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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗

NASA NTRS2006

Hydrogen and Storage Initiatives at the NASA JSC White Sands Test Facility

NASA WSTF Hydrogen Activities: a) Aerospace Test; b) System Certification & Verification; c) Component, System, & Facility Hazard Assessment; d) Safety Training Technical Transfer: a) Development of Voluntary Consensus Standards and Practices; b) Support of National Hydrogen Infrastructure Development.

Maes, Miguel↗

NASA NTRS2016

Space-Based Detection of Missing Sulfur Dioxide Sources of Global Air Pollution

Sulfur dioxide is designated a criteria air contaminant (or equivalent) by virtually all developed nations. When released into the atmosphere, sulfur dioxide forms sulfuric acid and fine particulate matter, secondary pollutants that have significant adverse effects on human health, the environment and the economy. The conventional, bottom-up emissions inventories used to assess impacts, however, are often incomplete or outdated, particularly for developing nations that lack comprehensive emission reporting requirements and infrastructure. Here we present a satellite-based, global emission inventory for SO2 that is derived through a simultaneous detection, mapping and emission-quantifying procedure, and thereby independent of conventional information sources. We find that of the 500 or so large sources in our inventory, nearly 40 are not captured in leading conventional inventories. These missing sources are scattered throughout the developing world-over a third are clustered around the Persian Gulf-and add up to 7 to 14 Tg of SO2 yr(exp -1), or roughly 6-12% of the global anthropogenic source. Our estimates of national total emissions are generally in line with conventional numbers, but for some regions, and for SO2 emissions from volcanoes, discrepancies can be as large as a factor of three or more. We anticipate that our inventory will help eliminate gaps in bottom-up inventories, independent of geopolitical borders and source types.

OMI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Extreme Soil Moisture Patterns over the Sahel during the 2020 Growing Season

The African Sahel is an ecologically and climatically sensitive region, and thus is a valuable test case for examination of climate extremes. Above-average rainfall during the 2020 growing season (June-October) led to flooding in the West, Central and East Sahel, with implications for infrastructure, agriculture and disease outbreaks. In this study, we evaluate soil moisture patterns in the region during 2020 to assess and quantify the extremeness of the event. The primary tool is the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 surface soil moisture data. Daily, monthly, and seasonal anomalies are computed relative to SMAP’s long-term mean (2015-2021). Additional comparisons are made with longer-time-series data sets, including surface soil moisture from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2(MERRA-2; 1981-present) and precipitation from the African Rainfall Climatology, Version 2 (ARC2; 1983-present).Possible drivers of the extreme wet event are examined, including potential links to the concurrent 2020-21 La Niña event. Finally, we explore the connections between the extreme soil moisture and vector-borne disease outbreaks in the region in2020, namely, Rift Valley Fever in Mauritania and Chikungunya in Chad.

Soil Moisture↗

NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction

While urban areas like New York City and its surrounding metropolitan region are key drivers of climate change through emissions of greenhouse gases, cities are also significantly impacted by climate shifts, both chronic changes and extreme events. These are already affecting the New York metropolitan region, including the five boroughs of New York City through higher temperatures, more intense precipitation, and higher sea levels, and will increasingly do so in the coming decades. The City of New York has embarked on a flexible adaptation pathway (i.e., strategies that can evolve through time as climate risk assessment, evaluation of adaptation strategies, and monitoring continues) to respond to climate change challenges. This entails significant programs to develop resilience in communities and critical infrastructure to observed and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level. The first NPCC Report laid out the risk management framing for the city and region via flexible adaptation pathways. The second New York City Panel on Climate Change Report (NPCC2) developed the “climate projections of record” that are currently being used by the City of New York in its resilience programs . The NPCC3 2019 Report co-generates new tools and methods for the next generation of climate risk assessments and implementation of region-wide resilience. Co-generation is an interactive process by which stakeholders and scientists work together to produce climate change information that is targeted to decision-making needs. These tools and methods can be used to observe, project, and map climate extremes; monitor risks and responses; and engage with communities to develop effective programs. They are especially important at “transformation points” in the adaptation process when large changes in the structure and function of physical, ecological, and social systems of the city and region are undertaken.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS1995

