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Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization

Operation and maintenance costs for nuclear power plants are very large. Reactors are starting to shut down even after their operating licenses have been extended, because they are not price competitive compared to other energy sources. The nuclear industry is witnessing early closure of nuclear power plants due to economic reasons despite excellent safety records. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce costs to prevent these early closures. This paper showcases recent research into advanced fault diagnostics techniques and preventative maintenance optimization to reduce these maintenance costs. This report focuses on the condensate and feedwater system for both pressurized and boiling water reactor systems. The computerized maintenance management system, which contains the plant’s digital record of all the corrective- and preventative-maintenance work orders, was used as a ground truth to locate potential faults and label the process data as healthy or faulty. Various feature extraction techniques were utilized to further differentiate the faults from the healthy data. Support vectors machines were used to categorize other test sets of process data as healthy or faulty through a cross validation procedure. Similar faults were not found within this system leading to preventative maintenance optimization. Unnecessary amounts of preventative maintenance lead to inflated maintenance costs. This paper summarizes the steps for preventative maintenance optimization from component health determination to recommendation for action. This optimization was completed for condensate pumps, condensate booster pumps, and the respective motors that drive them.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization

The nuclear industry is beginning to see reactors shut down—even after their operating licenses have been extended—because they are not economically competitive with other energy sources. These early closures happen primarily due to economic reasons, despite excellent safety records. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce costs in order to prevent these early closures. One of the contributors to these economic reasons is the large operations and maintenance costs. This paper showcases recent research on advanced fault diagnostics techniques and preventative maintenance optimization (PMO) for reducing NPP maintenance costs. Specifically, it focuses on the feedwater and condensate system (FWCS) for both pressurized- and boiling-water reactor (BWR) systems. The computerized maintenance management system (CMMS), which contains the plant’s digital record of all corrective maintenance (CM) and preventative maintenance (PM) work orders, provided the ground truth for locating potential faults and labeling the process data as either healthy or faulted. Various feature extraction techniques were used to further differentiate the faulted data from the healthy data. Through a cross-validation procedure, support vectors machines were used to label other test sets of process data as either healthy or faulted. With relatively few faults identified in the BWR system, the potential for PMO opens up, since an unnecessary amount of PM leads to inflated maintenance costs. The steps for PMO are summarized, from component health determinations to recommendations for action. An example of PMO assessment is presented for condensate pumps, condensate booster pumps, and the respective motors that drive them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Enhancement of Optical Efficiency of CSP Mirrors for Reducing O&M Cost via Near-Continuous Operation of Self-Cleaning Electrodynamic Screens (EDS). Final Report

