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DOE OSTI2021

A Statistics-Based Threshold for the RMS-Energy Oscillation Detector

System operators and reliability coordinators currently rely on extensive baselining studies to set thresholds for their oscillation detectors. The resulting thresholds are based largely on engineering judgment and may vary significantly between organizations. In this paper, statistical distribution theory is used to derive a detection threshold for the widely deployed root-mean-square (RMS)-energy detector. This expression provides a theoretical basis for the detector's configuration, simplifies the process of selecting the threshold, and enables improved consistency among organizations that need to coordinate during system-wide events. Three methods for calculating the threshold using synchrophasor measurements are also proposed. These methods ensure that the threshold can be calculated reliably for various applications. Tests with simulated and field-measured data demonstrate that the statistics-based threshold provides consistent detection of grid disturbances while maintaining a low probability of false alarm.

Follum, James D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Observational Evaluation of RKW Theory over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

The theory of Rotunno et al. (“RKW” theory) addresses the behavior of squall-line cold pools in vertically sheared flows. It predicts that, within a given thermodynamic environment, a balance between baroclinic vorticity generation by the cold pool and low-level environmental vertical wind shear induces an upright updraft along the gust front that maximizes the initiation of new convective cells. Although this theory has been evaluated numerically, its applicability to observed systems remains unclear and is limited by a lack of critical measurements, including high-frequency thermodynamic and wind profiles across the gust front. Herein, observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM-SGP) observatory near Lamont, Oklahoma, are used to evaluate RKW theory for 10 well-observed squall lines over a 11-yr period. For this evaluation, RKW parameters including cold-pool intensity (c), low-level ambient, line-normal vertical shear (ΔV n ), subcloud and cloud-layer updraft tilts, and multiple measures of system intensity are estimated. Furthermore, the c estimates rely on thermodynamic retrievals from the Atmosphere Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), which are uncertain but verify reasonably well against independent observations. As predicted by the theory, for c/ΔV n ≥ 1, c/ΔV n correlates positively with updraft tilt and negatively with system intensity, but these results are not always statistically significant and are also sensitive to the method by which ΔV n is evaluated. Specifically, ΔV n evaluations that extend above the cold-pool top yield greater consistency with RKW predictions. Also, some measures of intensity correlate more strongly with standard moist instability metrics than with RKW parameters.

Cold pools↗

DOE OSTI2022

Establishing temperature from radiance of dynamically compressed metals

Precise temperature determination is a significant challenge in extreme environments of dynamic compression studies. How can radiance measurements taken in high-pressure shock experiments constrain temperature in a meaningful and physically consistent way? Experiments maintaining sample compression against a transparent window can be tailored to present a uniform measurement area with uncertain spectral emissivity. We compare several methods to analyze radiance collected at multiple wavelengths, applying statistical methods and physical principles to improve temperature inference. With proper radiance collection and analysis, dynamic temperature uncertainties become comparable to thermomechanical ambiguities of the emitting surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spectral characterization of flash and high flux x-ray radiographic sources with a magnetic Compton spectrometer

In this article, we present a new analysis method applied to revitalize permanent magnet Compton spectrometers used to measure photon energy spectra in the MeV range. The inversion of the measured electron distribution to determine the original photon distribution is achieved via a method of consistent coupled radiation transport and magnetic field mapping of the input photon spectra to the measured electron distribution. The method of linear least squares was used to perform the unfolding of the electron distribution to the initial photon spectra, without any assumptions made regarding the electron distribution. We present an application of this method to data from a nominal 19.4 MeV flash radiographic source (the first axis of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydro-Test Facility) capable of generating 500 R @ 1 m in ~60 ns and a medical therapy source (a Scanditronix M22, Microtron) capable of variable energies with nominal endpoints of 6, 10, 15, and 20 MeV and an output of ~1000–2000 R/min @ 1 m. The results provide agreement between the modeled and unfolded experimentally measured photon spectra as quantified by statistical tests, from 1.5 to 20 MeV. Experimental results are presented as well as a discussion of the novel MCNP6-based simulations and methods for reconstruction of the spectra.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of detection rate changes and correlations on random-coincidence background measurements

