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At least 127 records · Page 7

Quantitative and interpretable order parameters for phase transitions from persistent homology

Here, we apply modern methods in computational topology to the task of discovering and characterizing phase transitions. As illustrations, we apply our method to four two-dimensional lattice spin models: the Ising, square ice, XY, and fully frustrated XY models. In particular, we use persistent homology, which computes the births and deaths of individual topological features as a coarse-graining scale or sublevel threshold is increased, to summarize multiscale and high-point correlations in a spin configuration. We employ vector representations of this information called persistence images to formulate and perform the statistical task of distinguishing phases. For the models we consider, a simple logistic regression on these images is sufficient to identify the phase transition. Interpretable order parameters are then read from the weights of the regression. This method suffices to identify magnetization, frustration, and vortex-antivortex structure as relevant features for phase transitions in our models. We also define “persistence” critical exponents and study how they are related to those critical exponents usually considered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Boundary-Layer-Coupled and Decoupled Clouds in Global Storm-Resolving Models: Comparisons With the ARM Observations

The accurate representation of interactions between clouds and planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a persistent challenge in climate models, critical for simulating surface energy budget. The emergence of kilometer-grid-scale global storm resolving models (GSRMs) offers the potential for enhanced details of PBL processes in these complex interactions. This study evaluates the representation of PBL-coupled and decoupled clouds in nine GSRM simulations against extensive ground-based observations by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, across six sites encompassing diverse regimes such as marine and continental environments in tropics and midlatitude. By differentiating coupling based on the relative positions between cloud bases and PBL tops, our analysis focuses on the simulation of PBL height, cloud frequency, position and vertical extent. The GSRMs generally exhibit commendable agreements with observed cloud structures and PBL diurnal cycles across different ARM sites. In contrast to the relatively consistent representation of decoupled clouds, discrepancies exist between the simulated and the observed coupled clouds, particularly in areas of intense convection, for example, over tropical rainforests and mountainous regions. These biases are probably associated with the models' tendency to underestimate the boundary layer humidity and the frequency of coupled clouds within different ranges of PBL heights. This study underscores the importance for continuous improvements in the representation of boundary layer and convection within these global kilometer-grid-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic Stratospheric Climates in Chemistry Versus No‐Chemistry Climate Models

Using nine chemistry-climate and eight associated no-chemistry models, we investigate the persistence and timing of cold episodes occurring in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere during the period 1980–2014. We find systematic differences in behavior between members of these model pairs. In a first group of chemistry models whose dynamical configurations mirror their no-chemistry counterparts, we find an increased persistence of such cold polar vortices, such that these cold episodes often start earlier and last longer, relative to the times of occurrence of the lowest temperatures. Also the date of occurrence of the lowest temperatures, both in the Arctic and the Antarctic, is often delayed by 1–3 weeks in chemistry models, versus their no-chemistry counterparts. This behavior exacerbates a widespread problem occurring in most or all models, a delayed occurrence, in the median, of the most anomalously cold day during such cold winters. In a second group of model pairs there are differences beyond just ozone chemistry. In particular, here the chemistry models feature more levels in the stratosphere, a raised model top, and differences in non-orographic gravity wave drag versus their no-chemistry counterparts. Such additional dynamical differences can completely mask the above influence of ozone chemistry. The results point toward a need to retune chemistry-climate models versus their no-chemistry counterparts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flame Chemistry Workshop: a perspective on challenges and strategic actions in combustion experiments and chemical kinetics modeling

