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At least 127 records · Page 7

Kinetics of hydrogen-oxygen and methane-oxygen ignition sensitized by NO or NO2

In a study of methane ignition sensitized by NO2, the induction period chemical kinetics were examined by monitoring reactants and intermediates (CH4, NO2, OH, NO, CO, CO2, and H2O) prior to ignition. Data were obtained at pressure of 2-4 atm, temperatures of 1300-1900 K, equivalence ratios of 0.5-1.0, and NO2 up to 3.4 mole %. A tentative NO2 sensitization mechanism was deduced from the analysis of photometric observations and the comparison of computer modeling with observations.

Slack, M. W.↗

Impact of Archeomagnetic Field Model Data on Modern Era Geomagnetic Forecasts

A series of geomagnetic data assimilation experiments have been carried out to demonstrate the impact of assimilating archeomagnetic data via the CALS3k.4 geomagnetic field model from the period between 10 and 1590 CE. The assimilation continues with the gufm1 model from 1590 to 1990 and CM4 model from 1990 to 2000 as observations, and comparisons between these models and the geomagnetic forecasts are used to determine an optimal maximum degree for the archeomagnetic observations, and to independently estimate errors for these observations. These are compared with an assimilation experiment that uses the uncertainties provided with CALS3k.4. Optimal 20 year forecasts in 1990 are found when the Gauss coefficients up to degree 3 are assimilated. In addition we demonstrate how a forecast and observation bias correction scheme could be used to reduce bias in modern era forecasts. Initial experiments show that this approach can reduce modern era forecast biases by as much as 50 percent.

Tangborn, Andrew↗

An AeroCom Assessment of Black Carbon in Arctic Snow and Sea Ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng/g for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng/g for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng/g. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model-measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60-90degN) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07-0.25) W/sq m and 0.18 (0.06-0.28) W/sq m in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W/sq m for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

carbon↗

Lagrangian photochemical modeling studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex. I - Comparison with AAOE observations

Results from the Lagrangian photochemical model integrated along computed air parcel trajectories intersected by the ER-2 aircraft are presented and compared with AAOE observations. According to the model, the BrO observations made from the ER-2 within the dehydrated denitrified region are consistent with there being approximately 5 parts per trillion by volume of BrO(y) at 428 K in spring. Within the high ClO region, ozone destruction rates are expected to exceed 2 percent/d with approximately 80 percent due to the ClO dimer mechanism.

Jones, R. L.↗

Coronal Physics and the Chandra Emission Line Project

With the launch of the Chandra X-ray Observatory, high resolution X-ray spectroscopy of cosmic sources has begun. Early, deep observations of three stellar coronal sources will provide not only invaluable calibration data, but will also give us benchmarks for plasma spectral modeling codes. These codes are to interpret data from stellar coronae, galaxies and clusters of galaxies. supernova remnants and other astrophysical sources, but they have been called into question in recent years as problems with understanding moderate resolution ASCA and EUVE data have arisen. The Emission Line Project is a collaborative effort to improve the models, with Phase 1 being the comparison of models with observed spectra of Capella, Procyon, and HR, 1099. Goals of these comparisons are (1) to determine and verify accurate and robust diagnostics and (2) to identify and prioritize issues in fundamental spectroscopy which will require further theoretical and/or laboratory work. A critical issue in exploiting the coronal data for these purposes is to understand the extent to which common simplifying assumptions (coronal equilibrium, time-independence, negligible optical depth) apply. We will discuss recent advances in our understanding of stellar coronae in this context.

Brickhouse, Nancy↗

Coronal Physics and the Chandra Emission Line Project

With the launch of the Chandra X-ray Observatory, high resolution X-ray spectroscopy of cosmic sources has begun. Early, deep observations of three stellar coronal sources Capella, Procyon, and HR 1099 are providing not only invaluable calibration data, but also benchmarks for plasma spectral models. These models are needed to interpret data from stellar coronae, galaxies and clusters of galaxies, supernova, remnants and other astrophysical sources. They have been called into question in recent years as problems with understanding low resolution ASCA and moderate resolution Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Satellite (EUVE) data have arisen. The Emission Line Project is a collaborative effort, to improve the models, with Phase I being the comparison of models with observed spectra of Capella, Procyon, and HR 1099. Goals of these comparisons are (1) to determine and verify accurate and robust diagnostics and (2) to identify and prioritize issues in fundamental spectroscopy which will require further theoretical and/or laboratory work. A critical issue in exploiting the coronal data for these purposes is to understand the extent, to which common simplifying assumptions (coronal equilibrium, negligible optical depth) apply. We will discuss recent, advances in our understanding of stellar coronae, in this context.

