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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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119 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Non-reciprocal transmission of microwave acoustic waves in nonlinear parity–time symmetric resonators

Acoustic waves are versatile on-chip information carriers that can be used in applications such as microwave filters and transducers. Nonreciprocal devices, in which the transmission of waves is non-symmetric between two ports, are desirable for the manipulation and routing of phonons, but building acoustic non-reciprocal devices is difficult because acoustic systems typically have a linear response. Here, we report non-reciprocal transmission of microwave surface acoustic waves using a nonlinear parity–time symmetric system based on two coupled acoustic resonators in a lithium niobate platform. Furthermore, owing to the strong piezoelectricity of lithium niobate, we can tune the gain, loss and nonlinearity of the system using electric circuitry. Our approach can achieve 10 dB of non-reciprocal transmission for surface acoustic waves at a frequency of 200 MHz, and we use it to demonstrate a one-way circulation of acoustic waves in cascading non-reciprocal devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Emitter Formation Dynamics and Probing of Radiation-Induced Atomic Disorder in Silicon

Near-infrared color centers in silicon are emerging candidates for on-chip integrated quantum emitters, optical-access quantum memories, and sensing. We access ensemble G-color-center formation dynamics and radiation-induced atomic disorder in silicon for a series of megaelectronvolt proton-flux conditions. The photoluminescence results reveal that the G centers are formed more efficiently by pulsed-proton irradiation than by continuous-wave proton irradiation. The enhanced transient excitations and dynamic annealing within nanoseconds allows optimization of the ratio of G-center formation to nonradiative defect accumulation. The G centers preserve narrow line widths of about 0.1 nm when they are generated by moderate pulsed-proton fluences, while the line width broadens significantly as the pulsed-proton fluence increases. This implies vacancy or interstitial clustering by overlapping collision cascades. The tracking of G-center properties for a series of irradiation conditions enables sensitive probing of atomic disorder, serving as a complementary analytical method for sensing damage accumulation. Aided by ab initio electronic structure calculations, we provide insight into the atomic disorder induced inhomogeneous broadening by introducing vacancies, silicon interstitials, and oriented strain fields in the vicinity of a G center. A vacancy leads to a tensile strain and can result in either a red shift or a blue shift of the G-center emission, depending on its position relative to the G center. Meanwhile, Si interstitials lead to compressive strain, which results in a monotonic red shift. In conclusion, high-flux and tunable ion pulses enable the exploration of the fundamental dynamics of radiation-induced defects as well as methods for the optimization of G-center formation and qubit synthesis for quantum information processing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Control Methods and Digital Twins for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Advanced nuclear reactors offer a new set of features to energy generation, due to their ability to adapt to variable energy demand, operate autonomously, be deployed in rural locations and monitored remotely, afford compact size and lower power ratings, and rely on novel technologies to achieve safer operations. Thus, a requirement for the success of these reactors is the use of intelligent forms of control to track changing power demands, make autonomous decisions, and reduce the need for human involvement. Regulatory requirements pertaining to control of nuclear reactors could be met via historical means of control; however, these are not expected to enable the level of highly autonomous operations desired in advanced nuclear reactors. Historical control methods rely on both logical and high-performance (HP) control. These two types of control are usually used separately, with a human element being introduced whenever decisions are cascaded from one science to another. AI/ML control, on the other hand, can replace the human element in the current U.S. fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) by acting as a supervisory optimizer that understands the plant internal/external variables in order to make control decisions, and can easily handle non-linear and multi-input/multi out (MIMO) decisions—another requirement for advanced nuclear reactors that could be difficult to handle via logical and HP control. Because of the harsh operating environments produced in advanced reactors, resulting in the frequent failure of sensors and other types of equipment, and considering the lack of operating history for advanced nuclear reactors, control of advanced nuclear reactors would necessitate relying on a model that can track and adapt to the actual process (i.e., a digital twin). This digital twin can make approximations when knowledge and data are unavailable and would evolve as more knowledge is gained. The reactor control must also be risk-informed to account for the high-consequence nature of advanced reactors. This report introduces a high-level (i.e., not method- or process-specific) integration of the three different control and digital twinning methods able to meet the requirements for advanced nuclear reactors. These methods could be applied during both the operational and design stages of these reactors. The aim is to demonstrate how each method interfaces with and highlights enabling solutions necessitated by the unique features of advanced nuclear reactors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Refueling Infrastructure Scoping and Feasibility Assessment for Hydrogen Rail Applications