Coincidence detection of multiple particles emitted during an experiment can yield a new depth of understanding of the underlying process under study. However, the probability of detecting particles that are generated from the same physical event within a given coincidence time window is generally much lower than that of detecting particles that appear in the same coincidence time window, but were not created from the same physical event, and are therefore detected randomly in coincidence with each other. Thus, accurate and precise methods of measuring this random-coincidence background are essential for a wide variety of fields of science. A method to determine this background directly using the data themselves without any additional experimental run time or fake signals introduced in the data was recently established (O’Donnell, 2016). This method yields a statistical uncertainty on the random-coincidence background that is orders of magnitude smaller than that of the true coincidence data, though the potential for systematic errors of backgrounds from this method was never explored. In this work, we discuss common varieties of correlated and uncorrelated changes in the detection rates of each particle detected in an experiment. Here we demonstrate here that a correlation between particle detection rates from, for example, an incident particle beam that initiates a physical process of interest, creates systematic errors in the random-coincidence background measurement. We also discuss the impact of a variety of other realistic scenarios for rate changes in experiments. Lastly, a method is introduced to correct for errors in the random-coincidence background from any source, yielding an optimization between statistical precision and eliminating potential lingering systematic errors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measuring and Extracting Activity from Time Series Data

This report summarizes the results of an LDRD focused on developing and demonstrating statistically rigorous methods for analyzing and comparing complex activities from remote sensing data. Identifying activity from remote sensing data, particularly those that play out over time and span multiple locations, often requires extensive manual effort because of the variety of features that describe the activity and the required domain expertise. Our results suggest that there are some hidden challenges in extracting and representing activities in sensor data. In particular, we found that the variability in the underlying behaviors can be difficult to overcome statistically, and the report identifies several examples of the issue. We discuss key lessons learned in the context of the project, and finally conclude with recommendations on next steps and future work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Turbulent flow characteristics in an 84-pin rod bundle for typical and damaged spacer grids

Hexagonal rod bundles arranged in a tightly packed triangular lattice are extensively used for heat transfer and energy generation applications. Staggered spacer grids are used to maintain the structural integrity of gas-cooled fast reactor (GFR) fuel assemblies, while inducing localized turbulence in flow. Damage to these spacer grids results in a disruption of flow fields within these hexagonal fuel bundles. Experimental flow visualizations are critical to identify the differences in local flow properties that the structural damage may cause. This experimental research investigates the flow-field characteristics at a near-wall and center plane in a prototypical 84-pin GFR fuel assembly. Newly installed typical spacers and spacers subject to naturally occurring damage due to material degradation over prolonged experimentation were investigated. Velocity fields were acquired by utilizing the matched-index-of-refraction method to obtain time-resolved particle image velocimetry measurements for a Reynolds number of 12 000. Reynolds decomposition statistical results divulged differences in the time-averaged velocity, velocity fluctuations, flow anisotropy, and Reynolds stress distributions. Galilean decomposition demarcated the influence of spacer grid damage on the velocity fields. To extract turbulent structures and elucidate mechanisms of flow instabilities, proper orthogonal decomposition analysis was employed. Reduced order flow reconstructions enabled the application of vortex identification algorithms to determine the spatial and statistical characteristics of vortices generated. This research work provides unique experimental data on the spacer grid condition-dependent flow. The results offer a deeper understanding of fluid dynamics behavior to support GFR rod bundle design efforts and computational fluid dynamics model validation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

LBNL CRADA (FP00009949) with the American Public Power Association: Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (Final Technical Report)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (CRADA Final Report)

LBNL and APPA (the team) jointly examined the extent to which differences in distribution feeder characteristics are correlated with differences in their reliability performance when exposed to three different types of natural hazards (wildlife, weather, and vegetation). The team employed data-driven approaches to quantify the relationships between various measures of feeder reliability and a suite of feeder characteristics individually and jointly via a statistically-based clustering method. The team developed suggestions on how comparisons across groupings of feeders and review of the relative contributions of the constituents of SAIFI and SAIDI could be used to help prioritize utility actions to improve reliability. However, they also caution that their suggestions require further evaluation because they are based on only one year of information from a modest number of small utilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Subseasonal Forecasting of Extreme Polar Vortices Using Machine Learning

