Results for “hypothesis testing” — Page 7

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site requirements for inhibition-free CO oxidation over silica-supported bimetallic PdCu alloys

Pd catalysts are highly active for CO oxidation but suffer from inhibition by NO at low temperatures (<150 °C). We posit that incorporation of Cu into the Pd catalyst will improve low-temperature CO oxidation activity and reduce inhibition from competitive adsorbers. To probe this hypothesis, a series of PdCu alloys with different Pd : Cu ratios were synthesized and tested in the temperature-programmed oxidation of CO in the presence and absence of NO. Incorporation of small amounts of Cu into Pd improves the reactivity, as well as the resistance to NO inhibition. Beyond this, Cu incorporation into the Pd has a detrimental effect on the activity for CO oxidation. Based on combined infrared and X-ray absorption spectroscopy studies, here we show that high activity and resistance to inhibition requires alloying of Pd and Cu and the formation of a diverse surface, while surface segregation of Cu results in poor activity and inhibition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing the PeV region in the astrophysical neutrino spectrum using 𝜈 𝜇 from the Southern sky

IceCube has observed a diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux over the energy region from a few TeV to a few PeV. At PeV energies, the spectral shape is not yet well measured due to the low statistics of the data. This analysis probes the gap between 1 and 10 PeV by using high-energy downgoing muon neutrinos. Here, to reject the large atmospheric muon background, two complementary techniques are combined. The first technique selects events with high stochasticity to reject atmospheric muon bundles whose stochastic energy losses are smoothed due to high muon multiplicity. The second technique vetoes atmospheric muons with the IceTop surface array. Using 9 yrs of data, we found two neutrino candidate events in the signal region, consistent with expectation from background, each with relatively high signal probabilities. A joint maximum likelihood estimation is performed using this sample and an independent 9.5-yr sample of tracks to measure the neutrino spectrum. A likelihood ratio test is done to compare the single power-law (SPL) vs SPL+cutoff hypothesis; the SPL+cutoff model is not significantly better than the SPL. High-energy astrophysical objects from four source catalogs are also checked around the direction of the two events. No significant coincidence was found.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University Chicago] (ORCID:0000↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learned magnetic map cues and two mechanisms of magnetoreception in turtles

Growing evidence indicates that migratory animals exploit the magnetic field of the Earth for navigation, both as a compass to determine direction and as a map to determine geographical position. It has long been proposed that, to navigate using a magnetic map, animals must learn the magnetic coordinates of the destination, yet the pivotal hypothesis that animals can learn magnetic signatures of geographical areas has, to our knowledge, yet to be tested. Here, in this work, we report that an iconic navigating species, the loggerhead turtle ( Caretta caretta ), can learn such information. When fed repeatedly in magnetic fields replicating those that exist in particular oceanic locations, juvenile turtles learned to distinguish magnetic fields in which they encountered food from magnetic fields that exist elsewhere, an ability that might underlie foraging site fidelity. Conditioned responses in this new magnetic map assay were unaffected by radiofrequency oscillating magnetic fields, a treatment expected to disrupt radical-pair-based chemical magnetoreception, suggesting that the magnetic map sense of the turtle does not rely on this mechanism. By contrast, orientation behaviour that required use of the magnetic compass was disrupted by radiofrequency oscillating magnetic fields. The findings provide evidence that two different mechanisms of magnetoreception underlie the magnetic map and magnetic compass in sea turtles.

animal behaviour↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Training of Deep Neural Operator Networks via Randomized Sampling

Neural operators (NOs) employ deep neural networks to learn the mappings between infinitedimensional function spaces. Deep operator network (DeepONet), a popular NO architecture, has demonstrated success in the real-time prediction of complex dynamics across various scientific and engineering applications. In this work, we introduce a random sampling technique to be adopted during the training of DeepONet, aimed at improving the generalization ability of the model, while significantly reducing the computational time. The proposed approach targets the trunk network of the DeepONet model that outputs the basis functions corresponding to the spatiotemporal locations of the bounded domain on which the physical system is defined. While constructing the loss function, DeepONet training traditionally considers a uniform grid of spatiotemporal points at which all the output functions are evaluated for each iteration. This approach leads to a larger batch size, resulting in poor generalization and increased memory demands, due to the limitations of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizer. The proposed random sampling over the inputs of the trunk net mitigates these challenges, improving generalization and reducing the memory requirements during training, resulting in significant computational gains. We validate our hypothesis through three benchmark examples, demonstrating substantial reductions in training time while achieving comparable or lower overall test errors relative to the traditional training approach. Our results indicate that incorporating randomization in the trunk network inputs during training enhances the efficiency and robustness of DeepONet, offering a promising avenue for improving the framework’s performance in modeling complex physical systems.

