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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

TuckerMPI: A Parallel C++/MPI Software Package for Large-scale Data Compression via the Tucker Tensor Decomposition

With this study, our goal is compression of massive-scale grid-structured data, such as the multi-terabyte output of a high-fidelity computational simulation. For such data sets, we have developed a new software package called TuckerMPI, a parallel C++/MPI software package for compressing distributed data. The approach is based on treating the data as a tensor, i.e., a multidimensional array, and computing its truncated Tucker decomposition, a higher-order analogue to the truncated singular value decomposition of a matrix. The result is a low-rank approximation of the original tensor-structured data. Compression efficiency is achieved by detecting latent global structure within the data, which we contrast to most compression methods that are focused on local structure. In this work, we describe TuckerMPI, our implementation of the truncated Tucker decomposition, including details of the data distribution and in-memory layouts, the parallel and serial implementations of the key kernels, and analysis of the storage, communication, and computational costs. We test the software on 4.5 and 6.7 terabyte data sets distributed across 100 s of nodes (1,000 s of MPI processes), achieving compression ratios between 100 and 200,000×, which equates to 99--99.999% compression (depending on the desired accuracy) in substantially less time than it would take to even read the same dataset from a parallel file system. Moreover, we show that our method also allows for reconstruction of partial or down-sampled data on a single node, without a parallel computer so long as the reconstructed portion is small enough to fit on a single machine, e.g., in the instance of reconstructing/visualizing a single down-sampled time step or computing summary statistics. The code is available at https://gitlab.com/tensors/TuckerMPI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improvement of the NOvA Near Detector Event Reconstruction and Primary Vertexing through the Application of Machine Learning Methods

The purpose of this work is to examine the application of a deep learning model in event reconstruction of neutrino interactions. The challenges faced in event reconstruction include the placement of an accurate primary neutrino interaction vertex which is used to support the particle track and prong algorithms. The result of accurate primary vertex ensures all particles involved in a neutrino interaction are included. We propose a regression-based Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) method to predict the primary vertex of a particle interaction. We show that with raw two-dimensional pixel map views as input, the regression-based CNN can predict the primary vertex in all three coordinates. This work is applied as part of the NOvA (NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance) near detector reconstruction efforts. The primary vertex predicted by the regression-based CNN model shows promising results for future applications. This deep learning method can be extended to secondary vertexing through a Kernel Density Estimate algorithm discussed in this work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Results on CPU/GPU Exascale Architectures for OMEGA: The Ocean Model for E3SM Global Applications

The US Department of Energy (DOE) conducts climate simulations on some of the world’s largest supercomputers. These exascale machines use heterogeneous architectures with both CPUs and GPUs, and scientific codes must adapt to make full use of this computing power. Los Alamos National Lab is developing Omega: The Ocean Model for E3SM Global Applications, which is specifically designed for modern exascale computers. It uses external libraries that have been optimized for a variety of architectures to run on different supercomputers. Omega is an unstructured-mesh ocean model based on TRiSK numerical methods. It will be the new ocean component of the DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The algorithms in Omega follow those of the current ocean component, MPAS-Ocean, but it will be written in C++ rather than Fortran to take advantage of the Kokkos performance portability library. Omega spatial operators are written as Kokkos kernels to run efficiently on both CPUs and GPUs. Work on Omega began in 2023 with a new C++ framework for unstructured mesh partitioning, halo exchanges, parallel IO, and Kokkos interfaces. The current version, Omega-0, is being developed to solve the shallow water equations and at present includes all of the tendency terms but not time stepping. Here we share the results of Omega-0 verification and performance testing. Verification includes unit tests implemented with CTest as well as convergence tests in Polaris, an in-house python package with a large suite of test problems. Performance tests compare simulations conducted on CPUs versus GPUs and across different architectures: tests are run on Frontier, which has AMD “Optimized 3rd Gen EPYC” CPUs and AMD MI250X GPUs, as well as Perlmutter, which is composed of AMD EPYC 7763 CPUs and NVIDIA A100 GPUs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Using Machine-Learning Methods and Expert Prediction Probabilities to Forecast Solar Flares

