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At least 127 records · Page 7

Grain export restrictions during COVID-19 risk food insecurity in many low and middle income countries

Global food security is threatened by the effects of COVID-19 on international agricultural supply chains and locusts destroying crops and livelihoods in the Horn of Africa and South Asia. We quantify the possible impacts on global supplies and prices of wheat, rice and maize. We show that local production declines have moderate impacts on global prices and supply – but trade restrictions and precautionary purchases by a few key actors could create global food price spikes and severe local food shortages.

Grain export restrictions↗

Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event

Global food security can be threatened by short-term extreme events that negatively impact food production, food purchasing power, and agricultural economic activity. At the same time, environmental pollutants like greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be reduced due to the same short-term extreme stressors. Stress events include pandemics like COVID-19 and widespread droughts like those experienced in 2015. Here we consider the question: what if COVID-19 had co-occurred with a 2015-like drought year? Using a coupled biophysical-economic modeling framework, we evaluate how this compound stress would alter both agricultural sector GHG emissions and change the number of undernourished people worldwide. We further consider three interdependent adaptation options: local water use for crop production, regional shifts in cropland area, and global trade of agricultural products. We find that GHG emissions decline due to reduced economic activity in the agricultural sector, but this is paired with large increases in undernourished populations in developing nations. Local and regional adaptations that make use of natural resources enable global-scale reductions in impacted populations via increased global trade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flood Monitoring and Crop Damage Assessment

In recent years, the occurrence and impact of inland and coastal flood events have become more frequent and damaging, especially within agricultural fields, due to the global climate change and consistent sea level rise. Monitoring and measuring the magnitude of flood events in a timely manner and assessing the subsequent crop damages accurately are precursors in minimizing detrimental consequences that could potentially lead to a global food security crisis. Traditional gauge-based measurements with sophisticated hydrological models are capable of monitoring flood events precisely but limited within the smaller spatial extent, time-consuming, and costly. In recent decades, advancement in airborne- and satellite-based remote sensing technologies offering products at a daily global spatial extent with various spectral resolution helps address the shortcomings of the traditional in situ approaches in flood monitoring. Furthermore, the methods such as classification and band ratioing using remote sensing products are simple and effective in assessing flood-induced agricultural damages. The combination of remote sensing products and geographic information systems along with the current development in web mapping, users now can get near real-time flood monitoring and crop damage assessments, albeit dependent upon the quality of available data. A case study to quantify the impact of the 2011 Missouri Mississippi River flooding on the surrounding cornfield was performed through a regression model. The model was trained using historical daily NDVI and corn yield across Nebraska and Missouri, and the overall accuracy in estimating corn yield was about 90%. The method implemented in this localized case study could be extended at a larger geographical scale.

Flood monitoring↗

LandScan HD: a high-resolution gridded ambient population methodology for the world

Unwarned population distributions accounting for routine human activities are needed to address many global human security challenges, including disasters, conflict, and infrastructure demand. LandScan High Definition (LSHD) supports this need through gridded ambient population estimates that measure average human presence between daytime and nighttime at a high spatial resolution of 3 arcseconds (approximately 90 m). Although LSHD has traditionally been produced on a country-specific basis, advances in global foundational data and computational resources now enable scaling its methodology to the world. Combining aspects of top-down and bottom-up gridded population methods, LSHD allocates subnational population totals from authoritative statistics to built-up areas based on occupancy estimates for multiple facility types (e.g., residential, commercial) and then reaggregates these estimates to a global population grid. We scale this approach by organizing the LSHD data stack into a 1° resolution tileset of vector analytic features, enabling an efficient and repeatable workflow for all countries worldwide. Examining the Philippines as an output of the global LSHD baseline dataset, we contrast unwarned and residential (WorldPop) population distributions by (1) exploring a practical application of flood risk assessment and (2) evaluating their congruence with outcomes of collective human activities (subnational CO 2 emissions). Finally, we discuss plans to address current LSHD limitations through data/modeling and uncertainty quantification improvements and provide outlook for workflow automation and extending the model to social, demographic and economic population characteristics.

