A Multiplex Complex Systems Model for Engineering Security Systems-Slides.
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Williams, Adam David↗
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USE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS TO ABSTRACT A COMPLEX PERCOLATION MODEL INTO A SIMPLIFIED SITE-SPECIFIC EMPIRICAL FORMULA – 22126
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HOMMEL, STEVEN↗
Vadose Zone Model for B Complex for Composite Analysis
The objectives of the vadose modeling for the updated Hanford Site composite analysis (CA) are to simulate the flow and transport of water and radionuclide releases from the surface to the water table and to provide radionuclide transfer rates for the plateau to river (P2R) model, version 8.3. Water additions include natural recharge and water discharged to the ground as a result of industrial processes associated with Hanford Site operations. Contaminant sources include radionuclides in water discharged to the ground during operations and radionuclides disposed “dry” in solid waste burial grounds or other means. The simulation time starts in 1943 and ends at 12070, which is 10,000 years after assumed Hanford Site closure in 2070. The scope of this ECF is to document the development and results of the B Complex vadose zone model. The B Complex model encompasses the region around single-shell tank farms 241-B, 241-BX, and 241-BY, and adjacent cribs, trenches, and burial grounds in the northwestern part of the 200 East Area. Sources of waste to this area were primarily from B Plant (221-B) and U Plant (221-U).
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Improving Schrödinger Equation Implementations with Gray Code for Adiabatic Quantum Computers
We reformulate the continuous-space Schrödinger equation in terms of spin Hamiltonians. For the kinetic energy operator, the critical concept facilitating the reduction in model complexity is the idea of position encoding. A binary encoding of position produces a spin-1/2 Heisenberg-like model and yields exponential improvement in space complexity when compared to classical computing. Encoding with a binary reflected Gray code (BRGC), and a Hamming-distance-2 Gray code (H2GC) reduces the model complexity down to the 𝑋𝑍 and transverse Ising model, respectively. For 𝐴 qubits BRGC yields 2 𝐴 positions and is reduced to its 2-local form with O(𝐴) ancillary qubits. H2GC yields 2 𝐴/2+1 positions with O(𝐴 2 ) three-local penalty terms. We also identify the bijective mapping between diagonal unitaries and the Walsh series, producing the mapping of any real potential to a series of 𝑘 -local Ising models through the fast Walsh transform. Finally, in a finite volume, we provide some numerical evidence to support the claim that the total time needed for adiabatic evolution is protected by the infrared cutoff of the system. As a result, initial state preparation from a free-field wave function to an interacting system is expected to exhibit polynomial time complexity with volume and constant scaling with respect to lattice discretization for all encodings. For H2GC, if the evolution starts with the transverse Hamiltonian due to hardware restrictions, then penalties are dynamically introduced such that the low-lying spectrum reproduces the energy levels of the Laplacian. The adiabatic evolution of the penalty Hamiltonian is therefore sensitive to the ultraviolet scale. It is expected to exhibit polynomial time complexity with lattice discretization, or exponential time complexity with respect to the number of qubits given a fixed volume.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
What Questions Would a Systems Engineer Ask to Assess Systems Engineering Models as Credible
Digital Systems Engineering strategies typically call for digital Systems Engineering models to be retained in repositories and certified as an authoritative source of truth (enabling model reuse, qualification, and collaboration). In order for digital Systems Engineering models to be certified as authoritative (credible), they need to be assessed - verified and validated - and with the amount of uncertainty in the model quantified (consider reusing someone else's model without knowing the author). Due to this increasing model complexity, the authors assert that traditional human-based methods for validating, verifying, and uncertainty quantification - such as human-based peer-review sessions - cannot sufficiently establish that a digital Systems Engineering model of a complex system is credible. Digital Systems Engineering models of complex systems can contain millions of nodes and edges. The authors assert that this level of detail is beyond the ability of any group of humans - even working for weeks at a time - to discern and catch every minor model infraction. In contrast, computers are highly effective at discerning infractions with massive amounts of information. The authors suggest that a better approach might be to focus the humans at what model patterns should be assessed and enable the computer to assess the massive details in accordance with those patterns - by running through perhaps 100,000 test loops. In anticipation of future projects to implement and automate the assessment of models at Sandia National Laboratories, a study was initiated to elicit input from a group of 25 Systems Engineering experts. The authors positioning query began with - 'What questions would a Systems Engineer ask to assess Systems Engineering models for credibility?" This report documents the results of that survey.
