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At least 127 records · Page 7

Regional contributions to the atmospheric excitation of rapid polar motions

Daily fields of surface pressure produced by the National Meteorological Center during 1981-1985 are used to identify the sectors of the globe over which changes in atmospheric mass contribute most importantly to the excitation of intraseasonal variations in the earth's polar axis. Maxima in the excitation function are found over the extratropical South Pacific, North Pacific, and North Atlantic, consistent with previous studies that have identified maxima in surface pressure variations in these regions. Because these centers are located over the ocean, the manner in which the ocean responds to changes in the atmospheric mass above it becomes of central importance in fully understanding the causes of rapid polar motions.

Salstein, David A.↗

Relationships between sea surface temperature and outgoing longwave radiation over the tropical oceans

The spatial relationships between convection and SST at intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual timescales over the tropical oceans are studied. The dependence of these local relationships on large-scale surface convergence/divergence is determined. The data used are day and night averaged NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and Climate Analysis Center monthly SSTs based on in situ measurements. Below 28 C, the SST and OLR have an approximately linear relationship. Above 28 C, the relationship between the SST and convection may be much more complex.

Chan, Paul H.↗

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

South Pacific convergence zone and global scale circulations (Jul. 1987 - Jul. 1991). Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns (Jul. 1990 - Jul. 1993)

Several research projects were worked on between August 1990 and May 1991. Topics covered included observational and modeling studies of relationships between tropical heat sources and subtropical jet streams, the intraseasonal (30 to 60 day) oscillation near the equator, and precipitation over tropical oceans. Current research activities and plans for the coming year are outlined.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

The distribution of deep convection over ocean and land during the Asian summer monsoon

The characteristics of the convection over the summer monsoon are investigated using the highly reflective cloud (HRC) data set (which is a subjective-analyzed daily index of organized deep convection, at one degree resolution, for years between 1971 and 1988 of the polar-orbiting satellite imagery). The results of the analysis are used to obtain the geographical distribution of HRCs for the climatological mean summer monsoon season and its four component months and to examine the intraseasonal variation of convection over selected areas. The model results of Webster and Chou (1980) are tested by comparing the relative frequency of occurrence of HRC for continental areas, coastal zones, and open ocean.

Grossman, Robert L.↗

Observations of cloud cluster hierarchies over the tropical western Pacific

The structure and propagation of tropical-cloud clusters are investigated during two contrasting periods over the tropical western Pacific in order to determine possible similarities or differences and to compare with previous studies. Three fundamental periodicities are found in tropical convection in the region: 1 day, 2-3 days, and 10-15 days. It is noted that the 10-15-day time scale is closely related to the intraseasonal oscillations propagating from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific. Large convective complexes, supercloud clusters (SSC) are found to organize in this time scale. The SCC is made up from several cloud clusters generated at 2-3-day intervals. The diurnal variation is found to be most pronounced over the maritime continent, and the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is shown to be modulated by the 2-3-day and 10-15-day oscillations.

Lau, K. M.↗

Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

Ghil, M.↗

Earth's variable rotation

Recent improvements in geodetic data and practical meteorology have advanced research on fluctuations in the earth's rotation. The interpretation of these fluctuations is inextricably linked with studies of the dynamics of the earth-moon system and dynamical processes in the liquid metallic core of the earth (where the geomagnetic field originates), other parts of the earth's interior, and the hydrosphere and atmosphere. Fluctuations in the length of the day occurring on decadal time scales have implications for the topographay of the core-mantle boundary and the electrical, magnetic, ande other properties of the core and lower mantle. Investigations of more rapid fluctuations bear on meteorological studies of interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal variations in the general circulation of the atmosphere and the response of the oceans to such variations.

Hide, Raymond↗

Aspects Of 40- to 50-Day Oscillations In LOD And AAM

Report presents study of fluctuations in rotation of Earth, focusing on irregular intraseasonal oscillations in length of day (LOD) and atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) with periods varying from 40 to 50 days. Study draws upon and extends results of prior research.

Dickey, Jean O.↗

South Pacific convergence zone and global-scale circulations

The major goals of the research can be classified under three categories: (1) heat and moisture budget studies in the tropics; (2) the role of tropical forcing on subtropical wind maxima in the Southern Hemisphere; and (3) general circulation modeling of low latitude circulations. Research related to the first goal included budget estimates of precipitation, as well as a comparison to rainfall rates observed at numerous island stations. It also included a comparison between observed and satellite estimates of precipitable water. Results and methods used to achieve this goal are given. Included in the second research goal were diagnostic studies of the intraseasonal oscillation which is known to be an important component of organized tropical convection. Also, the role of extratropical forcing on subtropical wind maxima was examined through the use of Eliassen-Palm (EP) fluxes. Again, results and procedural details are discussed in section 3. To accomplish the third research goal, the GLA general circulation model (GCM) was ported to Purdue University and successfully used in a number of control and experimental runs to investigate the significance of tropical heating on subtropical and extratropical circulation features. As with the first two research goals, results and methodology are detailed. Documentation of publications, theses, conference preprint papers, and other scientific information relevant to the research results and significant accomplishments achieved under the contract are given. Finally, the conclusions of the sponsored research are given.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Extratropical aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation in length-of-day and atmospheric angular momentum

The 40-50-d oscillation in length-of-day (LOD) and AAM is investigated using the 12-yr overlap between two records: AAM data, compiled from the NMC, and LOD variation from the JPL Kalman-filtered earth rotation series. The NMC records are analyzed by latitude belts, in the light of the UCLA GCM results, in order to identify possibly distinct sources of the AAM oscillation in the midlatitudes and the tropics. Results suggest that two intraseasonal oscillations exist in the earth-atmosphere system: a tropical 50-d oscillation associated with the convectively driven waves of the type first described by Madden and Julian (1971) and a midlatitude 40-d oscillation associated with the interaction of nonzonal flow with topography.