It has long been known that studying connection between solar flares and properties of magnetic field in active regions is very important for understanding the flare physics and developing space weather forecasts. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) obtains tremendous amounts of magnetic field data products. However the operational NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts of solar flares still represent prediction probabilities issued by the experts. In this research we investigate the possibilities to enhance the daily operational flare forecasts performed at the SWPC by developing a synergy of the expert predictions and physics-based criteria, and by employing machine-learning methods. Among the physics-based criteria we consider the descriptors of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and derive from them daily characteristics of the entire Sun. We also consider the daily descriptors of the GOES Soft X-Ray (SXR) 1-8 Angstroms flux such as the flare history of the previous days and averaged X-Ray flux. We estimate the effectiveness in separation of flaring and non-flaring cases for each characteristic, as well as for the expert prediction probabilities, and find that some PIL, SHARP and SXR descriptors are as effective as the expert prediction probabilities and should be considered to issue the flare forecast. Finally, we train and test several Machine-Learning classification algorithms (Support Vector Classifiers with various kernel functions, k-Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and Neural Networks) using the most effective descriptors and expert prediction probabilities, and compare the obtained predictions with the current SWPC forecasts.

Machine-Learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human-in-the-Loop: The Future of Machine Learning in Automated Electron Microscopy

Machine learning (ML) methods are progressively gaining acceptance in the electron microscopy community for de-noising, semantic segmentation, and dimensionality reduction of data post-acquisition. The introduction of the application programming interfaces (APIs) by major instrument manufacturers now allows the deployment of ML workflows in microscopes, not only for data analytics but also for real-time decision-making and feedback for microscope operation. However, the number of use cases for real-time ML remains remarkably small. Furthermore, we discuss some considerations in designing ML-based active experiments and pose that the likely strategy for the next several years will be human-in-the-loop automated experiments (hAE). In this paradigm, the ML learning agent directly controls beam position and image and spectroscopy acquisition functions, and a human operator monitors experiment progression in real and feature space of the system and tunes the policies of the ML agent to steer the experiment toward specific objectives.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Many-body expansion based machine learning models for octahedral transition metal complexes

Abstract Graph-based machine learning (ML) models for material properties show great potential to accelerate virtual high-throughput screening of large chemical spaces. However, in their simplest forms, graph-based models do not include any 3D information and are unable to distinguish stereoisomers such as those arising from different orderings of ligands around a metal center in coordination complexes. In this work we present a modification to revised autocorrelation descriptors, a molecular graph featurization method, for predicting spin state dependent properties of octahedral transition metal complexes (TMCs). Inspired by analytical semi-empirical models for TMCs, the new modeling strategy is based on the many-body expansion (MBE) and allows one to tune the captured stereoisomer information by changing the truncation order of the MBE. We present the necessary modifications to include this approach in two commonly used ML methods, kernel ridge regression and feed-forward neural networks. On a test set composed of all possible isomers of binary TMCs, the best MBE models achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 2.75 kcal mol −1 on spin-splitting energies and 0.26 eV on frontier orbital energy gaps, a 30%–40% reduction in error compared to models based on our previous approach. We also observe improved generalization to previously unseen ligands where the best-performing models exhibit MAEs of 4.00 kcal mol −1 (i.e. a 0.73 kcal mol −1 reduction) on the spin-splitting energies and 0.53 eV (i.e. a 0.10 eV reduction) on the frontier orbital energy gaps. Because the new approach incorporates insights from electronic structure theory, such as ligand additivity relationships, these models exhibit systematic generalization from homoleptic to heteroleptic complexes, allowing for efficient screening of TMC search spaces.

