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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

A Search for Rapidly Pulsating Hot Subdwarf Stars in the GALEX Survey

NASA’s Galaxy Evolution Explorer ( GALEX ) provided near- and far-UV observations for approximately 77% of the sky over a 10-year period; however, the data reduction pipeline initially only released single NUV and FUV images to the community. The recently released Python module gPhoton changes this, allowing calibrated time-series aperture photometry to be extracted easily from the raw GALEX data set. Here we use gPhoton to generate light curves for all hot subdwarf B (sdB) stars that were observed by GALEX , with the intention of identifying short-period, p-mode pulsations. We find that the spacecraft’s short visit durations, uneven gaps between visits, and dither pattern make the detection of hot subdwarf pulsations difficult. Nonetheless, we detect UV variations in four previously known pulsating targets and report their UV pulsation amplitudes and frequencies. Additionally, we find that several other sdB targets not previously known to vary show promising signals in their periodograms. Using optical follow-up photometry with the Skynet Robotic Telescope Network, we confirm p-mode pulsations in one of these targets, LAMOST J082517.99+113106.3, and report it as the most recent addition to the sdBV{sub r} class of variable stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Soda Pop: A Time-Series Clustering, Alarming and Disease Forecasting Application

To introduce Soda Pop, an R/Shiny application designed to be a disease agnostic time-series clustering, alarming, and forecasting tool to assist in disease surveillance “triage, analysis and reporting” workflows within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE). In this poster, we highlight the new capabilities that are brought to the BSVE by Soda Pop with an emphasis on the impact of methodological decisions. The Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) is a biological and chemical threat surveillance system sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). BSVE is intended to be user-friendly, multi-agency, cooperative, modular and threat agnostic platform for biosurveillance. In BSVE, a web-based workbench presents the analyst with applications (apps) developed by various DTRA funded researchers, which are deployed on-demand in the cloud(e.g., Amazon Web Services). These apps aim to address emerging needs and refine capabilities to enable early warning of chemical and biological threats for multiple users across local, state, and federal agencies. Soda Pop is an app developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to meet the current needs of the BSVE for early warning and detection of disease outbreaks. Aimed for use bya diverse set of analysts, the application is agnostic to data source and spatial scale enabling it to be generalizable across many diseases and locations. To achieve this, we placed a particular emphasis on clustering and alerting of disease signals within Soda Pop without strong prior assumptions on the nature of observed diseased counts. Although designed to be agnostic to the data source, Soda Pop was initially developed and tested on data summarizing Influenza-Like Illness in military hospitals from collaboration with the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch. Currently, the data incorporated also includes the CDC’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System(NNDSS) tables and the WHO’s Influenza A/B Influenza Data(Flunet). These data sources are now present in BSVE’s Postgres data storage for direct access. Soda Pop is designed to automate time-series tasks of data summarization, exploration, clustering, alarming and forecasting. Built as an R/Shiny application, Soda Pop is founded on the powerful statistical tool R.. Where applicable, Soda Pop facilitates nonparametric seasonal decomposition of time-series; hierarchical agglomerative clustering across reporting areas and between diseases within reporting areas; and a variety of alarming techniques including Exponential Weighted Moving Average alarms and Early Aberration Detection. Soda Pop embeds these techniques within a user-interface designed to enhance an analyst’s understanding of emerging trends in their data and enables the inclusion of its graphical elements into their dossier for further tracking and reporting. The ultimate goal of this software is to facilitate the discovery of unknown disease signals along with increasing the speed of detection of unusual patterns within these signals. Soda Pop organizes common statistical disease surveillance tasks in a manner integrated with BSVE data source inputs and outputs. The app analyzes time-series disease data and supports a robust set of clustering and alarming routines that avoid strong assumptions on the nature of observed disease counts. This attribute allows for flexibility in the data source, spatial scale, and disease types making it useful to a wide range of analysts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Real-time detection and classification of anomalous events in streaming data

A system is described for receiving a stream of events and scoring the events based on anomalousness and maliciousness (or other classification). The events can be displayed to a user in user-defined groupings in an animated fashion. The system can include a plurality of anomaly detectors that together implement an algorithm to identify low probability events and detect atypical traffic patterns. The atypical traffic patterns can then be classified as being of interest or not. In one particular example, in a network environment, the classification can be whether the network traffic is malicious or not.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Detection of anomalous events

