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CI-MOR Final Report: Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction

This report summarizes the research and capabilities developed as part of the project “Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction” (CI-MOR) LDRD project. CI-MOR research enables the solution of large, complex optimization models that naturally arise in national security challenges involving critical infrastructures. Specifically, CI-MOR researchers developed methods to (1) rigorously approximate complex, nonlinear optimization formulations, (2) identify alternative near-optimal solutions, (3) accelerate optimization workflows used for complex applications, and (4) rigorously integrate domain knowledge in stochastic-process models. This report provides an overview of the research done in CI-MOR, and we describe application exemplars used to illustrate CI-MOR capabilities. Furthermore, we describe the software developed by CI-MOR that researchers can leverage to analyze new applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploiting symmetries in the modeling and analysis of tires

A simple and efficient computational strategy for reducing both the size of a tire model and the cost of the analysis of tires in the presence of symmetry-breaking conditions (unsymmetry in the tire material, geometry, or loading) is presented. The strategy is based on approximating the unsymmetric response of the tire with a linear combination of symmetric and antisymmetric global approximation vectors (or modes). Details are presented for the three main elements of the computational strategy, which include: use of special three-field mixed finite-element models, use of operator splitting, and substantial reduction in the number of degrees of freedom. The proposed computational stategy is applied to three quasi-symmetric problems of tires: linear analysis of anisotropic tires, through use of semianalytic finite elements, nonlinear analysis of anisotropic tires through use of two-dimensional shell finite elements, and nonlinear analysis of orthotropic tires subjected to unsymmetric loading. Three basic types of symmetry (and their combinations) exhibited by the tire response are identified.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

Toward real-time optimization through model reduction and model discrepancy sensitivities

Optimization problems arise in a range of scenarios, from optimal control to model parameter estimation. In many applications, such as the development of digital twins, it is essential to solve these optimization problems within wall-clock-time limitations. However, this is often unattainable for complex systems, such as those modeled by nonlinear partial differential equations. One strategy for mitigating this issue is to construct a reduced-order model (ROM) that enables more rapid optimization. In particular, the use of nonintrusive ROMs—those that do not require access to the full-order model at evaluation time—is popular because they facilitate the computation of optimization solutions within the wall-clock time requirements. However, the optimization solution will be unreliable if the iterates move outside the ROM training data. This article proposes the use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy (HDSA-MD) as a computationally efficient tool to augment ROM-constrained optimization and improve its reliability. The proposed approach consists of two phases: (i) an offline phase where several full-order model evaluations are computed to train the ROM, and (ii) an online phase where a ROM-constrained optimization problem is solved, a limited number of full-order model evaluations are computed, and HDSA-MD is used to enhance the optimization solution. Numerical results are demonstrated for two examples, atmospheric contaminant control and wildfire ignition location estimation, in which a ROM is trained offline using inaccurate atmospheric data. In conclusion, the HDSA-MD update yields a significant improvement in the ROM-constrained optimization solution using only one full-order model evaluation online with corrected atmospheric data.

PDE-constrained optimization↗

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

Murphy, Patrick Charles↗

Control of Mixing and Reactive Flow Processes

The interdisciplinary field of reactive flow control is one that holds a great deal of promise for the optimization of complex phenomena occurring in many practical systems, ranging from automobile and gas turbine engines to environmental thermal destruction systems. The fundamental underpinnings of combustion control, however, require a detailed level of understanding of complex reactive flow phenomena, and, in the case of closed-loop active control, require the ability to sense (monitor) and actuate (manipulate) flow processes in a spatially distributed manner in "near real time". Hence the ultimate growth and success of the field of reactive flow control is intimately linked: 1) to advances in the understanding, simulation, and model reduction for complex reactive flows, 2) to the development of experimental diagnostic techniques, in particular, to the development of physically robust sensors, and 3) to the development of a framework or frameworks for generation of closed loop control algorithms suitable for unsteady, nonlinear reactive flow systems. The present paper seeks to outline the potential benefits and technical challenges that exist for mixing and combustion control in fundamental as well as practical systems and to identify promising research directions that could help meet these challenges.

