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At least 127 records · Page 7

Space Radiation and the Challenges Towards Effective Shielding Solutions

The hazards of space radiation and their effective mitigation strategies continue to pose special science and technology challenges to NASA. It is widely accepted now that shielding space vehicles and structures will have to rely on new and innovative materials since aluminum, like all high Z materials, are poor shields against the particulate and highly ionizing nature of space radiation. Shielding solutions, motivated and constrained by power and mass limitations, couple this realization with "multifunctionality," both in design concept as well as in material function and composition. Materials endowed with effective shielding properties as well as with some degree of multi‐functionality may be the kernel of the so‐called "radiation‐smart" structures and designs. This talk will present some of the challenges and potential mitigation ideas towards the realization of such structures and designs.

Barghouty, Abdulnasser↗

Sensitivity of Riparian Buffer Designs to Climate Change—Nutrient and Sediment Loading to Streams: A Case Study in the Albemarle-Pamlico River Basins (USA) Using HAWQS

Riparian buffer zones (RBZs) provide multiple benefits to watershed ecosystems. We aimed to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of the RBZ designs to climate change nutrient and sediment loadings to streams. We designed 135 simulation scenarios starting with the six baselines RBZs (grass, urban, two-zone forest, three-zone forest, wildlife, and naturalized) in three 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds within the Albemarle-Pamlico river basin (USA). Using the hydrologic and water quality system (HAWQS), we assessed the sensitivity of the designs to five water quality indicator (WQI) parameters: dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorous (TP), total nitrogen (TN), sediment (SD), and biochemical oxygen demand (BD). To understand the climate mitigation potential of RBZs, we identified a subset of future climate change projection models of air temperature and precipitation using EPA’s Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online tool. Analyses revealed optimal RBZ designs for the three watersheds. In terms of watershed ecosystem services sustainability, the optimal Urban RBZ in contemporary climate (1983–2018) reduced SD from 61–96%, TN from 34–55%, TP from 9–48%, and BD from 53–99%, and raised DO from 4–10% with respect to No-RBZ in the three watersheds. The late century’s (2070–2099) extreme mean annual climate changes significantly increased the projected SD and BD; however, the addition of urban RBZs was projected to offset the climate change reducing SD from 28–94% and BD from 69–93% in the watersheds. All other types of RBZs are also projected to fully mitigate the climate change impacts on WQI parameters except three-zone RBZ.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WIse-2005: Combined Aerobic and Resistive Exercise May Help Mitigate Bone Loss During 60-D Simulated Microgravity in Women

Exercise can attenuate bone loss associated with disuse during bed rest (BR), an analog of space flight. Previous studies have examined the efficacy of aerobic or resistive exercise countermeasures, but not in combination. We sought to determine the effect of a combined resistive and aerobic exercise regimen on bone metabolism during BR. After a 20-d ambulatory adaptation to confinement and diet, 16 women participated in a 60-d head-down-tilt BR. Control subjects (CN, n=8) performed no countermeasures. Exercise subjects, (EX, n=8) participated in exercise alternating daily between supine treadmill exercise within lower body negative pressure and resistive fly-wheel exercise (6-d wk(sup -1)). In the last week of BR, bone resorption was greater (p less than 79 plus or minus 44%, mean plus or minus SD) and EX groups (64 50%). N-telopeptide also increased (CN: 51 plus or minus 34%; EX: 43 plus or minus 56%). However, bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, a bone formation marker, tended to be higher in EX (26 plus or minus 18%) than in CN (8 plus or minus 33%) groups. The combination of resistive and aerobic exercise does not prevent bone resorption, but may promote formation, potentially mitigating the net bone loss associated with simulated microgravity. This study was supported by CNES, CSA, ESA, NASA, and NASA grant NNJ04HF71G to ARH. MEDES (French Institute for Space Medicine and Physiology) organized the study.

