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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

STS-1 orbital trajectory reconstruction using unmodelled acceleration estimation

A postflight trajectory reconstruction and analysis were conducted in order to determine the effects of unmodeled thrusting on the Space Shuttle Orbiter, to generate representative thrusting uncertainties for input to error analyses, and to evaluate the accuracy of the Ancillary trajectory data product and real-time vectors. The methods of selecting appropriate data arcs, time placement of compensation forces, limitations of the orbit determination process, and methods of evaluating solutions obtained from various force combinations are presented. It is shown that the estimation of forces to compensate for uncoupled attitude maneuvers and attitude hold maintenance thrusting significantly improves the postflight reconstruction of Space Shuttle Orbiter trajectories. A reduction of measurement residual statistics due to dynamic model uncertainties yields improved accuracy for postflight orbit determination.

Lacarna, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Very High Resolution Tree Cover Mapping for Continental United States using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Uncertainties in input land cover estimates contribute to a significant bias in modeled above ground biomass (AGB) and carbon estimates from satellite-derived data. The resolution of most currently used passive remote sensing products is not sufficient to capture tree canopy cover of less than ca. 10-20 percent, limiting their utility to estimate canopy cover and AGB for trees outside of forest land. In our study, we created a first of its kind Continental United States (CONUS) tree cover map at a spatial resolution of 1-m for the 2010-2012 epoch using the USDA NAIP imagery to address the present uncertainties in AGB estimates. The process involves different tasks including data acquisition ingestion to pre-processing and running a state-of-art encoder-decoder based deep convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm for automatically generating a tree non-tree map for almost a quarter million scenes. The entire processing chain including generation of the largest open source existing aerial satellite image training database was performed at the NEX supercomputing and storage facility. We believe the resulting forest cover product will substantially contribute to filling the gaps in ongoing carbon and ecological monitoring research and help quantifying the errors and uncertainties in derived products.

High Resolution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geo- and reactor antineutrino sensitivity at THEIA

We present the sensitivity of the THEIA experiment to low-energy geo- and reactor antineutrinos. For this study, we consider one of the possible proposed designs, a 17.8-ktonne fiducial volume THEIA-25 detector filled with water-based liquid scintillator placed at Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF). We demonstrate THEIA’s sensitivity to measure the geo- and reactor antineutrinos via inverse-beta decay interactions after one year of data taking with $11.9 × 10^{32}$ free target protons. Considering all uncertainties on input throughout the whole analysis chain, the expected number of geo- and reactor antineutrinos is $220^{+30}_{–24}$ (stats+syst) and $168^{+26}_{–24}$ (stat+sys), respectively, after one year of data taking. The corresponding expected fit precision of a sole experiment is evaluated at 8.7% and 10.1%, respectively. We also demonstrate the sensitivity towards fitting individual Th and U contributions, with best fit values of $N_{\text{Th}} = 40^{+26}_{–22}$ (stat+sys) and $N_\text{U}=180^{+30}_{–24}$ (stat+sys). Finally, from the fit results of individual Th and U contributions, we evaluate the mantle signal to be $S_{\text{mantle}} = 9.3±[5.2,5.4]$ NIU (stat+sys). This was obtained assuming a full-range positive correlation $(ρ_c ϵ[0,1])$ between Th and U, and the projected uncertainties on the crust contributions of 8.3% (Th) and 7.0% (U).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for SPERT III E-core reactivity measurement benchmarking

The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) III E-core experiment is important because it provides critical data on reactor behavior under significant reactivity insertions, which is essential for validating computer simulations and ensuring the safety of modern light water reactors. Its design similarities to contemporary reactors make it a valuable resource for understanding and mitigating extreme hazards in nuclear operations. The current study details the application of formal parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to a model of the SPERT-III E-core model for zero power reactivity benchmarking. Additionally, the reactivity impact from various modeling assumptions is quantified. Overall, an conservative estimate for an uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$ of $\pm$1257 was observed. A less conservative, more realistic, uncertainty estimate of $\pm$1096 pcm can be justified by the potential for various parametric uncertainties to become negligible when sampled independently across the ~1400 pins in the core. The experimental results fall within both of these uncertainty bounds. Standardized regression coefficient as well as Sobol indices are used to identify the guide tube thicknesses as the primary contributors to the uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$. Overall, this study provides information on how the uncertainties in input parameters and modeling methods impact simulated k$_{\text{eff}}$ values and can be used to aid model building efforts for future code validation with the SPERT-III E-core experiment.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Comparison of Different Global Information Sources Used in Surface Radiative Flux Calculation: Radiative Properties of the Surface

