LANL Accident Analysis and Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling
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Accident Analysis, Hazard Analysis, Atmospheric Di↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Unified 0.25-degree gridded infrastructure-critical extreme weather for the United States from 1979 to 2100
Extreme weather events can severely disrupt critical infrastructure, triggering cascading effects on power, transportation, and essential services. However, standard weather and climate datasets often lack specialized variables necessary for hazard assessments. We present a unified dataset of infrastructure-critical weather and climate variables across the United States at 0.25° resolution, covering daily or sub-daily intervals from 1979 to 2100. The dataset includes temperature, dew point, wind gusts, precipitation partitioned by rain, snow, and freezing rain or ice pellets, lightning, and wildfire metrics. Historical conditions (1979-2023) are synthesized from observations and reanalysis products, while future projections are derived from 14 CMIP6 global climate models (historical, SSP245, and SSP585 experiments). Physically based and data-driven methods are used to estimate variables not directly provided by existing models. By integrating these variables into a single unified dataset, we enable consistent, high-resolution assessments of weather-related infrastructure risks across past and future periods, supporting wide-ranging applications in energy, transportation, water resources, emergency management, and beyond.
Climate and Earth system modelling↗
The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort
Background: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient’s first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. Results: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04–1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896–0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887–0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. Conclusions: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.
6-minute walk test↗
DC Arc Incident Energy in Photovoltaic Systems: Methods for Evaluation
Renewable energy systems continue to be one of the fastest growing segments of the energy industry. This article focuses on the understanding of how photovoltaic (PV) technology behaves under dc arc conditions. Emphasis is placed on the electrical safety aspect of dc arc-flash incident energy (IE) evaluation. Because of the fast proliferation of PV systems and lack of formal equivalent calculation guidelines, such as IEEE 1584 for ac systems, it has been necessary to rely on different equations and models presented by various researchers over the last few years. This article discusses the behavior of PV systems under arc conditions and presents the results of the available methods to estimate the dc arc-flash IE. It provides a comparative analysis of a proposed arc-flash IE calculation method against different laboratory tests, including those performed for this article at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Detailed explanations are provided regarding the effect of the PV module current-voltage (I-V) and power-voltage (P-V) curves under arcing conditions. Examples of the application of the proposed calculation method to the test measurements are included.
arc discharges↗
Effect of feed composition on the production of off-gases during vitrification of simulated low-activity nuclear waste
During the vitrification of nuclear waste, hazardous and radioactive emissions are generated from the feed-to-glass conversion reactions, in addition to discharges from forced air bubbling and air inleakage. Although the major gaseous emissions are water vapor, nitrogen, and carbon dioxide, various monitored environmental pollutants are also released, such as nitrogen oxides or sulfur dioxide. In addition, reactions between organics and nitrates in the feed may also form products of incomplete combustion such as carbon monoxide and acetonitrile. Although off-gas emissions are commonly measured during both laboratory- and pilot-scale melter testing, no predictive tool is currently available to a priori estimate the composition of gaseous emissions during nuclear waste vitrification. This work forms a basis for the development of such predictive tool by measuring gas evolution from a broad range of simulated low-activity waste melter feeds using evolved gas analysis data and developing correlations between the feed and off-gas compositions. Using reaction stoichiometry and regression analysis, we demonstrate that next to the content of nitrogen and organic carbon in the feed, the gaseous emissions are affected by the feed reduction-oxidation conditions – the more the feed is reduced, the less nitrogen monoxide, and more carbon monoxide and acetonitrile evolves. In conclusion, the results presented in this work provide a first step towards reducing the amount of expensive physical melter testing and the regression analysis provides a simple tool for rapid optimization of feed composition with respect to off-gas composition.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Mitigating Injection‐Induced Seismicity Along Basement Faults by Extraction: Application to 2016–2018 Pohang Earthquakes
Abstract The risk of induced earthquake is considered as the major obstacle for sustainable subsurface energy activities. As a mitigation approach, mechanistic risk assessment can be essential to minimize the potential of seismic hazard. Coupled hydro‐mechanical modeling approach is integrated with geomechanical analysis to better assess the occurrence of seismicity induced by injection and/or extraction, which will provide a basis to update operational conditions (e.g., number and location of mitigating wells, rate and duration of operations) for mitigating earthquake nucleation. The Coulomb stability analysis and seismicity rate estimates from this generic study indicate that simultaneous extraction can relieve injection‐induced pore‐pressure buildup, but also transfer and accumulate elastic energy along the faults. Field‐scale simulation with variation in well design for the Pohang EGS site, South Korea, show that multiple wells aligned across a preexisting fault form gradients of pressure and stress fields normal to the fault, which can enhance the direct impact of diffusion process and poroelastic stressing on the fault stability perturbation. Our mechanistic study suggests multiphysics‐oriented mitigation strategies that consider (1) possible mechanical deformation, caused by hydro‐mechanical coupling effects, and (2) proper configuration of well operations based on site‐specific geological characteristics.
