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DOE OSTI2021

A Review of Water and Climate Change Analysis in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which electric utility integrated resource plans (IRPs) evaluate the impact of water constraints on electric generation resource portfolios and the extent to which IRPs consider the impacts of climate change to generation and loads. This white paper reviewed 30 IRPs to determine best practices with respect to analyzing and reporting on potential water-based and climate change risks within the integrated resource planning process. Best practices from electric utility IRPs are identified and additional recommendations and considerations are put forth. In recent years, thermal generating facilities have experienced challenges with water availability: a shortage of cooling water, conditions in which incoming cooling water is too warm for optimal operation, and/or water discharge temperatures exceeding permit limits. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently reported on a study that identified for the year 2030, 98.2 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity at risk due to water stress. Climate change effects on hydrological cycles may adjust the timing, temperature, and volume of water availability for thermal electric cooling and for hydropower generation, which could further exacerbate the frequency and duration of operational constraints. Climate change can also impact the timing and intensity of electric loads that utilities must serve, most notably for heating and cooling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO 2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO 2 prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO 2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO 2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO 2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO 2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO 2 emission target, prices are US $ \$34$ to US $ \$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $ \$77$ to US $ \$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Encoding trade-offs and design toolkits in quantum algorithms for discrete optimization: coloring, routing, scheduling, and other problems

Challenging combinatorial optimization problems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Several quantum methods for optimization have recently been developed, in different settings including both exact and approximate solvers. Addressing this field of research, this manuscript has three distinct purposes. First, we present an intuitive method for synthesizing and analyzing discrete (i.e., integer-based) optimization problems, wherein the problem and corresponding algorithmic primitives are expressed using a discrete quantum intermediate representation (DQIR) that is encoding-independent. This compact representation often allows for more efficient problem compilation, automated analyses of different encoding choices, easier interpretability, more complex runtime procedures, and richer programmability, as compared to previous approaches, which we demonstrate with a number of examples. Second, we perform numerical studies comparing several qubit encodings; the results exhibit a number of preliminary trends that help guide the choice of encoding for a particular set of hardware and a particular problem and algorithm. Our study includes problems related to graph coloring, the traveling salesperson problem, factory/machine scheduling, financial portfolio rebalancing, and integer linear programming. Third, we design low-depth graph-derived partial mixers (GDPMs) up to 16-level quantum variables, demonstrating that compact (binary) encodings are more amenable to QAOA than previously understood. We expect this toolkit of programming abstractions and low-level building blocks to aid in designing quantum algorithms for discrete combinatorial problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship

Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship (CLUES) Report serves as a summary document of the land use and environmental stewardship activities occurring on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site (Desert) and the Research and Education Campus (REC) within Idaho Falls. Land and facility use planning and decisions at the INL Site are guided by a comprehensive planning process in accordance with the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Order 430.1C, “Real Property Asset Management,” which states "Establish a data-driven, risk-informed, performance-based approach to the life-cycle management of real property assets that aligns the real property portfolio with DOE mission needs; acquire, manage, positively account for, and dispose of real property assets in a safe, secure, cost-effective, and sustainable manner; and ensure the real property portfolio is appropriately sized, aligned, and in the proper condition to support efficient mission execution." Land use planning, like Campus Master Planning and 5-Year Facility Planning, provides a means for better, more sustainable use of the INL Site in a coordinated effort to ensure current and future mission needs are met, including acquisition, recapitalization, maintenance, disposition, real property utilization and long-term stewardship. This document and all functions of INL are guided by the DOE Vision for INL and the INL Mission and builds on the baseline established in the FY 2015 CLUES Report. However, it delivers a revised structure with focus on new resource management zones, which provide organization of key management considerations and access restrictions to optimize land use and environmental stewardship. A new set of thematic Guiding Principles presented in this report provide the intent and sustainable management direction to protect the INL Site natural environment. They demonstrate that the mission and vision of DOE and INL can be realized with inclusion of first of a kind technology, private sector development, and globally recognized testing and demonstration. This CLUES Report encourages comprehensive management decision-making with additional resource discussions for sustainability, the built environment, and the ecological landscape at the INL Site. Enhanced resource considerations and trends emphasize the importance of air, land use, environmental, subsurface, and cultural resources. The INL Site supports exceptional and interdependent resources. A diversity of bat species are accommodated by culturally significant caves distributed around the Site. Big game species like elk, deer, and moose seek vegetation communities which are protected by long-term stewardship and monitoring programs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Power Supply Options for the Marpi Landfill, Saipan: Feasibility Study

