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DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2001

Model-based parameter estimation using cardiovascular response to orthostatic stress

This paper presents a cardiovascular model that is capable of simulating the short-term (< or approximately equal to 3 min) transient hemodynamic response to gravitational stress and a gradient-based optimization method that allows for the automated estimation of model parameters from simulated or experimental data. We perform a sensitivity analysis of the transient heart rate response to determine which parameters of the model impact the heart rate dynamics significantly. We subsequently include only those parameters in the estimation routine that impact the transient heart rate dynamics substantially. We apply the estimation algorithm to both simulated and real data and showed that restriction to the 20 most important parameters does not impair our ability to match the data.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1977

A simulation of air pollution model parameter estimation using data from a ground-based LIDAR remote sensor

One way to obtain estimates of the unknown parameters in a pollution dispersion model is to compare the model predictions with remotely sensed air quality data. A ground-based LIDAR sensor provides relative pollution concentration measurements as a function of space and time. The measured sensor data are compared with the dispersion model output through a numerical estimation procedure to yield parameter estimates which best fit the data. This overall process is tested in a computer simulation to study the effects of various measurement strategies. Such a simulation is useful prior to a field measurement exercise to maximize the information content in the collected data. Parametric studies of simulated data matched to a Gaussian plume dispersion model indicate the trade offs available between estimation accuracy and data acquisition strategy.

Kibler, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Application of parameter estimation to highly unstable aircraft

The application of parameter estimation to highly unstable aircraft is discussed. Included are a discussion of the problems in applying the output error method to such aircraft and demonstrates that the filter error method eliminates these problems. The paper shows that the maximum likelihood estimator with no process noise does not reduce to the output error method when the system is unstable. It also proposes and demonstrates an ad hoc method that is similar in form to the filter error method, but applicable to nonlinear problems. Flight data from the X-29 forward-swept-wing demonstrator is used to illustrate the problems and methods discussed.

Maine, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Parameter estimation of large flexible aerospace structures with application to the control of the Maypole Deployable Reflector

Systems such as the Maypole deployable reflector have a distributed parameter nature. The flexible column and hoop structure and the circular antenna of 30-100 meter diameter which it supports are described by partial, rather than ordinary, differential equations. Progress completed in reduced order modelling andd controller design and digital parameter estimation and control is summarized. Topics covered include depolyment and on-orbit operation; quasi-static (steady state) operation; dynamic distributed parameter system; autoregressive moving average identification; frequency domain procedures; direct or implicit active control; adaptive observers; parameter estimation using a linear reinforcement learning factor; feedback control; and reduced order modeling for nonlinear systems.

Balas, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Effect of Medium Symmetries in Limiting the Number of Parameters Estimated with Polarimetric Interferometry

The addition of interferometric backscattering pairs to the conventional polarimetric SAR data over forests and other vegetated areas increases the dimensionality of the data space, in principle enabling the estimation of a larger number of vegetation parameters. Without regard to the sensitivity of these data to vegetation scattering parameters, this paper poses the question: Will increasing the data channels as such result in a one-to-one increase in the number of parameters that can be estimated, or do vegetation and data properties inherently limit that number otherwise? In this paper, the complete polarimetric interferometric covariance matrix is considered and various symmetry properties of the scattering medium are used to study whether any of the correlation pairs can be eliminated. The number of independent pairs has direct consequences in their utility in parameter estimation schemes, since the maximum number of parameters that can be estimated cannot exceed the number of unique measurements. The independent components of the polarimetric interferometric SAR (POL/INSAR) data are derived for media with reflection, rotation, and azimuth symmetries, which are often encountered in vegetated surfaces. Similar derivations have been carried out before for simple polarimetry, i.e., zero baseline. This paper extends those to the interferometric case of general nonzero baselines. It is shown that depending on the type of symmetries present, the number of independent available measurements that can be used to estimate medium parameters will vary. In particular, whereas in the general case there are 27 mathematically independent measurements possible from a polarimetric interferometer, this number can be reduced to 15, 9, and 6 if the medium has reflection, rotation, or azimuthal symmetries, respectively. The results can be used in several ways in the interpretation of SAR data and the development of parameter estimation schemes, which will be discussed at the presentation. Recent POL/INSAR data from the JPL AIRSAR over a forested area will be used to demonstrate the results of this derivation. This work was performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, under contract from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Moghaddam, Mahta↗

NASA NTRS2024

Aircraft Parameter Estimation Considering Process and Measurement Noise

A practical formulation is proposed for parameter estimation using the filter-error method, which is a maximum-likelihood estimator for dynamic systems having both process and measurement noise inputs. The novelty of the proposed formulation is that by accurately estimating the measurement noise covariance matrix using a time series analysis method, the remaining unknowns (which include the unknown parameters in the state-space matrices and the process noise covariance matrix) become decorrelated and can be estimated simultaneously in a straightforward manner. The approach is demonstrated using simulation data and flight test data from a subscale airplane. Results indicate that proposed algorithm can obtain accurate modeling results when both measurement noise and process noise are present in the data.

