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At least 127 records · Page 7

Enhancing Multi-Step Reservoir Inflow Forecasting: A Time-Variant Encoder–Decoder Approach

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-variant encoder–decoder (ED) model designed specifically to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting, enabling accurate predictions of reservoir inflows up to seven days ahead. Unlike conventional ED-LSTM and recursive ED-LSTM models, which use fixed encoder parameters or recursively propagate predictions, our model incorporates an adaptive encoder structure that dynamically adjusts to evolving conditions at each forecast horizon. Additionally, we introduce the Expected Baseline Integrated Gradients (EB-IGs) method for variable importance analysis, enhancing interpretability of inflow by incorporating multiple baselines to capture a broader range of hydrometeorological conditions. The proposed methods are demonstrated at several diverse reservoirs across the United States. Our results show that they outperform traditional methods, particularly at longer lead times, while also offering insights into the key drivers of inflow forecasting. These advancements contribute to enhanced reservoir management through improved forecasting accuracy and practical decision-making insights under complex hydroclimatic conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Effect of Laser Scan Strategy on Distortion and Residual Stresses of Arches Made With Selective Laser Melting

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is developing Additive Manufacturing (AM) - both in-space AM for on-demand parts, tools, or structures, and on-earth AM for rapid, reduced-cost, small volume production of complex space-flight hardware. Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is an on-earth AM technology that MSFC is using to build Alloy 718 rocket engine components. An understanding of the SLM-718 material properties is required to design, build, and qualify these components for space flight. Residual stresses and are of particular interest for this AM process, since SLM is a series of approximately 100 micron-wide welds, where highly non-linear heating and cooling, severe thermal gradients and repeated thermal cycling can result in high residual stresses within the component. These stresses may cause degraded material properties, and warp or distort the geometry of the SLM component. The distortions can render the component out-of-tolerance when inspected, and even interrupt or halt the build process if the warped material prevents the SLM machine from operating properly. The component must be scrapped and re-designed, which is time consuming and costly. If residual stresses are better understood, and can be predicted, these effects can be mitigated early in the component's design. the compressive residual stresses in the z-direction were highest in the chess sample, followed by island then continuous. This may be due to the binding nature of the segments

Bagg, Stacey D.↗

Reevaluating Suitability Estimates Based on Dynamics of Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001 2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0-2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC)without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.

Morton, Douglas C.↗

Boundary-Layer Separation Control under Low-Pressure Turbine Airfoil Conditions using Glow-Discharge Plasma Actuators

Modem low-pressure turbines, in general, utilize highly loaded airfoils in an effort to improve efficiency and to lower the number of airfoils needed. Typically, the airfoil boundary layers are turbulent and fully attached at takeoff conditions, whereas a substantial fraction of the boundary layers on the airfoils may be transitional at cruise conditions due to the change of density with altitude. The strong adverse pressure gradients on the suction side of these airfoils can lead to boundary-layer separation at the latter low Reynolds number conditions. Large separation bubbles, particularly those which fail to reattach, cause a significant degradation of engine efficiency. A component efficiency drop of the order 2% may occur between takeoff and cruise conditions for large commercial transport engines and could be as large as 7% for smaller engines at higher altitude. An efficient means of of separation elimination/reduction is, therefore, crucial to improved turbine design. Because the large change in the Reynolds number from takeoff to cruise leads to a distinct change in the airfoil flow physics, a separation control strategy intended for cruise conditions will need to be carefully constructed so as to incur minimum impact/penalty at takeoff. A complicating factor, but also a potential advantage in the quest for an efficient strategy, is the intricate interplay between separation and transition for the situation at hand. Volino gives a comprehensive discussion of several recent studies on transition and separation under low-pressure-turbine conditions, among them one in the present facility. Transition may begin before or after separation, depending on the Reynolds number and other flow conditions. If the transition occurs early in the boundary layer then separation may be reduced or completely eliminated. Transition in the shear layer of a separation bubble can lead to rapid reattachment. This suggests using control mechanisms to trigger and enhance early transition. Gad-el-Hak provides a review of various techniques for flow control in general and Volino discusses recent studies on separation control under low-pressure-turbine conditions utilizing passive as well as active devices. As pointed out by Volino, passive devices optimized for separation control at low Reynolds numbers tend to increase losses at high Reynolds numbers, Active devices have the attractive feature that they can be utilized only in operational regimes where they are needed and when turned off would not affect the flow. The focus in the present paper is an experimental Separation is induced on a flat plate installed in a closed-circuit wind tunnel by a shaped insert on the opposite wall. The flow conditions represent flow over the suction surface of a modem low-pressure-turbine airfoil ('Pak-B'). The Reynolds number, based on wetted plate length and nominal exit velocity, is varied from 50,000 to 300,000, covering cruise to takeoff conditions. Low (0.2%) and high (2.5%) Gee-stream turbulence intensities are set using passive grids. A spanwise-oriented phased-plasma-array actuator, fabricated on a printed circuit board, is surface- flush-mounted upstream of the separation point and can provide forcing in a wide frequency range. Static surface pressure measurements and hot-wire anemometry of the base and controlled flows are performed and indicate that the glow-discharge plasma actuator is an effective device for separation control. of active separation control using glow discharge plasma actuators.

