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At least 127 records · Page 7
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DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results XII. Galactic astrophysics using polarized dust emission

Observations of the submillimetre emission from Galactic dust, in both total intensity I and polarization, have received tremendous interest thanks to the Planck full-sky maps. In this paper we make use of such full-sky maps of dust polarized emission produced from the third public release of Planck data. As the basis for expanding on astrophysical studies of the polarized thermal emission from Galactic dust, we present full-sky maps of the dust polarization fraction p, polarization angle ψ, and dispersion function of polarization angles S . The joint distribution (one-point statistics) of p and NH confirms that the mean and maximum polarization fractions decrease with increasing NH. The uncertainty on the maximum observed polarization fraction, pmax = 22.0 -1.4 +3.5% at 353 GHz and 80' resolution, is dominated by the uncertainty on the Galactic emission zero level in total intensity, in particular towards diffuse lines of sight at high Galactic latitudes. Furthermore, the inverse behaviour between p and S found earlier is seen to be present at high latitudes. This follows the S ∝ p -1 relationship expected from models of the polarized sky (including numerical simulations of magnetohydrodynamical turbulence) that include effects from only the topology of the turbulent magnetic field, but otherwise have uniform alignment and dust properties. Thus, the statistical properties of p, ψ, and S for the most part reflect the structure of the Galactic magnetic field. Nevertheless, we search for potential signatures of varying grain alignment and dust properties. First, we analyse the product map S × p, looking for residual trends. While the polarization fraction p decreases by a factor of 3-4 between NH = 10 20 cm -2 and NH = 2 x 10 22 cm -2 , out of the Galactic plane, this product S × p only decreases by about 25%. Because S is independent of the grain alignment efficiency, this demonstrates that the systematic decrease in p with N H is determined mostly by the magnetic-field structure and not by a drop in grain alignment. This systematic trend is observed both in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) and in molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. Second, we look for a dependence of polarization properties on the dust temperature, as we would expect from the radiative alignment torque (RAT) theory. We find no systematic trend of S × p with the dust temperature T d , whether in the diffuse ISM or in the molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. In the diffuse ISM, lines of sight with high polarization fraction p and low polarization angle dispersion S tend, on the contrary, to have colder dust than lines of sight with low p and high S . We also compare the Planck thermal dust polarization with starlight polarization data in the visible at high Galactic latitudes. The agreement in polarization angles is remarkable, and is consistent with what we expect from the noise and the observed dispersion of polarization angles in the visible on the scale of the Planck beam. The two polarization emission-to-extinction ratios, R P/p and R S/V , which primarily characterize dust optical properties, have only a weak dependence on the column density, and converge towards the values previously determined for translucent lines of sight. We also determine an upper limit for the polarization fraction in extinction, p V /E(B - V), of 13% at high Galactic latitude, compatible with the polarization fraction p ≈ 20% observed at 353 GHz. Taken together, these results provide strong constraints for models of Galactic dust in diffuse gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the distance to the North Polar Spur with Gaia DR2

ABSTRACT The North Polar Spur (NPS) is one of the largest structures observed in the Milky Way in both the radio and soft X-rays. While several predictions have been made regarding the origin of the NPS, modelling the structure is difficult without precise distance constraints. In this paper, we determine accurate distances to the southern terminus of the NPS and towards latitudes ranging up to 55°. First, we fit for the distance and extinction to stars towards the NPS using optical and near-infrared photometry and Gaia Data Release 2 astrometry. We model these per-star distance–extinction estimates as being caused by dust screens at unknown distances, which we fit for using a nested sampling algorithm. We then compare the extinction to the Spur derived from our 3D dust modelling with integrated independent measures from XMM–Newton X-ray absorption and H i column density measures. We find that we can account for nearly 100 per cent of the total column density of the NPS as lying within 140 pc for latitudes >26° and within 700 pc for latitudes <11°. Based on the results, we conclude that the NPS is not associated with the Galactic Centre or the Fermi bubbles. Instead, it is likely associated, especially at higher latitudes, with the Scorpius–Centaurus association.