Continued progress in the development of predictive models for combustion chemistry—including ignition and flame behavior, species evolution, and combustion system performance—relies on overcoming enduring and emerging challenges in experimental measurements, theoretical formulations, and chemical kinetics mechanism construction. As combustion science continues to coincide with advances in sustainable fuels development, plasma technologies, and automated modeling capabilities, the need for coordinated, community-driven strategies is essential. The Flame Chemistry Workshop (FCWS), held biennially before the International Symposium on Combustion, serves as a dedicated platform to identify, consolidate, and address these challenges in a structured and collaborative manner. This perspective arises from discussions at the 7th FCWS in Milan, Italy (2024), and presents a collective view of the critical barriers currently limiting progress. Across the five technical domains discussed during the 7th FCWS – sustainable fuels combustion, advanced diagnostics for combustion measurements, experiments and modeling in plasma combustion, artificial intelligence and automated methods for theory and mechanisms generation, and chemical kinetic models—a series of persistent and emerging scientific challenges were identified, highlighting the need for deeper integration between three areas: theory, experiments, and modeling. In conclusion, the present article concisely describes present challenges that were identified in each of the technical domains in an effort to streamline and coordinate solutions to accelerate progress in combustion science.

Chemical kinetics↗

Centrality determination with a forward detector in the RHIC Beam Energy Scan

Recently, Chatterjee et al [1] used a hadronic transport model to estimate the resolution with which various experimental quantities select the impact parameter of relativistic heavy ion collisions at collision energies relevant to the Beam Energy Scan (BES) program at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Measures based on particle multiplicity at forward rapidity were found to be significantly worse than those based on midrapidity multiplicity. Using the same model, we show that a slightly more sophisticated measure greatly improves the resolution based on forward rapidity particles; this improvement persists even when the model is filtered through a realistic simulation of a recent upgrade detector to the STAR experiment. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of optimizing centrality measures based on particles detected at forward rapidity, especially for experimental studies that search for a critical point in the QCD phase diagram. Such measurements usually focus on proton multiplicity fluctuations at midrapidity, hence selecting events based on multiplicity at midrapidity raises the possibility of nontrivial autocorrelations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evolution of open magnetic structures on the sun - The Skylab period

High-resolution harmonic analysis of the measured photospheric magnetic field of the sun is used to construct models of open magnetic structures over a period of 11 solar rotations. The models successfully reproduce the surface location and topology of all coronal holes during the Skylab period. In addition, there is persistent evidence in the models that open field lines are associated with active regions in a systematic way. These associations are listed for the period studied; they suggest that open field lines are a basic feature of solar magnetism. Specific examples of the evolution of coronal holes and of calculated open structures are presented. Quantitative study of the measured field strength within and neighboring a hole confirms the fact that coronal hole regions are indistinguishable by local magnetic properties. However, the calculated field strengths at the footpoints of open field lines within coronal holes show distinct evolutionary patterns and may indicate that, at least in young coronal holes, a significant amount of magnetic flux is closed. Problems of studying magnetic field divergence by using these models are discussed.

Levine, R. H.↗

Toward large eddy simulation of turbulent flow over an airfoil

The flow field over an airfoil contains several distinct flow characteristics, e.g. laminar, transitional, turbulent boundary layer flow, flow separation, unstable free shear layers, and a wake. This diversity of flow regimes taxes the presently available Reynolds averaged turbulence models. Such models are generally tuned to predict a particular flow regime, and adjustments are necessary for the prediction of a different flow regime. Similar difficulties are likely to emerge when the large eddy simulation technique is applied with the widely used Smagorinsky model. This model has not been successful in correctly representing different turbulent flow fields with a single universal constant and has an incorrect near-wall behavior. Germano et al. (1991) and Ghosal, Lund & Moin have developed a new subgrid-scale model, the dynamic model, which is very promising in alleviating many of the persistent inadequacies of the Smagorinsky model: the model coefficient is computed dynamically as the calculation progresses rather than input a priori. The model has been remarkably successful in prediction of several turbulent and transitional flows. We plan to simulate turbulent flow over a '2D' airfoil using the large eddy simulation technique. Our primary objective is to assess the performance of the newly developed dynamic subgrid-scale model for computation of complex flows about aircraft components and to compare the results with those obtained using the Reynolds average approach and experiments. The present computation represents the first application of large eddy simulation to a flow of aeronautical interest and a key demonstration of the capabilities of the large eddy simulation technique.

