A surrogate model for predicting ground surface deformation gradient induced by pressurized fractures
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58 GEOSCIENCES↗
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Results for “machine learning surrogate”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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An finite element analysis surrogate model with boundary oriented graph embedding approach for rapid design
Abstract In this work, we present a boundary oriented graph embedding (BOGE) approach for the graph neural network to assist in rapid design and digital prototyping. The cantilever beam problem has been solved as an example to validate its potential of providing physical field results and optimized designs using only 10 ms. Providing shortcuts for both boundary elements and local neighbor elements, the BOGE approach can embed unstructured mesh elements into the graph and performs an efficient regression on large-scale triangular-mesh-based finite element analysis (FEA) results, which cannot be realized by other machine-learning-based surrogate methods. It has the potential to serve as a surrogate model for other boundary value problems. Focusing on the cantilever beam problem, the BOGE approach with 3-layer DeepGCN model achieves the regression with mean square error (MSE) of 0.011 706 (2.41% mean absolute percentage error) for stress field prediction and 0.002 735 MSE (with 1.58% elements having error larger than 0.01) for topological optimization. The overall concept of the BOGE approach paves the way for a general and efficient deep-learning-based FEA simulator that will benefit both industry and Computer Aided Design (CAD) design-related areas.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Iterative sampling of expensive simulations for faster deep surrogate training
Deep neural network (DNN) surrogates of expensive physics simulations are enabling a rapid change in the way that common experimental design and analysis tasks are approached. Surrogate models allow simulations to be performed in parallel and separately from downstream tasks, thereby enabling analyses that would be impossible with the simulation in-the-loop; surrogates based on DNNs can effectively emulate diverse non-scalar data of the types collected in fusion and laboratory-astrophysics experiments. The challenge is in training the surrogate model, for which large ensembles of physics simulations must be run, preferably without wasting computational effort on uninteresting simulations. Here, in this paper, we present an iterative sampling scheme that can preferentially propose simulations in interesting regions of parameter space without neglecting unexplored regions, allowing high-quality and wide-ranging surrogate models to be trained using 2–3 times fewer simulations compare to space-filling designs. Our approach uses an explicit importance function defined on the simulation output space, balanced against a measure of simulation density which serves as a proxy for surrogate accuracy. It is easy to implement and can be tuned to find interesting simulations early in the study, allowing surrogates to be trained quickly and refined as new simulations become available; this represents an important step towards the routine generation of deep surrogate models quickly enough to be truly relevant to experimental work.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Surrogate modelling for urban building energy simulation based on the bidirectional long short-term memory model
Here, the urban microclimate is essential for accurate simulation-based urban building energy modelling (UBEM). However, a high spatial-resolution microclimate can increase the computational resources demands of UBEM. Surrogate modelling is one of the promising approaches for fast UBEM. This study proposes a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based approach for simulation-based UBEM surrogate modelling. The estimations are aggregated into census tracts using total building floor area. A case study using UBEM to estimate annual hourly building energy use and anthropogenic heat from all existing buildings in Los Angeles County found that most of the surrogate models can complete the annual hourly simulation within 90 minutes with a normalized mean absolute error lower than 10%, and that the bidirectional LSTM outperforms the standard LSTM in accuracy. This study demonstrates the advantages of bidirectional RNN architecture in building energy surrogate modelling and is expected to promote long-term and high-resolution UBEM with detailed microclimates.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Improved surrogates in inertial confinement fusion with manifold and cycle consistencies
Neural networks have become the method of choice in surrogate modeling because of their ability to characterize arbitrary, high-dimensional functions in a data-driven fashion. This paper advocates for the training of surrogates that are 1) consistent with the physical manifold, resulting in physically meaningful predictions, and 2) cyclically consistent with a jointly trained inverse model; i.e., backmapping predictions through the inverse results in the original input parameters. We find that these two consistencies lead to surrogates that are superior in terms of predictive performance, are more resilient to sampling artifacts, and tend to be more data efficient. Using inertial confinement fusion (ICF) as a test-bed problem, we model a one-dimensional semianalytic numerical simulator and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Creep and Creep Fracture Modeling with Surrogate Creep Models and the Extended Finite Element Method
Alloy components in advanced nuclear reactors will be subjected to environmental conditions that could include high temperatures, irradiation, and exposure to corrosive salts. These conditions could lead to the formation of crack-like defects, which could grow over time in a mechanism known as creep crack growth (CCG). Predicting growth rates of these defects is important for assessing the safe operating life of advanced reactors. This project documents progress toward developing and testing next-generation data-driven constitutive models for deformation creep. It also documents the application of the extended finite element method in conjunction with surrogate creep models to predict CCG parameters under a variety of conditions. These important incremental developments contribute to the longer-term objective of developing microstructure-aware constitutive models that can be used for predicting creep deformation and CCG at the component scale with improved accuracy.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Sequence modeling of higher-order wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers
Higher-order gravitational wave modes from quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary-black-hole (BBH) mergers encode rich information about the nonlinear dynamics of strong-field gravity. We present a transformer-based sequence-completion surrogate that, given an early-inspiral segment, forecasts the subsequent late inspiral, merger, and ringdown. The intended applications are (i) patching or completing expensive or interrupted numerical-relativity (NR) simulations and (ii) providing late-time cross-checks and rapid hybridization studies. The training set is built from the NRHybSur3dq8 surrogate, which provides spherical-harmonic modes up to $\ell$ ≤ 4 (excluding (4, 0) and (4,±1), and including (5, 5)) for mass ratios q ≤ 8, dimensionless spin components s$^{z}_{1,2}$ ϵ[–0.8, 0.8], and inclination angles θ ϵ [0, π]. Waveforms are supplied on the interval t ϵ [–5000M, –100 M) and the model autoregressively generates the plus and cross polarizations (h + , h x ) on t ϵ [–100 M, 130M]. Training on the Delta supercomputer with 16 NVIDIA A100 GPUs required ~15 h on more than 14 million hybrid waveforms. Evaluation on a held-out test set of 840,000 samples yields mean and median overlaps of 0.996 and 0.997, respectively, with respect to the surrogate ground truth.
