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NASA NTRS2012

HyDE Framework for Stochastic and Hybrid Model-Based Diagnosis

Hybrid Diagnosis Engine (HyDE) is a general framework for stochastic and hybrid model-based diagnosis that offers flexibility to the diagnosis application designer. The HyDE architecture supports the use of multiple modeling paradigms at the component and system level. Several alternative algorithms are available for the various steps in diagnostic reasoning. This approach is extensible, with support for the addition of new modeling paradigms as well as diagnostic reasoning algorithms for existing or new modeling paradigms. HyDE is a general framework for stochastic hybrid model-based diagnosis of discrete faults; that is, spontaneous changes in operating modes of components. HyDE combines ideas from consistency-based and stochastic approaches to model- based diagnosis using discrete and continuous models to create a flexible and extensible architecture for stochastic and hybrid diagnosis. HyDE supports the use of multiple paradigms and is extensible to support new paradigms. HyDE generates candidate diagnoses and checks them for consistency with the observations. It uses hybrid models built by the users and sensor data from the system to deduce the state of the system over time, including changes in state indicative of faults. At each time step when observations are available, HyDE checks each existing candidate for continued consistency with the new observations. If the candidate is consistent, it continues to remain in the candidate set. If it is not consistent, then the information about the inconsistency is used to generate successor candidates while discarding the candidate that was inconsistent. The models used by HyDE are similar to simulation models. They describe the expected behavior of the system under nominal and fault conditions. The model can be constructed in modular and hierarchical fashion by building component/subsystem models (which may themselves contain component/ subsystem models) and linking them through shared variables/parameters. The component model is expressed as operating modes of the component and conditions for transitions between these various modes. Faults are modeled as transitions whose conditions for transitions are unknown (and have to be inferred through the reasoning process). Finally, the behavior of the components is expressed as a set of variables/ parameters and relations governing the interaction between the variables. The hybrid nature of the systems being modeled is captured by a combination of the above transitional model and behavioral model. Stochasticity is captured as probabilities associated with transitions (indicating the likelihood of that transition being taken), as well as noise on the sensed variables.

Narasimhan, Sriram↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Efficient Model-based Diagnosis Engine for Hybrid Systems Using Structural Model Decomposition

Complex hybrid systems are present in a large range of engineering applications, like mechanical systems, electrical circuits, or embedded computation systems. The behavior of these systems is made up of continuous and discrete event dynamics that increase the difficulties for accurate and timely online fault diagnosis. The Hybrid Diagnosis Engine (HyDE) offers flexibility to the diagnosis application designer to choose the modeling paradigm and the reasoning algorithms. The HyDE architecture supports the use of multiple modeling paradigms at the component and system level. However, HyDE faces some problems regarding performance in terms of complexity and time. Our focus in this paper is on developing efficient model-based methodologies for online fault diagnosis in complex hybrid systems. To do this, we propose a diagnosis framework where structural model decomposition is integrated within the HyDE diagnosis framework to reduce the computational complexity associated with the fault diagnosis of hybrid systems. As a case study, we apply our approach to a diagnostic testbed, the Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT), using real data.

Structural Decomposition↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Study on the Requirements for Fast Active Turbine Tip Clearance Control Systems

This paper addresses the requirements of a control system for active turbine tip clearance control in a generic commercial turbofan engine through design and analysis. The control objective is to articulate the shroud in the high pressure turbine section in order to maintain a certain clearance set point given several possible engine transient events. The system must also exhibit reasonable robustness to modeling uncertainties and reasonable noise rejection properties. Two actuators were chosen to fulfill such a requirement, both of which possess different levels of technological readiness: electrohydraulic servovalves and piezoelectric stacks. Identification of design constraints, desired actuator parameters, and actuator limitations are addressed in depth; all of which are intimately tied with the hardware and controller design process. Analytical demonstrations of the performance and robustness characteristics of the two axisymmetric LQG clearance control systems are presented. Takeoff simulation results show that both actuators are capable of maintaining the clearance within acceptable bounds and demonstrate robustness to parameter uncertainty. The present model-based control strategy was employed to demonstrate the tradeoff between performance, control effort, and robustness and to implement optimal state estimation in a noisy engine environment with intent to eliminate ad hoc methods for designing reliable control systems.