Choi, Haecheon↗

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗

Photospheric Radius Expansion and a Double-peaked Type-I X-Ray Burst from GRS 1741.9-2853

We present an analysis of two type-I X-ray bursts observed by NuSTAR originating from the very faint transient neutron star (NS) low-mass X-ray binary GRS 1741.9–2853 during a period of outburst in 2020 May. We show that the persistent emission can be modeled as an absorbed, Comptonized blackbody in addition to Fe Kα emission, which can be attributed to relativistic disk reflection. We measure a persistent bolometric, unabsorbed luminosity of L(bol) = 7.03(+0.04, -0.05) x 10^(36) erg/s, assuming a distance of 7 kpc, corresponding to an Eddington ratio of 4.5%. This persistent luminosity combined with light-curve analysis leads us to infer that the bursts were the result of pure He burning rather than mixed H/He burning. Time-resolved spectroscopy reveals that the bolometric flux of the first burst exhibits a double-peaked structure, placing the source within a small population of accreting NSs that exhibit multiple-peaked type-I X-ray bursts. We find that the second, brighter burst shows evidence for photospheric radius expansion (PRE) and that at its peak, this PRE event had an unabsorbed bolometric flux of F(peak)= 2.94 (+0.28, -0.26) 10^(-8) erg/sq.cm s. This yields a new distance estimate of d = 9.0 ± 0.5 kpc, assuming that this corresponds to the Eddington limit for pure He burning on the surface of a canonical NS. Additionally, we performed a detailed timing analysis that failed to find evidence for quasi-periodic oscillations or burst oscillations, and we place an upper limit of 16% on the rms variability around 589 Hz, the frequency at which oscillations have previously been reported.

Sean N. Pike↗

Tools for Assessing Performance Project: FY2021 Quarter 4 Report

The rotatable building located at Texas Tech’s Reese Technology Center is approximately 14 m wide (width being defined as more normal to the wind than parallel), 9 m long (aligned more with the wind than perpendicular), and 4 m tall. By placing 29 sonic anemometers downwind of the building, see Fig. 1, this facility provided a chance to collect data concerning both the wake velocity deficit distribution in the downstream and crosssteam directions (relative to the mean wind) behind an isolated building. A preliminary comparison between this data and the recently- developed fast-running diffusive wake model, which was developed based on wind tunnel and LES (performed with JOULES) simulations, for the purpose of either validating this model of understanding potential persistent differences between the idealized wind tunnel or LES conditions and those of full-scale real world phenomena. For this preliminary exploration, we utilized the diffusive wake model implemented in the QUIC model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predictability Associated with Land Surface Moisture States: Studies with the NSIPP System

Hydrologists have long speculated that soil moisture information can be used to increase skill in monthly to seasonal forecast systems. For this to be true, though, three conditions must be satisfied: (1) an imposed initial soil moisture anomaly in the forecast system must have some memory, so that it persists into the forecast period; (2) the modeled atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the persisted anomaly; and (3) the forecast model must correctly represent both the soil moisture memory and the atmospheric response as they occur in nature. In this short paper, we review some recent work at NSIPP (NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project) that addresses all three conditions.

Koster, R. D.↗

Field and Model Data Associated with the Manuscript “Drivers of Streamflow Intermittency in Humid Regions: 2. Evaluating Controls on Flow Persistence in an Urbanized Catchment”