Smith, Scott M.↗

A regional comparison of sub-daily flow variability in regulated and unregulated rivers in the United States

Regulating rivers for hydropower or other purposes can dramatically alter river flow patterns, including creating substantial changes in flow over short, minutes-to-hours-long timespans known as sub-daily flow variability (SDFV). The impacts of flexible hydropower production on flow and aquatic organisms are increasingly documented in research. However, the degree to which flow alteration relates to different hydropower operational modes in distinct geographical regions and seasons is not well understood. This study offers a methodology for regional- and species-appropriate evaluations of potential impacts of flow on fish based on sub-daily flow characteristics of hydropower operational modes. We analyzed 15-min discharge data between 2018 and 2021 from 69 USGS stream gages to compare SDFV in hydropeaking, run-of-river, and unregulated systems in the US Southeast and Pacific Northwest. Regulated systems exhibited significant SDFV downstream from hydropower facilities relative to unregulated systems, but specific impacts differed between regions. Regulated systems in the Southeast were characterized by high flow coefficients of variation and ratios (hydropeaking only) and extended durations of daily upramping flow phases. Regulated systems in the Pacific Northwest were characterized by many short flow phases per day and large portions of the day spent upramping. Pacific Northwest unregulated systems displayed the strongest seasonal flow patterns while Southeastern hydropeaking systems displayed the greatest SDFV. Given that SDFV impacts multiple dimensions of fish ecology, region-specific sub-daily flow signatures have important implications for understanding and mitigating potential community-, species-, and age-specific effects on fish in different parts of the country.

Fish↗

A deep decarbonization framework for the United States economy – a sector, sub-sector, and end-use based approach

Achieving the United States' target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require technological transformations and energy sector mitigation. To understand the role of dynamically evolving technologies, identify synergies and dissonance and the effect of allocating limited low-carbon biomass resources in decarbonizing the U.S. economy, we developed the Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model. A Life Cycle Assessment based approach is implemented considering the U.S. economy as the functional unit, to estimate greenhouse gas mitigation potential for projected energy demand based on several sector-level and cross-sectoral decarbonization pathways. Direct and supply-chain emissions are accounted, resulting from changes in patterns of energy generation and consumption, technology breakthroughs, and reductions in fugitive emissions over time at the granularity of economic sectors, sub-sectors, and end-use. Decarbonization strategies are implemented over a reference case developed using Energy Information Administration (EIA AEO) projection of economic activities for 2020–2050. Based on the considered scenarios, 80–90% economy-wide decarbonization relative to the 2020 reference case is projected. Electrification, low-carbon fuels, and reduction of fugitive emissions play the most significant role to decarbonization. The majority of the remaining emissions are accounted to the supply-chain and end-use emissions from natural gas and diesel fossil-based fuels in heavy duty transportation and heavy industries, highlighting the need for developing low-carbon and carbon-negative alternatives to mitigate those fossil-based carbon emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The overlooked interaction of emerging contaminants and microbial communities: a threat to ecosystems and public health

Abstract Context and aims Emerging contaminants (ECs) and microbial communities should not be viewed in isolation, but through the One Health perspective. Both ECs and microorganisms lie at the core of this interconnected framework, as they directly influence the health of humans, animals, and the environment. The interactions between ECs and microbial communities can have profound implications for public health, affecting all three domains. However, these ECs-microorganism interactions remain underexplored, potentially leaving significant public health and ecological risks unrecognized. Therefore, this article seeks to alert the scientific community to the overlooked interactions between ECs and microbial communities, emphasizing the pivotal role these interactions may play in the management of ‘One Health.’ Results The most extensively studied interaction between ECs and microbial communities is biodegradation. However, other more complex and concerning interactions demand attention, such as the impact of ECs on microbial ecology (disruptions in ecosystem balance affecting nutrient and energy cycles) and the rise and spread of antimicrobial resistance (a growing global health crisis). Although these ECs-microbial interactions had not been extensively studied, there are scientific evidence that ECs impact on microbial communities may be concerning for public health and ecosystem balance. Conclusions So, this perspective summarizes the impact of ECs through a One Health lens and underscores the urgent need to understand their influence on microbial communities, while highlighting the key challenges researchers must overcome. Tackling these challenges is vital to mitigate potential long-term consequences for both ecosystems and public health.

