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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.

Mauna Loa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utility of near‐surface phenology in estimating productivity and evapotranspiration across diverse ecosystems

Abstract Agroecosystems, which include row crops, pasture, and grass and shrub grazing lands, are sensitive to changes in management, weather, and genetics. To better understand how these systems are responding to changes, we need to improve monitoring and modeling carbon and water dynamics. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are commonly used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), but these empirical relationships are often location and crop specific. There is a need to evaluate if VIs can be effective and, more general, predictors of ecosystem processes through time and across different agroecosystems. Near‐surface photographic (red‐green‐blue) images from PhenoCam can be used to calculate the VI green chromatic coordinate (G CC ) and offer a pathway to improve understanding of field‐scale relationships between VIs and GPP and ET. We synthesized observations spanning 76 site‐years across 15 agroecosystem sites with PhenoCam G CC and GPP or ET estimates from eddy covariance (EC) to quantify interannual variability (IAV) in the relationship between GPP and ET and G CC across. We uncovered a high degree of variability in the strength and slopes of the G CC ∼ GPP and ET relationships (R 2 = 0.1 ‐ 0.9) within and across production systems. Overall, G CC is a better predictor of GPP than ET (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.54, respectively), performing best in croplands (R 2 = 0.91). Shrub‐dominated systems exhibit the lowest predictive power of G CC for GPP and ET but have less IAV in slope. We propose that PhenoCam estimates of G CC could provide an alternative approach for predictions of ecosystem processes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Stressors in Mobile Bay

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in Mobile Bay. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the Bay. Theses results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout Mobile Bay. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, E FOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for a total anthropogenic CO 2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO 2 ). Also, for 2021, G ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 , with a B IM of −0.6 GtC yr −1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Pierre Friedlingstein↗
DOE OSTI2024

Attributing human mortality from fire PM 2.5 to climate change

Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here, in this study, we used three well-tested fire-vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) emissions to climate change. Of the 46401 (1960s) –to 98748 (2010s) annual fire PM 2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) –to 12566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia, and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity, and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, like South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Topographic Change Detection Using Full-Waveform Imaging Lidar

The capability of wide-footprint (i.e. 10m or greater), full-waveform laser altimeters to penetrate beneath dense vegetation to directly measure the sub-canopy topography provides us with a unique capability for sensing topographic change in the presence of vegetation. We evaluate the feasibility of using a geolocated laser altimeter return waveform instead of individual elevation measurements to measure vertical elevation change within a laser footprint. The method, dubbed the return pulse correlation method, maximizes the shape similarity of nea-coincident, vertically- geolocated laser return waveforms from two observation epochs as they are vertically-shifted relative to each other. First, we evaluate the inherent accuracy of the pulse correlation method using models and simulations under "bare-Earth" conditions. We then analyze the effects of vegetation and vegetation growth on the change detection capability. The use of this method, combined with order of magnitude improvements to laser altimeter swath widths (from 1 km to 10 km) and the potential for a future spaceborne imaging lidar, may provide subcentimeter level relative change detection beneath vegetation to complement IFSAR's ability to make similar measurements in low or vegetation-free conditions.

Blair, Bryan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Influence of regional anthropogenic changes over Nile region on the climate system during the late Holocene (~2500 years before present)

The societal impacts of climate change during the late Holocene leads to regional anthropogenic changes over the Nile region floodplain and could have acted in tandem with natural factors like major volcanic eruptions on the regional climate system to magnify the local climatic impacts. This study aims to explore and investigate the sensitivity of climatic changes to the regional anthropogenic changes due to various factors over the Nile river floodplains during the late-Holocene (2.5K years before present). The GISS ModelE Earth system model will be used to simulate the various scenarios of regional increasing/decreasing river fraction, changes in vegetation type and cover, along with changes in land surface type against the no-changes scenario in absence of volcanic eruptions. The spatial coverage of the Nile river basin is estimated using the GIS shapefile based on elevation data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) at 3 Arc-seconds (approx. 90-meter) horizontal resolution. The extent of flooding in the model grid (2.0°x2.5° in latitude and longitude) is estimated using the existing high-resolution (0.125°x0.125°) gridded topographic elevation information and mapped over the Nile river floodplains. This study also focuses on evaluating the NASA GISS ModelE for resolving the climate feedbacks and response on climate system due to anthropogenic changes and volcanic eruptions. It is also aimed to analyze and quantify the impact of various anthropogenic factors over the African monsoon system and rainfall over the region, which feeds the Nile River.

Anthropogenic changes↗
DOE OSTI2023

How deep should we go to understand roots at the top of the world?

