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At least 127 records · Page 7

Thermal remote sensing of surface soil water content with partial vegetation cover for incorporation into climate models

This study outlines a method for the estimation of regional patterns of surface moisture availability (M(sub 0)) and fractional vegetation (Fr) in the presence of spatially variable vegetation cover. The method requires relating variations in satellite-derived (NOAA, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)) surface radiant temperature to a vegetation index (computed from satellite visible and near-infrared data) while coupling this association to an inverse modeling scheme. More than merely furnishing surface soil moisture values, the method constitues a new conceptual and practical approach for combining thermal infrared and vegetation index measurements for incorporating the derived values of M(sub 0) into hydrologic and atmospheric prediction models. Application of the technique is demonstrated for a region in and around the city of Newcastle upon Tyne situated in the northeast of England. A regional estimate of M(sub 0) is derived and is probabbly good for fractional vegetation cover up to 80% before errors in the estimated soil water content become unacceptably large. Moreover, a normalization scheme is suggested from which a nomogram, `universal triangle,' is constructed and is seen to fit the observed data well. The universal triangle also simplifies the inclusion of remotely derived M(sub 0) in hydrology and meteorological models and is perhaps a practicable step toward integrating derived data from satellite measurements in weather forecasting.

Gillies, Robert R.↗

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A First Approach to Global Runoff Simulation using Satellite Rainfall Estimation

Many hydrological models have been introduced in the hydrological literature to predict runoff but few of these have become common planning or decision-making tools, either because the data requirements are substantial or because the modeling processes are too complicated for operational application. On the other hand, progress in regional or global rainfall-runoff simulation has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of the primary causative factor, i.e. rainfall fluxes, continuously over space and time. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and space-borne radar sensors. Motivated by the recent increasing availability of global remote sensing data for estimating precipitation and describing land surface characteristics, this note reports a ballpark assessment of quasi-global runoff computed by incorporating satellite rainfall data and other remote sensing products in a relatively simple rainfall-runoff simulation approach: the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff Curve Number (CN) method. Using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a proxy of antecedent moisture conditions, this note estimates time-varying NRCS-CN values determined by the 5-day normalized API. Driven by multi-year (1998-2006) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, quasi-global runoff was retrospectively simulated with the NRCS-CN method and compared to Global Runoff Data Centre data at global and catchment scales. Results demonstrated the potential for using this simple method when diagnosing runoff values from satellite rainfall for the globe and for medium to large river basins. This work was done with the simple NRCS-CN method as a first-cut approach to understanding the challenges that lie ahead in advancing the satellite-based inference of global runoff. We expect that the successes and limitations revealed in this study will lay the basis for applying more advanced methods to capture the dynamic variability of the global hydrologic process for global runoff monlto~ngin real time. The essential ingredient in this work is the use of global satellite-based rainfall estimation.

Hong, Yang↗

Centroidal Voronoi tessellation based methods for optimal rain gauge location prediction

With more satellite and model precipitation data becoming available, new analytical methods are needed that can take advantage of emerging data patterns to make well informed predictions in many hydrological applications. Herein we propose a new strategy where we extract precipitation variability patterns and use correlation map to build the resulting density map that serves as an input to centroidal Voronoi tessellation construction that optimizes placement of precipitation gauges. We provide results of numerical experiments based on the data from the Alto-Adige region in Northern Italy and Oklahoma and compare them against actual gauge locations. This method provides an automated way for choosing new gauge locations and can be generalized to include physical constraints and to tackle other types of resource allocation problems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of multi-sensor land data assimilation on river discharge estimation

