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At least 127 records · Page 7

Observational Analysis of Cloud and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones: Northern Versus Southern Hemisphere Warm Fronts

Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.

Naud, Catherine M.↗

Large-scale Observations of a Subauroral Polarization Stream by Midlatitude SuperDARN Radars: Instantaneous Longitudinal Velocity Variations

We present simultaneous measurements of flow velocities inside a subauroral polarization stream (SAPS) made by six midlatitude high-frequency SuperDARN radars. The instantaneous observations cover three hours of universal time and six hours of magnetic local time (MLT). From velocity variations across the field-of-view of the radars we infer the local 2D flow direction at three different longitudes. We find that the local flow direction inside the SAPS channel is remarkably constant over the course of the event. The flow speed, however, shows significant temporal and spatial variations. After correcting for the radar look direction we are able to accurately determine the dependence of the SAPS velocity on magnetic local time. We find that the SAPS velocity variation with magnetic local time is best described by an exponential function. The average velocity at 00 MLT was 1.2 km/s and it decreased with a spatial e-folding scale of two hours of MLT toward the dawn sector. We speculate that the longitudinal distribution of pressure gradients in the ring current is responsible for this dependence and find these observations in good agreement with results from ring current models. Using TEC measurements we find that the high westward velocities of the SAPS are - as expected - located in a region of low TEC values, indicating low ionospheric conductivities.

Clausen, L. B. N.↗

Aerosol Midlatitude Cyclone Indirect Effects in Observations and High-Resolution Simulations

Aerosol-cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol-cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP). When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6-8.3 Wm(exp -2) in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60% of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

Mccoy, Daniel T.↗

Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Simulated and Observed Intense Convective Cores for a Midlatitude Continental and Tropical Maritime Environment

This study contrasts midlatitude continental and tropical maritime deep convective cores using polarimetric radar observables and retrievals from selected deep convection episodes during the MC3E and TWPICE field campaigns. The continental convective cores produce stronger radar reflectivities throughout the profiles, while maritime convective cores produce more positive differential reflectivity Z(dr) and larger specific differential phase K(dp) above the melting level. Hydrometeor identification retrievals revealed the presence of large fractions of rimed ice particles (snow aggregates) in the continental (maritime) convective cores, consistent with the Z(dr) and K(dp) observations. The regional cloud-resolving model simulations with bulk and size-resolved bin microphysics are conducted for the selected cases, and the simulation outputs are converted into polarimetric radar signals and retrievals identical to the observational composites. Both the bulk and the bin microphysics reproduce realistic land and ocean (L-O) contrasts in reflectivity, polarimetric variables of rain drops, and hydrometeor profiles, but there are still large uncertainties in describing Zdr and Kdp of ice crystals associated with the ice particle shapes/orientation assumptions. Sensitivity experiments are conducted by swapping background aerosols between the continental and maritime environments, revealing that background aerosols play a role in shaping the distinct L-O contrasts in radar reflectivity associated with raindrop sizes, in addition to the dominant role of background thermodynamics.

Toshihisa Matsui↗

2020 Innovation Fair Project: Is Midlatitude Ground Ice on Mars Habitable for Life?

The objective of this project was to perform a modeling study to evaluate whether midlatitude ground ice on Mars that could support life in geologically recent times. Recent studies from Mars orbital imaging, ground penetrating radar data, and infrared thermal data have revealed that large areas of Mars at latitudes higher than 40o N host near surface ground ice. Past climate cycles driven by orbital oscillations are expected to result in the distribution of ground ice changing over geologically recent history. The insolation at any location on Mars varies over time due to quasi-periodic changes in its orbital parameters (obliquity, eccentricity, perihelion longitude). The last 2 MY Mars obliquity varied between 15o and 35o but 5 MY ago varied between 24o and 48o with the average obliquity being 36o. The current low obliquity Mars atmosphere is dryer than average conditions. Recent work (Mellon and Sizemore Icarus (2022) 371;114667) has shown that repeatedly over the last 2 MY ground ice was present even at low Northern latitudes. The ice table depth is controlled by diffusive equilibrium with water vapor in the atmosphere, which also varies with orbital parameters. Determining the surface temperature and water vapor abundance requires a sophisticated climate model that was developed at NASA Ames, and results of high obliquity climate simulations will be used in the study. Work is underway to evaluate the subsurface thermal conditions in ice-rich areas of Mars during high obliquity periods to determine whether, where, and when the subsurface ice becomes warm enough to support metabolic processes or growth of terrestrial organisms.