This package contains field data, modeling files, and scripts supporting the investigation of the drivers of streamflow intermittency in an urbanized catchment. It includes the field data collected from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys, distributed temperature sensing (DTS), continuous self-potential (SP) monitoring, groundwater and stilling well. In addition, it contains the data and results of the coupled water- and electrical-flow model developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics and Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), as well as software files and Jupyter notebooks used to process the data and generate figures in the manuscript submitted for peer review. The data archive is organized in the following directories: 1) Climate Includes hourly precipitation and daily evapotranspiration time series (2024 – 2025) provided as CSV files, alongside a text file detailing dataset units. 2) Coupled_model Field_Application subfolder contains the ATS XML input scripts, data files, output data for the SP site. It also contains the Jupyter notebook (Plot_final_calib.ipynb) to visualize the results of the modeled SP, stream-groundwater exchange and moisture content. The flow model simulation is executed using the ATS XML scripts and the included Python script (generate_data_set.py) to convert ATS output to COMSOL-ready input. COMSOL Multiphysics template (.m can only be used with COMSOL with MATLAB) is executed using the ATS output data to simulate the potential field. 3) Discharge Includes the electrical conductivity (EC) time series (provided as CSV files) from salt slug injections. It also includes the Jupyter notebook (Discharge_process.ipynyb) used to estimate discharge. All discharge measurements collated into rating_curve_processed.csv 4) DTS Contains collated DTS data including raw Stokes and anti-Stokes measurement (provided as .h5 file). It also includes DTS processing.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook for calibrating the DTS data using dts_calibration Python package. cooler_calibration.csv is the DTS calibration CSV used in the calibration sequence. 5) ERT Contains raw resistivity data (provided as CSV files), spatial location of each of the electrodes (provided as CSV files), and files used for the resistivity inversion. 6) Slug_test Includes the slug test data at all the groundwater wells provided as CSV files, as well as the Jupyter notebook (Slug_test.ipynb) for calculating hydraulic conductivity. 7) SP Contains the SP data collected in field at the SP sites (provided as CSV files). 8) Well_data Contains two subfolders: 1) Raw, which provides unprocessed pressure, electrical conductivity and temperature timeseries downloaded from the loggers in all the groundwater and stilling wells, and 2) Processed, which contains sorted, QA/QC timeseries data for each well. The data archive also contains data_process.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook used for field data analysis and generating figures (plotting well, SP, climate, and discharge data, as well as calculating head gradient at sites with nested groundwater wells). Note: Code files (.ipynb, .py, .xml) can be opened in any standard code editor, .exo file can be viewed using Paraview, .h5 files can be opened using HDFView software and h5py Python package, and .resipy file can be opened with the open-source ResIPy software.

ATS↗

Modeled and observed properties related to the direct aerosol radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol over the southeastern Atlantic

Biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between July and October of each year. This smoke plume overlies and mixes into a region of persistent low marine clouds. Model calculations of climate forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) had deployments for field campaigns off the west coast of Africa in 3 consecutive years (September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018) with the goal of better characterizing this plume as a function of the monthly evolution by measuring the parameters necessary to calculate the direct aerosol radiative effect. Here, this dataset and satellite retrievals of cloud properties are used to test the representation of the smoke plume and the underlying cloud layer in two regional models (WRF-CAM5 and CNRM-ALADIN) and two global models (GEOS and UM-UKCA). The focus is on the comparisons of those aerosol and cloud properties that are the primary determinants of the direct aerosol radiative effect and on the vertical distribution of the plume and its properties. The representativeness of the observations to monthly averages are tested for each field campaign, with the sampled mean aerosol light extinction generally found to be within 20 % of the monthly mean at plume altitudes. When compared to the observations, in all models, the simulated plume is too vertically diffuse and has smaller vertical gradients, and in two of the models (GEOS and UM-UKCA), the plume core is displaced lower than in the observations. Plume carbon monoxide, black carbon, and organic aerosol masses indicate underestimates in modeled plume concentrations, leading, in general, to underestimates in mid-visible aerosol extinction and optical depth. Biases in mid-visible single scatter albedo are both positive and negative across the models. Observed vertical gradients in single scatter albedo are not captured by the models, but the models do capture the coarse temporal evolution, correctly simulating higher values in October (2018) than in August (2017) and September (2016). Uncertainties in the measured absorption Ångstrom exponent were large but propagate into a negligible (<4 %) uncertainty in integrated solar absorption by the aerosol and, therefore, in the aerosol direct radiative effect. Model biases in cloud fraction, and, therefore, the scene albedo below the plume, vary significantly across the four models. The optical thickness of clouds is, on average, well simulated in the WRF-CAM5 and ALADIN models in the stratocumulus region and is underestimated in the GEOS model; UM-UKCA simulates cloud optical thickness that is significantly too high. Overall, the study demonstrates the utility of repeated, semi-random sampling across multiple years that can give insights into model biases and how these biases affect modeled climate forcing. The combined impact of these aerosol and cloud biases on the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) is estimated using a first-order approximation for a subset of five comparison grid boxes. A significant finding is that the observed grid box average aerosol and cloud properties yield a positive (warming) aerosol direct radiative effect for all five grid boxes, whereas DARE using the grid-box-averaged modeled properties ranges from much larger positive values to small, negative values. It is shown quantitatively how model biases can offset each other, so that model improvements that reduce biases in only one property (e.g., single scatter albedo but not cloud fraction) would lead to even greater biases in DARE. Across the models, biases in aerosol extinction and in cloud fraction and optical depth contribute the largest biases in DARE, with aerosol single scatter albedo also making a significant contribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robustness and Eventual Slow Decay of Bound States of Interacting Microwave Photons in the Google Quantum AI Experiment