black-hole merger↗
Surrogates for Valve-Controlled Pipe Flow: Accelerating Nuclear Reactor Design
Neural surrogate models are developed to replace expensive steady-state RANS CFD simulations for valve-controlled pipe flow in nuclear reactor design. Using parametric CFD data generated with MOOSE Pronghorn across a range of valve geometry and flow conditions, three approaches are compared: a POD-based reduced-order model, a structured UNet on a cylindrical grid, and unstructured models (DeepONet and BiStride MeshGraphNet) on nondimensionalized point clouds. POD achieves the highest accuracy (99%) with fast inference but requires storing all solution snapshots, while the DeepONet and BSMS-GNN both achieve ~89% accuracy at sub-second inference, with the BSMS-GNN offering superior geometric generalizability. These surrogates enable rapid ranking of candidate valve designs and can warm-start CFD solvers to accelerate convergence, supporting agentic design iteration on the Prometheus platform.
42 - ENGINEERING↗
Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations
We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Tutorial: Machine-Learning-Based CREASE-2D Analysis of 2D SAXS Profiles to Characterize Anisotropic Nanostructures in Soft Materials
We present a tutorial to guide users on how to extend the Computational Reverse Engineering Analysis of Scattering Experiments-2D (CREASE-2D) framework to interpret their experimental two-dimensional small-angle scattering (SAS) data from soft materials (e.g., polymers, peptide amphiphiles, biomolecular fibrils). Unlike most traditional SAS analysis approaches, which typically rely on azimuthally averaged onedimensional (1D) profiles, CREASE-2D utilizes the complete 2D scattering profile to reveal information about anisotropy in the structure. In past applications, CREASE has provided insights into complex structural features, including the cross-sectional shapes of assembled nanostructures and dispersity in these features, which are difficult to discern with existing analytical models. While (1D- ) CREASE has been applied to SANS and SAXS data, this tutorial shares the steps for implementing CREASE-2D using an example of a dipeptide solution system, for which we have SAXS data. We present details for these steps involved in using CREASE-2D to interpret SAXS profiles: how to preprocess SAXS data, define relevant structural features, generate three-dimensional real-space structures for specific values of these features, train a machine learning (ML) surrogate model to predict scattering profiles for given structural features, and optimize these features using genetic algorithms (GA). Then, we use these steps to interpret complex 2DSAXS data collected from dipeptide solutions that, in microscopy images, exhibit nanoscale structures that could be elliptical tubes/ flat tapes/cylinders or a combination of these cross sections. Open-source codes, computational hardware, and software requirements, as well as the strengths and limitations of this protocol, are also presented. We expect researchers working with (soft) biomaterials, peptide amphiphiles, amphiphilic polymer solutions, polymer nanocomposites, and blends of particles/polymers will find this CREASE-2D method and this tutorial of use.
CREASE↗
Latent space mapping: Revolutionizing predictive models for divertor plasma detachment control
The inherent complexity of boundary plasma, characterized by multi-scale and multi-physics challenges, has historically restricted high-fidelity simulations to scientific research due to their intensive computational demands. Consequently, routine applications such as discharge control and scenario development have relied on faster but less accurate empirical methods. This work introduces DivControlNN, a novel machine-learning-based surrogate model designed to address these limitations by enabling quasi-real-time predictions (i.e., ~ 0.2 ms) of boundary and divertor plasma behavior. Trained on over 70,000 2D UEDGE simulations from KSTAR tokamak equilibria, DivControlNN employs latent space mapping to efficiently represent complex divertor plasma states, achieving a computational speed-up of over 10 8 compared to traditional simulations while maintaining a relative error below 20% for key plasma property predictions. During the 2024 KSTAR experimental campaign, a prototype detachment control system powered by DivControlNN successfully demonstrated detachment control on its first attempt, even for a new tungsten divertor configuration and without any fine-tuning. These results highlight the transformative potential of DivControlNN in overcoming diagnostic challenges in future fusion reactors by providing fast, robust, and reliable predictions for advanced integrated control systems.