Hultgren, Lennart S.↗

Adaptive Model-Free Vehicle Path-Tracking via Fast-Converging Prescribed-Time Newton-Based Extremum-Seeking Control

Model-free control (MFC) offers a simple and effective approach to automated vehicle path-tracking without requiring an explicit plant model for control law design. However, gain tuning in MFC is typically carried out through trial-and-error, which can be time-consuming and may lead to suboptimal performance. To address this limitation, extremum-seeking-based adaptive MFC has shown promise by enabling real-time adaptation of control gains, without relying on a predefined vehicle model. Nonetheless, existing ESC approaches often suffer from slow convergence. This paper integrates MFC, employing longitudinal and lateral ultra-local models of a rear-wheel-drive vehicle, with a novel prescribed-time (PT) Newton-based extremum-seeking control (ESC) strategy that ensures rapid convergence of control gains within the prescribed time. Unlike conventional gradient-based ESC methods, the PT Newton-based ESC leverages artificial delays and time-periodic gains, not only to guarantee convergence within the specified time, but also to compensate for feedback delays. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves gain adaptation speed and tracking accuracy. This work advances adaptive model-free vehicle control by offering a high-performance, delay-resilient alternative to existing ESCMFC frameworks.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗

Generalised Primal-Dual Grids for Unstructured Co-Volume Schemes

The generation of high-quality staggered unstructured grids is considered, leading to the development of a new optimisation-based strategy designed to construct weighted 'Regular-Power' tessellations appropriate for co-volume type numerical discretisation techniques. This new framework aims to extend the conventional Delaunay-Voronoi primal-dual structure; seeking to assemble generalised orthogonal tessellations with enhanced geometric quality. The construction of these grids is motivated by the desire to improve the performance and accuracy of numerical methods based on unstructured co-volume type schemes, including various staggered grid techniques for the simulation of fluid dynamics and hyperbolic transport. In this study, a new hybrid optimisation strategy is proposed; seeking to optimise the geometry, topology and weights associated with general, two-dimensional Regular-Power tessellations using a combination of gradient-ascent and energy-based techniques. The performance of this new method is tested experimentally, with a range of complex, multi-resolution primal-dual grids generated for various coastal and regional ocean modelling applications.

power diagrams↗

Experiments in Neural-Network Control of a Free-Flying Space Robot

Four important generic issues are identified and addressed in some depth in this thesis as part of the development of an adaptive neural network based control system for an experimental free flying space robot prototype. The first issue concerns the importance of true system level design of the control system. A new hybrid strategy is developed here, in depth, for the beneficial integration of neural networks into the total control system. A second important issue in neural network control concerns incorporating a priori knowledge into the neural network. In many applications, it is possible to get a reasonably accurate controller using conventional means. If this prior information is used purposefully to provide a starting point for the optimizing capabilities of the neural network, it can provide much faster initial learning. In a step towards addressing this issue, a new generic Fully Connected Architecture (FCA) is developed for use with backpropagation. A third issue is that neural networks are commonly trained using a gradient based optimization method such as backpropagation; but many real world systems have Discrete Valued Functions (DVFs) that do not permit gradient based optimization. One example is the on-off thrusters that are common on spacecraft. A new technique is developed here that now extends backpropagation learning for use with DVFs. The fourth issue is that the speed of adaptation is often a limiting factor in the implementation of a neural network control system. This issue has been strongly resolved in the research by drawing on the above new contributions.

