards the Arctic Ocean

Baffin Bay exports Arctic Water to the North Atlantic while receiving northward flowing Atlantic Water. Warm Atlantic Water has impacted the retreat of tidewater glaciers draining the Greenland Ice Sheet. Periods of enhanced Atlantic Water transport into Baffin Bay have been observed, but the oceanic processes are still not fully explained. At the end of 2010 the net transport at Davis Strait, the southern gateway to Baffin Bay, reversed from southward to northward for a month, leading to significant northward oceanic heat transport into Baffin Bay. This was associated with an extreme high in the Greenland Blocking Index and a stormtrack path that shifted away from Baffin Bay. Thus fewer cyclones in the Irminger Sea resulted in less frequent northerly winds along the western coast of Greenland, allowing anomalous northward penetration of warm waters, reversing the volume and heat transport at Davis Strait.

Davis Strait↗

The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 1. Hydrology Model

We apply a novel one-dimensional glacier hydrology model that calculates hydraulic head to the tidewater-terminating Sermeq Avannarleq flowline of the Greenland ice sheet. Within a plausible parameter space, the model achieves a quasi-steady-state annual cycle in which hydraulic head oscillates close to flotation throughout the ablation zone. Flotation is briefly achieved during the summer melt season along a approx.17 km stretch of the approx.50 km of flowline within the ablation zone. Beneath the majority of the flowline, subglacial conduit storage closes (i.e. obtains minimum radius) during the winter and opens (i.e. obtains maximum radius) during the summer. Along certain stretches of the flowline, the model predicts that subglacial conduit storage remains open throughout the year. A calculated mean glacier water residence time of approx.2.2 years implies that significant amounts of water are stored in the glacier throughout the year. We interpret this residence time as being indicative of the timescale over which the glacier hydrologic system is capable of adjusting to external surface meltwater forcings. Based on in situ ice velocity observations, we suggest that the summer speed-up event generally corresponds to conditions of increasing hydraulic head during inefficient subglacial drainage. Conversely, the slowdown during fall generally corresponds to conditions of decreasing hydraulic head during efficient subglacial drainage.

Colgan, William↗

Multifidelity deep operator networks for data-driven and physics-informed problems

Operator learning for complex nonlinear systems is increasingly common in modeling multi-physics and multi-scale systems. However, training such high-dimensional operators requires a large amount of expensive, high-fidelity data, either from experiments or simulations. In this work, we present a composite Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) for learning using two datasets with different levels of fidelity to accurately learn complex operators when sufficient high-fidelity data is not available. Additionally, we demonstrate that the presence of low-fidelity data can improve the predictions of physics-informed learning with DeepONets. We demonstrate the new multi-fidelity training in diverse examples, including modeling of the ice-sheet dynamics of the Humboldt glacier, Greenland, using two different fidelity models and also using the same physical model at two different resolutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ambiguous Stability of Glaciers at Bed Peaks

Increasing ice flux from glaciers retreating over deepening (retrograde) bed topography has been implicated in the recent acceleration of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We show in observations that some glaciers have remained at peaks in bed topography without retreating despite enduring significant changes in climate. Observations also indicate that some glaciers which persist at bed peaks undergo sudden retreat years or decades after the onset of local ocean or atmospheric warming. Using model simulations, we show that persistence of a glacier at a bed peak is caused by ice slowing as it flows up a reverse-sloping bed to the peak. Persistence at bed peaks may lead to two very different future behaviors for a glacier: one where it persists at a bed peak indefinitely, and another where it retreats from the bed peak after potentially long delays following climate forcing. However, it is nearly impossible to distinguish which of these two future behaviors will occur from current observations. We conclude that inferring glacier stability from observations of persistence obscures our true commitment to future sea-level rise under climate change. We recommend that further research is needed on seemingly stable glaciers to determine their likely future.

ice dynamics↗

Hybrid Glacier Inventory, Gravimetry and Altimetry (HIGA) Mass Balance Product for Greenland and the Canadian Arctic