Meyer, Ralf (ORCID:0000000322360261)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-optimized machine-learned manifold models for large eddy simulation of turbulent combustion

Many modeling approaches in large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent combustion employ a projection of the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold within state space to reduce the number of transported variables and hence computational cost. Flamelet-generated manifolds (FGM) is an example of a well-established, physics-based approach, but increasingly, principal component analysis (PCA) is being used as a data-driven method for generating manifold models. For both approaches, the nonlinear relationship between the location on the predefined manifold and the outputs of interest, such as reaction rates, can be tabulated or encoded in a neural network. This work proposes a new approach for manifold modeling that extends these existing approaches. A modified neural network structure simultaneously encodes the definition of the manifold variables, the nonlinear mapping, and the subfilter closure for LES. This allows all three of these aspects of the model to be co-optimized, generating a model from any source of combustion thermochemical state data. The manifold parameterizing variables are constrained to be linear combinations of species, as in FGM and PCA-based models, to aid in interpretability and implementation. For LES, subfilter variances of the manifold variables are also included as inputs. Two types of a priori analysis are performed to evaluate the new approach. In the first, the model is trained on data from one-dimensional premixed flames. In this case, the approach recovers the behavior of flamelet-based manifold approaches, and in fact slightly improves performance by identifying an optimized progress variable. The approach is also applied to data from direct numerical simulations of spherical ignition kernels in isotropic turbulence. For any specified manifold dimensionality, the new approach provides substantially lower prediction errors than a PCA-based model developed from the same data set. Additionally, the LES formulation of the new approach can provide accurate predictions for filtered reaction rates across a variety of filter widths.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning to Optimize Variational Quantum Circuits to Solve Combinatorial Problems

Quantum computing is a computational paradigm with the potential to outperform classical methods for a variety of problems. Proposed recently, the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is considered as one of the leading candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage in the near term. QAOA is a variational hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for approximately solving combinatorial optimization problems. The quality of the solution obtained by QAOA for a given problem instance depends on the performance of the classical optimizer used to optimize the variational parameters. In this paper, we formulate the problem of finding optimal QAOA parameters as a learning task in which the knowledge gained from solving training instances can be leveraged to find high-quality solutions for unseen test instances. To this end, we develop two machine-learning-based approaches. Our first approach adopts a reinforcement learning (RL) framework to learn a policy network to optimize QAOA circuits. Our second approach adopts a kernel density estimation (KDE) technique to learn a generative model of optimal QAOA parameters. In both approaches, the training procedure is performed on small-sized problem instances that can be simulated on a classical computer; yet the learned RL policy and the generative model can be used to efficiently solve larger problems. Furthermore, extensive simulations using the IBM Qiskit Aer quantum circuit simulator demonstrate that our proposed RL- and KDE-based approaches reduce the optimality gap by factors up to 30.15 when compared with other commonly used off-the-shelf optimizers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Feasibility study, software design, layout and simulation of a two-dimensional fast Fourier transform machine for use in optical array interferometry

The NASA-Cornell Univ.-Worcester Polytechnic Institute Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) chip based on the architecture of the systolic FFT computation as presented by Boriakoff is implemented into an operating device design. The kernel of the system, a systolic inner product floating point processor, was designed to be assembled into a systolic network that would take incoming data streams in pipeline fashion and provide an FFT output at the same rate, word by word. It was thoroughly simulated for proper operation, and it has passed a comprehensive set of tests showing no operational errors. The black box specifications of the chip, which conform to the initial requirements of the design as specified by NASA, are given. The five subcells are described and their high level function description, logic diagrams, and simulation results are presented. Some modification of the Read Only Memory (ROM) design were made, since some errors were found in it. Because a four stage pipeline structure was used, simulating such a structure is more difficult than an ordinary structure. Simulation methods are discussed. Chip signal protocols and chip pinout are explained.

Boriakoff, Valentin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning to classify quantum phases of matter with a few measurements

We study the identification of quantum phases of matter, at zero temperature, when only part of the phase diagram is known in advance. Following a supervised learning approach, we show how to use our previous knowledge to construct an observable capable of classifying the phase even in the unknown region. By using a combination of classical and quantum techniques, such as tensor networks, kernel methods, generalization bounds, quantum algorithms, and shadow estimators, we show that, in some cases, the certification of new ground states can be obtained with a polynomial number of measurements. An important application of our findings is the classification of the phases of matter obtained in quantum simulators, e.g. cold atom experiments, capable of efficiently preparing ground states of complex many-particle systems and applying simple measurements, e.g. single qubit measurements, but unable to perform a universal set of gates.

