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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1996

Enhanced Water Vapor Absorption within Tropospheric Clouds: A Partial Explanation for Anomalous Absorption

Comparisons between solar flux measurements and predictions obtained from theoretical radiative transfer models indicate that most of these models underestimate the globally averaged solar energy absorbed by cloudy atmospheres by up to 25Wm&sup-2;.The origin of this anomalous absorption has not yet been established, but it has been attributed to a variety of sources including oversimplified or missing physical processes in the existing models, uncertainties in the input data, and even measurement errors. We used a sophisticated atmospheric radiative transfer model to provide improved constraints on the physical processes that contribute to the absorption of solar radiation by Earth's atmosphere. The results are described herein.

solar flux measurement water vapor absorption atmo↗

NASA NTRS2011

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

NASA NTRS2012

Usage of NASA's Near Real-Time Solar and Meteorological Data for Monitoring Building Energy Systems Using RETScreen International's Performance Analysis Module

This paper describes building energy system production and usage monitoring using examples from the new RETScreen Performance Analysis Module, called RETScreen Plus. The module uses daily meteorological (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind and solar, etc.) over a period of time to derive a building system function that is used to monitor building performance. The new module can also be used to target building systems with enhanced technologies. If daily ambient meteorological and solar information are not available, these are obtained over the internet from NASA's near-term data products that provide global meteorological and solar information within 3-6 days of real-time. The accuracy of the NASA data are shown to be excellent for this purpose enabling RETScreen Plus to easily detect changes in the system function and efficiency. This is shown by several examples, one of which is a new building at the NASA Langley Research Center that uses solar panels to provide electrical energy for building energy and excess energy for other uses. The system shows steady performance within the uncertainties of the input data. The other example involves assessing the reduction in energy usage by an apartment building in Sweden before and after an energy efficiency upgrade. In this case, savings up to 16% are shown.

Paul W Stackhouse, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Effect of Wind Speed on Aerosol Optical Depth over Remote Oceans, Based on Data from the Maritime Aerosol Network

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. The MAN archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we investigate correlations between ship-borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) and near-surface wind speed, either measured (onboard or from satellite) or modeled (NCEP). According to our analysis, wind speed influences columnar aerosol optical depth, although the slope of the linear regression between AOD and wind speed is not steep (approx. 0.004 - 0.005), even for strong winds over 10m/s. The relationships show significant scatter (correlation coefficients typically in the range 0.3 - 0.5); the majority of this scatter can be explained by the uncertainty on the input data. The various wind speed sources considered yield similar patterns. Results are in good agreement with the majority of previously published relationships between surface wind speed and ship-based or satellite-based AOD measurements. The basic relationships are similar for all the wind speed sources considered; however, the gradient of the relationship varies by around a factor of two depending on the wind data used

Smirnov, A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Asteroid↗

NASA NTRS2016

Hall Thruster Thermal Modeling and Test Data Correlation

The life of Hall Effect thrusters are primarily limited by plasma erosion and thermal related failures. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have recently completed development of a Hall thruster with specific emphasis to mitigate these limitations. Extending the operational life of Hall thursters makes them more suitable for some of NASA's longer duration interplanetary missions. This paper documents the thermal model development, refinement and correlation of results with thruster test data. Correlation was achieved by minimizing uncertainties in model input and recognizing the relevant parameters for effective model tuning. Throughout the thruster design phase the model was used to evaluate design options and systematically reduce component temperatures. Hall thrusters are inherently complex assemblies of high temperature components relying on internal conduction and external radiation for heat dispersion and rejection. System solutions are necessary in most cases to fully assess the benefits and/or consequences of any potential design change. Thermal model correlation is critical since thruster operational parameters can push some components/materials beyond their temperature limits. This thruster incorporates a state-of-the-art magnetic shielding system to reduce plasma erosion and to a lesser extend power/heat deposition. Additionally a comprehensive thermal design strategy was employed to reduce temperatures of critical thruster components (primarily the magnet coils and the discharge channel). Long term wear testing is currently underway to assess the effectiveness of these systems and consequently thruster longevity.