DeCastro, Jonathan A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Safety Analysis for Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs)

A Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) is a Department of Energy (DOE) construct that defines the extent to which a nuclear facility can be operated safely. It includes a description of hazards, safe boundaries, and hazard controls. The authors assert that a Digital Safety Analysis (DgSA) is far superior to a legacy DSA for several reasons: • The underling database is structured such that it is possible to perform a comprehensive design review and safety analysis by iterating systematically across a hierarchy of linked objects versus a redundant and spotty review by entities of various abilities under unknown resource and schedule constraints. • The analysis of a new design can discover elements that are similar to elements in previous designs. The discovery of similarities is made possible by using the same structure for the underlying database for each new DgSA. The “prior learning” from previous designs is then applied automatically to new designs. • Outputs from the DgSA are from a single source to ensure consistency among various views of the same information. After the DgSA is released, the continued use of a single source implements a configuration management program to ensure consistency between the design basis, the design, the built system, and system procedures. • The development of the DgSA is agile in that any change in a linked object triggers an analysis of impacts on other linked objects and updates of linked objects are made accordingly. After the DgSA is released, the continued maintenance of these links and objects automates the “unreviewed safety question” process.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗
NASA NTRS1991

Getting expert systems off the ground: Lessons learned from integrating model-based diagnostics with prototype flight hardware

As an initial attempt to introduce expert system technology into an onboard environment, a model based diagnostic system using the TRW MARPLE software tool was integrated with prototype flight hardware and its corresponding control software. Because this experiment was designed primarily to test the effectiveness of the model based reasoning technique used, the expert system ran on a separate hardware platform, and interactions between the control software and the model based diagnostics were limited. While this project met its objective of showing that model based reasoning can effectively isolate failures in flight hardware, it also identified the need for an integrated development path for expert system and control software for onboard applications. In developing expert systems that are ready for flight, artificial intelligence techniques must be evaluated to determine whether they offer a real advantage onboard, identify which diagnostic functions should be performed by the expert systems and which are better left to the procedural software, and work closely with both the hardware and the software developers from the beginning of a project to produce a well designed and thoroughly integrated application.

Stephan, Amy↗
NASA NTRS1993

Applications of artificial intelligence 1993: Knowledge-based systems in aerospace and industry; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, Apr. 13-15, 1993

The present volume on applications of artificial intelligence with regard to knowledge-based systems in aerospace and industry discusses machine learning and clustering, expert systems and optimization techniques, monitoring and diagnosis, and automated design and expert systems. Attention is given to the integration of AI reasoning systems and hardware description languages, care-based reasoning, knowledge, retrieval, and training systems, and scheduling and planning. Topics addressed include the preprocessing of remotely sensed data for efficient analysis and classification, autonomous agents as air combat simulation adversaries, intelligent data presentation for real-time spacecraft monitoring, and an integrated reasoner for diagnosis in satellite control. Also discussed are a knowledge-based system for the design of heat exchangers, reuse of design information for model-based diagnosis, automatic compilation of expert systems, and a case-based approach to handling aircraft malfunctions.

Fayyad, Usama M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Microwave and infrared simulations of an intense convective system and comparison with aircraft observations