A system is described for receiving a stream of events and scoring the events based on anomalousness and maliciousness (or other classification). The system can include a plurality of anomaly detectors that together implement an algorithm to identify low-probability events and detect atypical traffic patterns. The anomaly detector provides for comparability of disparate sources of data (e.g., network flow data and firewall logs.) Additionally, the anomaly detector allows for regulatability, meaning that the algorithm can be user configurable to adjust a number of false alerts. The anomaly detector can be used for a variety of probability density functions, including normal Gaussian distributions, irregular distributions, as well as functions associated with continuous or discrete variables.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Storage of sparse files using parallel log-structured file system

A sparse file is stored without holes by storing a data portion of the sparse file using a parallel log-structured file system; and generating an index entry for the data portion, the index entry comprising a logical offset, physical offset and length of the data portion. The holes can be restored to the sparse file upon a reading of the sparse file. The data portion can be stored at a logical end of the sparse file. Additional storage efficiency can optionally be achieved by (i) detecting a write pattern for a plurality of the data portions and generating a single patterned index entry for the plurality of the patterned data portions; and/or (ii) storing the patterned index entries for a plurality of the sparse files in a single directory, wherein each entry in the single directory comprises an identifier of a corresponding sparse file.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Channel Entity Alignment via Name Uniqueness Estimation

When searching for adversarial activity within multiple networks, one of the greatest challenges is how to accurately align entities across different channels of information. This task becomes increasingly difficult when minimal additional information is known about each individual besides a name. Within this study, we analyze name rarity and how it can be used to align people on three distinct data channels: Venmo financial transactions, Reddit online discussions, and a bibliographic data source of academic writings. We explore how the uniqueness of a name can be used to decide if a person is likely the same as another across networks, in the absence of any additional ground truth. While 100 percent confidence cannot be gained, we can use this information to clarify when a possible alignment is more or less likely to be the same individual, increasing our confidence of accurately detecting adversarial behavioral patterns. From the data collected, we found that 0.1% of people had the same name across data sets, and 22.5% of those names are considered rare by our threshold. In our study, we also examine the accuracy of our method and show how real names can be extracted from account usernames, and compared in a similar manner.

Orren, Miquette J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable AI for Multivariate Time Series Pattern Exploration: Latent Space Visual Analytics With Temporal Fusion Transformer and Variational Autoencoders in Power Grid Event Diagnosis

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns’ similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and assess the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by VAE, which have been utilized in prior studies for latent space cartography and used as a benchmark in this study, and the emerging TFT architecture under various configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Explainable AI↗
DOE OSTI2018

GrammarViz 3.0: Interactive Discovery of Variable-Length Time Series Patterns

The problems of recurrent and anomalous pattern discovery in time series, e.g., motifs and discords, respectively, have received a lot of attention from researchers in the past decade. However, since the pattern search space is usually intractable, most existing detection algorithms require that the patterns have discriminative characteristics and have its length known in advance and provided as input, which is an unreasonable requirement for many real-world problems. In addition, patterns of similar structure, but of different lengths may co-exist in a time series. In order to address these issues, we have developed algorithms for variable-length time series pattern discovery that are based on symbolic discretization and grammar inference—two techniques whose combination enables the structured reduction of the search space and discovery of the candidate patterns in linear time. In this work, we present GrammarViz 3.0—a software package that provides implementations of proposed algorithms and graphical user interface for interactive variable-length time series pattern discovery. The current version of the software provides an alternative grammar inference algorithm that improves the time series motif discovery workflow, and introduces an experimental procedure for automated discretization parameter selection that builds upon the minimum cardinality maximum cover principle and aids the time series recurrent and anomalous pattern discovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Anomaly Detection in Neural Network Security and SRF Cavities