The Marpi Landfill, located on the northern end of the island of Saipan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), is powered by an on-site diesel generator that only operates when the landfill is open and staffed. The CNMI Office of Planning and Development (OPD) aspires to provide the Marpi Landfill with 24-hour power availability despite its remote location and to increase the use of sustainable energy within the CNMI. CNMI has a 20% target for renewable energy consumption, as documented in Sustainable Development Goal #7 in the Comprehensive Sustainable Development Plan (OPD 2021) and the renewable portfolio standard (GPO 2014). To accomplish these goals, the U.S. Department of Energy, through its Interagency Reimbursable Work Agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, funded this feasibility study to assess and prioritize power supply options for the landfill. The availability of solar and wind resources varies seasonally, as does the load. A BESS can help to balance mismatches between generation and load on short (hourly or daily) timescales, but not across seasons. The microgrid scenarios evaluated for Marpi consider options for technology combinations that will both meet the load and utilize available resources, despite the challenge presented by higher loads and lower solar and wind availability during the rainy season, depicted in Figure ES-2. The seven scenarios evaluated are summarized in Table ES-1. Each scenario’s configuration was optimized to include component capacities that reduce capital and operating costs, meet the load, and minimize carbon emissions, as feasible. The costs and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) shown do not assume the use of any grant funding or incentives, although these options were also evaluated. To assist with decision-making, a prioritization matrix (Table ES-3) was created to compare the microgrid scenarios evaluated in this feasibility study according to various stakeholder priorities. The prioritization metrics were chosen based on discussions with OPD and will be finalized through stakeholder feedback. The scenarios were given a score between 1 and 7 for each prioritization metric (the lower the score, the higher the priority), and total scores were calculated using assigned weights based on the relative priority of each metric. The total scores were then ranked to produce a prioritized list of microgrid scenarios based on the metrics most important to the project stakeholders. As shown, scenario 4 (100 kW of solar PV, a 75 kW/300 kWh BESS, and 160 kW of diesel generation) ranks highest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediately electrified. This assumption is unrealistic in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification will likely be a gradual process over a number of years. Furthermore, since a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is located in rural regions, the prioritization of these regions may impact how the grid develops. In this research, we develop a multi-period optimization model for power generation and transmission system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to existing models, which assume full electrification, we consider a variety of electrification policies and analyze the impact of varying the electrification rate and policy on the cost and resources selected for power system expansion. We test our model on a case study of Rwanda. We find that varying the year in which full electrification is reached has a larger impact on cost and generation capacity than varying the electrification policy does, although, when urban and rural regions are considered equitably, more rooftop solar is built. Varying the electrification policies has a larger impact on transmission expansion than on generation expansion and this impact is amplified when starting from zero initial system capacity rather than the original Rwanda system. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis shows that tightening the bounds on CO 2eq emissions has a large impact on the generation portfolio and cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Poly(diallylmethylammonium) proton conducting membranes with high ionic conductivity at intermediate temperatures

High temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells are being lately investigated because of their high energy efficiency, their superior heat/water management, CO tolerance, and electrode reaction kinetics. To further advance this technology, the polymer membrane portfolio and performance should be improved for intermediate or high temperature operation (>100 °C). In this work we present new poly(diallylmethylammonium) proton conducting membranes with high ionic conductivity at 120 °C. First, new protic ionic liquids, hereafter called DAMAH + X - , were synthesized leading to diallylmethylammonium monomers with different counter-anions. By radical cyclopolymerization through thermal and photoinitiation mechanisms, self-standing protic polymeric membranes of poly(diallylmethylammonium X - ) were obtained. Membranes showed good thermal stability (>250 °C) and mechanical properties without the need of additives such as (protic) ionic liquids, solvents or inorganic charges. Great attention was paid to understand the effect of the different counter-anions on the membrane properties. As a general trend, fluorinated anions coming from strong acids confer high ionic conductivity and allow to reduce the hygroscopic properties on the protic polymeric membranes. Proton structural and dynamical stability at different temperatures and humidification conditions were investigated by Neutron Scattering (QENS and NR). The optimized poly(diallylmethylammonium X - ) shows similar ionic conductivity values than Nafion 212 under varying relative humidity conditions at 80 °C. Furthermore, it shows a high ionic conductivity value of 1.9 × 10 -3 Scm -1 at 120 °C under dry conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Challenges for and Pathways Toward Solid-State Batteries

