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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds

Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A procedure for rule extraction from a Self-Organising plasma disruption predictor for JET

In a previous paper, a Self-Organizing Map had proven to be able to identify the regions of the plasma operative space characterizing the pre-disruptive phase at JET without relying on any a priori information. One of the strengths of this disruption predictor lies in its inherent self-organization capability. The Self-Organizing Map discovers non-trivial relationships and captures the complicated interplay of device diagnostics on the internal plasma states directly from the experimental data. Moreover, the provided model allows the visualization of high-dimensional plasma parameters and facilitates easy interrogation of the model to understand the reasons behind its correlations. In this paper, an additional step is taken towards the interpretability of models for predicting disruptions by training a Decision Tree to classify the plasma states according to the interpretation provided by the Self-Organizing Map (stable or at high risk of disruptions). The Decision tree provides a set of rules which describe the transition of the plasma towards the pre-disruptive phase as visualized in the Self-Organizing Map. The obtained rules for the database explored in the study identify four regions in the map, two of which are at risk of disruption. These regions correspond to partitions of a 3D space based on the peaking factors of the core and divertor radiation, as well as the Locked Mode. The agreement between the Self-Organizing Map answers and the rules supplied by the Decision Tree is confirmed by the comparison of the performance exhibited by the two models in the prediction of disruptions.

Setzu, Samuele [Univ. of Cagliari, Monserrato, Cag↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress Toward Interpretable Machine Learning–Based Disruption Predictors Across Tokamaks

Here in this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently not used in many other machine learning predictors for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. The univariate analysis of the features used as input signals in the data-driven algorithms applied on the data of both tokamaks statistically highlights the differences in the dominant disruption precursors. JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge-cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous magnetohydrodynamic modes. Even though the analyzed data sets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show through a few examples that the inclusion of physics-based disruption markers in data-driven algorithms is a promising path toward the realization of a uniform framework to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios across different tokamaks. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be re-used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

A real-time machine learning-based disruption predictor in DIII-D

A disruption prediction algorithm, named DPRF (Disruption Prediction using Random Forests), has run in real-time in the DIII-D plasma control system (PCS) over more than 900 discharges. DPRF naturally provides a probability mapping associated to its predictions, i.e. the disruptivity signal, now incorporated in the DIII-D PCS. Here, we report on disruption prediction accomplishments in terms of shot-by-shot performances, by simulating alarms on each discharge as in the PCS framework. Due to the optimised performance metric chosen to evaluate DPRF, we find that almost all disruptive discharges are detected in average with few hundred of milliseconds of warning time, but this comes at a high cost of false alarms produced. Performances are not satisfying ITER requirements, where the success rate has to be higher than 95%, but this is not completely unexpected. DPRF is trained on many years of major disruptions occurring during the flattop phase of the plasma current on DIII-D, but without any differentiation by cause. Furthermore, we find that DPRF is affected by a relatively high fraction of false alarms occurring during the first 500 milliseconds from the flattop onset. This subtle effect, more evident on the discharges where DPRF ran in real-time, can be marginalized by taking specific precautions on the validity range of the predictions, and performances do improve. Even if presently burdened by some limitations, DPRF provides an incredible and novel advantage. Thanks to the feature contribution analysis (e.g., the identification of which signals contributed to triggering an alarm), it is possible to interpret and explain DPRF predictions. It is the first time that such interpretability features is exploited by a disruption predictor: by uncovering the disruption events' causes, a better understanding of disruption dynamics is achieved, and a clear path toward the design of disruption avoidance strategies can be provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Is the dark-matter halo spin a predictor of galaxy spin and size?

ABSTRACT The similarity between the distributions of spins for galaxies (λgal) and for dark-matter haloes (λhalo), indicated both by simulations and observations, is naively interpreted as a one-to-one correlation between the spins of a galaxy and its host halo. This is used to predict galaxy sizes in semi-analytic models via Re ≃ fjλhaloRvir, where Re is the half-mass radius of the galaxy, fj is the angular momentum retention factor, and Rvir is the halo radius. Using two suites of zoom-in cosmological simulations, we find that λgal and the λhalo of its host halo are in fact barely correlated, especially at z ≥ 1, in line with previous indications. Since the spins of baryons and dark matter are correlated at accretion into Rvir, the null correlation in the end reflects an anticorrelation between fj and λhalo, which can arise from mergers and a ‘wet compaction’ phase that many high-redshift galaxies undergo. It may also reflect that unrepresentative small fractions of baryons are tapped to the galaxies. The galaxy spin is better correlated with the spin of the inner halo, but this largely reflects the effect of the baryons on the halo. While λhalo is not a useful predictor for Re, our simulations reproduce a general relation of the form of Re = ARvir, in agreement with observational estimates. We find that the relation becomes tighter with A = 0.02(c/10)−0.7, where c is the halo concentration, which in turn introduces a dependence on mass and redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the use of air temperature and precipitation as surrogate predictors in soil respiration modelling

