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Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch
A significant difficulty associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DC optimal power flow problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.
Novel Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Interface Method for Grid-Forming Inverter Systems
Power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulations of grid-forming (GFM) inverter systems facilitate the testing of drastic scenarios, such as on-grid to off-grid transitions and islanded microgrid operations without a stiff grid. To the authors’ best knowledge, most studies in the literature focus on PHIL simulations for grid-following inverter systems. Only a few studies focus on GFM inverters, and those are challenging and problematic, especially for high-power applications. This article proposes a novel PHIL simulation platform that enables interfacing high-power GFM inverter systems. The paper proposes the concept of a virtual GFM inverter as a part of the proposed PHIL interface. This addition of a virtual GFM inverter in the PHIL interface expands the conventional ideal transformer model (ITM) method and enables it to overcome the issues of instability of existing ITM methods. In the validation stage, a PHIL experiment is conducted on a three-phase, 480-V, 125-kVA GFM inverter system with the proposed interfacing method. The results corroborate that the proposed PHIL simulation method performs well and is stable for GFM inverter systems.
Assessment of the Electrical Substation-Grid Testbed with Inside/Outside Devices and Distributed Ledger Technology
The electrical substation-grid testbed was created to integrate the GOOSE and/or DNP (Distributed Network Protocol) messages with time synchronized sources and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). The objective was to study the impact of faults and cyber-events at an electrical substation with inside (protective relays) and outside (power meters) substation devices. The electrical substation-grid testbed was based on the design of a 34.5/ 12.47 kV electrical substation (sectionalized bus configuration) with two power transformers, connected to radial power lines and load feeders. The electrical substation-grid testbed was installed at 252 lab space (Advanced Power System Protection), Grid Research Integration and Deployment Center (GRID-C), Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This testbed was created for Task 5, DarkNet project. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created to simulate fault and/or cyber events that could potentially result in damage to the electrical infrastructure. In addition, tests were run that are usually not allowed to be performed in an operational electrical power grid, because these test scenarios could trip breakers and/or generate fault situations that could potentially damage equipment. The number of tests performed in the electrical substation-grid testbed were executed in a better way than in a real electrical substation and/or power grid, because multiple tests could be run in a short period of time, and complex permits, and safety/ schedule restrictions like in a real electrical substation environment were not needed. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created using real measurement, communication, and protection devices that are used by electrical utilities, to have same conditions that we could observe in a real power grid or electrical substation. The electrical substation-grid testbed was based on using a real time simulator and expansion box with amplifiers that were wired to electrical substation-grid devices. This hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) was provided by protective relays, power meters, ethernet switches, remote terminal units, synchronized timing network clock, DLT devices, workstations, and servers. This report includes the design, installation, and assessment of the electrical substation-grid testbed that was similar to an operational electrical substation, integrating the power system protection, communication, and control systems. The results for the electrical substation-grid testbed were based on:• verifying the analog signals for protective relays and power meters, • observing the synchronized time source frame at devices, • authenticating the GOOSE (IEC 61850) and DNP messages from power meters and protective relays, and • verifying the trip conditions of protective relays at fault tests with the power system fault event detection, using DLT devices. For future work, the electrical substation-grid testbed with protective relays and power meters, using DLT and synchronized time source from DarkNet, will be used to study the impact of cyber-events at inside and outside substation devices. Advanced algorithms for detecting cyber-events produced by non-desired protective relay settings will be studied, to improve the detection and reliability of protection, control, and communication systems at power grids.
