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At least 127 records · Page 7

Early Mars Climate Modeling and the Faint Young Sun Paradox.

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. Liquid water is not stable on its surface. There are no lakes, seas, or oceans, and precipitation falls as snowfall. Yet early in its history during the Noachian epoch, there is geological and mineralogical evidence that liquid water from rainfall flowed on its surface creating drainage systems, lakes, and - possibly - seas and oceans. More recent observations by Curiosity in Gale crater hint that such conditions may have persited into the Hesperian. The implication is that early Mars had a wamer climate than it does today as a result of a thicker atmosphere with a more powerful greenhouse effect capable of producing an active hydrological cycle with rainfall, runoff, and evaporation. Since Mariner 9 began accumulating such evidence, researchers have been trying to understand what kind of a climate system could have created greenhouse conditions favorable for liquid water. Unfortunately, the problem is not yet solved.

greenhouse gases↗

Thermal structure and relaxation rates of the perturbed atmosphere - A study with a photochemical radiative convective model

A radiative-photochemical model is developed to evaluate the temperature distribution in the earth's atmosphere between the ground and 70 km. The model takes into account the interaction between photochemistry and temperature. Results are reported for a number of experiments performed with this model to assess the climatic effects of varying the ozone distribution and the ozone overburden. An evaluation of the relaxation rates of both ozone and temperature is also reported. In particular, the importance of the ozone distribution with respect to the greenhouse effect is further investigated.

Alimandi, G.↗

Was early Mars warmed by ammonia?

Runoff channels and valley networks present on ancient, heavily cratered Martian terrain suggests that the climate of Mars was originally warm and wet. One explanation for the formation of these channels is that the surface was warmed by the greenhouse effect of a dense, CO2 atmosphere. However, recent work shows that this theory is not consistent for the early period of the solar system. One way to increase the surface temperature predicted is to assume that other greenhouse gases were present in Mars' atmosphere in addition to CO2 and H2O. This possible gas is ammonia, NH3. If ammonia was present in sufficient quantities, it could have raised the surface temperature to 273 K. An adequate source would have been volcanic outgassing if the NH3 produced was shielded from photolysis by an ultraviolet light absorber.

Kasting, J. F.↗

Mars: The First Billion Years - Warm and Wet vs Cold and Icy?

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. Liquid water is not stable on its surface. There are no lakes, seas, or oceans, and rain falls nowhere at no time during the year. Yet early in its history during the Noachian epoch, there is geological and mineralogical evidence that liquid water did indeed flow on its surface creating drainage systems, lakes, and possibly, seas and oceans. The implication is that early Mars had a different climate than it does today, one that was based on a thicker atmosphere with a more powerful greenhouse effect that was capable of producing an active hydrological cycle with rainfall, runoff, and evaporation. Since Mariner 9 began accumulating such evidence, researchers have been trying to understand what kind of a climate system could have created greenhouse conditions favorable for liquid water. Unfortunately, the problem is not yet solved.

Cold Early Mars↗

Observations of seasonal variations in atmospheric greenhouse trapping and its enhancement at high sea surface temperature

Greenhouse trapping is examined theoretically using a version of the radiative transfer equations that demonstrates how atmospheric greenhouse trapping can vary. Satellite observations of atmospheric greenhouse trapping are examined for four months representing the various seasons. The cause of the super greenhouse effect at the highest SSTs is examined, and four processes are found to contribute. The middle and upper troposphere must be particularly moist and the temperature lapse rate must be increasingly unstable over the warmest regions to explain the observed distribution of atmospheric greenhouse trapping. Since the highest SSTs are generally associated with deep convection, this suggests that deep convection acts to moisten the middle and upper troposphere in regions of the highest SSTs relative to other regions. The tropical atmospheric circulation acts to both increase the temperature lapse rate and greatly increase the atmospheric water vapor concentration with spatially increasing SST.

