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NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Analysis and forecast intercomparisons using the FGGE SOP-1 data base

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) data base has provided the research community with the most complete global coverage of meteorological informaiton since measurements were first taken. It is important to understand the characteristics of the FGGE data base in terms of its accuracy and representativeness compared to the true state of the atmosphere. The uncertainty associated with the initial conditions used in a numerical model plays a significant role in subsequent error growth as shown by predictability theory. The ultimate limit of forecast skill is directly related to the initial uncertainty. The accuracy of analyses using FGGE data base coupled with the errors due to modeling imperfections determines the present skill of numerical models. An estimte of initial uncertainty is determined by examining differences in several FGGE analyses. The estimate is then used to determine an ultimate limit of forecast skill from derived predictability error growth rates. Several different calculations of predictability error growth are also compared. Finally, present-day forecast skill using FGGE analyses is contrasted to the estimates of ultimate skill, and the partition of model error versus initial uncertainty is discussed.

Baumhefner, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling Dust Mineralogical Composition: Sensitivity to Soil Mineralogy Atlases and Their Expected Climate Impacts

Soil dust aerosols are a key component of the climate system, as they interact with short- and long-wave radiation, alter cloud formation processes, affect atmospheric chemistry and play a role in biogeochemical cycles by providing nutrient inputs such as iron and phosphorus. The influence of dust on these processes depends on its physicochemical properties, which, far from being homogeneous, are shaped by its regionally varying mineral composition. The relative amount of minerals in dust depends on the source region and shows a large geographical variability. However, many state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs), upon which climate analyses and projections rely, still consider dust mineralogy to be invariant. The explicit representation of minerals in ESMs is more hindered by our limited knowledge of the global soil composition along with the resulting size-resolved airborne mineralogy than by computational constraints. In this work we introduce an explicit mineralogy representation within the state-of-the-art Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry (MONARCH) model. We review and compare two existing soil mineralogy datasets, which remain a source of uncertainty for dust mineralogy modeling and provide an evaluation of multiannual simulations against available mineralogy observations. Soil mineralogy datasets are based on measurements performed after wet sieving, which breaks the aggregates found in the parent soil. Our model predicts the emitted particle size distribution (PSD) in terms of its constituent minerals based on brittle fragmentation theory (BFT), which reconstructs the emitted mineral aggregates destroyed by wet sieving. Our simulations broadly reproduce the most abundant mineral fractions independently of the soil composition data used. Feldspars and calcite are highly sensitive to the soil mineralogy map, mainly due to the different assumptions made in each soil dataset to extrapolate a handful of soil measurements to arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. For the least abundant or more difficult-to-determine minerals, such as iron oxides, uncertainties in soil mineralogy yield differences in annual mean aerosol mass fractions of up to ∼ 100 %. Although BFT restores coarse aggregates including phyllosilicates that usually break during soil analysis, we still identify an overestimation of coarse quartz mass fractions (above 2 µm in diameter). In a dedicated experiment, we estimate the fraction of dust with undetermined composition as given by a soil map, which makes up ∼ 10 % of the emitted dust mass at the global scale and can be regionally larger. Changes in the underlying soil mineralogy impact our estimates of climate-relevant variables, particularly affecting the regional variability of the single-scattering albedo at solar wavelengths or the total iron deposited over oceans. All in all, this assessment represents a baseline for future model experiments including new mineralogical maps constrained by high-quality spaceborne hyperspectral measurements, such as those arising from the NASA Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission.