Advanced-Research-on-Integrated-Energy-Systems-Based Analysis to Support Resilient System Upgrades: Energy to Communities Energyshed In-Depth Partnership with Molokai, Hawaii
The Molokai, Hawaii, Energy to Communities (E2C) Energyshed project represents a collaborative effort between the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Shake Energy Collaborative, the Molokai Clean Energy Hui, Sustainable Molokai, and Ho'ahu Energy Cooperative Molokai to advance Molokai's Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP). Supported by Hawaiian Electric Company and the Hawaii State Energy Office, the initiative aims to develop a community-defined portfolio of renewable energy solutions that enhance energy resilience while aligning with the Hawaiian Electric Integrated Grid Plan (IGP) and Molokai's energy goals. Phase 1 focused on technical analyses and community engagement to co-design feasible energy scenarios. Challenges such as grid upgrades, storage sizing, and inverter ride-through standards were addressed to align technical and operational requirements with community preferences. The project equips Molokai with actionable data and insights to implement energy initiatives while ensuring resilient and culturally informed solutions. Future efforts aim to finalize project designs, secure interconnection agreements, and deploy energy projects that reflect community priorities and technical feasibility.
STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations
Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.
Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch
A significant difficulty associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DC optimal power flow problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.
Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch: Preprint
A significant difficultly associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DCOPF problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique on simulated dispatch operations of the RTS-GMLC over a week.
Assessment of NuScale SMR Steam Heat Augmentation for Chemical Plant Decarbonization
Nearly 50% of the total energy consumed by the industrial sector in the United States is used to produce process steam with natural gas and coal-fired boilers1 . This project conducts a technoeconomic assessment of a NuScale Small Modular Reactor (SMR) coupled with a chemical plant as an Integrated Energy System (IES) where nuclear produces steam and electric power to meet the requirements of a large chemical plant. In a 2020 study, ORNL evaluated the feasibility of using advanced SMRs, including the NuScale design, to supply energy to the Eastman Chemical Plant. However, since that report was published, NuScale received NRC approval for its uprated 77 MWe design with 56% more power and has also introduced a high-temperature, high pressure, steam heat-augmentation system, a key focus of the new study. The new study also benefits from revised capital costs, a 10-day refueling outage time, reduced plant staffing, higher capacity factors, and a site boundary Emergency Planning Zone methodology. The study consists of a techno-economic assessment of two possible energy sources (nuclear and natural gas) in a number of steam and power generation configurations (NuScale Power Modules (NPMs), boilers and combinations of both) to satisfy the steam and power demand with the most reliable and cost competitive system. A total of 2,947.3 klb/hr of steam and 72.5 MWe of electricity are required for the demonstration case. A range of scenarios and solutions are explored, from a 12-NPM plant (3,000 MWth)—with excess capacity and redundancy, capable of supplying a significant amount of extra power to the grid—to a 4-NPM (1,000 MWth) plant—supplemented with existing boilers or grid power for redundancy. The study uses historical steam and power data from a chemical plant and examines the sensitivity to natural gas and grid power cost variations. Scenarios with up to two times gas and electricity costs were considered. Profitability in a 60-year time horizon was analyzed, consistent with NuScale’s design life specification. A steady-state site integration and reliability analysis was performed, and trade-offs were identified.
Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.
Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0
Abstract. The spatial heterogeneity related to complex topography in California demands high-resolution (< 5 km) modeling, but global convection-permitting climate models are computationally too expensive to run multi-decadal simulations. We developed a 3.25 km California climate modeling framework by leveraging regional mesh refinement (CARRM) using the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s global Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) version 0. Four 5-year time periods (2015–2020, 2029–2034, 2044–2049, and 2094–2099) were simulated by nudging CARRM outside California to 1° coupled simulation of E3SMv1 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)5-8.5 future scenario. The 3.25 km grid spacing adds considerable value to the prediction of the California climate changes, including more realistic high temperatures in the Central Valley and much improved spatial distributions of precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and coastal stratocumulus. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CARRM simulation predicts widespread warming of 6–10 °C over most of California, a 38 % increase in statewide average 30 d winter–spring precipitation, a near-complete loss of the alpine snowpack, and a sharp reduction in shortwave cloud radiative forcing associated with marine stratocumulus by the end of the 21st century. We note a climatological wet precipitation bias for the CARRM and discuss possible reasons. We conclude that SCREAM RRM is a technically feasible and scientifically valid tool for climate simulations in regions of interest, providing an excellent bridge to global convection-permitting simulations.
