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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

FEED Study of Carbon Capture Inc. DAC and CarbonCure Utilization Using United States Steel's Gary Works Waste Plant

Direct Air Capture (DAC) has been proposed as a means of reducing atmospheric concentrations of CO2. While DAC has been evaluated through lab-scale, bench-scale, and small-scale pilot units, large-scale deployment has not been achieved. Feasibility studies are one tool to understand the potential design, operation, performance, and impact of commercial-scale DAC. This paper presents the results of a feasibility study for a passive DAC system deployed at >100,000 tpy scale in three different regions across the U.S. and awarded to Carbon Collect by the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL). The MechanicalTree™technology has been designed and engineered by Carbon Collect based on the concept initially developed at Arizona State University Center for Negative Carbon Emissions. It uses a tower of stacked, sorbentcontaining disks supported by a lifting mechanism, exposed to the air to capture CO2 during the adsorption phase. The disks are then lowered into a regeneration chamber for vacuum and steam regeneration to produce CO2 product during the desorption step. The modular tree design allows large installations with repeatable, mass-manufactured units connected to common utilities such as steam supply, vacuum, and CO2 processing for compression and geologic storage. The passive DAC system eliminates the equipment and energy of forced air fans by using natural air circulation to contact the sorbent with the CO2 in the air. Because of this, the performance is dependent on the wind speed in addition to the temperature and relative humidity. Performance and flow rate fluctuations were incorporated into equipment and facility design with considerations for turndown to 10% of maximum rated flow to allow operation in all seasons. The feasibility study was undertaken to evaluate the technology in different regions and climates. Three locations were selected for this study representing different climates: Alabama (hot and humid), California (hot and arid), and Wyoming (continental). For each region, the adsorption/desorption cycle was optimized including tuning the heat integration and cycle timings. The performance of individual trees was then scaled to the full facility with the same design of more than 20,000 trees common between all regions. The installations had expected average CO2 capture rates of between 330,000 and 485,000 tonnes of CO2 per year depending on the climate. The initial engineering design for the facility at each location was performed with cost and performance estimates for the trees, carbon purification and compression, and the balance of plant. To supply thermal and electrical energy for the facility, carbon-free or low-carbon power must be considered. Options for low-carbon, continuous thermal and electrical energy were considered. The best-performing option from those considered was identified to be an electrically-heated molten salt energy storage system, powered by an on-site photovoltaic field. During molten salt thermal discharge, steam is produced from heat exchange with the molten salt and used to generate power in a steam turbine as well as steam for regenerating the DAC carbon trees. The thermal and electrical supply and analysis is presented in the context of low-carbon power for carbon removal. Modelling and economics of transportation and geologic storage of the CO2 is considered and presented for each location. The results of the feasibility study are incorporated into the presented techno-economic and life-cycle assessments. This work is intended to provide an understanding of the performance, cost, and impact of capturing CO2 at the commercial scale and the impact of climate and regional siting on the considered passive DAC system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analyses of Natural Convection in the AP1000 Passive Containment Cooling System Following LBLOCA Using CFD

The AP1000 power plant has implemented multiple layers of passive safety systems to enhance reactor safety and ensure system integrity during postulated scenarios, such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and main steam line break (MSLB). Among these, the passive containment cooling system (PCCS) is a safety-related system designed to prevent the containment from exceeding the design limits of both pressure and temperature following a postulated design basis accident, by transferring heat from the steel containment vessel to the atmosphere. During LOCA, natural air convection plays a vital role in removing heat from the steel containment vessel to the atmosphere. This is integrated with the condensate film from the Passive Containment Cooling Water Storage Tank (PCCWST). Air natural convection is also the only heat removal mechanism after the dry-out of the PCCWST and during the loss of shutdown decay heat removal (LOSDHR) event. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the thermal hydraulics behavior of the containment under transient conditions to ensure its safety and integrity. This paper presents a simplified CFD/ANSYS FLUENT model developed to analyze the impact of different parameters, such as air relative humidity, air temperature, and steel containment temperature, on the natural convection capability to remove the decay heat following LOCA. The model aims to examine the thermal behavior of the containment and provides a comprehensive understanding of the system's natural convection capability during postulated accidents. The results obtained from the model can be used to improve the safety and integrity of the containment system and provide valuable insights for future research in the field.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