This dissertation explores the development and deployment of machine learning approaches to address critical challenges in anomaly detection across two distinct domains: neural network security in federated learning settings and cavity behavior analysis in particle accelerator operations at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Virginia. Anomaly detection identifies deviations from expected patterns, safeguarding systems in cybersecurity, industry, and research against malicious activities and failures. This dissertation demonstrates how our machine learning approaches enhance detection accuracy and efficiency in both neural network security and industrial applications. First, we investigate vulnerabilities in deep neural networks deployed in federated learning. Although federated learning preserves user privacy by training models locally, it remains vulnerable to backdoor attacks, in which malicious participants embed hidden triggers that induce targeted misbehavior. We propose a self-supervised contrastive learning framework to detect and mitigate such backdoor attacks. In our experiments, this method achieves higher detection accuracy and lower false positive rates than existing defenses, while operating without access to local model updates or original training data and thus preserving the privacy guarantees of the federated setting. Second, we address the operational reliability of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). Our research leverages an unsupervised learning approach, combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering, to identify anomalous behaviors in SRF cavities. Our method detects subtle anomalous behavior by analyzing SRF signal data. This knowledge allows for the early detection and resolution of potential faults, significantly improving the efficiency and reliability of operations. Third, we extend these insights to time-series anomaly detection more broadly. We design a contrastive-learning based model tailored to increasingly dynamic environments and academic research. This model improves detection accuracy in settings that require real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance. Our research underscores the broader applicability and impact of advanced machine learning techniques in anomaly detection. By extracting meaningful patterns from complex data, machine learning can significantly enhance security in distributed neural networks and improve the efficiency of particle accelerator operations. This dissertation serves as a stepping stone for future investigations into the vast possibilities of anomaly detection, inspiring further exploration and development of machine learning techniques in this field.

Ferguson, Hal [Old Dominion University]↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stellar Obliquity and Magnetic Activity of Planet-hosting Stars and Eclipsing Binaries Based on Transit Chord Correlation

The light curve of an eclipsing system shows anomalies whenever the eclipsing body passes in front of active regions on the eclipsed star. In some cases, the pattern of anomalies can be used to determine the obliquity Ψ of the eclipsed star. Here we present a method for detecting and analyzing these patterns, based on a statistical test for correlations between the anomalies observed in a sequence of eclipses. Compared to previous methods, ours makes fewer assumptions and is easier to automate. We apply it to a sample of 64 stars with transiting planets and 24 eclipsing binaries for which precise space-based data are available, and for which there was either some indication of flux anomalies or a previously reported obliquity measurement. We were able to determine obliquities for 10 stars with hot Jupiters. In particular we found Ψ ≲ 10° for Kepler-45, which is only the second M dwarf with a measured obliquity. The other eight cases are G and K stars with low obliquities. Among the eclipsing binaries, we were able to determine obliquities in eight cases, all of which are consistent with zero. Our results also reveal some common patterns of stellar activity for magnetically active G and K stars, including persistently active longitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Discovery of a metal-poor field giant with a globular cluster second-generation abundance pattern

We report on the detection, from observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment spectroscopic survey, of a metal-poor ([Fe/H] = −1.3 dex) field giant star with an extreme Mg–Al abundance ratio ([Mg/Fe] = −0.31 dex; [Al/Fe] = 1.49 dex). Such low Mg/Al ratios are seen only among the second-generation population of globular clusters (GCs) and are not present among Galactic disk field stars. The light-element abundances of this star, 2M16011638-1201525, suggest that it could have been born in a GC. We explore several origin scenarios, studying the orbit of the star in particular to check the probability of its being kinematically related to known GCs. We performed simple orbital integrations assuming the estimated distance of 2M16011638-1201525 and the available six-dimensional phase-space coordinates of 63 GCs, looking for close encounters in the past with a minimum distance approach within the tidal radius of each cluster. We found a very low probability that 2M16011638-1201525 was ejected from most GCs; however, we note that the best progenitor candidate to host this star is GC ω Centauri (NGC 5139). Our dynamical investigation demonstrates that 2M16011638-1201525 reaches a distance |Z{sub max}|<3 kpc from the Galactic plane and minimum and maximum approaches to the Galactic center of R {sub min} < 0.62 kpc and R {sub max} < 7.26 kpc in an eccentric (e ∼ 0.53) and retrograde orbit. Since the extreme chemical anomaly of 2M16011638-1201525 has also been observed in halo field stars, this object could also be considered a halo contaminant, likely to have been ejected into the Milky Way disk from the halo. We conclude that 2M16011638-20152 is also kinematically consistent with the disk but chemically consistent with halo field stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

In vivo visualization method by absolute blood flow velocity based on speckle and fringe pattern using two-beam multipoint laser Doppler velocimetry