Dickey, J. O.↗

Multiscale phenomena in the tropical atmosphere over the western Pacific

The paper examines multiscale variabilities in the atmosphere over the tropical western Pacific during the 1979 Northern Hemisphere winter in order to identify possible interactions between phenomena of different spatial and temporal scales. Based on the convection-index information derived from satellite measurements, two intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), accompanied by both rotational and divergent circulations, propagate eastward from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific. Over the warm pool in the western Pacific, the ISOs develop into quasi-stationary systems with an enhanced rotational circulation characterized by a strong westerly jet in the lower troposphere and western Pacific region.

Sui, C.-H.↗

Low-frequency predictability of the Dynamical Extended-Range Forecast Experiment

The objective of the study was to analyze data from the Dynamical Extended-Range Forecast Experiment conducted from January 1986 to March 1987, and to evaluate differences between analysis and forecasts with emphasis on the tropical 30-50-day oscillation. The diagnostic toll used is the projection of analysis and forecast data onto the normal modes of a primitive equation model. Examination of zonal-wind anomalies in the tropics shows that the forecast model predicts propagation of intraseasonal variations more accurately for slow propagation rates. The forecast amplitude is generally weaker than the analyzed amplitude. Analyzed kinetic energy and error fields exhibit similar horizontal scales for internal and external modes. External Rossby-mode components maximize in the extratropics while Rossby internal modes exhibit patterns that extend over the entire globe.

Nogues-Peagle, Julia↗

Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating

The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence. In these calculations, frictional convergence near the equator emerges as a key to feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. At low latitudes, nearly geostrophic balance in the boundary layer gives way to frictional balance. This shifts the wave-induced convection into phase with the temperature anomaly and allows the attending heating to feed back positively onto the circulation. The calculations successfully reproduce the salient features of the MJO. They are being used to understand the growth and decay phases of the composite lifecycle and the conditions that favor amplification of the MJO.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns

The research sponsored by this grant is a continuation and an extension of the work conducted under a previous contract, 'South Pacific Convergence Zone and Global-Scale Circulations'. In the prior work, we conducted a detailed investigation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and documented many of its significant features and characteristics. We also conducted studies of its interaction with global-scale circulation features through the use of both observational and modeling studies. The latter was accomplished toward the end of the contract when Dr. James Hurrell, then a Ph.D. candidate, successfully ported the NASA GLA general circulation model (GCM) to Purdue University. In our present grant, we have expanded our previous research to include studies of other convectively-driven circulation systems in the tropics besides the SPCZ. Furthermore, we have continued to examine the relationship between these convective systems and global-scale circulation patterns. Our recent research efforts have focused on three objectives: (1) determining the periodicity of large-scale bands of organized convection in the tropics, primarily synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) examining the relative importance of tropical versus mid-latitude forcing for Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical jets, particularly over the Pacific Ocean; and (3) estimating tropical precipitation, especially over oceans, using observational and budget methods. A summary list of our most significant accomplishments in the past year is given.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Estimation of surface heat and moisture fluxes over a prairie grassland. II - Two-dimensional time filtering and site variability

The behavior of in situ measurements of surface fluxes obtained during FIFE 1987 is examined by using correlative and spectral techniques in order to assess the significance of fluctuations on various time scales, from subdiurnal up to synoptic, intraseasonal, and annual scales. The objectives of this analysis are: (1) to determine which temporal scales have a significant impact on areal averaged fluxes and (2) to design a procedure for filtering an extended flux time series that preserves the basic diurnal features and longer time scales while removing high frequency noise that cannot be attributed to site-induced variation. These objectives are accomplished through the use of a two-dimensional cross-time Fourier transform, which serves to separate processes inherently related to diurnal and subdiurnal variability from those which impact flux variations on the longer time scales. A filtering procedure is desirable before the measurements are utilized as input with an experimental biosphere model, to insure that model based intercomparisons at multiple sites are uncontaminated by input variance not related to true site behavior. Analysis of the spectral decomposition indicates that subdiurnal time scales having periods shorter than 6 hours have little site-to-site consistency and therefore little impact on areal integrated fluxes.

Crosson, William L.↗

Orographically forced oscillations in a dynamical model of the Martian atmosphere

The barotropic, orographically-forced intraseasonal oscillations of the Martian atmosphere are presently analyzed by means of a single-layer shallow-water model. An oscillation with 85-Martian day mean period is noted in a time-series of the model global atmospheric angular momentum, and its robustness is verified. The oscillation has a standing zonal component whose centers of action are located upstream and downstream of salient orographic features. A resemblance arises between the oscillation's northern-hemisphere features and those of the terrestrial 40-day oscillation.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗

A climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic hurricanes

The variability of intense (or major) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin is investigated on both intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Differences are highlighted in characteristics between intense hurricanes and the weaker minor hurricanes and tropical storms. Intense hum canes show a much more peaked annual cycle than do weaker tropical cyclones. Ninety-five percent of all intense hurricane activity occurs during August to October. Of all classes of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, the intense hurricanes display the greatest year-to-year variability. The incidence of intense hurricanes also has decreased during the last two decades. After adjusting for this bias, however, a substantial downward trend in intense hurricane activity during recent years is still apparent. Given that intense hurricanes are responsible for more than 70 percent of all destruction caused by tropical cyclones in the United States, an understanding is needed of the physical mechanisms for these observed variations of intense hurricane activity.

Landsea, Christopher W.↗