Kalman filter↗

NASA NTRS1982

Doppler parameter estimation techniques for spaceborne SAR with applications to ocean current measurement

The problems of Doppler parameter estimation in the processing of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are examined. The phase history of a target can be approximated by a linear FM signal with two parameters: the Doppler centroid and the Doppler frequency rate. Two methods to estimate these parameters automatically from the radar echo are presented. The accuracies of these methods were evaluated using the SEASAT SAR data. It is shown that the method for Doppler centroid determination may be applicable in the measurement of ocean current velocities. The concept behind this technique is presented and the accuracies of the measurements required are examined. Some preliminary results of testing this technique with the SEASAT data are presented.

Li, F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On a variational approach to some parameter estimation problems

Examples (1-D seismic, large flexible structures, bioturbation, nonlinear population dispersal) in which a variation setting can provide a convenient framework for convergence and stability arguments in parameter estimation problems are considered. Some of these examples are 1-D seismic, large flexible structures, bioturbation, and nonlinear population dispersal. Arguments for convergence and stability via a variational approach of least squares formulations of parameter estimation problems for partial differential equations is one aspect of the problem considered.

Banks, H. T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On a variational approach to some parameter estimation problems

Banks, H. T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Efficient detection and signal parameter estimation with application to high dynamic GPS receiver

In a system for deriving position, velocity, and acceleration information from a received signal emitted from an object to be tracked wherein the signal comprises a carrier signal phase modulated by unknown binary data and experiencing very high Doppler and Doppler rate, this invention provides combined estimation/detection apparatus for simultaneously detecting data bits and obtaining estimates of signal parameters such as carrier phase and frequency related to receiver dynamics in a sequential manner. There is a first stage for obtaining estimates of the signal parameters related to phase and frequency in the vicinity of possible data transitions on the basis of measurements obtained within a current data bit. A second stage uses the estimates from the first stage to decide whether or not a data transition has actually occurred. There is a third stage for removing data modulation from the received signal when a data transition has occurred and a fourth stage for using the received signal with data modulation removed therefrom to update global parameters which are dependent only upon receiver dynamics and independent of data modulation. Finally, there is a fifth stage for using the global parameters to determine the position, velocity, and acceleration of the object.

Kumar, Rajendra↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parameter Estimation for Decoding Sensor Signals

This paper introduces a parameter estimation approach for decoding digital sensor signals in a cyber-physical system. For unknown or not fully characterized digital sensor data, it can be difficult to decipher a desired signal from background or noise. In a cyber-physical system with networked sensors, we can leverage knowledge of the physical system to inform the decoding of the digital signals. This work in progress is a case study on deciphering commercial vehicle on-board sensor networks that communicate through the Controller Area Network (CAN). By understanding the stock vehicle sensor network, a vehicle can be extended into a scalable research platform with minimal instrumentation. Our challenge was to localize desired sensor signals encoded in network traffic that included other sensor data, control messages, as well as encoding and security overhead. Due to the vehicle’s unknown sensor network, our approach developed methods to efficiently analyze and identify key signals despite the large state-space for potential signal embeddings.

Nice, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS1974

A square root formulation for the combined state-parameter estimator with application to the identification of sailplane performance

A square root formulation is presented for the discrete combined state parameter estimation problem with linear plant dynamics, Gaussian random disturbances, and constant but uncertain parameters. The estimator is a combination of the classical Kalman filter and a maximum likelihood algorithm which maximizes the parameter log-likelihood function using a first order search routine.