NEURAL NETS↗

Low-Earth Orbit Trajectory Optimization in the Presence of Atmospheric Uncertainty

The previous 20 to 25 years have seen a tremendous increase in space exploration, and with that an increase in the level of logistics planning needed to ensure mission success. For spacecraft that are designed to be periodically re-supplied, a key logistics consumable is propellant, as it constitutes the greatest up-mass on re-supply vehicles. A trajectory design strategy is therefore desired that minimizes propellant usage in order to ease the demand for propellant re-supply missions. This thesis develops such a strategy in three stages, and uses the International Space Station (ISS) as its testbed, as no other LEO spacecraft is more challenging from a space logistics standpoint. First, the ISS trajectory planning problem is formulated as a constrained burn optimization problem assuming a deterministic atmosphere. The cost function is total ∆v, with constraints imposed on longitude of ascending viii node (LAN) and semi-major axis (SMA) altitude. Analytic derivatives are constructed for both the cost and constraints, which are necessary given the 6-week to 2-year time frames being considered. A gradient-based optimizer is then utilized to find locally-optimal solutions to real-world ISS trajectory planning problems. Second, atmospheric uncertainty is addressed by constructing a probabilistic model of space weather data using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Bayesian inference is performed using the GP model to generate mean and covariance estimates for space weather predictions, whose pedigree is assessed against test data. The predictions are then mapped into atmospheric density via the analytic Jacchia-Roberts density model, and the effect of space weather uncertainty on orbital lifetime is examined. Third, an ISS burn execution uncertainty model is developed. This model, along with the space weather uncertainty model, are deployed in a linear covariance analysis to ascertain their combined effect on LAN and SMA altitude dispersions. The deterministic constraints from the original problem are re-formulated as stochastic constraints, where now the constraint uncertainty interval is required to fall within specified bounds. An updated optimization framework is constructed using the original ∆v cost function along with the stochastic constraints to solve the trajectory optimization problem under atmospheric uncertainty. Finally, the complete architecture is summarized for deployment in an operational setting.

Trajectory Optimization↗

Developing ductile and isotropic Ti alloy with tailored composition for laser powder bed fusion

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is an advanced technology to create metallic components with complex geometry. Ti-6Al-4V (Ti64) is one of the most frequently used materials for LPBF. The intrinsic high cooling rates and ultra-high directional thermal gradient of melt, however, lead to a hierarchical structure composed of fine martensitic alpha' within columnar prior-beta grains in LPBF Ti64. This microstructure results in poor ductility and strong mechanical anisotropy in as-built Ti64 components, which largely limit their applications. Here, we report that the above shortcomings can be overcome by tailoring the alloy composition. Specifically, by reducing the aluminum content from 6 wt% to 4 wt%, the resultant LPBF Ti-4Al-4V (Ti44) alloy exhibits substantially improved ductility and mechanical isotropy. These improvements are attributed to grain refinement during solidification and the activation of multiple slip modes and twinning in the as-built material during deformation. This work offers a simple strategy to design new titanium alloys for LPBF with significantly improved ductility and isotropy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermal dissipation sensors enter a new age: Navigating frontiers in transpiration and hydrologic function