Gomes, Inês B. (ORCID:0000000207313662)↗

NASA's Newest Orbital Debris Ground-based Telescope Assets: MCAT and UKIRT

NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) will break ground on Ascension Island in 2014 to build the newest optical (0.30 - 1.06 micrometers) ground-based telescope asset dedicated to the study of orbital debris. The Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) is a 1.3m optical telescope designed to track objects in orbits ranging from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). Ascension Island is located in the South Atlantic Ocean, offering longitudinal sky coverage not afforded by the Ground-based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance (GEODSS) network. With a fast-tracking dome, a suite of visible wide-band filters, and a time-delay integration (TDI) capable camera, MCAT is capable of multiple observing modes ranging from tracking cataloged debris targets to surveying the overall debris environment. Access to the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) will extend our spectral coverage into the near- (0.8-5 micrometers) and mid- to far-infrared (8-25 micrometers) regime. UKIRT is a 3.8m telescope located on Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. At nearly 14,000-feet and above the atmospheric inversion layer, this is one of the premier astronomical sites in the world and is an ideal setting for an infrared telescope. An unprecedented one-third of this telescope's time has been allocated to collect orbital debris data for NASA's ODPO over a 2-year period. UKIRT has several instruments available to obtain low-resolution spectroscopy in both the near-IR and the mid/far-IR. Infrared spectroscopy is ideal for constraining the material types, albedos and sizes of debris targets, and potentially gaining insight into reddening effects caused by space weathering. In addition, UKIRT will be used to acquire broadband photometric imaging at GEO with the Wide Field Camera (WFCAM) for studying known objects of interest as well as collecting data in survey-mode to discover new targets. Results from the first stage of the debris campaign will be presented. The combination of these ground-based telescope assets will yield spectral coverage ranging from 0.3 - 25 micrmeters, allowing orbital debris to be studied in depth across a wider wavelength range in the visible and IR than ever previously studied by ODPO. Located on opposite sides of the world and in opposite hemispheres, they offer access to nearly the entire GEO belt on any given night, allowing immediate coverage of nearly any time-critical break-up event. By expanding the methods for surveying, detecting, and characterizing orbital debris, we can better model the debris environment and ultimately gain insight into how to mitigate potential collisions for future missions.

Lederer, S. M.↗

A Cryogenic Muon Tagging System Integrated with a Superconducting Qubit Device for Radiation-Induced Error Mitigation

Superconducting qubits are highly sensitive to ionizing radiation, which can induce correlated errors and limit scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing. In particular, cosmic-ray muons can deposit energy in the substrate, generating phonon bursts that break Cooper pairs and produce quasiparticles, leading to correlated decoherence events across multiple qubits. We present the development of a cryogenic muon tagging system based on Kinetic Inductance Detectors (KIDs) and its integration with superconducting quantum hardware. Originally developed within the ACE-SuperQ project and validated as a standalone detector, the system demonstrated a muon tagging efficiency of approximately 90% and excellent agreement with Monte Carlo simulations. Building on this validation, the tagging system has been integrated with a multi-qubit superconducting chip operated in a dilution refrigerator. The detector configuration consists of a multi-layer KID stack arranged above and below the quantum device, enabling time-coincident identification of muon-induced events within the same cryogenic environment. The integrated setup has been successfully commissioned, enabling simultaneous operation of the qubit chip and the muon tagging system. A first measurement campaign has been carried out, and preliminary data show time-correlated events between the muon tagging detectors and the qubit readout. A quantitative analysis of radiation-induced effects on qubit performance is currently ongoing. This work represents a step toward the implementation of event-level radiation tagging as a tool for characterizing and potentially mitigating correlated errors in superconducting quantum processors, while establishing a modular platform for future studies at the interface between particle physics and quantum information science.