Over the past decade, techno-economical advancements in solar energy systems, particularly the improvement in the conversion efficiency of PV modules made with mono-crystalline silicon solar cells from 12% to 20%, as well as the cost reduction in manufacturing by a factor of about 10%, have made it possible to achieve a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in PV plants that is comparable to, or less than, the cost of deriving electricity from fossil fuels. Operating PV plants in mid-latitude sun-belt regions, where the solar irradiance level is highest, provides a high annual energy-yield (kWh/kWp) due to two factors: (1) the availability of predictable high solar irradiance throughout the year with the fewest interruptions in solar flux from clouds and rain, and (2) the increased conversion efficiency of crystalline solar cells, as recombination loss has decreased with increased intensity of the sunlight that illuminates the silicon solar cells. Semi-arid and desert regions, however, are plagued by high atmospheric dust concentrations and frequent sand storms. The deposition of a layer of dust on the optical surfaces of solar collectors such as PV modules and concentrating mirrors reduces the transmission efficiency of sunlight that actually reaches the solar cells or receivers, resulting in high energy-yield soiling loss. There are two major cost components to operating a solar plant: (1) installation costs, and (2) operation-and-maintenance (O&M) costs. There is no fuel cost; hence operating a solar plant in a semi-arid or desert region provides high returns on investment if soiling losses are mitigated via efficient cleaning methods and optimized cleaning frequency. If solar collectors are not cleaned, the accumulation of dust layers on solar collectors may cause the operation of such plants in arid regions to become economically unviable. Washing solar collectors with water and detergent, as is most commonly done now, is an efficient method for cleaning. The conventional approach in utility-scale solar plants is to use a large truck with a water tank and pump system for spraying deionized water on the surface of the solar collectors. Robotic cleaning with brushes, used for many solar plants, requires lesser water for cleaning. The water consumed using semi-automated cleaning of PV modules in utility-scale solar plants is approximately 2 liters/m 2 per cleaning cycle. The total optical surface area of the solar collectors in 1 TW-scale solar installation will be more than 3 × 109 m 2 ; hence an enormous amount of water be needed for cleaning. There simply is not enough fresh water in the sun-belt areas of the world for predicted cleaning needs. In solar power plants, the estimated cost of cleaning solar collectors includes expenses related to the equipment used, labor, cost of transportation of water, the energy required for cleaning, plus ancillary costs whereas the cost of water is not considered. The water used is obtained from sources located close to plant sites, unmindful of the environmental and societal impact as the power plants are oftentimes located in regions that face severe drought. This practice is very similar to the cost calculations in deriving the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in conventional power plants based on burning fossil fuel such as coal and gas, while disregarding the cost of climate change and health effects. Unless a water-free or low-water cleaning method is established, the expansion of solar plants may lose public support in areas suffering long intervals of drought. The goal of this research project has been the development and application of the Electrodynamic Screen (EDS) as a means for a water-free, scalable cleaning process applicable to solar-power installations, including rooftop applications. We describe here the development of an EDS film-based cleaning process as an emerging method for use on PV modules, parabolic troughs, and heliostats. This report aims to show the feasibility of integrating or retrofitting EDS films onto the optical surfaces of solar collectors (both PV and CSP) while maintaining high transmission or reflection efficiency. The cleaning action provided by the EDS film is an active method to remove dust deposits by electrodynamic force. Current lab-scale prototype EDS films, retrofitted onto solar panels and mirrors, have shown to be capable of maintaining optical transmission or specular-reflection efficiencies higher than 90% of initial values under clean conditions. The optical surfaces of solar collectors laminated with EDS films can remove more than 90% of deposited dust when the EDS is activated for less than two minutes. As an electrodynamic dust removal process, the EDS film-based method is designed primarily for the removal of dust in solar installations located in semi-arid and desert areas, where the atmosphere is often dry and dusty and rainfall is infrequent. While EDS film application minimizes water consumption and facilitates cleaning as frequently as needed, it has limitations in removing contaminants such as soot, organic pollutants deposited as fine films on the surface, and bird droppings. The dust removal efficiency of the EDS is maximum at relative humidity RH is 40 to 50% and decreases at when RH > 65%. Many solar plant sites undergo diurnal and seasonal cycles of high ambient, early afternoon temperatures and an RH that reaches the dew point early in the morning. These variations in atmospheric conditions do not limit the operation of the EDS film. This report presents a brief review of the progress and the potential of EDS film technology for mitigating the impact of dust on solar collectors via water-free cleaning, as well as current technical challenges regarding efficiency and durability. Our experimental data on the performance of EDS films show that: (1) the dust-removal efficiency (DRE) can reach levels higher than 90%, (2) the specular reflectivity (SR) of EDS film-laminated second-surface mirrors reach levels in excess of 90%, (3) the specular reflectivity restoration (SRR) can exceed 90%, (4) the output-power restoration (OPR) of PV modules can exceed 95%, and (5) the optical transmission efficiency (TE) of the EDS films can be greater than 90%. Working with Sandia National Laboratories (NM), Corning Research and Development Corporation (NY), Eastman Kodak (NY), Tomark-Worthen Industries (NH), and EDS Chile SPA (Chile), we have produced EDS film-laminated PV modules and demonstrated their self-cleaning functions without requiring water. We have demonstrated that the operational range of EDS films will cover the expected ambient temperature of solar fields at RH cycling varying from 20 to 95% as long as the EDS films are activated in the RH range 20 to 50%. (Typical solar-field climates in deserts and semi-arid lands often reach near dew point in coastal areas.) Our experiments on the application of hydrophobic-fluorinated nanoparticle coatings on EDS film surfaces show that the EDS operational range can be extended to higher RH levels that approach the dew point. At Eastman Kodak, as one of our industrial partners, we were able to establish a process for manufacturing EDS films using flexographic printing of the electrodes onto transparent polymer films. This process utilizes an existing manufacturing line at Eastman Kodak that allows fabrication of medium-scale EDS films (26 cm × 30 cm). The manufacturing process has the capacity to produce EDS films at high production speeds. The medium-scale EDS films that have been printed at Kodak were evaluated in the lab at Boston University. The EDS films produced at Kodak were laminated at Tomark-Worthen using an industrial scale vacuum laminator to produce EDS film stacks, which can be affixed onto the optical surfaces of PV modules or concentrating mirrors. The EDS film stack consists of the EDS films that have Willow® Glass (WG) which has a thickness of 100 μm as the front surface. The WG sheets obtained from Corning Research and Development Corporation are customized in size and shape to cover the active area of the EDS films. The back surface of the EDS film stack is integrated onto the optical surface of the solar panel or mirror using optically clear adhesive (OCA) films or silicone adhesives. The OCA films (thickness 25 μm) are produced by 3M. The EDS film stacks have the architecture: WG/OCA/EDS Film/OCA/ over PV module or solar mirror. The power-supply units needed for activating the electrodes of the EDS film were designed and produced at Boston University. These power supply units provide three-phase, 1.2 kV voltage pulses at a very low current (micro-ampere) level and at a low frequency (≈ 5 Hz). The voltage pulses are applied to the electrodes in a sequence such that the train of pulses resembles a unidirectional traveling wave of electrical field on the surface of the EDS film. The dust particles on the surface become charged electrostatically and are levitated by the Coulomb force. The lateral sweeping action of the traveling electric field created by the three-phase voltages pulses then sweeps the dust off the surface. The energy consumed by the EDS electrodes is less than 0.2 Wh/m 2 /cleaning cycle, enabling energy-efficient restoration of output power (OPR) of PV module or specular reflectivity restoration (SRR) for solar mirrors. The EDS system consists of (1) an EDS film stack laminated onto the solar collectors, (2) connection of the EDS film to its power supply unit and (3) Interconnection of the power supply to PV modules or solar mirrors. Design, construction and assessment of field-testing units that have EDS stack laminated PV modules for evaluating the performance of the EDS films in solar fields is being carried out at BU. Our progress under this project, aimed at the advancement of EDS film technology, has reached DOE Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. Based on the extensive laboratory evaluations and limited field trials, as well as contacts with potential users, we believe that the technology has reached its commercial stage. We are conducting a cost analysis using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) System Advisory Model (SAM) and are preparing for field trials of EDS films in different solar fields in the US, Chile, India and in the Middle East. A brief description of EDS film performance, construction and testing of the field-test unit, autonomous operation of the field-test unit for evaluating EDS performance in increasing energy yield, associated revenue savings, and water conservation is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Market Segmentation Analysis of Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks with a Fuel Cell Emphasis