Thermal dissipation (TD) sensors have been used extensively for a wide array of sap flow applications, and yet recently several limitations of this approach have been identified, including a tendency to underestimate absolute flows, especially in small stems with very high flows. However, when used properly, the TD method remains the most cost effective and reliable approach for determining relative flows in comparison studies. Major advantages of this method include the ability to replicate maximally within trees, across trees of different sizes, and across multiple species to capture the full range of natural variation in the study system. From early studies, such variation has been deemed a major challenge for representing stand-level dynamics. In a series of recent comparison studies, we determined mean sap flux density dynamics within and among groups of trees. These studies were conducted within temperate coniferous forest (n=46), temperate oak savanna (n=36), temperate pine forest (n=49), temperate bottomland hardwood forest (n=23), tropical premontane rainforest (n=43), semiarid subtropical shrubland (n=25), and tropical dry forest (n=15), with a total of 237 sensors. Two study sites were also equipped with eddy covariance systems for determination of stand-level evapotranspiration. Sites subject to high background thermal gradients used the transient thermal dissipation method. Comparisons varied between studies but tended to focus on relative flow differences between species, between wetter and drier microsites, between understory and overstory components, or between wetter and drier periods of the growing season. Except for the shrubland sites, study trees tended to be at least 15-cm diameter and frequently exceeded 50-cm diameter. Results of this cross-site comparison highlight the inherent variation in natural stands and the importance of using large sample sizes. The TD approach remains a valuable and preferred method for the future determination of water use in trees. However, sensor replication can fundamentally impact a study's outcomes and should be more carefully considered in study design. Customized error mitigation strategies are best to address the sources of variation most problematic for a particular study. In conclusion, the development of “smart” calibration approaches that correct for fundamental effects of radial variation inherent in thermal dissipation studies is discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗

Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) comes with a wide range of possible design choices, such as the location and timing of the injection. Different stratospheric aerosol injection strategies can yield different climate responses; therefore, understanding the range of possible climate outcomes is crucial to making informed future decisions on SAI, along with the consideration of other factors. Yet, to date, there has been no systematic exploration of a broad range of SAI strategies. This limits the ability to determine which effects are robust across different strategies and which depend on specific injection choices. This study systematically explores how the choice of SAI strategy affects climate responses in one climate model. Here, we introduce four hemispherically symmetric injection strategies, all of which are designed to maintain the same global mean surface temperature: an annual injection at the Equator (EQ), an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 15° N and 15° S (15N+15S), an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 30° N and 30° S (30N+30S), and a polar injection strategy that injects equal amounts of SO 2 at 60° N and 60° S only during spring in each hemisphere (60N+60S). We compare these four hemispherically symmetric SAI strategies with a more complex injection strategy that injects different quantities of SO 2 at 30° N, 15° N, 15° S, and 30° S in order to maintain not only the global mean surface temperature but also its large-scale horizontal gradients. All five strategies are simulated using version 2 of the Community Earth System Model with the middle atmosphere version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate model, version 6, as the atmospheric component, CESM2(WACCM6-MA), with the global warming scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5. We find that the choice of SAI strategy affects the spatial distribution of aerosol optical depths, injection efficiency, and various surface climate responses. In addition, injecting in the subtropics produces more global cooling per unit injection, with the EQ and the 60N+60S cases requiring, respectively, 59 % and 50 % more injection than the 30N+30S case to meet the same global mean temperature target. Injecting at higher latitudes results in larger Equator-to-pole temperature gradients. While all five strategies restore Arctic September sea ice, the high-latitude injection strategy is more effective due to the SAI-induced cooling occurring preferentially at higher latitudes. These results suggest trade-offs wherein different strategies appear better or worse, depending on which metrics are deemed important.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven Optimal Control Strategy for Virtual Synchronous Generator via Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach

This paper aims at developing a data-driven optimal control strategy for virtual synchronous generator (VSG) in the scenario where no expert knowledge or requirement for system model is available. Firstly, the optimal and adaptive control problem for VSG is transformed into a reinforcement learning task. Specifically, the control variables, i.e., virtual inertia and damping factor, are defined as the actions. Meanwhile, the active power output, angular frequency and its derivative are considered as the observations. Moreover, the reward mechanism is designed based on three preset characteristic functions to quantify the control targets: (1) maintaining the deviation of angular frequency within special limits; (2) preserving well-damped oscillations for both the angular frequency and active power output; (3) obtaining slow frequency drop in the transient process. Next, to maximize the cumulative rewards, a decentralized deep policy gradient algorithm, which features model-free and faster convergence, is developed and employed to find the optimal control policy. With this effort, a data-driven adaptive VSG controller can be obtained. By using the proposed controller, the inverter-based distributed generator can adaptively adjust its control variables based on current observations to fulfill the expected targets in model-free fashion. Finally, simulation results validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Neural Active Manifolds: Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction for Uncertainty Quantification