Building morphology↗

Site-specific field management adaptation is key to feeding the world in the 21st century

Rapid climate change and growing population threaten global food security across the globe. Several studies have proposed early planting, increased irrigation, and increased fertilizer applications as climate adaptation strategies, yet none have considered combined and site-specific field management strategies as a comprehensive solution. Here, we analyzed non-irrigated wheat yield responses to climate change and field management adaptation using a mechanistic crop model evaluated against observed global non-irrigated wheat-yield over 3-year intervals spanning 13 years at 3749 sites (RMSE = 36 gC m -2 ). Early planting with later-maturing varieties provided the most benefit to future yields among the proposed field management adaptation strategies. Improved water use efficiency from increased CO 2 led to relatively low benefits of additional irrigation. Here we estimated that spatially heterogeneous adaption strategies had the potential to improve global wheat yields by 91% by 2100 compared to the present day. The yield improvements from combined field adaptation strategies were larger than the sum of improvements from the individual strategies. These synergistic benefits were shown to result from complementary processes regulating nutrient and water uptake, physiological tolerance to heat stress, and internal carbon and nutrient cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Uncertainty of Crop Yield Projections Is Reduced by Improved Temperature Response Functions

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for is greater than 50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 C to 33 C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Wang, Enli↗

The Impact of Cultural Values and Organizational Processes on Nuclear Security Operations

Human performance is a pivotal factor in the design, testing, maintenance, and operation of security systems. The effectiveness of these systems relies not only on the capabilities, limitations, motives, and attitudes of the individuals involved, but also on the quality of training, instructional content, and evaluation methods provided. To uphold security standards, seamless integration between technologies and operators necessitates reliable human input. In security operations, human errors, often attributed to blame, sanctions, low motivation, individual accountability, or complacency, are primary causes of system failures. Complacency, characterized by a false sense of security, reflects a lack of awareness of potential threats and is a significant contributing factor to lapses in security. Security incidents arise from various factors, many extend beyond individual control, highlighting the need for a holistic approach to human performance that integrates organizational processes and team collaboration. Historically, errors have been attributed to individual moral or cognitive failures. However, insights from Operational Experiences (OEs) suggest that organizational processes weakness and deficiencies in nuclear cultural values contribute more significantly to security failures than individual mistakes. This paper consolidates lessons learned from diverse international nuclear security cultures and aims to highlight the importance of security culture in shaping global perspectives on nuclear security. It underscores the role of cultural values in shaping nuclear security practices and enhancing the resilience of security systems in the nuclear sector.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗

An Interoperable, Agricultural Information System Based on Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Monitoring global agricultural crop conditions during the growing season and estimating potential seasonal production are critically important for market development of US. agricultural products and for global food security. The Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center Distributed Active Archive Center (GES DISC DAAC) is developing an Agricultural Information System (AIS), evolved from an existing TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS), which will operationally provide satellite remote sensing data products (e.g., rainfall) and services. The data products will include crop condition and yield prediction maps, generated from a crop growth model with satellite data inputs, in collaboration with the USDA Agricultural Research Service. The AIS will enable the remote, interoperable access to distributed data, by using the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS) and by being compliant with Open GIS Consortium standards. Users will be able to download individual files, perform interactive online analysis, as well as receive operational data flows. AIS outputs will be integrated into existing operational decision support systems for global crop monitoring, such as those of the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and the U.N. World Food Program.

Teng, William↗

How Cooperative Engagement Programs Strengthen Sequencing Capabilities for Biosurveillance and Outbreak Response

The threat of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases continues to be a challenge to public and global health security. Cooperative biological engagement programs act to build partnerships and collaborations between scientists and health professionals to strengthen capabilities in biosurveillance. Biosurveillance is the systematic process of detecting, reporting, and responding to especially dangerous pathogens and pathogens of pandemic potential before they become outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. One important tool in biosurveillance is next generation sequencing. Expensive sequencing machines, reagents, and supplies make it difficult for countries to adopt this technology. Cooperative engagement programs help by providing funding for technical assistance to strengthen sequencing capabilities. Through workshops and training, countries are able to learn sequencing and bioinformatics, and implement these tools in their biosurveillance programs. Cooperative programs have an important role in building and sustaining collaborations among institutions and countries. One of the most important pieces in fostering these collaborations is trust. Trust provides the confidence that a successful collaboration will benefit all parties involved. With sequencing, this enables the sharing of pathogen samples and sequences. Obtaining global sequencing data helps to identify unknown etiological agents, track pathogen evolution and infer transmission networks throughout the duration of a pandemic. Having sequencing technology in place for biosurveillance generates the capacity to provide real-time data to understand and respond to pandemics. We highlight the need for these programs to continue to strengthen sequencing in biosurveillance. By working together to strengthen sequencing capabilities, trust can be formed, benefitting global health in the face of biological threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Identifying geologic characteristics and operational decisions to meet global carbon sequestration goals

