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NASA NTRS2016

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of timedependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000-2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model-observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

carbon monoxide↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laser Absorption Spectroscopy Measurements of Post-Shock Non-Equilibrium Species in the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube

The NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) is a unique facility capable of generating high enthalpy, shock-heated impulse gas flows representative of the kinetic and radiative conditions encountered by atmospheric entry vehicles. The facility maintains a successful history with emission spectroscopy, providing measurements of absolute radiance upon which various validation studies are anchored. The central objective of this work is to develop a comprehensive tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) sensing capability to provide complementary experimental insights to existing emission techniques. More specifically, a fast-scanning TDLAS-based diagnostic targeting the cyano radical (CN) in the near-infrared(near-IR) near 926.6 nm is employed in mixtures of 2.2% CH4in N2by mole for a sweep of incident shock velocities ranging 3.0-5.5 km/s and fill pressures 0.3-1.15 Torr. Laser scan rates up to 500 kHz probe multiple absorption features to provide quantitative measurements of temperature and species number density profiles behind the incident shock. In all instances, the temperature trend is consistent between emission-inferred and TDLAS-inferred measurements. However, at the lower-velocity conditions, there is an appreciable offset between the Data Parallel Line Relaxation Code (DPLR) simulation and experimental measurements. A similar behavior is observed in number density profiles, with emission measurements providing inferences of the CN(B) and CN(A) state, while TDLAS measurements provide an additional inference of the CN(X) state. In the fast-scanned experiments, measurement inferred number densities suggest a much faster production of CN at early times than captured by the model. This discrepancy motivates ongoing, additional spectroscopic and kinetics CN experiments to resolve the accuracy of modeling assumptions.

Efaine Chang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced production of 60 Fe in massive stars

Massive stars are a major source of chemical elements in the cosmos, ejecting freshly produced nuclei through winds and core-collapse supernova explosions into the interstellar medium. Among the material ejected, long-lived radioisotopes, such as 60 Fe (iron) and 26 Al (aluminum), offer unique signs of active nucleosynthesis in our galaxy. There is a long-standing discrepancy between the observed 60 Fe/ 26 Al ratio by γ-ray telescopes and predictions from supernova models. This discrepancy has been attributed to uncertainties in the nuclear reaction networks producing 60 Fe, and one reaction in particular, the neutron-capture on 59 Fe. Here we present experimental results that provide a strong constraint on this reaction. We use these results to show that the production of 60 Fe in massive stars is higher than previously thought, further increasing the discrepancy between observed and predicted 60 Fe/ 26 Al ratios. The persisting discrepancy can therefore not be attributed to nuclear uncertainties, and points to issues in massive-star models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast—Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosol, gas, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in the circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration along the coast in winter, and minima in summer, suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. The performance of four climate models are assessed against satellite cloud retrievals. The models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition.Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

David Painemal↗

NASA NTRS1991

Implications of C2H photochemistry on the modeling of C2 distributions in comets

Laboratory studies of the secondary photolysis of the C2H radical are summarized and used to explain some discrepancies between models of C2 emission in comets. These studies show that several states of the C2 radicals produced in the photolysis of C2H2 at 193 nm have bimodal rotational distributions when plotted as a Boltzmann diagram. They also establish that the C2 radicals are formed with varying degrees of vibrational excitation, so that if they are formed in a similar manner in comets, the C2 radicals must start out with this initial vibrational excitation.

Jackson, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Refined Use of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Snapshots to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions in the GOCART Model

Simulations of biomass burning (BB) emissions in global chemistry and aerosol transport models depend on external inventories, which provide location and strength of burning aerosol sources. Our previous work (Petrenko et al., 2012) shows that satellite snapshots of aerosol optical depth (AOD) near the emitted smoke plume can be used to constrain model-simulated AOD, and effectively, the assumed source strength. We now refine the satellite-snapshot method and investigate applying simple multiplicative emission correction factors for the widely used Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFEDv3) emission inventory can achieve regional-scale consistency between MODIS AOD snapshots and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The model and satellite AOD are compared over a set of more than 900 BB cases observed by the MODIS instrument during the 2004, and 2006-2008 biomass burning seasons. The AOD comparison presented here shows that regional discrepancies between the model and satellite are diverse around the globe yet quite consistent within most ecosystems. Additional analysis of including small fire emission correction shows the complimentary nature of correcting for source strength and adding missing sources, and also indicates that in some regions other factors may be significant in explaining model-satellite discrepancies. This work sets the stage for a larger intercomparison within the Aerosol Inter-comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) multi-model biomass burning experiment. We discuss here some of the other possible factors affecting the remaining discrepancies between model simulations and observations, but await comparisons with other AeroCom models to draw further conclusions.