Integrable models are characterized by the existence of stable excitations that can propagate indefinitely without decaying. This includes multimagnon bound states in the celebrated 𝑋⁢𝑋⁢𝑍 spin-chain model and its integrable Floquet counterpart. A recent Google Quantum AI experiment [A. Morvan et al., Nature 612, 240 (2022)] realizing the Floquet model has demonstrated the persistence of such collective excitations even when the integrability is broken: this observation is at odds with the expectation of ergodic dynamics in generic nonintegrable systems. Here, we study the spectrum of the model realized in the experiment using exact diagonalization and physical arguments. We find that isolated bands corresponding to the descendants of the exact bound states of the integrable model are clearly observable in the spectrum for a large range of system sizes. However, our numerical analysis of the localization properties of the eigenstates suggests that the bound states become unstable in the thermodynamic limit. A perturbative estimate of the decay rate agrees with the prediction of an eventual instability for large system sizes.

Exact diagonalization↗

A flying superconducting magnet and cryostat for magnetic suspension of wind-tunnel models

The engineering practicality of a persistent high-field superconducting solenoid cryostat as a magnetic suspension and balance system (MSBS) for wind-tunnel testing of aircraft and missile models is examined. The test apparatus is a simple solenoid of filamentary NbTi superconductor with a cupronickel matrix. The apparatus, with a length-to-diameter ratio of 6 to 1 and a radius of 32 mm, used a 0.25 mm wire with a critical current of 27 A in an external field of 6 T. The total heat inleak of 150 mW was achieved. Helium boiloff rates were tested over a range of operating conditions, including pitch attitudes from 10 deg nose down to 90 deg nose up; the rate was estimated as low, but the aerodynamic acceptability of venting gaseous helium has not been determined. It is shown that the effectiveness of the concept increases with increasing scale, and performance in excess of that of conventional ferromagnets is achievable with reduction in size and costs, and with aptness to transonic wind-tunnel testing. Detailed specifications and schematics are included.

Britcher, C.↗

A survey of the cosmic ray diurnal variation during 1973-1979. I - Persistence of solar diurnal variation. II - Application of diffusion-convection model to diurnal anisotropy data

An analysis of data obtained with the vertical underground muon telescope at Embudo, NM shows that the solar diurnal variation in cosmic ray intensity is a persistent phenomenon over the 1973-1979 period. Assuming that the daily fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of the diurnal variation are random perturbations about the mean vector, the relative magnitude of the random component is determined. In the second part, the Diffusion-Convection model of cosmic ray transport is applied to high rigidity particles detected at the earth in order to deduce the behavior of the heliospheric transport parameters between 1973 and 1979. It is suggested that the diurnal variation observed at Embudo during 1979 may require a contribution from the charged particle drifts.

Riker, J. F.↗