Harsh environmental conditions and the short summers of northern, high-latitude biomes impose unique constraints on the plants that live in the arctic tundra and the boreal forest. To escape the harsh aboveground environment, plants in these habitats often allocate a large portion of their biomass belowground to facilitate nutrient acquisition. In turn, the proximity of living plant roots to vast stores of sequestered soil carbon in these biomes means that shifts in rooting depth distribution and the size of the root–soil interface could significantly contribute to ongoing climate change. Indeed, plant ‘priming’ of rhizosphere decomposition via root exudation, particularly from shallowly distributed roots, can lead to losses of carbon from tundra soils. While we have a hard-won understanding of the distribution of plant communities across the arctic tundra and the boreal forest from direct field observations scaled to the landscape level using climate-informed mapping techniques (i.e. the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM); Walker et al. , 2005), these vegetation maps are only the tip of the iceberg (Iversen et al. , 2015). Root form and function remain hidden beneath the land surface. In an article recently published in New Phytologist , Blume-Werry et al. (2023, 10.1111/nph.18998) asked whether rooting depth distribution, and ensuing carbon emissions, could be inferred from commonly used vegetation mapping classifications across the pan-Arctic. An important question to guide our understanding, mapping, and prediction of belowground characteristics and ecosystem feedbacks at the top of the world. Unfortunately, they found that the answer was ‘not quite’. While rooting depth distribution varied demonstrably, in turn causing substantial changes in modeled carbon emissions via rhizosphere ‘priming’, variation across rooting depth profiles did not correspond with vegetation mapping classes. If we are unable to predict belowground rooting depth distributions across large spatial scales by leveraging aboveground vegetation community distributions, how then should belowground researchers proceed?

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Continental-Scale Estimate of Soil Organic Carbon Change at NEON Sites and Their Environmental and Edaphic Controls

Current carbon cycle models focus on the effects of climate and land-use change on primary productivity and microbial-mineral dependent carbon turnover in the topsoil, while less attention has been paid to vertical soil processes and soil-dependent response to land-use change along the profile. In this study, a spatial-temporal analysis was used to estimate soil organic carbon (SOC) change in topsoil/A horizon and subsoil/B horizon at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites, USA over 30 years. To separate the effects of land-use, environmental, and edaphic factors on SOC change, space-for-time substitution was used in combination with the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm and Structural Equation Modeling. Results showed that (a) under natural vegetation, Spodosols and Inceptisols found in the eastern NEON sites had substantial topsoil SOC accumulation (+0.4 to +1.2 Mg C ha –1 year –1 ), while Inceptisols and Andisols in the west had a comparable magnitude of topsoil SOC loss (–0.5 to –1.8 Mg C ha –1 year –1 ); (b) Mollisols and Alfisols in the Central Plains sites were susceptible to significant SOC loss under farming and grazing; (c) Runoff/erosion and leaching potential, vertical translocation, and mineral sorption were the most important factors controlling SOC variation across the NEON sites. Our work could be used to parameterize ecosystem models simulating SOC change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Historical (1700–2012) Global Multi-Model Estimates of the Fire Emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP)

Fire emissions are critical for carbon and nutrient cycles, climate, and air quality. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) with interactive fire modeling provide important estimates for long-term and large-scale changes of fire emissions. Here we present the first multi-model estimates of global gridded historical fire emissions for 1700-2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols. The dataset is based on simulations of nine DGVMs with different state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), using the same and standardized protocols and forcing data, and the most up-to-date fire emission factor table from field and laboratory studies over various land cover types. We evaluate the simulations of present-day fire emissions by comparing them with satellite-based products. Evaluation results show that most DGVMs simulate present-day global fire emission totals within the range of satellite-based products, and can capture the high emissions over the tropical savannas, low emissions over the arid and sparsely vegetated regions, and the main features of seasonality. However, most of the models fail to simulate the interannual variability, partly due to a lack of modeling peat fires and tropical deforestation fires. Historically, all models show only a weak trend in global fire emissions before ~1850s, consistent with multi-source merged historical reconstructions. The long-term trends among DGVMs are quite different for the 20th century, with some models showing an increase and others a decrease in fire emissions, mainly as a result of the discrepancy in their simulated responses to human population density change and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Our study provides a basic dataset for developing regional and global multi-source merged historical reconstructions and merging methods, and analyzing historical changes of fire emissions and their uncertainties as well as their role in the Earth system. It also highlights the importance of accurately modeling the responses of fire emissions to LULCC and population density change in reducing uncertainties in historical reconstructions of fire emissions and providing more reliable future projections.

Li, Fang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost

Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst represents an accelerating climate feedback, but uncertainties remain about how ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation interact to shape landscape change and carbon fluxes. We extended the process-based model ecosys to simulate thermokarst dynamics in laterally coupled 2D transects at a well-characterized boreal peatland site in Canada’s Northwest Territories. After benchmarking against site observations, we varied ground ice content and hydrologic boundary conditions across ranges typical near the southern permafrost limit. Simulations revealed distinct degradation regimes governed by the elevation difference between the frost table and the external water table. Rates of lateral retreat, the thaw-driven encroachment of wetlands into adjacent plateaus, ranged from 0 to >2 m yr −1 under identical weather forcing, consistent with observations and highlighting the strong role of WT and ground ice. Simulated vegetation dynamics indicate that black spruce mortality cannot be explained by anoxia alone, pointing to additional stressors such as root damage, pathogens, or physical destabilization. Despite large hydrologic shifts, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange remained a slight sink after collapse, while methane (CH 4 ) emissions rose by one to two orders of magnitude. As a result, lateral retreat substantially increases the greenhouse warming potential of permafrost peatlands (1.7 million km 2 in area), with simulated emissions of 0.1–10 Mt CO 2 -eq decade −1 depending on hydrology and retreat rates. These results underscore the need to account for both ground ice and hydrologic dynamics when assessing thermokarst-driven climate feedbacks.