We present a new approach for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, specifically designed for computationally expensive mathematical models. We leverage autoencoders to discover a one-dimensional neural active manifold (NeurAM) capturing the model output variability, through the aid of a simultaneously learnt surrogate model with inputs on this manifold. Our method only relies on model evaluations and does not require the knowledge of gradients. The proposed dimensionality reduction framework can then be applied to assist outer loop many-query tasks in scientific computing, like sensitivity analysis and multifidelity uncertainty propagation. In particular, we prove, both theoretically under idealized conditions, and numerically in challenging test cases, how NeurAM can be used to obtain multifidelity sampling estimators with reduced variance by sampling the models on the discovered low-dimensional and shared manifold among models. Several numerical examples illustrate the main features of the proposed dimensionality reduction strategy and highlight its advantages with respect to existing approaches in the literature.

Autoencoders↗

Direct Functionalization of Established 3D-Printed Aza-Michael Liquid Crystal Elastomers with Donor–Acceptor Stenhouse Adducts

Extrusion 3D printing has advanced the manufacturing of complex liquid crystal elastomer (LCE) architectures. In parallel, donor–acceptor Stenhouse adducts (DASAs), a class of white-light-responsive photoswitches, have enabled both photochemical and photothermal LCE actuation. However, DASA–LCEs have yet to be extruded and 3D-printed. Two key challenges exist: DASA’s inherent sensitivity to heat and radicals can lead to degradation during ink preparation and printing, and small changes in the concentration of the added DASA component impact the properties of the extrudable ink, requiring reoptimization of well-established 3D-printing protocols. To overcome these challenges, we present a post-printing functionalization strategy that circumvents these limitations. Residual secondary amines, inherent to inks synthesized via standard aza-Michael addition, serve as active sites for covalent attachment of DASA photoresponsive groups following printing and cross-linking. Our method means that DASAs can be directly grafted onto 3D-printed aza-Michael LCEs without modifying the ink formulation or processing. The resulting DASA–LCEs exhibit wavelength tunability within the visible range and a variety of photothermal and photochemical responses. The post-functionalization can occur within 2 min and enables spatial control of the DASA concentration, producing films with tunable color gradients and locally varied photothermal and photochemical responses under visible light. In conclusion, this approach enables the rapid fabrication of DASA-based light-responsive LCEs using established ink formulations with the potential for the design of complex 3D architectures.

3D printing↗

Nonlinear Thermal Analyses of a Liquid Hydrogen Tank Wall

A thermal evaluation of a composite tank wall design for a liquid hydrogen tank was performed in the present study. The primary focus of the current effort was to perform one-dimensional, temperature nonlinear, transient thermal analyses to determine the through-the-thickness temperature profiles. These profiles were used to identify critical points within the flight envelope that could have detrimental effects on the adhesive bondlines used in the construction of the tank wall. Additionally, this paper presents the finite element models, analysis strategies, and thermal analysis results that were determined for several vehicle flight conditions. The basic tank wall configuration used to perform the thermal analyses consisted of carbon-epoxy facesheets and a Korex honeycomb core sandwich that was insulated with an Airex cryogenic foam and an Alumina Enhanced Thermal Barrier (AETB-12). Nonlinear, transient thermal analyses were conducted using the ABAQUS finite element code. Tank wall models at a windward side location on the fuel tank were analyzed for three basic flight conditions: cold-soak (ground-hold), ascent, and re-entry. Additionally, three ambient temperature boundary conditions were applied to the tank wall for the cold-soak condition, which simulated the launch pad cooldown process. Time-dependent heating rates were used in the analyses of the ascent and reentry segments of the flight history along with temperature dependent material properties. The steady-state through-the-thickness temperature profile from the cold-soak condition was used as the initial condition for the ascent analyses. Results from the nonlinear thermal analyses demonstrated very good correlation with results from similar models evaluated by Northrop- Grumman using a different analysis tool. Wall through-the-thickness temperature gradients as a function of flight time were obtained for future incorporation into a full-scale thermostructural analysis to evaluate the adhesive bondlines. As a result of the thermal analyses conducted, a sufficient level of confidence was demonstrated in the thermal modeling and analysis capabilities of ABAQUS to warrant future use as a thermo-structural analysis tool to evaluate cryogenic tank wall designs.

Smeltzer, Stanley S., III↗