42 ENGINEERING↗
The interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling for enhancing the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands
There is a lack of an urban building energy modeling framework that considers the influence of surrounding buildings and local urban climate on building thermal performance. This can lead to inaccurate results since the thermal performance of individual buildings is heavily influenced by their surrounding built and climatic environment. This study establishes an interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling method to enhance the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands by coupling an urban physics model with a physics-based building energy model. Validation of the interactive coupling scheme uses field measurement datasets. Parametric simulation and analysis are conducted to understand the influence of the roof-to-canyon width ratio, canyon orientation, and ground vegetation fraction on canyon temperature, building energy consumption, and energy demand. Furthermore, the impacts of building energy model complexity (e.g., detailed vs. simplified building models) and coupling approaches on canyon temperature and building energy profiles are demonstrated using two case study buildings. In comparison with the one-way coupling approach, cooling energy consumption predicted with the dynamic two-way coupling approach varies by 3.5% and 0.5% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively, and peak cooling demand varies by 8.4% and 7.0% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively. Here this study also suggests that adopting a complex two-way coupling approach with environmental data exchange at various elevations is necessary for modeling tall buildings at the urban scale.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Software Quality Assurance Plan ANSYS LSDYNA Version 2023R1
ANSYS Inc. develops and markets engineering simulation software and services used in the aerospace, automotive, manufacturing, electronics, biomedical, energy, defense, and many other industries. ANSYS is dedicated to engineering simulation and is the world’s leading software provider. ANSYS was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. ANSYS provides an engineering analysis tool combining structural, thermal, computational fluid dynamics, acoustic and electromagnetic simulation capabilities. ANSYS LS-DYNA is the most used explicit simulation program capable of simulating the response of materials to short periods of severe loading. Its many elements, contact formulations, material models, and other controls can be used to simulate complex models with control over all the details of the problem. ANSYS LS-DYNA has a vast array of capabilities to simulate extreme deformation problems using its explicit solver. Engineers can tackle simulations involving material failure and look at how the failure progresses through a part or through a system. Models with large amounts of parts or surfaces interacting with each other are also easily handled, and the interactions and load passing between complex behaviors are modeled accurately. Using computers with higher numbers of CPU cores can drastically reduce solution times. In addition, many consulting firms and hundreds of universities use ANSYS for analysis, research, and educational purposes. ANSYS is recognized worldwide as one of the most widely used and capable programs of its type. ANSYS has successfully passed over 100 customer quality system audits against American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) NQA-1 and 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix B, since the company was founded, over 60 of which have been since 1997. ANSYS has successfully passed over 100 International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 9001 assessments. ANSYS design analysis software is the first created within a quality system with ISO 9001 certification, which is the internationally accepted quality standard. Product development, testing, maintenance, and support processes also meet the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) quality requirements, as they have for nearly four decades. ANSYS staff perform more than 60,000 software verification tests before releasing each new product. ASME NQA-1-2012 (Subpart 2.7 is specific to software) is the industry- and NRC-accepted approach (consensus standard) for meeting 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix B, requirements.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
A Bayesian approach to time-domain photonic Doppler velocimetry analysis
Photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) is an established technique for measuring the velocities of fast-moving surfaces in high-energy-density experiments. In the standard approach to PDV analysis, the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is used to generate a spectrogram from which the velocity history of the target is inferred. The user chooses the form, duration, and separation of the window function. Here, in this study, we present a Bayesian approach to infer the velocity directly from the PDV oscilloscope trace, without using the spectrogram for analysis. This is clearly a difficult inference problem due to the highly periodic nature of the data, but we find that with carefully chosen prior distributions for the model parameters, we can accurately recover the injected velocity from synthetic data. We validate this method using PDV data collected at the STAR two-stage light gas gun at Sandia National Laboratories, recovering shock-front velocities in quartz that are consistent with those inferred using the STFT-based approach and are interpolated across regions of low signal-to-noise data. Although this method does not rely on the same user choices as the STFT, we caution that it can be prone to misspecification if the chosen model is not sufficient to capture the velocity behavior. Analysis using posterior predictive checks can be used to establish whether a better model is required, although more complex models come with additional computational cost, often taking more than several hours to converge when sampling the Bayesian posterior. We, therefore, recommend it be viewed as a complementary method to that of the STFT-based approach.
Allison, James R. [First Light Fusion Ltd., Yarnto↗
Diagnosing the representation of surface and layered soil moisture in Earth system models
Surface soil moisture (mrsos) and vertically integrated soil moisture (mrsol) over the top 10 cm should, by definition, be physically consistent in Earth System Models (ESMs). However, an evaluation of nine CMIP6 models reveals substantial inconsistencies: in some models, mrsos and integrated mrsol agree globally; in others, they align only in specific regions; and in a few, they diverge across all grid cells. These discrepancies arise from a combination of factors, including metadata errors, inconsistent variable definitions, or diagnostic sequencing within the model. We demonstrate how such issues can lead to significant biases, even when both variables are present and seemingly well-defined. As model complexity increases and multi-model comparisons become more common, assumptions about variable equivalence may lead to flawed conclusions. This study highlights the need for routine consistency checks, improved metadata standards, and community-wide practices that ensure reliability of derived variables across ESM outputs, particularly in preparation for CMIP7.