Hallberg, Robert↗

Radiative forcing perturbation due to observed increases in tropospheric ozone at Hohenpeissenberg

The effect on surface temperature due to changes in atmospheric O3 depends highly on the latitude where the change occurs. Previous sensitivity calculations indicate that ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are more effective in causing surface temperature change (Wang et al., 1980). Long term ground-based observations show that tropospheric ozone, especially at the tropopause region, has been increasing at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NATO, 1988; Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, 1992). These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect and increase the radiative forcing to the troposphere-surface system, which is opposite to the negative radiative forcing calculated from the observed stratospheric ozone depletion recently reported in WMO (1992). We used more than two thousands regularly measured ozonesondes providing reliable vertical O3 distribution at Hohenpeissenberg (47N; 11E) for the 1967-1990 to study the instantaneous solar and longwave radiative forcing the two decades 1971-1990 and compare the forcing with those caused by increasing CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs. Calculations are also made to compare the O3 radiative forcing between stratospheric depletion and tropospheric increase. Results indicate that the O3 changes will induce a positive radiative forcing dominated by tropospheric O3 increase and the magnitude of the forcing is comparable to that due to CO2 increases during the two decades. The significant implications of the tropospheric O3 increase to the global climate are discussed.

Wang, Wei-Chyung↗

Mass extinction caused by large bolide impacts

A history and development status assessment is presented for the hypothesis that the great extinction of living species 65 million years ago, at the boundary between the Tertiary and Cretaceous geological ages, was due to the collision of a meteoroid, asteroid, or comet with the earth. The initial, deeply suggestive indication of the extraterrestial origin of the extinction-initiating mechanism was the detection of an exceptionally high concentration of iridium at the stratigraphic position of the extinction. Detailed computer modeling of the atmospheric effect of such a bolide impact has shown that the earth would have first grown intensely cold during a period of darkness due to particulate debris clouds in the upper atmosphere, followed by an enormous increase in global temperatures as the debris cleared, created by the persistence of greenhouse-effect gases; this heating would have been especially lethal to numerous forms of life.

Alvarez, Luis W.↗

Theoretical studies of spectroscopic problems of importance for atmospheric radiation measurements

Many of the instruments used to deduce the physical parameters of the Earth's atmosphere necessary for climate studies or for pollution monitoring (for instance, temperature versus pressure or number densities of trace molecules) rely on the existence of accurate spectroscopic data and an understanding of the physical processes responsible for the absorption or emission of radiation. During the summer, research was either continued or begun on three distinct problems: (1) an improved theoretical framework for the calculation of the far-wing absorption of allowed spectral lines; (2) a refinement of the calculation of the collision-induced fundamental spectrum of N2; and (3) an investigation of possible line-mixing effects in the fundamental spectrum of CH4. Progress in these three areas is summarized below. During the past few years, we have developed a theoretical framework for the calculation of the absorption of radiation by the far wings of spectral lines. Such absorption due to water vapor plays a crucial role in the greenhouse effect as well as limiting the retrieval of temperature profiles from satellite data. Several improvements in the theory have been made and the results are being prepared for publication. Last year we published results for the theoretical calculation of the absorption of radiation due to the dipoles induced during binary collisions of N2 molecules using independently measured molecular parameters; the results were in reasonable agreement with experimental data. However, recent measurements have revealed new fine structure that has been attributed to line-mixing effects. We do not think that this is correct, rather that the structure results from short-range anisotropic dipoles. We are in the process of including this refinement in our theoretical calculation in order to compare with the new experimental data. Subtle changes in the spectra of CH4 measured by researchers at Langley have also been attributed to line-mixing effects. By analyzing the same spectral lines we have attempted to verify or rule out possible line-mixing mechanisms. Due to the complexity and richness of the spectrum of this highly symmetric molecule, as well as the small magnitude of the effects, a detailed first-principle calculation of the mixing is a difficult problem. Before such a program is undertaken it is important to glean as much information as possible concerning the possible mechanisms by a systematic analysis of the existing data.