Comparative life cycle assessment of various hydrogen pathways for cleaner methanol synthesis
This study evaluates the potential environmental impacts of e-methanol production using hydrogen from green, yellow, and blue sources, including Gas Switching Reforming for high purity hydrogen production with carbon capture (GSR-H 2 ), and compares their performance across current and renewable energy scenarios. Using a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA), the study quantifies impacts across seven TRACI categories. Global warming potential (GWP) ranged from 0.28 kg CO 2 eq/kg MeOH for green hydrogen with renewables to 2.55 kg CO 2 eq/kg MeOH for SMR-CC under grid power. Among the scenarios, renewable electrolysis achieves the lowest GWP, while GSR-H 2 under renewable power offered the best balance of emissions reductions and resource efficiency among the fossil-based routes, offering a viable transitional solution in regions dependent on natural gas infrastructure. The study reveals GSR-H 2 's potential as an alternative to conventional steam methane reforming with carbon capture (SMR-CC), showing its advantages in carbon capture efficiency and reduced life cycle emissions as well as significantly lower water consumption. GSR-H 2 , when powered by renewables, consumed only 1.41 L of water per kg MeOH, an 82% reduction compared to grid-powered electrolysis, highlighting its potential in water-scarce regions. This study is the first to evaluate GSR-H 2 as a hydrogen source for e-methanol, providing new evidence for its role as a cleaner, scalable transitional solution aligned with cleaner production principles.
Modeling and Detection of Future Cyber-Enabled DSM Data Attacks
Demand-Side Management (DSM) is an essential tool to ensure power system reliability and stability. In future smart grids, certain portions of a customer’s load usage could be under the automatic control of a cyber-enabled DSM program, which selectively schedules loads as a function of electricity prices to improve power balance and grid stability. In this scenario, the security of DSM cyberinfrastructure will be critical as advanced metering infrastructure and communication systems are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Such attacks, in the form of false data injections, can manipulate customer load profiles and cause metering chaos and energy losses in the grid. The feedback mechanism between load management on the consumer side and dynamic price schemes employed by independent system operators can further exacerbate attacks. To study how this feedback mechanism may worsen attacks in future cyber-enabled DSM programs, we propose a novel mathematical framework for (i) modeling the nonlinear relationship between load management and real-time pricing, (ii) simulating residential load data and prices, (iii) creating cyber-attacks, and (iv) detecting said attacks. In this framework, we first develop time-series forecasts to model load demand and use them as inputs to an elasticity model for the price-demand relationship in the DSM loop. This work then investigates the behavior of such a feedback loop under intentional cyber-attacks. We simulate and examine load-price data under different DSM-participation levels with three types of random additive attacks: ramp, sudden, and point attacks. We conduct two investigations for the detection of DSM attacks. The first studies a supervised learning approach, with various classification models, and the second studies the performance of parametric and nonparametric change point detectors. Results conclude that higher amounts of DSM participation can exacerbate ramp and sudden attacks leading to better detection of such attacks, especially with supervised learning classifiers. We also find that nonparametric detection outperforms parametric for smaller user pools, and random point attacks are the hardest to detect with any method.
Fish Friendly Water Rules' Impact On the Power Grid with High VRE Levels
Columbia River basin multipurpose reservoirs are operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. When conventional thermal power plants are retired, hydropower flexibility balances the wind and solar variability of the power grid and provides grid services to maximize the high renewable power absorption. On the other hand, over-reliance on hydropower could harm the river basin fish habitat. For example, water release pulses during peak electricity demand hours and shorter-term water release variation could harm the fish population. Power grid planners, environmentalists, Columbia Basin tribes, hydro regulators, and water resource planners work together to understand the impacts of Columbia River basin operation in a fish-friendly way in the current power grid and power grid with higher renewable power share. We examine different levels of renewable share in the Western Interconnection to understand the multiple weather years and future climate projection and operating scenario impact on the power grid and water system. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.