Das, Kaustav K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Temporal Information from Human Mobility Data to Detect Anchor Points

Spatiotemporal mobility data are available in massive quantities, but large quantities of data typically include fewer variables or data fields. Often, the only available fields are User ID, Longitude, Latitude, Timestamp (ULLT). This raises an important question: how much can we infer about human mobility patterns using only these four fields? With ULLT data, we do not know individuals' socioeconomic status information or when they are visiting their anchor points (AP) or locations (such as homes, places of employment, or schools), and it is a modern challenge to use this data to infer these characteristics. When detecting anchor locations with limited input information, verification and validation (VV) are significant challenges. This paper addresses the problem of identifying individuals' anchor locations using only temporal information from spatiotemporal datasets with limited attributes. Our approach does not explicitly use latitude and longitude during analysis. Locationbased information is only employed in the preprocessing stage to identify periods of movement (trips) and stops (dwelling). Beyond this step, all analysis is based on temporal patterns. In theory, if stops and dwell times could be detected through alternative means, our method could function entirely without location-based input. We demonstrate this methodology on the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data, because it includes a carefully designed and collected time use survey with representative sampling and labeled ground truth. The high-quality survey data allows us to test the accuracy of our methods because NHTS contains intended place labels and agent/user characteristics. We have also applied our validated AP identification algorithm on very large-scale GPS based trajectory data for Patterns-of-Life (PoL) assessment and other applications, but due to space limit that could not be presented here.

McBride, Liz [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000286925869)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Rapid Permafrost Thaw on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes in a Warmer and Wetter Future (Final Technical Report)

When ice-rich permafrost thaws, the ground subsides, creating thermokarst landscapes with dramatically different soil conditions and carbon fluxes than the original ecosystem. Roughly 20% of the northern permafrost region is susceptible to thermokarst formation (Olefeldt et al., 2016). Thermokarst formation is often rapid; tens of meters of permafrost can thaw within a few years (Schuur et al., 2015). In topographically low areas, thermokarst thaw converts boreal forest or tundra dry shrub ecosystems into sedge or Sphagnum moss wetlands (Olefeldt et al., 2016). While this type of landscape transformation releases carbon stored in permafrost into the atmosphere, on longer time scales, it facilitates sequestration of atmospheric carbon in plant biomass because permafrost thaw releases plant-available nutrients and wetlands are highly productive (M. C. Jones et al., 2017). However, wetlands also generate methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Methane emissions from thermokarst wetlands can cause these carbon-sequestering systems to have a positive global warming potential (Johansson et al., 2006; Turetsky et al., 2007). Our project objective was to improve Earth System and environmental predictability by advancing understanding of how CO 2 and CH 4 flux in permafrost thaw-induced wetlands (thermokarst) will change in the future as temperatures and climate conditions shift. Northern latitudes are expected to get warmer and wetter (IPCC 2013), and initiation and expansion of thermokarst thaw is expected to increase (Jorgenson et al. 2006; Zhang et al. 2017). Given these expected changes, our work sought to address three broad questions: Q1) How will northern latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions respond to warming temperatures? Q2) What is the impact of precipitation on permafrost thaw and carbon emissions? Q3) How do CO2 and CH4 emissions change as wetlands age after permafrost thaw? To answer these questions, we took both a modeling and measurement approach. Modeling work was conducted with DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Empirical work took place in two primary locations. The first was a thermokarst site near Fairbanks, AK. The site is part of the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research program and is well instrumented (Neumann et al., 2019). The second was an isolated thawing permafrost wetland located on Kenai Peninsula — Brown’s Lake bog (B. M. Jones et al., 2016) — where the current climate is representative of what is expected at higher latitudes in the future. This site provides an ideal opportunity to test our hypotheses about how thermokarst wetland dynamics will respond to future environmental conditions. In addition, the project collaborated with researchers asking similar questions who were collecting measurements in high latitude post-glacial lakes located in collaborators tackling similar questions in Sweden (Stordalen Mire) (Emerson et al., 2021). Project efforts directly aligned with the stated goal of the funding opportunity announcement (FOA), which was “to improve the understanding and representation of terrestrial ecosystems in ways that advance Earth system model parameterizations and capabilities... thereby improving the quality of Earth and environmental model projections and providing the scientific foundation needed to support DOE’s science and energy missions.” Specifically, the project improved sophistication and accuracy of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), which is being developed primarily at DOE National Laboratories to support scientific research and decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parallax-corrected VISST-derived pixel-level products from satellite GOES-16