quantum machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

SymProp: Scaling Sparse Symmetric Tucker Decomposition via Symmetry Propagation

Sparse symmetric tensors are an important class of tensors, and their decompositions serve as powerful tools for revealing low-rank structures. This paper introduces SymProp, a novel approach for scaling sparse symmetric Tucker decomposition by propagating symmetry through intermediate computations. SymProp optimizes two key computational kernels: Sparse Symmetric Tensor Times Same Matrix chain (S3 TTMc) for Higher-Order Orthogonal Iteration (HOOI) and Sparse Symmetric Tensor Times Same Matrix chain Times Core (S3 TTMcTC) for Higher-Order QR Iteration (HOQRI). Our method employs a metaprogramming-based index iteration approach to efficiently handle the upper triangular parts of intermediate dense symmetric tensors. SymProp achieves up to 50.9× speedup over SPLATT and up to 360.8× over Compressed Sparse Symmetric (CSS) format on the S3 TTMc operation. Moreover, our S3 TTMc and S3 TTMcTC implementations support tensor orders four levels higher than state-of-the-art methods. Our HOQRI demonstrates superior scalability and up to a 33.6× speedup over optimized HOOI. By enabling more scalable Tucker decompositions for higher orders, decomposition ranks, and dimension sizes, SymProp opens new possibilities for analyzing complex hypergraph structures in fields such as network science, data mining, and machine learning.

Li, Zecheng [North Carolina State University]↗
DOE OSTI2022

kynema-fmb [SWR-23-07]

Kynema-FMB (FKA: Kynema) is an open-source performance portable flexible multibody (FMB) dynamics solver designed for time-domain simulations. While originally tailored for wind turbine structural dynamics, the formulation and implementation are those of a general flexible-multidbody dynamics solver that can readily be applied to a wide range of systems. Kynema was designed with a narrow focus, namely to provide a lightweight, fast, accurate FMD solver for coupling to computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) codes, especially the CFD codes in the Kynema suite, for fluid-structure-interaction (FSI) simulations. Kynema-FMB is equipped to model systems that can be represented as a collection of beams and rigid bodies that are connected through constraints. Degrees of freedom are defined in the inertial/global frame of reference and include displacements and rotations (formally as rotation matrices, but stored as quaternions). The underlying formulation is built on a Lie-group time integrator designed for index-3 differential-algebraic equations, which is second-order accurate in time (Bruls et al., 2012). Beam models are based on geometrically exact beam theory and are discretized as high-order spectral finite elements similar to those in BeamDyn (Wang et al., 2017). The governing equations for a FMD system like a wind turbine constitute a highly nonlinear system of constrained partial-differential equations. Kynema-FMB uses analytical Jacobians in the nonlinear-system solves in each time step. Linear systems use sparse storage and several third-party sparse-linear-system solvers are enabled. Ill conditioning of linear systems is mitigated with preconditioning described in Bottasso et al, 2008. Kynema-FMB is integrated with a simple open-source controller (ROSCO). There is an application programming interface (API) for coupling to geometry-resolved CFD (like that in Sharma et al., 2023) and actuator-force CFD (like that in Kuhn et al., 2025). In the latter, for actuator-line models, Kynema-FMB includes an internal blade-element solver that depends on user-provided lookup tables for coefficients of lift and drag, i.e., aerodynamic polars. Kynema-FMB is written in C++ and leverages Kokkos and Kokkos-Kernels (KokkosEcosystem) as its performance portability layer enabling simulations on both CPU and GPU systems. The repository is equipped with extensive automated testing at the unit and regression/system levels. The following describes the high-level development objectives conceived for Kynema: *Kynema will follow modern software development best practices, including test-driven development (TDD), version control, hierarchical automated testing, and continuous integration (CI) for a robust development environment. *The core data structures are memory efficient and enable vectorization and parallelization at multiple levels. *Data structures are data-oriented to exploit methods for accelerated computing including high utilization of chip resources (e.g., single instruction multiple data (SIMD) instruction sets) and parallelization using GP-GPUs. *The computational algorithms incorporate robust open-source libraries for mathematical operations, resource allocation, and data management. *The API design considers multiple stakeholder needs and ensure integration with existing and future ecosystems for data science, machine learning, and AI. *Kynema-FMB is written in modern C++ and leverages Kokkos as its performance-portability library with inspiration from the kynema stack.