Brickhouse, N. S.↗

Aerosol Absorption in Global Models From AeroCom Phase III

Aerosol-induced absorption of shortwave radiation can modify the climate through local atmospheric heating, which affects lapse rates, precipitation, and cloud formation. Presently, the total amount of aerosol absorption is poorly constrained, and the main absorbing aerosol species (black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA), and mineral dust) are diversely quantified in global climate models. As part of the third phase of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) intercomparison initiative (AeroCom phase III), we here document the distribution and magnitude of aerosol absorption in current global aerosol models and quantify the sources of intermodel spread, highlighting the difficulties of attributing absorption to different species. In total, 15 models have provided total present-day absorption at 550 nm (using year 2010 emissions), 11 of which have provided absorption per absorbing species. The multi-model global annual mean total absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) is 0.0054 (0.0020 to 0.0098; 550 nm), with the range given as the minimum and maximum model values. This is 28 % higher compared to the 0.0042 (0.0021 to 0.0076) multi-model mean in AeroCom phase II (using year 2000 emissions), but the difference is within 1 standard deviation, which, in this study, is 0.0023 (0.0019 in Phase II). Of the summed component AAOD, 60 % (range 36 %–84 %) is estimated to be due to BC, 31 % (12 %–49 %) is due to dust, and 11 % (0 %–24 %) is due to OA; however, the components are not independent in terms of their absorbing efficiency. In models with internal mixtures of absorbing aerosols, a major challenge is the lack of a common and simple method to attribute absorption to the different absorbing species. Therefore, when possible, the models with internally mixed aerosols in the present study have performed simulations using the same method for estimating absorption due to BC, OA, and dust, namely by removing it and comparing runs with and without the absorbing species. We discuss the challenges of attributing absorption to different species; we compare burden, refractive indices, and density; and we contrast models with internal mixing to models with external mixing. The model mean BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) value is 10.1 (3.1 to 17.7) m 2 g −1 (550 nm), and the model mean BC AAOD is 0.0030 (0.0007 to 0.0077). The difference in lifetime (and burden) in the models explains as much of the BC AAOD spread as the difference in BC MAC values. The difference in the spectral dependency between the models is striking. Several models have an absorption Ångstrøm exponent (AAE) close to 1, which likely is too low given current knowledge of spectral aerosol optical properties. Most models do not account for brown carbon and underestimate the spectral dependency for OA.

Aerosol absorption↗

Comparison of Two IRI plasmasphere Extensions with GPS-TEC Observations

Comparisons of two model results with Global Positioning System GPS-TEC measurements have been carried out for different latitudinal, solar activity, magnetic activity, diurnal and seasonal conditions. The models evaluated are the Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM-2000) and the IRI extension with Russian plasmasphere model (IRI*).Data of 23 observatories providing GPS-TEC and ionosonde data have been used. It is shown that IRI* plasmasphere electron density is greater than GCPM results by an order of magnitude at 6370 km altitude (one Earth's radius) with this excess growing to 2-3 orders of magnitude towards the GPS satellite altitude of 20000 km. Another source of model and GPS-TEC differences is a way of selection of the F2 layer peak parameters driving the models either with ITU-R (former CCIR) maps or ionosonde observations. Plasmasphere amendment to IRI improves accuracy of TEC model predictions because the plasmasphere contribution to the total TEC varies from 10% by daytime under quiet magnetic conditions to more than 50% by night under stormy conditions.

Gulyaeva, T. L.↗

Comparisons of the Standard Galaxy Model with observations in two fields

The Bahcall-Soneira (1984) model for the distribution of stars in the Galaxy is compared with the observations reported by Gilmore, Reid, and Hewett (1984) in two directions in the sky, the pole and the Morton-Tritton (1982) region. It is shown that the Galaxy model is in good agreement with the observations everywhere it has been tested with modern data, including the magnitude range, V = 17-18, and provided that the globular cluster feature is included in the luminosity function of the field Population II stars.