A three-dimensional cloud model, radiative transfer model-based simulation system is tested and validated against the aircraft-based radiance observations of an intense convective system in southeastern Virginia on 29 June 1986 during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment. NASA's ER-2, a high-altitude research aircraft with a complement of radiometers operating at 11-micrometer infrared channel and 18-, 37-, 92-, and 183-GHz microwave channels provided data for this study. The cloud model successfully simulated the cloud system with regard to aircraft- and radar-observed cloud-top heights and diameters and with regard to radar-observed reflectivity structure. For the simulation time found to correspond best with the aircraft- and radar-observed structure, brightness temperatures T(sub b) are simulated and compared with observations for all the microwave frequencies along with the 11-micrometer infrared channel. Radiance calculations at the various frequencies correspond well with the aircraft observations in the areas of deep convection. The clustering of 37-147-GHz T(sub b) observations and the isolation of the 18-GHz values over the convective cores are well simulated by the model. The radiative transfer model, in general, is able to simulate the observations reasonably well from 18 GHz through 174 GHz within all convective areas of the cloud system. When the aircraft-observed 18- and 37-GHz, and 90- and 174-GHz T(sub b) are plotted against each other, the relationships have a gradual difference in the slope due to the differences in the ice particle size in the convective and more stratiform areas of the cloud. The model is able to capture these differences observed by the aircraft. Brightness temperature-rain rate relationships compare reasonably well with the aircraft observations in terms of the slope of the relationship. The model calculations are also extended to select high-frequency channels at 220, 340, and 400 GHz to simulate the Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer aircraft instrument to be flown in the near future. All three of these frequencies are able to discriminate the convective and anvil portions of the system, providing useful information similar to that from the frequencies below 183 GHz but with potentially enhanced spatial resolution from a satellite platform. In thin clouds, the dominant effect of water vapor is seen at 174, 340, and 400 GHz. In thick cloudy areas, the scattering effect is dominant at 90 and 220 GHz, while the overlaying water vapor can attenuate at 174, 340, and 400 GHz. All frequencies (90-400 GHz) show strong signatures in the core.

Prasad, N.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The 13th Technology of Deep Space One - Abstract

On October 24th, 1998, the Deep Space One (DS-1) spacecraft launched aboard a Delta II rocket as the first step towards the bold task of testing and validating 12 new technologies for future missions. This launch also represented yet another thrilling event; namely, the successful test and validation of a 13th heretofore undisclosed technology: model-based code-generation of the spacecraft's system-level fault-protection (FP) software from behavioral state diagrams and structural models.In this paper, we describe the process we used to leverage model-based code generation from state diagrams and structural specifications to better respond to the evolving requirements and scope of DS- I's system-level fault-protection design, development, test and operation. The evolution of the high-level design and the low-level changes in the flight software architecture and interfaces contributed to multiplying the number and frequency of fault-protection software releases thereby creating a multitude of software integration issues. To address the resulting software integration issues, we broadened the scope of code -eneration to other forms of model- based analysis techniques more traditionally associated with first-principle's reasoning about physical models. Additionally, we describe our in-flight launch and initial acquisition experience.

Rouquette, Nicolas↗
NASA NTRS2000

Verification and Validation of Autonomy Software at NASA

Autonomous software holds the promise of new operation possibilities, easier design and development, and lower operating costs. However, as those system close control loops and arbitrate resources on-board with specialized reasoning, the range of possible situations becomes very large and uncontrollable from the outside, making conventional scenario-based testing very inefficient. Analytic verification and validation (V&V) techniques, and model checking in particular, can provide significant help for designing autonomous systems in a more efficient and reliable manner, by providing a better coverage and allowing early error detection. This article discusses the general issue of V&V of autonomy software, with an emphasis towards model-based autonomy, model-checking techniques, and concrete experiments at NASA.

Pecheur, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2000

Verification and Validation of Autonomy Software at NASA

Autonomous software holds the promise of new operation possibilities, easier design and development and lower operating costs. However, as those system close control loops and arbitrate resources on board with specialized reasoning, the range of possible situations becomes very large and uncontrollable from the outside, making conventional scenario-based testing very inefficient. Analytic verification and validation (V&V) techniques, and model checking in particular, can provide significant help for designing autonomous systems in a more efficient and reliable manner, by providing a better coverage and allowing early error detection. This article discusses the general issue of V&V of autonomy software, with an emphasis towards model-based autonomy, model-checking techniques and concrete experiments at NASA.

