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DOE OSTI2026

A Nonparametric Method for the Inference of Halo Occupation Distributions

The galaxy–halo connection traces processes by which galaxies form and evolve. The halo occupation distribution (HOD) describes the relationship between galaxies and their host dark matter haloes. Measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function (2PCF) allow us to extract information about the HODs of observed galaxy samples. Several parametric HOD models have been proposed in the literature, but the choice of parameterization restricts the space of possible HODs. To resolve this issue, we introduce a nonparametric HOD fitting method in which we train an emulator to learn the mappings among the galaxy 2PCF, physical properties used to select galaxy samples, and the HOD, all obtained from simulated past light cones constructed with the Santa Cruz semianalytic model. Implementing this emulator within a likelihood analysis framework, we derive constraints on the HOD of a galaxy sample when provided with a measurement of its 2PCF. Using the emulator to accelerate likelihood evaluations, we test the nonparametric HOD approach on a set of 2PCFs for mock galaxy samples drawn from the TNG100-1 simulation and selected above threshold values of stellar mass and star formation rate. Our framework is able to recover TNG100-1 HODs within 0.2 dex. We use the TNG100-1 mocks to tune the reported uncertainties to estimate those expected in the analysis of observations. Comparing to parametric HOD modelling routines applied to the same mock galaxy samples, our approach consistently infers the HOD with comparable or greater precision and accuracy.

Kennedy, Jacob [Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stokes-dependent droplet collection efficiency on a NACA 0012 airfoil from droplet-informed simulations with statistical overloading

Accurate modelling of ice accretion on aircraft wings requires analysing droplet impingement on the surface to optimize the design of ice-protection systems. We perform Euler–Lagrange simulations of a droplet-laden flow impinging on a NACA 0012 airfoil. Our study includes water droplets with eight discrete sizes ranging from 1 to 160 microns. We vary the free-stream velocity of the incoming airflow in the range 60 ≤ U ≤ 240 m s −1 and the chord length of the airfoil in the range 0.5 ≤ c ≤ 2 m. Due to the dilute nature of supercooled clouds, one-way coupling is used in the simulations. The effects of droplet breakup and collision are also neglected. To reduce the computational cost, we employ statistical overloading of droplets, allowing us to simulate millions of impinging droplets in a time span on the order of milliseconds. Our results show that the droplet collection efficiency, which measures the likelihood of droplet impingement on the airfoil surface, increases with droplet size and free-stream velocity but decreases with airfoil size. We demonstrate that collection efficiency, impingement velocity and impingement angle are primarily dictated by a single non-dimensional parameter, the droplet Stokes number. We also identify a critical stagnation-streamline Stokes number below which impingements do not occur and use it to estimate the minimum droplet size for impingement. In addition, we observe droplet behaviour to become Stokes number independent at large values of the Stokes number. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A copula-based rank histogram ensemble filter

Serial ensemble filters implement triangular probability transport maps to reduce high-dimensional inference problems to sequences of state-by-state univariate inference problems. The univariate inference problems are solved by sampling posterior probability densities obtained by combining constructed prior densities with observational likelihoods according to Bayes' rule. Many serial filters in the literature focus on representing the marginal posterior densities of each state. However, rigorously capturing the conditional dependencies between the different univariate inferences is crucial to correctly sampling multidimensional posteriors. This work proposes a new serial ensemble filter, called the copula rank histogram filter (CoRHF), that seeks to capture the conditional dependency structure between variables via empirical copula estimates; these estimates are used to rigorously implement the triangular (state-by-state univariate) Bayesian inference. The success of the CoRHF is demonstrated on two-dimensional examples and the Lorenz'63 problem. A practical extension to the high-dimensional setting is developed by localizing the empirical copula estimation, and is demonstrated on the Lorenz'96 problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photoproduction of the Σ + hyperon using linearly polarized photons with CLAS

Measurements of the polarization observables Σ, P, T, O x , O z for the reaction $\vec{γ}$ p → $K^0_S$Σ + using a linearly polarized photon beam of energy 1.1 to 2.1 GeV are reported. The measured data provide information on a channel that has not been studied extensively, but is required for a full coupled-channel analysis in the nucleon resonance region. Observables have been simultaneously extracted using likelihood sampling with a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo process. Angular distributions in bins of photon energy E γ are produced for each polarization observable. T, O x , and O z are first time measurements of these observables in this reaction. The extraction of Σ extends the energy range beyond a previous measurement. The measurement of P, the recoil polarization, is consistent with previous measurements. The measured data are shown to be significant enough to affect the estimation of the nucleon resonance parameters when fitted within a coupled-channels model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Expansion of the Direct Feed High-Level Waste Glass Composition in the High Al Range