Direct estimates of surface radiative fluxes that resolve regional and weather-scale variabilty over the whole globe with reasonable accuracy have only become possible with the advent of extensive global, mostly satellite, datasets within the past couple of decades. The accuracy of these fluxes, estimated to be about 10-15 W per square meter is largely limited by the accuracy of the input datasets. The leading uncertainties in the surface fluxes are no longer predominantly induced by clouds but are now as much associated with uncertainties in the surface and near-surface atmospheric properties. This study presents a fuller, more quantitative evaluation of the uncertainties for the surface albedo and emissivity and surface skin temperatures by comparing the main available global datasets from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product, the NASA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer project, NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Image project. The datasets are, in practice, treated as an ensemble of realizations of the actual climate such that their differences represent an estimate of the uncertainty in their measurements because we do not possess global truth datasets for these quantities. The results are globally representative and may be taken as a generalization of our previous ISCCP-based uncertainty estimates for the input datasets. Surface properties have the primary role in determining the surface upward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) flux. From this study, the following conclusions are obtained. Although land surface albedos in the near near-infrared remain poorly constrained (highly uncertain), they do not cause too much error in total surface SW fluxes; the more subtle regional and seasonal variations associated with vegetation and snow are still on doubt. The uncertainty of the broadband black-sky SW albedo for land surface from this study is about 7%, which can easily induce 5-10 W per square meter uncertainty in (upwelling) surface SW flux estimates. Even though available surface (broadband) LW emissivity datasets differ significantly (3%-5% uncertainty), this disagreement is confined to wavelengths greater than 20 micrometers so that there is little practical effect (1-3 W per square meters) on the surface upwelling LW fluxes. The surface skin temperature is one of two leading factors that cause problems with surface LW fluxes. Even though the differences among the various datasets are generally only 2-4 K, this can easily cause 10-15 W per square meter uncertainty in calculated surface (upwelling) LW fluxes. Significant improvements could be obtained for surface LW flux calculations by improving the retrievals of (in order of decreasing importance): (1) surface skin temperature, (2) surface air and near-surface-layer temperature, (3) column precipitable water amount and (4) broadband emissivity. And for surface SW fluxes, improvements could be obtained (excluding improved cloud treatment) by improving the retrievals of (1) aerosols (from our sensitivity studies but not discussed in this work), and (2) surface (black-sky) albedo, of which, NIR part of the spectrum has much larger uncertainty.

Zhang, Yuanchong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States

Economic damages from riverine flooding are expected to grow because of climate change. Yet, there are few 7 studies analyzing flooding damages in the U.S. that clearly measure the roles of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability 8 separately and locally. A lack of this knowledge prohibits spatially detailed predictions of future damages. By being 9 able to separate into these three risk factors, we provide all necessary inputs for uncertainty analysis of the flooding-10 damages forecasts that can incorporate new predictive scenarios for each component. To analyze the flooding risk 11 factors of non-coastal counties within the contiguous U.S. between 1999-2018, we gathered information on (1) 12 property and human damages from flooding, (2) maximum annual river discharge, (3) the number of housing units 13 and the years in which they were built, and (4) the incidence of flooding events. We used the method of trimmed 14 least absolute deviated and trimmed least square estimators to obtain the individual impact of hazard, exposure, and 15 vulnerability in the context of censored flooding damages for panel data. The resulting estimates indicate that 16 exposure has been the main driver of flooding risk for most counties in the U.S. Here, we use these estimates to describe 17 the main source of flooding risk for non-coastal counties for the 1999-2018 period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of cellular automata grain structure predictions for high solidification rates

Understanding as-solidified grain structure development during constrained (G 0) alloy solidification conditions is a necessary component of understanding the larger process-microstructure relationships during additive manufacturing (AM) processing. This study applies a cellular automata (CA) model, for static solidification velocities and thermal gradients on the order of those expected in AM melt pools, to investigate grain shape development across ranges of input parameters governing temperature field evolution, nucleation, and growth. Variation in nucleated grain shape from columnar to equiaxed as a function of thermal gradient and nucleation density is modeled with CA and verified against the established transition model of Hunt and Gaumann. Furthermore, while thermal conditions and nucleation density are shown to have the largest roles on microstructure development, the sensitivity of grain structure was very unevenly distributed across parameter space. In particular, it was found that microstructure is very sensitive to mean nucleation undercooling and the interfacial response function in process space regimes near grain structure transitions, but entirely controlled by a combination of thermal gradient, solidification velocity, and nucleation density away from such transitions. The understanding of grain shape sensitivity obtained through CA modeling, particularly at large thermal gradient and nucleation density, will be necessary for accurate microstructure prediction during the extreme processing conditions and large input parameter uncertainty common to AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fast ion transport by sawtooth instability in the presence of ICRF-NBI synergy in JET plasmas