Sprague, MichaelA.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mathematical nuances of Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

Abstract The fields of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed almost every aspect of science and engineering. The excitement for AI/ML methods is in large part due to their perceived novelty, as compared to traditional methods of statistics, computation, and applied mathematics. But clearly, all methods in ML have their foundations in mathematical theories, such as function approximation, uncertainty quantification, and function optimization. Autonomous experimentation is no exception; it is often formulated as a chain of off-the-shelf tools, organized in a closed loop, without emphasis on the intricacies of each algorithm involved. The uncomfortable truth is that the success of any ML endeavor, and this includes autonomous experimentation, strongly depends on the sophistication of the underlying mathematical methods and software that have to allow for enough flexibility to consider functions that are in agreement with particular physical theories. We have observed that standard off-the-shelf tools, used by many in the applied ML community, often hide the underlying complexities and therefore perform poorly. In this paper, we want to give a perspective on the intricate connections between mathematics and ML, with a focus on Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation. Although the Gaussian process is a powerful mathematical concept, it has to be implemented and customized correctly for optimal performance. We present several simple toy problems to explore these nuances and highlight the importance of mathematical and statistical rigor in autonomous experimentation and ML. One key takeaway is that ML is not, as many had hoped, a set of agnostic plug-and-play solvers for everyday scientific problems, but instead needs expertise and mastery to be applied successfully. Graphical abstract

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring temporal community evolution: algorithmic approaches and parallel optimization for dynamic community detection

Abstract Dynamic (temporal) graphs are a convenient mathematical abstraction for many practical complex systems including social contacts, business transactions, and computer communications. Community discovery is an extensively used graph analysis kernel with rich literature for static graphs. However, community discovery in a dynamic setting is challenging for two specific reasons. Firstly, the notion of temporal community lacks a widely accepted formalization, and only limited work exists on understanding how communities emerge over time. Secondly, the added temporal dimension along with the sheer size of modern graph data necessitates new scalable algorithms. In this paper, we investigate how communities evolve over time based on several graph metrics under a temporal formalization. We compare six different algorithmic approaches for dynamic community detection for their quality and runtime. We identify that a vertex-centric (local) optimization method works as efficiently as the classical modularity-based methods. To its advantage, such local computation allows for the efficient design of parallel algorithms without incurring a significant parallel overhead. Based on this insight, we design a shared-memory parallel algorithm DyComPar , which demonstrates between 4 and 18 fold speed-up on a multi-core machine with 20 threads, for several real-world and synthetic graphs from different domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extending XACC for Quantum Optimal Control

Quantum computing vendors are beginning to open up application programming interfaces for direct pulse-level quantum control. With this, programmers can begin to describe quantum kernels of execution via sequences of arbitrary pulse shapes. This opens new avenues of research and development with regards to smart quantum compilation routines that enable direct translation of higher-level digital assembly representations to these native pulse instructions. In this work, we present an extension to the XACC system-level quantum-classical software framework that directly enables this compilation lowering phase via user-specified quantum optimal control techniques. This extension enables the translation of digital quantum circuit representations to equivalent pulse sequences that are optimal with respect to the backend system dynamics. Our work is modular and extensible, enabling third party optimal control techniques and strategies in both C++ and Python. We demonstrate this extension with familiar gradient-based methods like gradient ascent pulse engineering (GRAPE), gradient optimization of analytic controls (GOAT), and Krotov's method. Our work serves as a foundational component of future quantum-classical compiler designs that lower high-level programmatic representations to low-level machine instructions.