Karumuri, Sharmila [Department of Civil & Systems ↗

DOE OSTI2024

M3SF-24LL010302052-Comprehensive Analysis of Radionuclide Interaction with Hydrothermally Altered Repository Materials

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010302052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline Work Package Number SF-24LL01030205. The research is focused on actinide and radionuclide sequestration in hydrothermally altered repository materials. In FY24, we completed a rigorous analysis of Se sorption to iron oxide phases using our L-SCIE sorption database. This effort explicitly accounts for surface titration behavior of oxide surfaces that was the subject of a recently published manuscript (Han et al., 2023). With this in mind, our Se sorption analysis now yields a more robust workflow for developing self-consistent surface complexation modeling approaches that can be adapted to specific SCM conceptual and numerical approaches (i.e. non-electrostatic, diffuse layer, triple layer models). In late FY24, we plan to publish the results of our comprehensive surface complexation modeling of Se(IV) and Se(VI) sorption to iron oxide mineral phases and provide a path forward to developing robust radionuclide sorption models for use in performance assessment. In FY24, we also submitted a manuscript summarizing our approach to integrating radionuclide sorption and coprecipitation phenomena and evaluation of radionuclide partitioning values across a range of radionuclides relevant to performance assessment. We demonstrated our approach in detail using Se sorption and coprecipitation with iron oxide minerals as a test case. This manuscript was recently accepted for publication in Applied Geochemistry (Balboni et al., Accepted). We also continued experiments to identify radionuclide interaction with hydrothermally altered crystalline repository and backfill materials. Recent research performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) has provided key insights regarding the hydrothermal alteration behavior of bentonite backfill in the presence of repository materials (steel, concrete, etc.). We are now examining how mineral alteration affects retardation behavior of a suite of radionuclides of interest to repository performance assessment. These experiments also allow us to test the predictive ability of our component additivity approach to surface complexation and ion exchange. Our guiding hypothesis is that a robust surface complexation/ion exchange model and associated database, developed using our L-SCIE approach, can effectively predict changes in radionuclide sorption behavior resulting from the hydrothermal alteration of mineralogy in a repository near field. A short update of results to date is presented below.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2026

M3SF-25LL010302052 - Radionuclide Interaction with Hydrothermally Altered Repository Materials

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-25LL010302052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline Host Rock Properties & Processes - LLNL Number SF-25LL01030205. Observed changes in radionuclide sorption after bentonite/clay heating have implications for radionuclide diffusive transport through engineered barriers and must be considered when designing waste disposal repositories. Recent research performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has provided key insights regarding the hydrothermal alteration behavior of bentonite backfill in the presence of repository materials (steel, concrete, etc.). We are examining how this mineral alteration affects retardation behavior of a suite of radionuclides of interest to repository performance assessment. Sorption experiments and data analysis for 233 U were initiated in FY24 following earlier experiments performed on 243 Am, 90 Sr, 137 Cs. In FY25, we completed the 233 U study and initiated and completed a study of 237 Np sorption. Below, we summarize the results and potential impacts of hydrothermal alteration on radionuclide retardation and assess the importance of this process to radionuclide migration from a GHRDC. We also use statistical tools (i.e. PCA) to help us determine the major drivers in affecting changes in measured Kd values induced by hydrothermal alteration. These experiments also allow us to test the predictive ability of our component additivity approach to surface complexation and ion exchange. Our guiding hypothesis is that a robust surface complexation/ion exchange model and associated database can effectively predict changes in radionuclide sorption behavior resulting from the hydrothermal alteration of mineralogy in a repository near field. In November 2024 the paper “Selenium interaction with iron minerals: Quantitative comparison of sorption and coprecipitation impacts on mobility” was published in Applied Geochemistry. A short update of results to date is presented below. In FY25, we also actively supported the DITUSC project, which is part of the EURADII initiative, as associate partners. We are executing the Migration2025 conference and support associated the NEA-TDB and Thermochimie workshops that will provide critical international engagements and develop consensus and synergy in thermodynamics as it relates to supporting the US nuclear waste repository program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response using a degradation-aware Bayesian Optimization-Mixed-Integer Linear Programming framework