MARVEL Microreactor thermal hydraulic design

This paper presents an overview of the MARVEL microreactor thermal hydraulic design. MARVEL is a microreactor testbed being built at Idaho National Laboratory under the sponsorship of U.S. DOE “Microreactor” research program. MARVEL main thermal hydraulic features are recalled, with the modeling strategy and its implications for reactor safety.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Altered ß-cell Prohormone Processing and Secretion in Type 1 Diabetes

Analysis of data from clinical cohorts and more recently from human pancreatic tissue, indicate that defects in prohormone processing are an early and persistent component of type 1 diabetes pathogenesis. In this Perspectives article, we review the current state of knowledge of alterations in islet prohormone expression and processing in type 1 diabetes, and consider the clinical impact of these findings. Lingering questions, including pathologic etiologies and consequences of altered prohormone expression and secretion in type 1 diabetes, and the natural history of circulating prohormone production in health and disease are considered. Finally, key steps required to move forward in this area are outlined, including longitudinal testing of relevant clinical populations, studies that probe the genetics of altered prohormone processing, the need for combined functional and histologic testing of human pancreatic tissues, continued interrogation of the intersection between prohormone processing and autoimmunity, and optimal assays or approaches for analysis. Successful resolution of these questions may offer the potential to use altered prohormone processing as a pathogenic anchor that can be used to cluster different endotypes enveloping a large set of variables, and inform therapeutic strategies aimed at personalized intervention in the natural history of type 1 diabetes.

Islets, Insulin, Proinsulin, Islet Amyloid Polypep↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 3: Low Rank Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity

This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—pulverized coal (PC), circulating fluidized bed (CFB), and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent technical and economic approach. This is Volume 3 of a five-volume series, which comprise the following reports: Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity; Volume 2: Coal to Synthetic Natural Gas and Ammonia (Various Coal Ranks); Volume 3: Low Rank Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity; Volume 4: Bituminous Coal to Liquid Fuels; and Volume 5: Natural Gas Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation. The cost and performance of fossil fuel-based generation technologies represented in this report (and the series at large) are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. In addition to informing technology comparisons, the reference plant configurations found in this report provide perspective for regulators and policy makers. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

Significance Climate models have, on average, simulated substantially more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite data, with few simulations matching observations. It has been suggested that this discrepancy arises because climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gas increases. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends from a large ensemble of simulations performed with a single climate model span a wide range that is solely due to natural climate variability. A subset of these simulations have warming rates in accord with satellite observations. Simulations with diminished tropical tropospheric warming due to climate variability exhibit characteristic patterns of surface warming that are similar to the observed record. Our results indicate that multidecadal variability can explain current model–observational differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scale effects on core design, fuel costs, and spent fuel volume of pressurized water reactors