Baseline glass compositions have been developed and demonstrated for successful immobilization of Hanford high-level waste (HLW) prepared through a pretreatment process. Recent enhanced waste glass formulations have shown promise to increase the waste loading of pretreated sludge compositions from a broader range of HLW feeds. This project proposes to increase the loading of minimally pretreated Hanford HLW in glass by expanding the existing database and glass property-composition models. Estimated direct-feed high level waste (DFHLW) compositions were generated by the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor and used by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to determine target glass compositions. Gaps in existing data were identified including one high-priority gap in the high Al compositional region. This report summarizes the data collected during the characterization of the DFHLW High Al Glass Matrix. These glasses were intentionally designed with high aluminum concentrations (15 to 30 wt%) and a high likelihood of nepheline formation, which is known to negatively affect glass durability. Some glasses were expected to either fail or approach property constraints to fill data gaps in poorly understood regions of the compositional space due to lack of data. Out of the 50 glasses tested, 14 glasses formed nepheline, while the model predicted nepheline formation in 20 glasses. All quenched glasses met the product consistency test durability constraint; however, 8 glasses failed this constraint after undergoing the canister centerline cooling treatment. Additionally, 17 glasses did not meet the viscosity constraints, 4 failed the EC constraints, and 2 exceeded the allowable T2% for spinel crystal formation. All glasses satisfied the SO 3 solubility limit. The resulting dataset provides valuable information to improve model accuracy and reduce prediction uncertainty. These insights will ultimately support the development of more robust glass formulation strategies, enabling higher waste loadings, reducing operational risks, and expanding the processing envelope.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization

Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.

Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗

DOE OSTI2026

SPT-3G D1: Quadratic-Estimator CMB Lensing Reconstruction and Cosmology

We present a map of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential reconstructed from observations taken during the 2019 and 2020 seasons with the third-generation camera on the South Pole Telescope (SPT), covering the $1500\,{\rm deg}^{2}$ SPT-3G Main field, referred to as the SPT-3G D1 dataset. From the multi-frequency temperature and polarization data, we reconstruct the CMB lensing field using a quadratic estimator that jointly accounts for the $T$, $E$, and $B$ fields and their covariance. The resulting lensing map is dominated by polarization information for $L \lesssim 600$ and provides the highest signal-to-noise measurement per mode reported to date. With nuisance parameters fixed to their best-fit values, we measure a lensing amplitude consistent with unity at $2\%$ precision relative to the $Λ$CDM model that best fits the combined Planck, ACT DR6, and SPT-3G D1 $TT/TE/EE$ likelihoods (${\rm CMB}_{\rm SPA}$). We further measure the structure-growth parameter $σ_{8}Ω_{\rm m}^{0.25}$ to be $0.6046\pm0.0096$ from the SPT-3G D1 lensing spectrum alone and $0.6020\pm0.0084$ when combined with ACT DR6 and Planck PR4 CMB lensing. By further combining this with ${\rm CMB}_{\rm SPA}$ and the latest DESI DR2 BAO data, we obtain $\sum m_ν < 0.072\,\mathrm{eV}$ (95% C.L.) when allowing the neutrino mass to vary within $Λ$CDM. Compared with previous work, the better agreement of our measurement with DESI DR2 BAO yields both this relaxed upper bound and reduced ($\mathord{\sim}2σ$) preferences for nonzero spatial curvature and for deviations of $(w_0,w_a)$ from the $Λ$CDM expectation. When we combine CMB lensing with the DES Y3 3$\times$2pt analysis, we obtain $S_{8}=0.811\pm0.011$, corresponding to a $1.4\%$ constraint on the late-time clustering amplitude. This precision is competitive with that obtained from the primary CMB within $Λ$CDM.

Omori, Y. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.; Ch↗

DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 power spectrum foreground model and validation

We discuss the model of astrophysical emission at millimeter wavelengths used to characterize foregrounds in the multi-frequency power spectra of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6), expanding on Louis et al. (2025) (2503.14452). We detail several tests to validate the capability of the DR6 parametric foreground model to describe current observations and complex simulations, and show that cosmological parameter constraints are robust against model extensions and variations. We demonstrate consistency of the model with pre-DR6 ACT data and observations from Planck and the South Pole Telescope. We evaluate the implications of using different foreground templates and extending the model with new components and/or free parameters. In all scenarios, the DR6 ΛCDM and ΛCDM+N eff cosmological parameters shift by less than 0.5σ relative to the baseline constraints. Some foreground parameters shift more; we estimate their systematic uncertainties associated with modeling choices. From our constraint on the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich power, we obtain a conservative limit on the duration of reionization of Δz rei < 4.4, assuming a reionization midpoint consistent with optical depth measurements and a minimal low-redshift contribution, with varying assumptions for this component leading to tighter limits. Finally, we analyze realistic non-Gaussian, correlated microwave sky simulations containing Galactic and extragalactic foreground fields, built independently of the DR6 parametric foreground model. Processing these simulations through the DR6 power spectrum and likelihood pipeline, we recover the input cosmological parameters of the underlying cosmic microwave background field, a new demonstration for small-scale CMB analysis. These tests validate the robustness of the ACT DR6 foreground model and cosmological parameter constraints.