JET experiments have shown that the three-ion scenarios using waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) is an efficient way to build fast ion population through beam ion acceleration by radio frequency (RF) waves. Here, such a heating scheme is applied to plasmas with at least two thermal ion species. Analysis of mixed discharges with complex heating schemes requires a workflow that allows to model thermal and fast ion transport consistently. This paper is dedicated to modelling of a mixed plasma discharge with significant fraction of fast ions and contributes to development of fast ion transport models. For interpretive analysis with the TRANSP code a JET hydrogen-deuterium (HD) plasma discharge with neutral beam injection (NBI) and ICRF heating has been chosen. The task is complicated by NBI-ICRF synergy and plasma magnetohydrodynamic activity, like sawtooth crashes. D beam ions accelerated by RF waves form a high energy tail in fast ion distribution. Significant difference between the neutron rate computed by TRANSP and measured one is observed if the same diffusivity for electrons and ions is assumed. Sensitivity studies show that uncertainties in input plasma parameters and thermal ion transport models are crucial for modelling mixed plasma discharges and increased D transport is required to reach the plasma composition consistent with diagnostic measurements at the plasma edge. Fast ion redistribution by a sawtooth instability is characterised by non-resonant transport due to reconnection of magnetic field lines and resonant transport caused by resonance interaction between the instability and fast ions. With ORBIT simulations it has been shown that resonant interaction strongly affects fast ions of high energies, like beam ions accelerated by RF waves and fusion products. For the considered case, fast ion profiles simulated by ORBIT remain peaked after the sawtooth crashes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulating neutron stars with a flexible enthalpy-based equation of state parametrization in sp ECTRE

Numerical simulations of neutron star mergers represent an essential step toward interpreting the full complexity of multimessenger observations and constraining the properties of supranuclear matter. Currently, simulations are limited by an array of factors, including computational performance and input physics uncertainties, such as the neutron star equation of state. In this work, we expand the range of nuclear phenomenology efficiently available to simulations by introducing a new analytic parametrization of cold, beta-equilibrated matter that is based on the relativistic enthalpy. Here we show that the new enthalpy parametrization can capture a range of nuclear behavior, including strong phase transitions. We implement the enthalpy parametrization in the spectre code, simulate isolated neutron stars, and compare performance to the commonly used spectral and polytropic parametrizations. We find comparable computational performance for nuclear models that are well represented by either parametrization, such as simple hadronic equations of state. We show that the enthalpy parametrization further allows us to simulate more complicated hadronic models or models with phase transitions that are inaccessible to current parametrizations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in-situ and remote sensing datasets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Two-dimensional finite-element temperature variance analysis

The finite element method is extended to thermal analysis by forming a variance analysis of temperature results so that the sensitivity of predicted temperatures to uncertainties in input variables is determined. The temperature fields within a finite number of elements are described in terms of the temperatures of vertices and the variational principle is used to minimize the integral equation describing thermal potential energy. A computer calculation yields the desired solution matrix of predicted temperatures and provides information about initial thermal parameters and their associated errors. Sample calculations show that all predicted temperatures are most effected by temperature values along fixed boundaries; more accurate specifications of these temperatures reduce errors in thermal calculations.

Heuser, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

Leonard, J. I.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Sensitivity of an atmospheric photochemistry model to chlorine perturbations including consideration of uncertainty propagation

Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.

Stolarski, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Space radiation shielding strategies and requirements for deep space missions

Methods for estimating crew exposure to radiation and for evaluating shield requirements for spacecraft equipment and crew are examined. The development status for deterministic space radiation transport computer codes and models of their nuclear interaction inputs, which are useful for estimating the composition and thickness of shield materials, is discussed. The relation between shield thickness and exposures is studied. Estimates of deep-space shield requirements are proposed. It is noted that an assessment of input parameter uncertainties reveals that a factor of 2 uncertainty in predicted dose equivalent could increase shield thickness by an order of magnitude of more.

Townsend, Lawrence W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

TOMS UV Algorithm: Problems and Enhancements

Satellite instruments provide global maps of surface ultraviolet (UV) irradiance by combining backscattered radiance measurements with radiative transfer models. The models are limited by uncertainties in input parameters of the atmosphere and the surface. We evaluate the effects of possible enhancements of the current Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) surface UV irradiance algorithm focusing on effects of diurnal variation of cloudiness and improved treatment of snow/ice. The emphasis is on comparison between the results of the current (version 1) TOMS UV algorithm and each of the changes proposed. We evaluate different approaches for improved treatment of pixel average cloud attenuation, with and without snow/ice on the ground. In addition to treating clouds based only on the measurements at the local time of the TOMS observations, the results from other satellites and weather assimilation models can be used to estimate attenuation of the incident UV irradiance throughout the day. A new method is proposed to obtain a more realistic treatment of snow covered terrain. The method is based on a statistical relation between UV reflectivity and snow depth. The new method reduced the bias between the TOMS UV estimations and ground-based UV measurements for snow periods. The improved (version 2) algorithm will be applied to re-process the existing TOMS UV data record (since 1978) and to the future satellite sensors (e.g., Quik/TOMS, GOME, OMI on EOS/Aura and Triana/EPIC).

Krotkov, Nickolay↗
NASA NTRS2004

Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

Unal, Resit↗