River discharge is one of the most critical renewable water resources. Accurately estimating river discharge with land surface models (LSMs) remains challenging due to the difficulty in estimating land water storages such as snow, soil moisture, and groundwater. While data assimilation (DA) ingesting optical, microwave, and gravity measurements from space can help constrain theses storage states, its impacts on runoff and eventually river discharge are not fully understood. In this study, by taking advantage of recently published land DA results that jointly assimilate eight different combinations of observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), we quantify to what degree multi-sensor land DA improves the river discharge simulation skills over 40 global river basins, and investigate the complementary strengths of different satellite measurements on river discharge. To be more specific, river discharge is updated by feeding gridded runoff from the eight multi-sensor DA simulations into a vector-based river routing model named the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID). Our modeling results, including 7-year simulations at 177,458 river reaches globally, are used to study the seasonal to interannual variability of river discharge. It is found that assimilating GRACE has the greatest impact on global runoff patterns, leading to the most pronounced improvements in spatial river discharge in the middle and high latitudes with the R 2 increased by 0.16. The seasonal variation of spatial discharge is most skillful during the boreal summer. However, our evaluation also shows model and DA still struggle to generate reasonable variability and averaged discharge over permafrost regions. Finally, by assessing how different satellites add value to discharge forecasts, this study paves the way for more advanced multi-sensor satellite data assimilation to predict the terrestrial hydrological cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI Automated Discovery of New Climate Water System Knowledge from Models and Observations

This paper addresses focus area 3, “Insight gleaned from complex data.” Science Challenge: The climate-water system is highly complex, containing a multitude of positive and negative feedbacks, time scales stretching many orders-of-magnitudes, and non-linear, connected processes. Powerful artificial intelligence (AI) methods can revolutionize and automate the discovery of new knowledge and relationships in the climate-water system, which will improve understanding and predictability of extreme hydrological events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PV Stormwater Management Research and Testing (PV-SMaRT) (Final Technical Report)

The objective of the Photovoltaic Stormwater Management Research and Testing (PV-SMaRT) project was to develop and disseminate research-based, solar-specific resources for estimating stormwater runoff at ground-mounted PV facilities and detail stormwater management and water quality best practices. The intended use of stormwater management and water quality best practices and stormwater runoff estimation resources is to reduce balance of system soft costs associated with stormwater infrastructure requirements and improve water quality through research-tested best practices. Currently, stormwater regulations and guidelines vary by jurisdiction and can lead to regulatory uncertainty and increased compliance costs for managing stormwater runoff at solar sites. To address these concerns, the NREL team and its partners (University of Minnesota, Great Plains Institute, and Fresh Energy) established and engaged an advisory Water Quality Task Force (WQTF); conducted field research on stormwater infiltration and runoff at five ground-mounted PV sites; validated a 3-D hydrologic model to predict water runoff and generate stormwater runoff coefficients for a range of site conditions and PV designs; developed a stormwater management and water quality best practices document; and engaged with local jurisdictions and other stakeholders to disseminate best practices, stormwater runoff coefficients, and other tools. Key outputs of this project were a PV-SMaRT Runoff Calculator developed by University of Minnesota, a webinar detailing project outcomes and how to use the PV-SMaRT runoff calculator, and a document on Best Practices for regulators and developers regarding stormwater runoff at PV sites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum: Forecasting Hurricane Effects at Landfall

Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones strike Central American, Caribbean, Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations even more frequently than the U.S. The global losses of life and property from the floods, landslides and debris flows caused by cyclonic storms are staggering. One of the keys to reducing these losses, both in the U.S. and internationally, is to have better forecasts of what is about to happen from several hours to days before the event. Particularly in developing nations where science, technology and communication are limited, advance-warning systems can have great impact. In developing countries, warnings of even a few hours or days can mitigate or reduce catastrophic losses of life. With the foregoing needs in mind, we propose an initial project of three years total duration that will aim to develop and transfer a warning system for a prototype region in the Central Caribbean, specifically the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum will include satellite observations to track and nowcast dangerous levels of precipitation, atmospheric and hydrological models to predict near-future runoff, and streamflow changes in affected regions, and landslide models to warn when and where landslides and debris flows are imminent. Since surface communications are likely to be interrupted during these crises, the project also includes the capability to communicate disaster information via satellite to vital government officials in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.

Negri, A.↗

The Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Forecast Skill: Two Studies