aerosol optical depth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improvements in Simulating a Mach 0.80 Transonic Truss-Braced Wing Configuration using the Spalart-Allmaras and k-ω SST Turbulence

Teams from the NASA Ames Research Centers (ARC) and Langley Research Center (LaRC) have been working on validating their computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results for the Boeing Mach 0.80 Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) configuration. Experimental data used for the validation were gathered from a test conducted of a 4.5% scale Mach 0.80 TTBW model in the NASA Ames Research Center 11-by 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. The CFD simulations were initially run with both LAVA and USM3D Mixed Element solvers utilizing the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. A discrepancy was observed between CFD and experimental loads and moments ranging on average from 0.047 to 0.063 for lift coefficient, 16.5 to 27 in drag counts, and -0.02 to -0.032 for pitching moment, varying with the solver used. With introducing the refactored version of LAVA these values dropped to 0.034 to 0.047 for lift coefficient, 7.74 to 16.5 in drag counts, and lastly -0.012 to -0.02 for pitching moment. Based on findings from Boeing, who observed an improved comparison to experimental data when using the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model, the NASA teams conducted simulations with SST to investigate turbulence modeling sensitivities. OVERFLOW and USM3D V6 solvers were used for the comparison of SST and SA simulations. CFD results using the SST turbulence model demonstrate an improvement in matching with experimental CL values, reducing the discrepancies seen by 0.021-0.055 (62-93% reduction in discrepancy respective to the OVERFLOW and USM3D V6). The SST model has varying effects on CD, based on the solver / grid paradigm; for USM3D this prediction is only improved at higher angles of attack (above the cruise design point) resulting in a reduced discrepancy of 8.8–25 drag counts However, at the mid-to-low angles of attack, SST increases the CD discrepancy by 4-55 counts, increasing at lower angles of attack. For OVERFLOW this discrepancy only exists at the low angles of attack and maxes out at 10 counts of drag. Above α = 1.5° OVERFLOW SST reduces discrepancy by 9.3 drag counts on average.

AATT↗

NASA NTRS1976

USB environment measurements based on full-scale static engine ground tests

Flow turning parameters, static pressures, surface temperatures, surface fluctuating pressures and acceleration levels were measured in the environment of a full-scale upper surface blowing (USB) propulsive-lift test configuration. The test components included a flightworthy CF6-50D engine, nacelle and USB flap assembly utilized in conjunction with ground verification testing of the USAF YC-14 Advanced Medium STOL Transport propulsion system. Results, based on a preliminary analysis of the data, generally show reasonable agreement with predicted levels based on model data. However, additional detailed analysis is required to confirm the preliminary evaluation, to help delineate certain discrepancies with model data and to establish a basis for future flight test comparisons.

Sussman, M. B.↗

NASA NTRS1976

USB environment measurements based on full-scale static engine ground tests

Flow turning parameters, static pressures, surface temperatures, surface fluctuating pressures and acceleration levels were measured in the environment of a full-scale upper surface blowing (USB) propulsive lift test configuration. The test components included a flightworthy CF6-50D engine, nacelle, and USB flap assembly utilized in conjunction with ground verification testing of the USAF YC-14 Advanced Medium STOL Transport propulsion system. Results, based on a preliminary analysis of the data, generally show reasonable agreement with predicted levels based on model data. However, additional detailed analysis is required to confirm the preliminary evaluation, to help delineate certain discrepancies with model data, and to establish a basis for future flight test comparisons.

Sussman, M. B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A theoretical index for understanding distinct land relative humidity trends in observations, reanalyses, and models