The NASA Langley group led by William Smith produced GOES-16 satellite cloud retrievals over an approximate 10 by 10 degree region over the CACTI field campaign location. These retrievals are described here: https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/vaps/visst and are available for download here . They use algorithms historically called VISST that are now referred to as SatCORPS. More information can be found in Trepte et al. (2019), Minnis et al. (2021), and Yost et al. (2021). If using this dataset, please cite these references, the CACTI VISST dataset DOI found at the download link above, and this dataset’s DOI. The CACTI VISST pixel-level retrievals are on a 2 km spatial grid and available every 15 minutes (every 10 minutes late in the campaign), producing 21,765 files for the entire field campaign between October 2018 and April 2019. They are not corrected for parallax error, which is an offset in the actual geographical location of a cloud above the surface due to the satellite viewing the cloud partly from the side off nadir. This dataset applies a correction for parallax using the location relative to the satellite and the retrieved cloud top height above the surface, which allows the dataset to be geo-located with surface-based observations. The parallax correction for each location depends on the longitude, latitude and cloud top height above ground level (AGL) for that longitude and latitude in the original VISST files. The cloud top height AGL requires first computing the surface elevation at each VISST grid point. Data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Map Version 3 at 30-m resolution is projected onto the VISST grid using conservative coarsening (conserving surface elevation) in the xESMF Python package. The surface elevation is then subtracted from the VISST-retrieved cloud top height above mean sea level. These cloud top heights AGL are then combined with longitude and latitude to estimate the latitude and longitude corrections. Due to variability in cloud top height, the parallax shifts produce an irregular grid of values since higher cloud tops are shifted further than lower cloud tops. A ball tree-based neighbor search with Haversine distance is performed using the Python-based scikit-learn library to find the nearest VISST grid point to each parallax correction-shifted point. The data value of the shifted point is then assigned to that VISST grid point. In this manner, the irregular geographical shifts to correct for parallax are projected back to the rectilinear VISST grid. Because relatively higher clouds should obscure lower clouds, the variable values for the highest cloud top are preferentially chosen if two or more values are assigned to a grid point. The parallax correction should be viewed as an improved but still imperfect estimation of the cloud top locations, largely because the cloud top height is an imperfect retrieval. Please see the attached README document for further information. Users are encouraged to contact the authors with any additional questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Latitudinal shifts of soil microbial biomass seasonality

Soil microbes ultimately drive the mineralization of soil organic carbon and thus ecosystem functions. We compiled a dataset of the seasonality of microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and developed a semi-mechanistic model to map monthly MBC across the globe. MBC exhibits an equatorially symmetric seasonality between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, MBC peaks in autumn and is minimal in spring at low latitudes (<25°N), peaks in the spring and is minimal in autumn at mid-latitudes (25°N to 50°N), while peaks in autumn and is minimal in spring at high latitudes (>50°N). This latitudinal shift of MBC seasonality is attributed to an interaction of soil temperature, soil moisture, and substrate availability. The MBC seasonality is inconsistent with patterns of heterotrophic respiration, indicating that MBC as a proxy for microbial activity is inappropriate at this resolution. This study highlights the need to explicitly represent microbial physiology in microbial models. The interactive controls of environments and substrate on microbial seasonality provide insights for better representing microbial mechanisms in simulating ecosystem functions at the seasonal scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plant physical defenses contribute to a latitudinal gradient in resistance to insect herbivory within a widespread perennial grass

