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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Residential Demand Flexibility: Modeling Occupant Behavior using Sociodemographic Predictors

Demand flexibility (DF) has the potential to increase the saturation of renewables in the grid and reduce operating costs for both utilities and customers. However, less than 8% of U.S. residential electric customers are enrolled in DF programs. A major research gap on this topic is an uneven understanding of behavioral drivers of electricity use and DF program participation at the household level. In this study, we employ machine learning models to predict residential occupant behavior in activities relevant to DF. We model occupants' extensive decisions (i.e., choice of action) and intensive behaviors (i.e., amount of time spent) during peak and off-peak time periods using the publicly available American Time Use Survey, which includes activities data for approximately 200,000 respondents. In our machine learning models, predictions for both extensive and intensive behavior fell within a +/-20% error margin at the aggregate level. We identify 13 key sociodemographic predictors of DF-related intensive behavior using LASSO inference and beta coefficient ranking. However, these top predictors differ by activity, suggesting potential scope for differential user targeting for DF events and technologies during program design. This work also contributes to understanding when and who might adopt these DF technologies based on their daily routine activities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal operation of multi-plant steam district heating systems for enhanced efficiency and sustainability

Despite their crucial role in supplying heat and power to universities, industries, and healthcare facilities, many steam-based district heating systems rely on outdated control methods. Among these, multi-central plant districts are particularly challenging due to the complexities of coordinating multiple plants, optimizing load distributions, and managing system downtime. In response, new operational strategies are developed to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of steam districts while utilizing existing resources. These strategies include reducing plant operational pressure without compromising the reliable supply to buildings and optimizing load allocation across multiple plants. The load allocation considers boiler part-load efficiency, runtime, network losses, and building pressure set points, and is compared with traditional multi-boiler controls. To support this exploration, new dynamic Modelica models are developed. In addition, methods to reduce modeling complexities are incorporated, enhancing their suitability for practical applications. A holistic district-wide analysis using a real university case study demonstrates a 4.7% fuel savings by lowering boiler operational pressure from 900 kPa to 600 kPa, along with a 13.3% reduction in condensation losses across the distribution network. Furthermore, the load allocation approach results in a 13.1% reduction in fuel consumption during peak winter periods and 15.3% during shoulder periods, with corresponding decreases in carbon emissions and fuel costs. This approach can also save maintenance costs by reducing the boiler runtime by 49.6%. In conclusion, this research underscores the benefits of retrofitting aging steam district heating systems, offering immediate operational improvements by enhancing efficiency, meeting regulatory compliance, and extending infrastructure lifespans while delaying costly overhauls.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heat pump water heater enhanced with phase change materials thermal energy storage: Modeling study

A promising solution to improve the first hour rating (FHR) of a heat pump water heater (HPWH) involves employing a secondary tank which contains phase change material (PCM) capsules. To better understand the influence of PCM thermal storage on the HPWH operational performance, a dynamic model was developed to simulate and analyze the behavior of a newly developed HPWH technology that incorporates PCM storage into a standard HPWH to optimize key parameters such as the uniform energy factor and FHR. Mathematical models of several key components of the proposed HPWH-PCM integrated thermal energy storage (TES) system, e.g., water heater tank, PCM TES tank, evaporator, compressor, and expansion valve, have been elaborated. Also, a model-based control co-simulation platform was developed to integrate a embed PCM storage HPWH dynamic model with a control model for better supporting control design, analysis, verification, and validation. The model accuracy has been validated through comparing simulation results with lab test results, with a mean average percentage error of <5.5% for most of the selected performance variables. In addition, using the developed co-simulation platform, the demand response control strategy was studied to evaluate the load flexibility of the combined HPWH-PCM storage system by shifting system power usage to outside of the 3.5 h peak load period.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deciphering the source of primary biological aerosol particles: a pollen case study

Primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) are microscopic solids suspended in the atmosphere emitted by biological systems and play critical roles in the atmosphere and at the atmosphere-biosphere interface, impacting human health, climate, and the ecosystem function. Understanding the sources of PBAPs is necessary to decipher the mechanistic interactions between aerosols, climate, and distinct ecosystem components. However, the detection of specific PBAPs in complex ambient aerosol samples is challenging. We performed metabolomics analyses of pollen from three pollinating tree species and ambient samples collected during the peak pollination period of each species. Random Forest and sPLS-DA machine learning methods were employed to evaluate whether metabolic signatures of ambient samples can reveal the source of the main pollen particles present in the atmosphere. Our results suggest that atmospheric eco-metabolomics techniques combined with sophisticated statistical methods can decipher the origin of abundant PBAPs from complex ambient samples. Developing complete libraries containing high-resolution metabolomic fingerprints of the major PBAPs present in the atmosphere would significantly advance future research to accurately understand the role of PBAPs in the atmosphere, ecosystems and human health.

Rivas-Ubach, Albert↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of First-Order Gratings in Silicon Photonic Waveguides

A simple thin film effective index analysis for first order gratings in Si photonic waveguides is shown to provide highly accurate results for reflected and transmitted power spectrums as long as the waveguide remains single mode and non-radiating. A cover layer can be added to the grating region of a Si photonic waveguide to increase the strength of the grating, modify transition losses from the input waveguide to the grating waveguide region, and/or modify the width of the reflectivity spectrum. For a given grating period, the peak reflection and spectral width of the reflectivity decrease as the duty cycle is decreased or increased from ~50%. For both radiating and multimode structures, the coupling between all modes, power radiated towards the superstrate (upwards), power radiated downwards (substrate) and transmitted power analyzed by Floquet-Bloch, Eigenmode Expansion and Finite Difference Time Domain methods show excellent agreement. Coupling coefficients calculated using analytic formulas are shown to be accurate only for shallow grating depths.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Integration of Marine Energy into Microgrids - Wave Resource Assessment

This submission has wave resource assessments which were conducted for six locations based on IEC requirements using the DOE WPTO Hindcast data and MHKiT. The locations are chosen to provide varying wave climates and include PacWave South, OR; Wave Energy Testing Site (WETS), HI; Molokai, HI; St. Paul, AK; Yakutat, Ak; and Sebastion, FL. It includes the data gathered and the resulting report. This submission also includes a link to Hindcast dataset and some relevant software.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oceanographic Conditions. 2007 - 2040. North Slope Alaska.

Complete representations of oceanographic conditions require spatial and temporal information about the significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), wind speed, wind direction, wave direction, water level, salinity, and temperature. This data develops location-independent typologies to reduce the number of boundary conditions needed to assess nearshore oceanographic environments in both a Historical (2007-2019) and Future (2020-2040) timespan along the Alaskan North Slope. Wave information for both time spans were generated from WaveWatch III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE simulations forced by wind conditions from reanalysis data (e.g., ASRv2 and ERA5) for the historical simulations while projected conditions were obtained from downscaled GFDL-CM3 forced under RCP8.5 conditions. Salinity was generated from GOFS 3.1 for the years between 2008-2015 and skin temperature of the ocean was obtained from ASRv2 reanalysis data for the years between 2007-2016. To identify generalized oceanographic typologies, K-means clustering was applied to the energy-weighted joint-probability distribution of Hs and Tp at six sites along the North Slope of Alaska. Distributions of wave and wind direction, wind speed, and water level associated with locaiton-indepndent centroids were assigned single values to describe a reduced order, typological rendition of offshore oceanographic conditions. These final typologies and their constituent data are provided here and can be used to evaluate the change in ocean energy over the next two decades in response to climate change and provide insight into expected consequences such as coastal erosion and flooding. A full assessment of the findings and techniques developed can be found in: Eymold, W.K., Flanary, C., Erikson, L., Nederhoff, K., Chartrand, C.C., Jones, C., Kasper, J., and Bull, D.L. Typological Representation of the Offshore Oceanographic Environment along the Alaskan North Slope. Continental Shelf Research (2022). 10.1016/j.csr.2022.104795