Urban remote sensing applications: TIMS observations of the City of Scottsdale

A research program has been initiated between Arizona State University and the City of Scottsdale, Arizona to study the potential applications of TIMS (Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner) data for urban scene classification, desert environmental assessment, and change detection. This program is part of a long-term effort to integrate remote sensing observations into state and local planning activities to improve decision making and future planning. Specific test sites include a section of the downtown Scottsdale region that has been mapped in very high detail as part of a pilot program to develop an extensive GIS database. This area thus provides excellent time history of the evolution of the city infrastructure, such as the timing and composition of street repavement. A second area of study includes the McDowell intensive study by state and local agencies to assess potential sites for urban development as well as preservation. These activities are of particular relevance as the Phoenix metropolitan area undergoes major expansion into the surrounding desert areas. The objectives of this study in urban areas are aimed at determining potential applications of TIMS data for classifying and assessing land use and surface temperatures. Land use centers on surface impermeability studies for storm runoff assessment and pollution control. These studies focus on determining the areal abundance of urban vegetation and undeveloped soil. Highly experimental applications include assessment and monitoring of pavement condition. Temperature studies focus on determining swimming pool area and temperature for use in monitoring evaporating and urban water consumption. These activities are of particular relevance as the Phoenix metropolitan area undergoes major expansion into the surrounding desert area.

Christensen, Philip R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Assessment of potential benefits from lunar/Mars propellant production for support of human exploration of the moon and Mars

This paper describes an assessment of potential benefits offered through use of lunar/Mars in situ propellant production to support manned missions to the moon and Mars. Resources available at each location and processing options for their extraction are discussed. Key infrastructure and support systems needed to sustain the propellant production operation and to deliver the propellants from their point of origin to the point of application are defined. The analysis focuses on reductions of earth launched mass over the course of multiple missions to assess the potential savings offered. Initial results show the impact of requirements for sustaining in situ propellant production systems on benefits offered during steady-state operation.

Jacobs, Mark K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

NC Space Grant Report

During the summer of 2018 I supported the Safety & Mission Assurance Directorate (SMA) and Operations Support Division (QA-20) at Stennis Space Center. The mission of the SMA team is to prove safety, risk, reliability, independent assessments, configuration management and quality assurance guidance, and services for all NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) programs, facilities, and supporting infrastructure. The office actively participates and contributes to the Agency-level Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) effort. Over the course of the Summer I participated in three projects. Two of them were focused around Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the third focused on relief valves for their E-1 engine test stand.

Torres, David↗

NASA NTRS2022

Preliminary Characterization of Unmanned Air Cargo Routes Using Current Cargo Operations Survey

The introduction of regional cargo unmanned aircraft systems into the National Airspace System is anticipated within the coming years. Because they are remotely piloted, these aircraft are expected to utilize increasing aircraft automation and autonomy, require special infrastructure accommodations for navigation, communication, command and control and potentially need special treatment from air traffic control. In order to assess the accessibility and impacts of these operations across the national airspace, this preliminary study investigates current and estimated future demand for air cargo operations in the continental United States. Air cargo demand is broken down by aircraft type and airport categories to produce a rough nation-wide classification of cargo operations. Then, the state of Texas is investigated as a focus region, where the impacts of regional cargo unmanned aircraft systems on the airspace are investigated in further detail. The potential technologies that can assist in regional cargo unmanned aircraft system accessibility are defined at airports across the focus region. A single airport, Fort Worth Alliance, is highlighted to discuss airport-level statistics. Finally, a qualitative classification of airports by the type of cargo operations is suggested.

Unmanned Aircraft↗

NASA NTRS2022

Preliminary Characterization of Unmanned Air Cargo Routes Using Current Cargo Operations Survey

Unmanned Aircraft, Unmanned Aircraft Systems, UAS,↗

NASA NTRS2007

Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cooperative Upper Class E Airspace: Concept of Operations and Simulation Development for Operational Feasibility Assessment

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) is a novel community-based traffic management concept incorporating the FAA, NASA, and industry’s collaborative efforts to support safe, efficient, and scalable future operations in the airspace near and above 60,000 ft. The concept complements Air Traffic Control (ATC) infrastructure and Air Traffic Management (ATM) services by facilitating cooperative operations with ETM provided services. This paper presents an initial Cooperative Separation Management (CSM) concept for High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) vehicles’ conflict detection and resolution during their extended operations. A prototype simulation platform has been developed to visualize and assess the concept during demonstrations to stakeholders. Further development plans for simulations and the CSM concept are discussed.