Premise: Herbivore pressure can vary across the range of a species, resulting in different defensive strategies. If herbivory is greater at lower latitudes, plants may be better defended there, potentially driving a latitudinal gradient in defense. However, relationships that manifest across the entire range of a species may be confounded by differences within genetic subpopulations, which may obscure the drivers of these latitudinal gradients. Methods: We grew plants of the widespread perennial grass Panicum virgatum in a common garden that included genotypes from three genetic subpopulations spanning an 18.5° latitudinal gradient. We then assessed defensive strategies of these plants by measuring two physical resistance traits—leaf mass per area (LMA) and leaf ash, a proxy for silica—and multiple measures of herbivory by caterpillars of the generalist herbivore fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda). Results: Across all genetic subpopulations, low-latitude plants experienced less herbivory than high-latitude plants. Within genetic subpopulations, however, this relationship was inconsistent—the most widely distributed and phenotypically variable subpopulation (Atlantic) exhibited more consistent latitudinal trends than either of the other two subpopulations. The two physical resistance traits, LMA and leaf ash, were both highly heritable and positively associated with resistance to different measures of herbivory across all subpopulations, indicating their importance in defense against herbivores. Again, however, these relationships were inconsistent within subpopulations. Conclusions: Defensive gradients that occur across the entire species range may not arise within localized subpopulations. Thus, identifying the drivers of latitudinal gradients in herbivory defense may depend on adequately sampling the diversity within a species.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Concurrent Inter-Model Spread of Boreal Winter Westerly Jet Meridional Positions Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 Models

Here, this study investigates the inter-model spread of climatological extratropical westerly jets in boreal winter, using the historical simulation of 52 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models from 1851 to 2014. The results show that there is a substantial spread in the latitude of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet across models, characterised by large inter-model standard deviations to both the poleward and equatorward sides of the jet axis, although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) performs well in simulating meridional position of westerly jets. Furthermore, we detect the consistency of inter-model jet position spread between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation of regional-averaged zonal winds. Specifically, the models that simulate the westerly jets poleward/equatorward relative to the MME position in one hemisphere also tend to simulate the jets poleward/equatorward in the other hemisphere. Accordingly, we define a global jet spread index to depict the concurrence of jet shift in the two hemispheres. The results of inter-model regression analyses based on this index indicate that the models positioning the jets poleward than the MME tend to simulate a wider Hadley Cell, a poleward-shifted Ferrel Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation in the subtropics and suppressed precipitation in the tropics, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The present results suggest that improving the simulation of jet positions in climate models requires a comprehensive consideration of thermal states in the tropics and subtropics/mid latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Peatland Microbial Community Composition Is Driven by a Natural Climate Gradient

Peatlands are important players in climate change–biosphere feedbacks via long-term net carbon (C) accumulation in soil organic matter and as potential net C sources including the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH 4 ). Interactions of climate, site-hydrology, plant community, and groundwater chemical factors influence peatland development and functioning, including C dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 fluxes, but the role of microbial community composition is not well understood. To assess microbial functional and taxonomic dissimilarities, we used high throughput sequencing of the small subunit ribosomal DNA (SSU rDNA) to determine bacterial and archaeal community composition in soils from twenty North American peatlands. Targeted DNA metabarcoding showed that although Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, and Actinobacteria were the dominant phyla on average, intermediate and rich fens hosted greater diversity and taxonomic richness, as well as an array of candidate phyla when compared with acidic and nutrient-poor poor fens and bogs. Moreover, pH was revealed to be the strongest predictor of microbial community structure across sites. Predictive metagenome content (PICRUSt) showed increases in specific genes, such as purine/pyrimidine and amino-acid metabolism in mid-latitude peatlands from 38 to 45° N, suggesting a shift toward utilization of microbial biomass over utilization of initial plant biomass in these microbial communities. Overall, there appears to be noticeable differences in community structure between peatland classes, as well as differences in microbial metabolic activity between latitudes. Finally, these findings are in line with a predicted increase in the decomposition and accelerated C turnover, and suggest that peatlands north of 37° latitude may be particularly vulnerable to climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Asymmetric response of cross-equatorial ocean heat transport to latitudinal thermal forcing in CESM

The partitioning of cross-equatorial heat transport between the atmosphere and the ocean is investigated through a series of fully coupled experiments, where external radiative forcing is applied over different latitudinal bands. The modeling results reveal a first-order collaborative relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere. In response to low-latitude perturbations, the cross-equatorial heat transport is realized mainly through the atmosphere, as the total ocean heat transport (OHT) is largely offsets by its horizontal gyre component. However, as perturbations shift to higher latitudes in both hemispheres, the OHT responses become more important. Here, we also find a significant interhemispheric asymmetry in the cross-equatorial heat transport, with the OHT contribution being more important in the Southern Hemisphere. This asymmetry is mainly attributed to different responses in the changes of the ocean circulation. When the radiative forcing is placed over the Southern Ocean, a buoyancy-driven clockwise cell is generated that extends from the Southern Ocean into the tropics in both the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic basins, effectively transporting energy to the northern hemisphere. Conversely, when the radiative forcing is placed over the northern high latitudes, the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is responsible for the anomalous southward heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meso-Scale Electrodynamic Coupling of the Earth Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