Hall thruster↗

NASA NTRS2022

MLtool: Universal Supervised Machine Learning Tool to Model Tabulated Data

Machine Learning (ML) is a subfield of Artificial Intelligence that gives computers the ability to learn from past data without being explicitly programmed. The predictive capabilities of ML models have already been used to facilitate several scientific breakthroughs. However, the practical application of ML is often limited due to the gaps in technical knowledge of its users. The common issue faced by many scientific researchers is the inability to choose the appropriate ML pipelines that are needed to treat real-world data, which is often sparse and noisy. To solve this problem, we have developed an automated Machine Learning tool (MLtool) that includes a set of ML algorithms and approaches to aid scientific researchers. The current version of MLtool is implemented as an object-oriented Python code that is easily extensible. It includes 44 different regression algorithms used to model data. MLtool helps users select the best model for their data, based on the scoring metrics used. Besides regression algorithms, MLtool also includes a suite of pre- and post-processing techniques such as missing value imputation, categorical variable encoding, input feature normalization, uncertainty quantification, exploratory data analysis (EDA), etc. MLtool was tested on several publicly available multi-dimensional data sets and was found capable of making accurate predictions.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2022

MLtool Python Code

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Classical Theories of Dendritic Growth Kinetics Applied to Nickel-Based Alloys

The solidification velocity in a model nickel-alloy single crystal during laser spot melting was recently characterized using synchrotron X-ray imaging. The measured solidification velocity was found to exceed the absolute stability threshold predicted by the Kurz-Giovanola-Trivedi (KGT) model. The discrepancies between the model and experiments motivate the further assessment of accurate material properties. This work quantifies the impact material property uncertainty has on model predictions of the absolute stability threshold velocities. Properties from the literature are reviewed and compared to those calculated using computational thermodynamics to provide uncertainty estimates on input properties to the KGT model. Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of each uncertain input property on the predicted threshold velocity. This work supports the understanding of the nickel-alloy solidification during powder bed fusion additive manufacturing and identifies the solidification material properties that are the most important to assess from first-principles computations and experiments.

Computational thermodynamics↗

NASA NTRS1966

Low level accelerometer test methods are investigated

Problems associated with testing accelerometers to an accuracy where the standard error is less than .0000001 g are centered around the elimination of uncertainties in the acceleration input to the accelerometer. By placing a test rig in free fall, the uncertainty in the earths gravity field can be eliminated.

Nelson, R. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Duct Propagation Models

This paper presents results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted to assess the relative merits of three duct propagation codes. Results from this study are intended to support identification of a "working envelope" within which to use the various approaches underlying these propagation codes. This investigation considers a segmented liner configuration that models the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, for which a large set of measured data was available. For the uncertainty analysis, the selected input parameters (source sound pressure level, average Mach number, liner impedance, exit impedance, static pressure and static temperature) are randomly varied over a range of values. Uncertainty limits (95% confidence levels) are computed for the predicted values from each code, and are compared with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the measured data. Generally, the mean values of the predicted attenuation are observed to track the mean values of the measured attenuation quite well and predicted confidence intervals tend to be larger in the presence of mean flow. A two-level, six factor sensitivity study is also conducted in which the six inputs are varied one at a time to assess their effect on the predicted attenuation. As expected, the results demonstrate the liner resistance and reactance to be the most important input parameters. They also indicate the exit impedance is a significant contributor to uncertainty in the predicted attenuation.

Nark, Douglas M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Quantification of model error via an interval model with nonparametric error bound

The quantification of model uncertainty is becoming increasingly important as robust control is an important tool for control system design and analysis. This paper presents an algorithm that effectively characterizes the model uncertainty in terms of parametric and nonparametric uncertainties. The algorithm utilizes the frequency domain model error which is estimated from the spectra of output error and input data. The parametric uncertainty is represented as an interval transfer function while the nonparametric uncertainty is bounded by a designed error bound transfer function. Both discrete and continuous systems are discussed in this paper. The algorithm is applied to the Mini-Mast example, and the detail analysis is given.