Froidevaux, M. R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

GET-Solar (Generation forecasting and parameter Estimation Tool for Solar) [SWR-20-115]

GET-Solar (Generation forecasting and parameter Estimation Tool for Solar) can be used to estimate behind the meter (BTM) solar generation from limited datasets. Using distributed sets of diverse solar sites, but with close spatial proximity, and/or limited historical PV generation information can be used to generate of solar profiles. This is useful for applications where partial solar generation data is available, and on-site irradiance data is not available. GET-Solar calculates PV technical data parameters and calculates output by modeling shading and cloud cover impacts. Clear sky irradiance profiles are used to calculate base generation profiles on which the local shading and cloud cover layers are added. In order to arrive at clear sky generation data, PV mounting information like panel tilt and and angle is needed. For cases where PV mounting information is missing, panel tilt and azimuth angle can be estimated using a non-linear optimization algorithm. GET-Solar can also be used for forecasting applications where historical PV data is available to estimate local shading at various solar positions. This overall framework can be used for estimation of solar parameters, and assisting in analyzing and modeling diverse sets of DER where solar generation is also present in utility meter data. GET-Solar has been developed in Python and uses the Pyomo optimization language.

Abraham, Sherin Ann↗

NASA NTRS2013

Parameter Estimation for Compact Binary Coalescence Signals with the First Generation Gravitational-Wave Detector Network

Compact binary systems with neutron stars or black holes are one of the most promising sources for ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Gravitational radiation encodes rich information about source physics; thus parameter estimation and model selection are crucial analysis steps for any detection candidate events. Detailed models of the anticipated waveforms enable inference on several parameters, such as component masses, spins, sky location and distance, that are essential for new astrophysical studies of these sources. However, accurate measurements of these parameters and discrimination of models describing the underlying physics are complicated by artifacts in the data, uncertainties in the waveform models and in the calibration of the detectors. Here we report such measurements on a selection of simulated signals added either in hardware or software to the data collected by the two LIGO instruments and the Virgo detector during their most recent joint science run, including a blind injection where the signal was not initially revealed to the collaboration. We exemplify the ability to extract information about the source physics on signals that cover the neutron-star and black-hole binary parameter space over the component mass range 1M25M and the full range of spin parameters. The cases reported in this study provide a snapshot of the status of parameter estimation in preparation for the operation of advanced detectors.

Aasi, J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: covariance modelling and its impact on parameter estimation and quality of fit

ABSTRACT We describe and test the fiducial covariance matrix model for the combined two-point function analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES-Y3) data set. Using a variety of new ansatzes for covariance modelling and testing, we validate the assumptions and approximations of this model. These include the assumption of Gaussian likelihood, the trispectrum contribution to the covariance, the impact of evaluating the model at a wrong set of parameters, the impact of masking and survey geometry, deviations from Poissonian shot noise, galaxy weighting schemes, and other sub-dominant effects. We find that our covariance model is robust and that its approximations have little impact on goodness of fit and parameter estimation. The largest impact on best-fitting figure-of-merit arises from the so-called fsky approximation for dealing with finite survey area, which on average increases the χ2 between maximum posterior model and measurement by $3.7{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (Δχ2 ≈ 18.9). Standard methods to go beyond this approximation fail for DES-Y3, but we derive an approximate scheme to deal with these features. For parameter estimation, our ignorance of the exact parameters at which to evaluate our covariance model causes the dominant effect. We find that it increases the scatter of maximum posterior values for Ωm and σ8 by about $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and for the dark energy equation-of-state parameter by about $5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2005

A least-squares parameter estimation algorithm for switched hammerstein systems with applications to the VOR

A "Multimode" or "switched" system is one that switches between various modes of operation. When a switch occurs from one mode to another, a discontinuity may result followed by a smooth evolution under the new regime. Characterizing the switching behavior of these systems is not well understood and, therefore, identification of multimode systems typically requires a preprocessing step to classify the observed data according to a mode of operation. A further consequence of the switched nature of these systems is that data available for parameter estimation of any subsystem may be inadequate. As such, identification and parameter estimation of multimode systems remains an unresolved problem. In this paper, we 1) show that the NARMAX model structure can be used to describe the impulsive-smooth behavior of switched systems, 2) propose a modified extended least squares (MELS) algorithm to estimate the coefficients of such models, and 3) demonstrate its applicability to simulated and real data from the Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (VOR). The approach will also allow the identification of other nonlinear bio-systems, suspected of containing "hard" nonlinearities.

Evaluation Studies↗

NASA NTRS1974

Parameter estimation using an a posteriori criterion

A procedure for system parameter estimation from noisy data is presented that is based on an a posteriori criterion. It is compared with a maximum likelihood approach for a process-noise case. Both methods yield identical results when the process noise is not modeled.

Bach, R. E., Jr.↗