Within the fully integrated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, many electrodynamic processes interact with each other. We review recent advances in understanding three major meso-scale coupling processes within the system: the transient field-aligned currents (FACs), mid-latitude plasma convection, and auroral particle precipitation. (1) Transient FACs arise due to disturbances from either dayside or nightside magnetosphere. As the interplanetary shocks suddenly compress the dayside magnetosphere, short-lived FACs are induced at high latitudes with their polarity successively changing. Magnetotail dynamics, such as substorm injections, can also disturb the current structures, leading to the formation of substorm current wedges and ring current disruption. (2) The mid-latitude plasma convection is closely associated with electric fields in the system. Recent studies have unraveled some important features and mechanisms of subauroral fast flows. (3) Charged particles, while drifting around the Earth, often experience precipitating loss down to the upper atmosphere, enhancing the auroral conductivity. Recent studies have been devoted to developing more self-consistent geospace circulation models by including a better representation of the auroral conductance. It is expected that including these new advances in geospace circulation models could promisingly strengthen their forecasting capability in space weather applications. The remaining challenges especially in the global modeling of the circulation system are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local summer insolation and greenhouse gas forcing drove warming and glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Holocene

Geological climate archives from the Holocene Epoch provide baseline information concerning natural climate variability. Temperate mountain glacier extent is sensitive to summer air temperature, thus geological records of past glacier length changes are a useful proxy for this climatic variable. Here we present a new cosmogenic 10 Be chronology of glacier length changes at Dart Glacier in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. Prominent moraines deposited 321 ± 44 yr ago (n = 11) and 7.8 ± 0.3 ka (n = 5) show glaciers during the Little Ice Age were less extensive than during the early Holocene. This pattern of net Holocene glacier retreat is consistent with emerging data from other catchments in New Zealand and across the southern mid-latitudes. Using the physical framework of a transient global climate model simulation, we suggest that cool summers in the early Holocene were promoted by the local summer insolation minimum, together with low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, causing an early Holocene austral glacial maximum. An insolation-driven reduction in seasonality at southern mid-latitudes may reconcile differences between early Holocene temperature reconstructions where climate proxies have different seasonal sensitivities. Furthermore, we suggest that rising greenhouse gas concentrations after 7 ka caused regional-scale glacier retreat and appear to be the dominant driver of multi-millennial summer temperature trends in the southern mid-latitudes during the present interglacial.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends

Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960-2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (versus land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (versus mid- and high-latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record-breaking events over land versus ocean. Furthermore, our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes

Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. In this study, we assessed the performance of a 1-D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were below 2 °C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full-profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71 °C and 1.43 °C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine-learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high-latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind-driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1-D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

WACCM6 Projections of Polar Mesospheric Cloud Abundance Over the 21st Century

Polar mesospheric clouds (PMC), or noctilucent clouds, can be observed over high latitudes with the naked eye from the ground or from space near the summer solstice. PMC are considered a direct and sensitive indicator of climate change and have been reported to appear more frequently in recent decades. How PMC will change in the future under the influence of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing is uncertain. In this study, we utilize model output from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model under several shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and input the water vapor, temperature, and pressure information into a 0-d PMC model to project the trend and variation of PMC over the 21st century, and their relationship to future changes of temperature, water vapor, and the solar cycle. The 0-d model calculations indicate that PMC ice water content (IWC) will increase and PMC will extend to lower latitudes under high SSP scenarios. Under these scenarios, more mesospheric water vapor leads to an increased IWC of PMC over the polar region, and colder mesopause temperature leads to more PMC over the mid-latitudes. There is a significant anti-correlation between the solar cycle and PMC IWC over the 21st century, but the anti-correlation is not always significant on the decadal scale. Finally, methane oxidation in the stratosphere and water vapor entering from the troposphere are both responsible for future changes in mesospheric water vapor and thus PMC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