Tipping, Richard H.↗

Lidar Studies of Extinction in Clouds in the ECLIPS Project

The Experimental Cloud Lidar Pilot Study (ECLIPS) project has now had two active phases in 1989 and 1991. A number of laboratories around the world have taken part in the study. The observations have yielded new data on cloud height and structure, and have yielded some useful new information on the retrieval of cloud optical properties, together with the uncertainties involved. Clouds have a major impact on the climate of the earth. They have the effect of reducing the mean surface temperature from 30 C for a cloudless planet to a value of about 15 C for present cloud conditions. However, it is not at all certain how clouds would react to a change in the planetary temperature in the event of climate change due to a radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. Clouds both reflect out sunlight (negative feedback) and enhance the greenhouse effect (positive feedback), but the ultimate sign of cloud feedback is unknown. Because of these uncertainties, campaigns to study clouds intensely were initiated. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology (ISCPP) and the FIRE Campaigns (cirrus and stratocumulus) are examples. The ECLIPS was set up similarly to the above experiments to obtain information specifically on cloud base, but also cloud top (where possible), optical properties, and cloud structure. ECLIPS was designed to allow as many laboratories as possible globally to take part to get the largest range of clouds. It involves observations with elastic backscatter lidar, supported by infrared fluxes at the ground and radiosonde data, as basic instrumentation. More complex experiments using beam filter radiometers, solar pyranometers, and satellite data and often associated with other campaigns were also encouraged to join ECLIPS. Two periods for observation were chosen, Sep. - Dec. 1989 and Apr. - Jul. 1992 into which investigators were requested to fit 30 days of observations. These would be either continuous, or arranged to coincide with NOAA satellite overpasses to obtain AVHRR data. The distribution of the ECLIPS international effort as in 1991 is shown. The main gaps in the global distribution are in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere.

Martin, C.↗

A reduced atmosphere for early Mars?

One-dimensional, radiative-convective climate calculations indicate that the old model of a warm, dense, CO2 atmosphere on early Mars is no longer viable. The magnitude of the greenhouse effect in a CO2/H2O atmosphere is limited by condensation of CO2 clouds; this phenomenon is not important for Mars today, but has a pronounced cooling effect at the low solar luminosities thought to apply during early solar system history. The failure of this model indicates one of four things: (1) the new climate calculations are incorrect; (2) current solar evolution models are incorrect; (3) the idea that early Mars was warm and wet is incorrect; or (4) the atmosphere of early Mars contained other greenhouse gases (or particles) in addition to CO2 and H2O. Of these explanations, the most plausible is number (4) and the rest of the investigation is a further explanation of number (4).