Nguyen, Thien↗
DOE OSTI2022

Projecting the Thermal Response in a HTGR-Type System during Conduction Cooldown Using Graph-Laplacian Based Machine Learning

Accurate prediction of an off-normal event in a nuclear reactor is dependent upon the availability of sensory data, reactor core physical condition, and understanding of the underlying phenomenon. This work presents a method to project the data from some discrete sensory locations to the overall reactor domain during conduction cooldown scenarios similar to High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs). The existing models for conductive cooldown in a heterogeneous multi-body system, such as an assembly of prismatic blocks or pebble beds relies on knowledge of the thermal contact conductance, requiring significant knowledge of local thermal contacts and heat transport possibilities across those contacts. With a priori knowledge of bulk geometry features and some discrete sensors, a machine learning approach was devised. The presented work uses an experimental facility to mimic conduction cooldown with an assembly of 68 cylindrical rods initially heated to 1200 K. High-fidelity temperature data were collected using an infrared (IR) camera to provide training data to the model and validate the predicted temperature data. The machine learning approach used here first converts the macroscopic bulk geometry information into Graph-Laplacian, and then uses the eigenvectors of the Graph-Laplacian to develop Kernel functions. Support vector regression (SVR) was implemented on the obtained Kernels and used to predict the thermal response in a packed rod assembly during a conduction cooldown experiment. The usage of SVR modeling differs from most models today because of its representation of thermal coupling between rods in the core. When trained with thermographic data, the average normalized error is less than 2% over 400 s, during which temperatures of the assembly have dropped by more than 500 K. The rod temperature prediction performance was significantly better for rods in the interior of the assembly compared to those near the exterior, likely due to the model simplification of the surroundings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implementing Arbitrary/Common Concurrent Writes of CRCW PRAM

The Parallel Random Access Machines (PRAM) abstraction is the simplest and most elegant algorithmic model for the design and analysis of parallel algorithms. It consists of different models categorized based on the underlying memory access mode used, the most powerful of which is the Concurrent Read Concurrent Write (CRCW) model. A PRAM algorithm describes a series of rounds, each of which consists of a collection of operations that can be executed concurrently within the same time step. However, the lack of support for concurrent memory accesses and the prevalence of asynchronous programming models led to the belief that implementing CRCW PRAM algorithms is unattainable and prompted many to avoid this model except for theoretical studies of optimal performance.In this work, we study the arbitrary and common concurrent writes in the CRCW PRAM model and explore implementation challenges on general-purpose systems. Moreover, we examine current practices for implementing common/arbitrary concurrent writes and propose a new efficient lightweight and thread-safe method to implement concurrent writes through leveraging atomic instructions. To demonstrate the efficacy of our method, we developed OpenMP kernels for classical CRCW PRAM algorithms and provide experimental results and comparisons based on run time performance measured over the x86 multicore architecture. Our results show a performance speedup compared to current practices up to 4.5x across all our benchmarks.

Ghanim, Fady↗
DOE OSTI2018

Temporal ensemble learning of univariate methods for short term load forecasting

Short term load forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental component of demand response programs in smart grids. Recent literature has focused on complex neural networks and deep learning models for solving STLF. While these models work well for load forecasting with complex non-linear relationships, they have been shown to be less effective than simpler univariate models for STLF problems with under a 6 hours horizon. Given the lack of multivariate data (such as temperature) in many practical datasets, we need better univariate prediction models for STLF. By partitioning the dataset by temporal features, we develop a novel ensemble learning method that exploits daily seasonality in electricity consumption data to improve accuracy of popular univariate models. We train an ensemble of models from the dataset partitions. We develop a variety of methods, including Ridge Regression, to increase the robustness of the ensemble prediction. To show the effectiveness of our approach, we perform detailed evaluation using an aggregated user electricity consumption dataset collected by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP). We select four popular prediction algorithms in literature for our experiments, including Kernel Regression (KR), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and neural network approaches. We compare the performance of these algorithms applying our ensemble approach to training only one single model. Our approach leads to an 11.2% decrease in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and 21.3% decrease in root mean squared error (RMSE) over the single model approach for KR, and a 30% and 32.4% decrease in MAPE and RMSE respectively for SVR. These ensemble models also outperform the neural network approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