Chang, K. W.↗
Significant Rural Contributions to Severe Coastal Urban Flooding Through Flow Connectivity
Coastal cities are increasingly threatened by hurricane-induced compound flooding. However, the relative contributions of rainfall-surge interactions and other flood drivers, such as runoff from surrounding rural and local impervious areas, in shaping urban flooding remain unclear. Here, we use a multi-scale Earth system modeling framework to disentangle the contributions of diverse flooding drivers. The results show that urban flooding is primarily affected by topographic factors (low elevation, flat slopes, and localized flow constrictions), rather than increased runoff from their impervious surfaces. Importantly, runoff from rural areas contributes more to severely flooded urban areas with inundation depth exceeding 1.7 m than local runoff. Although rainfall–surge interactions and sea-level rise exacerbate inundation along the coastline, over 90% of the compounding effects are absorbed by wetlands. By resolving flooding processes across scales and components, this study emphasizes the role of runoff from surrounding rural areas in shaping zones of severe urban flooding.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Cookbook workflow: Integrating household allocation data with Air Theme hazard air pollution data
This project integrates hazardous air pollutant (HAP) model outputs with housing/population data for Southeast Texas, then generates hotspot layers and interactive web maps.
Rosenheim, Nathanael↗
Chemical-specific Parameters Dataset
The chemical-specific parameters dataset is searchable for physicochemical information for multiple chemicals simultaneously. After selecting chemicals of interest and the desired parameters, the RAIS will generate a table containing the values, chosen according to an established hierarchy. Results can be downloaded in Excel format. Over 40 parameters are available, including melting point, boiling point, density, density, vapor pressure, water solubility, and Henry’s Law constants. Thirteen primary sources are used to populate the dataset of chemical-specific parameters. These values should be used in cancer risk and noncancer hazard assessments for the calculation of preliminary remediation goals (PRGs), hazard characterization, and transport modeling. Users can select up to 1000 chemicals per query. The dataset supports environmental risk assessments, regulatory decision-making, and environmental planning with tools for benchmarking against risk-based standards. This structured approach ensures a robust evaluation of environmental risks tailored to regulatory needs.
Dolislager, Fred [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
Radionuclide-specific Parameters Dataset
The radionuclide-specific parameters dataset is searchable for radiological information for multiple isotopes simultaneously. After selecting radionuclides of interest and the desired parameters, the RAIS will generate a table containing the values, chosen according to an established hierarchy. Results can be downloaded in Excel format. 50 parameters are available, including atomic number, soil to animal transfer coefficients, plant uptake coefficients, half-life, specific activity, and water solubility. Seven primary sources are used to populate the dataset of radiological-specific parameters. These values should be used in cancer risk assessments for the calculation of preliminary remediation goals (PRGs), hazard characterization, and transport modeling. Users can select up to 1000 radionuclides per query. The dataset supports environmental risk assessments, regulatory decision-making, and environmental planning with tools for benchmarking against risk-based standards. This structured approach ensures a robust evaluation of environmental risks tailored to regulatory needs.
Manning, Karessa [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
Analyze Landscape of Solar Panel Installations and Retirements - Solar Prize Round 7 (CRADA CRD-24-30364 Final Report)
By projecting the solar capacity until 2050 at a granular, census tract level, we aim to define Participant's Total Addressable Market for Electra's registration service and examine the volumes and locations of panels reaching end-of-life with corresponding state policies and planned recycling locales. This dual-faceted data will be pivotal in developing a sustainable, per-watt pricing strategy for our state central funds and key areas for collection hubs, ensuring these volumes can adequately support our collection, hauling, and recycling provider network.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) (Technical Reference Manual V.4)
The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ includes generic probabilities for equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of release and flame physics. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM+ is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 4.0 from HyRAM version 3.1 is the incorporation of other alternative fuels, namely methane (as a proxy for natural gas) and propane into the toolkit. This change necessitated significant changes to the installable graphical user interface as well as changes to the back-end Python models. A second major change is the inclusion of physics models for the overpressure associated with the delayed ignition of an unconfined jet/plume of flammable gas.