The feasibility and component cost of hydrogen rail refueling infrastructure is examined. Example reference stations can inform future studies on components and systems specifically for hydrogen rail refueling facilities. All of the 5 designs considered assumed the bulk storage of liquid hydrogen on-site, from which either gaseous or liquid hydrogen would be dispensed. The first design was estimated to refuel 10 multiple unit trains per day, each train containing 260 kg of gaseous hydrogen at 350 bar on-board. The second base design targeted the refueling of 50 passenger locomotives, each with 400 kg of gaseous hydrogen on-board at 350 bar. Variations from this basic design were made to consider the effect of two different filling times, two different hydrogen compression methods, and two different station design approaches. For each design variation, components were sized, approximate costs were estimated for major components, and physical layouts were created. For both gaseous hydrogen-dispensing base designs, the design of direct-fill using a cryopump design was the lowest cost due to the high cost of the cascade storage system and gas compressor. The last three base designs all assumed that liquid hydrogen was dispensed into tender cars for freight locomotives that required 7,500 kg of liquid hydrogen, and the three different designs assumed that 5, 50, or 200 tender cars were refueled every day. The total component costs are very different for each design, because each design has a very different dispensing capacity. The total component cost for these three designs are driven by the cost of the liquid hydrogen tank; additionally, delivering that much liquid hydrogen to the refueling facility may not be practical. Many of the designs needed the use of multiple evaporators, compressors, and cryopumps operating in parallel to meet required flow rates. In the future, the components identified here can be improved and scaled-up to better fit the needs of heavy-duty refueling facilities. This study provides basic feasibility and first-order design guidance for hydrogen refueling facilities serving emerging rail applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Massively parallel and universal approximation of nonlinear functions using diffractive processors

Nonlinear computation is essential for a wide range of information processing tasks, yet implementing nonlinear functions using optical systems remains a challenge due to the weak and power-intensive nature of optical nonlinearities. Overcoming this limitation without relying on nonlinear optical materials could unlock unprecedented opportunities for ultrafast and parallel optical computing systems. Here, we demonstrate that large-scale nonlinear computation can be performed using linear optics through optimized diffractive processors composed of passive phase-only surfaces. In this framework, the input variables of nonlinear functions are encoded into the phase of an optical wavefront—e.g., via a spatial light modulator (SLM)—and transformed by an optimized diffractive structure with spatially varying point-spread functions to yield output intensities that approximate a large set of unique nonlinear functions–all in parallel. We provide proof establishing that this architecture serves as a universal function approximator for an arbitrary set of bandlimited nonlinear functions, also covering wavelength-multiplexed nonlinear functions as well as multi-variate and complex-valued functions that are all-optically cascadable. Our analysis also indicates the successful approximation of typical nonlinear activation functions commonly used in neural networks, including the sigmoid, tanh, ReLU (rectified linear unit), and softplus. We numerically demonstrate the parallel computation of one million distinct nonlinear functions, accurately executed at wavelength-scale spatial density at the output of a diffractive optical processor. Furthermore, we experimentally validated this framework using in situ optical learning and approximated 35 unique nonlinear functions in a single shot using a compact setup consisting of an SLM and an image sensor. These results establish diffractive optical processors as a scalable platform for massively parallel universal nonlinear function approximation, paving the way for new capabilities in analog optical computing based on linear materials.