Soil respiration (R S ), the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux that is a major component of the global carbon cycle, is strongly influenced by local soil temperature (T soil ) and water content (SWC). Regional to global-scale R S modelling thus requires this information at local scales, but few high-quality, wall-to-wall (global) T soil and SWC data exist. As a result, such modelling efforts commonly use air temperature (T air ) and monthly precipitation (P m ) as surrogate predictors, but their site-scale accuracy and potential bias are unknown. In this report we used monthly data from 880 sites across a wide variety of different environmental conditions (i.e., climate, ecosystem type, elevation, vegetation leaf habit and drainage conditions) to determine the suitability of T air as a surrogate for T soil , and data from 507 sites to examine the suitability of P m as a surrogate for SWC. Site-specific linear and second-order exponential non-linear models were compared using model evaluation metrics (i.e., slope, p-value of slope, root mean square error [RMSE], index of agreement and model efficiency). We found that T soil and T air are highly correlated and explain similar R S variability. In contrast, P m is not a good surrogate for SWC, even though P m explains a similar amount of R S variability to SWC. The wide variability in the site-specific relationships between R S and SWC means that no single relationship can be used for large-scale modelling. The results from this study support the use of T air in continental-to-global scale R S models, and highlight the urgent need for continental-to-global scale SWC datasets for the modelling and evaluation of future soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Choice reaction time and grip strength as predictors of cardiovascular mortality in middle‐aged and elderly Japanese: from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation Adult Health study

Abstract Background Cognitive function and physical function are important predictors of mortality. Aim To investigate whether or not reaction time (RT) as a cognitive function and grip strength (GS) as a physical function were associated, alone or in combination, with mortality from heart disease or stroke. Methods The subjects included 4901 Adult Health Study participants in Hiroshima who had undergone RT and GS measurements, were 35–74 years old at baseline (1970–1972) and were followed until the end of 2007. Results After adjustment for other potential risk factors, RT was positively and GS was negatively associated with mortality from both heart disease and stroke. These associations were persistent in the model when adjusting simultaneously for RT, GS and other factors, but hazard ratios were attenuated. When we evaluated the associations by baseline age and gender, we found the greater hazard ratios for RT in the younger cohort, but no clear modification by age for GS. The interaction between RT and GS was statistically significant ( P = 0.012) for stroke mortality. In the stratified analyses divided using the age‐specific median value of RT or GS, the estimated hazard ratio of stroke mortality for RT was significant in participants with weak or strong GS but greater in the former, and for GS, it was only significant in participants with slow RT. Conclusion RT and GS, alone and in combination, predicted heart disease and stroke mortalities. Interventions for both cognitive function and physical function may be beneficial for the prevention of cardiovascular disease mortality.

Shimizu, Masaki↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗
DOE OSTI2017

DCYTB is a predictor of outcome in breast cancer that functions via iron-independent mechanisms

Background: Duodenal cytochrome b (DCYTB) is a ferrireductase that functions together with divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1) to mediate dietary iron reduction and uptake in the duodenum. DCYTB is also a member of a 16-gene iron regulatory gene signature (IRGS) that predicts metastasis-free survival in breast cancer patients. To better understand the relationship between DCYTB and breast cancer, we explored in detail the prognostic significance and molecular function of DCYTB in breast cancer. Methods: The prognostic significance of DCYTB expression was evaluated using publicly available microarray data. Signaling Pathway Impact Analysis (SPIA) of microarray data was used to identify potential novel functions of DCYTB. The role of DCYTB was assessed using immunohistochemistry and measurements of iron uptake, iron metabolism, and FAK signaling. Results: High DCYTB expression was associated with prolonged survival in two large independent cohorts, together totaling 1610 patients (cohort #1, p = 1.6e-11, n = 741; cohort #2, p = 1.2e-05, n = 869; log-rank test) as well as in the Gene expression-based Outcome for Breast cancer Online (GOBO) cohort (p < 1.0e-05, n = 1379). High DCYTB expression was also associated with increased survival in homogeneously treated groups of patients who received either tamoxifen or chemotherapy. Immunohistochemistry revealed that DCYTB is localized on the plasma membrane of breast epithelial cells, and that expression is dramatically reduced in high-grade tumors. Surprisingly, neither overexpression nor knockdown of DCYTB affected levels of ferritin H, transferrin receptor, labile iron or total cellular iron in breast cancer cells. Because SPIA pathway analysis of patient microarray data revealed an association between DCYTB and the focal adhesion pathway, we examined the influence of DCYTB on FAK activation in breast cancer cells. These experiments reveal that DCYTB reduces adhesion and activation of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) and its adapter protein paxillin. Conclusions: DCYTB is an important predictor of outcome and is associated with response to therapy in breast cancer patients. DCYTB does not affect intracellular iron in breast cancer cells. Instead, DCYTB may retard cancer progression by reducing activation of FAK, a kinase that plays a central role in tumor cell adhesion and metastasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Predictors and Cumulative Frequency of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in High and Intermediate LI-RADS Lesions: A Cohort Study from a Canadian Academic Institution