Solid-state batteries utilizing lithium metal anodes have the potential to enable batteries with a specific energy of >500 Wh/kg and an energy density of >1,500 Wh/L for thousands of cycles. When optimized they will improve the energy efficiency, operating temperature range, sustainability, and safety at a lower cost compared to projections for advanced Li-ion batteries. This improved performance is critical for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and may enable future applications such as electric aviation. Expectations for solid-state batteries are high, there are significant materials and processing challenges that need to be overcome. Some of these challenges are well known; others are more subtle and are just becoming known. The challenges and their solutions must be clearly identified to realize high-energy solid-state Li metal batteries. In the United States, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funds the majority of energy storage research and development, including solid state battery research. Web of Science publication analysis shows that worldwide DOE is second largest funder. Work on solid state batteries is distributed across different arms of DOE and is coordinated at headquarters to ensure a broad national portfolio for advanced batteries, including lithium batteries and solid-state battery devices. We note that university and national laboratory researchers in the US with a long-standing interest in solid state batteries is a small, integrated community with recognized impact for publications, patents and startup companies. The opportunity for this group to engage for research with international colleagues is growing, fostered by periodic bilateral meetings supported by DOE and by the recent joint US German research program for lithium battery interface studies. These are valuable opportunities to speed solid-state battery development. The ORNL led virtual workshop, overviewed here, confirms the community’s shared vision of the exciting advances, opportunities, and challenges. Further, we are seeing that this workshop has spawned several new informal collaborations and draft proposals. This encourages us to propose future discussion. On May 11, 2020, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) hosted a 6-hour, on-line national workshop to discuss recent advances and most the prominent obstacles to realizing solid-state Li metal batteries. The workshop included more than 30+ experts from national laboratories, universities, and companies, all of whom have worked on solid-state batteries for multiple years. The participants shared recent advances, many not yet in print, illustrating that the community has gained significant new insights for solid-state Li battery materials over the last 5 years. In this report, the major outcomes of the workshop are organized to identify the gaps in our scientific knowledge for four core materials science areas: (1) Li metal anodes, (2) the solid electrolyte in contact with Li metal, (3) active cathode materials and solid-state composite cathodes, and (4) solid electrolytes. Illustrative examples and discussions are reported with the more comprehensive issues in the report. Discussion of additional challenges related to processing of solid-state battery materials and to the designs and architectures for mechanically robust, long-lived batteries received less attention due to time constraints. These are good themes for deeper discussion at a follow-on workshop, where a complete list of critical research topics can be identified.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing and testing capabilities for simulating cases with heterogeneous land/water surfaces in a novel atmospheric large eddy simulation code

Large eddy simulations (LES) are the primary computational tool used to simulate high Reynolds number three-dimensional turbulent flows. In the context of earth system sciences, particularly atmospheric science, LES are uniquely able to resolve the scales of atmospheric motion that are key for building process-level understanding of boundary layer turbulence, atmosphere-surface interaction, clouds, and cloud-aerosol-chemistry interaction, and are a core limited-area modeling capability. Increasing demands are being placed on LES code bases as growing high performance computing resources allow LES to address a wider range of scientific problems. In addition, LES are emerging as a source of high-quality machine learning training data. These demands necessitate an agile and extensible code base that allows the model to quickly adapt to emergent needs. However, LES have largely relied on legacy Fortran code bases that lack flexibility. A new, Python-based LES capability called Predicting INteractions of Aerosol and Clouds in Large Eddy Simulation (PINACLES) has been developed as part of the Department of Energy’s Earth System Model Development (ESMD) program area’s Enabling Aerosol-cloud interactions at Global convection-permitting scalES (EAGLES) project. PINACLES was developed from the ground up with a philosophy of maximizing scientific throughput, by attempting to optimize for both model throughput and software extensibility. The initial development of PINACLES delivered a state-of-the-art idealized LES capability solving the non-hydrostatic anelastic equations of motion with doubly periodic boundary conditions and idealized homogenous surface boundary conditions. Here we provide a final report on the outcomes of a fiscal year 2021 Seed Laboratory Directed Research Project that extended PINACLES in two key ways. First, PINACLES was coupled to a state-of-the-art land surface model enabling it to simulate spatially inhomogeneous land-atmosphere interactions that are known to control key atmospheric processes. Second, the dynamical core of PINACLES was modified to permit non-periodic boundary conditions. This model enhancement enables simulation of realistic cases with boundary conditions prescribed from atmospheric reanalysis and enables nested simulations conducted on a hierarchy of computational domains with increasing resolution. Together, these extensions to PINACLES make it a formidable modeling capability and expand its potential application to diverse components of DOE’s atmospheric science portfolio.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning and deep learning for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation in geological carbon Storage: A case study in the Illinois Basin