Development and Stability Analysis of Representative Future High Renewable Penetration Power Grid Models for California
The power grid in California is now experiencing a significant increase in renewable generation to achieve 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper discusses a method for developing the transient stability (TS) model of the future high renewable penetration in the power grid in California. The method consists of utilizing an existing future Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) grid model in the database and locating the conventional plants in the base model that will potentially retire in the next few years in California. Next, the dynamic models of those identified conventional plants and controls in the existing model are modified to replicate the future power generation in the California region. Different scenarios of future power grid in California are developed for various renewable penetration levels and control strategies in renewable power plants. The effect of the control strategies on the stability of the power grid under events like loss of generation are evaluated. Based on these evaluations, certain control features in power plants are identified as necessary for stability of future power grids.
Correlation Between Weather Alerts and Grid Component Failures for Grid Alert
Weather events cause most grid failures. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Recent research at Idaho National Laboratory into electric grid risk analysis methods resulted in a tool that allows for the development of the most likely scenarios given failure probabilities of grid components. INL has a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) program to develop a Grid Alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios uses MASTERRI and then notifies the utility if there is significant risk. Historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid have been compiled by utilities and organizations such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates are needed for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures are correlated with historic weather events from Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. This discusses the Grid Alert project plan but focuses on the data gathered and process used in determining failure rates for possible grid failure scenarios.
Intrusion Detection for Cybersecurity of Power Electronics Dominated Grids: Inverters PQ Set-Points Manipulation
This work provides cybersecurity analytics for a high photovoltaic (PV) penetrated distribution network, representing future power electronics dominated grid (PEDG). Firstly, the impact of active and reactive power (PQ) set-points manipulation on the network is studied. Then, an intrusion detection system (IDS) is developed for identifying the potentially compromised PV inverters in the network. The proposed IDS is based on defining the normal, safe, and abnormal operation regions of the PV inverters from point of view of the steady state voltage stability of the network. These three-operation regions are identified by utilizing active power, reactive power, and voltage (PQV) limits of each specific grid-following inverter in the network. Each grid-following inverter's PQV contour includes the information of network topology, inverter ratings, and inverter controller. The developed PQ limits are integrated into the centralized secondary control layer for realization of the proposed IDS. Furthermore, the proposed secondary control layer is capable of providing remedial actions during an anomaly event to enhance the grid resiliency. The theoretical analyses are verified by several attack scenarios for a network of grid-following inverters.
DEEP Solar: Data DrivEn Modeling and Analytics for Enhanced System Layer ImPlementation
Realizing the SETO 2030 mission of reducing solar energy costs to 3-5 c/kWh will require innovative enabling research on effective, cost-efficient integration of local PV within distribution systems. However, the intermittent and variable nature of PVs compels operators to impose conservative hosting capacity constraints. Given the extremely high variability of (intermittent and unpredictable) solar energy generation, relaxing the capacity constraints (which are currently around 15%) and achieving 100% or greater integration of renewables will require a fundamental transformation of the power grid via the utilization of exponentially larger amounts of AMI enabled fine-grained data. To address the challenges in increasing the penetration of renewable energy based DERs, this project envisions an Enhanced System Layer (ESL) at the distribution network level that is reliable, cost-effective and scalable to millions of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)/devices. This includes developing: 1) Transformative and highly scalable machine learning based predictive analytics tools that plug into distribution system planning and provide real-time situational awareness at the distribution level for short and long-term operational planning. The tools will be built using novel data-driven energy models of millions of active nodes with AMI, 2) Adaptive stochastic analysis and optimization algorithms for real-time grid operations, 3) Dynamic Scenario Analysis using parallel Cloudenabled implementations with < 1 minute computational cycle times.