Karagozian, A. R.↗

Vertical 2T-nC FeRAM Demonstration: BEOL Read Transistor for 4F 2 Memory Strings and Two-Terminal Selector Design for Polarization Disturb Mitigation

In this work, we demonstrate a vertical 2T-nC FeRAM with a back-end-of-line (BEOL) read transistor (T R ) for 4F 2 string and propose a selector design to mitigate polarization disturb in passive capacitor crossbar arrays. Key contributions include: 1) successful integration and operation composed of a Si MOSFET write transistor (T W ), 3-layer cylindrical ferroelectric capacitors, and Si-doped In 2 O 3 BEOL T R , demonstrating the feasibility of 4F 2 2T−nC string; 2) introducing nonlinearity into the capacitor stack to suppress ferroelectric voltage drop under inhibition biases while maintaining sufficient write voltage, reducing disturbance; 3)modeling and experimental validation of inserting a metalsemiconductor (a-Si)-metal (MSM) selector into the capacitor in mitigating the disturb, particularly achieving 9x reduction of disturb after 10 6 cycles in the V W /2 scheme.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Lagrangian methods in nonlinear plasma wave interaction

Analysis of nonlinear plasma wave interactions is usually very complicated, and simplifying mathematical approaches are highly desirable. The application of averaged-Lagrangian methods offers a considerable reduction in effort, with improved insight into synchronism and conservation (Manley-Rowe) relations. This chapter indicates how suitable Lagrangian densities have been defined, expanded, and manipulated to describe nonlinear wave-wave and wave-particle interactions in the microscopic, macroscopic and cold plasma models. Recently, further simplifications have been introduced by the use of techniques derived from Lie algebra. These and likely future developments are reviewed briefly.

Crawford, F. W.↗

Validation of a Tapered Impact Damper for Traffic Signal Structure Vibrations Using the Method of Harmonic Balance

Significant vibration amplitudes and cycles can be produced when traffic signal structures with low inherent damping are excited near one of their natural frequencies. For the mitigation of wind-induced vibrations, dynamic vibration absorbers coupled to the structure are often used. Here, this research investigates the performance of a tapered impact damper, consisting of a hanging spring-mass oscillator inside a housing capable of reducing vibration amplitude over a broader frequency range than the conventional tuned mass damper. A nonlinear, two degree-of-freedom model is developed with coordinates representing the traffic structure and the tapered impact damper. This research focuses on the application of the harmonic balance method to approximate the periodic solutions of the nonlinear equations to compute the nonlinear dynamics of the damped traffic signal structure. After designing and manufacturing a tapered impact damper, the traffic signal structure is tested with and without the damper using free vibration snapback tests. The experimental frequency and damping backbone curves are used to validate the analytical model, and the effectiveness of the damper is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗

Micromechanics Fatigue Damage Analysis Modeling for Fabric Reinforced Ceramic Matrix Composites

A micromechanics analysis modeling method was developed to analyze the damage progression and fatigue failure of fabric reinforced composite structures, especially for the brittle ceramic matrix material composites. A repeating unit cell concept of fabric reinforced composites was used to represent the global composite structure. The thermal and mechanical properties of the repeating unit cell were considered as the same as those of the global composite structure. The three-phase micromechanics, the shear-lag, and the continuum fracture mechanics models were integrated with a statistical model in the repeating unit cell to predict the progressive damages and fatigue life of the composite structures. The global structure failure was defined as the loss of loading capability of the repeating unit cell, which depends on the stiffness reduction due to material slice failures and nonlinear material properties in the repeating unit cell. The present methodology is demonstrated with the analysis results evaluated through the experimental test performed with carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix plain weave composite specimens.