The desire to improve the economic competitiveness and deployment pace of nuclear energy through modularization, manufacturing, and series production had led to the development of smaller size reactors. As the standard 17x17 fuel technology is mainly maintained in the pressurized water reactors (PWRs) category, this translates into a lower number of fuel assemblies in the core and sometimes a reduced fuel height. To assess the impact of such scale change in core design on fuel cycle cost and spent fuel volume, a scoping analysis tool is developed based on infinite lattice calculations, leakage, fuel management reduced models, and levelized unit cost of electricity (LCOE) estimate. As such, cost dynamics driven by fuel specific power, burnup, core leakage, feed, cycle length, fuel assembly height as well as uranium market data are captured with consistent set of assumptions and analysis methods. A selection of 5 reactor designs representative of leading PWR developers is assessed and compared. Pursuing higher specific powers and optimal burnups are highlighted as the main fuel cost reduction drivers, nevertheless, practical limitations and opportunities must be evaluated to establish the feasibility of such enhanced fuel operation. In consequence, a detailed core design is performed using SIMULATE3 code for 5 PWR variations including natural and forced coolant circulation modes, two reactor scales, power densities of 73, 112, and 123 kW/l and higher discharge burnups. Design and optimization are performed at the lattice level, for the reflector, and at the core loading level. Satisfactory steady-state operation including power distribution, coolant operating limits, and reactivity requirements are analyzed and reported in this paper. The fuel economics of the detailed core designs confirm the scoping analysis findings. Despite the unlocked power uprates in small PWRs, the achievable burnup for a given fuel specific power requires more enrichment and shorter fuel height results in higher fabrication costs per mass of fuel, which makes scaling down core size a more expensive endeavor on the fuel cycle front. Spent fuel volumes are reported for the PWRs designed in this paper. Furthermore, these volumes are driven by the core average discharge burnup regardless of the scale in consideration. Additional cost and core performance aspects related to heavy reflector gains, fuel-reflector substitution, and disposal cost policy in the U.S. are examined.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Internal variability and forcing influence model–satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979. The causes of this difference are not fully understood and are poorly quantified. Here, we apply machine learning to relate the patterns of surface-temperature change to the forced and unforced components of tropical tropospheric warming. This approach allows us to disentangle the forced and unforced change in the model-simulated temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT). In applying the climate-model-trained machine-learning framework to observations, we estimate that external forcing has produced a tropical TMT trend of 0.25 ± 0.08 K⋅decade −1 between 1979 and 2014, but internal variability has offset this warming by 0.07 ± 0.07 K⋅decade −1 . Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble, we also find that a discontinuity in the variability of prescribed biomass-burning aerosol emissions artificially enhances simulated tropical TMT change by 0.04 K⋅decade −1 . The magnitude of this aerosol-forcing bias will vary across climate models, but since the latest generation of climate models all use the same emissions dataset, the bias may systematically enhance climate-model trends over the satellite era. Our results indicate that internal variability and forcing uncertainties largely explain differences in satellite-versus-model warming and are important considerations when evaluating climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estuarine nutrient pollution impact reduction assessment through euphotic zone avoidance/bypass considerations

The feasibility of reducing nutrient pollution impact by redirecting the effluent to depths below the euphotic zone was investigated for the deep estuarine Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea in the Pacific Northwest of America. The hypothesis tested was that the thickness of the outflow layer in deep estuaries may be greater than the euphotic zone depth, allowing a fraction of nutrients to be exported out passively through the layers immediately below. The euphotic zone depth in Puget Sound varies from 8 to 25 m while the depth of the outflow layer can reach up to ≈ 60 m. Outfall relocation strategies were tested on 99% of the anthropogenic nutrient loads currently delivered to Puget Sound. The impact was quantified using the previously established biophysical Salish Sea Model, using gross primary production and exposure to low dissolved oxygen (DO) levels as the metric (< 2 mg/L for hypoxia and < 5 mg/L for impairment). Eliminating nutrient pollution (above natural) from rivers and wastewater reduced hypoxia exposure by 8.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Relocating the outfalls to deeper waters resulted in improvements, but only in the sill-less sub-basins such as Whidbey, where hypoxia and DO impairment exposure decreased (7.9% and 6.8%, respectively). The presence of multiple sills and circulation cells in Puget Sound resulted in increased exposure and rendered nutrient bypass goals unfeasible as originally envisioned. However, an alternate nutrient export pathway was identified through bottom exchange flow out of Puget Sound via Whidbey Basin and Deception Pass. An unexpected reduction in the exchange outflow magnitude (≈ 4%) due additional (22%) freshwater discharged to the estuary bottom was also noted. The potential loss in circulation strength due to rerouting of natural surface freshwater through submerged deep-water outfalls is identified as a new unforeseen anthropogenic impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Groundwater Circulation Within the Mountain Block: Combining Flow and Transport Models With Magnetotelluric Observations to Untangle Its Nested Nature