Soil dust↗
NASA NTRS2019

Generating Accurate and Consistent Top-Of-Atmosphere Reflectance Products from the New Generation Geostationary Satellite Sensors

GeoNEX is a collaborative project by scientists from NASA, NOAA, JAXA, and other organizations around the world with the purpose of generating a suite of Earth-monitoring products using data streams from the latest geostationary (GEO) sensors including the GOES-16/17 ABI and the Himawari-8/9 AHI. An accurate and consistent top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance product, in particular the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF), is the starting point in the scientific processing chain. We describe the main considerations and corresponding algorithms in generating the GeoNEX TOA BRF product. First, a special advantage of geostationary data streams is their high temporal resolution (~10 minutes per full-disk scan), providing a key source of information for many downstream products. To fully utilize this high temporal frequency demands a high georegistration accuracy for every acquired image. Our analysis shows that there can be substantial georegistration uncertainties in both GOES and Himawari L1b data which we addressed by implementing a phase-based correction algorithm to remove residual errors. Second, geostationary sensors have distinct illumination-view geometry features in that the solar angle changes for every pixel. Therefore, to accurately derive a BRF requires a solar position algorithm and the estimation of the pixel-wise acquisition time within an uncertainty of 10 seconds. Third, we discuss the measures we adopted to check and correct residual radiometric calibration issues of individual sensors to enable time-series analysis as well as the cross calibration between different satellite sensors (including those from low-Earth orbit). Finally, we also explain the rationale for the choice of the global grid/tile system of the GeoNEX TOA BRF product.

Wang, Weile↗
NASA NTRS2000

Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosol

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the third year of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this one-year grant consisted in analysis and publication of field studies using a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180 deg backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Analyzed data consisted of measurements made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with target in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator.

Charlson, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Optical interferometers for tests of relativistic gravity in space

A space-based astrometric interferometer with a large optical bandwidth is considered. POINTS (Precision Optical INTerferometry in Space) would measure the angular separation of two stars separated by about 90 deg on the sky with a nominal measurement error of 5 microarcseconds (mas). For a pair of mag 10 stars, the observation would require about 10 minutes. It is estimated that the instrument would measure daily the separation of two stars for each of about 60 pairs of stars; a random sequence of such measurements, if suitably redundant, contains the closure information necessary to detect and correct time dependent measurement biases to well below the nominal measurement accuracy. The 90 deg target separation permits absolute parallax measurements in all directions. A redundant observing schedule for 300 stars and 5 quasars would provide extra redundancy to compensate for the quasars' higher magnitude. If a nominal 30-day observation sequence were repeated 4 times per year for 10 years, stellar parameter uncertainties would be obtained of: 0.6 mas, position; 0.4 mas/y, proper motion; and 0.4 mas, parallax. This set of well-observed stars and quasars would form a rigid frame and the stars would serve as reference objects for measurements of all additional targets, as well as being targets of direct scientific interest. The instrument global data analysis since objectives are considered including a relativity test and technology.

Reasenberg, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Doppler Global Velocimeter Development for the Large Wind Tunnels at Ames Research Center

Development of an optical, laser-based flow-field measurement technique for large wind tunnels is described. The technique uses laser sheet illumination and charged coupled device detectors to rapidly measure flow-field velocity distributions over large planar regions of the flow. Sample measurements are presented that illustrate the capability of the technique. An analysis of measurement uncertainty, which focuses on the random component of uncertainty, shows that precision uncertainty is not dependent on the measured velocity magnitude. For a single-image measurement, the analysis predicts a precision uncertainty of +/-5 m/s. When multiple images are averaged, this uncertainty is shown to decrease. For an average of 100 images, for example, the analysis shows that a precision uncertainty of +/-0.5 m/s can be expected. Sample applications show that vectors aligned with an orthogonal coordinate system are difficult to measure directly. An algebraic transformation is presented which converts measured vectors to the desired orthogonal components. Uncertainty propagation is then used to show how the uncertainty propagates from the direct measurements to the orthogonal components. For a typical forward-scatter viewing geometry, the propagation analysis predicts precision uncertainties of +/-4, +/-7, and +/-6 m/s, respectively, for the U, V, and W components at 68% confidence.