Rahman, Md Sadman Sakib [University of California,↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Final Report

The Washington State Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis overcomes the exploration challenges posed by dense vegetation, glacial deposits, and extreme precipitation. The geothermal play-fairways we target are locations where heat, permeability, and saturated porosity are present in sufficient volume to provide adequate heat exchange at depths accessible by modern drilling technology. The three study areas lie along the Cascade Range magmatic arc and are near Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, and the Wind River Valley. The seven-year project is divided into three phases. In Phase 1 we build on a previous statewide assessment of geothermal resources and develop an initial modeling approach. The results are a series of favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps for three targeted study areas. Based on these initial results, we collect new geologic and geophysical data to further refine our modeling and reduce exploration uncertainty in Phase 2. We improve the modeling method to handle the new data and update the favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps. We also update the conceptual geothermal resource models. In Phase 3 we validate our modeling approach by drilling two temperature-gradient holes and collecting and analyzing core, image logs, and new geochemistry. Our modeling approach improves on an earlier statewide method through a more-rigorous and detailed assessment of heat and permeability. Permeability potential is assessed through geomechanical modeling of the deformation that can generate and maintain reservoir porosity and permeability. Metrics to inform heat potential include temperature-gradient wells, which are sparse in Washington; proximity of Quaternary volcanic vents and young intrusive rock; spring temperature; and reservoir temperature inferred from geothermometry. We weight the individual components using an expert-guided approach known as the Analytical Hierarchy Process. During Phase 2 we also develop a fluid-filled fracture model, and an infrastructure model that helps to delineate areas which are more favorable for geothermal development based on proximity to transmission lines, elevation, land ownership and use restrictions, and availability of process water. New geologic and geophysical data is collected during Phase 2 in each of our three main study areas. At Mount Baker and north of Mount St. Helens we conduct 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and lidar analysis to better constrain the location and character of surface faults; detailed mapping in the Wind River Valley was completed just prior to the start of this project. Ages of intrusive rocks are determined with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, though all of our samples are Miocene or older. We collect ground based gravity observations (a total of 1,580 new stations) in all of our study areas and ground-based magnetic lines (a total of 93 km) at Mount Baker. These data are combined with existing gravity and aeromagnetic data and used to constrain fault locations and geometry. Two to three cross sections are constructed at each study area using the mapped surface geology and forward-modeling of the gravity and magnetic data; these cross sections form the basis for our updated conceptual models. We collect magnetotelluric surveys at Mount Baker and Mount St. Helens and these data are inverted to form a resistivity model from the surface to about 10 km depth; each model shows conductive zones that can be interpreted as upwelling geothermal fluids. At Mount St. Helens we deploy a passive seismic array and use the newly detected events to refine the location of the Saint Helens seismic zone. We also employ ambient-noise tomography to develop a detailed seismic-velocity model for the study area and use this model to help constrain our cross sections and conceptual model. Based on the new data collected during Phase 2—and our updated models—we develop a campaign of temperature-gradient holes and core analysis to validate our modeling in Phase 3. Drill hole MB76-31 is located near Little Park Creek, 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker, and is 1,471 ft deep. About 410 ft of core from the lower portion of the hole—and image logs from ~175 ft below ground surface to the bottom—are collected and analyzed. Water samples are collected and processed for geothermometry. Drill hole MSH17-24 is located along upper Schultz Creek, 16 km north-northeast of Mount St. Helens and has core from 470 ft to the bottom at 1,053 ft. We did not collect image logs due to borehole stability concerns, but water samples are collected and analyzed for geothermometry. Repeat temperature-gradient measurements are made at both sites and thermal conductivity is measured from core samples. At MB76-31, the equilibrated temperature gradient of 64°C/km and calculated heat flow of 141–159 mW/m 2 is more than twice the regional average. Detailed mapping and analysis of the core, coupled with correlation to the image logs, indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions of high permeability. Because the site has high favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. At site MSH17-24, the equilibrated temperature gradient of ~15°C/km and calculated heat flow of 41–43 mW/m 2 are similar to regional. Geochemical analysis of the water samples indicates a meteoric source without any geothermal component. Detailed outcrop-based mapping of fault exposures near the drill site and analysis of image logs from nearby boreholes indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions. Because the site has low favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. Together, the two sites provide a reasonably positive validation of the Phase 2 modeling and should encourage future use of this modeling approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate (Workshop Report)