upper Class E airspace↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cooperative Upper Class E Airspace: Concept of Operations and Simulation Development for Operational Feasibility Assessment

upper Class E airspace↗

NASA NTRS1999

Broadband Satellite Technologies and Markets Assessed

The current usage of broadband (data rate greater than 64 kilobits per second (kbs)) for multimedia network computer applications is increasing, and the need for network communications technologies and systems to support this use is also growing. Satellite technology will likely be an important part of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) and the Global Information Infrastructure (GII) in the next decade. Several candidate communications technologies that may be used to carry a portion of the increased data traffic have been reviewed, and estimates of the future demand for satellite capacity have been made. A study was conducted by the NASA Lewis Research Center to assess the satellite addressable markets for broadband applications. This study effort included four specific milestones: (1) assess the changing nature of broadband applications and their usage, (2) assess broadband satellite and terrestrial technologies, (3) estimate the size of the global satellite addressable market from 2000 to 2010, and (4) identify how the impact of future technology developments could increase the utility of satellite-based transport to serve this market.

Wallett, Thomas M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Leveraging Terrestrial Industry for Utilization of Space Resources

NASA's Journey to Mars: Pioneering Next Steps in Space Exploration released in October of 2015 states that NASA is working toward the capability to work, operate, and sustainably live safely beyond Earth. To progress from our current "Earth-Reliant" approach to exploration and eventually become "Earth Independent", we need to first identify resources in space and then learn to use and harvest them to minimize logistics from Earth, reduce costs, and enable sustainable and affordable space transportation and surface operations. Known as In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), the collection and conversion of space resources into products such as propellants, fuel cell reactants, and life support consumables can greatly reduce the mass, cost, and risk of space exploration. Also, the ability to perform civil engineering, construction, and manufacturing at sites of exploration can also allow for increased crew safety and sustainable growth in critical infrastructure. Much of what NASA wants to do on the Moon and Mars with respect to harnessing and utilizing space resources has been performed and perfected on Earth over the centuries. While minimizing mass and operating in the vacuum of space may be unique challenges to NASA, both terrestrial industry and NASA face many of the same challenges associated with operating in severe environments, minimizing maintenance and logistics, maximizing performance per unit mass and volume, performing remote and autonomous operations, and integrating hardware from many vendors and countries. In the end, both NASA and terrestrial industry need to obtain a return on the investment for the development and deployment of these capabilities. This paper will first examine what is ISRU and what are the space resources of interest. The paper will than discuss what are NASA's approach, life cycle, and economic considerations for implementing ISRU. The paper will outline the site and infrastructure needs associated with a phased implementation of ISRU into human missions to the Moon and Mars. The paper will than assess what technologies and operations from terrestrial industries are relevant and synergistic with ISRU (from prospecting to product storage), and what challenges and similarities between the two can be exploited. Lastly, the paper will end with a discussion on where do we go from here for industry and NASA to collaborate.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗

NASA NTRS1999

Aerospace Systems Design in NASA's Collaborative Engineering Environment

Past designs of complex aerospace systems involved an environment consisting of collocated design teams with project managers, technical discipline experts, and other experts (e.g. manufacturing and systems operations). These experts were generally qualified only on the basis of past design experience and typically had access to a limited set of integrated analysis tools. These environments provided less than desirable design fidelity, often lead to the inability of assessing critical programmatic and technical issues (e.g., cost risk, technical impacts), and generally derived a design that was not necessarily optimized across the entire system. The continually changing, modern aerospace industry demands systems design processes that involve the best talent available (no matter where it resides) and access to the best design and analysis tools. A solution to these demands involves a design environment referred to as collaborative engineering. The collaborative engineering environment evolving within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is a capability that enables the Agency's engineering infrastructure to interact and use the best state-of-the-art tools and data across organizational boundaries. Using collaborative engineering, the collocated team is replaced with an interactive team structure where the team members are geographically distributed and the best engineering talent can be applied to the design effort regardless of physical location. In addition, a more efficient, higher quality design product is delivered by bringing together the best engineering talent with more up-to-date design and analysis tools. These tools are focused on interactive, multidisciplinary design and analysis with emphasis on the complete life cycle of the system, and they include nontraditional, integrated tools for life cycle cost estimation and risk assessment. NASA has made substantial progress during the last two years in developing a collaborative engineering environment. NASA is planning to use this collaborative engineering infrastructure to provide better aerospace systems life cycle design and analysis, which includes analytical assessment of the technical and programmatic aspects of a system from "cradle to grave." This paper describes the recent NASA developments in the area of collaborative engineering, the benefits (realized and anticipated) of using the developed capability, and the long-term plans for implementing this capability across the Agency.

Monell, Donald W.↗