Roy, Tanay [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000019442862X)↗

J-2X Turbopump Cavitation Diagnostics

The J-2X is the upper stage engine currently being designed by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) for the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Propellant supply requirements for the J-2X are defined by the Ares Upper Stage to J-2X Interface Control Document (ICD). Supply conditions outside ICD defined start or run boxes can induce turbopump cavitation leading to interruption of J-2X propellant flow during hot fire operation. In severe cases, cavitation can lead to uncontained engine failure with the potential to cause a vehicle catastrophic event. Turbopump and engine system performance models supported by system design information and test data are required to predict existence, severity, and consequences of a cavitation event. A cavitation model for each of the J-2X fuel and oxidizer turbopumps was developed using data from pump water flow test facilities at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) together with data from Powerpack 1A testing at Stennis Space Center (SSC) and from heritage systems. These component models were implemented within the PWR J-2X Real Time Model (RTM) to provide a foundation for predicting system level effects following turbopump cavitation. The RTM serves as a general failure simulation platform supporting estimation of J-2X redline system effectiveness. A study to compare cavitation induced conditions with component level structural limit thresholds throughout the engine was performed using the RTM. Results provided insight into system level turbopump cavitation effects and redline system effectiveness in preventing structural limit violations. A need to better understand structural limits and redline system failure mitigation potential in the event of fuel side cavitation was indicated. This paper examines study results, efforts to mature J-2X turbopump cavitation models and structural limits, and issues with engine redline detection of cavitation and the use of vehicle-side abort triggers to augment the engine redline system.

Santi, I. Michael↗

Clean Air Policies Are Key for Successfully Mitigating Arctic Warming

A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

Evaluating the Impact of Off-Design CHP Performance on the Optimal Sizing and Dispatch on Hybrid Renewable-CHP Distributed Energy Resources

The maturation of distributed energy resources (DER) has prompted the exploration of their deployment in commercial building applications due to their potential to supply energy at lower costs and emissions rates compared to centralized generation. While several software tools exist for evaluating the techno-economic potential of integrated renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP) systems for distributed generation applications, many suffer from poor accuracy in capturing off-design (part load and changes in ambient air temperature and pressure) performance characteristics of microturbines, combustion turbines, or internal combustion engines. Thus, this paper presents a methodology for integrating these off-design characteristics in the mixed-integer linear program within REopt, a hybrid DER screening tool. The economic impact of the CHP off-design performance is observed through several application studies of various hybrid system configurations in different climates. Each study indicates how CHP off-design performance influences optimal sizing and dispatch decisions and therefore overall system economic value. We observe through case studies that modeling without the off-design effects, depending on the CHP prime mover and site, can result in Net Present Value predictions of hybrid systems that can be overoptimistic in frequently hot climates (up to 52%), too conservative in frequently cold climates (up to 11%), or unaffected (+/-1%) in temperate climates. Cases also highlight several advantages of hybrid systems relative to non-hybrid systems such as total economic value and the systems' ability to mitigate potentially negative consequences attributed to off-design performance.

ambient de-rate↗

SAXS studies of X-ray induced disulfide bond damage: Engineering high-resolution insight from a low-resolution technique