CMBR experiments↗

DOE OSTI2024

Precise cosmological constraints from BOSS galaxy clustering with a simulation-based emulator of the wavelet scattering transform

For this study, we perform a reanalysis of the BOSS CMASS DR12 galaxy dataset using a simulation-based emulator for the wavelet scattering transform (WST) coefficients. Moving beyond our previous works, which laid the foundation for the first galaxy clustering application of this estimator, we construct a neural net-based emulator for the cosmological dependence of the WST coefficients and the 2-point correlation function multipoles, trained from the state-of-the-art suite of abacussummit simulations combined with a flexible halo occupation distribution (HOD) galaxy model. In order to confirm the accuracy of our pipeline, we subject it to a series of thorough internal and external mock parameter recovery tests, before applying it to reanalyze the CMASS observations in the redshift range 0.46 < z < 0.57. We find that a joint WST+2-point correlation function likelihood analysis allows us to obtain marginalized 1⁢σ errors on the Λ⁢ CDM parameters that are tighter by a factor of 2.5–6, compared to the 2-point correlation function, and by a factor of 1.4–2.5 compared to the WST-only results. This corresponds to a competitive 0.9%, 2.3% and 1% level of determination for parameters ω c , ⁢σ 8 &n s , respectively, and also to a 0.7% and 2.5% constraint on derived parameters h and ƒ⁡(z)⁢⁢σ 8 ⁡(z), in agreement with the Planck 2018 results. Our results reaffirm the constraining power of the WST and highlight the exciting prospect of employing higher-order statistics in order to fully exploit the power of upcoming stage-IV spectroscopic observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

HighDimMixedModels.jl: Robust high-dimensional mixed-effects models across omics data

High-dimensional mixed-effects models are an increasingly important form of regression in which the number of covariates rivals or exceeds the number of samples, which are collected in groups or clusters. The penalized likelihood approach to fitting these models relies on a coordinate descent algorithm that lacks guarantees of convergence to a global optimum. Here, we empirically study the behavior of this algorithm on simulated and real examples of three types of data that are common in modern biology: transcriptome, genome-wide association, and microbiome data. Our simulations provide new insights into the algorithm’s behavior in these settings, and, comparing the performance of two popular penalties, we demonstrate that the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty consistently outperforms the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty in terms of both variable selection and estimation accuracy across omics data. To empower researchers in biology and other fields to fit models with the SCAD penalty, we implement the algorithm in a Julia package, HighDimMixedModels.jl .

Gorstein, Evan↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Deep Look at the Ultra-Faint Milky Way Satellite Virgo III with Rubin Observatory Data Preview 2

We analyze the ultra-faint Milky Way satellite Virgo III using data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Data Preview 2 (DP2). Virgo III was observed in the Rubin "Cosmic Treasure Chest" (M49) First Look field, which contains 924 visits in the u,g,r,i bands comprising ~10.5hrs of exposure time with LSSTCam. These data are considerably deeper than the majority of DP2, with a $5σ$ limiting magnitude that approaches the expected 10-year depth of LSST (~25.2-26.5mag, depending on band). We report the morphological and stellar population parameters of Virgo III measured with the maximum-likelihood-based package ugali. The depth of the Rubin imaging yields more than a factor of four increase in the number of candidate member stars ($N_* = 114^{+11}_{-11}$) relative to the Virgo III discovery results ($N_* = 25^{+5}_{-4}$), enabling significantly more precise morphological constraints. Our best-fit parameters broadly agree with previous measurements, further confirming that Virgo III has properties that are consistent with an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy ($M_V = -2.72^{+0.49}_{-0.70}$; $r_{1/2} = 53^{+10}_{-8}$) located at a heliocentric distance of $D_\odot = 151^{+8}_{-8}$. We also demonstrate that the depth and photometric quality of the DP2 data are sufficient to separate metal-poor and metal-rich stars in color-color space. We further present period estimates for the three known RR Lyrae member stars derived from the DP2 forced photometry; we use theoretical Period-Luminosity-Metallicity (PLZ) and Period-Wesenheit-Metallicity (PWZ) relations to obtain independent distance estimates. We find that our period and distance estimates are broadly consistent with previous measurements for these RR Lyrae. These results demonstrate the power of LSST data for the discovery and characterization of ultra-faint dwarf galaxies and motivate future searches for new satellites across the southern sky.