Mountainous systems cover approximately 23% of Earth’s land and are distributed across all continents. They can capture and store atmospheric moisture that is then cycled through the terrestrial surface and subsurface system, released to downstream communities, and cycled back to the atmosphere. Mountain hydroclimate—characterized by steep gradients, geological, ecological, and biogeochemical diversity—is influenced by topographic forcing and elevated warming and susceptible to large subseasonal to multidecadal variability and rapid changes. Terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles also experience cascading effects from global warming impacts, such as multidecadal declines in mountain snowpack, longer growing seasons, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts and wildfires. However, little is known about the effects of these impacts and their feedbacks on climate systems and surface-subsurface compartments. Also unknown are the full implications of changing hydroclimate and extreme events on hydro biogeochemical cycles across atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems in mountain regions and beyond. This knowledge gap is critical, given human reliance on mountain systems for stable water supply and quality. Mountain systems’ increasing vulnerability to climate change and human perturbations motivates the need to improve understanding of integrated mountain hydroclimate (IMHC) systems and their feedbacks and impacts on humans across scales. However, due to large heterogeneity and strong gradients, coupled natural-human processes in mountain regions present significant challenges for observations, modeling, predictions, and projections. Motivated by gaps in mountain hydroclimate understanding, observations, and modeling and the need for credible projections of future changes, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program organized a virtual workshop on “Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate.” Sponsored by BER’s Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD), the workshop aimed to inform and catalyze EESSD’s growing interests in enhancing predictive understanding of IMHC. Organizers structured the workshop to identify (1) knowledge gaps, (2) observational and modeling challenges, (3) short-term (1 to 3 years) and long-term (10 years and beyond) research opportunities, and (4) strategies for fostering collaboration and coordination. To address the outstanding challenges of IMHC, the workshop included two sessions organized by disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and crosscutting science topics. The disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics focused on essential IMHC elements: atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems and their interactions. Breakout sessions on disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics facilitated identification of crosscutting topics and central emerging themes. Session 1 focused on connecting existing DOE investments to accelerate progress related to scientific challenges in understanding mountain hydroclimate. In Session 2, participants further explored key Session 1 takeaways through the lens of multiagency collaborations and coordination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN Global Standardized Categorical Exploration Datasets for Magmatic Plays