The increasing integration of renewable energy and rising electricity demand highlight the importance of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response. Unlike prior approaches that overlook operational impacts on degradation, this study proposes a Bayesian Optimization–Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for optimal battery energy storage system sizing. In this framework, Mixed Integer Linear Programming determines short-term scheduling while a calibrated electrochemical model iteratively evaluates degradation. The central hypothesis is that the framework can efficiently identify optimal sizes that yield realistic and economically robust outcomes. The method is tested across three scenarios: peak shaving, peak shaving with energy-reduction demand response, and peak shaving with power-reduction demand response. Results show that the framework converge to the optimum within 20 iterations out of 150 possible sizes. Under baseline conditions, the framework consistently selects the smallest feasible system, minimizing unnecessary degradation costs from oversized storage. Sensitivity analyses reveal that larger systems are favored as demand rates or incentives increase. Comparisons of demand response programs indicate that power-reduction demand response offers greater economic benefits than energy-reduction demand response, although demand savings from peak shaving remain the dominant contributor to overall performance. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework balances computational tractability with degradation fidelity, identifies critical economic thresholds for investment, and offers a practical, flexible tool to guide industrial stakeholders in cost-effective battery energy storage system deployment.

Batteries↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dissimilar Material Joining via Interlocking Metasurfaces

Background The integration of dissimilar materials poses a significant challenge in engineering, necessitating innovative solutions for robust and reliable joining. Interlocking metasurfaces (ILMs) are a new joining technology comprising arrays of autogenous features patterned across two surfaces that interlock to form robust structural joints. Objective Here, this study elucidates the factors influencing the tensile performance of ILM joints formed between dissimilar materials. Methods We employed parametric optimization to identify optimal unit cell geometries for maximal yield strength based on the hypothesis that the elastic tensile properties of the materials are the primary determinants of tensile performance. Experimental validation was performed by mechanically testing the theorized optimal ILM geometry and a range of ILM geometries to capture the overall behavior trends of joints between two additively manufactured polymers, VeroPureWhite (VW) and RGDA8430-DM (8430). Results Experimental validation of optimized designs revealed that additional factors, e.g. flexural strength and localized plasticity, also strongly influenced the tensile performance of T-slot ILMs joining dissimilar materials. The proposed optimal design remained the best performer. Conclusions This study demonstrates the viability of ILMs as a joining method for dissimilar materials. ILMs can join dissimilar materials with no loss in joint yield strength compared to joints composed solely of the weaker of the two constitutive materials. ILMs demonstrated their potential as a versatile and effective joining technology in diverse engineering applications.

Elbrecht, Benjamin James [Sandia National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-fluid behavior in rapid compression machines: Does it matter?

Rapid compression machines (RCMs) have been extensively used to quantify fuel autoignition chemistry and validate chemical kinetic models at high-pressure conditions. Historically, the analyses of experimental and modeling RCM autoignition data have been conducted based on the adiabatic core hypothesis with ideal gas assumption, where real-fluid behavior has been completely overlooked, though this might be significant at common RCM test conditions. Here, this work presents a first-of-its-kind study that addresses two significant but overlooked questions for autoignition studies within RCMs in the fundamental combustion community: (i) experiment-wise, can unaccounted-for real-fluid behavior in RCMs affect the interpretation and analysis of RCM experimental data? and (ii) simulation-wise, can unaccounted-for real-fluid behavior in RCMs affect RCM autoignition modeling and the validation of chemical kinetic models? To this end, theories for real-fluid isentropic change are newly proposed and derived based on high-order Virial EoS, and are further incorporated into an effective-volume real-fluid autoignition modeling framework newly developed for RCMs. With detailed analyses, the strong real-fluid behavior in representative RCM tests is confirmed, which can greatly influence the interpretation of RCM autoignition experiments, particularly the determination of end-of-compression temperature and evolution of the adiabatic core in the reaction chamber. Furthermore, real-fluid RCM modeling results reveal that considerable error can be introduced into simulating RCM autoignition experiments when following the community-wide accepted effective-volume approach by assuming ideal-gas behavior, which can be as high as 64% in the simulated ignition delay time at compressed pressure of 125 bar and lead to contradictory validation results of chemical kinetic models. Therefore, we recommend the community to adopt frameworks with real-fluid behavior fully accounted for (e.g., the one developed in this study) to analyze and simulate past and future RCM experiments, so as to avoid misinterpretation of RCM autoignition experiments and eliminate the potential errors that can be introduced into the simulation results with the existing RCM modeling frameworks.