Background: The frequency and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within each liver imaging reporting and data system (LI-RADS) category remains unclear. We sought to estimate the cumulative frequency of HCC in LI-RADS observations of high/intermediate category and identify clinical/radiographic features associated with HCC. Methods: Our diagnostic imaging database was searched for computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging reports of patients with evidence of cirrhosis and liver observations. LI-RADS categories were determined by imaging review, while demographic and clinical outcomes were assigned by chart review. A composite outcome of clinical/radiographic confirmation of HCC was used. We used multivariable analysis to identify features associated with HCC, and competing risks regression to estimate the cumulative frequency of HCC in each category. Results: Our search returned 95 patients with 137 observations (LR2 = 4, LR3 = 53, LR4 = 37, and LR5 = 43). On multivariable analysis, increasing age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.76 per 10 years, p = 0.049), washout (HR 5.34, p < 0.002), and increasing size (size < 10 mm reference, 10–20 mm, HR 3.93, p = 0.014; size > 20 mm, HR 21.69, p < 0.001) were associated with HCC. Median time to diagnosis was 6.13 months (interquartile range [IQR] 4.6–13.1), 4.7 months (IQR 2.5–14.5), and 3.6 months (IQR 1.9–6.6) for LR3, 4, and 5 category observations, respectively. The cumulative frequency of HCC was 59.8% in LR3, 84.62% in LR4, and 99.84% in LR5, at last follow-up. Conclusion: The frequency of HCC within each LI-RADS category reflects the intended purpose, intermediate probability for LR3, probable HCC for LR4, and definite HCC for LR5.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environmental predictors of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) sputum positivity among persons with cystic fibrosis in the state of Florida

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are opportunistic human pathogens that are commonly found in soil and water, and exposure to these organisms may cause pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease. Persons with cystic fibrosis (CF) are at high risk for developing pulmonary NTM infections, and studies have shown that prolonged exposure to certain environments can increase the risk of pulmonary NTM. It is therefore important to determine the risk associated with different geographic areas. Using annualized registry data obtained from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry for 2010 through 2017, we conducted a geospatial analysis of NTM infections among persons with CF in Florida. A Bernoulli model in SaTScan was used to identify clustering of ZIP codes with higher than expected numbers of NTM culture positive individuals. Generalized linear mixed models with a binomial distribution were used to test the association of environmental variables and NTM culture positivity. We identified a significant cluster of M . abscessus and predictors of NTM sputum positivity, including annual precipitation and soil mineral levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effects of Omitting Non-confounding Predictors From General Relative-Risk Models for Binary Outcomes

The effects, in terms of bias and precision, of omitting non-confounding predictive covariates from generalized linear models have been well studied, and it is known that such omission results in attenuation bias but increased precision with logistic regression. However, many epidemiologic risk analyses utilize alternative models that are not based on a linear predictor, and the effect of omitting non-confounding predictive covariates from such models has not been characterized. We employed simulation to study the effects on risk estimation of omitting non-confounding predictive covariates from an excess relative risk (ERR) model and a general additive-multiplicative relative-risk mixture model for binary outcome data in a case-control setting. We also compared the results to the effects with ordinary logistic regression. For these commonly employed alternative relative-risk models, the bias was similar to that with logistic regression when the risk was small. More generally, the bias and standard error of the risk-parameter estimates demonstrated patterns that are similar to those with logistic regression, but with greater magnitude depending on the true value of the risk. The magnitude of bias and standard error had little relation to study size or underlying disease prevalence. Prior conclusions regarding omitted covariates in logistic regression models can be qualitatively applied to the ERR and the general additive-multiplicative relative-risk mixture model without substantial change. Quantitatively, however, these alternative models may have slightly greater omitted-covariate bias, depending on the magnitude of the true risk being estimated.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Macro- and Microscale Preservation in Vertebrate Fossils as Predictors for Molecular Preservation in Fluvial Environments