A significant problem in biological X-ray crystallography is the radiation chemistry caused by the incident X-ray beam. This produces both global and site-specific damage. Site specific damage can misdirect the biological interpretation of the structural models produced. Cryo-cooling crystals has been successful in mitigating damage but not eliminating it altogether; however, cryo-cooling can be difficult in some cases and has also been shown to limit functionally relevant protein conformations. The doses used for X-ray crystallography are typically in the kilo-gray to mega-gray range. While disulfide bonds are among the most significantly affected species in proteins in the crystalline state at both cryogenic and higher temperatures, there is limited information on their response to low X-ray doses in solution, the details of which might inform biomedical applications of X-rays. In this work we engineered a protein that dimerizes through a susceptible disulfide bond to relate the radiation damage processes seen in cryo-cooled crystals to those closer to physiologic conditions. This approach enables a low-resolution technique, small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), to detect and monitor a residue specific process. A dose dependent fragmentation of the engineered protein was seen that can be explained by a dimer to monomer transition through disulfide bond cleavage. This supports the crystallographically derived mechanism and demonstrates that results obtained crystallographically can be usefully extrapolated to physiologic conditions. Fragmentation was influenced by pH and the conformation of the dimer, providing information on mechanism and pointing to future routes for investigation and potential mitigation. The novel engineered protein approach to generate a large-scale change through a site-specific interaction represents a promising tool for advancing radiation damage studies under solution conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The power reliability event simulator tool (PRESTO): A novel approach to distribution system reliability analysis and applications

The growing interest in onsite solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems is partially motivated by customer concerns regarding grid reliability. However, accurately assessing the effectiveness of PVESS in mitigating these interruptions requires a comprehensive understanding of location-specific outage patterns and the ability to simulate realistic scenarios. To address the gap, we introduce the Power Reliability Event Simulation TOol (PRESTO), the first publicly available tool that simulates location-specific power interruptions at the county level. PRESTO allows for a more realistic assessment of system reliability by considering the unpredictability and location-specific patterns of power interruptions. We applied PRESTO in a case study of a single-family home across three U.S. counties, examining the performance of a solar photovoltaic system with 10kWh of battery storage during short-duration power interruptions. Our findings show that this system reliably met 93% of energy demand for essential non-heating and cooling loads, fully serving these loads in 84% of events, despite the constraints of daily time-of-use bill management which limits the battery's state-of-charge reserve. However, when heating and cooling loads were included, system performance decreased significantly, with only 70% of demand met and full service in 43% of events. These results highlight the challenges of using solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems for short-duration outages, emphasizing the need to consider factors like battery size and grid charging strategies to improve reliability. Our study demonstrates the practical applications of PRESTO, providing valuable insights into potential mitigation strategies including grid charging and optimizing battery size.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Low-carbon fuels for spark-ignited engines: A comparative study of compressed natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas on a CFR engine with exhaust gas recirculation

Decades of work on low-carbon fuels have established their potential for substantial emissions reductions; however, their adoption is still limited by infrastructure concerns and engine efficiency deficits. As infrastructures have begun to evolve, research on strategies that maximize engine efficiency through interactions with fuel properties must also now take center place. This paper compares the performance, emissions, and combustion characteristics of two forefront low-carbon fuels: compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in a cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine over a range of compression ratios and engine loads. The effects of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), end-gas auto-ignition, and a novel combustion control tool, the combustion intensity metric (CIM), were also evaluated at different stoichiometric engine operating conditions. In comparison to LPG, CNG operation demonstrated an extended knock-free regime, allowing engine operation at higher engine loads and compression ratios, but LPG operation exhibited enhanced combustion characteristics with higher peak pressures and faster apparent heat release rates (AHRR). LPG operation achieved higher brake thermal efficiencies and lower equivalent CO 2 emissions compared to CNG operation at the tested engine loads and compression ratios. LPG demonstrated significantly higher EGR tolerance limits compared to CNG, with a maximum of 28% EGR rate, compared to 23% for CNG. This improved EGR dilution tolerance was responsible for a 90% reduction in NOx emissions for LPG compared to a maximum of 70% with CNG. EGR dilution also exhibited more effective knock mitigation potential with LPG, suppressing knock intensity values by up to 98% and transitioning the engine operation towards normal combustion from heavy knocking conditions. As a result, the CIM was found to decrease burn durations and improve the quality of combustion by controlling the desired fraction of end-gas auto-ignition.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