Carol R Stoker↗

Meteorology Modulates the Impact of GCM Horizontal Resolution on Underestimation of Midlatitude Ocean Wind Speeds

We utilize ocean 10-m wind speed (U 10m ) from the microwave Multi-sensor Advanced Climatology data set to examine the coupling between convective cloud and precipitation processes, synoptic state, and U 10m and to evaluate the representation of U 10m in global climate models (GCMs). We find that midlatitude U 10m is underestimated by GCMs relative to observations. We examine two potential mechanisms to explain this model behavior: cold pool formation in cold air outbreaks (CAOs) associated with downdrafts that enhance U 10m and sea surface temperature (SST) gradients affecting U 10m through thermally forced surface winds at regional scales. When the effects of the CAO index (M) and SST gradients on U 10m are accounted for, a relationship between GCM horizontal resolution and U 10m appears. The strongest correlation between resolution and U 10m is over the western boundary currents characterized by frequent CAOs atop strong SST gradients which drives the strongest surface fluxes on Earth.

surface wind speed↗

Long-term single-column model intercomparison of diurnal cycle of precipitation over midlatitude and tropical land

General Circulation Models (GCMs) have for decades exhibited difficulties in modelling the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP). This issue can be related to inappropriate representation of the processes controlling sub-diurnal phenomena like convection. In this study, 11 single-column versions of GCMs are used to investigate the interactions between convection and environmental conditions, processes that control nocturnal convections, and the transition from shallow to deep convection on a diurnal time-scale. Long-term simulations are performed over two continental land sites: the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in the USA for 12 summer months from 2004 to 2015 and the Manacapuru site at the central Amazon (MAO) in Brazil for two full years from 2014 to 2015. The analysis is done on two regimes: afternoon convective regime and nocturnal precipitation regime. Most models produce afternoon precipitation too early, likely due to the missing transition of shallow-to-deep convection in these models. At SGP, the unified convection schemes better simulate the onset time of precipitation. At MAO, models produce the heating peak in a much lower level compared with observation, indicating too shallow convection in the models. For nocturnal precipitation, models that produce most of nocturnal precipitation all allow convection to be triggered above the boundary layer. This indicates the importance of model capability to detect elevated convection for simulating nocturnal precipitation. Sensitivity studies indicate that (a) nudging environmental variables towards observations has a minor impact on DCP, (b) unified treatment of shallow and deep convection and the capability to capture mid-level convection can help models better capture DCP, and (c) the interactions of the atmosphere with other components in the climate system (e.g. land) are also important for DCP simulations in coupled models. Finally, these results provide long-term statistical insights on which physical processes are essential in climate models to simulate DCP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Midlatitude Ozone Depletion and Air Quality Impacts from Industrial Halogen Emissions in the Great Salt Lake Basin

We report aircraft observations of extreme levels of HCl and the dihalogens Cl 2 , Br 2 , and BrCl in an industrial plume near the Great Salt Lake, Utah. Complete depletion of O 3 was observed concurrently with halogen enhancements as a direct result of photochemically produced halogen radicals. Observed fluxes for Cl 2 , HCl, and NO x agreed with facility-reported emissions inventories. Bromine emissions are not required to be reported in the inventory, but are estimated as 173 Mg year –1 Br 2 and 949 Mg year –1 BrCl, representing a major uncounted oxidant source. A zero-dimensional photochemical box model reproduced the observed O 3 depletions and demonstrated that bromine radical cycling was principally responsible for the rapid O 3 depletion. Inclusion of observed halogen emissions in both the box model and a 3D chemical model showed significant increases in oxidants and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in the populated regions of the Great Salt Lake Basin, where winter PM 2.5 is among the most severe air quality issues in the U.S. The model shows regional PM 2.5 increases of 10%–25% attributable to this single industrial halogen source, demonstrating the impact of underreported industrial bromine emissions on oxidation sources and air quality within a major urban area of the western U.S.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On the Relationship Between the Marine Cold Air Outbreak M Parameter and Low-Level Cloud Heights in the Midlatitudes

Focusing on conditions of subsidence when low clouds are present, ground-based observations in both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean reveal strong relationships between cloud boundary (base and top heights) and different measures of lower tropospheric instability. The difference in potential temperature between the surface and 800 hPa (a metric called M) provides a stronger relationship than measures of inversion strength such as the lower tropospheric stability and estimated inversion strength. This is because (1) inversion strength itself does not correlate well with cloud boundaries, and (2) M contains information that appears important for cloud boundaries. These include the surface forcing through the use of sea surface rather than near-surface air temperature and an upper level close to the real cloud top. These results expand upon previous work on the importance of M as a predictor of cloud morphology. However, important differences are found in low-cloud conditions for the North Atlantic as compared to the Southern Ocean (for a given value of M): stronger inversions, deeper boundary layers, and much larger sea level pressures. Therefore, the relationship between cloud boundaries and M differs between the two regions. A general circulation model provides similar relationships as observed between M and both cloud top height and temperature but tends to place clouds higher and at colder temperatures than observed for a given M. This might cause issues with the representation of precipitation, cloud cover and radiation in the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure of an Atmospheric River over Australia and the Southern Ocean. Part I: Tropical and Midlatitude Water Vapor Fluxes