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising approach to simultaneously maintaining energy security and reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions under the current energy portfolio that is dominated by fossil fuel energy. Pre-injection formation characterization and post-injection CO 2 monitoring are two critical tasks to guarantee storage efficiency in CCS. The CCS projects in the Illinois Basin, the first large-scale CO 2 injection into saline aquifers in the United States, employed conventional and the latest pulsed neutron logging (PNL) tools for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation, which provide valuable references for future CCS projects. Because of the inherent fuzziness of petrophysical measurements and complex subsurface heterogeneity, interpreting well-logging data is time-consuming, and its accuracy can be user-biased. In recent years, data-driven methods have been widely used to capture the non-linear patterns between input features and interpretation results. This work applied and evaluated four commonly used machine learning (ML) models, including ridge regression (RR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression (GBR), support vector regression (SVR), and one deep learning (DL) model, the artificial neural network (ANN). We optimized the hyperparameters of the four ML models and the DL model using the simulated annealing algorithm and the grid search strategy, respectively. The input features of the mineralogy interpretation models were eleven conventional well-logging parameters, and the label data (i.e., ground truth) were the porosity and volumetric fractions of six minerals, including quartz, feldspar, dolomite, calcite, clay, and iron minerals. The results demonstrated that the GBR and RF models were superior in predicting volumetric fractions of minerals and porosity; label data with low coefficient of variation (CV) values tended to yield better performance. For CO 2 saturation estimation, the RF was the best-performing model, followed by SVR, ANN, GBR, and RR. Furthermore, we conducted feature importance ranking using the permutation importance algorithm and found that the formation sigma and well pressure were the most important features in this study. In conclusion, the study of CCS projects in the Illinois Basin bridges the gap between the limited knowledge and understanding of geological carbon storage and the increasing demand for reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable energy solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digitalization mapping and assessment process supporting ION strategic transformation activities