Exceptionally preserved fossils retain soft tissues and often the biomolecules that were present in an animal during its life. The majority of terrestrial vertebrate fossils are not traditionally considered exceptionally preserved, with fossils falling on a spectrum ranging from very well-preserved to poorly preserved when considering completeness, morphology and the presence of microstructures. Within this variability of anatomical preservation, high-quality macro-scale preservation (e.g., articulated skeletons) may not be reflected in molecular-scale preservation (i.e., biomolecules). Excavation of the Hayden Quarry (HQ; Chinle Formation, Ghost Ranch, NM, USA) has resulted in the recovery of thousands of fossilized vertebrate specimens. This has contributed greatly to our knowledge of early dinosaur evolution and paleoenvironmental conditions during the Late Triassic Period (~212 Ma). The number of specimens, completeness of skeletons and fidelity of osteohistological microstructures preserved in the bone all demonstrate the remarkable quality of the fossils preserved at this locality. Because the Hayden Quarry is an excellent example of good preservation in a fluvial environment, we have tested different fossil types (i.e., bone, tooth, coprolite) to examine the molecular preservation and overall taphonomy of the HQ to determine how different scales of preservation vary within a single locality. We used multiple high-resolution mass spectrometry techniques (TOF-SIMS, GC-MS, FT-ICR MS) to compare the fossils to unaltered bone from extant vertebrates, experimentally matured bone, and younger dinosaurian skeletal material from other fluvial environments. FT-ICR MS provides detailed molecular information about complex mixtures, and TOF-SIMS has high elemental spatial sensitivity. Using these techniques, we did not find convincing evidence of a molecular signal that can be confidently interpreted as endogenous, indicating that very good macro- and microscale preservation are not necessarily good predictors of molecular preservation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lifting MGARD: Construction of (pre)wavelets on the interval using polynomial predictors of arbitrary order

MGARD (MultiGrid Adaptive Reduction of Data) is an algorithm for compressing and refactoring scientific data, based on the theory of multigrid methods. The core algorithm is built around stable multilevel decompositions of conforming piecewise linear $C^0$ finite element spaces, enabling accurate error control in various norms and derived quantities of interest. In this work, we extend this construction to arbitrary order Lagrange finite elements $\mathbb{Q}_p$, $p \geq 0$, and propose a reformulation of the algorithm as a lifting scheme with polynomial predictors of arbitrary order. Additionally, a new formulation using a compactly supported wavelet basis is discussed, and an explicit construction of the proposed wavelet transform for uniform dyadic grids is described.

Reshniak, Viktor [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2017

The interaction between nitrogen and phosphorous is a strong predictor of intra-plant variation in nitrogen isotope composition in a desert species

Understanding intra-plant variations in δ 15 N is essential for fully utilizing the potential of δ 15 N as an integrator of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycle and as an indicator of the relative limitation of N and phosphorous (P) on plant growth. Studying such variations can also yield insights into N metabolism by plant as a whole or by specific organs. However, few researchers have systematically evaluated intra-plant variations in δ 15 N and their relationships with organ nutrient contents. We excavated whole plant architectures of Nitraria tangutorum Bobrov, a C 3 species of vital regional ecological importance, in two deserts in northwestern China. We systematically and simultaneously measured N isotope ratios and N and P contents of different parts of the excavated plants. We found that intra-plant variations in δ 15 N of N. tangutorum were positively correlated with corresponding organ N and P contents. However, it was the N × P interaction, not N and P individually or their linear combination, that was the strongest predictor of intra-plant δ 15 N. Additionally, we showed that root δ 15 N increased with depth into soil, a pattern similar to profiles of soil δ 15 N reported by previous studies in different ecosystems. We hypothesized that the strong positive intra-plant δ 15 N–N and P relationships are caused by three processes acting in conjunction: (1) N and P content-driven fractionating exchanges of ammonia between leaves and the atmosphere (volatilization) during photorespiration, (2) resorption and remobilization of N and P from senescing leaves, and (3) mixture of the re-translocated foliar N and P with existing pools in stems and roots. To test our hypothesis, future studies should investigate plant N volatilization and associated isotope fractionation and intra-plant variations in δ 15 N in different species across ecosystems and climates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