Geologic carbon sequestration is the process of injecting and storing CO 2 in subsurface reservoirs and is an essential technology for global environmental security (e.g., climate change mitigation) and economic security (e.g., CO 2 tax credits). To meet energy, economic, and environmental goals, society will have to identify vast volumes of high-capacity, low-cost, and viable storage reservoirs for sequestering CO 2 . In turn, this requires understanding how major geologic characteristics (such as reservoir depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, and temperature) and design and operational decisions (such as injection well spacing) impact CO 2 injection rates, storage capacity, and economics. Although many numerical simulation tools exist, they cannot repeat the required thousands or millions of simulations to identify ideal reservoir properties and the sensitivity and interaction between geologic parameters and operational decisions. Here, we use SCO 2 T—a fast-running, reduced-order modeling framework—to explore the sensitivity of major geologic parameters and operational decisions to engineering (CO 2 injection rates, plume dimensions, and storage capacities and effectiveness) and costs. Our results show, for the first time, benefits and impacts such as allowing CO 2 plumes to overlap, how different well spacing patterns affect CO 2 sequestration, the effects on costs of including brine treatment and disposal, and the effect of restricting injection rates to 1 MtCO 2 per y based on well limitations. We reveal multiple novel and unintuitive findings including: (i) deeper reservoirs have reduced carbon sequestration costs until injection rates reach 1 MtCO 2 per y, at which point deeper reservoirs become more expensive, (ii) thicker formations allow for increased injection rates and storage capacity, but thickness barely impacts plume areas, (iii) higher geothermal gradients result in reduced sequestration costs, unless brine treatment/disposal costs are included, at which point reservoirs having lower geothermal gradients are more economical because they produce less brine for each unit of injected CO 2 , and (iv) allowing plumes to overlap has a significantly positive impact of increasing storage capacities but has only a small influence on reducing sequestration costs. Altogether, our results illustrate new scientific conclusions to help identify suitable sites to inject and store CO 2 , to help understand the complex interaction between geology and resulting costs, and to help support the pursuit of meeting global sequestration targets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MaTableGPT: GPT‐Based Table Data Extractor from Materials Science Literature

Abstract Efficiently extracting data from tables in the scientific literature is pivotal for building large‐scale databases. However, the tables reported in materials science papers exist in highly diverse forms; thus, rule‐based extractions are an ineffective approach. To overcome this challenge, the study presents MaTableGPT, which is a GPT‐based table data extractor from the materials science literature. MaTableGPT features key strategies of table data representation and table splitting for better GPT comprehension and filtering hallucinated information through follow‐up questions. When applied to a vast volume of water splitting catalysis literature, MaTableGPT achieves an extraction accuracy (total F1 score) of up to 96.8%. Through comprehensive evaluations of the GPT usage cost, labeling cost, and extraction accuracy for the learning methods of zero‐shot, few‐shot, and fine‐tuning, the study presents a Pareto‐front mapping where the few‐shot learning method is found to be the most balanced solution owing to both its high extraction accuracy (total F1 score >95%) and low cost (GPT usage cost of 5.97 US dollars and labeling cost of 10 I/O paired examples). The statistical analyses conducted on the database generated by MaTableGPT revealed valuable insights into the distribution of the overpotential and elemental utilization across the reported catalysts in the water splitting literature.