Two-beam multipoint laser Doppler velocimetry (two-beam MLDV) is a non-invasive imaging technique able to provide an image of two-dimensional blood flow and has potential for observing cancer as previously demonstrated in a mouse model. In two-beam MLDV, the blood flow velocity can be estimated from red blood cells passing through a fringe pattern generated in the skin. The fringe pattern is created at the intersection of two beams in conventional LDV and two-beam MLDV. Being able to choose the depth position is an advantage of two-beam MLDV, and the position of a blood vessel can be identified in a three-dimensional space using this technique. Initially, we observed the fringe pattern in the skin, and the undeveloped or developed speckle pattern generated in a deeper position of the skin. The validity of the absolute velocity value detected by two-beam MLDV was verified while changing the number of layers of skin around a transparent flow channel. The absolute velocity value independent of direction was detected using the developed speckle pattern, which is created by the skin construct and two beams in the flow channel. Finally, we showed the relationship between the signal intensity and the fringe pattern, undeveloped speckle, or developed speckle pattern based on the skin depth. The Doppler signals were not detected at deeper positions in the skin, which qualitatively indicates the depth limit for two-beam MLDV.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

A data analytical approach for assessing the efficacy of Operational Technology active defenses against insider threats

In recent years, the need for Operational Technology (OT) defenses has been recognized, serving as an additional line of defense when Information Technology (IT) defenses are bypassed. This is no longer considered an uncommon possibility when dealing with advanced persistent threat (APT) actors expected to be state-sponsored and receiving insider assistance. In these extreme adversarial situations, OT defenses aim to provide another layer of defense for the system, introduced directly at the physical process level, as described by the sensors data, the system model, and control actions. Just like IT defenses, two schools of thought, i.e., passive and active defenses, have emerged to address this challenge. In active defenses, representing the focus of this paper, known signatures, synthesized based on the system's unique characteristics, are inserted into the system. In contradistinction, passive methods rely solely on observing system behavior in search of patterns of normal behavior with deviations thereof representing abnormal behavior. In their most sophisticated implementations, both passive and active defenses rely on the use of data analytics to identify the patterns and synthesize the observed and/or inserted signatures. Past research has shown that passive defenses may be bypassed by APT actors relying on data analytics and their intimate knowledge of the system to evade detection by respecting the patterns identified by the defenders. Here this manuscript explores the use of active defenses under the assumption that the attacker has privileged access to the system, including access to the system's model and sensors data. Specifically, this manuscript assesses the ability of active defenses to remain invisible to the attackers, and discusses the associated challenges that must be addressed to ensure their resiliency against APT actors.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Listening for the Landing: Seismic Detections of Perseverance's Arrival at Mars With InSight

The entry, descent, and landing (EDL) sequence of NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover will act as a seismic source of known temporal and spatial localization. We evaluate whether the signals produced by this event will be detectable by the InSight lander (3,452 km away), comparing expected signal amplitudes to noise levels at the instrument. Modeling is undertaken to predict the propagation of the acoustic signal (purely in the atmosphere), the seismoacoustic signal (atmosphere-to-ground coupled), and the elastodynamic seismic signal (in the ground only). Our results suggest that the acoustic and seismoacoustic signals, produced by the atmospheric shock wave from the EDL, are unlikely to be detectable due to the pattern of winds in the martian atmosphere and the weak air-to-ground coupling, respectively. However, the elastodynamic seismic signal produced by the impact of the spacecraft's cruise balance masses on the surface may be detected by InSight. The upper and lower bounds on predicted ground velocity at InSight are 2.0 × 10 -14 and 1.3 × 10 -10 m s -1 . The upper value is above the noise floor at the time of landing 40% of the time on average. The large range of possible values reflects uncertainties in the current understanding of impact-generated seismic waves and their subsequent propagation and attenuation through Mars. Uncertainty in the detectability also stems from the indeterminate instrument noise level at the time of this future event. A positive detection would be of enormous value in constraining the seismic properties of Mars, and in improving our understanding of impact-generated seismic waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-72: A Clinical Usable Integrated Contouring Quality Evaluation Software for Radiotherapy