In silico assessment of the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N 2 O emissions from bioenergy crops

Abstract The potential of large‐scale deployment of basalt to reduce N 2 O emissions from cultivated soils may contribute to climate stabilization beyond the CO 2 ‐removal effect from enhanced weathering. We used 3 years of field observations from maize ( Zea mays ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) to improve the nitrogen (N) module of the DayCent model and evaluate the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N losses and increase yields from two bioenergy crops. We found 20%–60% improvement in our N 2 O flux estimates over previous model descriptions. Model results predict that the application of basalt would reduce N 2 O emissions by 16% in maize and 9% in miscanthus. Lower N 2 O emissions responded to increases in the N 2 :N 2 O ratio of denitrification with basalt‐induced increases in soil pH, with minor contributions from the impact of P additions (a minor component of some basalts) on N immobilization. The larger reduction of N 2 O emissions in maize than in miscanthus was likely explained by a synergistic effect between soil pH and N content, leading to a higher sensitivity of the N 2 :N 2 O ratio to changes in pH in heavily fertilized maize. Basalt amendments led to modest increases in modeled yields and the nitrogen use efficiency (i.e., fertilizer‐N recover in crop production) of maize but did not affect the productivity of miscanthus. However, enhanced soil P availability maintained the long‐term productivity of crops with high nutrient requirements. The alleviation of plant P limitation led to enhanced plant N uptake, thereby contributing to lower microbial N availability and N 2 O emissions from crops with high nutrient requirements. Our results from the improved model suggest that the large‐scale deployment of basalt, by reducing N 2 O fluxes of cropping systems, could contribute to the sustainable intensification of agriculture and enhance the climate mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bioenergy sorghum’s deep roots: A key to sustainable biomass production on annual cropland

Abstract Bioenergy sorghum has high biomass yield potential, drought resilience, good nitrogen use efficiency, and a root system that contributes to the accumulation of soil organic carbon. In this study, field grown bioenergy sorghum root systems were analyzed during the growing season to characterize their depth, biomass, morphology, anatomy, and gene expression profiles. Bioenergy sorghum roots grew continuously during a 155‐day growing season producing ~175 nodal roots, accumulating ~7 Mg of dry biomass per hectare, and reaching >2 m deep in the soil profile. Nodal roots within 20 cm of the stem were 1–5 mm in diameter, whereas roots deeper in soil profiles were enriched in lateral roots with small diameters (~30–500 µm) enabling growth through soil macropores. In older field‐grown plants, roots with intact endodermal, vascular and inner root tissues were surrounded by degraded or aerenchyma‐filled epidermal and cortical cell layers. Transcriptome analysis of nodal, surface, and deep roots identified >2,500 differentially expressed genes involved in root growth, transport, adaptation, defense, and AMF–root interaction. Deep roots (180–240 cm) differentially expressed genes that regulate lateral root growth. Surface roots (0–20 cm) located mid‐row differentially expressed genes involved in nitrate transport, whereas ammonium transport genes were expressed in surface and deep roots and genes involved in phosphate transport were expressed in nodal, surface, and deep roots. Overall, bioenergy sorghum's long growing season enables root systems to grow deeper and accumulate more biomass than annual grain crops such as maize, attributes that could help restore annual cropland soil organic carbon levels and improve soil productivity. Deep roots active in nutrient transport are positioned to take‐up fertilizer leached deep into soil profiles mitigating potential nutrient run‐off. Bioenergy sorghum's large and deep root system is a key to sustainable production of biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts on annual cropland.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind: Project Synthesis