An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Australia-Tasmania and the Southern Ocean during the Austral summer on 28-29 January 2018 during the SOCRATES campaign is analyzed using both a modeling and observational approach. Gulfstream-V dropsonde measurements and GPM radar analyses were used in conjunction with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with water vapor tracers to investigate the relative contributions of tropical and mid-latitude moisture sources to the AR. Moisture associated with a monsoonal tropical depression became entrained into a mid-latitude frontal system that extended to 60°S over the Southern Ocean reaching the associated low pressure system 850 km off the east coast of Antarctica – effectively connecting the tropics and the polar region. Tropical moisture contributed to about 50% of the precipitable water within the AR. The tropical contribution to precipitation decreased with latitude, from > 70% over the Australian continent, to ~50% off the Australian coast, to less than 10% poleward of 60°S. Precipitation in the AR conformed to a seeder-feeder model, the seeder precipitation forming primarily from tropical sourced moisture above the altitude of the 0°C isotherm, and the feeder precipitation sourced from mid-latitude sourced moisture below the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) through the core of the AR reached above 500 kg m-1s-1 during 1200 UTC 28 January to 0600 UTC 29 January 29, 1.29 times the average amount of water carried by the world’s largest river, the Amazon. The high IVT strength might be attributed to the higher water vapor content associated with the warmer temperatures in Austral summer.

Rauber, Robert M.↗

Wintertime synoptic patterns of midlatitude boundary layer clouds over the western North Atlantic: Climatology and insights from in-situ ACTIVATE observations

The winter synoptic evolution of the western North Atlantic and its influence on the atmospheric boundary layer is described by means of a regime classification based on Self Organizing Maps applied to 12 year of data (2009-2020). The regimes are classified into categories according to daily 600-hPa geopotential height: dominant ridge, trough to ridge eastward transition (trough-ridge), dominant trough, and ridge to trough eastward transition (ridge-trough). A fifth synoptic regime resembles the winter climatological mean. Coherent changes in sea-level pressure and large-scale winds are in concert with the synoptic regimes: 1) the ridge regime is associated with a well-developed anticyclone; 2) the trough-ridge gives rise to a low pressure center over the ocean, ascents, and northerly winds over the coastal zone; 3) trough is associated with the eastward displacement of a cyclone, coastal subsidence, and northerly winds, all representative characteristics of cold-air outbreaks; 4) the ridge-trough regime features the development of an anticyclone and weak coastal winds. Low clouds are characteristic of the trough regime, with both trough and trough-ridge featuring synoptic maxima in cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). The N d increase is primarily observed near the coast, concomitant with strong surface heat fluxes exceeding by more than 400 W m -2 compared to fluxes further east. Five consecutive days of aircraft observations collected during the ACTIVATE campaign corroborates the climatological characterization, confirming the occurrence of high N d for days identified as trough. This study emphasizes the role of boundary-layer dynamics and aerosol activation and their roles in modulating cloud microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational Constraints on the Spatial Effect of Greenness and Canopy Cover on Urban Heat in a Major Midlatitude City

Abstract Urban heat stress is a critical issue, particularly in cities where dense infrastructure and limited green space exacerbate temperature extremes. This study investigates the impact of greenery (EVI2), canopy cover (CC), impervious cover (IC), and water bodies on heat index in Chicago using high‐resolution data from the Heat Watch campaign. We find that EVI2, CC and proximity to water body significantly reduce heat while IC increases heat, particularly in the afternoon when solar radiation is intense. Additionally, the effective radius that land cover impacts heat is smaller in the afternoon. The combined effect analysis indicates that enhancing total greenness, not just canopy cover, is the most effective strategy to reduce heat. This study underscores the importance of strategic vegetation management, highlighting the critical role of integrated approaches in reducing urban heat.