We present a novel inversion algorithm that generates a mass balance field that is simultaneously consistent with independent observations of glacier inventory derived from optical imagery, cryosphere-attributed mass trends derived from satellite gravimetry, and ice surface elevation trends derived from airborne and satellite altimetry. We use this algorithm to assess mass balance across Greenland and the Canadian Arctic over the Sep-2003 to Oct- 2009 period at 26 kilometers resolution. We evaluate local algorithm-inferred mass balance against forty in situ point observations. This evaluation yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.15 mWE/a ( 0.15 meters (water equivalent) per annum), and highlights a paucity of in situ observations from regions of high dynamic mass loss and peripheral glaciers. We assess mass losses of 212 plus or minus 67 Gigatons per annum to the Greenland ice sheet proper, 38 Gigatons per annum to peripheral glaciers in Greenland, and 42 Gigatons per annum to glaciers in the Canadian Arctic. These magnitudes of mass loss are dependent on the gravimetry-derived spherical harmonic mass trend we invert. We spatially partition the transient glacier continuity equation by differencing algorithm inferred mass balance from modeled surface mass balance, in order to solve the horizontal divergence of ice flux as a residual. This residual ice dynamic field infers flux divergence (or submergent flow) in the ice sheet accumulation area and at tidewater margins, and flux convergence (or emergent flow) in land-terminating ablation areas, which is consistent with continuum mechanics theory.

Altimetry↗

SICOPOLIS-AD v1: an open-source adjoint modeling framework for ice sheet simulation enabled by the algorithmic differentiation tool OpenAD

We present a new capability of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS that enables flexible adjoint code generation via source transformation using the open-source algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool OpenAD.The adjoint code enables efficient calculation of the sensitivities of a scalar-valued objective function or quantity of interest (QoI) to a range of important, often spatially varying and uncertain model input variables, including initial and boundary conditions, as well as model parameters.Compared to earlier work on the adjoint code generation of SICOPOLIS, our work makes several important advances:(i) it is embedded within the up-to-date trunk of the SICOPOLIS repository – accounting for 1.5 decades of code development and improvements – and is readily available to the wider community;(ii) the AD tool used, OpenAD, is an open-source tool;(iii) the adjoint code developed is applicable to both Greenland and Antarctica, including grounded ice as well as floating ice shelves, with an extended choice of thermodynamical representations.A number of code refactorization steps were required. They are discussed in detail in an Appendix as they hold lessons for the application of AD to legacy codes at large.As an example application, we examine the sensitivity of the total Antarctic Ice Sheet volume to changes in initial ice thickness, austral summer precipitation, and basal and surface temperatures across the ice sheet.Simulations of Antarctica with floating ice shelves show that over 100 years of simulation the sensitivity of total ice sheet volume to the initial ice thickness and precipitation is almost uniformly positive, while the sensitivities to surface and basal temperature are almost uniformly negative. Sensitivity to austral summer precipitation is largest on floating ice shelves from Queen Maud to Queen Mary Land. The largest sensitivity to initial ice thickness is at outlet glaciers around Antarctica. Comparison between total ice sheet volume sensitivities to surface and basal temperature shows that surface temperature sensitivities are higher broadly across the floating ice shelves, while basal temperature sensitivities are highest at the grounding lines of floating ice shelves and outlet glaciers. A uniformly perturbed region of East Antarctica reveals that, among the four control variables tested here, total ice sheet volume is the most sensitive to variations in austral summer precipitation as formulated in SICOPOLIS.Comparison between adjoint- and finite-difference-derived sensitivities shows good agreement, lending confidence that the AD tool is producing correct adjoint code.The new modeling infrastructure is freely available at http://www.sicopolis.net (last access: 2 April 2020) under the development trunk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

How Much, How Fast?: A Science Review and Outlook for Research on the Instability of Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier in the 21st Century