Abstract Mountains are vital water sources for humans and ecosystems, continuously replenishing lowland aquifers through surface runoff and mountain recharge. Quantifying these fluxes and their relative importance is essential for sustainable water resource management. However, our mechanistic understanding of the flow and transport processes determining the connection between the mountain block and the basin aquifer remains limited. Traditional conceptualizations assume groundwater circulation within the mountain block is predominantly shallow. This view neglects the role of deep groundwater flowpaths significantly contributing to the water, solute, and energy budgets. Overcoming these limitations requires a holistic characterization of the multiscale nature of groundwater flow along the mountain‐to‐valley continuum. As a proof‐of‐concept, we use a coupled groundwater flow and transport model to design a series of numerical experiments that explore the role of geology, topography, and weathering rates in groundwater circulation and their resulting resistivity patterns. Our results show that accumulating solutes near stagnation zones create contrasting electrical resistivity patterns that separate local, intermediate, and regional flow cells, presenting a target for magnetotelluric observations. To demonstrate the sensitivity of magnetotelluric data to features in our resistivity models, we use the MARE2DEM electromagnetic modeling code to perform forward and inverse simulations. This study highlights the potential of magnetotelluric surveys to image the resistivity structure resulting from multiscale groundwater circulation through relatively impervious crystalline basement rocks in mountainous terrains. This capability could change our understanding of the critical zone, offering a holistic perspective that includes deep groundwater circulation and its role in conveying solutes and energy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

SPC-71260 Rev 0 MARVEL Heat Extraction Subsystem Secondary Coolant Equipment (SCE) Design/Build

A. The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor will offer experimental capabilities that are not currently available at DOE’s national laboratories. Idaho National Laboratory (INL), operated for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA) (Contractor hereafter) is procuring services for the design, analysis, fabrication, testing and delivery of a Secondary Coolant Equipment system (SCE). This specification contains the requirements for design, analysis, fabrication, testing and delivery of the SCE as described herein. The MARVEL reactor is a microreactor which uses eutectic sodium-potassium alloy (NaK) as a primary coolant. The primary coolant is circulated through four primary loops by natural convection of the coolant. In each loop is a closed well which will accommodate an intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) for extracting heat from the loop. These wells will be referred to in this specification as the “IHX wells.” It is intended for the IHX containment to also be filled with NaK. The MARVEL design team has determined that a Heat Extraction System (HES) using pumped NaK will be used to extract heat from the IHXs and deliver it to a downstream system for power generation or alternate process heat users. This Heat Extraction System will enable MARVEL operations including the ability to test, demonstrate, and address issues related to installation, startup, and operations. In addition, it will allow down-stream utilization of process heat for various uses. The objective of this specification is to develop the final design for the HES Secondary Coolant Equipment system (SCE) that will be used as the core of the HES. This system provides control of the NaK circulation between the MARVEL reactor and the subsequent process heat utilization systems. It does not include design of the Intermediate Heat Exchangers and piping inside the T-REXc pit in which the reactor is located. B. The MARVEL microreactor will be installed in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) building in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Micro-Reactor Experiment Cell (T-REXc) C. An INL Subcontractor has developed a conceptual design for this system per SPC-71145, referred to in that specification as the Process Heat Extraction System. SPC-71260 is based on the pumped NaK loop concept developed under SPC-71145. D. The SCE system design and (as option scope) fabrication shall be provided by the awardee of the subcontract (Subcontractor hereafter) pertaining to this Specification. Prior to shipment, the SCE will be fabricated, assembled, and tested at the Subcontractor’s facility. After successful completion of acceptance testing, the SCE and associated equipment will be shipped to the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) at the INL (Contractor’s Facility hereafter) to be installed by others in TREAT/T-REXc.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Symplectic Particle Tracking in a Thick Nonlinear McMillan Lens for the Fermilab Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA)