The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. However, the economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to bridge the gap of techno-economic analyses for these alternative powertrain vehicles by comparing all of them within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750 mile range], Class 8 short haul [300 mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery), for different Department of Energy technology statuses (2018, 2025, and Ultimate). The TCO framework includes direct costs (purchase price, fuel, operating and maintenance), indirect costs (dwell time costs due to refueling/recharging and payload opportunity costs from forgone revenue due to the truck being weight-limited), but excludes general operation costs (driver wages and benefits, insurance, tire replacements, permits, tolls) that are assumed to be the same across powertrains. The TCO was evaluated for four scenarios that reflect typical business operating conditions. The TCO analysis results highlight that each powertrain technology may have an economic advantage on a TCO basis in certain business operating conditions and depending on fuel price realized. For Class 8 long haul trucks when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric and fuel cell electric powertrains could be cost competitive with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved and fuel prices are low. If payload opportunity costs are incurred, battery electric powertrains are not estimated to reach TCO parity with diesel even if Ultimate targets and low electricity prices are realized, indicating a need for significant vehicle lightweighting. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and compressed natural gas vehicle powertrains have very competitive TCOs with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are incurred, the battery electric vehicle powertrains can achieve TCO parity with diesel only if the Ultimate battery prices are met ($80/kWh). In Class 4 parcel delivery truck operating scenarios where there are no dwell time costs incurred, the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle, and fuel cell electric vehicle could be cost-competitive with diesel and compressed natural gas with current (2018) technology performance and costs. In general, the payload opportunity costs can be a significant driver to TCO for the Class 8 long and short haul commercial vehicle applications while the dwell time costs could be a major TCO cost driver for the Class 4 parcel delivery vehicle if the business scenario realizes those costs.