Land surface relative humidity (RH) is a key variable in the coupled land–atmosphere system that profoundly influences terrestrial hydroclimate and ecosystems. Yet historical changes in land RH are not well understood due to limited observations, biased reanalyses, and the lack of a framework for interpreting RH changes under multiple influencing factors. Here, we show that the spatiotemporal variability of land RH and its distinct historical trends among observations, reanalyses, and Earth system models are captured by a simple index based on the ratio of precipitation (P) to a modified potential evapotranspiration formulated independently of RH (PET°). The index provides a physical calibration of biased land RH in reanalyses and a quantitative framework for interpreting land RH changes. Over 1973–2024, land RH has decreased substantially, owing to the intrinsic rise in PET° with temperature and little increase in land precipitation. Reanalyses overestimate the observed RH decrease, consistent with exaggerated surface warming and precipitation decline. The index captures this coherent bias and enables a calibration using observed precipitation and temperature. Models simulate a wide range of land RH trends, but nearly all runs underrepresent the historical drying. The index captures the model spread and discrepancy and attributes them to contributions of precipitation and PET°. Weaker land RH decreases in models arise mainly from weaker subtropical precipitation declines, linked to muted intensification of subtropical highs and biased subtropical climatology. The model–observation discrepancy is unlikely explained by internal variability, implying model underestimation of forced RH decrease and a drier land future than current projections.

Earth system models↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation and modeling uncertainty impact evaluation in neutronics core simulation

Uncertainty analysis is a critical requirement in reactor simulation as it is used to quantify the reliability of best-estimate calculation. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis should characterize all sources of uncertainties in a computationally-feasible and scientifically-defendable manner. Here we employ a well-established reduced order modeling (ROM) based uncertainty quantification methodology to propagate uncertainties throughout neutronic calculations. ROM relies on recent advances in randomized data mining techniques applied to large data streams. In our proposed implementation, the nuclear data uncertainties are first propagated from multi-group level through lattice physics calculation to generate few-group parameter uncertainties, described using a vector of mean values and a covariance matrix. Employing an ROM-based compression of the covariance matrix, the few-group uncertainties are then propagated through downstream core simulation in a computationally efficient manner. This straightforward approach, albeit efficient as compared to brute force forward and/or adjoint-based methods, often employs a number of assumptions that have been unquestioned in the literature of neutronic uncertainty analysis. This manuscript argues that these assumptions could introduce another source of uncertainty referred to as modeling uncertainties, whose magnitude needs to be quantified in tandem with nuclear data uncertainties. Thus, our primary goal is to explore the interactions between these two uncertainty sources in order to assess whether modeling uncertainties have an impact on parameter uncertainties. To explore this endeavor, the impact of a number of modeling assumptions on core attributes uncertainties is quantified. The study employs a CANDU reactor model, with Serpent and NEWT as lattice physics solvers and NESTLE-C as core simulator. The modeling assumptions investigated include those related with the uncertainty propagation method employed, e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic, the few-group energy structure employed to represent the cross-sections, the resonance treatment in lattice physics calculation, the reference values for the cross-section, and the number of samples employed to render ROM compression. Results indicate that some of the modeling assumptions could have a non-negligible impact on the core responses propagated uncertainties, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to combine parameter and modeling uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

FY-25 Progress on Computational Modeling of the Water Based NSTF

This report summarizes the system level modeling using RELAP5-3D of the Natural Convection Shutdown Heat Removal Test Facility (NSTF) completed in FY25. This year’s work focuses on a new tank configuration where the inlet of the tank was lowered in elevation by 45”. The stability boundaries of the NSTF are thoroughly studied and stability maps are constructed based on the stability and the oscillation patterns of the system. Five distinct operational modes are identified, namely single-phase liquid, uniform double peak oscillations, uniform sinusoidal oscillations, stable two-phase flow, and non-uniform oscillations. Next, the riser inlet throttling case of experimental test Run-104 is simulated with the RELAP5 model where good agreement is obtained between the model and the experimental data. The simulation also highlights the effects of backflow of water from the tank to the upper region of the chimney. Additionally, the decay heat removal test of Run-99 is simulated with the RELAP5 model. Comparison is carried out between this run and a similar run with the mid-tank inlet of Run-74 performed in FY22. With the lower tank inlet, the RELAP5 model is able to predict the experimental data more accurately than the previous mid tank inlet configuration. The discrepancy in model prediction accuracy highlights the non-symmetrical spatial effects in the tank that would otherwise be more easily captured with higher fidelity models. Lastly, two exploratory studies are conducted to investigate the behaviors of the NSTF when 1) heating is provided to the downcomer and 2) a bypass channel is added between the horizontal chimney section to the downcomer.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1981

A review of flight-to-wind tunnel drag correlation

Comparisons are made of wind-tunnel-model and flight drag data for various configurations representing aircraft from the mid-1940s to the 1970s. Discrepancies between model and flight data such as Reynolds number effects, wall interference, and aeroelastic problems are discussed. String support effects and the inability of models to simulate surface deflections for longitudinal trim are also studied. A wind tunnel-to-flight correlation of turbulent friction drag confirms the incompressible Karman-Schoenherr variation of turbulent skin friction with Reynolds number and the T' method for accounting compressibility effects. NASA tested 10 deg cone research indicates that model tests which are affected by tunnel noise may require the lower disturbance level environment available in flight, and it is concluded that new cryogenic facilities will improve the fidelity of model simulations of full-scale flight flow phenomena.