The McMillan system is a novel method to increase the tune spread of a beam without decreasing its dynamic aperture due to the systems integrability. While the ideal system is based on an infinitely thin kick, the physical design requires a thick electron lens, including a solenoid. Particle transport through the lens is difficult to simulate due to the nature of the force on the circulating beam. This paper demonstrates accurate simulation of a thick McMillan lens in a solenoid using symplectic integrators derived from Yoshidas method.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPC-71145 Rev 0 MARVEL Process Heat Extraction System Conceptual Design

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor will offer experimental capabilities that are not currently available at DOE’s national laboratories. The MARVEL reactor is a microreactor which uses eutectic sodium-potassium alloy (NaK) as a primary coolant. The primary coolant is circulated through four primary loops by natural convection of the coolant. In each loop is a closed well which will accommodate an intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) for extracting heat from the loop. These wells will be referred to in this specification as the “IHX wells”. It is intended for the IHX containment to also be filled with NaK. The MARVEL design team is currently looking for alternative means of extracting heat from these wells to be utilized in downstream applications. This Heat Utilization System (HUS) will enable MARVEL operations including the ability to test, demonstrate, and address issues related to installation, startup, and operations. In addition, it will allow down-stream utilization of process heat for various uses. Depending on the methodology used, the interface between the secondary coolant and the HUS is the Process Heat Extraction System (PHES) and is the subject of this specification.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

The influence of variability in meridional over turning on global ocean circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important global scale circulation and changes in AMOC can induce significant regional and global climate impacts. In this work, we study the stability of AMOC and its influence on global ocean circulation and the surface climate though analyzing a set of sensitivity experiments using the Community Climate System Model version 1 (CESM1). Results show that a collapsed AMOC can induce changes in global ocean circulation, such as reduced (or reversed) Bering Strait transport, weakened Indonesia throughflow and Agulhas current, but strengthened Drake Passage transport. It also changes the global wind pattern and surface temperature, such as a seesaw-like surface temperature change between Northern and Southern Hemispheres, a weakening of Indian-Australia summer monsoon, a southward shift of the Southern ocean westerlies, etc. We also found that AMOC and the Pacific deep meridional overturning circulation (or PMOC) do not form a natural seesaw under modern day climate and geography. A collapsed AMOC (active PMOC) is not stable under modern conditions if there is no additional freshwater (salt) input in the subpolar North Atlantic (Pacific), suggesting that the modern mean state of AMOC (PMOC) does not depend on local haline forcing although its variability and changes do.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Loss circulation prevention in geothermal drilling by shape memory polymer

Geothermal formations are naturally fractured with large fracture openings and networks. This can often lead to frequent drilling fluid loss events which is a major contributor to the cost and non-productive time in geothermal drilling. Development of smarter technologies and methods to tackle problem lost circulation is vital for geothermal drilling cost reduction required for geothermal energy to be recognized as a competitive alternative energy source. Mitigation of this problem and other drilling problems such as stuck pipe can minimize overall project cost. In this report, a thermoset shape memory polymer that can be activated by formation natural heat was assessed to seal near wellbore fractures in geothermal wells. The performance of the shape memory polymer (SMP) was evaluated using artificial fractures created in aluminum discs and cylindrical granite cores. Rheology and particle size distribution were considered. A novel testing setup was built for this work, which allows testing of sealing efficiency under dynamic conditions at high temperature. Analysis showed that the SMP has efficiently succeeded in forming a strong plug inside the fractures and stopped fluid loss at high sealing pressure. This smart loss circulation material can expand within the fractures to reduces non-drilling time and strengthen the wellbore in high-temperature drilling operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Circulating Tumour Cell Numbers Correlate with Platelet Count and Circulating Lymphocyte Subsets in Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer: Data from the ExPeCT Clinical Trial (CTRIAL-IE 15-21)