Earth system models↗
Intelligent Partitioning based Fully Parallel AC Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow
Today’s power grid is becoming more diverse and integrated with high-level distributed energy resources and smart control technologies that is creating a new set of grid management challenges in terms of large-scale, nonlinear, and non-convex problem modeling, complex and time-consuming computation, as well as difficult uncertainty handling. This project focused on solving a challenging multi-period security-constrained generation scheduling problem, which is of great importance for maximizing the social welfare of real-time dispatch, day-ahead market, as well as weekly planning of power systems. Our developed software explored parallel optimization algorithms for complex and realistic power system models, and develop fast, efficient, and robust grid optimization solutions on the high-performance computing platform that will enable increased grid economics, flexibility, resilience, as well as energy security in the United States.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Intertwined States at Finite Temperatures in the Hubbard Model
We report significant advances in numerical techniques have enabled recent breakthroughs in the study of various properties of the Hubbard model - a seemingly simple, yet complex model of correlated electrons that has been a focus of study for more than half a century. In particular, it captures the essence of strong correlations, and is believed to possess various emergent, low energy states and collective excitations characteristic of cuprate high-temperature superconducting materials. While a thorough review of all activity is not possible here, we have focused the discussion on our recent work using unbiased, numerically exact, “brute force”, finite temperature quantum Monte Carlo methods. Our various studies reveal a rich variety of quantum liquid crystal phases, and complementary transport properties, which answer some questions, but certainly raise others concerning “strange metal” behavior and the ultimate fate of quasiparticles in the Hubbard model.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
High-Resolution Tandem Mass Spectrometry-Based Analysis of Model Lignin–Iron Complexes: Novel Pipeline and Complex Structures
Understanding the chemical nature of soil organic carbon (SOC) with great potential to bind iron (Fe) minerals is critical for predicting the stability of SOC. Organic ligands of Fe are among the top candidates for SOCs able to strongly sorb on Fe minerals, but most of them are still molecularly uncharacterized. To shed insights into the chemical nature of organic ligands in soil and their fate, this study developed a protocol for identifying organic ligands using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-high-resolution tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-HRMS/MS) and metabolomic tools. The protocol was used for investigating the Fe complexes formed by model compounds of lignin-derived organic ligands, namely, caffeic acid (CA), p-coumaric acid (CMA), vanillin (VNL), and cinnamic acid (CNA). Isotopologue analysis of 54/56 Fe was used to screen out the potential UHPLC-HRMS (m/z) features for complexes formed between organic ligands and Fe, with multiple features captured for CA, CMA, VNL, and CNA when 35/37 Cl isotopologue analysis was used as supplementary evidence for the complexes with Cl. MS/MS spectra, fragment analysis, and structure prediction with SIRIUS were used to annotate the structures of mono/bidentate mono/biligand complexes. The analysis determined the structures of monodentate and bidentate complexes of FeL x Cl y (L: organic ligand, x = 1–4, y = 0–3) formed by model compounds. The protocol developed in this study can be used to identify unknown organic ligands occurring in complex environmental samples and shed light on the molecular-level processes governing the stability of the SOC.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Application of spectroscopic evidence to diffuse layer model (DLM) parameter estimation for cation adsorption onto ferrihydrite in single- and bi-solute systems
The diffuse layer model (DLM) is one of the most frequently used surface complexation models (SCM) for predicting cation adsorption onto ferrihydrite. However, the DLM with its existing database sometimes fails to predict cation adsorption, especially in multi-solute systems. Notably, the failure is often attributed to inaccurate selection of the surface complexes and/or underestimation of the site density for DLM formulation. DLM simulations of batch adsorption data conducted with cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc on ferrihydrite in CO2 free systems demonstrates the ability of the DLM to fit single-solute data reasonably well but highlights its limitations with respect to predicting bi-solute data. Modifications to the DLM were made in two steps. First, spectroscopic evidence was used to guide cation complexation reactions at the ferrihydrite surface. Second, surface characteristics (reactive site density, specific surface area, and acidity constants) of ferrihydrite were updated according to recent literature. The results from this study suggest that when spectroscopic verification is employed and surface site density is increased, a simple two-site DLM can predict cation adsorption on ferrihydrite in single-solute systems for pH data above 3.5 and in most of the bi-solute systems tested.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach
Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Adsorption of REEs to Kaolinite via Ion Exchange and Surface Complexation as a Function of Water Chemistry
Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical components of modern technology behind renewable energy, transportation, and electronics but have a limited current supply. A substantial portion of global REE production relies on ion adsorption deposits. A high abundance of kaolinite in REE enrichment zones within these deposits suggests that kaolinite controls the subsurface migration of REEs. This study aimed to improve the current understanding of REE binding to kaolinite under varying water chemistry conditions. We conducted batch experiments with kaolinite (KGa-2) and three REEs (Nd, Dy, and Yb) at varying pH, electrolyte concentration, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), low molecular weight organic acids (citric and oxalic acids), and total REE concentration conditions. Increasing electrolyte concentration inhibits REE adsorption at pH < 7, suggesting that ion exchange contributes to adsorption at these pH values. DIC affects adsorption above pH 7–8 by forming strong aqueous complexes with heavy REEs. Citric acid decreases REE adsorption via aqueous complexation of REEs at pH > 5 but does not affect adsorption at pH < 5. The surface complexation model captures the main adsorption trends with two mechanisms: ion exchange on basal planes at pH < ∼6 and inner-sphere surface complexation to edge sites at pH > ∼6. Equilibrium constants for surface complexation increase in the order of Yb > Dy > Nd, indicating a higher strength of adsorption for heavy REEs. This study demonstrates how water chemistry conditions control the adsorption mechanisms that may determine the mobility of REEs in subsurface environments rich in kaolinite.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Adsorption of Rare Earth Elements to Kaolinite [dataset]
Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical components of modern technology behind renewable energy, transportation, and electronics but have a limited current supply. A substantial portion of global REE production relies on ion adsorption deposits. A high abundance of kaolinite in REE enrichment zones within these deposits suggests that kaolinite controls the subsurface migration of REEs. This study aimed to improve the current understanding of REE binding to kaolinite under varying water chemistry conditions. We conducted batch experiments with kaolinite (KGa-2) and three REEs (Nd, Dy, and Yb) at varying pH, electrolyte concentration, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), low molecular weight organic acids (citric and oxalic acids), and total REE concentration conditions. Increasing electrolyte concentration inhibits REE adsorption at pH 7, suggesting that ion exchange contributes to adsorption at these pH values. DIC affects adsorption above pH 7−8 by forming strong aqueous complexes with heavy REEs. Citric acid decreases REE adsorption via aqueous complexation of REEs at pH 5 but does not affect adsorption at pH 5. The surface complexation model captures the main adsorption trends with two mechanisms: ion exchange on basal planes at pH ∼6 and inner-sphere surface complexation to edge sites at pH ∼6. Equilibrium constants for surface complexation increase in the order of Yb Dy Nd, indicating a higher strength of adsorption for heavy REEs. This study demonstrates how water chemistry conditions control the adsorption mechanisms that may determine the mobility of REEs in subsurface environments rich in kaolinite.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A survey of unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in black-box-type problems
Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional O(10 n ), n ≥ 2, stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions, initial conditions) poses tremendous challenges. The “curse of dimensionality” can be addressed with suitable unsupervised learning techniques used as a pre-processing tool to encode inputs onto lower-dimensional subspaces while retaining its structural information and meaningful properties. In this work, we review and investigate thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods and utilize the resulting embeddings to construct a mapping to quantities of interest via polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). Here, we refer to the general proposed approach as manifold PCE (m-PCE), where manifold corresponds to the latent space resulting from any of the studied dimension reduction methods. To investigate the capabilities and limitations of these methods we conduct numerical tests for three physics-based systems (treated as black-boxes) having high-dimensional stochastic inputs of varying complexity modeled as both Gaussian and non-Gaussian random fields to investigate the effect of the intrinsic dimensionality of input data. We demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of the unsupervised learning methods and we conclude that a suitable m-PCE model provides a cost-effective approach compared to alternative algorithms proposed in the literature, including recently proposed expensive deep neural network-based surrogates and can be readily applied for high-dimensional UQ in stochastic PDEs.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Multi-Scale Thermal Analysis for Design of SiC-Based Medium Voltage Motor Drive: Preprint
This paper describes a multi-scale thermal analysis approach for the design of an air-cooled 1.7-kV SiC MOSFET-based medium-voltage variable-speed motor drive. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the project objectives by providing thermal management design support to the project partner The Ohio State University (OSU). The scope of the models and limited resources required efficient and flexible thermal models to be developed. Two modeling techniques are described that significantly reduced model run time and enabled more complex models to be run faster while retaining needed accuracy. The first technique uses the effectiveness-NTU method to extract convection boundary conditions from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model that can be applied to a fast-running finite element analysis model. The second is a porous media technique that enables system-level CFD simulations that incorporate effects from heat exchangers (e.g., pin fin heat sinks) that run in a fraction of the time required for fully resolved CFD simulations. The multi-scale approach to the thermal analysis enabled fast and accurate simulation for the converter design ranging from the die level up to the full system with 36 submodules. The modeling results were validated against experimental data from system tests performed by OSU.
DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