Saltzman, E. J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Assessment of Kinetic Models for Ammonia Flame Extinction

The growing interest in using ammonia as a carbon-neutral replacement fuel has prompted numerous recent research efforts towards understanding fundamental combustion characteristics and chemical kinetics of ammonia oxidation. Despite these recent efforts, there remains a large deficiency in extinction limit data for ammonia flames, particularly under elevated pressure and temperature conditions relevant to gas turbines. Even the literature reaction mechanisms developed specifically for ammonia have been untested under gas turbine relevant conditions, and existing kinetic models have shown large variations in laminar flame speed, extinction strain rate, and speciation predictions for NH3–H2 mixtures at ambient conditions. Recent work by Thomas and co-workers, for example, compared different ammonia kinetic models in the literature for predicting their extinction strain rate measurements for non-premixed NH3-H2 counterflow flames, and again have highlighted the discrepancies in model predictions. Here, our work has undertaken to further highlight important reaction pathways for ammonia oxidation that may be responsible for these discrepancies for extinction strain rate predictions, as well as elucidate sensitive reaction steps with large uncertainties that require further attention. This work points to a need for an improved understanding of ammonia combustion chemistry as well as new datasets at elevated pressure and temperature conditions to better constrain rate expressions for key reaction steps.

ammonia, flame, combustion, kinetic, kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reproducible benchmark for the SNAP 8 experimental reactor at dry conditions

Here, this work provides fully reproducible benchmark models of the Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP) 8 Experimental Reactor. Validation benchmarks of the criticality configuration experiments under dry conditions with no coolant are presented. In addition, relevant reactivity worth experiments, and measurement of power distributions are validated and presented here. Discrepancies between modeled and experimental results are at most 110 pcm for fuel and poison worths, and critical configurations that do not manipulate control elements are within 50 pcm. Larger discrepancies found in reflector element worth experiments are due to experimental methodology which was noted as being simplified due to limited calculational capabilities at the time, while discrepancy in the control element manipulated critical configuration is due the absence of structural components for modeling simplification. Power distributions closely follow what was observed in experiment with expected peaking in reflecting elements. All models are well documented with cited references describing and justifying assumptions, simplifications, and adjustments to reproduce the models with any nuclear safety codes; model inputs and outputs are stored in the snapReactors GitHub repository.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation‐model intercomparison

Abstract Tropical forests are an important part of global water and energy cycles, but the mechanisms that drive seasonality of their land‐atmosphere exchanges have proven challenging to capture in models. Here, we (1) report the seasonality of fluxes of latent heat (LE), sensible heat ( H ), and outgoing short and longwave radiation at four diverse tropical forest sites across Amazonia—along the equator from the Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forests in the eastern Amazon to a forest near Manaus, and from the equatorial zone to the southern forest in Reserva Jaru; (2) investigate how vegetation and climate influence these fluxes; and (3) evaluate land surface model performance by comparing simulations to observations. We found that previously identified failure of models to capture observed dry‐season increases in evapotranspiration (ET) was associated with model overestimations of (1) magnitude and seasonality of Bowen ratios (relative to aseasonal observations in which sensible was only 20%–30% of the latent heat flux) indicating model exaggerated water limitation, (2) canopy emissivity and reflectance (albedo was only 10%–15% of incoming solar radiation, compared to 0.15%–0.22% simulated), and (3) vegetation temperatures (due to underestimation of dry‐season ET and associated cooling). These partially compensating model‐observation discrepancies (e.g., higher temperatures expected from excess Bowen ratios were partially ameliorated by brighter leaves and more interception/evaporation) significantly biased seasonal model estimates of net radiation ( R n ), the key driver of water and energy fluxes (LE ~ 0.6 R n and H ~ 0.15 R n ), though these biases varied among sites and models. A better representation of energy‐related parameters associated with dynamic phenology (e.g., leaf optical properties, canopy interception, and skin temperature) could improve simulations and benchmarking of current vegetation–atmosphere exchange and reduce uncertainty of regional and global biogeochemical models.

Restrepo‐Coupe, Natalia↗