The population of North Atlantic right whales is critically endangered and their habitat overlaps with offshore windfarm leases. It is therefore imperative that effective mitigation strategies be used to avoid impacts on right whales during the construction of offshore windfarms. The Department of Energy issued FOA Number DE-FOA-0001924 to encourage the development of technology that could monitor large exclusion zones for right whales in order to mitigate potential impact of construction noise on right whales. This report summarizes the past two years of the development and evaluation of the Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind (CABOW) project which aimed to develop technology to monitor large exclusion zones for North Atlantic right whales. Over the course of the project SMRU Consulting have implemented a rigorous design process including comparison of different approaches (e.g., single sensor vs multiple sensors), as well as consideration of placement and timing of acoustic monitoring. We have evaluated critical components of the CABOW system including, reliability, detection range, and bearing accuracy in areas adjacent to offshore windfarm leases in Maryland by conducting 3,536 playbacks of simulated right whale upcalls. The maximum call detection range was 7.5 km when noise was 99 dB re 1µPa rms (50-225 Hz), but this reduced to < 1 km when ambient noise levels were high. Our detection probability in the field was measured as a function of range as well as the source-to-noise level ratio allowing us to build a model to predict the probability of detection under various scenarios (sample size: 3,536 calls x 5 buoys = 17,680). The median bearing error was -0.25° but this is likely an underestimate of error due to experimental design. Using the published recall and precision of the two detectors we implemented in the CABOW system, we estimate that at a recall of 80%, our precision was > 80%, within the range of what we were aiming for in this project. To estimate our exclusion zone false negative and false positive rates, we built a simulation model using the empirical data from our field trial. We modelled three to nine CABOW units placed on the 10 km exclusion zone and estimated our false negative rate to be 1% or less (which was our project goal) and our false positive rate to be between seven and nine percent, slightly above our goal of 5%. However, we also modelled an equivalent PAM system that does not have bearing capabilities and found the false positive rates for that system to be six to eight times higher than the CABOW rate. This higher false positive rate of PAM systems with low spatial information could have significant cost repercussions for offshore wind developers by adding work shutdowns or delays without providing additional protection for right whales. The model we built allows us to explore the placement of PAM systems under various scenarios and will thus help facilitate planning of PAM mitigation systems to meet NOAA Incidental Harassment Authorizations for specific windfarms. We achieved an average system uptime of 98.3%, just below our goal of 99%. The issues that caused these short losses of data have been identified and fixed. Right whale detections and audio clips were typically transferred via radio from the buoys to the base station in two to four seconds. We therefore believe we have developed a highly robust real-time PAM system. Based on the above, we feel we have achieved the stated funding goal of developing a cost-effective and robust real-time PAM system that enables the monitoring of large exclusion zones for right whales during the constructions of offshore windfarms. This should lead to decreased costs and risks for the offshore wind sector while providing robust mitigation for right whales. It is important to state that PAM mitigation will need to be implemented with other mitigation strategies (e.g., visual observers) to provide a complete mitigation strategy to ensure that any effects on right whales from offshore windfarm construction is minimized.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Supply chain system for a centralized biorefinery system based on switchgrass grown on marginal land in Michigan

The feedstock supply chain of a biorefinery is critical in determining the economic and environmental performance of biofuels. This study investigated various feedstock supply chains for a centralized biorefinery based on different objective functions and how the biorefinery responds to supply chain volatility. For the analysis, a hypothetical centralized biorefinery was supplied by switchgrass grown on marginal lands in Michigan. From an economic standpoint, the minimum biofuel selling price is an important metric of the objective function, and the greenhouse gas mitigation potential is a similarly important metric for global warming impact. A trade-off therefore exists between the economic and environmental performance of biofuels under this system configuration. However, when a carbon tax credit is applied to soil organic carbon sequestration in switchgrass production, the metric of the objective function may not be the key factor in establishing a supply chain as long as it is associated with biorefinery capacity as well as economic or environmental values. Year-to-year fluctuations in cellulosic biomass yield (supply chain volatility) might also prevent the biorefinery from operating at full capacity. Cellulosic biomass pellets can serve as an auxiliary feedstock for the centralized cellulosic biorefinery system to minimize the impacts of supply chain volatility.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