Constraining how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will change in the coming decades has recently been identified as the highest priority in Antarctic research (National Academies, 2015). Here we review recent research on WAIS and outline further scientific objectives for the area now identified as the most likely to undergo near-term significant change: Thwaites Glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea. Multiple lines of evidence point to an ongoing rapid loss of ice in this region in response to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Models of the ice sheets dynamic behavior indicate a potential for greatly accelerated ice loss as ocean-driven melting at the Thwaites Glacier grounding zone and nearby areas leads to thinning, faster flow, and retreat. A complete retreat of the Thwaites Glacier basin would raise global sea level by more than three meters by entraining ice from adjacent catchments. This scenario could occur over the next few centuries, and faster ice loss could occur through processes omitted from most ice flow models such as hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, which have been observed in recent rapid ice retreats elsewhere. Increased basal melt at the grounding zone and increased potential for hydrofracture due to enhanced surface melt could initiate a more rapid collapse of Thwaites Glacier within the next few decades.

Thwaites Glacier↗

Investigating Long-term Behavior of Outlet Glaciers in Greenland

Repeat surveys by airborne laser altimetry in the 1990s have revealed significant thinning of outlet glaciers draining the interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet, with thinning rates up to several meters per year. To fully appreciate the significance of these recent glacier changes, the magnitude of retreat and surface lowering must be placed within the broader context of the retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum and, more significantly, of the retreat following the temporary glacier advance during the Little Ice Age (LIA). The LIA maximum stand is marked by trimlines, sharp boundaries between recently deglacifated unvegetated rocks, and vegetated surfaces at higher elevations. The objective of this project was to demonstrate the use of remote sensing data to map these trimlines and other glacial geomorphologic features.

Csatho, Beata↗

Helheim Glacier Ice Velocity Variability Responds to Runoff and Terminus Position, but at Different Timescales

The Greenland Ice Sheet discharges ice to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers. Recent acceleration of Greenland outlet glaciers has been linked to both oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Here, we leverage temporally dense observations, regional climate model output, and newly developed time series analysis tools to assess the most important forcings causing ice flow variability at one of the largest Greenland outlet glaciers, Helheim Glacier, from 2009 to 2017. We find that ice speed correlates most strongly with catchment-integrated runoff at seasonal to interannual scales, while multi-annual flow variability correlates most strongly with multi-annual terminus variability. The disparate time scales and the influence of subglacial topography on Helheim Glacier’s dynamics highlight different regimes that can inform modeling and forecasting of its future. Notably, our results suggest that the recent terminus history observed at Helheim is a response to, rather than the cause of, upstream changes.

Cryospheric science↗

Steep Glacier Bed Knickpoints Mitigate Inland Thinning in Greenland

Greenland’s outlet glaciers have been a leading source of mass loss and accompanying sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over the last 25 years. The dynamic component of outlet glacier mass loss depends on both the ice flux through the terminus and the inland extent of glacier thinning, initiated at the ice-ocean interface. Here, we find limits to the inland spread of thinning that initiates at glacier termini for 141 ocean-terminating outlet glaciers around the GrIS. Inland diffusion of thinning is limited by steep reaches of bed topography that we call “knickpoints.” We show that knickpoints exist beneath the majority of outlet glaciers but they are less steep in regions of gentle bed topography, giving glaciers in gentle bed topography the potential to contribute to ongoing and future mass loss from the GrIS by allowing the diffusion of thinning far into the ice sheet interior.

Denis Felikson↗

Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi-Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change

Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in tidewater glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections that are used in the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal (<1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on decadal-scale (30 years) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries and investigate the impact of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an 39% underestimate or 25% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected, depending on bed slope and magnitude of oscillations. The bias is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Although omitting seasonal terminus motion may bias mass change projections of individual glaciers, further work is needed to investigate the impact on ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate numerical models. Note: Zip folder contains all videos listed in the supplemental document and can be downloaded for viewing.