advanced powertrains↗

Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization NPIC presentation

The nuclear industry is beginning to see reactors shut down—even after their operating licenses have been extended—because they are not economically competitive with other energy sources. These early closures happen primarily due to economic reasons, despite excellent safety records. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce costs in order to prevent these early closures. One of the contributors to these economic reasons is the large operations and maintenance costs. This paper showcases recent research on advanced fault diagnostics techniques and preventative maintenance optimization (PMO) for reducing NPP maintenance costs. Specifically, it focuses on the feedwater and condensate system (FWCS) for both pressurized- and boiling-water reactor (BWR) systems. The computerized maintenance management system (CMMS), which contains the plant’s digital record of all corrective maintenance (CM) and preventative maintenance (PM) work orders, provided the ground truth for locating potential faults and labeling the process data as either healthy or faulted. Various feature extraction techniques were used to further differentiate the faulted data from the healthy data. Through a cross-validation procedure, support vectors machines were used to label other test sets of process data as either healthy or faulted. With relatively few faults identified in the BWR system, the potential for PMO opens up, since an unnecessary amount of PM leads to inflated maintenance costs. The steps for PMO are summarized, from component health determinations to recommendations for action. An example of PMO assessment is presented for condensate pumps, condensate booster pumps, and the respective motors that drive them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Heat engine requirements for advanced solar thermal power systems

Requirements and constraints are established for power conversion subsystems, including heat engine, alternator and auxiliaries, of dish concentrator solar thermal power systems. In order to be competitive with conventional power systems, it is argued that the heat engine should be of less than 40 kW rated output, in a subsystem with an efficiency of at least 40% at rated output and at least 37% at half power. An interval between major overhauls of 50,000 hours is also desirable, along with minor maintenance and lubrication not more than four times a year requiring no more than one man-hour each time, and optimal reliability. Also found to be important are the capability for hybrid operation using heat from a solar receiver, fuel-fired combustor or both simultaneously, operation at any attitude, stability to transients in input power and output loading, operation at ambient temperatures from -30 to 50 C, and compatibility with environmental and safety requirements. Cost targets include a price of $180/kWe, and operation, maintenance and replacement costs averaging $0.001/kWh for 30 years of operation.