carbon cycling↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Game-Theoretic Modeling of Vegetation Composition, Structure, and Dynamics: Physical Constraints, Fundamental Processes, and Emergent Properties

Vegetation structural and compositional dynamics emerge from plant physiological and demographic processes, individual-based competition, vegetation-soil feedbacks, and environmental variations and disturbance events. Predicting long-term changes in vegetation requires scaling plant individual behavior to large scale ecosystem processes. In this presentation, we summarize our studies in the modeling of vegetation demographic processes, competitively dominant plant traits, plant hydraulic processes, and stochastic disturbance effects on ecosystems, and illustrate the roles of the underlying ecological processes and eco-evolutionary optimization in vegetation modeling. With the case studies of evolutionarily stable strategy of allocation, leaf traits, and plant hydraulic processes, we show how the ecosystem processes and vegetation dynamics are determined by the individual-based plant competition and variations of soil and climate conditions. The predictions of ecosystem carbon dynamics can be greatly different with those from the traditional “single-tree” models. We also discuss the tradeoffs of plant traits and evolutionarily optimal strategies in the modeling of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in an Earth system model.

vegetation models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Science Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but rather modeling complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple sources of data and domains. For instance, Evapotranspiration (ET) and Leaf Area Indexes (LAI) are two critical components in DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, current ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFT), which fail to capture the fine-scale variations due to change in vegetation type across the globe. Within this context and in light of the data-model integration challenges highlighted in the EESSD Strategic Plan, the new era of AI model development for geosciences calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with estimations of parameters such as PFT and LAI in an efficient, interpretable, and easy-to-operate manner.

Ambrozio Dias, Philipe↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessing the effects of landcover and land use change on wildfire exposure and risk to communities and olive orchards in Mediterranean landscapes

A growing concern in the Mediterranean region is that recent landcover and land use change is increasing wildfire risk, or the exposure and impacts of wildfire to valued resources. However, the magnitude of these effects is not well understood given the widely diverse landscapes of communities, natural vegetation, and agricultural land. In this study, we use wildfire simulation modeling to assess how landcover and land use changes in three areas of southern Greece have affected exposure of- and fire risk to- communities and economically important permanent agriculture such as Olea europaea (European olive) orchards. We mapped agricultural and wildland fuel change from 2000 to 2020 and simulated fuel scenarios in agricultural land to assess the impacts of agricultural land practices, such as understory clearing, on fire risk. We show that wildfire exposure and risk to communities and permanent agriculture has increased in some areas due to natural fuel densification and decreased in other areas, mainly due to agricultural land expansion. These results highlight that wildfire exposure and risk are driven by local conditions including density and location of communities, spatial arrangement of natural fuels and agricultural land, and agricultural land use practices. Human settlement burn probability and modeled permanent crop loss increased with greater unmaintained agricultural area in all study areas, emphasizing the importance of agricultural land maintenance practices, such as understory clearing, to reduce fuel continuity and fire intensity. Ultimately, quantitative fire risk analyses such as this study provide a useful framework to identify areas of concern where either fuel mitigation or landowner incentives to maintain agricultural land in a less-burnable condition could be applied.

Aaron M Sparks↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the numerical solution approach of a plant hydrodynamic model (v0.1) on vegetation dynamics

Abstract. Numerous plant hydrodynamic models have started to be implemented in vegetation dynamics models, reflecting the central role of plant hydraulic traits in driving water, energy, and carbon cycles, as well as plant adaptation to climate change. Different numerical approximations of the governing equations of the hydrodynamic models have been documented, but the numerical accuracy of these models and its subsequent effects on the simulated vegetation function and dynamics have rarely been evaluated. Using different numerical solution methods (including implicit and explicit approaches) and vertical discrete grid resolutions, we evaluated the numerical performance of a plant hydrodynamic module in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES-HYDRO version 0.1) based on single-point and global simulations. Our simulation results showed that when near-surface vertical grid spacing is coarsened (grid size >10 cm), the model significantly overestimates aboveground biomass (AGB) in most of the temperate forest locations and underestimates AGB in the boreal forest locations, as compared to a simulation with finer vertical grid spacing. Grid coarsening has a small effect on AGB in the tropical zones of Asia and South America. In particular, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there are large and prolonged water content differences among soil layers at depths due to long dry-season duration and/or well-drained soil or when soil evaporation is a dominant fraction of evapotranspiration. Similarly, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there is lithologic discontinuity along the soil depth. This information is useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, or the training of surrogate models to design the simulations when computational cost limits the use of ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