Reinath, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Gravity Field, Orientation, and Ephemeris of Mercury from MESSENGER Observations After Three Years in Orbit

We have analyzed three years of radio tracking data from the MESSENGER spacecraft in orbit around Mercury and determined the gravity field, planetary orientation, and ephemeris of the innermost planet. With improvements in spatial coverage, force modeling, and data weighting, we refined an earlier global gravity field both in quality and resolution, and we present here a spherical harmonic solution to degree and order 50. In this field, termed HgM005, uncertainties in low-degree coefficients are reduced by an order of magnitude relative to the earlier global field, and we obtained a preliminary value of the tidal Love number k(sub 2) of 0.451+/-0.014. We also estimated Mercury's pole position, and we obtained an obliquity value of 2.06 +/- 0.16 arcmin, in good agreement with analysis of Earth-based radar observations. From our updated rotation period (58.646146 +/- 0.000011 days) and Mercury ephemeris, we verified experimentally the planet's 3: 2 spin-orbit resonance to greater accuracy than previously possible. We present a detailed analysis of the HgM005 covariance matrix, and we describe some near-circular frozen orbits around Mercury that could be advantageous for future exploration.

MESSENGER↗
NASA NTRS2001

Validation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieval Over Land

Aerosol optical depths are derived operationally for the first time over land in the visible wavelengths by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard the EOSTerra spacecraft. More than 300 Sun photometer data points from more than 30 AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) sites globally were used in validating the aerosol optical depths obtained during July - September 2000. Excellent agreement is found with retrieval errors within (Delta)tau=+/- 0.05 +/- 0.20 tau, as predicted, over (partially) vegetated surfaces, consistent with pre-launch theoretical analysis and aircraft field experiments. In coastal and semi-arid regions larger errors are caused predominantly by the uncertainty in evaluating the surface reflectance. The excellent fit was achieved despite the ongoing improvements in instrument characterization and calibration. This results show that MODIS-derived aerosol optical depths can be used quantitatively in many applications with cautions for residual clouds, snow/ice, and water contamination.

Chu, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Thermal Infrared Dust Optical Depth and Coarse-Mode Effective Diameter Over Oceans Retrieved From Collocated MODIS and CALIOP Observations

In this study, we developed a novel algorithm based on the collocated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal infrared (TIR) observations and dust vertical profiles from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) to simultaneously retrieve dust aerosol optical depth at 10 µm (DAOD10μm) and the coarse-mode dust effective diameter (Deff) over global oceans. The accuracy of the Deff retrieval is assessed by comparing the dust lognormal volume particle size distribution (PSD) corresponding to retrieved Deff with the in-situ measured dust PSDs from the AER-D, SAMUM-2 and SALTRACE field campaigns through case studies. The new DAOD10μm retrievals were evaluated first through comparisons with the collocated DAOD10.6μm retrieved from the combined Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR) and CALIOP observations from our previous study (Zheng et al. 2022). The pixel-to-pixel comparison of the two DAOD retrievals indicates a good agreement (R~0.7) and a significant reduction of (~50%) retrieval uncertainties largely thanks to the better constraint on dust size. In a climatological comparison, the seasonal and regional (5°×2°) mean DAOD10um retrievals based on our combined MODIS and CALIOP method are in good agreement with the two independent Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) products over three dust transport regions (i.e., North Atlantic (NA; R = 0.9), Indian Ocean (IO; R = 0.8) and North Pacific (NP; R = 0.7)). Using the new retrievals from 2013 to 2017, we performed a climatological analysis of coarse mode dust Deff over global oceans. We found that dust Deff over IO and NP are up to 20% smaller than that over NA. Over NA in summer, we found a ~50% reduction of the number of retrievals with Deff > 5 μm from 15°W to 35°W and a stable trend of Deff average at 4.4 μm from 35°W throughout the Caribbean Sea (90°W). Over NP in spring, only ~5% of retrieved pixels with Deff > 5 μm are found from 150°E to 180°, while the mean Deff remains stable at 4.0 μm throughout eastern NP. To our best knowledge, this study is the first to retrieve both DAOD and coarse-mode dust particle size over global oceans for multiple years. This retrieval dataset provides insightful information for evaluating dust long-wave radiative effects and coarse mode dust particle size in models.