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), weights needed to be developed for use in the weighted sum of the different favorability index models produced from geoscientific exploration datasets. This was done using two different approaches: one based on expert opinions, and one based on statistical learning. This GDR submission includes the datasets used to produce the statistical learning-based weights. While expert opinions allow us to include more nuanced information in the weights, expert opinions are subject to human bias. Data-centric or statistical approaches help to overcome these potential human biases by focusing on and drawing conclusions from the data alone. The drawback is that, to apply these types of approaches, a dataset is needed. Therefore, we attempted to build comprehensive standardized datasets mapping anomalies in each exploration dataset to each component of each play. This data was gathered through a literature review focused on magmatic hydrothermal plays along with well-characterized areas where superhot or supercritical conditions are thought to exist. Datasets were assembled for all three play types, but the hydrothermal dataset is the least complete due to its relatively low priority. For each known or assumed resource, the dataset states what anomaly in each exploration dataset is associated with each component of the system. The data is only a semi-quantitative, where values are either high, medium, or low, relative to background levels. In addition, the dataset has significant gaps, as not every possible exploration dataset has been collected and analyzed at every known or suspected geothermal resource area, in the context of all possible play types. The following training sites were used to assemble this dataset: - Conventional magmatic hydrothermal: Akutan (from AK PFA), Oregon Cascades PFA, Glass Buttes OR, Mauna Kea (from HI PFA), Lanai (from HI PFA), Mt St Helens Shear Zone (from WA PFA), Wind River Valley (From WA PFA), Mount Baker (from WA PFA). - Superhot EGS: Newberry (EGS demonstration project), Coso (EGS demonstration project), Geysers (EGS demonstration project), Eastern Snake River Plain (EGS demonstration project), Utah FORGE, Larderello, Kakkonda, Taupo Volcanic Zone, Acoculco, Krafla. - Supercritical: Coso, Geysers, Salton Sea, Larderello, Los Humeros, Taupo Volcanic Zone, Krafla, Reyjanes, Hengill. **Disclaimer: Treat the supercritical fluid anomalies with skepticism. They are based on assumptions due to the general lack of confirmed supercritical fluid encounters and samples at the sites included in this dataset, at the time of assembling the dataset. The main assumption was that the supercritical fluid in a given geothermal system has shared properties with the hydrothermal fluid, which may not be the case in reality. Once the datasets were assembled, principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to each. PCA is an unsupervised statistical learning technique, meaning that labels are not required on the data, that summarized the directions of variance in the data. This approach was chosen because our labels are not certain, i.e., we do not know with 100% confidence that superhot resources exist at all the assumed positive areas. We also do not have data for any known non-geothermal areas, meaning that it would be challenging to apply a supervised learning technique. In order to generate weights from the PCA, an analysis of the PCA loading values was conducted. PCA loading values represent how much a feature is contributing to each principal component, and therefore the overall variance in the data.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Low-Power, Flexible Sensor Arrays with Solderless Board-to-Board Connectors for Monitoring Soil Deformation and Temperature

Landslides are a global and frequent natural hazard, affecting many communities and infrastructure networks. Technological solutions are needed for long-term, large-scale condition monitoring of infrastructure earthworks or natural slopes. However, current instruments for slope stability monitoring are often costly, require a complex installation process and/or data processing schemes, or have poor resolution. Wireless sensor networks comprising low-power, low-cost sensors have been shown to be a crucial part of landslide early warning systems. Here, we present the development of a novel sensing approach that uses linear arrays of three-axis accelerometers for monitoring changes in sensor inclination, and thus the surrounding soil’s deformation. By combining these deformation measurements with depth-resolved temperature measurements, we can link our data to subsurface thermal–hydrological regimes where relevant. In this research, we present a configuration of cascaded I2C sensors that (i) have ultra-low power consumption and (ii) enable an adjustable probe length. From an electromechanical perspective, we developed a novel board-to-board connection method that enables narrow, semi-flexible sensor arrays and a streamlined assembly process. The low-cost connection method relies on a specific FR4 printed circuit board design that allows board-to-board press fitting without using electromechanical components or solder connections. The sensor assembly is placed in a thin, semi-flexible tube (inner diameter 6.35 mm) that is filled with an epoxy compound. The resulting sensor probe is connected to an AA-battery-powered data logger with wireless connectivity. We characterize the system’s electromechanical properties and investigate the accuracy of deformation measurements. Our experiments, performed with probes up to 1.8 m long, demonstrate long-term connector stability, as well as probe mechanical flexibility. Furthermore, our accuracy analysis indicates that deformation measurements can be performed with a 0.390 mm resolution and a 95% confidence interval of ±0.73 mm per meter of probe length. This research shows the suitability of low-cost accelerometer arrays for distributed soil stability monitoring. In comparison with emerging low-cost measurements of surface displacement, our approach provides depth-resolved deformation, which can inform about shallow sliding surfaces.

deformation monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