Pai, Aashay [Chicago U.; Chicago U., KICP; SkAI, C↗

DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new Monte Carlo generator for BSM physics in B → K*ℓ+ℓ− decays with an application to lepton non-universality in angular distributions

Abstract Within the widely used EvtGen framework, we have added a new event generator model forB → K * ℓ + ℓ − with improved standard model (SM) decay amplitudes and possible BSM physics contributions, which are implemented in the operator product expansion in terms of Wilson coefficients. This event generator can then be used to estimate the statistical sensitivity of a simulated experiment to the most general BSM signal resulting from dimension-six operators. We describe the advantages and potential of the newly developed ‘Sibidanov Physics Generator’ in improving the experimental sensitivity of searches for lepton non-universal BSM physics and clarifying signatures. The new generator can properly simulate BSM scenarios, interference between SM and BSM amplitudes, and correlations between different BSM observables as well as acceptance bias. We show that exploiting such correlations substantially improves experimental sensitivity. As a demonstration of the utility of the MC generator, we examine the prospects for improved measurements of lepton non-universality in angular distributions forB→K * ℓ + ℓ − decays from the expected 50 ab −1 data set of the Belle II experiment, using a four-dimensional unbinned maximum likelihood fit. We describe promising experimental signatures and correlations between observables. The use of lepton-universality violating ∆-observables significantly reduces uncertainties in the SM expectations due to QCD and resonance effects and is ideally suited for Belle II with the large data sets expected in the next decade. Thanks to the clean experimental environment of ane + e − machine, Belle II should be able to probe BSM physics in the Wilson coefficientsC 7 and$$ {C}_7^{\prime } $$ C 7 ′ , which appear at lowq 2 in the di-electron channel.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of normalization strategies for mass spectrometry-based multi-omics datasets

Introduction Data normalization is crucial for multi-omics integration, reducing systematic errors and maximizing the likelihood of discovering true biological variation. Most studies assess normalization for a single omics type or use datasets from separate experiments. Few address time-course data, where normalization might bias temporal differentiation. In this study, we compared common normalization methods and a machine learning approach, Systematical Error Removal using Random Forest (SERRF), using multi-omics datasets generated from the same experiment—even from the same cell lysate. Objectives To develop a straightforward process to assess normalization effects and identify the most robust methods across multi-omics datasets. Methods We analyzed metabolomics, lipidomics, and proteomics datasets from primary human cardiomyocytes and motor neurons exposed to acetylcholine-active compounds over time. Normalization effectiveness was evaluated based on improvement in QC features consistency and observing the change in treatment and time-related variance. Results Probabilistic Quotient Normalization (PQN) and Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) QC were identified as optimal for metabolomics and lipidomics, while PQN, Median, and LOESS normalization excelled for proteomics. These methods consistently enhanced QC feature consistency in metabolomics and lipidomics, and preserved time-related variance or treatment-related variance in proteomics, demonstrating their effectiveness and robustness. SERRF normalization, applied only to metabolomics in this study, outperformed other methods in some datasets but inadvertently masked treatment-related variance in others. Conclusion Our evaluation identified PQN and LoessQC as the top methods for metabolomics and lipidomics, and PQN, Median, and Loess normalization for proteomics, in multi-omics integration in a temporal study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Soil application of high-lignin fermentation byproduct to increase the sustainability of liquid biofuel production from crop residues

When digestates from anaerobic digestion of crop residues are added to soil, a considerable body of information indicates that soil organic carbon (SOC) levels are comparable to those when crop residues are left in the field. This occurs although the amount of digestate added to soil is diminished by digestion and implies that digestion increases the proportion of carbon inputs stabilized as SOC. Here we examine the likelihood and implications of these features being manifested for soil application of high lignin-fermentation byproduct (HLFB) from liquid biofuel production. We show that steady-state SOC levels are much less sensitive to crop residue removal with HLFB return than without it, and provide an example supporting the feasibility of foregoing process energy and coproduct revenue when HLFB is returned to the soil. Informed by this review and analysis, we expect with moderate confidence that long-term SOC levels for soils amended with HLFB from some liquid cellulosic biofuel processes will not be substantially lower than those occurring when crop residues are left in the field. We have high confidence that the economically optimum rate of fertilizer nitrogen (N) application and N 2 O emissions will be lower at most sites for HLFB return to the soil than if crop residues were left in the field. We estimate that the per hectare N demand for processing crop residues to liquid biofuels is about a third of the per hectare demand for crop production, giving rise to an opportunity to use N twice and thereby realize cost savings and environmental benefits. These observations support but do not prove the hypothesis that a ‘win-win’ is possible wherein large amounts of liquid biofuel feedstock can be obtained from crop residues while improving the economics and sustainability of food and feed production. A research agenda aimed at exploring and testing this hypothesis is offered.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