dust optical depth↗
NASA NTRS1999

Two-Channel Satellite Retrievals of Aerosol Properties: An Overview

In order to reduce current uncertainties in the evaluation of the direct and indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on climate on the global scale, it has been suggested to apply multi-channel retrieval algorithms to the full period of existing satellite data. This talk will outline the methodology of interpreting two-channel satellite radiance data over the ocean and describe a detailed analysis of the sensitivity of retrieved aerosol parameters to the assumptions made in different retrieval algorithms. We will specifically address the calibration and cloud screening issues, consider the suitability of existing satellite data sets to detecting short- and long-term regional and global changes, compare preliminary results obtained by several research groups, and discuss the prospects of creating an advanced retroactive climatology of aerosol optical thickness and size over the oceans.

Mishchenko, Michael I.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Information Theoretic Evaluation of Satellite Soil Moisture Retrievals

Microwave radiometry has a long legacy of providing estimates of remotely sensed near surfacesoil moisture measurements over continental and global scales. A consistent assessment of theerrors and uncertainties associated with these retrievals is important for their effective utilization in modeling, data assimilation and end-use application environments. This article presents an evaluationof soil moisture retrieval products from AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS, AMSR2 and SMAPinstruments using information theory-based metrics. These metrics rely on time series analysis ofsoil moisture retrievals for estimating the measurement error, level of randomness (entropy) andregularity (complexity) of the data. The results of the study indicate that the measurement errors inthe remote sensing retrievals are significantly larger than that of the ground soil moisture measurements.The SMAP retrievals, on the other hand, were found to have reduced errors (comparable to Preprint submitted to Remote Sensing of Environment October 1, 2017those of in-situ datasets), particularly over areas with moderate vegetation. The SMAP retrievals also demonstrate high information content relative to other retrieval products, with higher levelsof complexity and reduced entropy. Finally, a joint evaluation of the entropy and complexity ofremotely sensed soil moisture products indicates that the information content of the AMSR-E, ASCAT,SMOS and AMSR2 retrievals is low, whereas SMAP retrievals show better performance. The use of information theoretic assessments is effective in quantifying the required levels of improvements needed in the remote sensing soil moisture retrievals to enhance their utility and information content.

Information theory↗
NASA NTRS1978

Polar wander analysis from paleomagnetic data

Utilizing marine magnetic anomalies and paleomagnetic pole positions, paleogeographic maps were constructed for three time intervals back to the Early Cretaceous. From the maps lithospheric plate motions were calculated and these global displacement fields were analyzed to determine best-fitting rigid rotations, which then could be ascribed to true polar wander. The values so obtained are no larger than a few degrees and are within the magnitude of the uncertainties involved.

Vandervoo, R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

On the procedure for deriving ozone variations from satellite observations

It is noted that for the years 1970-1972 global ozone may be calculated by using extrapolated values for polar night regions and then deriving direct daily averages. After 1972, regions larger than the polar night often lack data, increasing the error of extrapolation. It is shown that problems of this type can be overcome by using zonal averages, calculating the annual wave through harmonic analysis, and subtracting the annual wave so derived. Linear fits can then be employed to obtain long-term zonal changes and yearly zonal averages. Global results can be derived in the form of an area-weighted average of the zonal results. It is pointed out that no values need be assumed for ozone when data are lacking. The uncertainty from this procedure is estimated at + or - 0.4% of the yearly average. However, other uncertainties in the backscatter ultraviolet experiment may be larger.

Schlesinger, B. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Modeling of the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Atmosphere System