Yi, Gyeong Hoon [Computational Science Research Ce↗

XERICO as a target for engineering stress-resilient crops: Mechanisms, applications, and future directions

XERICO's capacity to enhance ABA-driven stress responses across diverse crops, its regulatory crosstalk with other hormonal pathways, and its compatibility with advanced genetic engineering tools highlight its central role in sustainable agriculture. Leveraging XERICO in crop improvement programs aligns with the urgent need to mitigate the impacts of climate-induced stress in agriculture, offering a pathway toward resilient and high-yielding crops. Here, by enabling crops to withstand drought and other environmental stresses, XERICO-based biotechnological approaches hold transformative potential for global food security and environmental sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Choreographing root architecture and rhizosphere interactions through synthetic biology

Abstract Climate change is driving extreme changes to the environment, posing substantial threats to global food security and bioenergy. Given the direct role of plant roots in mediating plant-environment interactions, engineering the form and function of root systems and their associated microbiota may mitigate these effects. Synthetic genetic circuits have enabled sophisticated control of gene expression in microbial systems for years and a surge of advances has heralded the extension of this approach to multicellular plant species. Targeting these tools to affect root structure, exudation, and microbe activity on root surfaces provide multiple strategies for the advancement of climate-ready crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Disentangling plant- and environment-mediated drivers of active rhizosphere bacterial community dynamics during short-term drought

Abstract Mitigating the effects of climate stress on crops is important for global food security. The microbiome associated with plant roots, the rhizobiome, can harbor beneficial microbes that alleviate stress, but the factors influencing their recruitment are unclear. We conducted a greenhouse experiment using field soil with a legacy of growing switchgrass and common bean to investigate the impact of short-term drought severity on the recruitment of active bacterial rhizobiome members. We applied 16S rRNA and 16S rRNA gene sequencing for both crops and metabolite profiling for switchgrass. We included planted and unplanted conditions to distinguish environment- versus plant-mediated rhizobiome drivers. Differences in community structure were observed between crops and between drought and watered and planted and unplanted treatments within crops. Despite crop-specific communities, drought rhizobiome dynamics were similar across the two crops. The presence of a plant more strongly explained the rhizobiome variation in bean (17%) than in switchgrass (3%), with a small effect of plant mediation during drought observed only for the bean rhizobiome. The switchgrass rhizobiome was stable despite changes in rhizosphere metabolite profiles between planted and unplanted treatments. We conclude that rhizobiome responses to short-term drought are crop-specific, with possible decoupling of plant exudation from rhizobiome responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Genomic mechanisms of climate adaptation in polyploid bioenergy switchgrass

Long-term climate change and periodic environmental extremes threaten food and fuel security and global crop productivity. Although molecular and adaptive breeding strategies can buffer the effects of climatic stress and improve crop resilience, these approaches require sufficient knowledge of the genes that underlie productivity and adaptation—knowledge that has been limited to a small number of well-studied model systems. Here we present the assembly and annotation of the large and complex genome of the polyploid bioenergy crop switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ). Analysis of biomass and survival among 732 resequenced genotypes, which were grown across 10 common gardens that span 1,800 km of latitude, jointly revealed extensive genomic evidence of climate adaptation. Climate–gene–biomass associations were abundant but varied considerably among deeply diverged gene pools. Furthermore, we found that gene flow accelerated climate adaptation during the postglacial colonization of northern habitats through introgression of alleles from a pre-adapted northern gene pool. The polyploid nature of switchgrass also enhanced adaptive potential through the fractionation of gene function, as there was an increased level of heritable genetic diversity on the nondominant subgenome. In addition to investigating patterns of climate adaptation, the genome resources and gene–trait associations developed here provide breeders with the necessary tools to increase switchgrass yield for the sustainable production of bioenergy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

CO 2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Perspectives on improving photosynthesis to increase crop yield

Abstract Improving photosynthesis, the fundamental process by which plants convert light energy into chemical energy, is a key area of research with great potential for enhancing sustainable agricultural productivity and addressing global food security challenges. This perspective delves into the latest advancements and approaches aimed at optimizing photosynthetic efficiency. Our discussion encompasses the entire process, beginning with light harvesting and its regulation and progressing through the bottleneck of electron transfer. We then delve into the carbon reactions of photosynthesis, focusing on strategies targeting the enzymes of the Calvin–Benson–Bassham (CBB) cycle. Additionally, we explore methods to increase carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration near the Rubisco, the enzyme responsible for the first step of CBB cycle, drawing inspiration from various photosynthetic organisms, and conclude this section by examining ways to enhance CO2 delivery into leaves. Moving beyond individual processes, we discuss two approaches to identifying key targets for photosynthesis improvement: systems modeling and the study of natural variation. Finally, we revisit some of the strategies mentioned above to provide a holistic view of the improvements, analyzing their impact on nitrogen use efficiency and on canopy photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