Pecheur, Charles↗
NASA NTRS1998

Integration of the Remote Agent for the NASA Deep Space One Autonomy Experiment

This paper describes the integration of the Remote Agent (RA), a spacecraft autonomy system which is scheduled to control the Deep Space 1 spacecraft during a flight experiment in 1999. The RA is a reusable, model-based autonomy system that is quite different from software typically used to control an aerospace system. We describe the integration challenges we faced, how we addressed them, and the lessons learned. We focus on those aspects of integrating the RA that were either easier or more difficult than integrating a more traditional large software application because the RA is a model-based autonomous system. A number of characteristics of the RA made integration process easier. One example is the model-based nature of RA. Since the RA is model-based, most of its behavior is not hard coded into procedural program code. Instead, engineers specify high level models of the spacecraft's components from which the Remote Agent automatically derives correct system-wide behavior on the fly. This high level, modular, and declarative software description allowed some interfaces between RA components and between RA and the flight software to be automatically generated and tested for completeness against the Remote Agent's models. In addition, the Remote Agent's model-based diagnosis system automatically diagnoses when the RA models are not consistent with the behavior of the spacecraft. In flight, this feature is used to diagnose failures in the spacecraft hardware. During integration, it proved valuable in finding problems in the spacecraft simulator or flight software. In addition, when modifications are made to the spacecraft hardware or flight software, the RA models are easily changed because they only capture a description of the spacecraft. one does not have to maintain procedural code that implements the correct behavior for every expected situation. On the other hand, several features of the RA made it more difficult to integrate than typical flight software. For example, the definition of correct behavior is more difficult to specify for a system that is expected to reason about and flexibly react to its environment than for a traditional flight software system. Consequently, whenever a change is made to the RA it is more time consuming to determine if the resulting behavior is correct. We conclude the paper with a discussion of future work on the Remote Agent as well as recommendations to ease integration of similar autonomy projects.

Dorais, Gregory A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Coronal Abundance Variations