Min, J. B.↗

Modelling chaotic vibrations using NASTRAN

Due to the unavailability and, later, prohibitive cost of the computational power required, many phenomena in nonlinear dynamic systems have in the past been addressed in terms of linear systems. Linear systems respond to periodic inputs with periodic outputs, and may be characterized in the time domain or in the frequency domain as convenient. Reduction to the frequency domain is frequently desireable to reduce the amount of computation required for solution. Nonlinear systems are only soluble in the time domain, and may exhibit a time history which is extremely sensitive to initial conditions. Such systems are termed chaotic. Dynamic buckling, aeroelasticity, fatigue analysis, control systems and electromechanical actuators are among the areas where chaotic vibrations have been observed. Direct transient analysis over a long time period presents a ready means of simulating the behavior of self-excited or externally excited nonlinear systems for a range of experimental parameters, either to characterize chaotic behavior for development of load spectra, or to define its envelope and preclude its occurrence.

Sheerer, T. J.↗

A NASTRAN/TREETOPS solution to a flexible, multi-body dynamics and controls problem on a UNIX workstation

Demands for nonlinear time history simulations of large, flexible multibody dynamic systems has created a need for efficient interfaces between finite-element modeling programs and time-history simulations. One such interface, TREEFLX, an interface between NASTRAN and TREETOPS, a nonlinear dynamics and controls time history simulation for multibody structures, is presented and demonstrated via example using the proposed Space Station Mobile Remote Manipulator System (MRMS). The ability to run all three programs (NASTRAN, TREEFLX and TREETOPS), in addition to other programs used for controller design and model reduction (such as DMATLAB and TREESEL, both described), under a UNIX Workstation environment demonstrates the flexibility engineers now have in designing, developing and testing control systems for dynamically complex systems.

Benavente, Javier E.↗

Theoretical-Numerical Study of Feasibility of Use of Winglets on Low Aspect Ration Wings at Subsonic and Transonic Mach Numbers to Reduce Drag

A numerical design study was conducted to assess the drag reduction potential of winglets installed on a series of low aspect ratio wings at a design point of M=0.8, C sub L=0.3. Wing-winglet and wing-alone design geometries were obtained for wings of aspect ratios between 1.75 and 2.67, having leading edge sweep angles between 45 and 60 deg. Winglet length was fixed at 15% of wing semispan. To assess the relative performance between wing-winglet and wing-alone configurations, the PPW nonlinear extended small disturbance potential flow code was utilized. This model has proven to yield plausible transonic flow field simulations for the series of low aspect ratio configurations selected. Predicted decreases in pressure drag coefficient for the wing-winglet configurations relative to the corresponding wing-alone planform are about 15% at the design point. Predicted decreases in wing-winglet total drag coefficient are about 12%, relative to the corresponding wing-alone design. Longer winglets (25% of the wing semispan) yielded decreases in the pressure drag of up to 22% and total drag of up to 16.4%. These predicted drag coefficient reductions are comparable to reductions already demonstrated by actual winglet designs installed on higher aspect ratio transport type aircraft.

Kuhlman, John M.↗

Impact of dynamic Jahn-Teller effect on magnetic excitations, lattice vibration, and thermal conductivity in U 𝑥 ⁢T⁢h 1−𝑥 ⁡O 2 system

Vibrational and magnetic properties of single-crystal uranium-thorium dioxide (U 𝑥 ⁢T⁢h 1−𝑥⁡ O 2 ) with a full range of 0 < 𝑥 < 1 are investigated. Thorium dioxide is a diamagnet whose thermal properties are governed by lattice vibration. The addition of paramagnetic uranium ions leads to the emergence of magnetic effects that alter the thermophysical properties noticeably even at room temperature. The interaction of phonons with magnetic moments of uranium 5⁢𝑓 electrons mediated by magnetoelastic coupling results in an anomalous low-temperature thermal conductivity profile. Analysis of the magnetic susceptibility measurements indicates a departure from the Curie-Weiss relationship characteristic of noninteracting paramagnetic ions, previously associated with the dynamic Jahn-Teller (DJT) effect characterized by coupling between spin and the oxygen sublattice. The T 2⁢g Raman peak position follows a nonlinear trend as a function of uranium concentration and hints that these Raman active optical modes play a role in either DJT or in mediating quadrupole-quadrupole interactions. A first-principle-based thermal transport model is implemented to explain the low-temperature transport measurements, where the anomalous reduction is attributed to phonon-spin resonant scattering. The interplay between spins and phonons is also captured using high-resolution inelastic x-ray scattering (IXS) measurements of phonon linewidths. Our results provide insights into the phonon interactions with the magnetic excitations governing DJT effect and impacting the low-temperature thermal transport processes in this material system. Furthermore, these findings have implications for understanding low-temperature thermal transport and magnetic properties in advanced materials for information processing and energy applications.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