High-order Virial equation of state↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulations of field emitters and multipacting in PIP-II Single Spoke Resonator Type-2

It has been found in benchmark tests that some Single Spoke Resonator Type-2 (SSR2) cavities have early field emission onset as well as strong multipacting barriers. A longstanding hypothesis is that field-emitted electrons in the high electric field accelerating gap can migrate and ignite multipacting bands in the low electric field regions of the cavity periphery. In this study, we use simulation techniques to examine multipacting behavior in SSR2 cavities from electrons seeded in common field emitter locations. Additionally, we investigated seed locations for areas in SSR2 cavities which may have poor coverage during high pressure water rinsing and compared the multipacting behavior.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Testing and Characterization to Develop a Mechanistic Explanation for Unsaturated Drift of Fiber Optic Sensors during High-Dose Irradiation

The primary limitation for any optical fiber-based sensor for nuclear reactor applications is radiation-induced attenuation (RIA) of the transmitted and/or reflected signals. Based on several recent studies, RIA is tolerable for some fused silica optical fibers with the proper choice of sensing wavelength and fiber dopants. For extreme temperature applications (> 1000°C), sapphire optical fibers have been proposed; however, recent optical transmission measurements performed on bulk sapphire samples showed prohibitively large RIA. For some sensors, radiation-induced dimensional changes in the fiber materials can also cause significant drift. Moreover, the drift that was observed in numerous experiments performed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), the Advanced Test Reactor, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor, and other international facilities far exceeded what would be expected based on compaction of fused silica glass. Clearly, additional work is needed to better understand the origins of both RIA and radiation-induced drift in both silica and sapphire optical fiber-based sensors before these sensors can be reliably deployed for nuclear applications. This work evaluated the underlying mechanisms that may be responsible for RIA and drift in silica and sapphire materials. First, detailed characterization was performed on bulk fused silica glass samples that were previously irradiated to different neutron fluences at different temperatures to better understand the structural changes that drive radiation-induced drift in the absence of coating effects that are discussed later. Results show that the non-monotonic compaction that occurs with increasing neutron fluence continues up to fast neutron fluences approaching 10 22 n/cm 2 , which has important implications for physics-based models that may be used to compensate for the sensor drift. Initial Raman spectroscopy and synchrotron x-ray diffraction provide insights into the nature of the structural changes. Next, detailed characterizations were performed on silica fibers with various coatings that were subjected to several different thermal treatments. The hypothesis is that the coatings convert to carbon-rich materials that compact under irradiation, putting a large compressive strain on the fiber. Out-of-pile testing confirms that both polyimide and acrylate fiber coatings convert to glassy carbon (GC) materials when heated under inert conditions, and the degree of order (i.e., graphitization) increases with increasing temperature. The results provide increasingly strong evidence that the combination of polymeric coatings and inert (or vacuum) conditions render fiber optic sensors susceptible to significant radiation-induced drift that would not otherwise exist in uncoated fibers. Finally, transmission electron microscopy was performed on bulk sapphire samples that were irradiated to two neutron fluences at different temperatures to gain insights into the potential mechanisms driving the prohibitive RIA at higher neutron fluences and temperatures. Contrary to previous hypotheses, results show that scattering from radiation-induced voids cannot explain the observed RIA. Similarly, models for scattering losses from dislocation loops also do not agree with the experimental results. Instead, fitting to the experimental data shows that increased absorption from aluminum vacancy centers is the most likely explanation for the the prohibitively large RIA that was observed at high irradiation temperature and dose. In addition, the voids that formed in these single-crystal samples were found to align along the basal plane (a-axis) as opposed to that seen in previous observations of c-axis alignment in polycrystalline samples, which could have important implications for anisotropic swelling and other phenomena that could affect sensor performance at high neutron fluence.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Testing and Characterization to Develop a Mechanistic Explanation for Unsaturated Drift of Fiber Optic Sensors during High-Dose Irradiation