Kasting, J. F.↗

Landsat at 45: How it Changed the Way We See the Earth

On October 24, 1946, more than 10 years before the launch of the first artificial satellite Sputnik, scientists at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico placed a camera on top of a captured German V-2 ballistic missile. As the rocket flew to an altitude of about 65 miles - just above the generally recognized border of outer space - the 35-millimeter motion picture camera snapped a frame every one and a half seconds. Minutes later, the missile came crashing back down and slammed into the ground at more than 340 mph, but the film survived and gave us our first glimpse of Earth from space. Earth Resources Technology Satellite aka Landsat It was images like those first grainy black and white pictures and later those taken by America's first astronauts in the 1960's that inspired the development of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS). From the unique vantage point of space, we could now observe Earth using a variety of different instruments to monitor changes over time. The ERTS-1 satellite, wisely renamed Landsat-1, was launched aboard a Delta rocket on July 23, 1972, into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit at an altitude of about 560 miles. In this unique orbit, Landsat could observe the same point on the Earth every 18 days, always with the same solar illumination, allowing for precise monitoring of changes on the ground over time. Landsat-1, derived from the highly successful Nimbus weather satellites, carried two instruments that allowed it to take images not only in visible light but also in infrared, well-suited to track changes in vegetation over time. Designed to last only one year, Landsat-1 actually operated for nearly three years, by which time it had been joined in space by Landsat-2, a near identical copy of the original. Since then, ever more sophisticated instruments were flown aboard Landsat-3 through -8, with Landsat-9 planned for launch in 2020, acquiring millions of images of Earth over more than four decades. At first, images from Landsat were processed by NASA and hardcopies sold to users for a fee, a somewhat tedious process. Since 2008, images have been made available to all interested users by the US Geological Survey (USGS) at no cost via the Internet in near real time. So, how can Landsat help? In short, Landsat looks. And looks. And proves Yogi right. Space-based images from Landsat and other similar satellites offer a unique and critical capability to observe land use over time by providing repetitive observations of the Earth otherwise unavailable. The data provided by the images can be used by scientists and politicians to inform wise decisions in areas such as agriculture, climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, forest management, human health, fire, natural disasters, urban growth and water management. This overview article doesn't allow for examples from each of these disciplines, but details can be found at the following website: https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/how_landsat_helps/. One third of the US economy is influenced by climate, weather and natural hazards, providing strong economic incentives to sustain a healthy space-based Earth observation program. One example, however, may be illustrative of how Landsat and other space-based observations can be helpful in monitoring and documenting some effects of global climate change. It had been noted since the 1970's that permafrost in subarctic areas like Siberia was melting at an accelerating rate. It also became apparent that this led to the formation of hundreds of melt lakes and the liberation of large quantities of methane, a gas that in the short-term has more potent greenhouse effects than carbon dioxide. The methane turned the water in these lakes blue, making them easy to track over time by satellite. Additionally, the newly released methane has been carbon dated to tens of thousands of years ago, meaning that it had remained frozen since the last Ice Age and therefore hadn't been accounted for in models of the Earth's overall carbon balance. Release of sufficient methane by an increasingly warming climate could actually cause a positive feedback loop in global warming, melting more permafrost and releasing yet more methane. Further monitoring by Landsat and other platforms will reveal whether this process is reversible or whether we've passed the tipping point. In addition to the highly successful Landsat series of satellites, NASA and other agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operate a fleet of other Earth observing platforms, many with more specific research goals such as monitoring sea ice levels or atmospheric carbon content. Several instruments aboard the International Space Station also contribute to this overall effort to better understand short- and long-term changes to the Earth. Many of these missions are guided by the 2009 Decadal Survey published by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences. Europe, Russia and China all see the value of space-based Earth observation by deploying their own fleet of satellites.

Uri, John↗

Additional Aviation Sustainability Strategies

Emissions from the aviation sector are expected to grow significantly in the next few decades due to growing demand for aviation. The U.S. fleet size has increased significantly in the past 20 years, growing from 2,132 aircraft to 5,485 aircraft. Similarly from 1990 to 2019, aviation emissions more than doubled, growing faster than any other transportation mode. These emissions include carbon dioxide (CO2), as well as non-CO2 sources including nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), water (H2O), and particulate matter (soot). However, this report focuses specifically on CO2 emissions because the impacts from CO2 are well-understood and long-lived. There are also many climate goals tied to CO2 emissions, including the US Aviation Climate Action Plan which is pushing for net-zero in 2050. CO2 is a greenhouse, or heat-trapping, gas that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, from wildfires, and natural processes like volcanoes. Greenhouse gases absorb heat radiating from the Earth’s surface and release it in all directions, including back toward Earth’s surface. By adding more CO2 to the atmosphere, humans amplify the natural greenhouse effect, causing global temperature to rise. Since the onset of industrial times in 1750, human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50%. Considering this challenge, the United States has set a climate goal to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions in the U.S. aviation sector by 2050 to reduce the environmental impact of aviation. Net-zero emissions refers to the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CO2, methane or SO2, that are removed from the atmosphere being equal to those emitted by human activity. This contrasts with carbon-neutrality, which refers to no net release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, especially through offsetting emissions, that could be accomplished through a series of actions. As of 2022, the goal of net-zero has been adopted by much of the aviation industry including multiple airlines and countries. To reach net-zero by 2050, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are identified as the technology that could provide the greatest impact within this timeframe. However, certain challenges may limit the production and/or adoption of SAFs in the marketplace, such as competition for feedstocks, production capacity, and high cost. In this case, SAFs would be insufficient to meet the net-zero CO2 emission goals. Therefore, in addition to SAFs, other strategies will be needed to close the gap on emissions produced as a result of SAF shortfalls or to enhance the impact of SAFs on reducing emissions. NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) aims to examine these additional pathways to explore how its research may best contribute to the realization of net-zero emissions by 2050. Specifically, this effort considers strategies that can reduce emissions in the aviation sector in combination with the use of SAFs and carbon offsets while still meeting projected passenger demand. The strategies considered are not only feasible but also could be operationally scalable by 2050. The goal of this report is to investigate additional strategies such as alternative flight and ground operations, providing insight into the CO2 emission reduction potential and feasibility of strategy implementation by 2050.

