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DOE OSTI2024

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change

The use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available model-based data sets. Data from the Global Weather Experiment in 1979 were analyzed by two authorized level IIIb data centers in 1980 and in 1981. The analyses led to difference in data-sparse regions such as the tropics. Study areas which can be addressed by an internally-consistent long-term multivariate data set for the atmospheric circulation are considered, including mean climate, forcing for the ocean models, global hydrological cycle, atmospheric energetics, intraseasonal variability, land surface processes, and structure and variability of vertical velocity, divergence, and diabatic heating. It is concluded that the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.

Bengtsson, L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Relationship of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to Global Change Research

In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC). Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various research areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the global change scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning: (1) the rate of global water cycling through the atmosphere and surface and the relationship of precipitation variability to the sustained rate of the water cycle; (2) the relationship between climate change and cloud macrophysical- microphysical processes; and (3) the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level that will take place during the GPM era and an explanation of how these improvements are expected to come about.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Applying Geospatial Technologies for International Development and Public Health: The USAID/NASA SERVIR Program

Background: SERVIR -- the Regional Visualization and Monitoring System -- helps people use Earth observations and predictive models based on data from orbiting satellites to make timely decisions that benefit society. SERVIR operates through a network of regional hubs in Mesoamerica, East Africa, and the Hindu Kush-Himalayas. USAID and NASA support SERVIR, with the long-term goal of transferring SERVIR capabilities to the host countries. Objective/Purpose: The purpose of this presentation is to describe how the SERVIR system helps the SERVIR regions cope with eight areas of societal benefit identified by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO): health, disasters, ecosystems, biodiversity, weather, water, climate, and agriculture. This presentation will describe environmental health applications of data in the SERVIR system, as well as ongoing and future efforts to incorporate additional health applications into the SERVIR system. Methods: This presentation will discuss how the SERVIR Program makes environmental data available for use in environmental health applications. SERVIR accomplishes its mission by providing member nations with access to geospatial data and predictive models, information visualization, training and capacity building, and partnership development. SERVIR conducts needs assessments in partner regions, develops custom applications of Earth observation data, and makes NASA and partner data available through an online geospatial data portal at SERVIRglobal.net. Results: Decision makers use SERVIR to improve their ability to monitor air quality, extreme weather, biodiversity, and changes in land cover. In past several years, the system has been used over 50 times to respond to environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and harmful algal blooms. Given that the SERVIR regions are experiencing increased stress under larger climate variability than historic observations, SERVIR provides information to support the development of adaptation strategies for nations affected by climate change. Conclusions: SERVIR is a platform for collaboration and cross-agency coordination, international partnerships, and delivery of web-based geospatial information services and applications. SERVIR makes a variety of geospatial data available for use in studies of environmental health outcomes.

Hemmings, Sarah↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of the Latitudinal Variability of Tropospheric Ozone in the Arctic Using the Large Number of Aircraft and Ozonesonde Observations in Early Summer 2008

The goals of the paper are to: (1) present tropospheric ozone (O3) climatologies in summer 2008 based on a large amount of measurements, during the International Polar Year when the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements, and Models of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport (POLARCAT) campaigns were conducted (2) investigate the processes that determine O3 concentrations in two different regions (Canada and Greenland) that were thoroughly studied using measurements from 3 aircraft and 7 ozonesonde stations. This paper provides an integrated analysis of these observations and the discussion of the latitudinal and vertical variability of tropospheric ozone north of 55oN during this period is performed using a regional model (WFR-Chem). Ozone, CO and potential vorticity (PV) distributions are extracted from the simulation at the measurement locations. The model is able to reproduce the O3 latitudinal and vertical variability but a negative O3 bias of 6-15 ppbv is found in the free troposphere over 4 km, especially over Canada. Ozone average concentrations are of the order of 65 ppbv at altitudes above 4 km both over Canada and Greenland, while they are less than 50 ppbv in the lower troposphere. The relative influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and of ozone production related to the local biomass burning (BB) emissions is discussed using differences between average values of O3, CO and PV for Southern and Northern Canada or Greenland and two vertical ranges in the troposphere: 0-4 km and 4-8 km. For Canada, the model CO distribution and the weak correlation ( 30) of O3 and PV suggests that stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is not the major contribution to average tropospheric ozone at latitudes less than 70oN, due to the fact that local biomass burning (BB) emissions were significant during the 2008 summer period. Conversely over Greenland, significant STE is found according to the better O3 versus PV correlation ( 40) and the higher 75th PV percentile. A weak negative latitudinal summer ozone gradient -6 to -8 ppbv is found over Canada in the mid troposphere between 4 and 8 km. This is attributed to an efficient O3 photochemical production due to the BB emissions at latitudes less than 65oN, while STE contribution is more homogeneous in the latitude range 55oN to 70oN. A positive ozone latitudinal gradient of 12 ppbv is observed in the same altitude range over Greenland not because of an increasing latitudinal influence of STE, but because of different long range transport from multiple mid-latitude sources (North America, Europe and even Asia for latitudes higher than 77oN).