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wastewater Disposal Has Not Significantly Altered the Regional Stress State in Southern Kansas

Wastewater disposal is primarily responsible for the increased seismicity rate since ~2013 in southern Kansas. Previous work that used shear-wave splitting (SWS) in southern Kansas interpreted an ~90° temporal rotation in the fast polarization direction and attributed it to increased pore pressures resulting from fluid injection. However, this interpreted rotation coincided with a change in the stations used to make the SWS measurements. We investigate the temporal variability of fast azimuths in southern Kansas by making SWS measurements on earthquake families with similar source–receiver paths recorded on a stable local seismic network. We select high-quality SWS measurements by investigating the stability of results across 65 different frequency bands between 0.5 and 15 Hz. We find that the fast polarization direction in southern Kansas is relatively constant with an average east-northeast (~N79°E) orientation between 2014 and 2017. Our fast polarization measurements are primarily a reflection of the maximum principal horizontal stress direction (SHmax). We observe a slight spatial change in SHmax to the northeast (~N55°E) near the Nemaha ridge in Oklahoma. However, we do not observe any significant temporal rotation of SHmax or variation in delay time (i.e., crack density) in southern Kansas, contrary to the earlier study. The previously interpreted ~90° rotation may either be a reflection of a very local stress change or a misinterpretation of SWS results potentially due to the use of inconsistent source–receiver paths. Our SWS measurements cover the period of peak wastewater disposal and seismicity rates and suggest an absence of significant temporal rotations in the local anisotropy and stress orientations associated with wastewater disposal.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-Efficiency, Medium-Voltage-Input, Solid-State-Transformer-Based 400-kW/1000V/400A Extreme Fast Charger for Electric Vehicles

Range anxiety and long battery charging time continue to be critical challenges to mass adaptation of EVs. A major identified gap to wider adoption of BEVs is the ability and availability to refuel quickly or to fast charge. Studies have shown that in areas where drivers have access to 50-kW or 120-kW fast charge stations, annual electric vehicle (EV) miles traveled (i.e., eVMT) increased by over 25%, even in cases where fast charging was used for 1% to 5% of total charging events. Charge stations of higher power not only alleviate the “range anxiety” and reduce the driver’s waiting time, but also requires less investment. Michigan Energy Office completed a study in early 2019 titled “Electric Vehicle Charger Placement Optimization in Michigan: Phase I – Highways”. This study finds a system with 150kW chargers, though more expensive individually, actually has lower total system cost when compared to a 50kW charging system when serving the same battery size EV. To be truly competitive to the ICEV refueling experience, even higher power stations are necessary. However, high power charge stations would create large power draws from the grid. If this occurs during peak demand periods, grid capacity could be overloaded. This problem needs to be addressed to reduce the impact on the electric utility infrastructure. The main goal of this project is to develop a 400-kW/400-A XFC system targeting total efficiency of 96.5 percent from the MVAC grid to a vehicle. The novel SST power cell topology, combined with a new silicon carbide (SiC) MOSFET device, enables a 3.5 percent improvement in system efficiency, a 50-percent smaller equipment footprint, and four times less weight than today’s DCFC systems. The SST technology would directly utilize MVAC at 4.8-kV or 13.2-kV. This would eliminate the line frequency transformer (LFT), which steps down medium-voltage AC to 3-Phase 480-V line-to-line voltage in current DCFC systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clean Energy Technology Applications on US Mine Land: Technical Analysis