Lew, Jiann-Shiun↗

NASA NTRS1986

Theoretical analysis of isotope effects on ozone formation in oxygen photochemistry

In situ measurements of stratospheric ozone and laboratory studies of ozone production in electric discharge through oxygen have shown previously that ozone containing heavy isotopes of oxygen (O-17, O-18) may be formed preferentially. In order to assess the relevance of thee latter experiment to the stratospheric measurements, detailed understanding of the effect of isotopic substitution on the O3 formation reaction O + O2 + M yields O3 + M and on the O atom exchange reaction O + O2 + O yields O2 + O is necessary. In this work, an estimate of the effect of isotopic substitution on the recombination rate is made by us of approximate dynamical theories and statistical mechanics. The results indicate the possibility of isotope effects on the O + O2 recombination rate of the order of several percent at stratospheric temperatures. In general, recombination reactions involving heavy (mass 49, 50) O3 formation are found to be slower than the reaction leading to normal (mass 48) O3 formation. The calculated isotope effects are sufficiently small that the uncertainties in the model input and the approximations in the dynamical theories will probably make the quantitative nature of these results subject to considerable uncertainty. This isotope effect should not be observable in the atmosphere given the precision of the current measurements but may be crucial in the understanding of the laboratory experiments, where observed enhancements are only of the order of several percent. Possible reasons for this discrepancy between the observed enhancement and predicted depletion are presented.

Kaye, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Determination for Aeroheating in Uranus and Saturn Probe Entries by the Monte Carlo Method

The 2013-2022 Decaedal survey for planetary exploration has identified probe missions to Uranus and Saturn as high priorities. This work endeavors to examine the uncertainty for determining aeroheating in such entry environments. Representative entry trajectories are constructed using the TRAJ software. Flowfields at selected points on the trajectories are then computed using the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) Computational Fluid Dynamics Code. A Monte Carlo study is performed on the DPLR input parameters to determine the uncertainty in the predicted aeroheating, and correlation coefficients are examined to identify which input parameters show the most influence on the uncertainty. A review of the present best practices for input parameters (e.g. transport coefficient and vibrational relaxation time) is also conducted. It is found that the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for heating on Uranus entry is no more than 2.1%, assuming an equilibrium catalytic wall, with the uncertainty being determined primarily by diffusion and H(sub 2) recombination rate within the boundary layer. However, if the wall is assumed to be partially or non-catalytic, this uncertainty may increase to as large as 18%. The catalytic wall model can contribute over 3x change in heat flux and a 20% variation in film coefficient. Therefore, coupled material response/fluid dynamic models are recommended for this problem. It was also found that much of this variability is artificially suppressed when a constant Schmidt number approach is implemented. Because the boundary layer is reacting, it is necessary to employ self-consistent effective binary diffusion to obtain a correct thermal transport solution. For Saturn entries, the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for convective heating was less than 3.7%. The major uncertainty driver was dependent on shock temperature/velocity, changing from boundary layer thermal conductivity to diffusivity and then to shock layer ionization rate as velocity increases. While radiative heating for Uranus entry was negligible, the nominal solution for Saturn computed up to 20% radiative heating at the highest velocity examined. The radiative heating followed a non-normal distribution, with up to a 3x variation in magnitude. This uncertainty is driven by the H(sub 2) dissociation rate, as H(sub 2) that persists in the hot non-equilibrium zone contributes significantly to radiation.

Palmer, Grant↗

NASA NTRS1986

Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution Simulation

Program simulates constant elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function. CES function used by economic analysts to examine production costs as well as uncertainties in production. User provides such input parameters as price of labor, price of capital, and dispersion levels. CES minimizes expected cost to produce capital-uncertainty pair. By varying capital-value input, one obtains series of capital-uncertainty pairs. Capital-uncertainty pairs then used to generate several cost curves. CES program menu driven and features specific print menu for examining selected output curves. Program written in BASIC for interactive execution and implemented on IBM PC-series computer.

Reiter, G.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

Plumer, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1993

Physical model-set identification for robust control of flexible structures

An approach to dynamic system identification is presented taking into account the goal of enhancing robust control performance of flexible structures. Identification techniques are derived which take advantage of the physics of structural dynamics and can provide realistic bounds for all potential parameter uncertainties. The developed approach includes input optimization which distributes excitation energy in such a way that the influence of residual uncertainties on robust control performance is reduced.

Karlov, Valeri I.↗