climatologies↗

NASA NTRS2008

Contributions of TRMM and GPM to GEOSS

Two international satellite missions have a major role in the development of global precipitation data under the auspices of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) to meet the needs of several Societal Benefit Areas set forth by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). One is the joint U.S.-Japan Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in 1997, which provides combined radar/radiometer measurements to serve as a benchmark for tropical precipitation measurements by passive microwave radiometers and has played a key role in the development of the current generation of multi-satellite global rainfall products. The other is the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission, an international satellite mission to be launched in 2013 to deliver the next-generation global precipitation observations from a constellation of dedicated and operational microwave sensors. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals aimed at (1) advancing the knowledge of the global water/energy cycle variability and freshwater availability and (2) improving weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of global precipitation. The GPM Mission is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with additional partners in satellite constellation and ground validation under discussion. With NASA and JAXA science team activities providing the framework and infrastructures for international collaboration on satellite inter-calibration, retrieval algorithm development, and ground validation, GPM has been identified as the cornerstone for the development of the Precipitation Constellation for the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). An overview of current accomplishments by TRMM and anticipated contributions by GPM to GEOSS activities will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Research on the Natural Variability of Climate

The scheme for ocean vertical mixing presented in Canuto, Howard, Cheng & Dubovikov and Canuto, Howard, Hogan, Cheng, Dubovikov & Montenegro [GISS mixing scheme] was extended to include the latitudinal dependence reported by Gregg, Sanford & Winkel of the input to the interior ocean turbulence field of energy from internal waves. The resulting latitude dependence was implemented in our module of code for the GISS vertical mixing scheme and tested in the global NCAR-CSM ocean model with 3 degree X 3 degree resolution and 25 levels in the vertical. With the latitude dependence, the background diffusivity decreases from approx. 0.1 sq cm/sec at midlatitudes to approx. less than 0.01 sq cm/sec at the equator. A significant improvement was seen in the tropical ocean, with tropical thermoclines being sharpened in agreement with the requirements of observational studies and the needs of ENS0 modeling. At the same time global measures nf performance such as the meridional overturning and northward heat transport were not adversely affected. Results were presented at the 2004 Layered Ocean Modeling meeting and a paper has been prepared and submitted to Geophysical Research Letters.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1989

Solar wind and high energy particle effects in the middle atmosphere

The solar wind variability and high energy particle effects in the neutral middle atmosphere are not much known. These factors are important in the high latitude upper mesosphere, lower thermosphere energy budget. They influence temperature, composition (minor constituents of nitric oxide, ozone), circulation (wind system) and airflow. The vertical and latitudinal structures of such effects, mechanisms of downward penetration of energy and questions of energy abundance are largely to be solved. The most important recent finding seems to be the discovery of the role of highly relativistic electrons in the middle atmosphere at L = 3 - 8 (Baker et al., 1987). The solar wind and high energy particle flux variability appear to form a part of the chain of possible Sun-weather (climate) relationships. The importance of such studies in the nineties is emphasized by their role in big international programs STEP and IGBP - Global Change.