On the Numerical Formulation of Parametric Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) Uncertainty Models for Multivariate Matrix Polynomial Problems

Robust control system analysis and design is based on an uncertainty description, called a linear fractional transformation (LFT), which separates the uncertain (or varying) part of the system from the nominal system. These models are also useful in the design of gain-scheduled control systems based on Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) methods. Low-order LFT models are difficult to form for problems involving nonlinear parameter variations. This paper presents a numerical computational method for constructing and LFT model for a given LPV model. The method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, and uses simple matrix computations to obtain an exact low-order LFT representation of the given LPV system without the use of model reduction. Although the method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, multivariate rational problems can also be solved using this method by reformulating the rational problem into a polynomial form.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Atmospheric chlorine and stratospheric ozone nonlinearities and trend detection

It is pointed out that at the present time there is no experimental means to detect the current reduction of stratospheric ozone by chlorine from fluorocarbons relative to its unperturbed amount. The reason for this situation is related to the small changes involved and several possible masking effects. As a substitute for experimental detection, there have been many stratospheric modeling efforts. The history of these efforts has been reviewed by Cicerone et al. (1983). Results obtained by Cicerone et al. imply that the successful detection of net ozone destruction by chlorine would be delayed many years from the present time. The present paper is concerned with a reinvestigation of the photochemical problem discussed by Cicerone et al. on the basis of an independent one-dimensional model reported by Herman (1979). It is concluded that by the year 2020 the total ozone decrease due to ClX should be about 3 percent (2.5 percent with increasing methane). Such a change may already pose environmental problems.

Herman, J. R.↗

The role of damage-softened material behavior in the fracture of composites and adhesives

Failure mechanisms of materials under very high strains experienced at and ahead of the crack tip such as formation, growth, and interaction of microvoids in ductile materials, microcracks in brittle solids or crazes in polymers and adhesives are represented by one-dimensional, nonlinear stress-strain relations possessing different ways by which the material loses capacity to carry load up to fracture or total separation. A double cantilever beam (DCB) type specimen is considered. The nonlinear material is confined to a thin strip between the two elastic beams loaded by a wedge. The problem is first modeled as a beam on a nonlinear foundation. The pertinent equation is solved numerically as a two-point boundary value problem for both the stationary and the quasi-stationay propagating crack. A finite element model is then used to model the problem in more detail in order to assess the adequacy of the beam model for the reduction of experimental data to determine in-situ properties of the thin interlayer.

Ungsuwarungsri, T.↗

Arcjet space thrusters

Electrically powered arc jets which produce thrust at high specific impulse could provide a substantial cost reduction for orbital transfer and station keeping missions. There is currently a limited understanding of the complex, nonlinear interactions in the plasma propellant which has hindered the development of high efficiency arc jet thrusters by making it difficult to predict the effect of design changes and to interpret experimental results. A computational model developed at the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) to study laser powered thrusters and radio frequency gas heaters has been adapted to provide a tool to help understand the physical processes in arc jet thrusters. The approach is to include in the model those physical and chemical processes which appear to be important, and then to evaluate our judgement by the comparison of numerical simulations with experimental data. The results of this study have been presented at four technical conferences. The details of the work accomplished in this project are covered in the individual papers included in the appendix of this report. We present a brief description of the model covering its most important features followed by a summary of the effort.

Keefer, Dennis↗