As the United States transitions toward a clean energy economy, an opportunity exists for redeveloping the more than 17,000 mine land sites located across the nation with clean energy technologies, which have a combined potential for generating more than 85 GW of clean electricity. This report provides an overview of the potential of demonstrating and deploying clean energy projects on current and former mine land. Clean energy project refers to a project that demonstrates one or more of the following technologies: solar; microgrids; geothermal; direct air capture; fossil-fueled electricity generation with carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration; energy storage, including pumped storage hydropower and compressed air energy storage; and advanced nuclear technologies. The report discusses the following technologies and their potential for creating jobs and generating tax revenue that would result in direct and indirect benefits to the local economy: Solar photovoltaics (PV) is being developed on current and former mine land in various parts of the world, including the United States. This approach is attractive because it requires limited infrastructure investment and would utilize the bare surfaces of mines and tailing ponds. Solar resource availability may be greater in the southern regions, including the Interior and Appalachian Basins and the southwestern United States. However, since some mine land sites include areas of significant change in elevation, the deployment of PV on mine land may require sophisticated planning to account for shading and irradiance, or may require regrading of the areas. PV does not create significant environmental risks and generally does not face public resistance; Geothermal systems are often spatially and genetically associated with ore deposits, and in some cases, they have been discovered while in search for epithermal mineral resources. Numerous diverse geothermal applications have been employed at mine land around the world, including power generation, mineral extraction from geothermal brines, process heating, direct use for other mining operations, and direct use for non-mining operations and subsurface energy storage, including geothermal heat pumps. Case studies highlighting these applications provide key lessons relating to identifying drivers and barriers to geothermal resource deployment and can be used to create screening tools for identifying the types and locations of mine land most amenable to utilizing geothermal resources; Carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration technologies include direct air capture (DAC) and enhanced weathering. DAC technologies include air contactors, regeneration systems, and CO 2 compression systems. Captured CO 2 can be converted to valuable feedstocks or possibly injected into abandoned subsurface mines where it would be absorbed by alkaline rock waste and mine tailings or by the porous minerals along the walls of the mine. DAC systems can be coupled with energy sources such as wind, solar, grid, or geothermal. Many DAC systems require a source of water or steam; however, some are expected to be net producers of water. Local impacts of DAC systems are expected to be low, and are related to land footprint, material disposal, and upstream impacts of energy and material production; Compressed air energy storage is an established energy storage technology in salt caverns. It has the potential for implementation in underground mines by pressurizing and storing a large amount of air using electrical compressors when excess electricity is available. When a need for discharge emerges, the air is used to spin turbines and produce the necessary volume of electricity. Abandoned or unused mine openings, including shafts, adits, access tunnels, and mined workings of any orientation, offer potential for vast amounts of compressed air energy storage if the site characteristics meet operational requirements; Pumped hydropower storage can be implemented in surface and subsurface mines. In surface mine applications, both reservoirs may be located in a mine pit or artificial reservoirs made of excavated materials. In subsurface mines, the lower reservoir may be implemented by waterproofing and flooding mine shafts and tunnels. The water is then pumped from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir during periods of low load and high production, and it is discharged through the turbines during periods of peak demand. The potential environmental damages associated with acidity of mine water or the presence of toxic chemicals incentivizes the development of closed-loop technologies, in which water circulates inside the pumped hydropower facility without being discharged into the external water basins; Advanced nuclear energy technologies include small modular reactors, which can be deployed locally to produce electricity and heat. Such units require seismic stability and a supply of cooling water, but population constraints may exist in some areas. Therefore, remote mine land could represent an optimal location for siting advanced nuclear energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (FY 2020) (Rev. 2)