Lastovicka, Jan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of CLARA-A2 and ISCCP-H Cloud Cover Climate Data Records over Europe with ECA&D Ground-Based Measurements

Clouds are of high importance for the climate system but they still remain one of its principal uncertainties. Remote sensing techniques applied to satellite observations have assisted tremendously in the creation of long-term and homogeneous data records; however, satellite data sets need to be validated and compared with other data records, especially ground measurements. In the present study, the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of Total Cloud Cover (TCC) from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) Cloud, Albedo And Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data—edition 2 (CLARA-A2) and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project H-series (ISCCP-H) is analyzed over Europe. The CLARA-A2 data record has been created using measurements of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument onboard the polar orbiting NOAA and the EUMETSAT MetOp satellites, whereas the ISCCP-H data were produced by a combination of measurements from geostationary meteorological satellites and the AVHRR instrument on the polar orbiting satellites. An intercomparison of the two data records is performed over their common period, 1984 to 2012. In addition, a comparison of the two satellite data records is made against TCC observations at 22 meteorological stations in Europe, from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D). The results indicate generally larger ISCCP-H TCC with respect to the corresponding CLARA-A2 data, in particular in the Mediterranean. Compared to ECA&D data, both satellite datasets reveal a reasonable performance, with overall mean TCC biases of 2.1 and 5.2% for CLARA-A2 and ISCCP-H, respectively. This, along with the higher correlation coefficients between CLARA-A2 and ECA&D TCC, indicates the better performance of CLARA-A2 TCC data.

Tzallas, Vasileios↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will be presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Airborne Observations of the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Tropospheric Carbon Dioxide during the INTEX-B Campaign

The Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-North America (INTEX-NA) is an international field campaign envisioned to investigate the transport and transformation of gases and aerosols on transcontinental/intercontinental scales and assess their impact on air quality and climate. Phase B (INTEX-B) of the mission was conducted during a 10- week period from March 1 to May 15, 2006 and focused initially on pollution outflow from the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, later addressing the transport of pollution from Asia to North America during springtime meteorological conditions. During the deployment, fast-response (1-s resolution) CO2 measurements were recorded aboard the NASA DC-8 providing valuable regional-scale information on carbon sources and sinks over sparsely sampled areas of North America and adjacent ocean basins. When coupled with the enormously sophisticated chemistry payload on the DC-8, these measurements collectively afford extremely powerful multi-tracer constraints for carbon source/sink attribution. Preliminary examination of the two data sets from the INTEX-B campaign, acquired one month apart, reveals not only the influence of the CO2 seasonal cycle, but also the preponderance of human population and industrial activity in the northern hemisphere. In this presentation, a synergy of the ensemble of airborne and surface observations, bottomup emission inventories, as well as transport history are invoked in a GIS framework to elucidate the source/sink processes reflected in the observations. The airborne CO2 data, along with simultaneous surface measurements (e.g. NOAA ESRL), are examined to establish the vertical distribution and variability of CO2 as a function of location. The role of localized sources, long-range transport, the biosphere, stratospheric exchange, and dynamical processes on the CO2 spatial variability observed throughout the tropospheric column will be discussed.

Vay, Stephanie A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

California drought;Atmospheric ridging;Ocean-atmos↗

NASA NTRS2002

Science Formulation of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)

In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The new mission, which is now in its formulation phase, is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC), although not restricted to that branch of research. Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the Natural Hazards scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning the rate of the global water cycling, cloud macrophysical-microphysical processes of flood-producing storms, and the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes II

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Bolten, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

H53E: Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes I

Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS2011

Global Cooperation in the Science of Sun-Earth Connection

The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Living with a Star (ILWS) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues related to short and long term variability of the Sun and the consequences in the heliosphere. The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) 2007 program in focusing on science, observatory deployment, and outreach. The IHY/ISWI observatory deployment has not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. The ISWI schools and UN workshops are the primary venues for interaction and information exchange among scientists from developing and developed countries that lead to collaborative efforts in space weather. This paper presents a summary of ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations, capacity building, and public outreach.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