Carbon Emissions↗

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b II. Possible Climates and Observability

Radial velocity monitoring has found the signature of a M sin i = 1.3 M(sub ⨁) planet located within the habitable zone (HZ) of Proxima Centauri. Despite a hotter past and an active host star, the planet Proxima b could have retained enough volatiles to sustain surface habitability. Here we use a 3D Global Climate Model (GCM) to simulate the atmosphere and water cycle of Proxima b for its two likely rotation modes (1:1 and 3:2 spin-orbit resonances), while varying the unconstrained surface water inventory and atmospheric greenhouse effect. Any low-obliquity, low-eccentricity planet within the HZ of its star should be in one of the climate regimes discussed here. We find that a broad range of atmospheric compositions allow surface liquid water. On a tidally locked planet with sufficient surface water inventory, liquid water is always present, at least in the substellar region. With a non-synchronous rotation, this requires a minimum greenhouse warming (~10 mbar of CO2 and 1 bar of N2). If the planet is dryer, ~0.5 bar or 1.5 bars of CO2 (for asynchronous or synchronous rotation, respectively) suffice to prevent the trapping of any arbitrary, small water inventory into polar or nightside ice caps. We produce reflection and emission spectra and phase curves for the simulated climates. We find that atmospheric characterization will be possible via direct imaging with forthcoming large telescopes. The angular separation of 7 λ/D at 1 μm (with the E-ELT) and a contrast of ~10(exp -7) will enable high-resolution spectroscopy and the search for molecular signatures, including H2O, O2, and CO2. The observation of thermal phase curves can be attempted with the James Webb Space Telescope, thanks to a contrast of 2 × 10(exp -5) at 10 μm. Proxima b will also be an exceptional target for future IR interferometers. Within a decade it will be possible to image Proxima b and possibly determine whether the surface of this exoplanet is habitable.

Proxima Cen↗

A model for the evolution of CO2 on Mars

We have constructed a model that predicts the evolution of CO2 on Mars from the end of the heavy bombardment period to the present. The model draws on published estimates of the main processes believed to affect the fate of CO2 during this period: chemical weathering, regolith uptake, polar cap formation, and atmospheric escape. Except for escape, the rate at which these processes act is controlled by surface temperatures which we calculate using a modified version of the Gierasch and Toon energy balance model. The modifications account for the change in solar luminosity with time, the greenhouse effect, and a polar and equatorial energy budget. Using published estimates for the main parameters, we find no evolutionary scenario in which CO2 is capable of producing a warm (global mean temperatures greater than 250 K) and wet (surface pressures greater than 30 mbar) early climate, and then evolves to present conditions with approximately 7 mbar in the atmosphere, less than 300 mbar in the regolith, and less than 5 mbar in the caps. Such scenarios would only exist if the early sun were brighter than standard solar models suggest, if greenhouse gases other than CO2 were present in the early atmosphere, or if the polar albedo were significantly lower than 0.75. However, these scenarios generally require the storage of large amounts of CO2 (greater than 1 bar) in the carbonate reservoir. If the warm and wet early Mars constraint is relaxed, then we find best overall agreement with present day reservoirs for initial CO2 inventories of 0.5-1.0 bar. We also find that the polar caps can have a profound effect on how the system evolves. If the initial amount of CO2 is less than some critical value, then there is not enough heating of the poles to prevent permanent caps from forming. Once formed, these caps control how the system evolves, because they set the surface pressure and, hence, the thermal environment. If the initial amount of CO2 is greater than this critical value, then caps do not form initially, but can form later on, when weathering and escape lower the surface pressure to a point at which polar heating is no longer sufficient to prevent cap formation and the collapse of the climate system. Our modeling suggests this critical initial amount of CO2 is between 1 and 2 bar, but its true value will depend on all factors affecting the polar heat budget.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