This document provides an updated Hanford Site composite analysis (CA). A Hanford Site CA was prepared and issued in 1998 (PNNL-11800) with an addendum provided in 2002 (PNNL-11800 Addendum 1). The CA was approved in 2002 (Frei, 2002) and has been maintained (DOE/RL-2000-29 and subsequent revisions) to support low-level waste disposal performance assessments (PAs) and disposal authorizations for facilities at the Hanford Site, including the following: Continued operation of the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) and the 200 East and 200 West Low-Level Burial Grounds; Construction of the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF); Forthcoming closure of tank residual waste systems such as Waste Management Area (WMA) C. The CA maintenance program resulted in a determination in 2015 (DOE/RL-2015-66) that the Hanford Site CA needed an update for the following reasons: While the initial Hanford Site CA has been maintained since 2001, the accumulation of basis changes reported in the annual summary reports over the succeeding 14 years merit evaluation in an updated analysis; The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Headquarters requested in a memorandum in 2015 (Gilbertson and Marcinowski, 2015) that “as soon as the relevant PAs are complete, the CA will be revised to account for all of the new information.” This updated Hanford Site CA accounts for the following new information: 1. Inclusion of a detailed Hanford Site baseline disposition that projects remedial activities through site closure. There have been significant changes through decision making in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) process that were not available when the original CA was produced; 2. Inclusion of an updated inventory basis, new modeling capabilities, and new decisions reached in the associated record of decision (ROD) that was provided by issuance of DOE/EIS-0391 in fiscal year (FY) 2013. Development of a Hanford Site groundwater model from the baseline provided in a technical transfer of models for the Final Tank Closure and Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0391) commenced in FY 2014 and resulted in the plateau-to-river (P2R) groundwater flow model that is used in this updated Hanford Site CA; 3. Accounting for pump and treat systems, which were not evaluated in the initial CA. Pump and treat systems have had significant impact on groundwater flow system behavior, contaminant transport, and contaminant removal from Hanford Site groundwater. This process is accounted for in the use of the P2R model for this updated Hanford Site CA; 4. Inclusion of water-level data collected since the initial CA was completed. Data collected as the unconfined aquifer water levels continue to recede since the cessation of large liquid discharges in the late 1990s have led to marked improvement in understanding of the flow system for future conditions, particularly regarding northward flow potential in the critical Gable Gap area. The calibration in the latest version of the P2R model accounts for this information; 5. Inclusion of results from the revised ERDF PA completed in 2013 (WCH-5209) that account for updated inventory and expansion of the ERDF facility to about twice the size that was evaluated in the original CA; 6. Use of updated geoframeworks to provide the structural basis for numerical fate and transport models in the groundwater pathway of this updated CA. The geologic basis for groundwater models has continued to improve with additional data collection and interpretation with the creation and maintenance of the Hanford South Geoframework and the Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework tools; 7. Incorporation of updated tank residual inventory estimates. Tank residual inventory estimates have improved with the incorporation of tank retrieval inventory data for those tanks that have completed retrieval. The CA inventory data package includes this updated information; 8. Incorporation of WMA C PA results. Two additional PAs for tank farm closure decisions are in preparation during the period required to prepare an updated Hanford Site CA: WMA C (FY 2016) and WMA A-AX (in preparation). The WMA C PA results are incorporated into the updated Hanford Site CA, and its grouted residuals model is used as the basis for a release model to account for the other tank farm systems modeling in this updated CA; 9. An update to the IDF PA was submitted in FY 2017 and has been reviewed and approved. The results of the IDF PA are incorporated into this updated CA; 10. Updated risk assessment scenarios. The risk assessment scenarios currently in use for Hanford Site CERCLA and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) analyses differ from those evaluated in the initial Hanford Site CA. The representative person exposure scenario evaluated in this updated Hanford Site CA is consistent with recent PAs and CERCLA and RCRA analyses as the Hanford Site. This updated Hanford Site CA provides the following: A comparison of the updated Hanford Site CA all-pathway dose results with the performance measures during the compliance period, which is assumed to begin with site closure in calendar 2070 with the last scheduled disposal action and continue for 1,000 years postclosure (to calendar year 3069); A comparison of Hanford Site CA all-pathway dose results with the performance measures during the postcompliance period to address potential peaks beyond the compliance period. This is accomplished by evaluating dose in the period for 9,000 years following the compliance period (i.e., from calendar year 3070 to 12070).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis of Greenfield Geothermal Hybrid Power Plants using a Solar or Natural Gas Steam Topping Cycle