The PI of this project was Jeff Scargle of NASA/Ames. Co-I's were Alma Connors of Eureka Scientific/Wellesley, and myself. Part of the work was subcontracted to Eureka Scientific via SAO, with Vinay Kashyap as PI. This project was originally assigned grant number NCC2-1206, and was later changed to NCC2-1350 for administrative reasons. The goal of the project was to obtain, derive, and develop statistical and data analysis tools that would be of use in the analyses of high-resolution, high-sensitivity data that are becoming available with new instruments. This is envisioned as a cross-disciplinary effort with a number of "collaborators" including some at SA0 (Aneta Siemiginowska, Peter Freeman) and at the Harvard Statistics department (David van Dyk, Rostislav Protassov, Xiao-li Meng, Epaminondas Sourlas, et al). We have developed a new tool to reliably measure the metallicities of thermal plasma. It is unfeasible to obtain high-resolution grating spectra for most stars, and one must make the best possible determination based on lower-resolution, CCD-type spectra. It has been noticed that most analyses of such spectra have resulted in measured metallicities that were significantly lower than when compared with analyses of high- resolution grating data where available (see, e.g., Brickhouse et al., 2000, ApJ 530,387). Such results have led to the proposal of the existence of so-called Metal Abundance Deficient, or "MAD" stars (e.g., Drake, J.J., 1996, Cool Stars 9, ASP Conf.Ser. 109, 203). We however find that much of these analyses may be systematically underestimating the metallicities, and using a newly developed method to correctly treat the low-counts regime at the high-energy tail of the stellar spectra (van Dyk et al. 2001, ApJ 548,224), have found that the metallicities of these stars are generally comparable to their photospheric values. The results were reported at the AAS (Sourlas, Yu, van Dyk, Kashyap, and Drake, 2000, BAAS 196, v32, #54.02), and at the conference on Statistical Challenges in Modem Astronomy (Sourlas, van Dyk, Kashyap, Drake, and Pease, 2003, SCMA 111, Eds. E.D.Feigelson, G.J.Babu, New York:Springer, p489-490). We also described the limitations of one of the most egregiously misused and misapplied statistical tests in astrophysical literature, the F-test for verifying model components (Protassov, van Dyk, Connors, Kashyap, and Siemiginowska, 2002, ApJ, 571,545). Indeed, a search through the ApJ archives turned up 170 papers in the 5 previous years that used the F-test explicitly in some form or the other, and with the vast majority of them not using it correctly! Indeed, looking at just 4 issues of the ApJ in 2001, we found 13 instances of its use, of which nine were demonstrably incorrect. Clearly, it is difficult to understate the importance of this issue. We also worked on speeding up Bayes Blocks and Sparse Bayes Blocks algorithms to make them more tractable for large searches. We also supported staistics students and postdocs in both explicit physics- model-based (spectra with tens of thousands of atomic lines) and "model-free" -- i.e. non-parametric or semi-parametric -- algorithms. Work on using more of the latter is just beginning; while using multi-scale methods for Poisson imaging has come to hition. In fact, "An Image Restoration Technique with Error Estimates", by D. Esch, A. Connors, M. Karovska, and D. van Dyk, was published by ApJ (Esch et a1.2004, ApJ, 610, 1213). The code has been delivered to M. Karovska for CXC; and is available for beta-testing upon request. The other large project we worked on was on the self-consistent modeling of logN-logs curves in the Poisson limit. logN-logs curves are a fundamental tool in the study of source populations, luminosity functions, and cosmological parameters. However, their determination is hampered by statistical effects such as the Eddington bias, incompleteness due to detection efficiency, faint source flux fluctuations, etc. We have develed a new and powerful method using the full Poisson machinery that allows us to model the logN-logs distribution of X-ray sources in a self-consistent manner. Because we properly account for all the above statistical effects, our modeling is valid over the full range of the data, and not just for strong sources, as is normally done. Using a Bayesian approach and modeling the fluxes with known functional forms such as simple or broken power-laws, and conditioning the expected photon counts on the fluxes, the background contamination, effective area, detector vignetting, and detection probability, we can delve deeply into the low counts regime and extend the usefulness of medium sensitivity surveys such as ChAMP by orders of magnitude. The built-in flexibility of the algorithm also allows a simultaneous analysis of multiple datasets. We have applied this analysis to a set a Chandra observations (Sourlas, Kashyap, Zezas, van Dyk, 2004, HEAD #8, #16.32)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Sensor Selection and Data Validation for Reliable Integrated System Health Management

For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.

Garg, Sanjay↗
NASA NTRS2011

MOS 2.0: Modeling the Next Revolutionary Mission Operations System

Designed and implemented in the 1980's, the Advanced Multi-Mission Operations System (AMMOS) was a breakthrough for deep-space NASA missions, enabling significant reductions in the cost and risk of implementing ground systems. By designing a framework for use across multiple missions and adaptability to specific mission needs, AMMOS developers created a set of applications that have operated dozens of deep-space robotic missions over the past 30 years. We seek to leverage advances in technology and practice of architecting and systems engineering, using model-based approaches to update the AMMOS. We therefore revisit fundamental aspects of the AMMOS, resulting in a major update to the Mission Operations System (MOS): MOS 2.0. This update will ensure that the MOS can support an increasing range of mission types, (such as orbiters, landers, rovers, penetrators and balloons), and that the operations systems for deep-space robotic missions can reap the benefits of an iterative multi-mission framework.12 This paper reports on the first phase of this major update. Here we describe the methods and formal semantics used to address MOS 2.0 architecture and some early results. Early benefits of this approach include improved stakeholder input and buy-in, the ability to articulate and focus effort on key, system-wide principles, and efficiency gains obtained by use of well-architected design patterns and the use of models to improve the quality of documentation and decrease the effort required to produce and maintain it. We find that such methods facilitate reasoning, simulation, analysis on the system design in terms of design impacts, generation of products (e.g., project-review and software-delivery products), and use of formal process descriptions to enable goal-based operations. This initial phase yields a forward-looking and principled MOS 2.0 architectural vision, which considers both the mission-specific context and long-term system sustainability.