Our research was focused on forecasting the position and shape of the winter stratospheric polar vortex at a subseasonal timescale of 15 days in advance. To achieve this, we employed both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques. The analysis was performed on 42 winter seasons of reanalysis data provided by NASA giving us a total of 6,342 days of data. The state of the polar vortex for determined by using geometric moments to calculate the centroid latitude and the aspect ratio of an ellipse fit onto the vortex. Timeseries for thirty additional precursors were calculated to help improve the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Feature importance of these precursors was performed using random forest to measure the predictive importance and the ideal number of precursors. Then, using the precursors identified as important, various statistical methods were tested for predictive accuracy with random forest and nearest neighbor performing the best. An echo state network, a type of recurrent neural network that features sparsely connected hidden layer and a reduced number of trainable parameters that allows for rapid training and testing, was also implemented for the forecasting problem. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for each methods using a subset of the training data. The algorithms were trained and tuned on the first 41 years of data, then tested for accuracy on the final year. In general, the centroid latitude of the polar vortex proved easier to predict than the aspect ratio across all algorithms. Random forest outperformed other statistical forecasting algorithms overall but struggled to predict extreme values. Forecasting from echo state network suggested a strong predictive capability past 15 days, but further work is required to fully realize the potential of recurrent neural network approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development and implementation of high-throughput proteomic and metabolomics assays by using advanced chromatographic and mass spectrometric systems (CRADA Final Report)

The mission of this CRADA with Agilent was to couple powerful MS platforms (QQQ, IM-QTOFMS) with Agilent’s novel Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (UHPLC) fast metabolomic workflows and perform ABF Machine Learning (ML) to generated datasets. Agilent transferred UHPLC methods to PNNL and LBNL and methods were implemented and demonstrated in both labs, achieving total acquisition times of < 10 min. Metabolites analyzed using Agilent’s shared methods included metabolites from central carbon metabolism, common across hosts, and metabolites unique to engineered strains. Standards were acquired in an UHPLC-Drift Tube Ion Mobility Mass Spectrometer (DTIMS) system for the first time within the context of ABF and methods were optimized based on Agilent’s protocols. Samples from ABF hosts Pseudomonas putida, Aspergillus pseudoterreus, Aspergillus niger and Rhodosporidium toruloides were analyzed using the UHPLC-DTIMS platform for a total of 276 runs. A data analysis workflow compatible with the Experimental Data Depot (EDD) and completely shareable was developed for the acquired UHPLC-DTIMS data. Samples were analyzed using a Data Independent Acquisition Approach (DIA), which for most of the standards provided more transitions therefore increasing detection confidence. Using the data acquired by PNNL, LBNL, and Agilent’s specifications from previous ML projects, SNL applied an ensemble ML strategy to pick the best performing model for automated LC-method selection. Finally, with the contribution of the participant labs and Agilent, SNL developed an Automated Method Selection (AMS) software tool to predict the best liquid chromatography method for analysis of any new molecules of interest. Samples with novel pathways and new metabolite targets of interest are generated at a high pace in the ABF. Overall, the project advanced rapid metabolomics by combining liquid chromatography, ion mobility spectrometry, and data-independent mass spectrometry with machine learning. This multidimensional approach uses retention time, collision cross-section, precursor mass, and fragment-ion information to distinguish chemically similar metabolites that can be difficult to resolve using conventional liquid- or gas-chromatography methods. The resulting workflow also provided automated metabolite-identification error estimates, addressing a recognized need for statistical confidence measures in metabolomics.

Petzold, Christopher [Lawrence Berkeley National L↗

DOE OSTI2024

Real World Use Case Evaluation of Radar Retro-reflectors for Autonomous Vehicle Lane Detection Applications

Lane detection plays a critical role in autonomous vehicles for safe and reliable navigation. Lane detection is traditionally accomplished using a camera sensor and computer vision processing. The downside of this traditional technique is that it can be computationally intensive when high quality images at a fast frame rate are used and has reliability issues from occlusion such as, glare, shadows, active road construction, and more. This study addresses these issues by exploring alternative methods for lane detection in specific scenarios caused from road construction-induced lane shift and sun glare. Specifically, a U-Net, a convolutional network used for image segmentation, camera-based lane detection method is compared with a radar-based approach using a new type of sensor previously unused in the autonomous vehicle space: radar retro-reflectors. This evaluation is performed using ground truth data, obtained by measuring the lane positions and transforming them into pixel coordinates. The performance of each method is assessed using the statistical R2 score, indicating the correlation between the detected lane lines and the ground truth. The results show that the U-Net camera-based method exhibits limitations in accurately detecting and aligning the lane lines, particularly in challenging scenarios. However, the radar-based lane detection method demonstrates a strong correlation with the ground truth which implies that the use of this sensor may improve current reliability issues from conventional camera lane detection approach. Furthermore, the study highlights the limitations of the U-Net model for camera lane detection, especially in scenarios with sun glare. This study shows that infrastructure-based radar retro-reflectors can improve autonomous vehicle lane detection reliability. The integration of different sensor modalities and the development of advanced computer vision algorithms are crucial for improving the accuracy, reliability, and energy efficiency of lane detection systems. Addressing these challenges contributes to the advancement of autonomous vehicles and the realization of safer and more efficient transportation systems.