This talk briefly describes two recent studies on the impact of soil moisture information on hydrological and meteorological prediction. While the studies utilize soil moisture derived from the integration of large-scale land surface models with observations-based meteorological data, the results directly illustrate the potential usefulness of satellite-derived soil moisture information (e.g., from SMOS and SMAP) for applications in prediction. The first study, the GEWEX- and ClIVAR-sponsored GLACE-2 project, quantifies the contribution of realistic soil moisture initialization to skill in subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and air temperature (out to two months). The multi-model study shows that soil moisture information does indeed contribute skill to the forecasts, particularly for air temperature, and particularly when the initial local soil moisture anomaly is large. Furthermore, the skill contributions tend to be larger where the soil moisture initialization is more accurate, as measured by the density of the observational network contributing to the initialization. The second study focuses on streamflow prediction. The relative contributions of snow and soil moisture initialization to skill in streamflow prediction at seasonal lead, in the absence of knowledge of meteorological anomalies during the forecast period, were quantified with several land surface models using uniquely designed numerical experiments and naturalized streamflow data covering mUltiple decades over the western United States. In several basins, accurate soil moisture initialization is found to contribute significant levels of predictive skill. Depending on the date of forecast issue, the contributions can be significant out to leads of six months. Both studies suggest that improvements in soil moisture initialization would lead to increases in predictive skill. The relevance of SMOS and SMAP satellite-based soil moisture information to prediction are discussed in the context of these studies.

Koster, Randal↗

The Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) Campaign

The science of mountainous hydrology spans the atmosphere through the bedrock and inherently crosses physical and disciplinary boundaries: land-atmosphere interactions in complex terrain enhance clouds and precipitation, while watersheds retain and release water over a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Limited observations in complex terrain challenge efforts to improve predictive models of the hydrology in the face of rapid changes. The Upper Colorado River exemplifies these challenges, especially with ongoing mismatches between precipitation, snowpack, and discharge. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has deployed an observatory to the East River Watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado between September 2021 and June 2023 to measure the main atmospheric drivers of water resources, including precipitation, clouds, winds, aerosols, radiation, temperature and humidity. This effort, called the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL), is also working in tandem with DOE-sponsored surface and subsurface hydrologists and other federal, state, and local partners. SAIL data can be benchmarks for model development by producing a wide range of observational information on precipitation and its associated processes, including those processes that impact snowpack sublimation and redistribution, aerosol direct radiative effects in the atmosphere and in the snowpack, aerosol impacts on clouds and precipitation, and processes controlling surface fluxes of energy and mass. Preliminary data from SAIL’s first year showcase the rich information content in SAIL’s many data-streams and support testing hypotheses that will ultimately improve scientific understanding and predictability of Upper Colorado River hydrology in 2023 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Short-Term Retrospective Land Data Assimilation Schemes

Subsurface moisture and temperature and snow/ice stores exhibit persistence on various time scales that has important implications for the extended prediction of climatic and hydrologic extremes. Hence, to improve their specification of the land surface, many numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers have incorporated complex land surface schemes in their forecast models. However, because land storages are integrated states, errors in NWP forcing accumulates in these stores, which leads to incorrect surface water and energy partitioning. This has motivated the development of Land Data Assimilation Schemes (LDAS) that can be used to constrain NWP surface storages. An LDAS is an uncoupled land surface scheme that is forced primarily by observations, and is therefore less affected by NWP forcing biases. The implementation of an LDAS also provides the opportunity to correct the model's trajectory using remotely-sensed observations of soil temperature, soil moisture, and snow using data assimilation methods. The inclusion of data assimilation in LDAS will greatly increase its predictive capacity, as well as provide high-quality land surface assimilated data.

Houser, P. R.↗

Hyperresolution Global Land Surface Modeling: Meeting a Grand Challenge for Monitoring Earth's Terrestrial Water

Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (approx.10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 10(exp 9) unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a grand challenge to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

Wood, Eric F.↗

Hydrologic Regionalization under Data Scarcity: Implications for Streamflow Prediction

Continuous streamflow prediction is crucial in many applications of water resources planning and management. However, streamflow prediction is challenging, particularly in data-scarce regions. Here, we demonstrate an approach to regionalize the flow duration curve for predicting daily streamflow in the data-scare region of the central Himalayas. We developed a regression-based model to estimate streamflow at various segments of a flow duration curve by incorporating basin characteristics and climate variables. This study analyzes the sensitivities of proximity and characteristics between the donor (gauged) and receptor (ungauged) basins for time-series streamflow prediction. Our results show that regionalization techniques perform better in low to medium flows over high flows. Our findings are significant in the central Himalayan regional context to inform operational and management decisions in water sector projects like hydropower plants, which generally rely on low-to-medium streamflow information. Although the quantitative results are region-specific, the approach and insights are generalizable to the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall error propagation to rainfall-runoff model hydrographs