D. Felikson↗

Geostatistical evaluation of satellite radar altimetry for high-resolution mapping of Lambert Glacier, Antarctica

The potential of satellite radar altimetry for high-resolution mapping of Antarctic ice streams is evaluated, using retracked and slope-corrected data from the Lambert Glacier and Amery Ice Shelf area, East Antarctica, acquired by Geosat during the Exact Repeat Mission (ERM), 1986-89. The map area includes lower Lambert Glacier north of 72.18 deg S, the southern Amery Ice Shelf, and the grounded inland ice sheet on both sides. The Geosat ERM altimetry is found to provide substantially more complete coverage than the 1978 Seasat altimetry, due to improved tracking. Variogram methods are used to estimate the noise levels in the data as a function of position throughout the map area. The spatial structure in the data is quantified by constructing experimental variograms using altimetry from the area of the grounding zone of Lambert Glacier, which is the area chiefly of interest in this topographically complex region. Kriging is employed to invert the along-track height measurements onto a fine-scale 3 km grid. The unsmoothed along-track Geosat ERM altimetry yields spatially continuous maps showing the main topographic features of lower Lambert Glacier, upper Amery Ice Shelf and the adjacent inland ice sheet. The probable position of the grounding line of Lambert Glacier is identified from a break in slope at the grounded ice/floating ice transition. The approximate standard error of the kriged map is inferred from the data noise levels.

Herzfeld, Ute C.↗

Understanding Recent Mass Balance Changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the current transfer of mass between the Greenland Ice Sheet, the world's oceans and the atmosphere, and to identify processes controlling the rate of this transfer, to be able to predict with greater confidence future contributions to global sea level rise. During the first year of this project, we focused on establishing longer-term records of change of selected outlet glaciers, reevaluation of mass input to the ice sheet and analysis of climate records derived from ice cores, and modeling meltwater production and runoff from the margins of the ice sheet.

vanderVeen, Cornelius↗

Updating the results of glacier contribution to the sea level change

I have completed an update of global glacier volume change. All data of glacier annual mass balances, surface area over the period 1945/46 till 2004, outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were included in this update. As the result global glacier volume change have been calculated, also in terms of glacier contribution to sea level change. These results were sent to Working Group 1 and 2 of IPCC-4 as the basis for modeling of sea level towards the end of 2100. In this study I have concentrated on studying glacier systems of different scales, from primary (e.g. Devon ice cap) to regional (e.g. Canadian Arctic), continental scale (e,g., entire Arctic), and global (e.g., change in glacier volume and contribution to sea level rise).

Dyurgerov, Mark B.↗

The impacts of warming on rapidly retreating high-altitude, low-latitude glaciers and ice core-derived climate records

Alpine glaciers in the low- and mid-latitudes respond more quickly than large polar ice sheets to changes in temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity, and radiation. Many high-altitude glaciers are monitored by ground observations, aerial photography, and satellite-borne sensors. Regardless of latitude and elevation, nearly all nonpolar glaciers and ice caps are undergoing mass loss, which compromises the records of past climate preserved within them. Almost without exception, the retreat of these ice fields is persistent, and a very important driver is the recent warming of the tropical troposphere and oceans. Here we present data on the decrease in the surface area of four glaciers from low- to mid-latitude mountainous regions: the Andes of Peru and northern Bolivia, equatorial east Africa, equatorial Papua, Indonesia, and the western Tibetan Plateau. Climate records based on oxygen isotopic ratios (δ18O) measured in ice cores drilled from several glaciers in these regions reveal that the records from elevations below ~6000 m above sea level have been substantially modified by seasonal melting and the movement of meltwater through porous upper firn layers. Fortunately, δ18O records recovered from higher altitude sites still contain well-preserved seasonal variations to the surface; however, the projected increase in the rate of atmospheric warming implies that climate records from higher elevation glaciers will eventually also be degraded. A long-term ice core collection program on the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru, Earth's largest tropical ice cap, illustrates that the deterioration of its climate record is concomitant with the increase in mid-troposphere temperatures. The melting ice and resulting growth of proglacial lakes presents an imminent hazard to nearby communities. The accelerating melting of glaciers, if sustained, ensures the eventual loss of unique and irreplaceable climate histories, as well as profound economic, agricultural, and cultural impacts on local communities.

Low-latitude glaciers↗