Jaffe, L. D.↗

Deep Space Network Revitalization: Operations for the 21st Century

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) supports unmanned space missions through a Deep Space Network (DSN) that is developed and operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL and its subcontractors. The DSN capabilities have been incrementally upgraded since its establishment in the late '50s and are delivered from three Deep Space Communications Complexes (DSCC's) near Goldstone, California, Madrid, Spain, and Canberra, Australia. At present each DSCC includes large antennas with diameters from 11 meters to 70 meters, that operate largely in S-band and X-band frequencies. In addition each DSCC includes all the associated electronics to receive and process the low-level telemetry signals, and radiate the necessary command with high-power transmitters. To accommodate support of the rapidly increasing number of missions by NASA and other space agencies, and to facilitate maintaining and increasing the level of service in a shrinking budget environment, JPL has initiated a bold road map with three key components: 1. A Network Simplification Project (NSP) to upgrade aging electronics, replacing them with modem commercially based components. NSP and related replacement tasks are projected to reduce the cost of operating the DSN by 50% relative to the 1997 levels. 2. Upgrade of all 34-m and 70-m antennas to provision of Ka-Band telemetry downlink capability, complemented by an existing X-band uplink capability. This will increase the effective telemetry downlink capacity by a factor of 4, without building any new antennas. 3. Establishment of an optical communications network to support for high data rate unmanned missions that cannot be accommodated with radiofrequency (RF) communications, as well as establish a path toward support of manned missions at Mars. In this paper we present the mission loading projected for 1998-2008 and the elements of the JPL road map that will enable supporting it with a reduced budget. Particular emphasis will be on streamlining the architecture and to reduce the DSN cost for operations, maintenance and sustaining engineering while at the same time also simplifying and reducing the operations cost for the flight missions.

Statman, Joseph I.↗

Preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment of Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) of Natural Gas for Pure Hydrogen Production and Power Generation with Integrated CO2 Capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) is an advanced auto-thermal reforming technology that produces hydrogen or syngas from natural gas. It integrates inherent CO2 capture by utilizing a specialized oxygen carrier in a single fluidized bed reactor, eliminating the need for complex, energy-intensive post-combustion separation. GSR technology builds upon Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), an experimentally proven technology with strong potential for scaling up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H₂) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H₂ is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H₂ production by ~30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H₂, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H₂, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ~75% of total global warming impacts (~2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Preliminary techno-economic assessment of gas switching reforming (GSR) of natural gas for pure hydrogen production and power generation with integrated CO2 capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) with integrated CO2 capture, a technology based on Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), has been experimentally proven and shows potential for scale-up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H2 is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H2 production by ∼ 30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H2, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H2, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ∼ 75% of total global warming impacts (∼2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Exploring the Impact of Near-Term Innovations on the Technical Potential of Land-Based Wind Energy

Land based wind may play a critical role in reaching emissions reductions goals and high renewable contribution scenarios with capacity expansion modeling results estimating over 1 terawatt of land-based wind by 2035 to reach 100% clean electricity. Deployment of land-based wind at this magnitude may require significant investments in transmission infrastructure and will require significant land area for new wind and transmission. Cost reductions via technological advancements in wind turbine design, construction, and maintenance will have a major role in enabling the scale of deployment required. Since 1998, the levelized cost of wind energy has fallen by over 60% due to improvements in capacity factors, advancements in turbine controls, and cost reductions in installation, operation, and maintenance. These cost reduction pathways, generally referred to as wind technology "innovations", have enabled significant increases in the capacity and electric generation share of wind power in the United States. Nevertheless, achievements of past wind innovations have not led to widespread wind deployment outside of high wind speed geographies. This study evaluates the potential of near-term innovations to expand the geographic range of economically viable land-based wind power production in the United States. Many challenges to future deployment of wind power can be associated with increasing concentration in high-wind areas. As more wind power is deployed in these same areas, it is likely that residential and regulatory resistance to further deployment will increase, access to transmission will diminish, and options for distant companies and governments with renewable energy goals will remain limited. Therefore, this analysis aims to emphasize the potential for innovations to enable land-based wind in regions with limited wind deployment and with lower wind resource and better access to transmission.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparative assessment of new oxygen carrier materials for gas switching reforming of natural gas: Techno-economics assessment, life cycle analysis, and experimental insights