The existing fleet of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are an important asset in the nation’s portfolio of electrical generating resources. Their continued safe and reliable operation are critical to providing a large source of carbon-free electricity to power the nation’s economy. The United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program develops the scientific bases, methods, and tools, for the continued safe and economical operation of the nation's commercial NPPs. The Plant Modernization Pathway within LWRS Program focuses on providing guidance to industry on the full-scale implementation of modernization solutions for NPPs that significantly reduce the technical and financial risks associated with modernization. This research is focused on helping the nuclear industry understand how to digitize and digitalize their NPPs so that they can design their modernization solutions to be scalable, sustainable, and integrated both laterally and horizontally within their organization. That is, this research creates a digital transformation in NPPs by reshaping cultural mindsets and by identifying business efficiencies. In partnership with industry, and using four previously established guiding principles for digitalization, this research supported NPP modernization through assessing readiness for digitalization as a means to achieve integrated operations for nuclear. Specifically, this research created an assessment to review an entire organization’s work processes to gather information about the digitalization health of the plant. The assessment tools were administered to plant employees, and the results were used to develop a digitalization plan. The survey assessment identified the optimal candidate processes that would most benefit from a digitalization initiative which were revealed through analytical frameworks. One analysis calculated mean digitalization health indicator scores for all endorsed activities which allowed the researchers to rank and color code the results for easy identification. Individual health indicator scores are also provided, should our industry partner wish to understand these findings according to their own organizational priorities, business considerations and desired end-state. The results were also analyzed from the perspective that organizations are comprised of different types of innovators (e.g., generators, optimizers, conceptualizers, and implementers), which differentially affects the organization’s ability to comprehend and adapt to change (i.e., opportunities to innovate). Understanding the relative composition of innovator types at an NPP allows them to gather insights into the strengths and weaknesses they have in innovating how work is performed. For the utility that partnered with this research team, the results showed that implementers make up the largest portion of respondents and conceptualizers the smallest portion. Knowing the proportion of innovator types gave this organization insights on how they can effectively implement their innovation solutions. Additionally, the results were analyzed from a technical, economic, and risk perspective to identify and quantify work reduction opportunities (WROs). Recognizing that not all cost-saving opportunities are the same, a Technical, Economic and Risk Assessment (TERA) was performed to evaluate WROs to identify areas of greatest potential and lowest risk. The key results from TERA included a digitalization opportunity score for each activity, and a calculation of potential cost savings. These two outputs formed the bases for calculating a priority index and rank for the activities/processes assessed. From the prioritization calculations, TERA can then help the utility 1) decide what digitalization priorities to invest money in implementing and then 2) calculates how much should be invested in the digitalization initiatives selected to achieve cost savings and/or an acceptable return on investment. Last, onsite interviews revealed several inefficiencies in the standard work processes that occur cross-departmentally that are due to the absence of digitized and digitalized processes. Examples of these include time spent scanning paper documents and then uploading the documents electronically, obtaining signatures, and searching for desired information. This represents a digital but not digitalized process. Over 15 opportunities to improve work processes were identified through this multi-method digitalization assessment. The various analytical assessments used (e.g., TERA, digitalization health indicator scores), as well as discussions with the utility partner, corroborated that all the opportunities identified had a strong potential to make work processes more efficient and to improve overall performance of the NPP.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

RAFT: Reconfigurable Array of High-Efficiency Ducted Turbines for Hydrokinetic Energy Harvesting

Diversifying the energy harvesting portfolio is crucial to achieving the ambitious goal of transitioning to clean energy by 2030. Marine hydrokinetic energy has garnered renewed interest due to its high harvesting potential in the U.S., and the resource's reliability and predictability—remaining relatively constant on a daily basis and available 24/7. However, there are currently few commercial devices capable of harnessing the energy from flowing water. This project aims to bridge that gap by designing and evaluating a novel hydrokinetic turbine concept that can efficiently harvest energy from both rivers and tidal streams. The RAFT (Reconfigurable Array of High-Efficiency Ducted Turbines) concept introduces a duct surrounding the turbine rotor and creates an array of small 5-kW units. The duct serves two primary purposes: (1) it enhances hydrodynamic efficiency by accelerating flow to the rotor, and (2) it functions as a structural component, facilitating the formation of modular arrays that lower costs. This project focuses on demonstrating this concept and validating these benefits through simulations and scaled prototype testing. The project team includes 8 faculty members and over 20 students from 3 universities, organized into three core areas: hydrodynamics, electrical systems, and structural analysis, with additional teams dedicated to system integration, environmental assessment and risk management, and tech-to-market strategy. The team successfully demonstrated the increased hydrodynamic efficiency of a ducted turbine compared to an unducted version using high-fidelity simulations and prototype tests. Moreover, design optimization efforts led to surpassing the SHARKS program's goal of 60% reduction of the levelized cost of energy with a significant margin.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating power grid model hydropower feasibility with a river operations model