Liquid water on Mars - An energy balance climate model for CO2/H2O atmospheres

A simple climatic model is developed for a Mars atmosphere containing CO2 and sufficient liquid water to account for the observed hydrologic surface features by the existence of a CO2/H2O greenhouse effect. A latitude-resolved climate model originally devised for terrestrial climate studies is applied to Martian conditions, with the difference between absorbed solar flux and emitted long-wave flux to space per unit area attributed to the divergence of the meridional heat flux and the poleward heat flux assumed to equal the atmospheric eddy heat flux. The global mean energy balance is calculated as a function of atmospheric pressure to assess the CO2/H2O greenhouse liquid water hypothesis, and some latitude-resolved cases are examined in detail in order to clarify the role of atmospheric transport and temperature-albedo feedback. It is shown that the combined CO2/H2O greenhouse at plausible early surface pressures may account for climates hot enough to support a hydrological cycle and running water at present-day insolation and visible albedo levels.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

Cirrus clouds and climate feedback: Is the sky falling and should we go tell the king

It is widely believed that thin cirrus clouds act to enhance the greenhouse effect owing to a particular combination of their optical properties. It is demonstrated how this effect is perhaps based on inadequate resolution of the physics of cirrus clouds and that the more likely impact of cirrus clouds to climate change remains somewhat elusive. These conclusions are developed within the context of a specific feedback mechanism incorporated into a simple mechanistic climate model. A specific scientific question addressed is whether or not the observed relationship between the ice water content and temperature of cirrus provides any significant feedback to the CO2 greenhouse warming. A related question also examined concerns the specific role of cloud microphysics and radiation in this feedback. This raises several pertinent issues about the understanding of cirrus clouds and their likely role in climate change as there presently exists a considerable uncertainty about the microphysics of these clouds (size and shape of ice crystals) and their radiative influences.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗

Perturbation of the zonal radiation balance by a stratospheric aerosol layer

The effect of stratospheric aerosols on the earth's monthly zonal radiation balance is investigated using a model layer consisting of 75% H2SO4, the primary constituent of the background aerosol layer. The reduction in solar energy absorbed by the earth-atmosphere system is determined through the albedo sensitivity, and the optically thin approximation is used in conjunction with the Henyey-Greenstein phase function for scattering. An infrared radiative transfer model is used to estimate the increased greenhouse effect from the aerosol layer, and the infrared heating compensates for the albedo effect in altering the radiation balance. The results indicate that the dominant influence of the thin model stratospheric aerosol layer is an increased reflection of solar energy all over the globe except for the polar-winter region, but the change in the radiation balance is uniform and small equatorward of 50 deg.

Harshvardhan, MR.↗

The 1-mm brightness temperature of Titan

Titan has been observed with the 5-m Hale telescope at an effective wavelength of 1 mm. Adopting a value of 2700 km for the radius of Titan, a brightness temperature of 86 + or - 12 K is found at 1 mm. By a comparison of the results with previous measurements at longer wavelengths, it is concluded that the satellite surface is the source of the 1-mm radiation. Since the measured brightness temperature is close to the equilibrium temperature of a blackbody at the distance of Saturn, it is believed there is no significant greenhouse effect on Titan.

Roellig, T. L.↗