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO 2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) with integrated CO 2 capture, a technology based on Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), has been experimentally proven and shows potential for scale-up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al 2 O 3 , Fe 2 O 3 -CeO 2 /Al 2 O 3 , and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H 2 ) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H 2 is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H 2 production by ∼ 30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H 2 , the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H 2 , competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H 2 indicate NG consumption drives ∼ 75% of total global warming impacts (∼2.3 kg CO 2 eq/kg H 2 ). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H 2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Summary and evaluation of the conceptual design study of a potential early commercial MHD power plant (CSPEC)

The conceptual design study of a potential early commercial MHD power plant (CSPEC) is described and the results are summarized. Each of two contractors did a conceptual design of an approximtely 1000 MWe open-cycle MHD/steam plant with oxygen enriched combustion air preheated to an intermediate temperatue in a metallic heat exchanger. The contractors were close in their overall plant efficiency estimates but differed in their capital cost and cost of electricity estimates, primarily because of differences in balance-of-plant material, contingency, and operating and maintenance cost estimates. One contractor concluded that its MHD plant design compared favorably in cost of electricity with conventional coal-fired steam plants. The other contractor is making such a comparison as part of a follow-on study. Each contractor did a preliminary investigation of part-load performance and plant availability. The results of NASA studies investigating the effect of plant size and oxidizer preheat temperature on the performance of CSPEC-type MHD plants are also described. The efficiency of a 1000 MWe plant is about three points higher than of a 200 MWe plant. Preheating to 1600 F gives an efficiency about one and one-half points higher than preheating to 800 F for all plant sizes. For each plant size and preheat temperature there is an oxidizer enrichment level and MHD generator length that gives the highest plant efficiency.

Staiger, P. J.↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage (2020 Update)

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of 19 publications that consider utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates varied cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (on a normalized basis) relative to the published values. Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $\$$144/kWh, $\$$208/kWh, and $\$$293/kWh in 2030 and $\$$88/kWh, $\$$156/kWh, and $\$$219/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2021 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that consider utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates varied cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (on a normalized basis) relative to the published values. Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $\$$143/kWh, $\$$198/kWh, and $\$$248/kWh in 2030 and $\$$87/kWh, $\$$149/kWh, and $\$$248/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2023 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. We use the recent publications to create low, mid, and high cost projections. Projected storage costs are $245/kWh, $326/kWh, and $403/kWh in 2030 and $159/kWh, $226/kWh, and $348/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Strutjet Rocket Based Combined Cycle Engine

The multi stage chemical rocket has been established over many years as the propulsion System for space transportation vehicles, while, at the same time, there is increasing concern about its continued affordability and rather involved reusability. Two broad approaches to addressing this overall launch cost problem consist in one, the further development of the rocket motor, and two, the use of airbreathing propulsion to the maximum extent possible as a complement to the limited use of a conventional rocket. In both cases, a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) vehicle is considered a desirable goal. However, neither the "all-rocket" nor the "all-airbreathing" approach seems realizable and workable in practice without appreciable advances in materials and manufacturing. An affordable system must be reusable with minimal refurbishing on-ground, and large mean time between overhauls, and thus with high margins in design. It has been suggested that one may use different engine cycles, some rocket and others airbreathing, in a combination over a flight trajectory, but this approach does not lead to a converged solution with thrust-to-mass, specific impulse, and other performance and operational characteristics that can be obtained in the different engines. The reason is this type of engine is simply a combination of different engines with no commonality of gas flowpath or components, and therefore tends to have the deficiencies of each of the combined engines. A further development in this approach is a truly combined cycle that incorporates a series of cycles for different modes of propulsion along a flight path with multiple use of a set of components and an essentially single gas flowpath through the engine. This integrated approach is based on realizing the benefits of both a rocket engine and airbreathing engine in various combinations by a systematic functional integration of components in an engine class usually referred to as a rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) engine. RBCC engines exhibit a high potential for lowering the operating cost of launching payloads into orbit. Two sources of cost reductions can be identified. First, RBCC powered vehicles require only 20% takeoff thrust compared to conventional rockets, thereby lowering the thrust requirements and the replacement cost of the engines. Second, due to the higher structural and thermal margins achievable with RBCC engines coupled with a higher degree of subsystem redundance lower maintenance and operating cost are obtainable.