Bahcall, J. N.↗

Multiparameter radar study of a microburst - Comparison with model results

Radar observations and model results are used to investigate the microphysical evolution of an isolated, intense storm observed on July 20, 1988 during the Microburst and Severe Thunderstorm experiment. The storm grew to a height of 14 km and upon collapsing, produced heavy rain, pea-sized hail, and a microburst at the surface. The radar observations indicate that the initial precipitation development was by collision-coalescence. As the storm intensified, accretional growth became dominant leading to rapid precipitation development. Radar-derived rainfall rates peaked around 150 to 190 mm/h. Each morning during the experiment, a two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model, initialized with the morning sounding, was run. The model results from the July 20 sounding are compared to the radar observations. Good agreement is shown in some aspects of the storm development, although the numerical simulation predicted a more vigorous storm than actually developed.

Tuttle, John D.↗

The evolution of large-scale structure in a universe dominated by cold dark matter

The results of numerical simulations of nonlinear gravitational clustering in universes dominated by weakly interacting, 'cold' dark matter are presented. The numerical methods used and the way in which initial conditions were generated are described, and the simulations performed are catalogued. The evolution of the fundamental statistical properties of the models is described and their comparability with observation is discussed. Graphical comparisons of these open models with the observed galaxy distribution in a large redshift survey are made. It is concluded that a model with a cosmological density parameter omega equal to one is quite unacceptable if galaxies trace the mass distribution, and that models with omega of roughly two, while better, still do not provide a fully acceptable match with observation. Finally, a situation in which galaxy formation is suppressed except in sufficiently dense regions is modelled which leads to models which can agree with observation quite well even for omega equal to one.

Davis, M.↗

Nitrogen and chlorine species in the spring Antarctic stratosphere - Comparison of models with Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment observations

The concentrations and the time development of chlorine and nitrogen trace gases in the Antarctic stratosphere before, during, and after the Airborne Antractic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) were simulated using photochemical models of the Antractic stratosphere during winter/spring. The initial conditions in the calculations were constrained using observations by the AAOE instrument. The comparison of calculated results with the AAOE measurements of HCl and ClO suggest that heterogeneous chemistry was maintained throughout the month of September 1987.

Rodriguez, J. M.↗

Evaluation of Cirrus Cloud Simulations using ARM Data-Development of Case Study Data Set

Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are being increasingly used to develop parametric treatments of clouds and related processes for use in global climate models (GCMs). CRMs represent the integrated knowledge of the physical processes acting to determine cloud system lifecycle and are well matched to typical observational data in terms of physical parameters/measurables and scale-resolved physical processes. Thus, they are suitable for direct comparison to field observations for model validation and improvement. The goal of this project is to improve state-of-the-art CRMs used for studies of cirrus clouds and to establish a relative calibration with GCMs through comparisons among CRMs, single column model (SCM) versions of the GCMs, and observations. The objective is to compare and evaluate a variety of CRMs and SCMs, under the auspices of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2), using ARM data acquired at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. This poster will report on progress in developing a suitable WG2 case study data set based on the September 26, 1996 ARM IOP case - the Hurricane Nora outflow case. Progress is assessing cloud and other environmental conditions will be described. Results of preliminary simulations using a regional cloud system model (MM5) and a CRM will be discussed. Focal science questions for the model comparison are strongly based on results of the idealized GCSS WG2 cirrus cloud model comparison projects (Idealized Cirrus Cloud Model Comparison Project and Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project), which will also be briefly summarized.

Starr, David OC.↗

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.

Kuznetsova, M.↗

Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Studies for the loss of atomic and molecular species from Io

The general objective of this project is to advance theoretical understanding of Io's atmosphere and how various atomic and molecular species are lost from this atmosphere and are distributed in the circumplanetary environment of Jupiter. The major task for the University of Michigan portion of this work is the generalization of the Io sodium cloud model to simulate the ion-precursor of sodium that is the apparent source of the fast sodium jet observed by Schneider et al. (1991). The goal is a quantitative test of the molecular ion hypothesis with a model that is comparable to a general sodium cloud model published previously. A detailed comparison of observations with such a model will help to probe the feasibility of such a source and to examine the rates and scale lengths associated with the decay of the ion precursor so as to possibly uncover the identity of the parent ion. Another important task to be performed at Michigan is more support of AER in the general area of modeling the Na and SO2-family clouds.

Combi, Michael R.↗