The primary limitation for any optical fiber-based sensor for nuclear reactor applications is radiation-induced attenuation (RIA) of the transmitted and/or reflected signals. Based on several recent studies, RIA is tolerable for some fused silica optical fibers with the proper choice of sensing wavelength and fiber dopants. For extreme temperature applications (> 1000°C), sapphire optical fibers have been proposed; however, recent optical transmission measurements performed on bulk sapphire samples showed prohibitively large RIA. For some sensors, radiation-induced dimensional changes in the fiber materials can also cause significant drift. Moreover, the drift that was observed in numerous experiments performed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), the Advanced Test Reactor, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor, and other international facilities far exceeded what would be expected based on compaction of fused silica glass. Clearly, additional work is needed to better understand the origins of both RIA and radiation-induced drift in both silica and sapphire optical fiber-based sensors before these sensors can be reliably deployed for nuclear applications. This work evaluated the underlying mechanisms that may be responsible for RIA and drift in silica and sapphire materials. First, detailed characterization was performed on bulk fused silica glass samples that were previously irradiated to different neutron fluences at different temperatures to better understand the structural changes that drive radiation-induced drift in the absence of coating effects that are discussed later. Results show that the non-monotonic compaction that occurs with increasing neutron fluence continues up to fast neutron fluences approaching 10 22 n/cm 2 , which has important implications for physics-based models that may be used to compensate for the sensor drift. Initial Raman spectroscopy and synchrotron x-ray diffraction provide insights into the nature of the structural changes. Next, detailed characterizations were performed on silica fibers with various coatings that were subjected to several different thermal treatments. The hypothesis is that the coatings convert to carbon-rich materials that compact under irradiation, putting a large compressive strain on the fiber. Out-of-pile testing confirms that both polyimide and acrylate fiber coatings convert to glassy carbon (GC) materials when heated under inert conditions, and the degree of order (i.e., graphitization) increases with increasing temperature. The results provide increasingly strong evidence that the combination of polymeric coatings and inert (or vacuum) conditions render fiber optic sensors susceptible to significant radiation-induced drift that would not otherwise exist in uncoated fibers. Finally, transmission electron microscopy was performed on bulk sapphire samples that were irradiated to two neutron fluences at different temperatures to gain insights into the potential mechanisms driving the prohibitive RIA at higher neutron fluences and temperatures. Contrary to previous hypotheses, results show that scattering from radiation-induced voids cannot explain the observed RIA. Similarly, models for scattering losses from dislocation loops also do not agree with the experimental results. Instead, fitting to the experimental data shows that increased absorption from aluminum vacancy centers is the most likely explanation for the the prohibitively large RIA that was observed at high irradiation temperature and dose. In addition, the voids that formed in these single-crystal samples were found to align along the basal plane (a-axis) as opposed to that seen in previous observations of c-axis alignment in polycrystalline samples, which could have important implications for anisotropic swelling and other phenomena that could affect sensor performance at high neutron fluence.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methods and stability tests associated with the sterile neutrino search using improved high-energy ν μ event reconstruction in IceCube

We provide supporting details for the search for a 3 + 1 sterile neutrino using data collected over 10.7 years at the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The analysis uses atmospheric muon-flavored neutrinos from 0.5 to 100 TeV that traverse Earth to reach the IceCube detector and finds a best-fit point at sin 2 ( 2 θ 24 ) = 0.16 and Δ m 41 2 = 3.5 eV 2 with a goodness-of-fit p value of 12% and consistency with the null hypothesis of no oscillations to sterile neutrinos with a p value of 3.1%. Several improvements were made over past analyses, which are reviewed in this article, including upgrades to the reconstruction and the study of sources of systematic uncertainty. We provide details of the fit quality and discuss stability tests that split the data for separate samples, comparing results. We find that the fits are consistent between split datasets. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Abbasi, R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation Studies of RELAP5-3D for High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Analysis Using a Refined RELAP5-3D Model of the High Temperature Test Facility