Production cost models (PCMs) simulate dispatch of generators across a large power grid and are used widely by planners to study the reliability of electricity supply. As energy systems transition away from the thermoelectric technologies that have traditionally balanced electricity supply and demand, hydropower and its representation in PCMs is of increasing importance. A limitation of PCMs applied to continental power grids with diverse generation portfolios is that hydropower generation is simulated without full consideration of complex river dynamics, leading to possible misrepresentation of grid flexibility and performance. In addition, data used in PCMs may reflect outdated operating policies. In this paper we propose a hydropower generation feasibility test for PCMs. The approach uses a detailed hydropower model to determine whether the hourly hydropower schedule from a PCM with simplified monthly parameterization can be attained after accounting for realistic river dynamics and operating policies, such as spill requirements and general water movement and balance through a cascade reservoir system. We perform this hydropower generation test for the ‘Big 10’ hydropower system on the Columbia River (part of the Western Interconnect of the United States), revealing 9% overestimation of available hydropower generation in a PCM solution in an average hydrologic year. Our evaluation provides insight on the cost and opportunities for better representing hydropower in PCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Control of Systems with Plasma-Surface Interactions (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the activities and accomplishments in the period from February 2023 thru January 2026. The objective of the proposed research is to investigate the physical mechanisms and processes underlying the formation of structures and patterns in systems with plasma-surface interactions. In the past decades, there have been extensive studies on the interaction of glow discharges, dielectric barrier discharges, and arc discharges with confining or intervening surfaces. The advancement of the understanding of these phenomena is not only of fundamental scientific interest and relevance to the knowledge of the plasma state, but also with profound implications in various technological applications. The research will integrate theoretical, computational, and experimental work within an innovative framework of data assimilation, i.e., optimally combining model predictions with measurements. The scientific merit of this research has three aspects. Firstly, it extends the studies of plasma-surface interactions to systems with insulator surfaces and multi-layer systems, while existing studies are predominantly on electrode surfaces. Secondly, it expects to develop a novel data-driven modeling approach based on data assimilation to enhance the predictive and control capabilities, which could make transformative contributions to basic plasma research. Thirdly, it will shed new light on outstanding problems related to formation of patterns interfacing plasmas. This project also aims to launch an education and outreach initiative at Texas A&M University-Kingsville, a non-R1, minority-serving institution in South Texas. The initiative is structured as a four-tier pyramid. Tier one will be a webinar series for culture and capacity building to inform broader audience in the region about the research fields of plasma science and engineering. Tier two will be the creation and offering of an upper-level undergraduate course on introductory plasma physics, which will help with the recruitment for the upper tiers. On tier three, we will engage and mentor senior design students to conduct work toward the research goal of this project. There will also be a certificate program on general plasma science for undergrad and graduate students, part of which will be lab training at Princeton University. Tier four will be the supervision and mentoring of Ph.D. students. Therefore, this project will systematically expand the talent pipeline, broaden participation from communities historically and geographically underrepresented in DOE SC research portfolio, significantly improve the research and education capacity at the PI’s institution, and contribute to developing a diverse workforce in plasma science and engineering.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Post-irradiation examination of legacy high burnup fuel to support safety testing

Safety/transient testing to evaluate performance under off-normal conditions is an essential pillar for both the development of Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) and the optimization of fuel operation economics beyond current discharge burnups. Among other factors, the successful interpretation of the transient testing results relies upon the knowledge of the initial conditions of the test, including the characteristics of the fuel system under scrutiny. When testing pre-irradiated material, the assumptions that the fuel and the cladding still have the same properties as in the pre-irradiation stage is obviously wrong and could affect the results of the test. This is particularly true the more burnup accumulates in the fuel rod and irradiation progresses. The knowledge of the initial microstructure of both fuel and cladding allows a clearer interpretation of the subsequent transient testing results, provides validation of the physical phenomena underlying the model predictions and eliminates the uncertainties related to the limited knowledge of the sample status before the test. One example is the phenomenon of fine fragmentation that occurs in Light Water reactor (LWR) fuel. During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) or Reactivity Initiated Transient (RIA) the fuel can severely fragment. During LOCA, high burnup fuel tend to finely fragment, which has raised safety concerns due to the increased likelihood of dispersal of such small particles once the cladding has burst and due to the increased fission gas release. Therefore, efforts have been devoted to the assessment of a pulverization threshold that could determine the conditions under which fine fragmentation is predominant. However, the lack of information regarding the initial conditions of the fuel, and the connections between those conditions and the pre-transient irradiation history, have hindered the development of a fully mechanistic fragmentation and pulverization criterion. The empirical relationships rely on conservative estimations, due to the lack of information on critical material properties and characteristics. More generally, experimental evidence of the irradiation-induced modifications at microstructural scale are necessary to determine the behavior of the material at the macroscopic scale, with the latter being the one of technological interest. Significant progress has been made in the last two decades in the developments of analytical materials science techniques that can be applied to highly radioactive materials, such as high burnup fuels. The availability of new techniques and the improvement of existing ones has enabled investigations previously not possible that can deepen the understanding of the fuel characteristics and properties at high burnup. The better knowledge of material behavior and irradiation-induced phenomena could help the prediction of its performance. In this context, the scope of the present work is to apply a wide portfolio of advanced characterization techniques to determine properties that are relevant for safety and performance. The results are interpreted in the context of engineering scale post-irradiation examinations and available information on the irradiation conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Where Have All of the Electrons Gone? Understanding the Role of Alternative Electron Flow and O 2 Reduction in Balancing Cellular Redox (Final Technical Report)