The relatively low generation costs associated with wind, solar PV, and natural gas power plants make it challenging for geothermal power plants to produce and sell the power that has the reliability and sustainability characteristics that are greatly needed in US power markets. This is especially true for geothermal resources with low to medium temperatures, which results in relatively low thermal efficiency and generation costs that are higher than those for wind, solar PV, and natural gas. This analysis evaluates solar thermal- and natural gas combustion waste heat recovery-based topping cycle hybridization of geothermal binary power plants. This approach provides several benefits that may allow geothermal power plants to generate power at more competitive costs. First, the addition of solar thermal energy or natural gas combustion waste heat input to a geothermal power plant provides additional heat input that can be converted to electrical power. Second, the temperature level of the heat obtained from concentrating solar collectors or natural gas combustion exhaust is higher than that of geothermal heat, which provides opportunities for improving the efficiency of the conversion of thermal energy to electrical power. Third, the ease with which solar thermal systems integrate with energy storage and the flexibility of natural gas means power generation can occur during peak demand periods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis of Greenfield Geothermal Hybrid Power Plants using a Solar or Natural Gas Steam Topping Cycle

The relatively low generation costs associated with wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and natural-gas power plants make it challenging for geothermal power plants to produce and sell the power that has the reliability and sustainability characteristics that are greatly needed in U.S. power markets. This is especially true for geothermal resources with low-to-medium temperatures, which results in relatively low-thermal efficiency and generation costs that are higher than those for wind, solar PV, and natural gas. This analysis evaluates solar thermal- and natural-gas combustion waste heat recovery-based topping cycle hybridization of geothermal binary power plants. This approach provides several benefits that may allow geothermal power plants to generate power at more competitive costs. First, the addition of solar thermal energy or natural-gas combustion waste heat input to a geothermal power plant provides additional heat input that can be converted to electrical power. Second, the temperature level of the heat obtained from concentrating solar collectors or natural-gas combustion exhaust is higher than that of geothermal heat, which provides opportunities for improving the efficiency of the conversion of thermal energy to electrical power. Third, the ease with which solar thermal systems integrate with energy storage and the flexibility of natural gas means power generation can occur during peak demand periods. The hybrid cycles are compared to equivalently sized, co-located, independent geothermal, concentrating solar, and/or natural-gas power plants. The hybrid cycle tends to produce slightly more power than the standalone plants combined. However, the hybrid plant Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is slightly higher than the LCOE of the combined standalone power plants for each of the case study locations investigated. Using the steam-topping cycle, organic Rankine cycle (ORC)-bottoming cycle hybrid plant design to combine a solar thermal resource and low- temperature geothermal resource (<120 degrees C) leads to a hybrid plant with a lower LCOE than a standalone geothermal-only system. Thus, hybrid plants may enable the economic development of geothermal resources in locations with low geothermal resource temperatures. However, in areas with higher geothermal resource temperatures (>120 degrees C), the geothermal-only plant has a lower LCOE than the hybrid cycle and thus could be developed without the need for solar heat addition. iv A geothermal-natural-gas reciprocating engine hybrid plant was evaluated for an Elk Hills, California case study location. The Elk Hills case study analysis indicates that when the natural-gas engine operates for more than 12 hours per day the hybrid plant can produce power at an LCOE lower than a standalone geothermal plant, and comparable to that of the standalone natural-gas reciprocating engine, while also reducing the carbon intensity of the power generated relative to the standalone natural-gas engine. This may represent a scenario in which the hybrid plant provides an opportunity for the deployment of a low-temperature geothermal resource that otherwise may have an LCOE too high to develop and operate as a standalone resource, while also reducing the carbon intensity of natural-gas generation sources. A "triple-hybrid" plant that combines natural gas, solar thermal, thermal energy storage, and geothermal was also investigated. A natural-gas combustion turbine (NGCT) is added to the geothermal-solar hybrid such that the hot exhaust gas from the gas turbine provides an alternative source of heat to the steam turbine of the hybrid cycle. Analysis results suggest that the triple-hybrid plant has a significantly higher energy generation and revenue than a standalone NGCT or the original geothermal-solar hybrid. The triple-hybrid design benefits most from using a smaller solar field so that the solar energy can be dispatched at the most valuable times available. The triple-hybrid plant also has a lower LCOE than the standalone NGCT. The triple-hybrid plant was evaluated making simple assumptions about the dispatch profile of the gas cycle, and more nuanced and realistic dispatching schedules should be analyzed in future work.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Natural and Human Factors on a Hydrological System in Zhangweinan Canal Basin