RELAP5-3D has been used extensively for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) analysis, but such analysis lies outside the validation basis for the code. Oregon State University (OSU) and the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) – Gas-cooled reactor campaign worked together to design and operate the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at OSU to provide validation data for prismatic HTGR thermal hydraulics analysis. Work using a previous RELAP5-3D model of HTTF demonstrated the ability to reproduce trends in HTTF data but an inability to reproduce the values measured in multiple experiments within the uncertainty. It was hypothesized that a new model with a finer radial nodalization would perform better for HTTF analysis. In this paper, we present the development of that more refined model and analyze HTTF experiments PG-27 and PG-29, a pressurized (PCC) and depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC) transient. Comparing PG-27 results to experimental data shows a better prediction of steady state and transient temperatures; however, a deeper dive reveals that better transient temperature predictions are a result of better initial conditions. The transient temperature rise in the core is comparable between the two models, but the legacy model predicts temperatures in the reflectors better. The new model demonstrates the ability to predict unique temperatures in each sector of the core during PG-29, capturing the azimuthal asymmetry; however, the temperature predictions still differ from measured temperatures. One hypothesis is that differences between the assumed and actual power distribution leads to the underprediction of the individual block temperatures. These results suggest that gaps and uncertainties in the measured boundary conditions for the HTTF tests do not allow to fully validate RELAP5-3D for prismatic HTGR analyses. The authors suspect that some of the differences between predicted and measured temperatures may be a result of uncertainties associated with HTTF itself rather than RELAP5-3D. We demonstrated improved validation for steady-state analysis, but significantly improved transient performance has yet to be recognized.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Mass Conservation Relaxed (MCR) LSTM Model for Streamflow Simulation Across CONUS

The recent development of the physics-aware Mass-Conserving Long Short-Term Memory network (MC-LSTM) provides an alternative to other data-driven Deep Learning (DL) models in hydrology. Mass-Conserving Long Short-Term Memory incorporates mass conservation directly into the LSTM architecture. Despite the theoretical advancements, studies have reported a surprisingly limited performance of the MC-LSTM in streamflow simulation. We hypothesize that such a limitation is due to the unrealistic mass conservation scheme in MC-LSTM, which overlooks unobserved incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation. As an attempt to verify this hypothesis, we propose a Mass Conservation Relaxed LSTM (MCR-LSTM), which incorporates a bi-directional mass relaxation (MR) component to account for potential incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation. We train and test the proposed MCR-LSTM model across 531 watersheds in the contiguous United States (CONUS) against three baseline models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, LSTM, and MC-LSTM. Our results show that MCR-LSTM outperforms MC-LSTM despite its underperformance compared to LSTM. Specifically, MCR-LSTM's advantage over MC-LSTM is mainly seen in the Plains and Western U.S., where the newly incorporated MR component better simulates water loss and suggests the likely existence of additional incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation, respectively. The novelty and contribution of this study are twofold: firstly, it introduces an alternative physics-aware DL tool (i.e., MCR-LSTM) in hydrology with higher accuracy in specific regions compared to MC-LSTM. Secondly, it provides a diagnosis of regions where strict, precipitation-based mass conservation constraints may be unrealistic in streamflow simulation.

deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

BrainXcan identifies brain features associated with behavioral and psychiatric traits using large-scale genetic and imaging data

Advances in brain MRI have enabled many discoveries in neuroscience. Case-control comparisons of brain MRI features have highlighted potential causes of psychiatric and behavioral disorders. However, due to the cost and difficulty of collecting MRI data, most studies have small sample sizes, limiting their reliability. Furthermore, reverse causality complicates interpretation because many observed brain differences are the result rather than the cause of the disease. Here we propose a method (BrainXcan) that leverages the power of large-scale genomewide association studies (GWAS) and reference brain MRI data to discover new mechanisms of disease etiology and validate existing ones. BrainXcan tests the association with genetic predictors of brain MRI-derived features and complex traits to pinpoint relevant brain-wide and region-specific features. Requiring only genetic data, BrainXcan allows us to test a host of hypotheses on mental illness, across many MRI modalities, using public data resources. For example, our method shows that reduced axonal density across the brain is associated with schizophrenia risk, consistent with the disconnectivity hypothesis. We also find that the hippocampus volume is associated with schizophrenia risk, highlighting the potential of our approach. Taken together, our results show the promise of BrainXcan to provide insights into the biology of GWAS traits.

Association study↗

DOE OSTI2026

Calibrated particle identification for Belle II

We present several efforts aimed at improving charged particle identification at the Belle II experiment. We define an ablation test to quantify and evaluate the impact of each sub-detector on the global particle identification performance. We demonstrate that the performance of the identification scheme can be improved via a simple calibration of the sub-detector likelihoods through a set of per hypothesis, per sub-detector weights. Finally, we present preliminary results on an improved definition of the likelihoods contributed by the electromagnetic calorimeter. A set of multiclass boosted decision trees is trained to exploit the shape of energy depositions of different particle species. In simulated $B\bar{B}$ events, the pion-to-electron and muon fake rates are reduced by 55% and 31% respectively at low-medium momentum.

Hohmann, Marcel [Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, VI↗