Brown, Nicolas E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

169 Tm ( n , γ ) cross section and statistical decay properties from measurements at the DANCE facility

Background: Radiative neutron capture on thulium, which is a monoisotopic element, plays a role in different applications such as nuclear astrophysics or nuclear burning environments. Considerable discrepancies—reaching 20%—exist between evaluations in the unresolved-resonance region. Furthermore, experimental data on statistical 𝛾 decay in odd-odd rare-earth nuclei is scarce. There are still open questions about the systematics of the so-called scissors mode in the 𝑀⁢1 photon strength function, especially in odd-odd nuclei. Purpose: This work is focused on two main topics—deriving experimental 169 Tm ⁢(𝑛,𝛾) cross section and studying statistical 𝛾 decay of 170 Tm, in particular properties of the scissors mode. Methods: The capture experiments to obtain experimental cross section were performed at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center using the time-of-flight technique and employing the Detector for Advanced Neutron Capture Experiments. Measured coincident 𝛾-ray spectra were also compared with statistical simulations using the dicebox code to test different models of level density and photon strength functions. Results: The capture cross section was determined from 1.8 eV to 0.97 MeV, the broadest neutron-energy range ever measured for this isotope. Several new resonances have been observed. The statistical 𝛾 decay of 170 Tm cannot be reproduced without a scissors mode resonance centered at ≈ 3.3MeV. Conclusions: The measured cross section in the unresolved-resonance region is generally lower than the latest evaluations. The derived 169 Tm 𝑠-process abundance is expected to increase by a factor of 1.26, while the changes of the abundances of elements heavier than 169 Tm are in the order of 0.2%. The scissors mode properties in 170 Tm are similar to those deduced in previous analyses of neighboring nuclei 168 Er and 166 Ho .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Probabilistic Model-Based Diagnostic Framework for Nuclear Engineering Systems

A fault diagnostic framework was investigated in this study for applications in thermal–hydraulic systems of nuclear power plants. The proposed framework consists of quantitative model-based diagnosis, statistical change detection and probabilistic reasoning. The use of physics-based diagnostic models provides high detection sensitivity and allows noise and measurement uncertainty to be incorporated robustly. Performance-related parametric models for each component are constructed based on first principles. Numerical model residuals are generated using the concept of analytical redundancy. Statistical change detection methods are employed to detect non-zero residuals in the presence of uncertainty. The diagnosis task is performed using Bayesian inference to detect and localize possible faults. Application to a single-phase heat exchanger for demonstration showed that the proposed probabilistic framework can provide improved results in comparison with traditional approaches while remaining less sensitive to false alarms in the presence of measurement and modeling uncertainty.

Bayesian network↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decomposition of multi-particle azimuthal correlations in Q-cumulant analysis*

Abstract The method of Q -cumulants is a powerful tool for studying the fine details of azimuthal anisotropies in high energy nuclear collisions. This paper presents a new method, based on mathematical induction, to evaluate the analytical form of high-order Q -cumulants. The capability of this method is demonstrated via a toy model that uses the elliptic power distribution to simulate the anisotropic emission of particles, quantified in terms of Fourier flow harmonics . The method can help in studying the large amount of event statistics that can be collected in the future and allow measurements of the very high central moments of the distribution. This can, in turn, facilitate progress in understanding the initial geometry, the input to the hydrodynamic calculations of medium expansion in high energy nuclear collisions, and the constraints on it.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic neural networks for improved analyses with phenomenological R -matrix

Here we present a method for measurement analyses based on probabilistic deep neural networks that provide several advantages over conventional analyses with phenomenological models. These include predicting physical quantities directly from data, the rapid generation of statistically robust uncertainties, and the ability to bypass some parameters that may induce ambiguities and complications in data analysis. As deep learning methods make predictions through “black boxes,” the uncertainty quantification is typically challenging. We use a probabilistic framework that provides thorough uncertainty quantification and is straightforward to follow in practice. With the network architecture based on the Transformer, we demonstrate the current method for predicting nuclear resonance parameters from scattering data using the phenomenological R-matrix model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