An informed understanding of the fundamentals of light-driven electron transfer reactions in photoautotrophic organisms is necessary to enable improved photosynthetic efficiencies for the production of renewable fuels and novel biomaterials. To obtain high photosynthetic yields, light energy must be efficiently coupled to the fixation of CO 2 . Sub-optimal environmental conditions and metabolic routing (caused by blocks in biosynthetic routes) can severely impact the conversion of light energy to biomass and lead to reactive oxygen production, which in turn can cause cellular damage and productivity losses. Hence, plants, algae, and photosynthetic bacteria have evolved a network of alternative outlets to sustain the flow of photosynthetically derived-electrons. Our research was focused on the nature and integration of these outlets. The data obtained in this project will inform efforts to rationally engineer crop plants and algae to improve photosynthetic yields by enhancing electron transfer reactions to CO 2 reduction and targeted biomass accumulation. A major project research thrust was focused on identifying and quantifying the flow of photosynthetic reductant through electron transfer circuits that result in the light-dependent reduction of O 2 . New energy management strategies were identified that are used when normal carbon assimilation pathways are compromised due to nutrient deprivation, and/or by a reduction in starch synthesis/carbon storage, all conditions resulting in highly reduced intracellular redox pools. The green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and likely many other algae, have multiple O 2 -reducing pathways that play critical roles in maintaining cellular metabolic balance and scavenging electrons that could potentially cause cellular damage, which in some instances leads to reduced photosynthetic yields but increased fitness. We explored the activities of three essential outlets associated with Chlamydomonas reinhardtii photosynthetic electron transport: (1) reduction of O 2 to H 2 O through Flavodiiron proteins (FLVs) and (2) Plastid Terminal Oxidases (PTOX), and (3) the synthesis of starch. Real-time measurements of O 2 exchange demonstrated that FLVs immediately engage during dark to light transitions, allowing electron transport when the CBBC is not fully activated. Under these conditions, we quantified, for the first time, maximal FLV activity and its overall capacity to direct photosynthetic electrons towards O 2 reduction. However, when starch synthesis is compromised, a greater proportion of electrons is directed toward O 2 reduction through the FLVs, while PTOX, which is sensitive to the PQ pool redox state, is activated. This suggests, that starch synthesis has an important role in priming/regulating CBBC and electron transport. We also identified a biological ‘switch’ in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii that reversibly restricts photosynthetic electron transport (PET) at the cytochrome b 6 f complex when reductant and ATP generated by PET are in excess of the capacity of carbon metabolism to utilize these products; we specifically show a restriction at this switch when sta6 mutant cells, which cannot synthesize starch, are limited for nitrogen (growth inhibition) and subjected to a dark to light transition. This restriction causes diminished electron flow to PSI, which prevents PSI photodamage, and the plastid alternative oxidase (PTOX) becomes fully activated, serving as an electron valve that dissipates excitation energy absorbed by PSII, thereby lessening PSII photoinhibition. Furthermore, illumination of the cells following the dark acclimation gradually diminishes the restriction at the switch. Future engineering of these switches may allow more effective electron transfer to lipid (biofuel) pathways and diminish the number of electrons “wasted” in the reduction of O 2 to water. Lastly, we explored metabolic routing of electrons during algal fermentation and discovered multiple novel pathways that are activated when the preferred anoxic routes are blocked. These provide valuable products (e.g. lactate, glycerol) that can be used in broad portfolio of biotechnological applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