Siebenhaar, A.↗

Prognosis of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data

Predictive maintenance and condition monitoring systems for wind turbines have seen increased adoption to minimize downtime, reducing operation and maintenance costs. On today’s wind power plants, the integrated supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system provides low- frequency operational data that can be leveraged to quantify a wind turbine’s health. The aim of this study is to utilize machine-learning techniques to predict axial cracking failures in wind turbine gearbox bearings up to 1 month ahead of time. The failures are assumed to have occurred when the investigated bearing was replaced. While current SCADA systems show the overall condition of a wind turbine, often they do not allow for the investigation of specific gearbox bearings’ health. To enrich bearing fault signatures, additional data are computed through physics-based models using gearbox design information. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score. Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision and F1 score is about 33% and 12% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Case for Deploying Complex Systems Utilizing Commodity Components

When the International Space Station (ISS) finally reached an operational state, many of the Payload Operations and Integration Facility (POIF) hardware components were reaching end of life, COTS product costs were soaring, and the ISS budget was becoming severely constrained. However, most requirement development was complete. In addition, the ISS program is a fully functioning program with at least fifteen years of operational life remaining. Therefore it is critical that any upgrades, refurbishments, or enhancements be accomplished in realtime with minimal disruptions to service. For these and other reasons, it was necessary to ensure the viability of the POIF. Due to the to the breadth of capability of the POIF (a NASA ground station), it is believed that the lessons to be learned by other complex systems are applicable and any solutions garnered by the POIF are applicable to other complex systems as well. With that in mind, a number of new approaches have been investigated to increase the portability of the POIF and reduce the cost of refurbishment, operations, and maintenance. These new approaches were directed at the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO); not only the refurbishment but also current operational difficulties, licensing, and anticipation of the next refurbishment. Our basic premise is that technology had evolved dramatically since the concept of the POIF ground system and we should leverage our experience on this new technological landscape. Fortunately, Moore's law and market forces have changed the landscape considerably. These changes are manifest in five (5) ways that are particularly relevant to POIF: 1. Complex Instruction Set Computing (CISC) processors have advanced to unprecedented levels of compute capacity with a dramatic cost break, 2. Linux has become a major operating system supported by most vendors on a broad range of platforms, 3. Windows(TradeMark) based desktops are pervasive in the office environment, 4. Stable and affordable WindowsTM development environments and tools are available and offer a rich set of capabilities, 5. The WindowsTM 2000 provides a stable client platform, Therefore, five studies were proposed, developed, and are in the current process of deployment which dramatically reduces the cost of operations, maintenance, refurbishment, and deployment of a ground system. Restating and refining the basic premise stated earlier, it is possible to enhance operations through the replacement of hardware and software components with commodity based items wherever applicable. This will dramatically reduce the overall lifecycle cost of the project. The first study leveraged the POIF S secure, three-tier, web architecture to replace the client workstations with lower cost PC platforms. A second study initiated a review of COTS products to examine the level of added value of each product. This study included replacement of some COTS products with custom code, deletions, substitutions, and consolidation of COTS products. Studies three and four reviewed the server architectures of the data distribution systems and Enhanced HOSC System (EHS) command and telemetry system to propose migration to new platforms, both software and hardware. The final study reviewed current IP communication technologies, developed an operational model for flight operations, and demonstrated that voice over IP was practical and could be integrated into operations.

Bryant, Barry S.↗