Drought is a water deficit state caused by large-scale climate change that cannot be avoided by a water resource management system. Water scarcity refers to the unsustainable utilization of water resources over a long time, which is the result of water management policies. However, water deficits caused by drought and water scarcity often occur simultaneously and are indistinguishable. This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can quantitatively distinguish natural factors (drought) from human factors (water scarcity) in a hydrological system. The simulation was applied to the Zhangweinan Canal Basin, based on the runoff sequences from 1950 to 2004. The results show that the runoff curve number, soil depth, soil available water, soil evaporation compensation coefficient, base runoff α coefficient and the maximum canopy interception have the highest sensitivity to runoff, and that the calibrated and validated SWAT model can effectively simulate the runoff process in the Zhangweinan Canal Basin and similar areas. Abrupt changes in human activities in 1975 and water scarcity led to the disappearance of the summer peak runoff period in both wet and dry years. Human factors are the main reason for the change in the hydrological system in the study area; the runoff loss caused by human factors is four times that caused by natural factors according to the proposed variable threshold. This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can help water resource managers to distinguish the effects of drought and water scarcity in water-stressed areas and adjust management accordingly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Causal relationships of vegetation productivity with root zone water availability and atmospheric dryness at the catchment scale

Abstract. This study explores the causal relationships between catchment water availability, vapor pressure deficit, and gross primary productivity (GPP) across 341 catchments in the contiguous US. Seasonal climatic, hydrological, and vegetation characteristics were represented using the Horton index, ecological aridity index, evaporative fraction index, and carbon uptake efficiency. Statistical methods, including circularity statistics, correlation analysis, and causality tests, were employed to determine the complex interactions between catchment wetness, atmospheric dryness, and vegetation carbon uptake. The results revealed a maximum lag of 2 months in the intra-annual variability of catchment water supply–productivity and atmospheric water demand–productivity relationships, with hysteresis patterns varying with the catchment's hydrological characteristics. In catchments not permanently under water-limited or energy-limited conditions, vegetation experiences hydrological stress during the peak growing period, coinciding with the highest gross primary productivity and carbon uptake efficiency being out of phase with the Horton index and in phase with the evaporative fraction index. Causality analysis highlights strong temporal continuity in GPP seasonal characteristics, with a cause–effect relationship between catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity spanning a maximum of 2 months. These findings underscore the need for a comprehensive functional framework that integrates catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity to enhance our understanding and predictive capabilities with regard to ecosystem responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

SAS-2 gamma-ray observations of PSR 1747-46

Observations with the SAS-2 high energy ( 35 MeV) gamma-ray telescope show evidence of gamma-ray emission from the radio pulsar PSR 1747-46. When the arrival times of gamma-rays from the region of the pulsar were converted to pulsar phases using the radio period and period derivative, a single peak was found in the phase plot, with a Poisson probability of occurring by chance of .00008. Independently, the time-averaged data for the PSR 1747-46 region show an enhancement over the surrounding region of the sky at the same galactic latitude, with a Poisson probability of chance occurrence of less than .008. The probability that these results are chance is the product of these two probabilities times the number of radio pulsars examined (73). This overall probability is sufficiently small (.00005) to suggest an identification of a new gamma-ray pulsar. In the gamma-ray pulsar plot, the peak falls 0.16 + or - 0.03 period after the radio pulsar peak. This phase shift is, within uncertainties, the same as that observed between the single radio peak and the first of the two gamma-ray peaks seen in the phase plot for PSR-0833-45 (the Vela pulsar).

Thompson, D. J.↗