Interactions between circulating tumour cells (CTCs) and platelets are thought to inhibit natural killer(NK)-cell-induced lysis. We attempted to correlate CTC numbers in men with advanced prostate cancer with platelet counts and circulating lymphocyte numbers. Sixty-one ExPeCT trial participants, divided into overweight/obese and normal weight groups on the basis of a BMI ≥ 25 or <25, were randomized to participate or not in a six-month exercise programme. Blood samples at randomization, and at three and six months, were subjected to ScreenCell filtration, circulating platelet counts were obtained, and flow cytometry was performed on a subset of samples (n = 29). CTC count positively correlated with absolute total lymphocyte count (r 2 = 0.1709, p = 0.0258) and NK-cell count (r 2 = 0.49, p < 0.0001). There was also a positive correlation between platelet count and CTC count (r 2 = 0.094, p = 0.0001). Correlation was also demonstrated within the overweight/obese group (n = 123, p < 0.0001), the non-exercise group (n = 79, p = 0.001) and blood draw samples lacking platelet cloaking (n = 128, p < 0.0001). By flow cytometry, blood samples from the exercise group (n = 15) had a higher proportion of CD3+ T-lymphocytes (p = 0.0003) and lower proportions of B-lymphocytes (p = 0.0264) and NK-cells (p = 0.015) than the non-exercise group (n = 14). These findings suggest that CTCs engage in complex interactions with the coagulation cascade and innate immune system during intravascular transit, and they present an attractive target for directed therapy at a vulnerable stage in metastasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A phase-field model for hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation in porous media

Many geo-engineering applications, for example, enhanced geothermal systems, rely on hydraulic fracturing to enhance the permeability of natural formations and allow for sufficient fluid circulation. Over the past few decades, the phase-field method has grown in popularity as a valid approach to modeling hydraulic fracturing because of the ease of handling complex fracture propagation geometries. However, existing phase-field methods cannot appropriately capture nucleation of hydraulic fractures because their formulations are solely energy-based and do not explicitly take into account the strength of the material. Thus, in this work, we propose a novel phase-field formulation for hydraulic fracturing with the main goal of modeling fracture nucleation in porous media, for example, rocks. Built on the variational formulation of previous phase-field methods, the proposed model incorporates the material strength envelope for hydraulic fracture nucleation through two important steps: (i) an external driving force term, included in the damage evolution equation, that accounts for the material strength; (ii) a properly designed damage function that defines the fluid pressure contribution on the crack driving force. In conclusion, the comparison of numerical results for two-dimensional test cases with existing analytical solutions demonstrates that the proposed phase-field model can accurately model both nucleation and propagation of hydraulic fractures. Additionally, we present the simulation of hydraulic fracturing in a three-dimensional domain with various stress conditions to demonstrate the applicability of the method to realistic scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Tropical Convection Characteristics in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Accurate simulation of subseasonal tropical moist convection remains a key challenge for Earth system models. The difficulties stem from the reliance of cumulus cloud processes on model parameterizations and the need to represent the multiscale nature of interactions among clouds, radiation, moisture, circulation, and surface energy fluxes. Equatorial convection drives circulation anomalies that can affect weather patterns and extremes globally, motivating efforts to better understand and simulate these tropical disturbances. Here, a detailed review of subseasonal tropical convective behavior as simulated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) is presented, with comparison to its predecessor version 1 (E3SMv1) and reference data sets. Model structural changes to the deep convective trigger function and surface fluxes, along with parametric tuning of the cloud and microphysics schemes, together result in an improved depiction of organized tropical convection across scales. In particular, E3SMv2 exhibits a more realistic Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and low‐frequency Kelvin waves—owing to a sharper time mean equatorial meridional moisture gradient and improved convection‐circulation coupling —as well as a better depiction of MJO Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Despite these improvements, subseasonal precipitation variance continues to be strongly underestimated in E3SMv2. Use of a cloud plume model also reveals that the coupling between daily averaged tropical precipitation and lower tropospheric instability in E3SM is inconsistent with observations, a bias that could potentially impact the simulation of intraseasonal disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