Lee, Jangho↗

Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions

Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non-Gaussian. Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple kinematic model for atmospheric mid-latitude temperature variability based on symmetric advection from a non-symmetric background temperature profile. We then use this model to derive analytical expressions for the higher order moments of temperature distributions. Our results show that nonzero skewness and kurtosis arise due to the nonlinearity of the time-mean meridional temperature profile. The analytical model matches an idealized Held-Suarez atmospheric model, indicating nonlinearity of time-mean temperature in latitude is the dominant contribution to nonzero skewness and kurtosis in synoptic temperature variations. Model analysis further shows decrease in higher order moments due to climate change come roughly equally from changes in mixing length and changes in the background temperature profiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Previously unaccounted atmospheric mercury deposition in a midlatitude deciduous forest

Significance Direct measurements of atmospheric deposition of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) over a temperate forest showed a pronounced annual deposition of 25.1 µg ⋅ m −2 , which dominated as a source of mercury. GEM deposition was five times greater than wet deposition and three times greater than litterfall deposition, which has been used as a proxy for GEM deposition until now. Measured GEM deposition is driven by combined plant GEM uptake and underlying forest floor GEM uptake. Global forests may be a much larger global GEM sink than currently assumed, which may explain high mercury levels in soils across forests. Forest mercury mobilizes via watershed runoff and bioaccumulates in aquatic biota, ultimately leading to mercury exposures in wildlife and humans.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Analytic Formula for Entraining CAPE in Midlatitude Storm Environments

Abstract This article introduces an analytic formula for entraining convective available potential energy (ECAPE) with an entrainment rate that is determined directly from an environmental sounding, rather than prescribed by the formula user. Entrainment is connected to the background environment using an eddy diffusivity approximation for lateral mixing, updraft geometry assumptions, and mass continuity. These approximations result in a direct correspondence between the storm-relative flow and the updraft radius and an inverse scaling between the updraft radius squared and entrainment rate. The aforementioned concepts, combined with the assumption of adiabatic conservation of moist static energy, yield an explicit analytic equation for ECAPE that depends entirely on state variables in an atmospheric profile and a few constant parameters with values that are established in past literature. Using a simplified Bernoulli-like equation, the ECAPE formula is modified to account for updraft enhancement via kinetic energy extracted from the cloud’s background environment. CAPE and ECAPE can be viewed as predictors of the maximum vertical velocity w max in an updraft. Hence, these formulas are evaluated using w max from past numerical modeling studies. Both of the new formulas improve predictions of w max substantially over commonly used diagnostic parameters, including undiluted CAPE and ECAPE with a constant prescribed entrainment rate. The formula that incorporates environmental kinetic energy contribution to the updraft correctly predicts instances of exceedance of by w max , and provides a conceptual explanation for why such exceedance is rare among past simulations. These formulas are potentially useful in nowcasting and forecasting thunderstorms and as thunderstorm proxies in climate change studies. Significance Statement Substantial mixing occurs between the upward-moving air currents in thunderstorms (updrafts) and the surrounding comparatively dry environmental air, through a process called entrainment. Entrainment controls thunderstorm intensity via its diluting effect on the buoyancy of air within updrafts. A challenge to representing entrainment in forecasting and predictions of the intensity of updrafts in future climates is to determine how much entrainment will occur in a given thunderstorm environment without a computationally expensive high-resolution simulation. To address this gap, this article derives a new formula that computes entrainment from the properties of a single environmental profile. This formula is shown to predict updraft vertical velocity more accurately than past diagnostics, and can be used in forecasting and climate prediction to improve predictions of thunderstorm behavior and impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Role of Airborne Ice Nucleating Particles in Primary and Secondary Ice Formation Processes in Convective Midlatitude Clouds

Abstract Formation of ice in mixed-phase clouds may proceed via primary nucleation and secondary ice production (SIP). Primary nucleation involves the presence of ice nucleating particles (INPs), while SIP follows primary nucleation, resulting in ice crystal number concentrations N ice exceeding the number of INPs. The ice formation pathways in young congestus clouds are not well understood nor are the environmental conditions favorable for the onset of SIP. Coincident airborne measurements of INPs and N ice collected during the Secondary Production of Ice in Cumulus Experiment (SPICULE) campaign over the U.S. central Great Plains are reported for young congestus clouds. Number concentrations of INPs and N ice at temperatures between −10° and −20°C were used to categorize whether SIP was active in each analyzed cloud pass. Observational data suggested that fragmentation of freezing droplets (FFDs) was occurring and the most likely SIP mechanism for ice enhancement during the early stages of the sampled clouds, where higher cloud-base temperatures and stronger updrafts produced conditions favorable for the onset of FFD. Simple model simulations of a congestus cloud were used to compare predictions of N ice from newly implemented SIP mechanisms (including FFD) alongside those from the existing Hallett–Mossop (HM) mechanism. Although predicted N ice , when all SIP mechanisms were active, was in good agreement with observations, the dominant SIP mechanism in the model was predicted to be HM. The rate of heterogeneous freezing in raindrops was likely inhibiting realistic FFD rates in the simulated cloud. These discrepancies between the observations and simulations underscore the need for extended laboratory studies to formulate improved model representations of SIP in convective clouds.

Patnaude, Ryan J. [Department of Atmospheric Scien↗