This grant covered the transition period between the ISTP/GGS main mission MAMI work (NAGW5-1097) to the extended mission of GGS/SolaxMax. During this period we concentrated on the following subjects: (1) Ionospheric modeling and in particular the coupling of the ionosphere and the magnetosphere require knowledge of the ionospheric conductances. We have an algorithm to derive these conductances from POLAR UVI or POLAR VIS images. The image analysis requires carefully calibrated measurements, separation of auroral brightness from scattered solar EUV and emissions caused by photoelectrons, and modeling of the auroral conditions, Under this grant we evaluated the various sources of uncertainty that contribute to the conductance calculation by comparing different model approaches and we conducted sensitivity studies. A joint modeling effort between our ionospheric models and a global MHD magnetospheric model with S. Slinker and J. Fedder lead to improved parameterizations for the MHD model. The predictions of that new model were validated using data from ground based instruments, POLAR UVI images, and DMSP satellites. These findings were presented at the GEM meeting in Snowmass, and at the Huntsville modeling workshop in Guntersville. A manuscript for publication is in preparation. A study to evaluate the thermospheric effects of large substorms and storms was con- ducted with the TIE-GCM model. Of particular interest are compositional changes of the thermosphere in the southern hemisphere. Southern hemisphere effects are stronger than those on the northern hemisphere because of the larger offset of the magnetic dipole from the rotational axis. These results were presented at the Huntsville modeling workshop in Guntersville.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS Temperature Profiles using the NCEP GFS

We have previously conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using AIRS Version-5 quality controlled temperature profiles as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The data assimilation and forecast system we used was the Goddard Earth Observing System Model , Version-5 (GEOS-5) Data Assimilation System (DAS), which represents a combination of the NASA GEOS-5 forecast model with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Grid Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) global analysis scheme. All analyses and forecasts were run at a 0.5deg x 0.625deg spatial resolution. Data assimilation experiments were conducted in four different seasons, each in a different year. Three different sets of data assimilation experiments were run during each time period: Control; AIRS T(p); and AIRS Radiance. In the "Control" analysis, all the data used operationally by NCEP was assimilated, but no AIRS data was assimilated. Radiances from the Aqua AMSU-A instrument were also assimilated operationally by NCEP and are included in the "Control". The AIRS Radiance assimilation adds AIRS observed radiance observations for a select set of channels to the data set being assimilated, as done operationally by NCEP. In the AIRS T(p) assimilation, all information used in the Control was assimilated as well as Quality Controlled AIRS Version-5 temperature profiles, i.e., AIRS T(p) information was substituted for AIRS radiance information. The AIRS Version-5 temperature profiles were presented to the GSI analysis as rawinsonde profiles, assimilated down to a case-by-case appropriate pressure level p(sub best) determined using the Quality Control procedure. Version-5 also determines case-by-case, level-by-level error estimates of the temperature profiles, which were used as the uncertainty of each temperature measurement. These experiments using GEOS-5 have shown that forecasts resulting from analyses using the AIRS T(p) assimilation system were superior to those from the Radiance assimilation system, both with regard to global 7 day forecast skill and also the ability to predict storm tracks and intensity.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2001

Challenges Facing Design and Analysis Tools

The design and analysis of future aerospace systems will strongly rely on advanced engineering analysis tools used in combination with risk mitigation procedures. The implications of such a trend place increased demands on these tools to assess off-nominal conditions, residual strength, damage propagation, and extreme loading conditions in order to understand and quantify these effects as they affect mission success. Advances in computer hardware such as CPU processing speed, memory, secondary storage, and visualization provide significant resources for the engineer to exploit in engineering design. The challenges facing design and analysis tools fall into three primary areas. The first area involves mechanics needs such as constitutive modeling, contact and penetration simulation, crack growth prediction, damage initiation and progression prediction, transient dynamics and deployment simulations, and solution algorithms. The second area involves computational needs such as fast, robust solvers, adaptivity for model and solution strategies, control processes for concurrent, distributed computing for uncertainty assessments, and immersive technology. Traditional finite element codes still require fast direct solvers which when coupled to current CPU power enables new insight as a result of high-fidelity modeling. The third area involves decision making by the analyst. This area involves the integration and interrogation of vast amounts of information - some global in character while local details are critical and often drive the design. The proposed presentation will describe and illustrate these areas using composite structures, energy-absorbing structures, and inflatable space structures. While certain engineering approximations within the finite element model may be adequate for global response prediction, they generally are inadequate in a design setting or when local response prediction is critical. Pitfalls to be avoided and trends for emerging analysis tools will be described.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