Purpose: To introduce the Auto Contour Evaluation (ACE) software, which is the clinical usable, user friendly, efficient and all-in-one toolbox for automatically identify common contouring errors in radiotherapy treatment planning using supervised machine learning techniques. Methods: ACE is developed with C# using Microsoft .Net framework and Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF) for elegant GUI design and smooth GUI transition animations through the integration of graphics engines and high dots per inch (DPI) settings on modern high resolution monitors. The industrial standard software design pattern, Model-View-ViewModel (MVVM) pattern, is chosen to be the major architecture of ACE for neat coding structure, deep modularization, easy maintainability and seamless communication with other clinical software. ACE consists of 1) a patient data importing module integrated with clinical patient database server, 2) a 2D DICOM image and RT structure simultaneously displaying module, 3) a 3D RT structure visualization module using Visualization Toolkit or VTK library and 4) a contour evaluation module using supervised pattern recognition algorithms to detect contouring errors and display detection results. ACE relies on supervised learning algorithms to handle all image processing and data processing jobs. Implementations of related algorithms are powered by Accord.Net scientific computing library for better efficiency and effectiveness. Results: ACE can take patient’s CT images and RT structures from commercial treatment planning software via direct user input or from patients’ database. All functionalities including 2D and 3D image visualization and RT contours error detection have been demonstrated with real clinical patient cases. Conclusion: ACE implements supervised learning algorithms and combines image processing and graphical visualization modules for RT contours verification. ACE has great potential for automated radiotherapy contouring quality verification. Structured with MVVM pattern, it is highly maintainable and extensible, and support smooth connections with other clinical software tools.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Visual Atlas on Strategic Trade

Strategic trade concerns global trade flows of items with strategic military value. Items include goods with exclusive military use, but also dual-use items that can have both military and civil uses. Many countries require licenses for trade in strategic items as a measure of non-proliferation. For example, items listed for trade control by multilateral export control arrangements, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), typically are considered strategic goods. Analysts and officials involved in strategic trade control often lack quantitative global understanding of relevant trade patterns that would help them focus control and enforcement efforts, select companies for outreach and audit, target transactions for verification and inspection, and assess the potential economic impact of trade control policies. Many are unaware of available open source data on international trade that can inform these issues. Many do not know how to make use of such data or lack the tools necessary to do so. A book of charts dubbed a ‘Strategic Trade Atlas’ was developed to illustrate global trade flows of strategic goods and raise awareness of the availability and utility of open source trade data. The Atlas was prepared for the World Customs Organization (WCO) and its Member States to support their planning and execution of Strategic Trade Control Enforcement (STCE) operations. It offers macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the WCO with commodities described in its STCE Implementation Guide. While these HS codes are understood to also encompass many non-strategic items, they nevertheless provide a good overview of potentially strategic trade flows. These include HS codes covering nuclear and nuclear-related commodities listed by the NSG, such as uranium, heavy water, graphite, carbon fiber, nickel powder, beryllium, aluminum tubes, vacuum pumps, valves, machine tools, cameras, and many others. The Atlas uses trade data from the Base pour l’Analyse du Commerce International (BACI), a statistical elaboration of public UN Comtrade data. BACI data reconciles trade flows, taking into account asymmetries in import and export trade valuation. The data visualization approach facilitates rapid sense making, pattern recognition, and anomaly detection. Country-based profiles summarize vast amounts of data into readily understandable graphical representations of each country’s primary strategic imports and exports and their main trading partners. Commodity-based profiles provide a global view of major exporters, importers, and trade patterns for each commodity. These insights can inform the risk management approach employed by customs to allocate enforcement and compliance efforts.

customs controls↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Contrast Pattern Projection To Enable Background Oriented Schlieren Based Air Leak Detection Through Any Interior Or Exterior Building Surface

Air leakage in buildings wastes an estimated 4 quads of energy per year in the United States. Finding and sealing leakage sites is critical in existing buildings. Previous work has shown that background oriented Schlieren (BOS) imaging can be used to visualize air leakage but requires the leak to exit through a high contrast surface like a brick wall. To remedy this, different techniques of projecting various high contrast patterns on low contrast building surfaces like interior gypsum walls or vinyl siding were investigated. For each technique, the background quality was measured and compared to an ideal printed random dot background. The background quality metrics were correlated with the measured visualization metrics to understand which metrics are most important for maximizing air leak visualization performance. In this work, leakage visualization performance is presented for these various projected backgrounds with an aim to expand the building surfaces suitable for the BOS leak detector.

Jatana, Gurneesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000288903225)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