Rainfall is arguably the most important yet most variable input for rainfall-runoff hydrologic models. In this study, the authors search for the characteristics of radar-rainfall estimates that are most important for skillful streamflow predictions. They perform comprehensive hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall characteristics, including spatiotemporal resolution, radar range visibility, statistical characterization of rainfall variability, all vis-a-vis basin characteristics such as size and river network topology. Since the true rainfall fields are unknown, the authors exploit a paradigm of using two independently constructed radar-rainfall products i.e., Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor and IFC-ZR used operationally by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC). Using the distributed hydrologic model called the Hillslope-Link Model for the domain of the state of Iowa, they evaluate streamflow prediction at 140 USGS gauge stations that monitor rivers in Iowa. Through spatial and temporal rainfall aggregation experiments, the authors show that the impact of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall is significant typically for smaller basins while starts reducing significantly for basins larger than 1,000 km 2 . Other rainfall characteristics they explored do not reveal a strong signature in the relationship of rainfall differences between the two products and hydrograph errors. However, exploring the product similarities rather than differences reveals that the basin-wide rainfall volume has the most significant effect on streamflow prediction. The results from this study are generalizable for all rainfall observing systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling the hydrological cycle in assessments of climate change

The predictions of climate change studies depend crucially on the hydrological cycles embedded in the different models used. It is shown here that uncertainties in hydrological processes and inconsistencies in both climate and impact models limit confidence in current assessments of climate change. A future course of action to remedy this problem is suggested.

Rind, D.↗

Deciphering controls on metal migration within floodplains: The critical role of redox environments on metal-organic complexes (Final Technical Report)

Our project elucidates the effect of differing hydrologic regimes on nutrient and contaminant dynamics within floodplains, and we explore the impact of varying sources of hydrologic extremes on nutrient-contaminant fate and transport. We use a combination of field measurements and laboratory experiments to examine the relationships between redox conditions, functionality of dissolved organic matter, metal speciation (specifically examining metal-ligand complexes), and nutrient-contaminant fate, particularly during hydrologic extremes. Floodplain biogeochemical variation through climatic extremes and beaver-induced hydrologic variation provide a unique look at controls on nutrient-contaminant fate and transport. Through our work, we have developed a novel approach that provides an unprecedented ability to resolve aqueous metal-organic complexes that reveals metal binding preferences for natural organic matter based on metal-ligand chemistry. We have developed novel methods to separate, quantify, and characterize organic-metal complexes in natural DOM that pair with field experiments comprising floodplains having systematic variation in biogeochemical conditions. We also developed a comprehensive computational approach for molecular characterization of metal-organic species that merges LC-coupled high resolution (HR) mass spectrometry and ICP-MS analysis. Importantly, we show that beaver dams have an outsized influence on hydrologic extremes, dwarfing the impact of climatic variation, that ultimate control biogeochemical conditions and water quality. Additionally, beaver dams impose a hydrologic driver that leads to improved, river water quality by divert water through soils and the hyporheic zone. We further show that iron(III) minerals have a dominant control on carbon mineralization across floodplains independent of hydrologic conditions, and that iron and aluminum associations with organic matter are a controlling factor in carbon mineralization. Ultimately, our work is helping to advancing a robust predictive understanding of how hydrologic changes in watersheds affect water quality and carbon and metal cycling in riparian zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of Snow Parameters Based on Passive Microwave Remote Sensing and Meteorological Information

A method to incorporate passive microwave remote sensing measurements within a spatially distributed snow hydrology model to provide estimates of the spatial distribution of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) as a function of time is implemented. The passive microwave remote sensing measurements are at 25 km resolution. However, in mountain regions the spatial variability of SWE over a 25 km footprint is large due to topographic influences. On the other hand, the snow hydrology model has built-in topographic information and the capability to estimate SWE at a 1 km resolution. In our work, the snow hydrology SWE estimates are updated and corrected using SSM/I passive microwave remote sensing measurements. The method is applied to the Upper Rio Grande River Basin in the mountains of Colorado. The change in prediction of SWE from hydrology modeling with and without updating is compared with measurements from two SNOTEL sites in and near the basin. The results indicate that the method incorporating the remote sensing measurements into the hydrology model is able to more closely estimate the temporal evolution of the measured values of SWE as a function of time.

Tsang, Leung↗