ground support systems↗
NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Adjustment of Simulation Parameters for Efficient Vehicle Prognostics

Model-based diagnostics and prognostics rely on state estimation and uncertainty management algorithms to produce useful information for system operators and maintainers. This information enables more informed operational decisions, condition-based maintenance, and overall mission safety assurance. Typically, uncertainty is associated with vehicle state-of-health estimation and prediction results because of modeling errors, internal or external sources of noise, and sensor inaccuracy. Probabilistic uncertainty management methods including Sequential Monte Carlo simulation are commonly used to reason about state-of-health estimates and predictions in the presence of these sources of uncertainty. However, such algorithms can be computationally expensive as they require a very large number of samples to obtain a sufficiently accurate quantification of the end of life probability distribution. As a result, highly mobile autonomous systems that leverage the prognostic results for mission-level replanning are often constrained in their processing capability because of these computationally expensive simulation approaches. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate algorithmic methods for dynamically adjusting simulation time step as well as number of samples to achieve highly efficient prognostic results while maintaining results accuracy. Results obtained from simulated flight experiments of an electric unmanned aerial vehicle are presented to verify the efficacy of such algorithms.

Prognostics↗
NASA NTRS2016

JPL's Foundry Furnace: Web-Based Concurrent Engineering for Formulation

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Innovation Foundry is an enterprise tasked with shepherding space mission concepts through the formulation lifecycle. It oversees a number of “virtual teams” for the various stages of formulation. Among these is Team X, which has had considerable success over its more than 20-year history. In a Team X study, domain experts (including engineers devoted to the various spacecraft subsystems) work concurrently and collaboratively over several days to arrive at a feasible point design with a reasonable cost estimate. They use a set of linked Excel workbooks, each developed and approved by a responsible “line organization” within JPL. This toolset has served Team X well over the years, and has evolved since its inception. At the same time, the Innovation Foundry’s portfolio of formulation teams has expanded, and so has the scope of the design challenges they face. The A-Team runs workshop-like architecture studies to focus science investigations, generate mission concepts, assess feasibility, and explore trade spaces. Team Xc performs rapid point design in the style of Team X, but for CubeSats and small spacecraft, using a different toolset. Proposal teams further mature concepts to the point where they can be proposed. Recognizing the importance of trade space modeling combined with new IT services for providing and integrating data, JPL is developing the Foundry Furnace web-based software infrastructure. It will support A-Team, Team Xc, and Team X, providing study management, a catalog of hardware components, a library of re-usable analyses, and a design environment. It is a modernization of JPL’s concurrent engineering infrastructure, embracing the core concepts of Model-Based Systems Engineering, and built with modern software design philosophies.

Murphy, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exposing Hidden Parts of the SE Process: MBSE Patterns and Tools for Tracking and Traceability

An interesting benefit of applying Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is that the rigor and coordination intrinsic to MBSE forces us to apply Systems Engineering to our own traditional activities, processes, and products, which results in richer, more expressive models, more powerful reasoning, and a clearer and more effective Systems Engineering (SE) process. Our MBSE frameworks and languages contain semantic richness sufficient to describe our systems at any particular point in time, often with an emphasis on the description of the system at major milestones. This is unarguably a real asset. However, when we apply MBSE in service of missions that are in development, rapidly evolving, of a larger scale, and where interpersonal communication is a critical part of the design process, we discover that our frameworks and languages are still not quite rich enough to enable us to ask the kinds of questions and get the kinds of answers we want in order to address the concerns of day to day work. This paper will discuss some patterns and tools we have developed to help address some of the not-always-explicit SE concerns that we have identified through our MBSE work. Particularly, this paper will discuss flexible yet practical methods for defining and capturing maturity, workflow, and agreement traceability within our system models, extensible ways to perform and track model audits, and ways to report and interact with this knowledge in the context of MBSE applied to support NASA’s Europa Project.

Jackson, Maddalena↗