02 PETROLEUM↗
Machine Learning Emulation of Spatial Deposition from a Multi-Physics Ensemble of Weather and Atmospheric Transport Models
In the event of an accidental or intentional hazardous material release in the atmosphere, researchers often run physics-based atmospheric transport and dispersion models to predict the extent and variation of the contaminant spread. These predictions are imperfect due to propagated uncertainty from atmospheric model physics (or parameterizations) and weather data initial conditions. Ensembles of simulations can be used to estimate uncertainty, but running large ensembles is often very time consuming and resource intensive, even using large supercomputers. In this paper, we present a machine-learning-based method which can be used to quickly emulate spatial deposition patterns from a multi-physics ensemble of dispersion simulations. We use a hybrid linear and logistic regression method that can predict deposition in more than 100,000 grid cells with as few as fifty training examples. Logistic regression provides probabilistic predictions of the presence or absence of hazardous materials, while linear regression predicts the quantity of hazardous materials. The coefficients of the linear regressions also open avenues of exploration regarding interpretability—the presented model can be used to find which physics schemes are most important over different spatial areas. A single regression prediction is on the order of 10,000 times faster than running a weather and dispersion simulation. However, considering the number of weather and dispersion simulations needed to train the regressions, the speed-up achieved when considering the whole ensemble is about 24 times. Ultimately, this work will allow atmospheric researchers to produce potential contamination scenarios with uncertainty estimates faster than previously possible, aiding public servants and first responders.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States
Abstract. Compound flooding is a type of flood event caused by multiple flood drivers. The associated risk has usually been assessed using statistics-based analyses or hydrodynamics-based numerical models. This study proposes a compound flood (CF) risk assessment (CFRA) framework for coastal regions in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this framework, a large-scale river model is coupled with a global ocean reanalysis dataset to (a) evaluate the CF exposure related to the coastal backwater effects on river basins, and (b) generate spatially distributed data for analyzing the CF hazard using a bivariate statistical model of river discharge and storm surge. The two kinds of risk are also combined to achieve a holistic understanding of the continental-scale CF risk. The estimated CF risk shows remarkable inter- and intra-basin variabilities along the CONUS coast with more variabilities in the CF hazard over the US west and Gulf coastal basins. Different risk assessment methods present significantly different patterns in a few key regions such as the San Francisco Bay area, the lower Mississippi River, and Puget Sound. Our results highlight the need to weigh different CF risk measures and avoid using single statistics-based or hydrodynamics-based CFRAs. Uncertainty sources in these CFRAs include the use of gauge observations, which cannot account for the flow physics or resolve the spatial variability of risks, and underestimations of the flood extremes and the dependence of CF drivers in large-scale models, highlighting the importance of understanding the CF risks for developing a more robust CFRA.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
High-Performance Computational Modeling of Strong Ground Motion for Seismic Response Analysis with Implications for High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Utilizing HYSPLIT for Emergency Response Modeling at SRS
At SRS, emergency responders use a variety of tools to detect, track, and mitigate hazardous material releases into the atmosphere. Two models currently used at SRS are Puff-Plume and the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM), a Gaussian and Lagrangian model, respectively. A decision has been made to replace LPDM with the more widely-supported Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model for evaluating inhalation and ingestion doses following a release. HYSPLIT is designed to compute complex dispersion and deposition simulation To achieve the implementation of HYSPLIT, we have developed a preliminary UI framework that will allow HYSPLIT to be run on ATG computers without the need for active network connections, thus avoiding the loss of capabilities in the event of a network outage during an emergency.
Earley, Ian↗
Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds
In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves—that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days—in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Late Holocene Cliff Retreat in Del Mar, CA, Revealed From Shore Platform 10 Be Concentrations and Numerical Modeling
Rocky coast cliff retreat presents a hazard to coastal communities and infrastructure that is potentially amplified under rising sea level conditions, among other factors. Unfortunately, constraints on retreat rates are typically limited to those derived from imagery and maps spanning the last ~100 years. Here, we use a newly developed coupled model of shore platform profile evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production that considers the influence of relative sea level (RSL) rise, weathering, material resistance, and wave height decay to model cliff retreat over millennial timescales and its potential drivers in Del Mar, California. We demonstrate the ability to use topographic and bathymetric measurements from a narrow shore platform along with a limited data set of nine cosmogenic 10Be concentrations extending ~125 m from the cliff base to obtain modeled cliff retreat rates that steadily range from 5.0 to 12.5 cm yr -1 over the last two millennia until 100 years before present. These rates are consistent with modern retreat rates of about 2–19 cm yr -1 here. RSL rise in Southern California remained relatively constant during the late Holocene, potentially explaining the relatively stable modeled cliff retreat rate over this time. We also explore the relative influence of weathering, material resistance, and wave erosion efficacy and find that both weathering and wave-driven erosion are necessary to replicate the measured data at this location, with the latter exerting a stronger control on model acceptance, suggesting that waves may provide a possible mechanism by which RSL rise may influence coastal cliff erosion in southern California.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