Artificial neural networks↗
A New Reduced Order Model For The Mechanistic Creep Behavior Of UO 2
This manuscript describes an ongoing NEAMS effort to better determine the performance of advanced nuclear fuels, in particular the creep behavior of doped UO$_2$ for light water reactors. In our previous work, we outlined a method to utilize data generated from lower length scale simulations and implement it into the engineering scale fuel performance analysis. This process has been further refined, and in addition, new data has been used to train the surrogate model which has also been substantially improved since the previous iteration. The new model is compared against the current empirical model used in BISON using both scoping calculations to define the performance over the parameter space and using integral instrumented fuel assessment cases to determine the impact of these models on the overall fuel performance. Suggestions and guidance for future improvements to this method are provided to ensure the model covers relevant parameter space and phenomena.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Multi-objective goal-directed optimization of de novo stable organic radicals for aqueous redox flow batteries
Abstract Advances in the field of goal-directed molecular optimization offer the promise of finding feasible candidates for even the most challenging molecular design applications. One example of a fundamental design challenge is the search for novel stable radical scaffolds for an aqueous redox flow battery that simultaneously satisfy redox requirements at the anode and cathode, as relatively few stable organic radicals are known to exist. To meet this challenge, we develop a new open-source molecular optimization framework based on AlphaZero coupled with a fast, machine-learning-derived surrogate objective trained with nearly 100,000 quantum chemistry simulations. The objective function comprises two graph neural networks: one that predicts adiabatic oxidation and reduction potentials and a second that predicts electron density and local three-dimensional environment, previously shown to be correlated with radical persistence and stability. With no hard-coded knowledge of organic chemistry, the reinforcement learning agent finds molecule candidates that satisfy a precise combination of redox, stability and synthesizability requirements defined at the quantum chemistry level, many of which have reasonable predicted retrosynthetic pathways. The optimized molecules show that alternative stable radical scaffolds may offer a unique profile of stability and redox potentials to enable low-cost symmetric aqueous redox flow batteries.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Inferring fracture dilation and shear slip from surface deformation utilising trained surrogate models
An important task in energy and CO 2 storage (sequestration) in the subsurface is to verify that the surrounding fractures and faults are not activated, acting as leakage pathways. This is achievable through effective and efficient Measurement, Monitoring and Verification (MMV) plans. In this work, two surrogate models are trained to captures dilation (opening) and shear deformation of fractures, and the associated surface deformation. The trained surrogate model, based on conditional Generative-Adversarial Networks (cGAN) receives fracture apertures from dilational fractures together with fracture slips from shear fractures and predicts the combined surface deformation. An inversion algorithm based on Bayesian framework is proposed to identify the geometry of both types of fractures, as well as volume of dilational fractures and deformation moment induced by shear fractures, all from the measured surface deformation data. The inversion algorithm utilises the Differential Evolution (DE) optimisation technique that has the superior performance in finding the global minimum of cost function. The proposed surrogate-assisted inversion successfully inferred the unknown dip, dip direction and the volume of the dilational fractures as well as the induced deformation moment in shear fractures. The model was further tested for the inversion of a field hydraulic fracturing tilt dataset applying different scenarios with varying unknowns to show the model's performance, as well as incorporating shear deformation for better match with the observed data.
Dilation and shear↗
Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys
We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.
Alloy design↗
Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest
Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries
Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Projection-based multifidelity linear regression for data-scarce applications
Surrogate modeling for systems with high-dimensional quantities of interest remains challenging, particularly when training data are costly to acquire. This work develops multifidelity methods for multiple-input multiple-output linear regression targeting data-limited applications with high-dimensional outputs. Multifidelity methods integrate many inexpensive low-fidelity model evaluations with limited, costly high-fidelity evaluations. We introduce two projection-based multifidelity linear regression approaches with linear and nonlinear features that leverage principal component basis vectors for dimensionality reduction and combine multifidelity data through: (i) a direct data augmentation using low-fidelity data, and (ii) a data augmentation incorporating explicit linear corrections between low-fidelity and high-fidelity data. The data augmentation approaches combine high-fidelity and low-fidelity data into a unified training set and train the linear regression model through weighted least squares with fidelity-specific weights. We introduce a proximity-based weighting scheme with automatic weight selection strategy through cross-validation. Here, the proposed multifidelity linear regression methods are demonstrated on approximating the surface pressure field of a hypersonic vehicle in flight and the temperature field on an aircraft disc braking system. In an ultra low-data regime of no more than twelve high-fidelity samples, multifidelity linear regression achieves approximately 2% – 12% improvement in median accuracy and a higher R 2 score relative to single-fidelity methods at comparable computational cost.
data augmentation↗